VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
166.37 USD
+15.77 (+10.47%)
167.33 USD
+0.96 (+0.58%)
Overall VST gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated VST against 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. While VST is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. VST has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
VST has a better Return On Assets (2.52%) than 85.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a Return On Equity of 18.43%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.32%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VST (5.58%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 12.24%, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
VST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.56, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
VST has a better Altman-Z score (1.56) than 70.00% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 44.74 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
VST has a Debt to Equity ratio (3.42) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC7.86%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.99 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.99, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST has a Quick Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST has a Quick ratio (0.88) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -55.17%.
VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 30.49% yearly.
VST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 5.69%.
Measured over the past years, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.84% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 14.93% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.30% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y14.93%
Revenue Next Year14.85%
Revenue Next 2Y14.92%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y7.3%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
VST is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 67.36.
VST's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.19. VST is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.59, VST is valued on the expensive side.
85.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
VST is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.88, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 67.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.59 |
4.2 Price Multiples
VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 134.54 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 14.76% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.21
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.60%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.42, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.90, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
VST pays out 51.67% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
166.37
+15.77 (+10.47%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners92.62%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.47%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap56.37B
Revenue(TTM)17.19B
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts81.6
Price Target236.13 (41.93%)
Short Float %2.11%
Short Ratio1.57
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)0.06%
PT rev (3m)7.05%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)38.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.04%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.3%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.46%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.31%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 67.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.59 | ||
| P/S | 3.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 134.54 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.12 | ||
| P/B | 10.82 | ||
| P/tB | 186.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4 |
EPS(TTM)2.47
EY1.48%
EPS(NY)8.95
Fwd EY5.38%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.74%
OCF(TTM)11.78
OCFY7.08%
SpS50.74
BVpS15.38
TBVpS0.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.21
Graham Number29.23
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROCE | 7.11% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.47% | ||
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 2.44% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 120.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.78% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.02 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 43.65% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
F-Score5
WACC7.86%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y14.93%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
Revenue Next Year14.85%
Revenue Next 2Y14.92%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y7.3%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year63.76%
EBIT Next 3Y29.11%
EBIT Next 5Y20.29%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -19.91% in the next year.