GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
16.51 USD
-0.17 (-1.02%)
16.6 USD
+0.09 (+0.55%)
Taking everything into account, GEO scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GEO was compared to 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. GEO is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GEO was profitable.
In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 2.45%, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.76% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Return On Equity of 6.49%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 59.76% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 6.85%, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.76% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.38%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 3.66%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
GEO has a better Operating Margin (11.55%) than 78.05% of its industry peers.
GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of GEO (25.84%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GEO is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
GEO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.56, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.56, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 63.41% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 12.95. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 12.95 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 12.95, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GEO's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GEO is outperformed by 71.95% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
ROIC/WACC0.74
WACC9.32%
2.3 Liquidity
GEO has a Current Ratio of 0.90. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GEO (0.90) is worse than 79.27% of its industry peers.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 0.90. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.90, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 71.95% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -21.35% in the last year.
The earnings per share for GEO have been decreasing by -30.77% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue for GEO has decreased by -19.08% in the past year. This is quite bad
GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.35%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%-4.35%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-19.08%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%4.77%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 59.75% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 13.33% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GEO is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 23.59.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 60.98% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.19, GEO is valued at the same level.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.63, the valuation of GEO can be described as very reasonable.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 89.02% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.50. GEO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.63 |
4.2 Price Multiples
GEO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 64.63% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 74.39% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 17.84 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.69 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 59.75% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
16.51
-0.17 (-1.02%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.96%
Inst Owner Change0.76%
Ins Owners1.72%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.34B
Revenue(TTM)2.45B
Net Income(TTM)89.71M
Analysts80
Price Target38.56 (133.56%)
Short Float %6.99%
Short Ratio4.03
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.78%
Min EPS beat(2)-22.99%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.58%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)5.28%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)0.77%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.33%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.39%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.63%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.63%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.27%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.1%
PT rev (1m)0.8%
PT rev (3m)-5.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-4.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-11.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.34%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.51%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.3%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.27%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.3%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.63 | ||
| P/S | 0.95 | ||
| P/FCF | 17.84 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.81 | ||
| P/B | 1.69 | ||
| P/tB | 4.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.69 |
EPS(TTM)0.7
EY4.24%
EPS(NY)1.91
Fwd EY11.59%
FCF(TTM)0.93
FCFY5.61%
OCF(TTM)1.68
OCFY10.19%
SpS17.32
BVpS9.77
TBVpS3.57
PEG (NY)1.06
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number12.41
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROCE | 9.14% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% | ||
| ROICexc | 7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.86% | ||
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% | ||
| FCFM | 5.34% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.67
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 83.4% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 57.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | 146.04% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
F-Score5
WACC9.32%
ROIC/WACC0.74
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.35%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%-4.35%
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-19.08%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%4.77%
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.35%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year44.7%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-13.75%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y0.3%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 22.21% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.