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CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:CMG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1696561059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

58.32  +0.49 (+0.85%)

Fundamental Rating

7

We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to CMG. CMG was compared to 134 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CMG has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. CMG shows excellent growth, but is valued quite expensive already. This makes CMG very considerable for growth and quality investing!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year CMG was profitable.
In the past year CMG had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years CMG has been profitable.
CMG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
CMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B 1.5B

1.2 Ratios

Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 16.47%, CMG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 96.18% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG's Return On Equity of 41.08% is amongst the best of the industry. CMG outperforms 92.37% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 18.07%, CMG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.84% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CMG is above the industry average of 10.55%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (18.07%) for CMG is above the 3 year average (14.38%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.47%
ROE 41.08%
ROIC 18.07%
ROA(3y)12.69%
ROA(5y)10.17%
ROE(3y)35.51%
ROE(5y)28.99%
ROIC(3y)14.38%
ROIC(5y)11.23%
CMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 20 30 40

1.3 Margins

CMG has a Profit Margin of 13.51%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CMG outperforms 80.92% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CMG has grown nicely.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 17.27%, CMG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 72.52% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 31.86%, CMG is not doing good in the industry: 74.81% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CMG has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 17.27%
PM (TTM) 13.51%
GM 31.86%
OM growth 3Y43.55%
OM growth 5Y17.44%
PM growth 3Y27.93%
PM growth 5Y27.95%
GM growth 3Y8.6%
GM growth 5Y3.83%
CMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 20 30

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8

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

CMG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for CMG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for CMG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
CMG has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
CMG Yearly Shares OutstandingCMG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B 1.5B
CMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

CMG has an Altman-Z score of 11.00. This indicates that CMG is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 11.00, CMG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.71% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Altman-Z 11
ROIC/WACC1.97
WACC9.17%
CMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.62 indicates that CMG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
CMG has a better Current ratio (1.62) than 77.10% of its industry peers.
CMG has a Quick Ratio of 1.57. This is a normal value and indicates that CMG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.57, CMG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.10% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.57
CMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B 1.5B

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8

3. Growth

3.1 Past

CMG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 26.71%, which is quite impressive.
CMG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 38.26% yearly.
CMG shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 15.19%.
CMG shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.20% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)26.71%
EPS 3Y61.16%
EPS 5Y38.26%
EPS Q2Q%18.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)15.19%
Revenue growth 3Y18.15%
Revenue growth 5Y15.2%
Sales Q2Q%13.01%

3.2 Future

CMG is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 20.46% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 13.52% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y25.75%
EPS Next 2Y21.91%
EPS Next 3Y20.89%
EPS Next 5Y20.46%
Revenue Next Year15%
Revenue Next 2Y14.15%
Revenue Next 3Y13.92%
Revenue Next 5Y13.52%

3.3 Evolution

The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
CMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
CMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 1 2 3 4

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

A Price/Earnings ratio of 54.00 indicates a quite expensive valuation of CMG.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as CMG.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.42. CMG is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 43.72, CMG can be considered very expensive at the moment.
CMG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. CMG is more expensive than 60.31% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 24.39.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 54
Fwd PE 43.72
CMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

75.57% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than CMG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
CMG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 63.52
EV/EBITDA 34.37
CMG Per share dataCMG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of CMG may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as CMG's earnings are expected to grow with 20.89% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)2.1
PEG (5Y)1.41
EPS Next 2Y21.91%
EPS Next 3Y20.89%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for CMG!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC

NYSE:CMG (1/29/2025, 2:34:09 PM)

58.32

+0.49 (+0.85%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)10-29 2024-10-29/amc
Earnings (Next)02-04 2025-02-04/amc
Inst Owners88.08%
Inst Owner Change-0.02%
Ins Owners0.36%
Ins Owner Change6.52%
Market Cap79.47B
Analysts82
Price Target68.4 (17.28%)
Short Float %1.76%
Short Ratio2.6
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)6.1%
Min EPS beat(2)5.96%
Max EPS beat(2)6.24%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)7.68%
Min EPS beat(4)5.17%
Max EPS beat(4)13.34%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)5.97%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)4.75%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)5.07%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.83%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.84%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.17%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.17%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.86%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.01%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.9%
PT rev (1m)2.39%
PT rev (3m)4.85%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.39%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.5%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.03%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.45%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.76%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.14%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 54
Fwd PE 43.72
P/S 7.23
P/FCF 63.52
P/OCF 43.1
P/B 21.99
P/tB 22.12
EV/EBITDA 34.37
EPS(TTM)1.08
EY1.85%
EPS(NY)1.33
Fwd EY2.29%
FCF(TTM)0.92
FCFY1.57%
OCF(TTM)1.35
OCFY2.32%
SpS8.06
BVpS2.65
TBVpS2.64
PEG (NY)2.1
PEG (5Y)1.41
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.47%
ROE 41.08%
ROCE 23.79%
ROIC 18.07%
ROICexc 21.81%
ROICexgc 21.88%
OM 17.27%
PM (TTM) 13.51%
GM 31.86%
FCFM 11.39%
ROA(3y)12.69%
ROA(5y)10.17%
ROE(3y)35.51%
ROE(5y)28.99%
ROIC(3y)14.38%
ROIC(5y)11.23%
ROICexc(3y)17.39%
ROICexc(5y)13.66%
ROICexgc(3y)17.47%
ROICexgc(5y)13.73%
ROCE(3y)18.93%
ROCE(5y)14.79%
ROICexcg growth 3Y53.07%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-2.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y53.14%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.02%
OM growth 3Y43.55%
OM growth 5Y17.44%
PM growth 3Y27.93%
PM growth 5Y27.95%
GM growth 3Y8.6%
GM growth 5Y3.83%
F-Score9
Asset Turnover1.22
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Debt/EBITDA 0
Cap/Depr 176.05%
Cap/Sales 5.4%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 82.55%
Profit Quality 84.28%
Current Ratio 1.62
Quick Ratio 1.57
Altman-Z 11
F-Score9
WACC9.17%
ROIC/WACC1.97
Cap/Depr(3y)172.12%
Cap/Depr(5y)165.96%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.7%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.86%
Profit Quality(3y)107.32%
Profit Quality(5y)102.87%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)26.71%
EPS 3Y61.16%
EPS 5Y38.26%
EPS Q2Q%18.84%
EPS Next Y25.75%
EPS Next 2Y21.91%
EPS Next 3Y20.89%
EPS Next 5Y20.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)15.19%
Revenue growth 3Y18.15%
Revenue growth 5Y15.2%
Sales Q2Q%13.01%
Revenue Next Year15%
Revenue Next 2Y14.15%
Revenue Next 3Y13.92%
Revenue Next 5Y13.52%
EBIT growth 1Y24.12%
EBIT growth 3Y69.61%
EBIT growth 5Y35.3%
EBIT Next Year47.19%
EBIT Next 3Y27%
EBIT Next 5Y23.24%
FCF growth 1Y38.61%
FCF growth 3Y61.46%
FCF growth 5Y29.62%
OCF growth 1Y35.57%
OCF growth 3Y39.02%
OCF growth 5Y23.47%