GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
17.11 USD
-0.05 (-0.29%)
17.1 USD
-0.01 (-0.06%)
Taking everything into account, GEO scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GEO was compared to 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. GEO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GEO was profitable.
In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GEO has a better Return On Assets (6.23%) than 76.83% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of GEO (15.60%) is better than 76.83% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 6.18%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.94%. This is below the industry average of 10.51%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
GEO has a better Profit Margin (9.38%) than 84.15% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 11.03%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.61% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 25.51%, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 60.98% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GEO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GEO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.71. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.71, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.68% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 58.99 years to pay back of all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (58.99) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.02, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 65.85% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.71 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.46%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.32% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GEO's Quick ratio of 1.62 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 67.07% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
The earnings per share for GEO have been decreasing by -30.77% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -16.47% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 26.69% on average per year.
GEO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.34% yearly.
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 23.12, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of GEO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 60.98% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.46), we can say GEO is valued inline with the index average.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.94, the valuation of GEO can be described as very reasonable.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 89.02% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 36.10, GEO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.12 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.94 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 68.29% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 90.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.19 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GEO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
17.11
-0.05 (-0.29%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.84%
Inst Owner Change-1.82%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.38B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (80.01%)
Short Float %6.72%
Short Ratio4.28
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)-20.11%
PT rev (3m)-19.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-11.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-14.35%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.42%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.12 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.94 | ||
| P/S | 0.94 | ||
| P/FCF | 90.41 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.43 | ||
| P/B | 1.57 | ||
| P/tB | 3.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.19 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.32%
EPS(NY)1.91
Fwd EY11.19%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.11%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY8.75%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.04
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.71 |
F-Score6
WACC9.46%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year44.7%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 22.21% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.