XPO INC (XPO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:XPO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US9837931008 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to XPO. XPO was compared to 41 industry peers in the Ground Transportation industry. While XPO belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. XPO is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
XPO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year XPO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years XPO has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years XPO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 5.02%, XPO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of XPO (24.17%) is better than 85.37% of its industry peers.
XPO's Return On Invested Capital of 8.66% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. XPO outperforms 68.29% of its industry peers.
XPO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.94%. This is in line with the industry average of 7.87%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.66%) for XPO is above the 3 year average (7.94%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.02% | ||
| ROE | 24.17% | ||
| ROIC | 8.66% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.5%
ROE(3y)34.97%
ROE(5y)27.47%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)5.64%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 4.79%, XPO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.41% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of XPO has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of XPO (8.67%) is better than 68.29% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of XPO has grown nicely.
XPO's Gross Margin of 59.22% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. XPO outperforms 68.29% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of XPO has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 8.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.79% | ||
| GM | 59.22% |
OM growth 3Y28.41%
OM growth 5Y12.76%
PM growth 3Y0.91%
PM growth 5Y6.2%
GM growth 3Y17.98%
GM growth 5Y13.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so XPO is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for XPO has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, XPO has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, XPO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
XPO has an Altman-Z score of 2.58. This is not the best score and indicates that XPO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 2.58, XPO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.41% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of XPO is 178.26, which is on the high side as it means it would take XPO, 178.26 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 178.26, XPO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
XPO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.08. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
XPO's Debt to Equity ratio of 2.08 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. XPO is outperformed by 78.05% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 178.26 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.58 |
ROIC/WACC0.95
WACC9.16%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.06 indicates that XPO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
XPO has a Current ratio of 1.06. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: XPO outperforms 51.22% of its industry peers.
XPO has a Quick Ratio of 1.06. This is a normal value and indicates that XPO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.06, XPO is in line with its industry, outperforming 51.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.06 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.06 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 31.51% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, XPO shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -1.25% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.24% in the past year.
XPO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -5.45% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)31.51%
EPS 3Y-11.82%
EPS 5Y-1.25%
EPS Q2Q%15.58%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.24%
Revenue growth 3Y3.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.45%
Sales Q2Q%-0.98%
3.2 Future
XPO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 14.43% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.15% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-0.29%
EPS Next 2Y14.36%
EPS Next 3Y15.89%
EPS Next 5Y14.43%
Revenue Next Year1.9%
Revenue Next 2Y3.71%
Revenue Next 3Y4.13%
Revenue Next 5Y5.15%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 26.03, the valuation of XPO can be described as expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as XPO.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.64, XPO is valued at the same level.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 26.11, XPO can be considered very expensive at the moment.
XPO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.44. XPO is valued slightly more expensive when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 26.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as XPO.
60.98% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than XPO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 619.6 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.18 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of XPO may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as XPO's earnings are expected to grow with 15.89% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y14.36%
EPS Next 3Y15.89%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
XPO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
99.96
+3.54 (+3.67%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryGround Transportation
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners101.37%
Inst Owner Change-0.66%
Ins Owners1.76%
Ins Owner Change2.77%
Market Cap11.77B
Analysts82.67
Price Target151.65 (51.71%)
Short Float %5.24%
Short Ratio3.75
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)25.06%
Min EPS beat(2)11.23%
Max EPS beat(2)38.89%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)19.83%
Min EPS beat(4)9.48%
Max EPS beat(4)38.89%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)21.87%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)20.66%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)21.3%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.03%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.64%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.03%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.64%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.12%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-9.86%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-21.78%
PT rev (1m)-5.01%
PT rev (3m)-3.13%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-5.22%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-23.94%
EPS NY rev (1m)-8.88%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.92%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.4%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.87%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.09%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 26.11 | ||
| P/S | 1.46 | ||
| P/FCF | 619.6 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.57 | ||
| P/B | 7.35 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.18 |
EPS(TTM)3.84
EY3.84%
EPS(NY)3.83
Fwd EY3.83%
FCF(TTM)0.16
FCFY0.16%
OCF(TTM)6.86
OCFY6.86%
SpS68.54
BVpS13.59
TBVpS-1.88
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.02% | ||
| ROE | 24.17% | ||
| ROCE | 11.13% | ||
| ROIC | 8.66% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.01% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.9% | ||
| OM | 8.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.79% | ||
| GM | 59.22% | ||
| FCFM | 0.24% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.5%
ROE(3y)34.97%
ROE(5y)27.47%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)5.64%
ROICexc(3y)8.52%
ROICexc(5y)6.05%
ROICexgc(3y)13.48%
ROICexgc(5y)9.52%
ROCE(3y)10.2%
ROCE(5y)7.25%
ROICexcg growth 3Y29.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.06%
ROICexc growth 3Y32.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y19.05%
OM growth 3Y28.41%
OM growth 5Y12.76%
PM growth 3Y0.91%
PM growth 5Y6.2%
GM growth 3Y17.98%
GM growth 5Y13.75%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover1.05
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 178.26 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.79 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 161.02% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.77% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.14 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 67.9% | ||
| Profit Quality | 4.91% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.06 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.06 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.58 |
F-Score8
WACC9.16%
ROIC/WACC0.95
Cap/Depr(3y)216.26%
Cap/Depr(5y)156.91%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.11%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.82%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)31.51%
EPS 3Y-11.82%
EPS 5Y-1.25%
EPS Q2Q%15.58%
EPS Next Y-0.29%
EPS Next 2Y14.36%
EPS Next 3Y15.89%
EPS Next 5Y14.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.24%
Revenue growth 3Y3.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.45%
Sales Q2Q%-0.98%
Revenue Next Year1.9%
Revenue Next 2Y3.71%
Revenue Next 3Y4.13%
Revenue Next 5Y5.15%
EBIT growth 1Y28.91%
EBIT growth 3Y33.38%
EBIT growth 5Y6.62%
EBIT Next Year81.63%
EBIT Next 3Y33.1%
EBIT Next 5Y19.56%
FCF growth 1Y102.23%
FCF growth 3Y-65.23%
FCF growth 5Y-45.95%
OCF growth 1Y18.48%
OCF growth 3Y3.87%
OCF growth 5Y0.43%