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CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:CMG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1696561059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

54.33  +0.36 (+0.67%)

After market: 54.43 +0.1 (+0.18%)

Fundamental Rating

6

Overall CMG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated CMG against 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CMG scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. CMG is valued quite expensive, but it does show an excellent growth. This makes CMG very considerable for growth and quality investing!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year CMG was profitable.
In the past year CMG had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years CMG has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years CMG had a positive operating cash flow.
CMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

1.2 Ratios

Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 16.67%, CMG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 96.18% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG has a better Return On Equity (41.97%) than 91.60% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 18.40%, CMG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 89.31% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CMG is in line with the industry average of 16.08%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (18.40%) for CMG is above the 3 year average (16.89%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.67%
ROE 41.97%
ROIC 18.4%
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
CMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30 40

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 13.56%, CMG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.68% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of CMG (17.18%) is better than 70.99% of its industry peers.
CMG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CMG has a worse Gross Margin (31.65%) than 76.34% of its industry peers.
CMG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 17.18%
PM (TTM) 13.56%
GM 31.65%
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
CMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30

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8

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CMG is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CMG has less shares outstanding
CMG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
CMG has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
CMG Yearly Shares OutstandingCMG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B
CMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 10.15 indicates that CMG is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 10.15, CMG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 96.18% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Altman-Z 10.15
ROIC/WACC1.97
WACC9.33%
CMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.52 indicates that CMG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.52, CMG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.28% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG has a Quick Ratio of 1.48. This is a normal value and indicates that CMG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
CMG's Quick ratio of 1.48 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CMG outperforms 74.81% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.52
Quick Ratio 1.48
CMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

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7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 25.63% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 31.99% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, CMG shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 14.61% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, CMG shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)25.63%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%20.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.61%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%13.07%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, CMG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 18.24% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 13.02% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y16.21%
EPS Next 2Y17.47%
EPS Next 3Y18.12%
EPS Next 5Y18.24%
Revenue Next Year11.79%
Revenue Next 2Y12.44%
Revenue Next 3Y12.77%
Revenue Next 5Y13.02%

3.3 Evolution

Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
CMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 10B 20B 30B
CMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 1 2 3 4

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 48.08, the valuation of CMG can be described as expensive.
CMG's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.75. CMG is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 41.47 indicates a quite expensive valuation of CMG.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as CMG.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.44, CMG is valued quite expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 48.08
Fwd PE 41.47
CMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CMG is valued a bit more expensive than 75.57% of the companies in the same industry.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as CMG.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 48.72
EV/EBITDA 31.19
CMG Per share dataCMG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates CMG does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The excellent profitability rating of CMG may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as CMG's earnings are expected to grow with 18.12% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)2.97
PEG (5Y)1.5
EPS Next 2Y17.47%
EPS Next 3Y18.12%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

CMG does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC

NYSE:CMG (3/3/2025, 7:11:42 PM)

After market: 54.43 +0.1 (+0.18%)

54.33

+0.36 (+0.67%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)02-04 2025-02-04/amc
Earnings (Next)04-22 2025-04-22/amc
Inst Owners87.62%
Inst Owner Change2.2%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change0.83%
Market Cap73.64B
Analysts82
Price Target67.16 (23.61%)
Short Float %1.69%
Short Ratio2.41
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.5%
Min EPS beat(2)1.04%
Max EPS beat(2)5.96%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)6.65%
Min EPS beat(4)1.04%
Max EPS beat(4)13.34%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)7.08%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)4.42%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)5.61%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.44%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.68%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.81%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.1%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.59%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.01%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.92%
PT rev (1m)-2.1%
PT rev (3m)0.53%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-7.44%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-7.03%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.17%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.37%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-2.56%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.53%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.36%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.27%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 48.08
Fwd PE 41.47
P/S 6.51
P/FCF 48.72
P/OCF 34.98
P/B 20.14
P/tB 20.27
EV/EBITDA 31.19
EPS(TTM)1.13
EY2.08%
EPS(NY)1.31
Fwd EY2.41%
FCF(TTM)1.12
FCFY2.05%
OCF(TTM)1.55
OCFY2.86%
SpS8.35
BVpS2.7
TBVpS2.68
PEG (NY)2.97
PEG (5Y)1.5
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.67%
ROE 41.97%
ROCE 24.18%
ROIC 18.4%
ROICexc 22.35%
ROICexgc 22.43%
OM 17.18%
PM (TTM) 13.56%
GM 31.65%
FCFM 13.36%
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
ROICexc(3y)20.4%
ROICexc(5y)16.1%
ROICexgc(3y)20.47%
ROICexgc(5y)16.17%
ROCE(3y)22.21%
ROCE(5y)17.46%
ROICexcg growth 3Y18.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y16.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y18.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y16.87%
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover1.23
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Debt/EBITDA 0
Cap/Depr 177.18%
Cap/Sales 5.25%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 92.4%
Profit Quality 98.52%
Current Ratio 1.52
Quick Ratio 1.48
Altman-Z 10.15
F-Score8
WACC9.33%
ROIC/WACC1.97
Cap/Depr(3y)173.27%
Cap/Depr(5y)170.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.72%
Profit Quality(3y)97.3%
Profit Quality(5y)100.43%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)25.63%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%20.66%
EPS Next Y16.21%
EPS Next 2Y17.47%
EPS Next 3Y18.12%
EPS Next 5Y18.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.61%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%13.07%
Revenue Next Year11.79%
Revenue Next 2Y12.44%
Revenue Next 3Y12.77%
Revenue Next 5Y13.02%
EBIT growth 1Y21.75%
EBIT growth 3Y32.8%
EBIT growth 5Y32.3%
EBIT Next Year38.39%
EBIT Next 3Y24.41%
EBIT Next 5Y19.19%
FCF growth 1Y23.61%
FCF growth 3Y21.65%
FCF growth 5Y31.27%
OCF growth 1Y18.03%
OCF growth 3Y17.97%
OCF growth 5Y23.88%