ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ZTO - US98980A1051 - ADR
18.98 USD
-0.01 (-0.05%)
19 USD
+0.02 (+0.11%)
Taking everything into account, ZTO scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ZTO was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. ZTO may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth These ratings would make ZTO suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO has been profitable.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of ZTO (9.21%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 13.57%, ZTO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of ZTO (11.40%) is better than 82.61% of its industry peers.
ZTO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.66%. This is in line with the industry average of 11.80%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (11.40%) for ZTO is above the 3 year average (10.66%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
ZTO's Profit Margin of 18.81% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of ZTO (24.13%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 27.48%, ZTO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
ZTO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 3.68. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of ZTO (3.68) is better than 65.22% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.76. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.76 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 1.76, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
ZTO has a better Debt to Equity ratio (0.17) than 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.68 |
ROIC/WACC2.57
WACC4.44%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.21 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
ZTO's Current ratio of 1.21 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO is outperformed by 73.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.21, ZTO is not doing good in the industry: 65.22% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The current and quick ratio evaluation for ZTO is rather negative, while it does have excellent solvency and profitability. These ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ZTO have decreased by -8.22% in the last year.
Measured over the past 5 years, ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.77% on average per year.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 14.70%.
Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.14% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.27% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-9%
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
EPS Next 5Y6.14%
Revenue Next Year12.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.08%
Revenue Next 5Y8.27%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
ZTO is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.17.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ZTO indicates a rather cheap valuation: ZTO is cheaper than 82.61% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.31, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
ZTO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.37.
95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.85, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.37 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.33 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.32 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.57
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.34%, ZTO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.76, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.34% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
18.98
-0.01 (-0.05%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners14.67%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.15B
Analysts86.67
Price Target25.55 (34.62%)
Short Float %3.59%
Short Ratio7.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.34% |
Yearly Dividend1.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-17.1%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)0.11%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.08%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)0.01%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)3.17%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.38%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.71%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)3.02%
PT rev (3m)5.28%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.2%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.67%
EPS NY rev (1m)-4.93%
EPS NY rev (3m)-17.34%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.66%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.36%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.37 | ||
| P/S | 2.33 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.33 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.33 | ||
| P/B | 1.68 | ||
| P/tB | 2.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.32 |
EPS(TTM)1.56
EY8.22%
EPS(NY)1.83
Fwd EY9.64%
FCF(TTM)1.84
FCFY9.68%
OCF(TTM)1.84
OCFY9.68%
SpS8.14
BVpS11.29
TBVpS9.45
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.57
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROCE | 16.89% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 17.36% | ||
| ROICexgc | 21.86% | ||
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% | ||
| FCFM | 22.56% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.79 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 73.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 119.96% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.68 |
F-Score5
WACC4.44%
ROIC/WACC2.57
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
EPS Next Y-9%
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
EPS Next 5Y6.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
Revenue Next Year12.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.08%
Revenue Next 5Y8.27%
EBIT growth 1Y4.83%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year24.25%
EBIT Next 3Y16.41%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y21.64%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.19%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%