ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ZTO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US98980A1051 - ADR
We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to ZTO. ZTO was compared to 21 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. ZTO is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination! This makes ZTO very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ZTO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO has been profitable.
In the past 5 years ZTO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of ZTO (9.24%) is better than 89.47% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 14.24%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 12.34%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 9.42%. This is in line with the industry average of 10.93%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (12.34%) for ZTO is above the 3 year average (9.42%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.24% | ||
| ROE | 14.24% | ||
| ROIC | 12.34% |
ROA(3y)8.71%
ROA(5y)9.16%
ROE(3y)12.34%
ROE(5y)12.13%
ROIC(3y)9.42%
ROIC(5y)9.41%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of ZTO (20.55%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 26.39%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 31.17%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.55% | ||
| GM | 31.17% |
OM growth 3Y11.37%
OM growth 5Y1.14%
PM growth 3Y10.02%
PM growth 5Y-1.77%
GM growth 3Y9.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ZTO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ZTO is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 3.43. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO's Altman-Z score of 3.43 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 63.16% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.02. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as ZTO would need 3.02 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ZTO has a better Debt to FCF ratio (3.02) than 78.95% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of ZTO (0.18) is better than 63.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.02 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.43 |
ROIC/WACC1.76
WACC7%
2.3 Liquidity
ZTO has a Current Ratio of 0.96. This is a bad value and indicates that ZTO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.96, ZTO is doing worse than 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.96 indicates that ZTO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ZTO's Quick ratio of 0.96 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO is outperformed by 68.42% of its industry peers.
ZTO does not score too well on the current and quick ratio evaluation. However, as it has excellent solvency and profitability, these ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.96 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 10.14% over the past year.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 12.36% yearly.
Looking at the last year, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 11.44% in the last year.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 16.89% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)10.14%
EPS 3Y24.41%
EPS 5Y12.36%
EPS Q2Q%2.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.44%
Revenue growth 3Y15.07%
Revenue growth 5Y16.89%
Sales Q2Q%17.62%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.57% on average per year.
ZTO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.85% yearly.
EPS Next Y14.58%
EPS Next 2Y17.05%
EPS Next 3Y15.88%
EPS Next 5Y8.57%
Revenue Next Year8.35%
Revenue Next 2Y9.43%
Revenue Next 3Y9.83%
Revenue Next 5Y6.85%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 11.51, the valuation of ZTO can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.47% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 28.29.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.19 indicates a reasonable valuation of ZTO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 24.44, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.19 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 84.21% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.03 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.07 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ZTO's earnings are expected to grow with 15.88% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.79
PEG (5Y)0.93
EPS Next 2Y17.05%
EPS Next 3Y15.88%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.17%, which is a nice return.
The stock price of ZTO dropped by -20.68% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.64, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.28.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.17% |
5.2 History
ZTO has paid a dividend for less than 5 years, so there is no long track record yet.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
24.03% of the earnings are spent on dividend by ZTO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP24.03%
EPS Next 2Y17.05%
EPS Next 3Y15.88%
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR
NYSE:ZTO (1/21/2025, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 19.22 0 (0%)19.22
+0.13 (+0.68%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners7.31%
Inst Owner Change0.15%
Ins Owners0.2%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.35B
Analysts87.37
Price Target28.11 (46.25%)
Short Float %4.32%
Short Ratio6.37
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.17% |
Yearly Dividend2.57
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP24.03%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)16.08%
Min EPS beat(2)0.11%
Max EPS beat(2)32.05%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.65%
Min EPS beat(4)-29.1%
Max EPS beat(4)32.05%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)4.13%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)8.36%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)3.84%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.52%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.16%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.12%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.72%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.78%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.92%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.54%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.6%
PT rev (1m)-0.45%
PT rev (3m)-1.27%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.57%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.88%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.57%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.58%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.55%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.95%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.77%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.19 | ||
| P/S | 2.66 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.03 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.91 | ||
| P/B | 1.85 | ||
| P/tB | 2.23 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.07 |
EPS(TTM)1.67
EY8.69%
EPS(NY)2.09
Fwd EY10.89%
FCF(TTM)1.01
FCFY5.26%
OCF(TTM)2.16
OCFY11.22%
SpS7.22
BVpS10.42
TBVpS8.64
PEG (NY)0.79
PEG (5Y)0.93
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.24% | ||
| ROE | 14.24% | ||
| ROCE | 17.86% | ||
| ROIC | 12.34% | ||
| ROICexc | 18% | ||
| ROICexgc | 22.72% | ||
| OM | 26.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.55% | ||
| GM | 31.17% | ||
| FCFM | 14% |
ROA(3y)8.71%
ROA(5y)9.16%
ROE(3y)12.34%
ROE(5y)12.13%
ROIC(3y)9.42%
ROIC(5y)9.41%
ROICexc(3y)12.6%
ROICexc(5y)13.73%
ROICexgc(3y)15.74%
ROICexgc(5y)18.04%
ROCE(3y)12.71%
ROCE(5y)12.32%
ROICexcg growth 3Y4.32%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-12.96%
ROICexc growth 3Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.73%
OM growth 3Y11.37%
OM growth 5Y1.14%
PM growth 3Y10.02%
PM growth 5Y-1.77%
GM growth 3Y9.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.02 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.77 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 68.12% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.43 |
F-Score6
WACC7%
ROIC/WACC1.76
Cap/Depr(3y)309.8%
Cap/Depr(5y)368.6%
Cap/Sales(3y)23%
Cap/Sales(5y)25.83%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)10.14%
EPS 3Y24.41%
EPS 5Y12.36%
EPS Q2Q%2.11%
EPS Next Y14.58%
EPS Next 2Y17.05%
EPS Next 3Y15.88%
EPS Next 5Y8.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.44%
Revenue growth 3Y15.07%
Revenue growth 5Y16.89%
Sales Q2Q%17.62%
Revenue Next Year8.35%
Revenue Next 2Y9.43%
Revenue Next 3Y9.83%
Revenue Next 5Y6.85%
EBIT growth 1Y14.07%
EBIT growth 3Y28.16%
EBIT growth 5Y18.23%
EBIT Next Year52.71%
EBIT Next 3Y23.94%
EBIT Next 5Y15.44%
FCF growth 1Y-45.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y73.73%
OCF growth 1Y16.89%
OCF growth 3Y39.23%
OCF growth 5Y24.85%