GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
15.76 USD
+0.18 (+1.16%)
15.83 USD
+0.07 (+0.44%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to GEO. GEO was compared to 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. GEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years GEO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GEO's Return On Assets of 6.23% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 76.83% of its industry peers.
GEO's Return On Equity of 15.60% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 76.83% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.18%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.51%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.38%, GEO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.15% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
GEO has a better Operating Margin (11.03%) than 75.61% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
The Gross Margin of GEO (25.51%) is worse than 60.98% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.66, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
GEO has a Altman-Z score (1.66) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 58.99, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.90% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
GEO has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.02) than 65.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC9.4%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GEO has a Current ratio (1.62) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GEO's Quick ratio of 1.62 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 67.07% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
The earnings per share for GEO have been decreasing by -30.77% on average. This is quite bad
GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -16.47%.
GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
GEO is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 26.69% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.34% on average per year.
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 21.30 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GEO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 64.63% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.31. GEO is around the same levels.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.23 indicates a reasonable valuation of GEO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 89.02% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GEO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 36.59, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.3 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.23 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 74.39% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GEO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 83.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.72 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GEO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.96
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GEO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
15.76
+0.18 (+1.16%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.96%
Inst Owner Change-1.82%
Ins Owners1.72%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.19B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (95.43%)
Short Float %6.53%
Short Ratio3.98
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)-20.11%
PT rev (3m)-19.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-11.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-14.35%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.42%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.3 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.23 | ||
| P/S | 0.87 | ||
| P/FCF | 83.27 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.53 | ||
| P/B | 1.44 | ||
| P/tB | 3.4 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.72 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.7%
EPS(NY)1.91
Fwd EY12.14%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.2%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY9.5%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)0.96
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
F-Score6
WACC9.4%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year44.7%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 22.21% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.