ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO)
US98980A1051 - ADR
Overall ZTO gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated ZTO against 20 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While ZTO has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. ZTO may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth With these ratings, ZTO could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ZTO was profitable.
In the past year ZTO had a positive cash flow from operations.
ZTO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO's Return On Assets of 9.24% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 89.47% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Return On Equity of 14.24% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 73.68% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of ZTO (12.34%) is better than 84.21% of its industry peers.
ZTO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 9.42%. This is in line with the industry average of 10.92%.
The 3 year average ROIC (9.42%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(12.34%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.24% | ||
| ROE | 14.24% | ||
| ROIC | 12.34% |
ROA(3y)8.71%
ROA(5y)9.16%
ROE(3y)12.34%
ROE(5y)12.13%
ROIC(3y)9.42%
ROIC(5y)9.41%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 20.55%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of ZTO (26.39%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
ZTO has a Gross Margin of 31.17%. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 68.42% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.55% | ||
| GM | 31.17% |
OM growth 3Y11.37%
OM growth 5Y1.14%
PM growth 3Y10.02%
PM growth 5Y-1.77%
GM growth 3Y9.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is still creating some value.
ZTO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 3.51. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO's Altman-Z score of 3.51 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 68.42% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.02. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as ZTO would need 3.02 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 3.02, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of ZTO (0.18) is better than 63.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.02 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.51 |
ROIC/WACC1.79
WACC6.91%
2.3 Liquidity
ZTO has a Current Ratio of 0.96. This is a bad value and indicates that ZTO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.96, ZTO is not doing good in the industry: 68.42% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 0.96. This is a bad value and indicates that ZTO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ZTO (0.96) is worse than 68.42% of its industry peers.
The current and quick ratio evaluation for ZTO is rather negative, while it does have excellent solvency and profitability. These ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.96 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 10.07% over the past year.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 12.36% yearly.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 11.44%.
Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 16.89% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)10.07%
EPS 3Y24.41%
EPS 5Y12.36%
EPS Q2Q%2.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.44%
Revenue growth 3Y15.07%
Revenue growth 5Y16.89%
Sales Q2Q%17.62%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.41% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.70% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y14.5%
EPS Next 2Y17.02%
EPS Next 3Y15.86%
EPS Next 5Y8.41%
Revenue Next Year9.39%
Revenue Next 2Y10.52%
Revenue Next 3Y10.46%
Revenue Next 5Y6.7%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 11.95, the valuation of ZTO can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 89.47% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.20, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.55, the valuation of ZTO can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 94.74% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.73, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.55 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ZTO indicates a rather cheap valuation: ZTO is cheaper than 84.21% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ZTO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 78.95% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.78 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of ZTO may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ZTO's earnings are expected to grow with 15.86% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.82
PEG (5Y)0.97
EPS Next 2Y17.02%
EPS Next 3Y15.86%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.89%, ZTO is a good candidate for dividend investing.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 2.83. ZTO pays more dividend than 94.74% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, ZTO pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.89% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for less than 5 years, so it still needs to build a track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
ZTO pays out 24.03% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP24.03%
EPS Next 2Y17.02%
EPS Next 3Y15.86%
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR
NYSE:ZTO (12/20/2024, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 19.83 0 (0%)19.83
+0.11 (+0.56%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners7.31%
Inst Owner Change-15.62%
Ins Owners0.2%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.93B
Analysts88
Price Target28.24 (42.41%)
Short Float %3.84%
Short Ratio5.8
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.89% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP24.03%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)16.08%
Min EPS beat(2)0.11%
Max EPS beat(2)32.05%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.65%
Min EPS beat(4)-29.1%
Max EPS beat(4)32.05%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)4.13%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)8.36%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)3.84%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.52%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.16%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.12%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.72%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.78%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.92%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.54%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.6%
PT rev (1m)-3.2%
PT rev (3m)-5.89%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.07%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.43%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.07%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.13%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.55%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.12%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.55 | ||
| P/S | 2.77 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.78 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.26 | ||
| P/B | 1.92 | ||
| P/tB | 2.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.38 |
EPS(TTM)1.66
EY8.37%
EPS(NY)2.08
Fwd EY10.47%
FCF(TTM)1
FCFY5.06%
OCF(TTM)2.14
OCFY10.79%
SpS7.16
BVpS10.34
TBVpS8.57
PEG (NY)0.82
PEG (5Y)0.97
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.24% | ||
| ROE | 14.24% | ||
| ROCE | 17.86% | ||
| ROIC | 12.34% | ||
| ROICexc | 18% | ||
| ROICexgc | 22.72% | ||
| OM | 26.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.55% | ||
| GM | 31.17% | ||
| FCFM | 14% |
ROA(3y)8.71%
ROA(5y)9.16%
ROE(3y)12.34%
ROE(5y)12.13%
ROIC(3y)9.42%
ROIC(5y)9.41%
ROICexc(3y)12.6%
ROICexc(5y)13.73%
ROICexgc(3y)15.74%
ROICexgc(5y)18.04%
ROCE(3y)12.71%
ROCE(5y)12.32%
ROICexcg growth 3Y4.32%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-12.96%
ROICexc growth 3Y7.97%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.73%
OM growth 3Y11.37%
OM growth 5Y1.14%
PM growth 3Y10.02%
PM growth 5Y-1.77%
GM growth 3Y9.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.02 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.77 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 68.12% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.51 |
F-Score6
WACC6.91%
ROIC/WACC1.79
Cap/Depr(3y)309.8%
Cap/Depr(5y)368.6%
Cap/Sales(3y)23%
Cap/Sales(5y)25.83%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)10.07%
EPS 3Y24.41%
EPS 5Y12.36%
EPS Q2Q%2.05%
EPS Next Y14.5%
EPS Next 2Y17.02%
EPS Next 3Y15.86%
EPS Next 5Y8.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.44%
Revenue growth 3Y15.07%
Revenue growth 5Y16.89%
Sales Q2Q%17.62%
Revenue Next Year9.39%
Revenue Next 2Y10.52%
Revenue Next 3Y10.46%
Revenue Next 5Y6.7%
EBIT growth 1Y14.07%
EBIT growth 3Y28.16%
EBIT growth 5Y18.23%
EBIT Next Year52.71%
EBIT Next 3Y23.94%
EBIT Next 5Y15.28%
FCF growth 1Y-45.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y73.73%
OCF growth 1Y16.89%
OCF growth 3Y39.23%
OCF growth 5Y24.85%