CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:CMG • US1696561059

Current stock price

30.86 USD
-1.31 (-4.07%)
At close:
30.77 USD
-0.09 (-0.29%)
After Hours:

This CMG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

9

1. CMG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • CMG had positive earnings in the past year.
  • CMG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Each year in the past 5 years CMG has been profitable.
  • CMG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
CMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of CMG (17.07%) is better than 93.65% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of CMG (54.26%) is better than 92.86% of its industry peers.
  • CMG's Return On Invested Capital of 19.21% is amongst the best of the industry. CMG outperforms 91.27% of its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CMG is significantly above the industry average of 10.65%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (18.35%) for CMG is below the current ROIC(19.21%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 17.07%
ROE 54.26%
ROIC 19.21%
ROA(3y)16.34%
ROA(5y)14.36%
ROE(3y)45.45%
ROE(5y)40.55%
ROIC(3y)18.35%
ROIC(5y)16.21%
CMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30 40 50

1.3 Margins

  • CMG's Profit Margin of 12.88% is amongst the best of the industry. CMG outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
  • CMG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • CMG's Operating Margin of 16.46% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CMG outperforms 73.81% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CMG has grown nicely.
  • CMG has a Gross Margin of 30.62%. This is in the lower half of the industry: CMG underperforms 76.19% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CMG has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 16.46%
PM (TTM) 12.88%
GM 30.62%
OM growth 3Y6.36%
OM growth 5Y24.67%
PM growth 3Y7.34%
PM growth 5Y16.72%
GM growth 3Y1.59%
GM growth 5Y4.89%
CMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

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ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

8

2. CMG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CMG is creating value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for CMG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, CMG has less shares outstanding
  • There is no outstanding debt for CMG. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
CMG Yearly Shares OutstandingCMG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B
CMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 6.26 indicates that CMG is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • The Altman-Z score of CMG (6.26) is better than 91.27% of its industry peers.
  • There is no outstanding debt for CMG. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Altman-Z 6.26
ROIC/WACC2.12
WACC9.06%
CMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

  • CMG has a Current Ratio of 1.23. This is a normal value and indicates that CMG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • CMG's Current ratio of 1.23 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CMG outperforms 62.70% of its industry peers.
  • CMG has a Quick Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that CMG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of CMG (1.19) is better than 64.29% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.23
Quick Ratio 1.19
CMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

6

3. CMG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • CMG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 2.89%.
  • Measured over the past years, CMG shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 40.17% on average per year.
  • CMG shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 5.41%.
  • Measured over the past years, CMG shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.79% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)2.89%
EPS 3Y20.93%
EPS 5Y40.17%
EPS Q2Q%0%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.41%
Revenue growth 3Y11.36%
Revenue growth 5Y14.79%
Sales Q2Q%4.86%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 15.20% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
  • CMG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 10.68% yearly.
EPS Next Y-0.68%
EPS Next 2Y8.89%
EPS Next 3Y12.22%
EPS Next 5Y15.2%
Revenue Next Year8.81%
Revenue Next 2Y9.93%
Revenue Next 3Y10.68%
Revenue Next 5Y10.68%

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • Although the future Revenue growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
CMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
CMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 1 2 3

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Find the best growth stocksShow best growing peers

2

4. CMG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • CMG is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 26.60.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as CMG.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 24.88. CMG is around the same levels.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 26.79 indicates a quite expensive valuation of CMG.
  • CMG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • CMG is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 26.6
Fwd PE 26.79
CMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of CMG indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: CMG is more expensive than 66.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • CMG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 27.77
EV/EBITDA 17.27
CMG Per share dataCMG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The excellent profitability rating of CMG may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • CMG's earnings are expected to grow with 12.22% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.66
EPS Next 2Y8.89%
EPS Next 3Y12.22%

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. CMG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for CMG!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%

More info and screens

Find the best dividend stocksShow peers with best dividend

CMG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC

NYSE:CMG (3/27/2026, 8:08:41 PM)

After market: 30.77 -0.09 (-0.29%)

30.86

-1.31 (-4.07%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)04-21
Inst Owners91.07%
Inst Owner Change-1.13%
Ins Owners0.27%
Ins Owner Change-10.51%
Market Cap40.19B
Revenue(TTM)11.93B
Net Income(TTM)1.54B
Analysts78.6
Price Target45.61 (47.8%)
Short Float %3.13%
Short Ratio2.32
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0%
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)1.88%
Min EPS beat(2)0.33%
Max EPS beat(2)3.43%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1.55%
Min EPS beat(4)0.31%
Max EPS beat(4)3.43%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)4.1%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)5.23%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)3.7%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.02%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.69%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.35%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.01%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.48%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.35%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.35%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.07%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.26%
PT rev (1m)-1.63%
PT rev (3m)-0.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.99%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-14.1%
EPS NY rev (1m)-6.36%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.21%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.96%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.05%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.89%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 26.6
Fwd PE 26.79
P/S 3.37
P/FCF 27.77
P/OCF 19.01
P/B 14.2
P/tB 14.31
EV/EBITDA 17.27
EPS(TTM)1.16
EY3.76%
EPS(NY)1.15
Fwd EY3.73%
FCF(TTM)1.11
FCFY3.6%
OCF(TTM)1.62
OCFY5.26%
SpS9.16
BVpS2.17
TBVpS2.16
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.66
Graham Number7.53
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 17.07%
ROE 54.26%
ROCE 25.15%
ROIC 19.21%
ROICexc 22.19%
ROICexgc 22.26%
OM 16.46%
PM (TTM) 12.88%
GM 30.62%
FCFM 12.14%
ROA(3y)16.34%
ROA(5y)14.36%
ROE(3y)45.45%
ROE(5y)40.55%
ROIC(3y)18.35%
ROIC(5y)16.21%
ROICexc(3y)21.98%
ROICexc(5y)19.42%
ROICexgc(3y)22.06%
ROICexgc(5y)19.49%
ROCE(3y)24.03%
ROCE(5y)21.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y7.85%
ROICexgc growth 5Y30.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y7.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y30.18%
OM growth 3Y6.36%
OM growth 5Y24.67%
PM growth 3Y7.34%
PM growth 5Y16.72%
GM growth 3Y1.59%
GM growth 5Y4.89%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.33
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Debt/EBITDA 0
Cap/Depr 184.39%
Cap/Sales 5.59%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 90.93%
Profit Quality 94.26%
Current Ratio 1.23
Quick Ratio 1.19
Altman-Z 6.26
F-Score7
WACC9.06%
ROIC/WACC2.12
Cap/Depr(3y)179.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)175.59%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.5%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.59%
Profit Quality(3y)97.43%
Profit Quality(5y)102.95%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)2.89%
EPS 3Y20.93%
EPS 5Y40.17%
EPS Q2Q%0%
EPS Next Y-0.68%
EPS Next 2Y8.89%
EPS Next 3Y12.22%
EPS Next 5Y15.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.41%
Revenue growth 3Y11.36%
Revenue growth 5Y14.79%
Sales Q2Q%4.86%
Revenue Next Year8.81%
Revenue Next 2Y9.93%
Revenue Next 3Y10.68%
Revenue Next 5Y10.68%
EBIT growth 1Y1.03%
EBIT growth 3Y18.44%
EBIT growth 5Y43.1%
EBIT Next Year18.38%
EBIT Next 3Y16.14%
EBIT Next 5Y13.79%
FCF growth 1Y-4.23%
FCF growth 3Y19.7%
FCF growth 5Y37.88%
OCF growth 1Y0.42%
OCF growth 3Y16.9%
OCF growth 5Y26.07%

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC / CMG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to CMG.


Can you provide the valuation status for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 2 / 10 to CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG). This can be considered as Overvalued.


How profitable is CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) stock?

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) has a profitability rating of 9 / 10.


What is the financial health of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) stock?

The financial health rating of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) is 8 / 10.