GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO)
US36162J1060 - Common Stock
Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 83 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. GEO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GEO has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
GEO has a Return On Assets (1.51%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GEO has a Return On Equity (4.17%) which is in line with its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 9.33%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 74.39% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.17%. This is below the industry average of 9.94%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (9.33%) for GEO is above the 3 year average (7.17%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.51% | ||
| ROE | 4.17% | ||
| ROIC | 9.33% |
ROA(3y)2.58%
ROA(5y)2.83%
ROE(3y)8.78%
ROE(5y)11.08%
ROIC(3y)7.17%
ROIC(5y)6.31%
1.3 Margins
GEO's Profit Margin of 1.81% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 51.22% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
GEO's Operating Margin of 13.38% is amongst the best of the industry. GEO outperforms 82.93% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has grown nicely.
GEO has a Gross Margin of 27.04%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 40.24% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 13.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.81% | ||
| GM | 27.04% |
OM growth 3Y12.09%
OM growth 5Y5.16%
PM growth 3Y-8.43%
PM growth 5Y-9.92%
GM growth 3Y4.44%
GM growth 5Y2.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.25 indicates that GEO is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GEO has a Altman-Z score of 2.25. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 48.78% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 8.52, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 8.52 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (8.52) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.25 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of GEO (1.25) is worse than 70.73% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.25 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.25 |
ROIC/WACC0.97
WACC9.62%
2.3 Liquidity
GEO has a Current Ratio of 1.10. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GEO has a worse Current ratio (1.10) than 73.17% of its industry peers.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.10. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.10, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 63.41% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.1 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.1 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 5.81% over the past year.
GEO shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -6.69% yearly.
GEO shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 24.91%.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 0.69% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.81%
EPS 3Y-8.49%
EPS 5Y-6.69%
EPS Q2Q%10.53%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)24.91%
Revenue growth 3Y0.89%
Revenue growth 5Y0.69%
Sales Q2Q%0.06%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 10.11% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.54% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-1.64%
EPS Next 2Y34.32%
EPS Next 3Y10.11%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year0.91%
Revenue Next 2Y6.47%
Revenue Next 3Y1.54%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 32.21, the valuation of GEO can be described as expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.41. GEO is around the same levels.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.67, GEO is valued on the expensive side.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 73.17% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.69, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.67 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 63.41% of the companies are valued more expensively.
68.29% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.51 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y34.32%
EPS Next 3Y10.11%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
GEO GROUP INC/THE
NYSE:GEO (1/3/2025, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 29.49 +0.18 (+0.61%)29.31
+1.02 (+3.61%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.65%
Inst Owner Change-4.2%
Ins Owners2.07%
Ins Owner Change4.72%
Market Cap4.10B
Analysts80
Price Target29.78 (1.6%)
Short Float %8.07%
Short Ratio2.84
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)11.9%
Min EPS beat(2)-15.06%
Max EPS beat(2)38.86%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)19.94%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.06%
Max EPS beat(4)63.37%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)8.6%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)13.77%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)15.31%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.84%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.63%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.06%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.89%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.63%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.8%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.29%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.15%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)62.67%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.02%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-8.18%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.45%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.85%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.67 | ||
| P/S | 1.35 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.63 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.85 | ||
| P/B | 3.11 | ||
| P/tB | 9.51 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.51 |
EPS(TTM)0.91
EY3.1%
EPS(NY)1.57
Fwd EY5.35%
FCF(TTM)1.42
FCFY4.85%
OCF(TTM)1.97
OCFY6.73%
SpS21.67
BVpS9.41
TBVpS3.08
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.51% | ||
| ROE | 4.17% | ||
| ROCE | 12.7% | ||
| ROIC | 9.33% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.55% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.32% | ||
| OM | 13.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.81% | ||
| GM | 27.04% | ||
| FCFM | 6.56% |
ROA(3y)2.58%
ROA(5y)2.83%
ROE(3y)8.78%
ROE(5y)11.08%
ROIC(3y)7.17%
ROIC(5y)6.31%
ROICexc(3y)7.57%
ROICexc(5y)6.63%
ROICexgc(3y)10.42%
ROICexgc(5y)9.04%
ROCE(3y)9.76%
ROCE(5y)8.59%
ROICexcg growth 3Y21.53%
ROICexcg growth 5Y8.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.18%
OM growth 3Y12.09%
OM growth 5Y5.16%
PM growth 3Y-8.43%
PM growth 5Y-9.92%
GM growth 3Y4.44%
GM growth 5Y2.34%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.83
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.25 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.52 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.09 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 61.64% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.55% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52% | ||
| Profit Quality | 361.76% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.1 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.1 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.25 |
F-Score5
WACC9.62%
ROIC/WACC0.97
Cap/Depr(3y)59.03%
Cap/Depr(5y)69.49%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.3%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.85%
Profit Quality(3y)228.51%
Profit Quality(5y)222.55%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.81%
EPS 3Y-8.49%
EPS 5Y-6.69%
EPS Q2Q%10.53%
EPS Next Y-1.64%
EPS Next 2Y34.32%
EPS Next 3Y10.11%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)24.91%
Revenue growth 3Y0.89%
Revenue growth 5Y0.69%
Sales Q2Q%0.06%
Revenue Next Year0.91%
Revenue Next 2Y6.47%
Revenue Next 3Y1.54%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y7.53%
EBIT growth 3Y13.08%
EBIT growth 5Y5.89%
EBIT Next Year35.7%
EBIT Next 3Y12.72%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y45.56%
FCF growth 3Y-13.97%
FCF growth 5Y21.88%
OCF growth 1Y25.06%
OCF growth 3Y-13.6%
OCF growth 5Y0.75%