GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
15.24 USD
+0.19 (+1.26%)
Taking everything into account, GEO scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GEO was compared to 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. GEO is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GEO was profitable.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GEO (6.23%) is better than 76.83% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 15.60%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.83% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a better Return On Invested Capital (6.18%) than 60.98% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GEO is below the industry average of 10.49%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
GEO's Profit Margin of 9.38% is amongst the best of the industry. GEO outperforms 84.15% of its industry peers.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 11.03%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.61% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
GEO's Gross Margin of 25.51% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GEO is outperformed by 60.98% of its industry peers.
GEO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.64. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of GEO (1.64) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 58.99 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 58.99, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.90% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.02, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 65.85% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.64 |
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC9.41%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GEO's Current ratio of 1.62 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 57.32% of its industry peers.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GEO has a Quick ratio of 1.62. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 67.07% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
The earnings per share for GEO have been decreasing by -30.77% on average. This is quite bad
GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -16.47%.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 59.75% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 13.33% on average per year.
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GEO is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 20.59.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 64.63% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.47), we can say GEO is valued inline with the index average.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 7.96, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of GEO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GEO is valued cheaper than 89.02% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (34.42), we can say GEO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.96 |
4.2 Price Multiples
GEO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 73.17% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 81.88 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.56 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GEO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 59.75% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.93
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GEO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
NYSE:GEO (11/24/2025, 12:19:05 PM)
15.24
+0.19 (+1.26%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.96%
Inst Owner Change-1.82%
Ins Owners1.72%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.16B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (102.1%)
Short Float %6.53%
Short Ratio3.98
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)-20.11%
PT rev (3m)-19.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-11.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.03%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.42%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.96 | ||
| P/S | 0.85 | ||
| P/FCF | 81.88 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.35 | ||
| P/B | 1.42 | ||
| P/tB | 3.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.56 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.86%
EPS(NY)1.91
Fwd EY12.56%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.22%
OCF(TTM)1.47
OCFY9.66%
SpS17.88
BVpS10.75
TBVpS4.56
PEG (NY)0.93
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.38
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.64 |
F-Score6
WACC9.41%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year44.7%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 22.21% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.