ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ZTO - US98980A1051 - ADR
21.435 USD
+0.4 (+1.93%)
Taking everything into account, ZTO scores 7 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ZTO was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on ZTO. This makes ZTO very considerable for value and quality investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ZTO was profitable.
In the past year ZTO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO has been profitable.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO has a better Return On Assets (9.76%) than 86.96% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Return On Equity of 13.66% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Return On Invested Capital of 10.83% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 82.61% of its industry peers.
ZTO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.66%. This is in line with the industry average of 12.34%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(10.83%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.76% | ||
| ROE | 13.66% | ||
| ROIC | 10.83% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of ZTO (18.60%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
ZTO has a Operating Margin of 22.60%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
ZTO has a Gross Margin of 25.99%. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 22.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.6% | ||
| GM | 25.99% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
ZTO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
ZTO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ZTO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 4.40. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of ZTO (4.40) is better than 73.91% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO is 1.13, which is an excellent value as it means it would take ZTO, only 1.13 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 1.13, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.18, ZTO is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.4 |
ROIC/WACC2.36
WACC4.59%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.38 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
ZTO has a worse Current ratio (1.38) than 60.87% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.38 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ZTO (1.38) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The current and quick ratio evaluation for ZTO is rather negative, while it does have excellent solvency and profitability. These ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.38 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ZTO have decreased by -6.97% in the last year.
Measured over the past 5 years, ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.77% on average per year.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 13.17%.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
3.2 Future
ZTO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 6.86% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 9.01% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-4.36%
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
EPS Next 5Y6.86%
Revenue Next Year13.07%
Revenue Next 2Y12.22%
Revenue Next 3Y11.47%
Revenue Next 5Y9.01%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.48, ZTO is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.96% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ZTO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.76, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.34 indicates a reasonable valuation of ZTO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ZTO to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.96), we can say ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.34 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11.35 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.56 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.74
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.08%, ZTO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.45, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.31.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
NYSE:ZTO (12/12/2025, 1:43:57 PM)
21.435
+0.4 (+1.93%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners16.11%
Inst Owner Change-20.15%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap16.96B
Revenue(TTM)47.51B
Net Income(TTM)8.84B
Analysts86.32
Price Target25.53 (19.1%)
Short Float %4.22%
Short Ratio11.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% |
Yearly Dividend1.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.73%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)28.78%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.07%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)28.78%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.21%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.06%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)5%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.62%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.13%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.69%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.19%
PT rev (1m)0.78%
PT rev (3m)2.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)4.56%
EPS NQ rev (3m)5.52%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.63%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.57%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.34 | ||
| P/S | 2.52 | ||
| P/FCF | 11.35 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.35 | ||
| P/B | 1.85 | ||
| P/tB | 2.21 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.56 |
EPS(TTM)1.59
EY7.42%
EPS(NY)1.89
Fwd EY8.81%
FCF(TTM)1.89
FCFY8.81%
OCF(TTM)1.89
OCFY8.81%
SpS8.51
BVpS11.59
TBVpS9.72
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.74
Graham Number20.36
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.76% | ||
| ROE | 13.66% | ||
| ROCE | 16.16% | ||
| ROIC | 10.83% | ||
| ROICexc | 16.01% | ||
| ROICexgc | 19.96% | ||
| OM | 22.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.6% | ||
| GM | 25.99% | ||
| FCFM | 22.2% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.52
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.13 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.87 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.65% | ||
| Profit Quality | 119.35% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.38 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.4 |
F-Score6
WACC4.59%
ROIC/WACC2.36
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
EPS Next Y-4.36%
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
EPS Next 5Y6.86%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
Revenue Next Year13.07%
Revenue Next 2Y12.22%
Revenue Next 3Y11.47%
Revenue Next 5Y9.01%
EBIT growth 1Y-3.07%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year25.35%
EBIT Next 3Y15.83%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y-20.13%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.13%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR / ZTO FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO.
What is the valuation status of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of ZTO stock?
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 13.48 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.85.
What is the financial health of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
The financial health rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 7 / 10.