GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
15.61 USD
+0.32 (+2.09%)
15.5 USD
-0.11 (-0.7%)
Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. GEO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GEO has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years GEO has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years GEO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GEO (6.23%) is better than 76.83% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of GEO (15.60%) is better than 76.83% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.18%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.48%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
GEO has a better Profit Margin (9.38%) than 84.15% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
GEO has a better Operating Margin (11.03%) than 75.61% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
The Gross Margin of GEO (25.51%) is worse than 60.98% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.65. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.65, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 42.68% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 58.99, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 43.90% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.02, GEO is doing worse than 65.85% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC9.4%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GEO (1.62) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.07% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -16.47% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 59.75% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
GEO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 13.33% yearly.
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 21.09 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GEO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 63.41% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GEO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 25.65.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 8.16, which indicates a very decent valuation of GEO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GEO is valued cheaper than 89.02% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 34.45.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.16 |
4.2 Price Multiples
71.95% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
GEO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 83.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.64 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 59.75% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GEO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
15.61
+0.32 (+2.09%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.96%
Inst Owner Change-1.82%
Ins Owners1.72%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.21B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (97.31%)
Short Float %6.53%
Short Ratio3.98
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)-20.11%
PT rev (3m)-19.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-11.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.03%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.42%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.16 | ||
| P/S | 0.87 | ||
| P/FCF | 83.86 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.6 | ||
| P/B | 1.45 | ||
| P/tB | 3.42 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.64 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.74%
EPS(NY)1.91
Fwd EY12.26%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.19%
OCF(TTM)1.47
OCFY9.43%
SpS17.88
BVpS10.75
TBVpS4.56
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.38
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
F-Score6
WACC9.4%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year44.7%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 22.21% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.