VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
179.16 USD
-9.12 (-4.84%)
181.2 USD
+2.04 (+1.14%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. There are concerns on the financial health of VST while its profitability can be described as average. While showing a medium growth rate, VST is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 2.52%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 18.43%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.32%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VST (5.58%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
With a Operating Margin value of 12.24%, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.74, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of VST (1.74) is better than 80.00% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 44.74, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.42, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.74 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC7.88%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.99 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
VST's Current ratio of 0.99 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a Quick Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST has a Quick ratio (0.88) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -55.17%.
VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 30.49% yearly.
VST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 5.69%.
VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 14.59% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.93% yearly.
EPS Next Y-16.9%
EPS Next 2Y12.81%
EPS Next 3Y14.2%
EPS Next 5Y14.59%
Revenue Next Year16.89%
Revenue Next 2Y14.59%
Revenue Next 3Y11.85%
Revenue Next 5Y6.93%
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 72.53, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as VST.
VST is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.35, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 20.11 indicates a rather expensive valuation of VST.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 33.72.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 72.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
VST's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 144.88 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.31 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
VST's earnings are expected to grow with 14.20% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.38
EPS Next 2Y12.81%
EPS Next 3Y14.2%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.49%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.64, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.49, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.49% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
51.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y12.81%
EPS Next 3Y14.2%
179.16
-9.12 (-4.84%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.08%
Inst Owner Change0.36%
Ins Owners0.48%
Ins Owner Change-0.11%
Market Cap60.70B
Revenue(TTM)17.19B
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts81.6
Price Target232.19 (29.6%)
Short Float %2.03%
Short Ratio1.57
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.49% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)5.26%
PT rev (3m)20.85%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-12.65%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-23.16%
EPS NY rev (1m)-10.2%
EPS NY rev (3m)-9.45%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-10%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.61%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.55%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 72.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.11 | ||
| P/S | 3.53 | ||
| P/FCF | 144.88 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.21 | ||
| P/B | 11.65 | ||
| P/tB | 200.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.31 |
EPS(TTM)2.47
EY1.38%
EPS(NY)8.91
Fwd EY4.97%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.69%
OCF(TTM)11.78
OCFY6.57%
SpS50.74
BVpS15.38
TBVpS0.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.38
Graham Number29.23
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROCE | 7.11% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.47% | ||
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 2.44% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 120.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.78% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.02 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 43.65% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.74 |
F-Score5
WACC7.88%
ROIC/WACC0.67
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
EPS Next Y-16.9%
EPS Next 2Y12.81%
EPS Next 3Y14.2%
EPS Next 5Y14.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
Revenue Next Year16.89%
Revenue Next 2Y14.59%
Revenue Next 3Y11.85%
Revenue Next 5Y6.93%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year65.12%
EBIT Next 3Y27.55%
EBIT Next 5Y19.52%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for VST stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
What is the valuation status for VST stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for VST stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for VISTRA CORP (VST) is 72.53 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 11.65.
Can you provide the financial health for VST stock?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.