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UPSTART HOLDINGS INC (UPST) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:UPST - Nasdaq - US91680M1071 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

61.69  -4.98 (-7.47%)

After market: 61.69 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

3

We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to UPST. UPST was compared to 53 industry peers in the Consumer Finance industry. The financial health of UPST is average, but there are quite some concerns on its profitability. UPST is valued quite expensive, but it does show an excellent growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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1

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

UPST had negative earnings in the past year.
In the past year UPST had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: UPST reported negative net income in multiple years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: UPST reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
UPST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFUPST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -200M -400M -600M

1.2 Ratios

UPST has a worse Return On Assets (-5.43%) than 88.46% of its industry peers.
UPST's Return On Equity of -20.31% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. UPST is outperformed by 82.69% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -5.43%
ROE -20.31%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)-7.65%
ROA(5y)-2.85%
ROE(3y)-24.76%
ROE(5y)-11.1%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
UPST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICUPST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 -10 -20 -30

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 75.18%, UPST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 71.15% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of UPST has declined.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for UPST so they could not be analyzed.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 75.18%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.13%
GM growth 5Y-2.29%
UPST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsUPST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 -40 60 80

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4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

UPST does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, UPST has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for UPST has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for UPST is higher compared to a year ago.
UPST Yearly Shares OutstandingUPST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M
UPST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsUPST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.2 Solvency

UPST has an Altman-Z score of 2.21. This is not the best score and indicates that UPST is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.21, UPST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of UPST is 7.95, which is on the high side as it means it would take UPST, 7.95 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
UPST has a Debt to FCF ratio (7.95) which is in line with its industry peers.
UPST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.21. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 2.21, UPST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.21
Debt/FCF 7.95
Altman-Z 2.21
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC7.92%
UPST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFUPST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M -500M 1B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 2.68 indicates that UPST has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.68, UPST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.08% of the companies in the same industry.
UPST has a Quick Ratio of 2.68. This indicates that UPST is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of UPST (2.68) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.68
Quick Ratio 2.68
UPST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesUPST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 50.88% over the past year.
UPST shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 16.17%.
UPST shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 31.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)50.88%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%336.36%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.17%
Revenue growth 3Y-7.39%
Revenue growth 5Y31.84%
Sales Q2Q%30.38%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 86.05% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
UPST is expected to show a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 30.79% yearly.
EPS Next Y605.75%
EPS Next 2Y220.4%
EPS Next 3Y137.18%
EPS Next 5Y86.05%
Revenue Next Year62.17%
Revenue Next 2Y42.1%
Revenue Next 3Y33.93%
Revenue Next 5Y30.79%

3.3 Evolution

The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
UPST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesUPST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 500M 1B 1.5B
UPST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesUPST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 1 2 3

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

UPST reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 43.56, which means the current valuation is very expensive for UPST.
73.08% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than UPST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
UPST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 22.66.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 43.56
UPST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsUPST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 -50 -100 -150 -200

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of UPST indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: UPST is more expensive than 67.31% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 32.7
EV/EBITDA N/A
UPST Per share dataUPST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

UPST's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
UPST's earnings are expected to grow with 137.18% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y220.4%
EPS Next 3Y137.18%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for UPST!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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UPSTART HOLDINGS INC

NASDAQ:UPST (3/3/2025, 4:00:54 PM)

After market: 61.69 0 (0%)

61.69

-4.98 (-7.47%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryConsumer Finance
Earnings (Last)02-11 2025-02-11/amc
Earnings (Next)05-05 2025-05-05/amc
Inst Owners63.63%
Inst Owner Change17%
Ins Owners12.38%
Ins Owner Change1.99%
Market Cap5.77B
Analysts55.24
Price Target74.75 (21.17%)
Short Float %21.9%
Short Ratio2.97
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)363.64%
Min EPS beat(2)59.83%
Max EPS beat(2)667.46%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)201.51%
Min EPS beat(4)21.24%
Max EPS beat(4)667.46%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)107.27%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)53.96%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)61.71%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)8.33%
Min Revenue beat(2)7.29%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.37%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.34%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.37%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.7%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.24%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.54%
PT rev (1m)27.16%
PT rev (3m)57.72%
EPS NQ rev (1m)824.44%
EPS NQ rev (3m)629.61%
EPS NY rev (1m)155.03%
EPS NY rev (3m)185.22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)9.19%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)9.41%
Revenue NY rev (1m)19.82%
Revenue NY rev (3m)20.78%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 43.56
P/S 9.06
P/FCF 32.7
P/OCF 30.95
P/B 9.11
P/tB 10.36
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)-0.28
EYN/A
EPS(NY)1.42
Fwd EY2.3%
FCF(TTM)1.89
FCFY3.06%
OCF(TTM)1.99
OCFY3.23%
SpS6.81
BVpS6.77
TBVpS5.96
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -5.43%
ROE -20.31%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 75.18%
FCFM 27.7%
ROA(3y)-7.65%
ROA(5y)-2.85%
ROE(3y)-24.76%
ROE(5y)-11.1%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.13%
GM growth 5Y-2.29%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.27
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.21
Debt/FCF 7.95
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr 48.62%
Cap/Sales 1.57%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 2.68
Quick Ratio 2.68
Altman-Z 2.21
F-Score6
WACC7.92%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)88.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)142.32%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.15%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.16%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)50.88%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%336.36%
EPS Next Y605.75%
EPS Next 2Y220.4%
EPS Next 3Y137.18%
EPS Next 5Y86.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.17%
Revenue growth 3Y-7.39%
Revenue growth 5Y31.84%
Sales Q2Q%30.38%
Revenue Next Year62.17%
Revenue Next 2Y42.1%
Revenue Next 3Y33.93%
Revenue Next 5Y30.79%
EBIT growth 1Y22.17%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year143.99%
EBIT Next 3Y50.56%
EBIT Next 5Y39.67%
FCF growth 1Y242.44%
FCF growth 3Y4.78%
FCF growth 5Y46.31%
OCF growth 1Y266.8%
OCF growth 3Y3.43%
OCF growth 5Y42.6%