GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO)
US36162J1060 - Common Stock
GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 84 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. GEO is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GEO was profitable.
In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.76%, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 44.05% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Return On Equity (2.16%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of GEO (7.38%) is better than 65.48% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GEO is below the industry average of 9.90%.
The 3 year average ROIC (7.17%) for GEO is below the current ROIC(7.38%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.76% | ||
| ROE | 2.16% | ||
| ROIC | 7.38% |
ROA(3y)2.58%
ROA(5y)2.83%
ROE(3y)8.78%
ROE(5y)11.08%
ROIC(3y)7.17%
ROIC(5y)6.31%
1.3 Margins
GEO has a Profit Margin (1.14%) which is in line with its industry peers.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
GEO has a better Operating Margin (13.49%) than 82.14% of its industry peers.
GEO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 27.07%, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 41.67% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 13.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 27.07% |
OM growth 3Y12.09%
OM growth 5Y5.16%
PM growth 3Y-8.43%
PM growth 5Y-9.92%
GM growth 3Y4.44%
GM growth 5Y2.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.98 indicates that GEO is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GEO's Altman-Z score of 1.98 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 45.24% of its industry peers.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.57. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 8.57 years to pay back of all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (8.57) which is in line with its industry peers.
GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.36. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.36, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 73.81% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.57 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.98 |
ROIC/WACC0.85
WACC8.71%
2.3 Liquidity
GEO has a Current Ratio of 1.26. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GEO (1.26) is worse than 67.86% of its industry peers.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.26. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GEO's Quick ratio of 1.26 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 45.24% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.26 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GEO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 5.81%.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -6.69% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.53% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.69% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.81%
EPS 3Y-8.49%
EPS 5Y-6.69%
EPS Q2Q%10.53%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.53%
Revenue growth 3Y0.89%
Revenue growth 5Y0.69%
Sales Q2Q%0.06%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.98% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
GEO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.04% yearly.
EPS Next Y7.12%
EPS Next 2Y19.98%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.77%
Revenue Next 2Y2.04%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 31.57, the valuation of GEO can be described as expensive.
GEO's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.96), we can say GEO is valued inline with the index average.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.94, GEO is valued on the expensive side.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 67.86% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.82. GEO is around the same levels.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.94 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GEO is on the same level as its industry peers.
66.67% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.49 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.39 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 19.98% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)4.43
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19.98%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GEO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
GEO GROUP INC/THE
NYSE:GEO (11/21/2024, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 28.9912 +0.26 (+0.91%)28.73
+0.92 (+3.31%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap4.01B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
Avg EPS beat(4)
Min EPS beat(4)
Max EPS beat(4)
EPS beat(8)
Avg EPS beat(8)
EPS beat(12)
Avg EPS beat(12)
EPS beat(16)
Avg EPS beat(16)
Revenue beat(2)
Avg Revenue beat(2)
Min Revenue beat(2)
Max Revenue beat(2)
Revenue beat(4)
Avg Revenue beat(4)
Min Revenue beat(4)
Max Revenue beat(4)
Revenue beat(8)
Avg Revenue beat(8)
Revenue beat(12)
Avg Revenue beat(12)
Revenue beat(16)
Avg Revenue beat(16)
PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.94 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)4.43
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.76% | ||
| ROE | 2.16% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 13.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 27.07% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.67
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.81%
EPS 3Y-8.49%
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y7.12%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.53%
Revenue growth 3Y0.89%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y