TOLL BROTHERS INC (TOL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:TOL - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US8894781033 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, TOL scores 7 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. TOL was compared to 66 industry peers in the Household Durables industry. While TOL has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on TOL. With these ratings, TOL could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year TOL was profitable.
In the past year TOL had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years TOL has always been profitable.
TOL had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 11.75%, TOL belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 84.62% of the companies in the same industry.
TOL has a better Return On Equity (20.48%) than 83.08% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 14.49%, TOL belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 81.54% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for TOL is in line with the industry average of 12.03%.
The 3 year average ROIC (13.26%) for TOL is below the current ROIC(14.49%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 11.75% | ||
| ROE | 20.48% | ||
| ROIC | 14.49% |
ROA(3y)11.06%
ROA(5y)8.89%
ROE(3y)20.7%
ROE(5y)17.4%
ROIC(3y)13.26%
ROIC(5y)10.59%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 14.49%, TOL belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.77% of the companies in the same industry.
TOL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
TOL's Operating Margin of 18.85% is amongst the best of the industry. TOL outperforms 90.77% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of TOL has grown nicely.
TOL has a Gross Margin of 27.91%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: TOL outperforms 56.92% of its industry peers.
TOL's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 18.85% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 14.49% | ||
| GM | 27.91% |
OM growth 3Y17.51%
OM growth 5Y14.86%
PM growth 3Y15.15%
PM growth 5Y12.14%
GM growth 3Y8.08%
GM growth 5Y7.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), TOL is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, TOL has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, TOL has less shares outstanding
TOL has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
TOL has an Altman-Z score of 4.08. This indicates that TOL is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
TOL has a Altman-Z score of 4.08. This is in the better half of the industry: TOL outperforms 63.08% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of TOL is 3.02, which is a good value as it means it would take TOL, 3.02 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
TOL has a better Debt to FCF ratio (3.02) than 67.69% of its industry peers.
TOL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.37. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.37, TOL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 43.08% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.37 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.02 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.08 |
ROIC/WACC1.68
WACC8.64%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 4.05 indicates that TOL has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of TOL (4.05) is better than 72.31% of its industry peers.
TOL has a Quick Ratio of 4.05. This is a bad value and indicates that TOL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of TOL (0.58) is worse than 78.46% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 4.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.58 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
TOL shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 3.25%.
TOL shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 27.96% yearly.
Looking at the last year, TOL shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.86% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, TOL shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 8.47% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)3.25%
EPS 3Y27.67%
EPS 5Y27.96%
EPS Q2Q%-22.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.86%
Revenue growth 3Y7.26%
Revenue growth 5Y8.47%
Sales Q2Q%-4.71%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, TOL will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.33% on average per year.
TOL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.95% yearly.
EPS Next Y3.98%
EPS Next 2Y7.25%
EPS Next 3Y8.19%
EPS Next 5Y8.33%
Revenue Next Year3.67%
Revenue Next 2Y5.59%
Revenue Next 3Y5.7%
Revenue Next 5Y6.95%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 8.09, which indicates a very decent valuation of TOL.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, TOL is valued a bit cheaper than 72.31% of the companies in the same industry.
TOL's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 29.41.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.78 indicates a rather cheap valuation of TOL.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, TOL is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.54% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.12, TOL is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.78 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, TOL is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 80.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
TOL's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. TOL is cheaper than 78.46% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11.53 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.81 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
TOL has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.03
PEG (5Y)0.29
EPS Next 2Y7.25%
EPS Next 3Y8.19%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
TOL has a yearly dividend return of 0.83%, which is pretty low.
In the last 3 months the price of TOL has falen by -29.84%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.10, TOL pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.30, TOL's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.83% |
5.2 History
The dividend of TOL is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 15.67%!
TOL has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As TOL did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.67%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years7
5.3 Sustainability
5.94% of the earnings are spent on dividend by TOL. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of TOL is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP5.94%
EPS Next 2Y7.25%
EPS Next 3Y8.19%
108.11
-0.28 (-0.26%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Durables & Apparel
GICS IndustryHousehold Durables
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.87%
Inst Owner Change-0.03%
Ins Owners0.69%
Ins Owner Change-0.91%
Market Cap10.80B
Analysts77.39
Price Target160.53 (48.49%)
Short Float %3.17%
Short Ratio1.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.83% |
Yearly Dividend0.92
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.67%
DP5.94%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years7
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)6.68%
Min EPS beat(2)5.79%
Max EPS beat(2)7.56%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)4.81%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.17%
Max EPS beat(4)25.07%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)15.74%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)14.22%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)18.47%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.74%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.37%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.84%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.37%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.44%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.59%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.64%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)5.95%
PT rev (1m)-0.32%
PT rev (3m)-1.89%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-10.8%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.1%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.41%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.6%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.78 | ||
| P/S | 1 | ||
| P/FCF | 11.53 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.69 | ||
| P/B | 1.41 | ||
| P/tB | 1.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.81 |
EPS(TTM)13.36
EY12.36%
EPS(NY)15.94
Fwd EY14.75%
FCF(TTM)9.38
FCFY8.67%
OCF(TTM)10.11
OCFY9.35%
SpS108.59
BVpS76.79
TBVpS76.79
PEG (NY)2.03
PEG (5Y)0.29
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 11.75% | ||
| ROE | 20.48% | ||
| ROCE | 19.34% | ||
| ROIC | 14.49% | ||
| ROICexc | 16.52% | ||
| ROICexgc | 16.73% | ||
| OM | 18.85% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 14.49% | ||
| GM | 27.91% | ||
| FCFM | 8.63% |
ROA(3y)11.06%
ROA(5y)8.89%
ROE(3y)20.7%
ROE(5y)17.4%
ROIC(3y)13.26%
ROIC(5y)10.59%
ROICexc(3y)15.3%
ROICexc(5y)12.36%
ROICexgc(3y)15.57%
ROICexgc(5y)12.57%
ROCE(3y)17.71%
ROCE(5y)14.14%
ROICexcg growth 3Y16.35%
ROICexcg growth 5Y20.45%
ROICexc growth 3Y16.42%
ROICexc growth 5Y20.38%
OM growth 3Y17.51%
OM growth 5Y14.86%
PM growth 3Y15.15%
PM growth 5Y12.14%
GM growth 3Y8.08%
GM growth 5Y7.34%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.37 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.02 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.33 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 90.69% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.68% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 47.52% | ||
| Profit Quality | 59.61% | ||
| Current Ratio | 4.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.58 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.08 |
F-Score8
WACC8.64%
ROIC/WACC1.68
Cap/Depr(3y)93.15%
Cap/Depr(5y)105.24%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.7%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.88%
Profit Quality(3y)72.56%
Profit Quality(5y)113.39%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)3.25%
EPS 3Y27.67%
EPS 5Y27.96%
EPS Q2Q%-22.22%
EPS Next Y3.98%
EPS Next 2Y7.25%
EPS Next 3Y8.19%
EPS Next 5Y8.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.86%
Revenue growth 3Y7.26%
Revenue growth 5Y8.47%
Sales Q2Q%-4.71%
Revenue Next Year3.67%
Revenue Next 2Y5.59%
Revenue Next 3Y5.7%
Revenue Next 5Y6.95%
EBIT growth 1Y18.54%
EBIT growth 3Y26.05%
EBIT growth 5Y24.59%
EBIT Next Year2.39%
EBIT Next 3Y6.27%
EBIT Next 5Y5.62%
FCF growth 1Y-21.53%
FCF growth 3Y-8.84%
FCF growth 5Y21.71%
OCF growth 1Y-20.24%
OCF growth 3Y-8.14%
OCF growth 5Y18.21%