GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GEO - US36162J1060 - Common Stock
16.65 USD
-0.13 (-0.77%)
17.07 USD
+0.42 (+2.52%)
Taking everything into account, GEO scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GEO was compared to 82 industry peers in the Commercial Services & Supplies industry. GEO has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GEO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GEO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GEO had a positive cash flow from operations.
GEO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
GEO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 6.23%, GEO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.83% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO has a better Return On Equity (15.60%) than 76.83% of its industry peers.
GEO's Return On Invested Capital of 6.18% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 60.98% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GEO is below the industry average of 10.25%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.38%, GEO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.37% of the companies in the same industry.
GEO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
GEO's Operating Margin of 11.03% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GEO outperforms 75.61% of its industry peers.
GEO's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
GEO's Gross Margin of 25.51% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GEO is outperformed by 60.98% of its industry peers.
GEO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% |
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GEO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has more shares outstanding
GEO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GEO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.70, we must say that GEO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
GEO has a Altman-Z score (1.70) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GEO is 58.99, which is on the high side as it means it would take GEO, 58.99 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GEO has a Debt to FCF ratio (58.99) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is on the high side and indicates that GEO has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.02, GEO is doing worse than 65.85% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.7 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.52%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GEO has a Current ratio (1.62) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.62 indicates that GEO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GEO has a better Quick ratio (1.62) than 65.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GEO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.68%.
The earnings per share for GEO have been decreasing by -30.77% on average. This is quite bad
GEO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -16.47%.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.44% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 26.69% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
GEO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.34% yearly.
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 22.50, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of GEO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GEO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 64.63% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GEO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.28), we can say GEO is valued inline with the index average.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.65 indicates a reasonable valuation of GEO.
89.02% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
GEO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.52.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.65 |
4.2 Price Multiples
70.73% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GEO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as GEO.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 87.98 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of GEO may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as GEO's earnings are expected to grow with 26.69% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.51
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GEO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
16.65
-0.13 (-0.77%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCommercial & Professional Services
GICS IndustryCommercial Services & Supplies
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.84%
Inst Owner Change-1.81%
Ins Owners1.75%
Ins Owner Change-6.33%
Market Cap2.32B
Revenue(TTM)2.53B
Net Income(TTM)237.33M
Analysts80
Price Target30.8 (84.98%)
Short Float %6.72%
Short Ratio4.28
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.09%
Min EPS beat(2)7.62%
Max EPS beat(2)32.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.91%
Min EPS beat(4)-44.81%
Max EPS beat(4)32.55%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)6.51%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)3.43%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)8.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.69%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.15%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.69%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0%
PT rev (1m)-20.11%
PT rev (3m)-19.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-20.63%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.84%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.97%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.43%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.23%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.65 | ||
| P/S | 0.92 | ||
| P/FCF | 87.98 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.12 | ||
| P/B | 1.52 | ||
| P/tB | 3.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
EPS(TTM)0.74
EY4.44%
EPS(NY)1.56
Fwd EY9.39%
FCF(TTM)0.19
FCFY1.14%
OCF(TTM)1.5
OCFY8.99%
SpS18.18
BVpS10.93
TBVpS4.64
PEG (NY)1.51
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number13.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.23% | ||
| ROE | 15.6% | ||
| ROCE | 8.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.54% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9% | ||
| OM | 11.03% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.38% | ||
| GM | 25.51% | ||
| FCFM | 1.04% |
ROA(3y)2.34%
ROA(5y)2.22%
ROE(3y)7.12%
ROE(5y)8.19%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)6.71%
ROICexc(3y)8.16%
ROICexc(5y)7.05%
ROICexgc(3y)11.32%
ROICexgc(5y)9.67%
ROCE(3y)10.59%
ROCE(5y)8.94%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.53%
OM growth 3Y0.06%
OM growth 5Y1.08%
PM growth 3Y-26.63%
PM growth 5Y-28.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y1.46%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 58.99 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.19% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 50.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 11.1% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.7 |
F-Score6
WACC9.52%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)62.7%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.04%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.35%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.55%
Profit Quality(3y)310.14%
Profit Quality(5y)305.57%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.68%
EPS 3Y-19.54%
EPS 5Y-30.77%
EPS Q2Q%19.05%
EPS Next Y14.92%
EPS Next 2Y44.36%
EPS Next 3Y26.69%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.47%
Revenue growth 3Y2.41%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.44%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year6.86%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y7.34%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-31.14%
EBIT growth 3Y2.47%
EBIT growth 5Y0.63%
EBIT Next Year40.31%
EBIT Next 3Y18.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-88.55%
FCF growth 3Y-8.46%
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-30.87%
OCF growth 3Y-5.01%
OCF growth 5Y-6.45%
GEO GROUP INC/THE / GEO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GEO.
Can you provide the valuation status for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GEO GROUP INC/THE?
GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GEO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is expected to grow by 14.92% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GEO GROUP INC/THE sustainable?
The dividend rating of GEO GROUP INC/THE (GEO) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.