GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA • New York Stock Exchange • NYSE:GEO • US36162J1060
15.75 USD
-0.09 (-0.57%)
At close: Feb 3, 2026
15.77 USD
+0.02 (+0.13%)
After Hours: 2/3/2026, 8:20:37 PM
Overall GEO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GEO against 80 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. While GEO is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GEO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
- In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
- GEO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
- GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 6.23%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- With a decent Return On Equity value of 15.60%, GEO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- GEO has a Return On Invested Capital of 6.18%. This is in the better half of the industry: GEO outperforms 62.50% of its industry peers.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GEO is below the industry average of 10.58%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
- GEO's Profit Margin of 9.38% is amongst the best of the industry. GEO outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
- GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 11.03%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.50% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
- With a Gross Margin value of 25.51%, GEO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.25% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GEO is destroying value.
- GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- The debt/assets ratio for GEO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.66. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
- GEO's Altman-Z score of 1.66 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 45.00% of its industry peers.
- GEO has a debt to FCF ratio of 58.99. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GEO would need 58.99 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (58.99) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- GEO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- GEO's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GEO is outperformed by 67.50% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.57%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- GEO has a Current ratio (1.62) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.62, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
- Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
- GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -16.47%.
- The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 26.69% on average per year.
- GEO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.34% yearly.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 21.28 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GEO.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 71.25% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.18. GEO is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.44, the valuation of GEO can be described as reasonable.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GEO is valued cheaper than 87.50% of the companies in the same industry.
- The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 25.51. GEO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.28 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.44 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 73.75% of the companies in the same industry.
- The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as GEO.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 83.22 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.71 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
- GEO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
- A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.43
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
15.75
-0.09 (-0.57%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)11-06 2025-11-06/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-12 2026-02-12/bmo
Inst Owners94.99%
Inst Owner Change-0.39%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-5.11%
Market Cap2.19B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (95.56%)
Short Float %6.47%
Short Ratio4.82
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-20.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.28 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.44 | ||
| P/S | 0.87 | ||
| P/FCF | 83.22 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.52 | ||
| P/B | 1.44 | ||
| P/tB | 3.39 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.71 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.7%
EPS(NY)1.38
Fwd EY8.74%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.2%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY9.51%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.43
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
F-Score6
WACC9.57%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y35.5%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
What is the valuation status of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.