ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ZTO - US98980A1051 - ADR
20.89 USD
-0.16 (-0.76%)
20.89 USD
0 (0%)
Overall ZTO gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. We evaluated ZTO against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making ZTO a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. ZTO may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth These ratings could make ZTO a good candidate for value and quality investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ZTO was profitable.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
ZTO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years ZTO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 9.76%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 13.66%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO has a Return On Invested Capital of 10.83%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 82.61% of its industry peers.
ZTO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.66%. This is in line with the industry average of 12.34%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(10.83%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.76% | ||
| ROE | 13.66% | ||
| ROIC | 10.83% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
ZTO's Profit Margin of 18.60% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 22.60%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
ZTO's Gross Margin of 25.99% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 22.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.6% | ||
| GM | 25.99% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ZTO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
ZTO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
ZTO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 4.41. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO has a better Altman-Z score (4.41) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.13. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.13 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO (1.13) is better than 95.65% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
ZTO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.18. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ZTO outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.41 |
ROIC/WACC2.36
WACC4.58%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.38 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.38, ZTO is not doing good in the industry: 60.87% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.38. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ZTO (1.38) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ZTO does not score too well on the current and quick ratio evaluation. However, as it has excellent solvency and profitability, these ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.38 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ZTO shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -6.97%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.77% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 13.17% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 6.86% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 9.01% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-4.36%
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
EPS Next 5Y6.86%
Revenue Next Year13.07%
Revenue Next 2Y12.22%
Revenue Next 3Y11.47%
Revenue Next 5Y9.01%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 13.14, the valuation of ZTO can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.28, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.07, the valuation of ZTO can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.52.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.14 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.07 |
4.2 Price Multiples
95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ZTO indicates a rather cheap valuation: ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11.07 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.58 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.69
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.08%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.45. ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.31.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
20.89
-0.16 (-0.76%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners16.11%
Inst Owner Change-20.15%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap16.52B
Revenue(TTM)47.51B
Net Income(TTM)8.84B
Analysts86.32
Price Target25.53 (22.21%)
Short Float %4.22%
Short Ratio11.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% |
Yearly Dividend1.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.73%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)28.78%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.07%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)28.78%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.21%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.06%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)5%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.62%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.13%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.69%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.19%
PT rev (1m)0.78%
PT rev (3m)2.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)4.56%
EPS NQ rev (3m)5.52%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.63%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.57%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.14 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.07 | ||
| P/S | 2.46 | ||
| P/FCF | 11.07 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.07 | ||
| P/B | 1.81 | ||
| P/tB | 2.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.58 |
EPS(TTM)1.59
EY7.61%
EPS(NY)1.89
Fwd EY9.03%
FCF(TTM)1.89
FCFY9.03%
OCF(TTM)1.89
OCFY9.03%
SpS8.5
BVpS11.57
TBVpS9.7
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.69
Graham Number20.35
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.76% | ||
| ROE | 13.66% | ||
| ROCE | 16.16% | ||
| ROIC | 10.83% | ||
| ROICexc | 16.01% | ||
| ROICexgc | 19.96% | ||
| OM | 22.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.6% | ||
| GM | 25.99% | ||
| FCFM | 22.2% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.52
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.13 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.87 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.65% | ||
| Profit Quality | 119.35% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.38 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.41 |
F-Score6
WACC4.58%
ROIC/WACC2.36
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
EPS Next Y-4.36%
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
EPS Next 5Y6.86%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
Revenue Next Year13.07%
Revenue Next 2Y12.22%
Revenue Next 3Y11.47%
Revenue Next 5Y9.01%
EBIT growth 1Y-3.07%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year25.35%
EBIT Next 3Y15.83%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y-20.13%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.13%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR / ZTO FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO.
What is the valuation status of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of ZTO stock?
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 13.14 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.81.
What is the financial health of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
The financial health rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 7 / 10.