AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NASDAQ:ATSG • US00922R1059

Current stock price

22.48 USD
-0.01 (-0.04%)
At close:
22.481 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This ATSG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

4

1. ATSG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ATSG was profitable.
  • ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • ATSG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • Each year in the past 5 years ATSG had a positive operating cash flow.
ATSG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFATSG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200M 400M 600M

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of ATSG (0.70%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • ATSG has a Return On Equity of 1.85%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
  • ATSG has a Return On Invested Capital (2.61%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ATSG is significantly below the industry average of 11.93%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.85%
ROIC 2.61%
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ATSG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICATSG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

  • With a Profit Margin value of 1.40%, ATSG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ATSG has declined.
  • ATSG's Operating Margin of 6.94% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ATSG has declined.
  • ATSG has a better Gross Margin (52.60%) than 86.96% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ATSG has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.94%
PM (TTM) 1.4%
GM 52.6%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
ATSG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsATSG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20 40 60

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1

2. ATSG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • ATSG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ATSG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ATSG has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
ATSG Yearly Shares OutstandingATSG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M
ATSG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsATSG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.21, we must say that ATSG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.21, ATSG is doing worse than 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ATSG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.67. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as ATSG would need 7.67 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 7.67, ATSG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ATSG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • ATSG's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.04 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 60.87% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.04
Debt/FCF 7.67
Altman-Z 1.21
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
ATSG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFATSG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

  • ATSG has a Current Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ATSG has a worse Current ratio (0.98) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.84 indicates that ATSG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.84, ATSG is doing worse than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.84
ATSG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesATSG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. ATSG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ATSG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -38.46%.
  • ATSG shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -10.24% yearly.
  • Looking at the last year, ATSG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.25% in the last year.
  • ATSG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.20% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%

3.2 Future

  • ATSG is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 32.30% yearly.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.55% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
ATSG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesATSG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
ATSG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesATSG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5 2

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5

4. ATSG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 25.55, which means the current valuation is very expensive for ATSG.
  • ATSG's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.73, ATSG is valued at the same level.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11, ATSG is valued on the expensive side.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ATSG indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ATSG is cheaper than 65.22% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.72, ATSG is valued at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.55
Fwd PE 21.11
ATSG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsATSG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ATSG indicates a rather cheap valuation: ATSG is cheaper than 91.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ATSG is valued cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.34
EV/EBITDA 5.38
ATSG Per share dataATSG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15 20 25

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

0

5. ATSG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • No dividends for ATSG!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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ATSG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP

NASDAQ:ATSG (4/10/2025, 8:00:01 PM)

After market: 22.481 0 (0%)

22.48

-0.01 (-0.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)03-03
Earnings (Next)05-01
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change-99.99%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.48B
Revenue(TTM)1.96B
Net Income(TTM)27.43M
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.55
Fwd PE 21.11
P/S 0.75
P/FCF 7.34
P/OCF 2.78
P/B 1
P/tB 1.46
EV/EBITDA 5.38
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.7%
ROE 1.85%
ROCE 3.85%
ROIC 2.61%
ROICexc 2.66%
ROICexgc 3.07%
OM 6.94%
PM (TTM) 1.4%
GM 52.6%
FCFM 10.29%
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.04
Debt/FCF 7.67
Debt/EBITDA 2.81
Cap/Depr 79.64%
Cap/Sales 16.87%
Interest Coverage 1.65
Cash Conversion 96.58%
Profit Quality 735.62%
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.84
Altman-Z 1.21
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP / ATSG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to ATSG.


What is the valuation status of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) stock?

AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.


What is the valuation of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) is 25.55 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.


How financially healthy is AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP?

The financial health rating of AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) is 1 / 10.