AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG)
US00922R1059 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to ATSG. ATSG was compared to 20 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. There are concerns on the financial health of ATSG while its profitability can be described as average. ATSG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ATSG was profitable.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years ATSG has always been profitable.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ATSG has a Return On Assets of -0.06%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 47.37% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a Return On Equity (-0.16%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of ATSG (2.56%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ATSG is significantly below the industry average of 10.93%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.06% | ||
| ROE | -0.16% | ||
| ROIC | 2.56% |
ROA(3y)4.72%
ROA(5y)3.48%
ROE(3y)11.99%
ROE(5y)10.6%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)5.24%
1.3 Margins
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ATSG has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 6.25%, ATSG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ATSG has declined.
ATSG has a better Gross Margin (51.95%) than 84.21% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ATSG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.25% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 51.95% |
OM growth 3Y-8.55%
OM growth 5Y-4.95%
PM growth 3Y12.54%
PM growth 5Y-17.81%
GM growth 3Y-2.5%
GM growth 5Y-3.01%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ATSG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
ATSG has an Altman-Z score of 1.16. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
ATSG's Altman-Z score of 1.16 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 68.42% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ATSG is 16.63, which is on the high side as it means it would take ATSG, 16.63 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
ATSG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 16.63. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 52.63% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.06. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
ATSG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.06. This is in the lower half of the industry: ATSG underperforms 63.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.63 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.16 |
ROIC/WACC0.36
WACC7.08%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.81 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.81, ATSG is doing worse than 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.68 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.68, ATSG is doing worse than 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.81 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.68 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ATSG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -62.92%.
Measured over the past 5 years, ATSG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 1.92% on average per year.
ATSG shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -5.96%.
Measured over the past years, ATSG shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 18.34% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-62.92%
EPS 3Y-5.97%
EPS 5Y1.92%
EPS Q2Q%-59.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.96%
Revenue growth 3Y9.65%
Revenue growth 5Y18.34%
Sales Q2Q%-9.92%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 2.39% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.02% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-43.79%
EPS Next 2Y-13.29%
EPS Next 3Y2.39%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-4.34%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.02%
Revenue Next 3Y1.87%
Revenue Next 5Y4.02%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
ATSG is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 33.33.
ATSG's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.41, ATSG is valued a bit more expensive.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 20.46, the valuation of ATSG can be described as rather expensive.
ATSG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ATSG is cheaper than 63.16% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.69, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.46 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ATSG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.47% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ATSG is valued cheaper than 89.47% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.4 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)17.32
EPS Next 2Y-13.29%
EPS Next 3Y2.39%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ATSG!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP
NASDAQ:ATSG (1/3/2025, 8:21:00 PM)
After market: 22 0 (0%)22
+0.03 (+0.14%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.4%
Inst Owner Change0.31%
Ins Owners2.82%
Ins Owner Change6.34%
Market Cap1.45B
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (4.32%)
Short Float %4.35%
Short Ratio1.49
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-4.74%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)16.42%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.53%
Min EPS beat(4)-37.33%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-1.42%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)3.32%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)4.75%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-7.87%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)-6.78%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-5.79%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)-3.09%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.16%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.88%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.66%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)16.88%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)31.25%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.06%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.63%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.07%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.46 | ||
| P/S | 0.74 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.4 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.74 | ||
| P/B | 0.99 | ||
| P/tB | 1.45 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
EPS(TTM)0.66
EY3%
EPS(NY)1.08
Fwd EY4.89%
FCF(TTM)1.43
FCFY6.49%
OCF(TTM)8.01
OCFY36.43%
SpS29.84
BVpS22.33
TBVpS15.13
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)17.32
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.06% | ||
| ROE | -0.16% | ||
| ROCE | 3.5% | ||
| ROIC | 2.56% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.6% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.01% | ||
| OM | 6.25% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 51.95% | ||
| FCFM | 4.79% |
ROA(3y)4.72%
ROA(5y)3.48%
ROE(3y)11.99%
ROE(5y)10.6%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)5.24%
ROICexc(3y)5.33%
ROICexc(5y)5.32%
ROICexgc(3y)6.32%
ROICexgc(5y)6.45%
ROCE(3y)7.18%
ROCE(5y)7.16%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-9.81%
ROICexcg growth 5Y0.13%
ROICexc growth 3Y-7.86%
ROICexc growth 5Y2.76%
OM growth 3Y-8.55%
OM growth 5Y-4.95%
PM growth 3Y12.54%
PM growth 5Y-17.81%
GM growth 3Y-2.5%
GM growth 5Y-3.01%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.51
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.63 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.01 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 109.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 22.07% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.49 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 101.43% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.81 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.68 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.16 |
F-Score3
WACC7.08%
ROIC/WACC0.36
Cap/Depr(3y)178.12%
Cap/Depr(5y)171.55%
Cap/Sales(3y)32.24%
Cap/Sales(5y)32.09%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-62.92%
EPS 3Y-5.97%
EPS 5Y1.92%
EPS Q2Q%-59.37%
EPS Next Y-43.79%
EPS Next 2Y-13.29%
EPS Next 3Y2.39%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.96%
Revenue growth 3Y9.65%
Revenue growth 5Y18.34%
Sales Q2Q%-9.92%
Revenue Next Year-4.34%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.02%
Revenue Next 3Y1.87%
Revenue Next 5Y4.02%
EBIT growth 1Y-47.97%
EBIT growth 3Y0.27%
EBIT growth 5Y12.48%
EBIT Next Year141.6%
EBIT Next 3Y40.59%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y242.79%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-4.58%
OCF growth 3Y8.48%
OCF growth 5Y17.03%