GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
14.93 USD
+0.09 (+0.61%)
14.9297 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to GEO. GEO was compared to 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. GEO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on GEO.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GEO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GEO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GEO (2.45%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
With a Return On Equity value of 6.49%, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.32% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.85%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.51%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of GEO (3.66%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
GEO has a better Operating Margin (11.55%) than 78.05% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 25.84%, GEO is doing worse than 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
GEO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.50, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
GEO has a worse Altman-Z score (1.50) than 62.20% of its industry peers.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 12.95. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 12.95 years to pay back of all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (12.95) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
GEO's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GEO is outperformed by 71.95% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.5 |
ROIC/WACC0.73
WACC9.35%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.90 indicates that GEO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.90, GEO is doing worse than 78.05% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 0.90. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.90, GEO is doing worse than 69.51% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GEO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.68%.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.44% in the past year.
GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.44%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 59.75% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 13.33% on average per year.
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 20.18, GEO is valued on the expensive side.
GEO's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 65.85% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.34, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.80, the valuation of GEO can be described as very cheap.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 89.02% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 34.43, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.8 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 69.51% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 16.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.09 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 59.75% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.91
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
14.93
+0.09 (+0.61%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.96%
Inst Owner Change0.42%
Ins Owners1.72%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.11B
Revenue(TTM)2.42B
Net Income(TTM)89.71M
Analysts80
Price Target38.56 (158.27%)
Short Float %6.99%
Short Ratio4.03
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.78%
Min EPS beat(2)-22.99%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.58%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)5.28%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)0.77%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.33%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.39%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.63%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.63%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.27%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.1%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-11.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.34%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.3%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.08%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.8 | ||
| P/S | 0.86 | ||
| P/FCF | 16.13 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.87 | ||
| P/B | 1.53 | ||
| P/tB | 4.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.09 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.96%
EPS(NY)1.91
Fwd EY12.82%
FCF(TTM)0.93
FCFY6.2%
OCF(TTM)1.68
OCFY11.27%
SpS17.32
BVpS9.77
TBVpS3.57
PEG (NY)0.91
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number12.76
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROCE | 9.14% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% | ||
| ROICexc | 7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.86% | ||
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% | ||
| FCFM | 5.34% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.67
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 83.4% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 57.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | 146.04% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.5 |
F-Score5
WACC9.35%
ROIC/WACC0.73
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.44%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.35%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year44.7%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-13.75%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y0.3%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 22.21% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.