GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA • New York Stock Exchange • NYSE:GEO • US36162J1060

15.9 USD
+0.42 (+2.71%)
At close: Feb 6, 2026
15.9 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours: 2/6/2026, 8:04:00 PM
Fundamental Rating

4

Taking everything into account, GEO scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GEO was compared to 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. GEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • GEO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years GEO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
GEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100M -100M 200M 300M 400M

1.2 Ratios

  • GEO has a Return On Assets of 6.23%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 76.25% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of GEO (15.60%) is better than 76.25% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.18%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 62.50% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GEO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.94%. This is below the industry average of 10.58%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.23%
ROE 15.6%
ROIC 6.18%
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
GEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of GEO (9.38%) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
  • GEO has a Operating Margin of 11.03%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 72.50% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
  • GEO has a Gross Margin (25.51%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 11.03%
PM (TTM) 9.38%
GM 25.51%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
GEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15 20 25

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
  • The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
GEO Yearly Shares OutstandingGEO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M
GEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.65, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • The Altman-Z score of GEO (1.65) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • GEO's Debt to FCF ratio of 58.99 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 46.25% of its industry peers.
  • GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.02, GEO is doing worse than 67.50% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.02
Debt/FCF 58.99
Altman-Z 1.65
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.48%
GEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • GEO has a Current ratio (1.62) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • GEO has a Quick ratio of 1.62. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 65.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
GEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • GEO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.68%.
  • GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% yearly.
  • The Revenue for GEO has decreased by -16.47% in the past year. This is quite bad
  • Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%

3.2 Future

  • GEO is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 26.69% yearly.
  • GEO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.34% yearly.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
GEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B
GEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1 1.5

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6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 21.49, the valuation of GEO can be described as rather expensive.
  • GEO's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 71.25% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.92, GEO is valued a bit cheaper.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.55 indicates a reasonable valuation of GEO.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 88.75% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • GEO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 27.78, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 21.49
Fwd PE 11.55
GEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

  • 73.75% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as GEO.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 84.01
EV/EBITDA 8.62
GEO Per share dataGEO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.44
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for GEO!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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Find the best dividend stocksShow peers with best dividend

GEO GROUP INC/THE

NYSE:GEO (2/6/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 15.9 0 (0%)

15.9

+0.42 (+2.71%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)11-06
Earnings (Next)02-12
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change-0.39%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-5.11%
Market Cap2.21B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (93.71%)
Short Float %6.47%
Short Ratio4.82
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-20.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 21.49
Fwd PE 11.55
P/S 0.87
P/FCF 84.01
P/OCF 10.62
P/B 1.45
P/tB 3.43
EV/EBITDA 8.62
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.65%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY8.66%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.19%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY9.42%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.44
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.23%
ROE 15.6%
ROCE 8.24%
ROIC 6.18%
ROICexc 6.54%
ROICexgc 9%
OM 11.03%
PM (TTM) 9.38%
GM 25.51%
FCFM 1.04%
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.02
Debt/FCF 58.99
Debt/EBITDA 3.8
Cap/Depr 140.38%
Cap/Sales 7.19%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 50.98%
Profit Quality 11.1%
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
Altman-Z 1.65
F-Score6
WACC9.48%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%

GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.


What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.


Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?

The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.