GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:GEO • US36162J1060

14.58 USD
+0.37 (+2.6%)
At close: Feb 17, 2026
14.29 USD
-0.29 (-1.99%)
After Hours: 2/17/2026, 8:19:39 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Analyst Ratings Earnings Estimates Financials Ownership News
Fundamental Rating

4

Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on GEO.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • Of the past 5 years GEO 4 years were profitable.
  • Of the past 5 years GEO 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
GEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100M -100M 200M 300M 400M

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 6.23%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.25% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 15.60%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.25% of the companies in the same industry.
  • With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 6.18%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.75% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GEO is below the industry average of 10.66%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.23%
ROE 15.6%
ROIC 6.18%
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
GEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of GEO (9.38%) is better than 83.75% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
  • The Operating Margin of GEO (11.03%) is better than 72.50% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
  • GEO has a Gross Margin (25.51%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • GEO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 11.03%
PM (TTM) 9.38%
GM 25.51%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
GEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15 20 25

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ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
  • There is no outstanding debt for GEO. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
GEO Yearly Shares OutstandingGEO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M
GEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.60, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 1.60, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.50% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO (58.99) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.02, GEO is doing worse than 67.50% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.02
Debt/FCF 58.99
Altman-Z 1.6
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.49%
GEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • GEO has a Current ratio (1.62) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.62, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
GEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 14.67% over the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -9.75% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%16.45%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 33.17% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • GEO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 13.11% yearly.
EPS Next Y60.11%
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year14.56%
Revenue Next 2Y13.11%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
GEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B
GEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1 1.5

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Find the best growth stocksShow best growing peers

7

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 16.95, which indicates a correct valuation of GEO.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued cheaper than 82.50% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.16, GEO is valued a bit cheaper.
  • GEO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.59.
  • GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 88.75% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GEO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 28.10, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 16.95
Fwd PE 10.59
GEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.25% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as GEO.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 77.04
EV/EBITDA 8.19
GEO Per share dataGEO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • GEO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 33.17% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for GEO!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

More info and screens

Find the best dividend stocksShow peers with best dividend

GEO GROUP INC/THE

NYSE:GEO (2/17/2026, 8:19:39 PM)

After market: 14.29 -0.29 (-1.99%)

14.58

+0.37 (+2.6%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)02-12
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change-3.65%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-5.11%
Market Cap2.03B
Revenue(TTM)N/A
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (111.25%)
Short Float %6.33%
Short Ratio4.5
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-20.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 16.95
Fwd PE 10.59
P/S 0.8
P/FCF 77.04
P/OCF 9.74
P/B 1.33
P/tB 3.14
EV/EBITDA 8.19
EPS(TTM)0.86
EY5.9%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY9.44%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.3%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY10.27%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)0.28
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number14.54
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.23%
ROE 15.6%
ROCE 8.24%
ROIC 6.18%
ROICexc 6.54%
ROICexgc 9%
OM 11.03%
PM (TTM) 9.38%
GM 25.51%
FCFM 1.04%
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.02
Debt/FCF 58.99
Debt/EBITDA 3.8
Cap/Depr 140.38%
Cap/Sales 7.19%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 50.98%
Profit Quality 11.1%
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
Altman-Z 1.6
F-Score6
WACC9.49%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
EPS Next Y60.11%
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%16.45%
Revenue Next Year14.56%
Revenue Next 2Y13.11%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%

GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.


What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Undervalued.


Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 60.11% in the next year.


Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?

The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.