GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO)
US36162J1060 - Common Stock
GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 85 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.76%, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.53% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Return On Equity (2.16%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GEO has a better Return On Invested Capital (7.38%) than 65.88% of its industry peers.
GEO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.17%. This is below the industry average of 9.78%.
The 3 year average ROIC (7.17%) for GEO is below the current ROIC(7.38%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.76% | ||
| ROE | 2.16% | ||
| ROIC | 7.38% |
ROA(3y)2.58%
ROA(5y)2.83%
ROE(3y)8.78%
ROE(5y)11.08%
ROIC(3y)7.17%
ROIC(5y)6.31%
1.3 Margins
GEO's Profit Margin of 1.14% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 43.53% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 13.49%, GEO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.35% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has grown nicely.
GEO has a Gross Margin of 27.07%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 42.35% of its industry peers.
GEO's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 13.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 27.07% |
OM growth 3Y12.09%
OM growth 5Y5.16%
PM growth 3Y-8.43%
PM growth 5Y-9.92%
GM growth 3Y4.44%
GM growth 5Y2.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.76. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.76, GEO is doing worse than 61.18% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 8.57, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 8.57 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (8.57) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.36 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.36, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 72.94% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.57 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.76 |
ROIC/WACC0.83
WACC8.86%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.26 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.26, GEO is doing worse than 67.06% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.26. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.26, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.88% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.26 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased by -4.30% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -6.69% on average over the past years.
GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -0.64%.
GEO shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 0.69% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.3%
EPS 3Y-8.49%
EPS 5Y-6.69%
EPS Q2Q%15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.64%
Revenue growth 3Y0.89%
Revenue growth 5Y0.69%
Sales Q2Q%2.24%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.98% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.04% on average per year.
EPS Next Y7.12%
EPS Next 2Y19.98%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.77%
Revenue Next 2Y2.04%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 24.16, the valuation of GEO can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 62.35% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.76), we can say GEO is valued inline with the index average.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.17, GEO is valued on the expensive side.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 75.29% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.90. GEO is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.17 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 64.71% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.59% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14.58 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.44 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates GEO does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of GEO may justify a higher PE ratio.
GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 19.98% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)3.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19.98%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
GEO GROUP INC/THE
NYSE:GEO (11/6/2024, 8:04:00 PM)
Premarket: 20.35 -1.15 (-5.35%)21.5
+6.37 (+42.1%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap3.00B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
Avg EPS beat(4)
Min EPS beat(4)
Max EPS beat(4)
EPS beat(8)
Avg EPS beat(8)
EPS beat(12)
Avg EPS beat(12)
EPS beat(16)
Avg EPS beat(16)
Revenue beat(2)
Avg Revenue beat(2)
Min Revenue beat(2)
Max Revenue beat(2)
Revenue beat(4)
Avg Revenue beat(4)
Min Revenue beat(4)
Max Revenue beat(4)
Revenue beat(8)
Avg Revenue beat(8)
Revenue beat(12)
Avg Revenue beat(12)
Revenue beat(16)
Avg Revenue beat(16)
PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.17 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)3.39
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.76% | ||
| ROE | 2.16% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 13.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 27.07% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.67
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.26 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.3%
EPS 3Y-8.49%
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y7.12%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.64%
Revenue growth 3Y0.89%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y