XPO INC (XPO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:XPO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US9837931008 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
XPO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 39 industry peers in the Ground Transportation industry. XPO has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. While showing a medium growth rate, XPO is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
XPO had positive earnings in the past year.
XPO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years XPO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years XPO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
XPO's Return On Assets of 5.02% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. XPO outperforms 57.89% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 24.17%, XPO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 8.66%, XPO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for XPO is in line with the industry average of 7.67%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.66%) for XPO is above the 3 year average (7.94%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.02% | ||
| ROE | 24.17% | ||
| ROIC | 8.66% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.5%
ROE(3y)34.97%
ROE(5y)27.47%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)5.64%
1.3 Margins
XPO has a Profit Margin of 4.79%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: XPO outperforms 57.89% of its industry peers.
XPO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 8.67%, XPO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.16% of the companies in the same industry.
XPO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
XPO has a Gross Margin of 59.22%. This is in the better half of the industry: XPO outperforms 65.79% of its industry peers.
XPO's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 8.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.79% | ||
| GM | 59.22% |
OM growth 3Y28.41%
OM growth 5Y12.76%
PM growth 3Y0.91%
PM growth 5Y6.2%
GM growth 3Y17.98%
GM growth 5Y13.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so XPO is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, XPO has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for XPO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
XPO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.99 indicates that XPO is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of XPO (2.99) is better than 71.05% of its industry peers.
XPO has a debt to FCF ratio of 178.26. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as XPO would need 178.26 years to pay back of all of its debts.
XPO has a Debt to FCF ratio (178.26) which is in line with its industry peers.
XPO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.08. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
XPO has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (2.08) than 81.58% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 178.26 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.99 |
ROIC/WACC0.93
WACC9.32%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.06 indicates that XPO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
XPO has a Current ratio (1.06) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.06 indicates that XPO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
XPO has a Quick ratio (1.06) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.06 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.06 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 31.51% over the past year.
XPO shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -1.25% yearly.
Looking at the last year, XPO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 4.24% in the last year.
XPO shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -5.45% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)31.51%
EPS 3Y-11.82%
EPS 5Y-1.25%
EPS Q2Q%15.58%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.24%
Revenue growth 3Y3.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.45%
Sales Q2Q%-0.98%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.95% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.32% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y9.93%
EPS Next 2Y19.66%
EPS Next 3Y19.9%
EPS Next 5Y19.95%
Revenue Next Year3.14%
Revenue Next 2Y4.65%
Revenue Next 3Y6.3%
Revenue Next 5Y6.32%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 32.44, XPO can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as XPO.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.63. XPO is around the same levels.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 29.51, which means the current valuation is very expensive for XPO.
XPO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
XPO is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.68, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.51 |
4.2 Price Multiples
XPO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as XPO.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 768.72 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.68 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
XPO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
XPO's earnings are expected to grow with 19.90% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)3.27
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19.66%
EPS Next 3Y19.9%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for XPO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
124.58
-7.83 (-5.91%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryGround Transportation
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners101.37%
Inst Owner Change1.69%
Ins Owners1.76%
Ins Owner Change2.69%
Market Cap14.61B
Analysts80.71
Price Target159.22 (27.81%)
Short Float %5.46%
Short Ratio3.9
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)-26.99%
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)25.06%
Min EPS beat(2)11.23%
Max EPS beat(2)38.89%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)19.83%
Min EPS beat(4)9.48%
Max EPS beat(4)38.89%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)21.87%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)20.66%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)21.3%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.03%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.64%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.03%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.64%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.12%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-9.86%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-21.78%
PT rev (1m)-1.32%
PT rev (3m)14.77%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-18.01%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.47%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.09%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.29%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-2.33%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.19%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.9%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.17%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.51 | ||
| P/S | 1.81 | ||
| P/FCF | 768.72 | ||
| P/OCF | 18.08 | ||
| P/B | 9.12 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.68 |
EPS(TTM)3.84
EY3.08%
EPS(NY)4.22
Fwd EY3.39%
FCF(TTM)0.16
FCFY0.13%
OCF(TTM)6.89
OCFY5.53%
SpS68.85
BVpS13.66
TBVpS-1.89
PEG (NY)3.27
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.02% | ||
| ROE | 24.17% | ||
| ROCE | 11.13% | ||
| ROIC | 8.66% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.01% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.9% | ||
| OM | 8.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.79% | ||
| GM | 59.22% | ||
| FCFM | 0.24% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.5%
ROE(3y)34.97%
ROE(5y)27.47%
ROIC(3y)7.94%
ROIC(5y)5.64%
ROICexc(3y)8.52%
ROICexc(5y)6.05%
ROICexgc(3y)13.48%
ROICexgc(5y)9.52%
ROCE(3y)10.2%
ROCE(5y)7.25%
ROICexcg growth 3Y29.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.06%
ROICexc growth 3Y32.6%
ROICexc growth 5Y19.05%
OM growth 3Y28.41%
OM growth 5Y12.76%
PM growth 3Y0.91%
PM growth 5Y6.2%
GM growth 3Y17.98%
GM growth 5Y13.75%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover1.05
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 178.26 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.79 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 161.02% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.77% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.14 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 67.9% | ||
| Profit Quality | 4.91% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.06 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.06 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.99 |
F-Score8
WACC9.32%
ROIC/WACC0.93
Cap/Depr(3y)216.26%
Cap/Depr(5y)156.91%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.11%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.82%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)31.51%
EPS 3Y-11.82%
EPS 5Y-1.25%
EPS Q2Q%15.58%
EPS Next Y9.93%
EPS Next 2Y19.66%
EPS Next 3Y19.9%
EPS Next 5Y19.95%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.24%
Revenue growth 3Y3.87%
Revenue growth 5Y-5.45%
Sales Q2Q%-0.98%
Revenue Next Year3.14%
Revenue Next 2Y4.65%
Revenue Next 3Y6.3%
Revenue Next 5Y6.32%
EBIT growth 1Y28.91%
EBIT growth 3Y33.38%
EBIT growth 5Y6.62%
EBIT Next Year85.16%
EBIT Next 3Y34.54%
EBIT Next 5Y27.48%
FCF growth 1Y102.23%
FCF growth 3Y-65.23%
FCF growth 5Y-45.95%
OCF growth 1Y18.48%
OCF growth 3Y3.87%
OCF growth 5Y0.43%