GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:GO - Nasdaq - US39874R1014 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, GO scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GO was compared to 40 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GO while its profitability can be described as average. GO has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GO had positive earnings in the past year.
GO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GO has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GO has a Return On Assets (1.24%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of GO (3.30%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GO's Return On Invested Capital of 2.03% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GO is outperformed by 72.50% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GO is significantly below the industry average of 8.44%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.24% | ||
| ROE | 3.3% | ||
| ROIC | 2.03% |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
1.3 Margins
GO has a Profit Margin of 0.90%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GO outperforms 47.50% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GO has grown nicely.
GO has a Operating Margin of 1.79%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GO outperforms 45.00% of its industry peers.
GO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
GO has a Gross Margin of 30.24%. This is in the better half of the industry: GO outperforms 77.50% of its industry peers.
GO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 1.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.9% | ||
| GM | 30.24% |
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
GO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GO has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for GO is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.07 indicates that GO is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GO's Altman-Z score of 2.07 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GO is outperformed by 75.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.39 indicates that GO is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.39, GO is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.50% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.39 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.07 |
ROIC/WACC0.25
WACC8.01%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.44 indicates that GO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.44, GO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 72.50% of the companies in the same industry.
GO has a Quick Ratio of 1.44. This is a bad value and indicates that GO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GO has a Quick ratio of 0.31. This is in the lower half of the industry: GO underperforms 72.50% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.44 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.31 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -28.70%.
Measured over the past years, GO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 15.83% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, GO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 10.13% in the last year.
GO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-28.7%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%-16.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%10.91%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.73% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 9.29% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y25.29%
EPS Next 2Y20.61%
EPS Next 3Y16.27%
EPS Next 5Y16.73%
Revenue Next Year8.57%
Revenue Next 2Y7.5%
Revenue Next 3Y7.22%
Revenue Next 5Y9.29%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GO is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 17.01.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GO is valued a bit cheaper than 67.50% of the companies in the same industry.
GO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 29.35.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.58 indicates a correct valuation of GO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GO is valued a bit cheaper than 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GO to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.10), we can say GO is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.58 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GO is cheaper than 62.50% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GO's earnings are expected to grow with 16.27% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.67
PEG (5Y)1.07
EPS Next 2Y20.61%
EPS Next 3Y16.27%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
13.1
+1.57 (+13.62%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners108.52%
Inst Owner Change3.28%
Ins Owners4.01%
Ins Owner Change17.64%
Market Cap1.28B
Analysts51.3
Price Target14.12 (7.79%)
Short Float %12.35%
Short Ratio5.04
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.09%
Min EPS beat(2)-12.62%
Max EPS beat(2)0.43%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-10.81%
Min EPS beat(4)-52.56%
Max EPS beat(4)21.5%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)1.21%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)3.47%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)2.31%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.04%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.19%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.89%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.57%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.66%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.52%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.87%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.48%
PT rev (1m)-20.35%
PT rev (3m)-20.35%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-37.06%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-37.06%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.64%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.92%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.69%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.69%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.04%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.58 | ||
| P/S | 0.29 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 11.39 | ||
| P/B | 1.07 | ||
| P/tB | 3.8 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
EPS(TTM)0.77
EY5.88%
EPS(NY)0.96
Fwd EY7.36%
FCF(TTM)-0.77
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.15
OCFY8.78%
SpS44.9
BVpS12.3
TBVpS3.45
PEG (NY)0.67
PEG (5Y)1.07
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.24% | ||
| ROE | 3.3% | ||
| ROCE | 2.77% | ||
| ROIC | 2.03% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.08% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.02% | ||
| OM | 1.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.9% | ||
| GM | 30.24% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.09%
ROA(5y)2.58%
ROE(3y)5.22%
ROE(5y)6.68%
ROIC(3y)2.8%
ROIC(5y)2.91%
ROICexc(3y)2.91%
ROICexc(5y)3.05%
ROICexgc(3y)4.35%
ROICexgc(5y)4.65%
ROCE(3y)3.82%
ROCE(5y)3.98%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-6.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.98%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.14%
OM growth 3Y-14.76%
OM growth 5Y-7.66%
PM growth 3Y-23.58%
PM growth 5Y8.45%
GM growth 3Y-0.62%
GM growth 5Y-0.33%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.38
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.39 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.48 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 172.46% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.27% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.99 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 60.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.44 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.31 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.07 |
F-Score6
WACC8.01%
ROIC/WACC0.25
Cap/Depr(3y)177.07%
Cap/Depr(5y)184.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.06%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.03%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-28.7%
EPS 3Y-5.07%
EPS 5Y15.83%
EPS Q2Q%-16.67%
EPS Next Y25.29%
EPS Next 2Y20.61%
EPS Next 3Y16.27%
EPS Next 5Y16.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.39%
Revenue growth 5Y11.3%
Sales Q2Q%10.91%
Revenue Next Year8.57%
Revenue Next 2Y7.5%
Revenue Next 3Y7.22%
Revenue Next 5Y9.29%
EBIT growth 1Y-37.75%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.2%
EBIT growth 5Y2.78%
EBIT Next Year122.89%
EBIT Next 3Y40.22%
EBIT Next 5Y26.46%
FCF growth 1Y-155.52%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-63.1%
OCF growth 3Y-12.23%
OCF growth 5Y-3.36%