ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ZTO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US98980A1051 - ADR - Currency: USD
ZTO gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While ZTO has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on ZTO.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ZTO was profitable.
In the past year ZTO had a positive cash flow from operations.
ZTO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO's Return On Assets of 9.24% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 89.47% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Return On Equity of 14.24%. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 73.68% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Return On Invested Capital of 12.34%. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 78.95% of its industry peers.
ZTO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 9.42%. This is in line with the industry average of 11.36%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (12.34%) for ZTO is above the 3 year average (9.42%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.24% | ||
| ROE | 14.24% | ||
| ROIC | 12.34% |
ROA(3y)8.71%
ROA(5y)9.16%
ROE(3y)12.34%
ROE(5y)12.13%
ROIC(3y)9.42%
ROIC(5y)9.41%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 20.55%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
ZTO has a better Operating Margin (26.39%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 31.17%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.55% | ||
| GM | 31.17% |
OM growth 3Y11.37%
OM growth 5Y1.14%
PM growth 3Y10.02%
PM growth 5Y-1.77%
GM growth 3Y9.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), ZTO is creating some value.
ZTO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ZTO has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, ZTO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 3.58. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 3.58, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO is 3.02, which is a good value as it means it would take ZTO, 3.02 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO (3.02) is better than 78.95% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.18, ZTO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.16% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.02 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.58 |
ROIC/WACC1.78
WACC6.93%
2.3 Liquidity
ZTO has a Current Ratio of 0.96. This is a bad value and indicates that ZTO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ZTO has a Current ratio of 0.96. This is in the lower half of the industry: ZTO underperforms 68.42% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.96 indicates that ZTO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ZTO has a worse Quick ratio (0.96) than 68.42% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.96 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ZTO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 10.14%, which is quite good.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 12.36% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 11.44% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 16.89% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)10.14%
EPS 3Y24.41%
EPS 5Y12.36%
EPS Q2Q%2.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.44%
Revenue growth 3Y15.07%
Revenue growth 5Y16.89%
Sales Q2Q%17.62%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.34% on average per year.
ZTO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.62% yearly.
EPS Next Y13.16%
EPS Next 2Y13%
EPS Next 3Y13%
EPS Next 5Y8.34%
Revenue Next Year8.1%
Revenue Next 2Y9.21%
Revenue Next 3Y9.6%
Revenue Next 5Y6.62%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
ZTO is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.44.
ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.63. ZTO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.69, the valuation of ZTO can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 94.74% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ZTO to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.68), we can say ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.69 |
4.2 Price Multiples
ZTO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ZTO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 78.95% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.64 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.67 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
ZTO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
ZTO's earnings are expected to grow with 13.00% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)1.01
EPS Next 2Y13%
EPS Next 3Y13%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.85%, ZTO is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.82, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 94.74% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.29.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.85% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
24.03% of the earnings are spent on dividend by ZTO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP24.03%
EPS Next 2Y13%
EPS Next 3Y13%
20.78
+0.19 (+0.92%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners9.37%
Inst Owner Change-13.52%
Ins Owners0.2%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap16.71B
Analysts86.32
Price Target27.39 (31.81%)
Short Float %3.64%
Short Ratio6.23
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.85% |
Yearly Dividend2.57
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP24.03%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)16.08%
Min EPS beat(2)0.11%
Max EPS beat(2)32.05%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.65%
Min EPS beat(4)-29.1%
Max EPS beat(4)32.05%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)4.13%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)8.36%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)3.84%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.52%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.16%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.12%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.72%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.78%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.92%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.54%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.6%
PT rev (1m)-2.57%
PT rev (3m)-8.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.69%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.55%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.92%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.42%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.55%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.23%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.18%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.69 | ||
| P/S | 2.89 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.64 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.67 | ||
| P/B | 2 | ||
| P/tB | 2.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.67 |
EPS(TTM)1.67
EY8.04%
EPS(NY)1.94
Fwd EY9.35%
FCF(TTM)1.01
FCFY4.84%
OCF(TTM)2.15
OCFY10.34%
SpS7.19
BVpS10.38
TBVpS8.61
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)1.01
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.24% | ||
| ROE | 14.24% | ||
| ROCE | 17.86% | ||
| ROIC | 12.34% | ||
| ROICexc | 18% | ||
| ROICexgc | 22.72% | ||
| OM | 26.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.55% | ||
| GM | 31.17% | ||
| FCFM | 14% |
ROA(3y)8.71%
ROA(5y)9.16%
ROE(3y)12.34%
ROE(5y)12.13%
ROIC(3y)9.42%
ROIC(5y)9.41%
ROICexc(3y)12.6%
ROICexc(5y)13.73%
ROICexgc(3y)15.74%
ROICexgc(5y)18.04%
ROCE(3y)12.71%
ROCE(5y)12.32%
ROICexcg growth 3Y4.32%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-12.96%
ROICexc growth 3Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.73%
OM growth 3Y11.37%
OM growth 5Y1.14%
PM growth 3Y10.02%
PM growth 5Y-1.77%
GM growth 3Y9.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.02 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.77 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 68.12% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.58 |
F-Score6
WACC6.93%
ROIC/WACC1.78
Cap/Depr(3y)309.8%
Cap/Depr(5y)368.6%
Cap/Sales(3y)23%
Cap/Sales(5y)25.83%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)10.14%
EPS 3Y24.41%
EPS 5Y12.36%
EPS Q2Q%2.11%
EPS Next Y13.16%
EPS Next 2Y13%
EPS Next 3Y13%
EPS Next 5Y8.34%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.44%
Revenue growth 3Y15.07%
Revenue growth 5Y16.89%
Sales Q2Q%17.62%
Revenue Next Year8.1%
Revenue Next 2Y9.21%
Revenue Next 3Y9.6%
Revenue Next 5Y6.62%
EBIT growth 1Y14.07%
EBIT growth 3Y28.16%
EBIT growth 5Y18.23%
EBIT Next Year52.71%
EBIT Next 3Y23.94%
EBIT Next 5Y15.19%
FCF growth 1Y-45.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y73.73%
OCF growth 1Y16.89%
OCF growth 3Y39.23%
OCF growth 5Y24.85%