AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:ATSG - Nasdaq - US00922R1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to ATSG. ATSG was compared to 24 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While ATSG is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ATSG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ATSG had positive earnings in the past year.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years ATSG has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years ATSG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.70%, ATSG is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.17% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG has a Return On Equity of 1.85%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 54.17% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 2.61%, ATSG is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ATSG is significantly below the industry average of 12.37%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
1.3 Margins
ATSG's Profit Margin of 1.40% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 58.33% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ATSG has declined.
The Operating Margin of ATSG (6.94%) is better than 79.17% of its industry peers.
ATSG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of ATSG (52.60%) is better than 87.50% of its industry peers.
ATSG's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% |
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ATSG is destroying value.
ATSG has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.20, we must say that ATSG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of ATSG (1.20) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ATSG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.67. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as ATSG would need 7.67 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ATSG (7.67) is better than 66.67% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
ATSG has a Debt to Equity ratio (1.04) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.2 |
ROIC/WACC0.48
WACC5.5%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.98 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.98, ATSG is not doing good in the industry: 62.50% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.84 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
ATSG has a Quick ratio of 0.84. This is in the lower half of the industry: ATSG underperforms 70.83% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ATSG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -46.15%.
The earnings per share for ATSG have been decreasing by -14.27% on average. This is quite bad
Looking at the last year, ATSG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.25% in the last year.
ATSG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.20% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-46.15%
EPS 3Y-48.76%
EPS 5Y-14.27%
EPS Q2Q%200.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ATSG will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 39.67% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.55% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y34.88%
EPS Next 2Y39.67%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
ATSG is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 54.37.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as ATSG.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ATSG to the average of the S&P500 Index (29.35), we can say ATSG is valued expensively.
ATSG is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 20.93.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ATSG indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ATSG is cheaper than 70.83% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ATSG to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.10), we can say ATSG is valued inline with the index average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 54.37 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.93 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ATSG indicates a rather cheap valuation: ATSG is cheaper than 87.50% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ATSG indicates a rather cheap valuation: ATSG is cheaper than 95.83% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.36 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ATSG's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 39.67% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.56
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y39.67%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ATSG does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
22.29
0 (0%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change7.33%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change9.11%
Market Cap1.47B
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.96%)
Short Float %4.73%
Short Ratio2.37
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)N/A
Avg EPS beat(2)N/A
Min EPS beat(2)N/A
Max EPS beat(2)N/A
EPS beat(4)N/A
Avg EPS beat(4)N/A
Min EPS beat(4)N/A
Max EPS beat(4)N/A
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 54.37 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.93 | ||
| P/S | 0.75 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.28 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.76 | ||
| P/B | 0.99 | ||
| P/tB | 1.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.36 |
EPS(TTM)0.41
EY1.84%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.78%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.74%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY36.28%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.56
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROCE | 3.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.07% | ||
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% | ||
| FCFM | 10.29% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.81 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.64% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.87% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 735.62% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.2 |
F-Score6
WACC5.5%
ROIC/WACC0.48
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-46.15%
EPS 3Y-48.76%
EPS 5Y-14.27%
EPS Q2Q%200.96%
EPS Next Y34.88%
EPS Next 2Y39.67%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%