ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ZTO - US98980A1051 - ADR
19.245 USD
+0.19 (+0.97%)
Taking everything into account, ZTO scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ZTO was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. ZTO is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination! This makes ZTO very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ZTO was profitable.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO has been profitable.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO has a better Return On Assets (9.21%) than 86.96% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 13.57%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 11.40%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ZTO is in line with the industry average of 12.53%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(11.40%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
ZTO's Profit Margin of 18.81% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ZTO has a better Operating Margin (24.13%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 27.48%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), ZTO is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ZTO has less shares outstanding
ZTO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.69 indicates that ZTO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO has a better Altman-Z score (3.69) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.76. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.76 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO (1.76) is better than 91.30% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
ZTO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.17. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.69 |
ROIC/WACC2.56
WACC4.45%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.21 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.21, ZTO is doing worse than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.21 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
ZTO has a worse Quick ratio (1.21) than 60.87% of its industry peers.
The current and quick ratio evaluation for ZTO is rather negative, while it does have excellent solvency and profitability. These ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ZTO shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -8.22%.
ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.77% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 14.70% in the past year. This is quite good.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.90% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.05% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-4.09%
EPS Next 2Y4.08%
EPS Next 3Y6.44%
EPS Next 5Y6.05%
Revenue Next Year12.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.08%
Revenue Next 5Y8.18%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 12.42 indicates a correct valuation of ZTO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.30, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.23 indicates a reasonable valuation of ZTO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ZTO indicates a rather cheap valuation: ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.73. ZTO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.42 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.23 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ZTO indicates a rather cheap valuation: ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.49 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.36 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.6
EPS Next 2Y4.08%
EPS Next 3Y6.44%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.41%, ZTO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.75. ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.41% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y4.08%
EPS Next 3Y6.44%
NYSE:ZTO (9/15/2025, 2:43:56 PM)
19.245
+0.19 (+0.97%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners12.7%
Inst Owner Change-33.91%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.39B
Analysts86.67
Price Target25.47 (32.35%)
Short Float %3.04%
Short Ratio6.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.41% |
Yearly Dividend1.02
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-17.1%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)0.11%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.08%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)0.01%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)3.17%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.38%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.71%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)3.92%
PT rev (3m)2.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.47%
EPS NQ rev (3m)N/A
EPS NY rev (1m)-13.05%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.05%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-2.66%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A
Revenue NY rev (1m)-3.14%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.36%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.42 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.23 | ||
| P/S | 2.37 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.49 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.49 | ||
| P/B | 1.71 | ||
| P/tB | 2.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.36 |
EPS(TTM)1.55
EY8.05%
EPS(NY)1.88
Fwd EY9.77%
FCF(TTM)1.83
FCFY9.53%
OCF(TTM)1.83
OCFY9.53%
SpS8.13
BVpS11.27
TBVpS9.44
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.6
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROCE | 16.89% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 17.36% | ||
| ROICexgc | 21.86% | ||
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% | ||
| FCFM | 22.56% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.79 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 73.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 119.96% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.69 |
F-Score5
WACC4.45%
ROIC/WACC2.56
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
EPS Next Y-4.09%
EPS Next 2Y4.08%
EPS Next 3Y6.44%
EPS Next 5Y6.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
Revenue Next Year12.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.08%
Revenue Next 5Y8.18%
EBIT growth 1Y4.83%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year37.59%
EBIT Next 3Y18.86%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y21.64%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.19%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%