GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA • New York Stock Exchange • NYSE:GEO • US36162J1060

15.89 USD
+0.41 (+2.65%)
Last: Feb 6, 2026, 01:26 PM
Fundamental Rating

4

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to GEO. GEO was compared to 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. GEO has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
  • GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
  • GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
GEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGEO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100M -100M 200M 300M 400M

1.2 Ratios

  • GEO's Return On Assets of 6.23% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 76.25% of its industry peers.
  • With a decent Return On Equity value of 15.60%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.25% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.18%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 62.50% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GEO is below the industry average of 10.58%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.23%
ROE 15.6%
ROIC 6.18%
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
GEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGEO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • GEO has a Profit Margin of 9.38%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GEO outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GEO has declined.
  • With a decent Operating Margin value of 11.03%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 72.50% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
  • GEO has a Gross Margin (25.51%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 11.03%
PM (TTM) 9.38%
GM 25.51%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
GEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGEO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15 20 25

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GEO is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
  • GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
GEO Yearly Shares OutstandingGEO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M
GEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGEO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

  • GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.65. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • The Altman-Z score of GEO (1.65) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GEO outperforms 46.25% of its industry peers.
  • GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.02, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 67.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.02
Debt/FCF 58.99
Altman-Z 1.65
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.56%
GEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGEO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • GEO's Current ratio of 1.62 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 57.50% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.62, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
GEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGEO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M

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3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
  • GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -16.47%.
  • Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%

3.2 Future

  • GEO is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 26.69% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.34% on average per year.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
GEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGEO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1B 2B 3B
GEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGEO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 0.5 1 1.5

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6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • GEO is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 21.47.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 71.25% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.67. GEO is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.54, the valuation of GEO can be described as reasonable.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 88.75% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.20.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 21.47
Fwd PE 11.54
GEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGEO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40 50

4.2 Price Multiples

  • GEO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GEO is cheaper than 73.75% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GEO is on the same level as its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 83.96
EV/EBITDA 8.62
GEO Per share dataGEO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of GEO may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.44
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • GEO does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

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GEO GROUP INC/THE

NYSE:GEO (2/6/2026, 1:26:09 PM)

15.89

+0.41 (+2.65%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)11-06
Earnings (Next)02-12
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change-0.39%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-5.11%
Market Cap2.21B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (93.83%)
Short Float %6.47%
Short Ratio4.82
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-20.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 21.47
Fwd PE 11.54
P/S 0.87
P/FCF 83.96
P/OCF 10.61
P/B 1.45
P/tB 3.42
EV/EBITDA 8.62
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.66%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY8.67%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.19%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY9.42%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.44
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.23%
ROE 15.6%
ROCE 8.24%
ROIC 6.18%
ROICexc 6.54%
ROICexgc 9%
OM 11.03%
PM (TTM) 9.38%
GM 25.51%
FCFM 1.04%
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.02
Debt/FCF 58.99
Debt/EBITDA 3.8
Cap/Depr 140.38%
Cap/Sales 7.19%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 50.98%
Profit Quality 11.1%
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.62
Altman-Z 1.65
F-Score6
WACC9.56%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%

GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.


What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?

GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.


Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?

The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.