GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:GEO • US36162J1060

13.31 USD
+0.05 (+0.38%)
At close: Feb 23, 2026
13.3 USD
-0.01 (-0.08%)
After Hours: 2/23/2026, 8:04:00 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Analyst Ratings Earnings Estimates Financials Ownership News
Fundamental Rating

4

Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. GEO is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year GEO was profitable.
  • In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • GEO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
  • Of the past 5 years GEO 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
GEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100M -100M 200M 300M 400M

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of GEO (6.23%) is better than 77.50% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 15.60%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.25% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.18%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.75% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GEO is below the industry average of 10.58%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.23%
ROE 15.6%
ROIC 6.18%
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
GEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • GEO has a Profit Margin of 9.38%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GEO outperforms 83.75% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
  • The Operating Margin of GEO (11.03%) is better than 71.25% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
  • GEO has a Gross Margin (25.51%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • GEO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 11.03%
PM (TTM) 9.38%
GM 25.51%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
GEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15 20 25

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • There is no outstanding debt for GEO. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
GEO Yearly Shares OutstandingGEO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M
GEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.57, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • GEO has a Altman-Z score (1.57) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 58.99 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 58.99, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 46.25% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • GEO has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.02) than 66.25% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.02
Debt/FCF 58.99
Altman-Z 1.57
ROIC/WACC0.64
WACC9.7%
GEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

  • GEO has a Current Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.25% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
GEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • GEO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 14.67%, which is quite good.
  • GEO shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -9.75% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%16.45%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 33.17% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 13.11% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y60.11%
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year14.56%
Revenue Next 2Y13.11%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
GEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B
GEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1 1.5

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Find the best growth stocksShow best growing peers

7

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 15.48 indicates a correct valuation of GEO.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 81.25% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • GEO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 26.64.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.67, which indicates a very decent valuation of GEO.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 91.25% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 27.75, GEO is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.48
Fwd PE 9.67
GEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 80.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as GEO.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 70.33
EV/EBITDA 7.87
GEO Per share dataGEO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • GEO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 33.17% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.26
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for GEO!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

More info and screens

Find the best dividend stocksShow peers with best dividend

GEO GROUP INC/THE

NYSE:GEO (2/23/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 13.3 -0.01 (-0.08%)

13.31

+0.05 (+0.38%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)02-12
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change-3.86%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-3.23%
Market Cap1.85B
Revenue(TTM)N/A
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (131.4%)
Short Float %6.33%
Short Ratio4.5
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.91%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.48
Fwd PE 9.67
P/S 0.73
P/FCF 70.33
P/OCF 8.89
P/B 1.22
P/tB 2.87
EV/EBITDA 7.87
EPS(TTM)0.86
EY6.46%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY10.35%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.42%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY11.25%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)0.26
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number14.54
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.23%
ROE 15.6%
ROCE 8.24%
ROIC 6.18%
ROICexc 6.54%
ROICexgc 9%
OM 11.03%
PM (TTM) 9.38%
GM 25.51%
FCFM 1.04%
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.02
Debt/FCF 58.99
Debt/EBITDA 3.8
Cap/Depr 140.38%
Cap/Sales 7.19%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 50.98%
Profit Quality 11.1%
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
Altman-Z 1.57
F-Score6
WACC9.7%
ROIC/WACC0.64
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.67%
EPS 3Y-9.75%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%92.31%
EPS Next Y60.11%
EPS Next 2Y33.17%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%16.45%
Revenue Next Year14.56%
Revenue Next 2Y13.11%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%

GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.


What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Undervalued.


Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 60.11% in the next year.


Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?

The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.