AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP (ATSG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:ATSG - Nasdaq - US00922R1059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, ATSG scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ATSG was compared to 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. There are concerns on the financial health of ATSG while its profitability can be described as average. ATSG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ATSG was profitable.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years ATSG has always been profitable.
ATSG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.70%, ATSG is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.17% of the companies in the same industry.
ATSG has a Return On Equity of 1.85%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ATSG outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
ATSG's Return On Invested Capital of 2.61% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 47.83% of its industry peers.
ATSG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.14%. This is significantly below the industry average of 12.73%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
1.3 Margins
ATSG's Profit Margin of 1.40% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
ATSG's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ATSG has a better Operating Margin (6.94%) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
ATSG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 52.60%, ATSG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ATSG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% |
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ATSG is destroying value.
ATSG has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ATSG has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, ATSG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.21, we must say that ATSG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of ATSG (1.21) is worse than 60.87% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ATSG is 7.67, which is on the high side as it means it would take ATSG, 7.67 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
ATSG's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.67 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.04 is on the high side and indicates that ATSG has dependencies on debt financing.
ATSG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.04. This is in the lower half of the industry: ATSG underperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
ROIC/WACC0.43
WACC6.02%
2.3 Liquidity
ATSG has a Current Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ATSG's Current ratio of 0.98 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 69.57% of its industry peers.
ATSG has a Quick Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that ATSG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ATSG's Quick ratio of 0.84 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ATSG is outperformed by 73.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ATSG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -38.46%.
The earnings per share for ATSG have been decreasing by -10.24% on average. This is quite bad
ATSG shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -5.25%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.20% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 32.30% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
ATSG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.55% yearly.
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 25.55, which means the current valuation is very expensive for ATSG.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as ATSG.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.30, ATSG is valued at the same level.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.11 indicates a rather expensive valuation of ATSG.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ATSG is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.22% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.76, ATSG is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ATSG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 91.30% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ATSG indicates a rather cheap valuation: ATSG is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ATSG's earnings are expected to grow with 32.30% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ATSG does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
22.48
-0.01 (-0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners78.62%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change-123.19%
Market Cap1.48B
Analysts78.18
Price Target22.95 (2.09%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)7.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(2)40.06%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)19.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-25.9%
Max EPS beat(4)48.93%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)4.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.13%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)6.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.82%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.96%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.82%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.81%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.23%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.71%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.55 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21.11 | ||
| P/S | 0.75 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.34 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.78 | ||
| P/B | 1 | ||
| P/tB | 1.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 |
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)1.06
Fwd EY4.74%
FCF(TTM)3.06
FCFY13.62%
OCF(TTM)8.09
OCFY35.97%
SpS29.78
BVpS22.52
TBVpS15.43
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.7% | ||
| ROE | 1.85% | ||
| ROCE | 3.85% | ||
| ROIC | 2.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.07% | ||
| OM | 6.94% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.4% | ||
| GM | 52.6% | ||
| FCFM | 10.29% |
ROA(3y)2.6%
ROA(5y)3.19%
ROE(3y)6.77%
ROE(5y)8.31%
ROIC(3y)4.14%
ROIC(5y)4.44%
ROICexc(3y)4.19%
ROICexc(5y)4.51%
ROICexgc(3y)4.9%
ROICexgc(5y)5.39%
ROCE(3y)6.1%
ROCE(5y)6.54%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-19.89%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-12.7%
ROICexc growth 3Y-18.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y-11.09%
OM growth 3Y-16.89%
OM growth 5Y-10.66%
PM growth 3Y-52.85%
PM growth 5Y-19.8%
GM growth 3Y-1.52%
GM growth 5Y-2.17%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.04 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.81 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.64% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.87% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.65 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 735.62% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.98 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
F-Score6
WACC6.02%
ROIC/WACC0.43
Cap/Depr(3y)155.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)155.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)28.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)29.22%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.46%
EPS 3Y-19.07%
EPS 5Y-10.24%
EPS Q2Q%122.22%
EPS Next Y21.01%
EPS Next 2Y32.3%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.25%
Revenue growth 3Y4.2%
Revenue growth 5Y6.2%
Sales Q2Q%-0.05%
Revenue Next Year4.58%
Revenue Next 2Y4.51%
Revenue Next 3Y7.99%
Revenue Next 5Y5.55%
EBIT growth 1Y-31.9%
EBIT growth 3Y-13.4%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.12%
EBIT Next Year313.28%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y244.81%
FCF growth 3Y36.81%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-18.54%
OCF growth 3Y-2.99%
OCF growth 5Y6.07%