GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
15.98 USD
-0.55 (-3.33%)
15.98 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, GEO scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GEO was compared to 81 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years GEO has always been profitable.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
GEO's Return On Assets of 6.23% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 78.05% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of GEO (15.60%) is better than 76.83% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.18%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 62.20% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GEO is below the industry average of 10.18%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
GEO has a better Profit Margin (9.38%) than 85.37% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 11.03%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.61% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
The Gross Margin of GEO (25.51%) is worse than 60.98% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GEO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.69. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.69, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.68% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (58.99) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of GEO (1.02) is worse than 65.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.69 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.53%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.62, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.10% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GEO's Quick ratio of 1.62 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 63.41% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GEO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.68%.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -16.47%.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 26.69% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.34% on average per year.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 21.59, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of GEO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 65.85% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.38. GEO is around the same levels.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.22 indicates a reasonable valuation of GEO.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 89.02% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.83), we can say GEO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.22 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.95% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GEO is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 84.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.98 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.45
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GEO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
15.98
-0.55 (-3.33%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.84%
Inst Owner Change-1.81%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.22B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (92.74%)
Short Float %6.87%
Short Ratio4.48
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)-20.11%
PT rev (3m)-19.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-20.63%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.84%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.97%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.43%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.08%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.22 | ||
| P/S | 0.88 | ||
| P/FCF | 84.44 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.67 | ||
| P/B | 1.46 | ||
| P/tB | 3.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.98 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.63%
EPS(NY)1.56
Fwd EY9.78%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.18%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY9.37%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.45
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.69 |
F-Score6
WACC9.53%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.