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UPSTART HOLDINGS INC (UPST) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:UPST - Nasdaq - US91680M1071 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

67.32  +1.25 (+1.89%)

After market: 67.3 -0.02 (-0.03%)

Fundamental Rating

3

We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to UPST. UPST was compared to 53 industry peers in the Consumer Finance industry. The financial health of UPST is average, but there are quite some concerns on its profitability. UPST is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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1

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year UPST has reported negative net income.
In the past year UPST had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: UPST reported negative net income in multiple years.
In multiple years UPST reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
UPST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFUPST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 -200M -400M -600M

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of UPST (-9.30%) is worse than 90.38% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of -28.25%, UPST is not doing good in the industry: 86.54% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -9.3%
ROE -28.25%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)-3.36%
ROA(5y)-1.79%
ROE(3y)-12.4%
ROE(5y)-7.14%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
UPST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICUPST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10 -10 -20 -30

1.3 Margins

UPST has a better Gross Margin (72.48%) than 69.23% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of UPST has declined.
UPST does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 72.48%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.41%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
UPST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsUPST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40 -40 60 80

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4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

UPST does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for UPST has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for UPST has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, UPST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
UPST Yearly Shares OutstandingUPST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20M 40M 60M 80M
UPST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsUPST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.70 indicates that UPST is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 2.70, UPST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.69% of the companies in the same industry.
UPST has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.11. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as UPST would need 6.11 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 6.11, UPST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 51.92% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.49 is on the high side and indicates that UPST has dependencies on debt financing.
UPST has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.49. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: UPST outperforms 50.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.49
Debt/FCF 6.11
Altman-Z 2.7
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.29%
UPST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFUPST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 500M -500M 1B

2.3 Liquidity

UPST has a Current Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that UPST is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
UPST's Current ratio of 1.62 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. UPST outperforms 61.54% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that UPST should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.62, UPST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.54% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
UPST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesUPST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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6

3. Growth

3.1 Past

UPST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 8.45%, which is quite good.
The Revenue has decreased by -0.95% in the past year.
UPST shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 42.14% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-20%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.95%
Revenue growth 3Y30.97%
Revenue growth 5Y42.14%
Sales Q2Q%24.55%

3.2 Future

UPST is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 47.17% yearly.
UPST is expected to show a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 28.07% yearly.
EPS Next Y26.63%
EPS Next 2Y69.48%
EPS Next 3Y62.38%
EPS Next 5Y47.17%
Revenue Next Year17.78%
Revenue Next 2Y26.25%
Revenue Next 3Y24.13%
Revenue Next 5Y28.07%

3.3 Evolution

Although the future Revenue growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
UPST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesUPST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 500M 1B 1.5B
UPST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesUPST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 1 2

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1

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for UPST. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
UPST is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 135.36.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of UPST indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: UPST is more expensive than 76.92% of the companies listed in the same industry.
UPST is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 93.88, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 135.36
UPST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsUPST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 50 -50 100 -100

4.2 Price Multiples

67.31% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than UPST, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 42.27
EV/EBITDA N/A
UPST Per share dataUPST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates UPST does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as UPST's earnings are expected to grow with 62.38% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y69.48%
EPS Next 3Y62.38%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for UPST!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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UPSTART HOLDINGS INC

NASDAQ:UPST (1/30/2025, 6:02:20 PM)

After market: 67.3 -0.02 (-0.03%)

67.32

+1.25 (+1.89%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryConsumer Finance
Earnings (Last)11-07 2024-11-07/amc
Earnings (Next)02-11 2025-02-11/amc
Inst Owners45.5%
Inst Owner Change-0.57%
Ins Owners12.86%
Ins Owner Change-1.32%
Market Cap6.14B
Analysts55.24
Price Target58.51 (-13.09%)
Short Float %24.89%
Short Ratio2.78
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)58.67%
Min EPS beat(2)57.52%
Max EPS beat(2)59.83%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)40.58%
Min EPS beat(4)21.24%
Max EPS beat(4)59.83%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)29.87%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)4.32%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)38.97%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)4.92%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.47%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.37%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.32%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.34%
Max Revenue beat(4)11.09%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.56%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.24%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.88%
PT rev (1m)14.33%
PT rev (3m)94.72%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)30.62%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)39.91%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)21.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)5.51%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 135.36
P/S 11.01
P/FCF 42.27
P/OCF 39.99
P/B 10.31
P/tB 11.84
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)-0.65
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.5
Fwd EY0.74%
FCF(TTM)1.59
FCFY2.37%
OCF(TTM)1.68
OCFY2.5%
SpS6.12
BVpS6.53
TBVpS5.69
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -9.3%
ROE -28.25%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 72.48%
FCFM 26.05%
ROA(3y)-3.36%
ROA(5y)-1.79%
ROE(3y)-12.4%
ROE(5y)-7.14%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-5.41%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.31
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.49
Debt/FCF 6.11
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr 33.09%
Cap/Sales 1.48%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
Altman-Z 2.7
F-Score8
WACC8.29%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)139.83%
Cap/Depr(5y)265.1%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.25%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.51%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-20%
EPS Next Y26.63%
EPS Next 2Y69.48%
EPS Next 3Y62.38%
EPS Next 5Y47.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.95%
Revenue growth 3Y30.97%
Revenue growth 5Y42.14%
Sales Q2Q%24.55%
Revenue Next Year17.78%
Revenue Next 2Y26.25%
Revenue Next 3Y24.13%
Revenue Next 5Y28.07%
EBIT growth 1Y3.92%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year89.08%
EBIT Next 3Y41.9%
EBIT Next 5Y28.86%
FCF growth 1Y131.83%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y135.47%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A