GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA • New York Stock Exchange • NYSE:GEO • US36162J1060
15.9 USD
+0.42 (+2.71%)
At close: Feb 6, 2026
15.9 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours: 2/6/2026, 8:04:00 PM
Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
- GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
- In the past 5 years GEO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
- GEO's Return On Assets of 6.23% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 76.25% of its industry peers.
- GEO has a Return On Equity of 15.60%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 76.25% of its industry peers.
- GEO has a better Return On Invested Capital (6.18%) than 62.50% of its industry peers.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.58%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
- GEO has a better Profit Margin (9.38%) than 85.00% of its industry peers.
- GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- GEO's Operating Margin of 11.03% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 72.50% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
- GEO's Gross Margin of 25.51% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 41.25% of its industry peers.
- GEO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
- GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- Compared to 5 years ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
- Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.65, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
- The Altman-Z score of GEO (1.65) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 58.99 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- GEO's Debt to FCF ratio of 58.99 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 46.25% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
- GEO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.02. This is in the lower half of the industry: GEO underperforms 67.50% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.49%
2.3 Liquidity
- GEO has a Current Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- GEO has a Current ratio (1.62) which is in line with its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- GEO has a better Quick ratio (1.62) than 65.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
- Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
- Looking at the last year, GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -16.47% in the last year.
- Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 26.69% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
- Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.34% on average per year.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
- The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 21.49 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GEO.
- GEO's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 71.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.92, GEO is valued a bit cheaper.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.55, the valuation of GEO can be described as reasonable.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GEO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 88.75% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 27.78, GEO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.55 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- 73.75% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
- The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as GEO.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 84.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.62 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- GEO's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
- The decent profitability rating of GEO may justify a higher PE ratio.
- GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.44
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
15.9
+0.42 (+2.71%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)11-06 2025-11-06/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-12 2026-02-12/bmo
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change-0.39%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-5.11%
Market Cap2.21B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (93.71%)
Short Float %6.47%
Short Ratio4.82
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-20.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.55 | ||
| P/S | 0.87 | ||
| P/FCF | 84.01 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.62 | ||
| P/B | 1.45 | ||
| P/tB | 3.43 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.62 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.65%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY8.66%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.19%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY9.42%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.44
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
F-Score6
WACC9.49%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.