GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
14.931 USD
+0.03 (+0.21%)
Taking everything into account, GEO scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GEO was compared to 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GEO while its profitability can be described as average. GEO scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GEO has been profitable.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.45%, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.32% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 6.49%, GEO is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.32% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.85%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.94%. This is below the industry average of 10.48%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
GEO has a Profit Margin (3.66%) which is in line with its industry peers.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 11.55%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.05% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
GEO has a Gross Margin of 25.84%. This is in the lower half of the industry: GEO underperforms 60.98% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GEO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GEO is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
GEO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
GEO has an Altman-Z score of 1.50. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.50, GEO is doing worse than 64.63% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 12.95, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 12.95 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GEO's Debt to FCF ratio of 12.95 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 51.22% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
GEO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07. This is in the lower half of the industry: GEO underperforms 71.95% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.5 |
ROIC/WACC0.73
WACC9.4%
2.3 Liquidity
GEO has a Current Ratio of 0.90. This is a bad value and indicates that GEO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.90, GEO is doing worse than 78.05% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.90 indicates that GEO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.90, GEO is not doing good in the industry: 69.51% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GEO have decreased strongly by -18.68% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -30.77% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.44% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, GEO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.44%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GEO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 59.75% on average per year.
GEO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 13.33% yearly.
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 20.18 indicates a rather expensive valuation of GEO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than 64.63% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 25.47. GEO is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.80, the valuation of GEO can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GEO is cheaper than 89.02% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (35.42), we can say GEO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.8 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 68.29% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 16.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.08 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GEO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 59.75% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.91
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
NYSE:GEO (11/20/2025, 3:39:06 PM)
14.931
+0.03 (+0.21%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.96%
Inst Owner Change-1.75%
Ins Owners1.72%
Ins Owner Change-6.8%
Market Cap2.11B
Revenue(TTM)2.42B
Net Income(TTM)89.71M
Analysts80
Price Target38.56 (158.25%)
Short Float %6.53%
Short Ratio3.98
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.78%
Min EPS beat(2)-22.99%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.58%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)5.28%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)0.77%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.33%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.39%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.63%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.63%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.27%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.1%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.48%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.34%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.89%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.08%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.8 | ||
| P/S | 0.86 | ||
| P/FCF | 16.13 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.87 | ||
| P/B | 1.53 | ||
| P/tB | 4.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.08 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.96%
EPS(NY)1.91
Fwd EY12.82%
FCF(TTM)0.93
FCFY6.2%
OCF(TTM)1.68
OCFY11.27%
SpS17.32
BVpS9.77
TBVpS3.57
PEG (NY)0.91
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number12.76
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.45% | ||
| ROE | 6.49% | ||
| ROCE | 9.14% | ||
| ROIC | 6.85% | ||
| ROICexc | 7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.86% | ||
| OM | 11.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.66% | ||
| GM | 25.84% | ||
| FCFM | 5.34% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.67
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 12.95 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 83.4% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 57.84% | ||
| Profit Quality | 146.04% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.5 |
F-Score5
WACC9.4%
ROIC/WACC0.73
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y22.21%
EPS Next 2Y59.75%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.44%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year7.07%
Revenue Next 2Y13.33%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.35%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year44.7%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-13.75%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y0.3%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 22.21% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.