GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO)
US39874R1014 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to GO. GO was compared to 43 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GO while its profitability can be described as average. GO is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years GO has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years GO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GO (1.63%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GO has a Return On Equity (4.18%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of GO (2.50%) is worse than 66.67% of its industry peers.
GO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 3.34%. This is significantly below the industry average of 8.43%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.63% | ||
| ROE | 4.18% | ||
| ROIC | 2.5% |
ROA(3y)2.45%
ROA(5y)2.47%
ROE(3y)6.18%
ROE(5y)6.44%
ROIC(3y)3.34%
ROIC(5y)3.34%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 1.20%, GO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.76% of the companies in the same industry.
GO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GO has a Operating Margin (2.01%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GO has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 30.42%, GO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.57% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.01% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.2% | ||
| GM | 30.42% |
OM growth 3Y-2.57%
OM growth 5Y-2.55%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y23.55%
GM growth 3Y0.25%
GM growth 5Y0.57%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GO has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, GO has more shares outstanding
GO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.18 indicates that GO is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GO has a worse Altman-Z score (2.18) than 66.67% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.34 indicates that GO is not too dependend on debt financing.
GO's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.34 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.34 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.18 |
ROIC/WACC0.29
WACC8.51%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.46 indicates that GO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GO's Current ratio of 1.46 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 73.81% of its industry peers.
GO has a Quick Ratio of 1.46. This is a bad value and indicates that GO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.33, GO is doing worse than 73.81% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.33 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -30.43%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 32.90% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, GO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 9.03% in the last year.
GO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.65% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.43%
EPS 3Y-10.77%
EPS 5Y32.9%
EPS Q2Q%-9.68%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.03%
Revenue growth 3Y8.19%
Revenue growth 5Y11.65%
Sales Q2Q%10.39%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 7.28% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 9.67% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-25.04%
EPS Next 2Y-5.15%
EPS Next 3Y0.63%
EPS Next 5Y7.28%
Revenue Next Year10.13%
Revenue Next 2Y9.33%
Revenue Next 3Y9.26%
Revenue Next 5Y9.67%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 19.59 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GO.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as GO.
GO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.41, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.13, GO is valued correctly.
GO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GO is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
GO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.69, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.13 |
4.2 Price Multiples
GO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.26 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.6
EPS Next 2Y-5.15%
EPS Next 3Y0.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP
NASDAQ:GO (1/3/2025, 8:00:01 PM)
After market: 15.67 0 (0%)15.67
-0.63 (-3.87%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners111.74%
Inst Owner Change-5.86%
Ins Owners3.71%
Ins Owner Change8.47%
Market Cap1.52B
Analysts52.17
Price Target17.73 (13.15%)
Short Float %8.58%
Short Ratio3.91
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0.03%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)10.97%
Min EPS beat(2)0.43%
Max EPS beat(2)21.5%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.65%
Min EPS beat(4)-52.56%
Max EPS beat(4)21.5%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)3.45%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)4.28%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)3.19%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.19%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.66%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.57%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.66%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.34%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.91%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.4%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-26.28%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-43.21%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.73%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.06%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.09%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.13 | ||
| P/S | 0.36 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 15.27 | ||
| P/B | 1.24 | ||
| P/tB | 4.09 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.26 |
EPS(TTM)0.8
EY5.11%
EPS(NY)0.97
Fwd EY6.2%
FCF(TTM)-0.86
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.03
OCFY6.55%
SpS43.89
BVpS12.62
TBVpS3.83
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.6
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.63% | ||
| ROE | 4.18% | ||
| ROCE | 3.08% | ||
| ROIC | 2.5% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.56% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.74% | ||
| OM | 2.01% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.2% | ||
| GM | 30.42% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.45%
ROA(5y)2.47%
ROE(3y)6.18%
ROE(5y)6.44%
ROIC(3y)3.34%
ROIC(5y)3.34%
ROICexc(3y)3.5%
ROICexc(5y)3.48%
ROICexgc(3y)5.31%
ROICexgc(5y)5.44%
ROCE(3y)4.11%
ROCE(5y)4.11%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-1.26%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-18.48%
ROICexc growth 3Y0.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-5.75%
OM growth 3Y-2.57%
OM growth 5Y-2.55%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y23.55%
GM growth 3Y0.25%
GM growth 5Y0.57%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.36
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.34 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.22 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 177.33% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.31% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.64% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.33 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.18 |
F-Score6
WACC8.51%
ROIC/WACC0.29
Cap/Depr(3y)177.43%
Cap/Depr(5y)188.33%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.97%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.94%
Profit Quality(3y)107.16%
Profit Quality(5y)121.08%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.43%
EPS 3Y-10.77%
EPS 5Y32.9%
EPS Q2Q%-9.68%
EPS Next Y-25.04%
EPS Next 2Y-5.15%
EPS Next 3Y0.63%
EPS Next 5Y7.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.03%
Revenue growth 3Y8.19%
Revenue growth 5Y11.65%
Sales Q2Q%10.39%
Revenue Next Year10.13%
Revenue Next 2Y9.33%
Revenue Next 3Y9.26%
Revenue Next 5Y9.67%
EBIT growth 1Y-34.39%
EBIT growth 3Y5.41%
EBIT growth 5Y8.8%
EBIT Next Year68.37%
EBIT Next 3Y28.84%
EBIT Next 5Y21.25%
FCF growth 1Y-288.49%
FCF growth 3Y33.67%
FCF growth 5Y26.81%
OCF growth 1Y-39.09%
OCF growth 3Y18.75%
OCF growth 5Y23.46%