GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
16.74 USD
+0.55 (+3.4%)
16.96 USD
+0.22 (+1.31%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to GEO. GEO was compared to 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. GEO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years GEO has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years GEO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 6.23%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.50% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Return On Equity of 15.60% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 77.50% of its industry peers.
GEO's Return On Invested Capital of 6.18% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 63.75% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.60%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.38%, GEO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
GEO has a Operating Margin of 11.03%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 73.75% of its industry peers.
GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of GEO (25.51%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
GEO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.68. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
GEO's Altman-Z score of 1.68 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 42.50% of its industry peers.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 58.99 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 58.99, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 47.50% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GEO has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.02) than 65.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.68 |
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC9.4%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GEO (1.62) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GEO has a Quick Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that GEO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of GEO (1.62) is better than 63.75% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GEO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.68%.
The earnings per share for GEO have been decreasing by -30.77% on average. This is quite bad
The Revenue for GEO has decreased by -16.47% in the past year. This is quite bad
GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
GEO is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 26.69% yearly.
GEO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.34% yearly.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 22.62 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GEO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 68.75% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.00, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.16 indicates a correct valuation of GEO.
86.25% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.70, GEO is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.16 |
4.2 Price Multiples
GEO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 73.75% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 88.45 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.86 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.52
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
16.74
+0.55 (+3.4%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.33B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (83.99%)
Short Float %7.01%
Short Ratio4.73
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-20.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.16 | ||
| P/S | 0.92 | ||
| P/FCF | 88.45 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.18 | ||
| P/B | 1.53 | ||
| P/tB | 3.61 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.86 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.42%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY8.23%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.13%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY8.94%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.52
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.68 |
F-Score6
WACC9.4%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.