ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO)
US98980A1051 - ADR
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to ZTO. ZTO was compared to 20 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While ZTO belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. ZTO scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination. This makes ZTO very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ZTO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years ZTO has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years ZTO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO's Return On Assets of 9.41% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 84.21% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of ZTO (14.19%) is better than 73.68% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a better Return On Invested Capital (10.88%) than 73.68% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ZTO is below the industry average of 13.88%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (10.88%) for ZTO is above the 3 year average (9.42%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.19% | ||
| ROIC | 10.88% |
ROA(3y)8.71%
ROA(5y)9.16%
ROE(3y)12.34%
ROE(5y)12.13%
ROIC(3y)9.42%
ROIC(5y)9.41%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 21.24%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 26.40%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
The Gross Margin of ZTO (30.85%) is better than 68.42% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.4% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 21.24% | ||
| GM | 30.85% |
OM growth 3Y11.37%
OM growth 5Y1.14%
PM growth 3Y10.02%
PM growth 5Y-1.77%
GM growth 3Y9.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), ZTO is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ZTO is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 3.75. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of ZTO (3.75) is better than 68.42% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.73. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.73 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 1.73, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.29 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
ZTO's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.29 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 63.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.75 |
ROIC/WACC1.52
WACC7.15%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.26 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
ZTO's Current ratio of 1.26 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 52.63% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.26 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ZTO (1.26) is better than 63.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.26 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 10.79% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 12.36% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 8.60% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 16.89% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)10.79%
EPS 3Y24.41%
EPS 5Y12.36%
EPS Q2Q%4.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.6%
Revenue growth 3Y15.07%
Revenue growth 5Y16.89%
Sales Q2Q%21.33%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 7.76% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.87% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y14.58%
EPS Next 2Y17.05%
EPS Next 3Y15.88%
EPS Next 5Y7.76%
Revenue Next Year9.39%
Revenue Next 2Y10.52%
Revenue Next 3Y10.46%
Revenue Next 5Y5.87%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 11.80, the valuation of ZTO can be described as reasonable.
ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.96, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
ZTO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.47.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ZTO to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.82), we can say ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.47 |
4.2 Price Multiples
84.21% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
ZTO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 94.74% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11.32 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.9 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of ZTO may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ZTO's earnings are expected to grow with 15.88% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.81
PEG (5Y)0.95
EPS Next 2Y17.05%
EPS Next 3Y15.88%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.67%, ZTO is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.65, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 94.74% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.23, ZTO pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.67% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DP0%
EPS Next 2Y17.05%
EPS Next 3Y15.88%
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR
NYSE:ZTO (11/21/2024, 6:40:00 PM)
After market: 19.82 0 (0%)19.82
-0.18 (-0.9%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap15.94B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.67% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
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EPS beat(16)
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Revenue beat(2)
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EPS NQ rev (3m)
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EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
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Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.47 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)0.81
PEG (5Y)0.95
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.41% | ||
| ROE | 14.19% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 26.4% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 21.24% | ||
| GM | 30.85% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.29 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)10.79%
EPS 3Y24.41%
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y14.58%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.6%
Revenue growth 3Y15.07%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y