GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
17.085 USD
-0.02 (-0.15%)
GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years GEO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 6.23%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.83% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Return On Equity of 15.60% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 76.83% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.18%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GEO is below the industry average of 10.25%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.38%, GEO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.37% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 11.03%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.61% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 25.51%, GEO is doing worse than 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.71. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.71, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.68% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 43.90% of its industry peers.
GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.02, GEO is doing worse than 65.85% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.71 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.49%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.10% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.62, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.85% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% yearly.
Looking at the last year, GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -16.47% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
GEO is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 26.69% yearly.
GEO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.34% yearly.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 23.09, the valuation of GEO can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 60.98% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GEO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.49.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.93, the valuation of GEO can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GEO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.02% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.69.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.93 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 70.73% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as GEO.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 90.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.18 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of GEO may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.55
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
NYSE:GEO (12/8/2025, 11:24:40 AM)
17.085
-0.02 (-0.15%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.84%
Inst Owner Change-1.81%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.38B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (80.28%)
Short Float %6.72%
Short Ratio4.28
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)-20.11%
PT rev (3m)-19.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-20.63%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.84%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.97%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.43%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.23%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.93 | ||
| P/S | 0.94 | ||
| P/FCF | 90.28 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.41 | ||
| P/B | 1.56 | ||
| P/tB | 3.68 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.18 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.33%
EPS(NY)1.56
Fwd EY9.15%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.11%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY8.76%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.55
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.71 |
F-Score6
WACC9.49%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.