Fundamental Analysis of GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP(NASDAQ:GO) stock

Fundamental Rating

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to GO. GO was compared to 43 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. GO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GO is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.

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1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year GO was profitable.

GO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.

In the past 5 years GO has always been profitable.

GO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.

1.2 Ratios

GO has a Return On Assets (1.63%) which is in line with its industry peers.

Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 4.18%, GO is in line with its industry, outperforming 40.48% of the companies in the same industry.

The Return On Invested Capital of GO (2.50%) is worse than 71.43% of its industry peers.

Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GO is significantly below the industry average of 8.66%.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
ROA	1.63%
ROE	4.18%
ROIC	2.5%

ROA(3y)2.45%

ROA(5y)2.47%

ROE(3y)6.18%

ROE(5y)6.44%

ROIC(3y)3.34%

ROIC(5y)3.34%

1.3 Margins

GO has a Profit Margin of 1.20%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GO outperforms 54.76% of its industry peers.

In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GO has grown nicely.

Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 2.01%, GO is in line with its industry, outperforming 42.86% of the companies in the same industry.

In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GO has declined.

GO's Gross Margin of 30.42% is amongst the best of the industry. GO outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.

GO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
OM	2.01%
PM (TTM)	1.2%
GM	30.42%

OM growth 3Y-2.57%

OM growth 5Y-2.55%

PM growth 3Y-16.23%

PM growth 5Y23.55%

GM growth 3Y0.25%

GM growth 5Y0.57%

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ROA

ROE

ROIC

Operating and Profit Margin

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2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

GO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.

Compared to 1 year ago, GO has more shares outstanding

The number of shares outstanding for GO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.

The debt/assets ratio for GO has been reduced compared to a year ago.

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.33 indicates that GO is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.

The Altman-Z score of GO (2.33) is worse than 66.67% of its industry peers.

A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.34 indicates that GO is not too dependend on debt financing.

The Debt to Equity ratio of GO (0.34) is comparable to the rest of the industry.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Debt/Equity	0.34
Debt/FCF	N/A
Altman-Z	2.33

ROIC/WACC0.3

WACC8.39%

2.3 Liquidity

GO has a Current Ratio of 1.46. This is a normal value and indicates that GO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.

GO's Current ratio of 1.46 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GO outperforms 76.19% of its industry peers.

A Quick Ratio of 0.33 indicates that GO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.

Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.33, GO is doing worse than 76.19% of the companies in the same industry.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Current Ratio	1.46
Quick Ratio	0.33

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WACC

Debt/Equity

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Altman-Z score

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3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for GO have decreased strongly by -30.43% in the last year.

Measured over the past years, GO shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 32.90% on average per year.

GO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 9.03%.

Measured over the past years, GO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 11.65% on average per year.

EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.43%

EPS 3Y-10.77%

EPS 5Y32.9%

EPS Q2Q%-9.68%

Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.03%

Revenue growth 3Y8.19%

Revenue growth 5Y11.65%

Sales Q2Q%10.39%

3.2 Future

GO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 9.22% yearly.

Based on estimates for the next years, GO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 9.01% on average per year.

EPS Next Y-24.02%

EPS Next 2Y-4.45%

EPS Next 3Y0.63%

EPS Next 5Y9.22%

Revenue Next Year10.13%

Revenue Next 2Y9.33%

Revenue Next 3Y9.26%

Revenue Next 5Y9.01%

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.

The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.

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4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 26.25, GO can be considered very expensive at the moment.

GO's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.

Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 29.64, GO is valued at the same level.

Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.30, the valuation of GO can be described as rather expensive.

GO's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.

GO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 24.28.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
PE	26.25
Fwd PE	21.3

4.2 Price Multiples

The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as GO.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
P/FCF	N/A
EV/EBITDA	12.8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A

PEG (5Y)0.8

EPS Next 2Y-4.45%

EPS Next 3Y0.63%

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5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

GO does not give a dividend.

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Dividend Yield	N/A

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GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP

NASDAQ:GO (11/29/2024, 7:39:16 PM)

After market: 19.8222 -1.18 (-5.61%)

-0.25 (-1.18%)

Chartmill FA Rating

GICS SectorConsumer Staples

GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail

GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail

Earnings (Last)

Earnings (Next)

Inst Owners

Inst Owner Change

Ins Owners

Ins Owner Change

Market Cap2.04B

Analysts

Price Target

Dividend

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Dividend Yield	N/A

Dividend Growth(5Y)

Div Incr Years

Div Non Decr Years

Ex-Date

Surprises & Revisions

EPS beat(2)

Avg EPS beat(2)

Min EPS beat(2)

Max EPS beat(2)

EPS beat(4)

Avg EPS beat(4)

Min EPS beat(4)

Max EPS beat(4)

EPS beat(8)

Avg EPS beat(8)

EPS beat(12)

Avg EPS beat(12)

EPS beat(16)

Avg EPS beat(16)

Revenue beat(2)

Avg Revenue beat(2)

Min Revenue beat(2)

Max Revenue beat(2)

Revenue beat(4)

Avg Revenue beat(4)

Min Revenue beat(4)

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Revenue beat(8)

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Revenue beat(12)

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Revenue beat(16)

Avg Revenue beat(16)

PT rev (1m)

PT rev (3m)

EPS NQ rev (1m)

EPS NQ rev (3m)

EPS NY rev (1m)

EPS NY rev (3m)

Revenue NQ rev (1m)

Revenue NQ rev (3m)

Revenue NY rev (1m)

Revenue NY rev (3m)

Valuation

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
PE	26.25
Fwd PE	21.3
P/S
P/FCF
P/OCF
P/B
P/tB
EV/EBITDA

EPS(TTM)

EPS(NY)

Fwd EY

FCF(TTM)

FCFY

OCF(TTM)

OCFY

SpS

BVpS

TBVpS

PEG (NY)N/A

PEG (5Y)0.8

Profitability

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
ROA	1.63%
ROE	4.18%
ROCE
ROIC
ROICexc
ROICexgc
OM	2.01%
PM (TTM)	1.2%
GM	30.42%
FCFM

ROA(3y)

ROA(5y)

ROE(3y)

ROE(5y)

ROIC(3y)

ROIC(5y)

ROICexc(3y)

ROICexc(5y)

ROICexgc(3y)

ROICexgc(5y)

ROCE(3y)

ROCE(5y)

ROICexcg growth 3Y

ROICexcg growth 5Y

ROICexc growth 3Y

ROICexc growth 5Y

OM growth 3Y

OM growth 5Y

PM growth 3Y

PM growth 5Y

GM growth 3Y

GM growth 5Y

F-Score

Asset Turnover1.36

Health

		Industry Rank	Sector Rank
Debt/Equity	0.34
Debt/FCF
Debt/EBITDA
Cap/Depr
Cap/Sales
Interest Coverage
Cash Conversion
Profit Quality
Current Ratio	1.46
Quick Ratio	0.33
Altman-Z

F-Score

WACC

ROIC/WACC

Cap/Depr(3y)

Cap/Depr(5y)

Cap/Sales(3y)

Cap/Sales(5y)

Profit Quality(3y)

Profit Quality(5y)

High Growth Momentum

Growth

EPS 1Y (TTM)-30.43%

EPS 3Y-10.77%

EPS 5Y

EPS Q2Q%

EPS Next Y-24.02%

EPS Next 2Y

EPS Next 3Y

EPS Next 5Y

Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.03%

Revenue growth 3Y8.19%

Revenue growth 5Y

Sales Q2Q%

Revenue Next Year

Revenue Next 2Y

Revenue Next 3Y

Revenue Next 5Y

EBIT growth 1Y

EBIT growth 3Y

EBIT growth 5Y

EBIT Next Year

EBIT Next 3Y

EBIT Next 5Y

FCF growth 1Y

FCF growth 3Y

FCF growth 5Y

OCF growth 1Y

OCF growth 3Y

OCF growth 5Y

GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP (GO)

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

1.2 Ratios

1.3 Margins

More info and screens

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

2.2 Solvency

2.3 Liquidity

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3. Growth

3.1 Past

3.2 Future

3.3 Evolution

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4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

4.2 Price Multiples

4.3 Compensation for Growth

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5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

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