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XPO INC (XPO) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:XPO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US9837931008 - Common Stock

137.595  -0.72 (-0.52%)

Fundamental Rating

4

Overall XPO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated XPO against 38 industry peers in the Ground Transportation industry. XPO has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. XPO is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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7

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year XPO was profitable.
XPO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years XPO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years XPO had a positive operating cash flow.
XPO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFXPO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 500M -500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

XPO has a Return On Assets (4.67%) which is in line with its industry peers.
XPO has a better Return On Equity (22.55%) than 81.58% of its industry peers.
XPO has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.08%. This is in the better half of the industry: XPO outperforms 68.42% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for XPO is in line with the industry average of 7.67%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.08%) for XPO is above the 3 year average (5.87%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.67%
ROE 22.55%
ROIC 8.08%
ROA(3y)5.67%
ROA(5y)4.03%
ROE(3y)36.75%
ROE(5y)25.4%
ROIC(3y)5.87%
ROIC(5y)4.33%
XPO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICXPO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 40 60

1.3 Margins

With a Profit Margin value of 4.57%, XPO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.26% of the companies in the same industry.
XPO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 8.75%, XPO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.16% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of XPO has grown nicely.
XPO has a Gross Margin of 58.71%. This is in the better half of the industry: XPO outperforms 65.79% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of XPO has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 8.75%
PM (TTM) 4.57%
GM 58.71%
OM growth 3Y65.16%
OM growth 5Y10.82%
PM growth 3Y23.98%
PM growth 5Y1.58%
GM growth 3Y14.91%
GM growth 5Y3.32%
XPO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsXPO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10 20 30 40 50

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

XPO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, XPO has more shares outstanding
XPO has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for XPO is higher compared to a year ago.
XPO Yearly Shares OutstandingXPO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
XPO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsXPO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5B 10B 15B

2.2 Solvency

XPO has an Altman-Z score of 2.96. This is not the best score and indicates that XPO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of XPO (2.96) is better than 65.79% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.04 is on the high side and indicates that XPO has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 2.04, XPO is not doing good in the industry: 81.58% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.04
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 2.96
ROIC/WACC0.95
WACC8.51%
XPO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFXPO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

XPO has a Current Ratio of 1.06. This is a normal value and indicates that XPO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
XPO has a Current ratio (1.06) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
XPO has a Quick Ratio of 1.06. This is a normal value and indicates that XPO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
XPO has a Quick ratio of 1.06. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: XPO outperforms 44.74% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.06
Quick Ratio 1.06
XPO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesXPO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

XPO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 18.85%, which is quite good.
XPO shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -1.81% yearly.
Looking at the last year, XPO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.96% in the last year.
XPO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -14.83% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)18.85%
EPS 3Y16.01%
EPS 5Y-1.81%
EPS Q2Q%15.91%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.96%
Revenue growth 3Y7.88%
Revenue growth 5Y-14.83%
Sales Q2Q%3.69%

3.2 Future

XPO is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 22.18% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.98% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y25.27%
EPS Next 2Y23.42%
EPS Next 3Y24.58%
EPS Next 5Y22.18%
Revenue Next Year4.71%
Revenue Next 2Y4.36%
Revenue Next 3Y4.9%
Revenue Next 5Y5.98%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
XPO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesXPO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 5B 10B 15B
XPO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesXPO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 2 4 6

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings ratio is 36.99, which means the current valuation is very expensive for XPO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, XPO is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 60.53% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of XPO to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.29), we can say XPO is valued slightly more expensively.
XPO is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 30.93.
XPO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of XPO to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.44), we can say XPO is valued slightly more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 36.99
Fwd PE 30.93
XPO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsXPO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as XPO.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 16.12
XPO Per share dataXPO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 20 40 60

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of XPO may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as XPO's earnings are expected to grow with 24.58% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.46
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y23.42%
EPS Next 3Y24.58%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for XPO!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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XPO INC

NYSE:XPO (1/22/2025, 12:43:23 PM)

137.595

-0.72 (-0.52%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryGround Transportation
Earnings (Last)10-30 2024-10-30/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-06 2025-02-06/amc
Inst Owners98.07%
Inst Owner Change-0.38%
Ins Owners0.83%
Ins Owner Change1.89%
Market Cap16.02B
Analysts81.43
Price Target156.54 (13.77%)
Short Float %5.7%
Short Ratio4.09
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)-26.99%
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)10.36%
Min EPS beat(2)9.48%
Max EPS beat(2)11.23%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)15.92%
Min EPS beat(4)9.48%
Max EPS beat(4)23.27%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)18.85%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)20.25%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)23.6%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.02%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.67%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.64%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.11%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.67%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.64%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.18%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-23.77%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-35.87%
PT rev (1m)4.01%
PT rev (3m)16.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-19.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.08%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.89%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.63%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 36.99
Fwd PE 30.93
P/S 1.98
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 18.43
P/B 9.76
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 16.12
EPS(TTM)3.72
EY2.7%
EPS(NY)4.45
Fwd EY3.23%
FCF(TTM)-6.81
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)7.47
OCFY5.43%
SpS69.5
BVpS14.1
TBVpS-2.2
PEG (NY)1.46
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.67%
ROE 22.55%
ROCE 11.13%
ROIC 8.08%
ROICexc 8.59%
ROICexgc 12.58%
OM 8.75%
PM (TTM) 4.57%
GM 58.71%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)5.67%
ROA(5y)4.03%
ROE(3y)36.75%
ROE(5y)25.4%
ROIC(3y)5.87%
ROIC(5y)4.33%
ROICexc(3y)6.34%
ROICexc(5y)4.66%
ROICexgc(3y)10.4%
ROICexgc(5y)7.96%
ROCE(3y)8.08%
ROCE(5y)5.96%
ROICexcg growth 3Y112.71%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-10.51%
ROICexc growth 3Y112.28%
ROICexc growth 5Y2.9%
OM growth 3Y65.16%
OM growth 5Y10.82%
PM growth 3Y23.98%
PM growth 5Y1.58%
GM growth 3Y14.91%
GM growth 5Y3.32%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.02
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.04
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 2.82
Cap/Depr 346.97%
Cap/Sales 20.54%
Interest Coverage 3.16
Cash Conversion 73.21%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.06
Quick Ratio 1.06
Altman-Z 2.96
F-Score5
WACC8.51%
ROIC/WACC0.95
Cap/Depr(3y)185.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)140.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)10.09%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.57%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)18.85%
EPS 3Y16.01%
EPS 5Y-1.81%
EPS Q2Q%15.91%
EPS Next Y25.27%
EPS Next 2Y23.42%
EPS Next 3Y24.58%
EPS Next 5Y22.18%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.96%
Revenue growth 3Y7.88%
Revenue growth 5Y-14.83%
Sales Q2Q%3.69%
Revenue Next Year4.71%
Revenue Next 2Y4.36%
Revenue Next 3Y4.9%
Revenue Next 5Y5.98%
EBIT growth 1Y45.98%
EBIT growth 3Y78.17%
EBIT growth 5Y-5.62%
EBIT Next Year114.99%
EBIT Next 3Y40.23%
EBIT Next 5Y27.66%
FCF growth 1Y-331.19%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y15.25%
OCF growth 3Y-8.32%
OCF growth 5Y-9.15%