AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:ATSG • US00922R1059

Current stock price

22.48 USD
-0.01 (-0.04%)
At close:
22.481 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This ATSG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

4

1. ATSG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ATSG was profitable.
  • In the past year ATSG had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • Each year in the past 5 years ATSG has been profitable.
  • In the past 5 years ATSG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
ATSG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFATSG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.70%, ATSG is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.17% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ATSG's Return On Equity of 1.85% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 2.61%, ATSG is in line with its industry, outperforming 47.83% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ATSG is significantly below the industry average of 11.93%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.85%
ROIC 2.61%
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ATSG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICATSG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • ATSG has a Profit Margin of 1.40%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ATSG has declined.
  • ATSG has a better Operating Margin (6.94%) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ATSG has declined.
  • The Gross Margin of ATSG (52.60%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
  • ATSG's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.94%
PM (TTM) 1.4%
GM 52.6%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
ATSG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsATSG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20 40 60

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1

2. ATSG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • ATSG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ATSG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ATSG has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for ATSG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
ATSG Yearly Shares OutstandingATSG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M
ATSG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsATSG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

  • ATSG has an Altman-Z score of 1.21. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • ATSG's Altman-Z score of 1.21 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 60.87% of its industry peers.
  • ATSG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.67. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as ATSG would need 7.67 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • ATSG's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.67 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
  • ATSG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • ATSG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.04. This is in the lower half of the industry: ATSG underperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.04
Debt/FCF 7.67
Altman-Z 1.21
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
ATSG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFATSG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.98 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a Current ratio value of 0.98, ATSG is not doing good in the industry: 69.57% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.84 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • ATSG's Quick ratio of 0.84 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 73.91% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.84
ATSG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesATSG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. ATSG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ATSG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -38.46%.
  • The earnings per share for ATSG have been decreasing by -10.24% on average. This is quite bad
  • Looking at the last year, ATSG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.25% in the last year.
  • ATSG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.20% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, ATSG will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 32.30% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.55% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
ATSG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesATSG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
ATSG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesATSG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5 2

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5

4. ATSG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 25.55, ATSG can be considered very expensive at the moment.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as ATSG.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ATSG to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.78), we can say ATSG is valued inline with the index average.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11, the valuation of ATSG can be described as rather expensive.
  • 65.22% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.54. ATSG is around the same levels.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.55
Fwd PE 21.11
ATSG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsATSG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • 91.30% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
  • 95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ATSG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.34
EV/EBITDA 5.38
ATSG Per share dataATSG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15 20 25

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. ATSG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for ATSG!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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Find the best dividend stocksShow peers with best dividend

ATSG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP

NASDAQ:ATSG (4/10/2025, 8:00:01 PM)

After market: 22.481 0 (0%)

22.48

-0.01 (-0.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)03-03
Earnings (Next)05-01
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.48B
Revenue(TTM)1.96B
Net Income(TTM)27.43M
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.55
Fwd PE 21.11
P/S 0.75
P/FCF 7.34
P/OCF 2.78
P/B 1
P/tB 1.46
EV/EBITDA 5.38
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.85%
ROCE 3.85%
ROIC 2.61%
ROICexc 2.66%
ROICexgc 3.07%
OM 6.94%
PM (TTM) 1.4%
GM 52.6%
FCFM 10.29%
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.04
Debt/FCF 7.67
Debt/EBITDA 2.81
Cap/Depr 79.64%
Cap/Sales 16.87%
Interest Coverage 1.65
Cash Conversion 96.58%
Profit Quality 735.62%
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.84
Altman-Z 1.21
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP / ATSG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to ATSG.


What is the valuation status of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP?

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) is expected to grow by 21.01% in the next year.