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CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:CMG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1696561059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

56.77  -1.47 (-2.52%)

After market: 56.77 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

6

We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to CMG. CMG was compared to 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making CMG a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. CMG shows excellent growth, but is valued quite expensive already. With these ratings, CMG could be worth investigating further for growth and quality investing!.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

CMG had positive earnings in the past year.
CMG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years CMG has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years CMG had a positive operating cash flow.
CMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

1.2 Ratios

Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 17.26%, CMG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.49% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 44.73%, CMG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.73% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG has a Return On Invested Capital of 18.96%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CMG outperforms 91.73% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CMG is above the industry average of 13.81%.
The 3 year average ROIC (16.89%) for CMG is below the current ROIC(18.96%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 17.26%
ROE 44.73%
ROIC 18.96%
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
CMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30 40

1.3 Margins

CMG's Profit Margin of 13.59% is amongst the best of the industry. CMG outperforms 84.21% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CMG has grown nicely.
CMG has a Operating Margin of 17.25%. This is in the better half of the industry: CMG outperforms 73.68% of its industry peers.
CMG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 31.40%, CMG is doing worse than 74.44% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CMG has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 17.25%
PM (TTM) 13.59%
GM 31.4%
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
CMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30

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8

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CMG is creating value.
CMG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, CMG has less shares outstanding
There is no outstanding debt for CMG. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
CMG Yearly Shares OutstandingCMG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B
CMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

CMG has an Altman-Z score of 10.76. This indicates that CMG is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of CMG (10.76) is better than 96.99% of its industry peers.
There is no outstanding debt for CMG. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Altman-Z 10.76
ROIC/WACC2.12
WACC8.93%
CMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.52 indicates that CMG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.52, CMG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.19% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG has a Quick Ratio of 1.48. This is a normal value and indicates that CMG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
CMG's Quick ratio of 1.48 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CMG outperforms 77.44% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.52
Quick Ratio 1.48
CMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

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7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

CMG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 20.44%, which is quite impressive.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 31.99% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
CMG shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 12.57%.
Measured over the past years, CMG shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)20.44%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%8.45%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.57%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%6.42%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 17.83% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
CMG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 12.64% yearly.
EPS Next Y8.64%
EPS Next 2Y13.3%
EPS Next 3Y14.78%
EPS Next 5Y17.83%
Revenue Next Year8.18%
Revenue Next 2Y10.43%
Revenue Next 3Y11.03%
Revenue Next 5Y12.64%

3.3 Evolution

The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
CMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 10B 20B 30B
CMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 1 2 3 4

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

CMG is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 49.37.
CMG's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
CMG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.21.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 39.23, the valuation of CMG can be described as expensive.
CMG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.70, CMG is valued quite expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 49.37
Fwd PE 39.23
CMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CMG is valued a bit more expensive than 74.44% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 51.43
EV/EBITDA 32.9
CMG Per share dataCMG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of CMG may justify a higher PE ratio.
CMG's earnings are expected to grow with 14.78% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)5.71
PEG (5Y)1.54
EPS Next 2Y13.3%
EPS Next 3Y14.78%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

CMG does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC

NYSE:CMG (7/2/2025, 4:08:05 PM)

After market: 56.77 0 (0%)

56.77

-1.47 (-2.52%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)04-23 2025-04-23/amc
Earnings (Next)07-23 2025-07-23/amc
Inst Owners89.97%
Inst Owner Change1.54%
Ins Owners0.34%
Ins Owner Change1.28%
Market Cap76.49B
Analysts82.05
Price Target59.85 (5.43%)
Short Float %1.87%
Short Ratio1.9
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)1.59%
Min EPS beat(2)1.04%
Max EPS beat(2)2.13%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)3.85%
Min EPS beat(4)1.04%
Max EPS beat(4)6.24%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)5.27%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)4.59%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)5.21%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.27%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.48%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.48%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.1%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.06%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.28%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.07%
PT rev (1m)-0.56%
PT rev (3m)-10.67%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-10.63%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.19%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.14%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.23%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 49.37
Fwd PE 39.23
P/S 6.66
P/FCF 51.43
P/OCF 36.55
P/B 21.91
P/tB 22.05
EV/EBITDA 32.9
EPS(TTM)1.15
EY2.03%
EPS(NY)1.45
Fwd EY2.55%
FCF(TTM)1.1
FCFY1.94%
OCF(TTM)1.55
OCFY2.74%
SpS8.53
BVpS2.59
TBVpS2.57
PEG (NY)5.71
PEG (5Y)1.54
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 17.26%
ROE 44.73%
ROCE 24.92%
ROIC 18.96%
ROICexc 23.06%
ROICexgc 23.14%
OM 17.25%
PM (TTM) 13.59%
GM 31.4%
FCFM 12.95%
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
ROICexc(3y)20.4%
ROICexc(5y)16.1%
ROICexgc(3y)20.47%
ROICexgc(5y)16.17%
ROCE(3y)22.21%
ROCE(5y)17.46%
ROICexcg growth 3Y18.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y16.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y18.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y16.87%
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Debt/EBITDA 0
Cap/Depr 178.68%
Cap/Sales 5.27%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 90.18%
Profit Quality 95.25%
Current Ratio 1.52
Quick Ratio 1.48
Altman-Z 10.76
F-Score7
WACC8.93%
ROIC/WACC2.12
Cap/Depr(3y)173.27%
Cap/Depr(5y)170.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.72%
Profit Quality(3y)97.3%
Profit Quality(5y)100.43%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)20.44%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%8.45%
EPS Next Y8.64%
EPS Next 2Y13.3%
EPS Next 3Y14.78%
EPS Next 5Y17.83%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.57%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%6.42%
Revenue Next Year8.18%
Revenue Next 2Y10.43%
Revenue Next 3Y11.03%
Revenue Next 5Y12.64%
EBIT growth 1Y18.89%
EBIT growth 3Y32.8%
EBIT growth 5Y32.3%
EBIT Next Year27.17%
EBIT Next 3Y19.39%
EBIT Next 5Y16.81%
FCF growth 1Y49.93%
FCF growth 3Y21.65%
FCF growth 5Y31.27%
OCF growth 1Y39.97%
OCF growth 3Y17.97%
OCF growth 5Y23.88%