GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:GO - Nasdaq - US39874R1014 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
GO gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 40 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GO while its profitability can be described as average. GO is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GO was profitable.
GO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
GO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GO (1.24%) is worse than 60.00% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of GO (3.30%) is worse than 60.00% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of GO (2.03%) is worse than 70.00% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GO is significantly below the industry average of 8.16%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.24% | ||
| ROE | 3.3% | ||
| ROIC | 2.03% |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of GO (0.90%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Operating Margin value of 1.79%, GO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.00% of the companies in the same industry.
GO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of GO (30.24%) is better than 77.50% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 1.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.9% | ||
| GM | 30.24% |
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GO has more shares outstanding
GO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
GO has an Altman-Z score of 2.13. This is not the best score and indicates that GO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of GO (2.13) is worse than 72.50% of its industry peers.
GO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.39. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.39, GO is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.50% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.39 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.13 |
ROIC/WACC0.25
WACC8.13%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.44 indicates that GO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GO (1.44) is better than 72.50% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.31 indicates that GO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GO's Quick ratio of 0.31 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GO is outperformed by 75.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.44 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.31 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GO have decreased strongly by -28.70% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 15.83% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, GO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 10.13% in the last year.
GO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-28.7%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%-16.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%10.91%
3.2 Future
GO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.36% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.92% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-3.02%
EPS Next 2Y7.4%
EPS Next 3Y7.03%
EPS Next 5Y11.36%
Revenue Next Year8.69%
Revenue Next 2Y7.41%
Revenue Next 3Y7.22%
Revenue Next 5Y7.92%
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 19.69, GO is valued on the expensive side.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as GO.
GO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.29, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 20.30, GO is valued on the expensive side.
GO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GO is cheaper than 62.50% of the companies in the same industry.
GO is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.08, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.69 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.3 |
4.2 Price Multiples
GO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.24
EPS Next 2Y7.4%
EPS Next 3Y7.03%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
15.16
+0.52 (+3.55%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners108.52%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners4.01%
Ins Owner Change16.37%
Market Cap1.48B
Analysts51.3
Price Target14.12 (-6.86%)
Short Float %12.65%
Short Ratio4.5
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.09%
Min EPS beat(2)-12.62%
Max EPS beat(2)0.43%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-10.81%
Min EPS beat(4)-52.56%
Max EPS beat(4)21.5%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)1.21%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)3.47%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)2.31%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.04%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.19%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.89%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.57%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.66%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.52%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.87%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.48%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-20.35%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-57.14%
EPS NY rev (1m)-22.6%
EPS NY rev (3m)-23.14%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.28%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.14%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.69 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.3 | ||
| P/S | 0.34 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 13.18 | ||
| P/B | 1.23 | ||
| P/tB | 4.39 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.14 |
EPS(TTM)0.77
EY5.08%
EPS(NY)0.75
Fwd EY4.93%
FCF(TTM)-0.77
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.15
OCFY7.59%
SpS44.9
BVpS12.3
TBVpS3.45
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.24
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.24% | ||
| ROE | 3.3% | ||
| ROCE | 2.77% | ||
| ROIC | 2.03% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.08% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.02% | ||
| OM | 1.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.9% | ||
| GM | 30.24% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
ROICexc(3y)2.91%
ROICexc(5y)3.05%
ROICexgc(3y)4.35%
ROICexgc(5y)4.65%
ROCE(3y)3.82%
ROCE(5y)3.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.98%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.14%
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.38
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.39 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.48 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 172.46% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.27% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.99 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 60.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.44 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.31 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.13 |
F-Score6
WACC8.13%
ROIC/WACC0.25
Cap/Depr(3y)177.07%
Cap/Depr(5y)184.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.06%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.03%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-28.7%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%-16.67%
EPS Next Y-3.02%
EPS Next 2Y7.4%
EPS Next 3Y7.03%
EPS Next 5Y11.36%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%10.91%
Revenue Next Year8.69%
Revenue Next 2Y7.41%
Revenue Next 3Y7.22%
Revenue Next 5Y7.92%
EBIT growth 1Y-37.75%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.2%
EBIT growth 5Y2.78%
EBIT Next Year115.72%
EBIT Next 3Y35.09%
EBIT Next 5Y24.72%
FCF growth 1Y-155.52%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-63.1%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-3.36%