GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
16.69 USD
+0.04 (+0.24%)
16.6571 USD
-0.03 (-0.2%)
Taking everything into account, GEO scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GEO was compared to 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. GEO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years GEO has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years GEO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
GEO's Return On Assets of 6.23% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 78.05% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 15.60%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.83% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a better Return On Invested Capital (6.18%) than 62.20% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.25%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
GEO's Profit Margin of 9.38% is amongst the best of the industry. GEO outperforms 85.37% of its industry peers.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
GEO's Operating Margin of 11.03% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 75.61% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
With a Gross Margin value of 25.51%, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 60.98% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GEO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.69. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of GEO (1.69) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 58.99 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 58.99, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.12% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
GEO has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.02) than 65.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.69 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.54%
2.3 Liquidity
GEO has a Current Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GEO (1.62) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of GEO (1.62) is better than 64.63% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -16.47% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 26.69% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.34% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 22.55, GEO is valued on the expensive side.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.85% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.59, GEO is valued at the same level.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.68 indicates a reasonable valuation of GEO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 89.02% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.80. GEO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.68 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 70.73% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GEO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 88.19 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.03 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GEO's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of GEO may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.51
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
16.69
+0.04 (+0.24%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.84%
Inst Owner Change-1.81%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.32B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (84.54%)
Short Float %6.72%
Short Ratio4.28
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)-20.11%
PT rev (3m)-19.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-20.63%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.84%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.97%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.43%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.23%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.68 | ||
| P/S | 0.92 | ||
| P/FCF | 88.19 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.15 | ||
| P/B | 1.53 | ||
| P/tB | 3.6 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.03 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.43%
EPS(NY)1.56
Fwd EY9.36%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.13%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY8.97%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.51
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.69 |
F-Score6
WACC9.54%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.