GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GEO • US36162J1060
14.48 USD
+1.01 (+7.5%)
Last: Feb 13, 2026, 12:58 PM
GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year GEO was profitable.
- In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
- GEO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
- Of the past 5 years GEO 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 6.23%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 15.60%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- GEO has a Return On Invested Capital of 6.18%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 62.50% of its industry peers.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.58%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
- Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.38%, GEO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
- GEO's Operating Margin of 11.03% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 72.50% of its industry peers.
- GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
- GEO has a Gross Margin of 25.51%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 41.25% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
- There is no outstanding debt for GEO. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
2.2 Solvency
- Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.58, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
- Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.58, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 42.50% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 58.99, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
- The Debt to Equity ratio of GEO (1.02) is worse than 67.50% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.58 |
ROIC/WACC0.64
WACC9.6%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- GEO has a Current ratio of 1.62. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 57.50% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 14.67% over the past year.
- The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -9.75% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%16.45%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 33.17% on average per year.
- Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.12% on average per year.
EPS Next Y60.11%
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year14.79%
Revenue Next 2Y7.12%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- With a Price/Earnings ratio of 16.84, GEO is valued correctly.
- 80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- GEO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.67, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.52 indicates a reasonable valuation of GEO.
- 88.75% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
- When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.69), we can say GEO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.84 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.52 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 76.25% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GEO is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 76.51 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.94 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 33.17% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
NYSE:GEO (2/13/2026, 12:58:44 PM)
14.48
+1.01 (+7.5%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)02-12 2026-02-12/bmo
Earnings (Next)05-05 2026-05-05
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change-0.17%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-5.11%
Market Cap2.02B
Revenue(TTM)N/A
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (112.71%)
Short Float %6.47%
Short Ratio4.82
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-20.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.84 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.52 | ||
| P/S | 0.8 | ||
| P/FCF | 76.51 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.67 | ||
| P/B | 1.32 | ||
| P/tB | 3.12 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.94 |
EPS(TTM)0.86
EY5.94%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY9.51%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.31%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY10.34%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number14.54
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.58 |
F-Score6
WACC9.6%
ROIC/WACC0.64
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
EPS Next Y60.11%
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%16.45%
Revenue Next Year14.79%
Revenue Next 2Y7.12%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 60.11% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.