ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ZTO - US98980A1051 - ADR
18.94 USD
-0.07 (-0.37%)
18.94 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to ZTO. ZTO was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. ZTO scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination. These ratings could make ZTO a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ZTO was profitable.
In the past year ZTO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years ZTO has always been profitable.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 9.21%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 13.57%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of ZTO (11.40%) is better than 82.61% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ZTO is in line with the industry average of 11.54%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(11.40%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
ZTO's Profit Margin of 18.81% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ZTO has a better Operating Margin (24.13%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 27.48%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ZTO has more shares outstanding
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.66 indicates that ZTO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO has a better Altman-Z score (3.66) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO is 1.76, which is an excellent value as it means it would take ZTO, only 1.76 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
ZTO has a better Debt to FCF ratio (1.76) than 91.30% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
ZTO's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.17 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.66 |
ROIC/WACC2.57
WACC4.43%
2.3 Liquidity
ZTO has a Current Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ZTO has a worse Current ratio (1.21) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.21 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ZTO (1.21) is worse than 65.22% of its industry peers.
ZTO does not score too well on the current and quick ratio evaluation. However, as it has excellent solvency and profitability, these ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ZTO have decreased by -8.22% in the last year.
ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.77% yearly.
Looking at the last year, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 14.70% in the last year.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.90% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 6.15% on average over the next years.
ZTO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 8.28% yearly.
EPS Next Y-8.81%
EPS Next 2Y2.65%
EPS Next 3Y6.01%
EPS Next 5Y6.15%
Revenue Next Year12.91%
Revenue Next 2Y12.6%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y8.28%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 12.06, which indicates a correct valuation of ZTO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.89, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.22, the valuation of ZTO can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 34.59. ZTO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.22 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ZTO indicates a rather cheap valuation: ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.19 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.25 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of ZTO may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.55
EPS Next 2Y2.65%
EPS Next 3Y6.01%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.36%, ZTO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.58, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, ZTO pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.36% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y2.65%
EPS Next 3Y6.01%
18.94
-0.07 (-0.37%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners14.67%
Inst Owner Change0.8%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.01B
Revenue(TTM)46.32B
Net Income(TTM)8.71B
Analysts86.67
Price Target25.84 (36.43%)
Short Float %4.11%
Short Ratio10.17
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.36% |
Yearly Dividend1.04
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-17.1%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)0.11%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.08%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)0.01%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)3.17%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.38%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.71%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)-0.84%
PT rev (3m)3.37%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.72%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.4%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.93%
EPS NY rev (3m)-16.57%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.66%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.45%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.7%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.22 | ||
| P/S | 2.3 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.19 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.19 | ||
| P/B | 1.66 | ||
| P/tB | 1.98 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.25 |
EPS(TTM)1.57
EY8.29%
EPS(NY)1.85
Fwd EY9.79%
FCF(TTM)1.86
FCFY9.81%
OCF(TTM)1.86
OCFY9.81%
SpS8.24
BVpS11.42
TBVpS9.56
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.55
Graham Number20.08
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROCE | 16.89% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 17.36% | ||
| ROICexgc | 21.86% | ||
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% | ||
| FCFM | 22.56% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.79 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 73.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 119.96% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.66 |
F-Score5
WACC4.43%
ROIC/WACC2.57
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
EPS Next Y-8.81%
EPS Next 2Y2.65%
EPS Next 3Y6.01%
EPS Next 5Y6.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
Revenue Next Year12.91%
Revenue Next 2Y12.6%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y8.28%
EBIT growth 1Y4.83%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year24.25%
EBIT Next 3Y16.41%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y21.64%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.19%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR / ZTO FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to ZTO.
What is the valuation status of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of ZTO stock?
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 12.06 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.66.
What is the financial health of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
The financial health rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 7 / 10.