ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ZTO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US98980A1051 - ADR - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to ZTO. ZTO was compared to 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on ZTO. These ratings could make ZTO a good candidate for value and quality investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ZTO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO's Return On Assets of 10.07% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 90.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Return On Equity of 15.08% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a better Return On Invested Capital (12.79%) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ZTO is below the industry average of 12.73%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (12.79%) for ZTO is above the 3 year average (10.66%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 20.76%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ZTO has a Operating Margin of 26.35%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 29.65%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), ZTO is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ZTO has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for ZTO is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.51 indicates that ZTO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO's Altman-Z score of 3.51 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.41. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.41 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ZTO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 1.41. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 90.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.15. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
ZTO's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.15 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 59.09% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.51 |
ROIC/WACC2.93
WACC4.37%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.05 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.05, ZTO is not doing good in the industry: 77.27% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.05. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ZTO (1.05) is worse than 77.27% of its industry peers.
The current and quick ratio evaluation for ZTO is rather negative, while it does have excellent solvency and profitability. These ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ZTO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 21.61%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past 5 years, ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.77% on average per year.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 14.76%.
Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.61%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%39.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.76%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%9.35%
3.2 Future
ZTO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 5.84% yearly.
ZTO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 9.68% yearly.
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.84%
Revenue Next Year17.53%
Revenue Next 2Y15.15%
Revenue Next 3Y14.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.68%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
ZTO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 9.86.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.45, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.39, the valuation of ZTO can be described as very reasonable.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
ZTO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.90, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.86 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.39 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 95.45% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 95.45% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)1.27
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.84%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.88. ZTO pays more dividend than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.84% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
18.05
+0.01 (+0.06%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners12.7%
Inst Owner Change-10.41%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap14.41B
Analysts85.56
Price Target24.27 (34.46%)
Short Float %2.92%
Short Ratio5.05
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.84% |
Yearly Dividend1.02
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-14.87%
Min EPS beat(2)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.6%
Min EPS beat(4)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(4)32.05%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.86%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.52%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)4.58%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.66%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.08%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.14%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.4%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.62%
PT rev (1m)-10.35%
PT rev (3m)-8.39%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.58%
EPS NQ rev (3m)N/A
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.58%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.06%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)6.72%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.86 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.39 | ||
| P/S | 2.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.77 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.77 | ||
| P/B | 1.66 | ||
| P/tB | 2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.14 |
EPS(TTM)1.83
EY10.14%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY11.91%
FCF(TTM)2.06
FCFY11.4%
OCF(TTM)2.06
OCFY11.4%
SpS7.91
BVpS10.88
TBVpS9.04
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)1.27
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROCE | 18.59% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% | ||
| ROICexc | 18.63% | ||
| ROICexgc | 23.57% | ||
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% | ||
| FCFM | 26.01% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.62 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 125.33% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.51 |
F-Score6
WACC4.37%
ROIC/WACC2.93
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.61%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%39.43%
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.76%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%9.35%
Revenue Next Year17.53%
Revenue Next 2Y15.15%
Revenue Next 3Y14.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.68%
EBIT growth 1Y15.41%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year37.59%
EBIT Next 3Y18.86%
EBIT Next 5Y13.36%
FCF growth 1Y-10.3%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-10.3%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%