CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:CMG - US1696561059 - Common Stock
34.15 USD
+0.22 (+0.65%)
34.14 USD
-0.01 (-0.03%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to CMG. CMG was compared to 132 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CMG scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. While showing a medium growth rate, CMG is valued expensive at the moment. This makes CMG very considerable for quality investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CMG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year CMG had a positive cash flow from operations.
CMG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years CMG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 16.55%, CMG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 93.18% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 47.69%, CMG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.15% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 18.25%, CMG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.15% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CMG is significantly above the industry average of 10.42%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (18.25%) for CMG is above the 3 year average (16.89%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.55% | ||
| ROE | 47.69% | ||
| ROIC | 18.25% |
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of CMG (13.04%) is better than 81.82% of its industry peers.
CMG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CMG's Operating Margin of 16.55% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. CMG outperforms 73.48% of its industry peers.
CMG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CMG has a worse Gross Margin (30.89%) than 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CMG has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.04% | ||
| GM | 30.89% |
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CMG is creating value.
CMG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, CMG has less shares outstanding
There is no outstanding debt for CMG. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
2.2 Solvency
CMG has an Altman-Z score of 6.67. This indicates that CMG is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
CMG has a Altman-Z score of 6.67. This is amongst the best in the industry. CMG outperforms 89.39% of its industry peers.
CMG has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0 | ||
| Altman-Z | 6.67 |
ROIC/WACC2.1
WACC8.7%
2.3 Liquidity
CMG has a Current Ratio of 1.54. This is a normal value and indicates that CMG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of CMG (1.54) is better than 74.24% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.50 indicates that CMG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.50, CMG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.5 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CMG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 6.95%.
Measured over the past years, CMG shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 31.99% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, CMG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.31% in the last year.
CMG shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.16% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.95%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%7.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.31%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%7.51%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 12.98% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
CMG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 10.73% yearly.
EPS Next Y4.26%
EPS Next 2Y5.67%
EPS Next 3Y9.77%
EPS Next 5Y12.98%
Revenue Next Year5.65%
Revenue Next 2Y7.97%
Revenue Next 3Y9.12%
Revenue Next 5Y10.73%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
Although the future Revenue growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 29.44, which means the current valuation is very expensive for CMG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of CMG is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.41, CMG is valued at the same level.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 27.13, the valuation of CMG can be described as expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as CMG.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CMG to the average of the S&P500 Index (35.40), we can say CMG is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 27.13 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CMG is valued a bit more expensive than 65.15% of the companies in the same industry.
62.12% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CMG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 28.71 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 18.67 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates CMG does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
CMG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)6.9
PEG (5Y)0.92
EPS Next 2Y5.67%
EPS Next 3Y9.77%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for CMG!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
34.15
+0.22 (+0.65%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.32%
Inst Owner Change1.76%
Ins Owners0.31%
Ins Owner Change-6.2%
Market Cap45.16B
Revenue(TTM)11.79B
Net Income(TTM)1.54B
Analysts80
Price Target45.75 (33.97%)
Short Float %2.34%
Short Ratio1.32
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)0.32%
Min EPS beat(2)0.31%
Max EPS beat(2)0.33%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)0.95%
Min EPS beat(4)0.31%
Max EPS beat(4)2.13%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)4.32%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)4.3%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)3.8%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.11%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.69%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.19%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.48%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.07%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.29%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.31%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.3%
PT rev (1m)-16.72%
PT rev (3m)-24.27%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-14.86%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.09%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.99%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.33%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-4.38%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.55%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.58%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 27.13 | ||
| P/S | 3.83 | ||
| P/FCF | 28.71 | ||
| P/OCF | 20.39 | ||
| P/B | 14.02 | ||
| P/tB | 14.11 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 18.67 |
EPS(TTM)1.16
EY3.4%
EPS(NY)1.26
Fwd EY3.69%
FCF(TTM)1.19
FCFY3.48%
OCF(TTM)1.68
OCFY4.9%
SpS8.91
BVpS2.44
TBVpS2.42
PEG (NY)6.9
PEG (5Y)0.92
Graham Number7.97
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.55% | ||
| ROE | 47.69% | ||
| ROCE | 23.99% | ||
| ROIC | 18.25% | ||
| ROICexc | 22.11% | ||
| ROICexgc | 22.19% | ||
| OM | 16.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.04% | ||
| GM | 30.89% | ||
| FCFM | 13.35% |
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
ROICexc(3y)20.4%
ROICexc(5y)16.1%
ROICexgc(3y)20.47%
ROICexgc(5y)16.17%
ROCE(3y)22.21%
ROCE(5y)17.46%
ROICexgc growth 3Y18.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y16.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y18.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y16.87%
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 182.03% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.16% | ||
| Profit Quality | 102.38% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Altman-Z | 6.67 |
F-Score7
WACC8.7%
ROIC/WACC2.1
Cap/Depr(3y)173.27%
Cap/Depr(5y)170.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.72%
Profit Quality(3y)97.3%
Profit Quality(5y)100.43%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.95%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%7.41%
EPS Next Y4.26%
EPS Next 2Y5.67%
EPS Next 3Y9.77%
EPS Next 5Y12.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.31%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%7.51%
Revenue Next Year5.65%
Revenue Next 2Y7.97%
Revenue Next 3Y9.12%
Revenue Next 5Y10.73%
EBIT growth 1Y2.84%
EBIT growth 3Y32.8%
EBIT growth 5Y32.3%
EBIT Next Year27.06%
EBIT Next 3Y18.54%
EBIT Next 5Y14.79%
FCF growth 1Y13.4%
FCF growth 3Y21.65%
FCF growth 5Y31.27%
OCF growth 1Y15.38%
OCF growth 3Y17.97%
OCF growth 5Y23.88%
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC / CMG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to CMG.
What is the valuation status of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) stock?
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) has a profitability rating of 9 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) is 29.44 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 14.02.
Can you provide the financial health for CMG stock?
The financial health rating of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) is 8 / 10.