GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
16.83 USD
-0.36 (-2.09%)
16.83 USD
0 (0%)
Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GEO was profitable.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years GEO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GEO has a Return On Assets of 6.23%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 78.05% of its industry peers.
GEO has a Return On Equity of 15.60%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 76.83% of its industry peers.
GEO has a Return On Invested Capital of 6.18%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 62.20% of its industry peers.
GEO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.94%. This is below the industry average of 10.14%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
GEO's Profit Margin of 9.38% is amongst the best of the industry. GEO outperforms 85.37% of its industry peers.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of GEO (11.03%) is better than 75.61% of its industry peers.
GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
GEO's Gross Margin of 25.51% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GEO is outperformed by 60.98% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.71. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
GEO's Altman-Z score of 1.71 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 41.46% of its industry peers.
GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 58.99 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 58.99, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.12% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GEO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.02. This is in the lower half of the industry: GEO underperforms 65.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.71 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.55%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.62, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.10% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.62, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.63% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% yearly.
Looking at the last year, GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -16.47% in the last year.
GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 26.69% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.34% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GEO is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 22.74.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 65.85% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.54, GEO is valued at the same level.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 10.77, which indicates a very decent valuation of GEO.
89.02% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.78.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.74 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.77 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.73% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GEO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 88.93 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GEO's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.52
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GEO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
16.83
-0.36 (-2.09%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.84%
Inst Owner Change-1.81%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.34B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (83.01%)
Short Float %6.72%
Short Ratio4.28
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)-20.11%
PT rev (3m)-19.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-20.63%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.84%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.97%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.43%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.23%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.74 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.77 | ||
| P/S | 0.93 | ||
| P/FCF | 88.93 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.24 | ||
| P/B | 1.54 | ||
| P/tB | 3.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.4%
EPS(NY)1.56
Fwd EY9.29%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.12%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY8.9%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.52
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.71 |
F-Score6
WACC9.55%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.