AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation
NASDAQ:ATSG • US00922R1059
22.48 USD
-0.01 (-0.04%)
At close: Apr 10, 2025
22.481 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours: 4/10/2025, 8:00:01 PM
This ATSG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.
Overall ATSG gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated ATSG against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. There are concerns on the financial health of ATSG while its profitability can be described as average. ATSG has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. ATSG Profitability Analysis
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year ATSG was profitable.
- In the past year ATSG had a positive cash flow from operations.
- In the past 5 years ATSG has always been profitable.
- Each year in the past 5 years ATSG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- ATSG has a Return On Assets of 0.70%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
- ATSG's Return On Equity of 1.85% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
- ATSG has a Return On Invested Capital (2.61%) which is in line with its industry peers.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ATSG is significantly below the industry average of 11.97%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
1.3 Margins
- The Profit Margin of ATSG (1.40%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- ATSG's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- ATSG has a better Operating Margin (6.94%) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ATSG has declined.
- With an excellent Gross Margin value of 52.60%, ATSG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ATSG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% |
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
2. ATSG Health Analysis
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ATSG is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
- ATSG has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- ATSG has an Altman-Z score of 1.21. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
- ATSG's Altman-Z score of 1.21 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 60.87% of its industry peers.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of ATSG is 7.67, which is on the high side as it means it would take ATSG, 7.67 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- ATSG has a better Debt to FCF ratio (7.67) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04 is on the high side and indicates that ATSG has dependencies on debt financing.
- ATSG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.04. This is in the lower half of the industry: ATSG underperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
2.3 Liquidity
- ATSG has a Current Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- ATSG's Current ratio of 0.98 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 69.57% of its industry peers.
- ATSG has a Quick Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- ATSG has a worse Quick ratio (0.84) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 |
3. ATSG Growth Analysis
3.1 Past
- ATSG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -38.46%.
- Measured over the past years, ATSG shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -10.24% on average per year.
- The Revenue has decreased by -5.25% in the past year.
- Measured over the past years, ATSG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.20% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, ATSG will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 32.30% on average per year.
- ATSG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. ATSG Valuation Analysis
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- With a Price/Earnings ratio of 25.55, ATSG can be considered very expensive at the moment.
- ATSG's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
- When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ATSG to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.29), we can say ATSG is valued inline with the index average.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11, the valuation of ATSG can be described as rather expensive.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ATSG is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.22% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 24.60, ATSG is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- ATSG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ATSG is cheaper than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ATSG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- ATSG's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
- ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. ATSG Dividend Analysis
5.1 Amount
- ATSG does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
ATSG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics
22.48
-0.01 (-0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)03-03 2025-03-03/amc
Earnings (Next)05-01 2025-05-01/amc
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change-99.99%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.48B
Revenue(TTM)1.96B
Net Income(TTM)27.43M
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 | ||
| P/S | 0.75 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.78 | ||
| P/B | 1 | ||
| P/tB | 1.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROCE | 3.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.07% | ||
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% | ||
| FCFM | 10.29% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.81 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.64% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.87% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 735.62% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%
AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP / ATSG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to ATSG.
What is the valuation status of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?
AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the valuation of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) is 25.55 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.
How financially healthy is AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP?
The financial health rating of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) is 1 / 10.