VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
164.26 USD
+5.45 (+3.43%)
164.58 USD
+0.32 (+0.19%)
Taking everything into account, VST scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. There are concerns on the financial health of VST while its profitability can be described as average. VST is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year VST was profitable.
- In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
- The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
- Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- With an excellent Return On Assets value of 2.52%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST's Return On Equity of 18.43% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
- Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.32%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- The Profit Margin of VST (5.58%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- VST has a Operating Margin of 12.24%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VST is destroying value.
- VST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- Compared to 5 years ago, VST has less shares outstanding
- The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.61, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
- The Altman-Z score of VST (1.61) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 44.74, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.42, VST is not doing good in the industry: 60.00% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.61 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC7.89%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 0.99 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- VST has a Current ratio of 0.99. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- VST's Quick ratio of 0.88 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 55.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -55.17%.
- VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 30.49% yearly.
- Looking at the last year, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.69% in the last year.
- VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.74% on average per year.
- VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.72% yearly.
EPS Next Y-24.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year13.69%
Revenue Next 2Y15.33%
Revenue Next 3Y12.61%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
3.3 Evolution
- Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
- The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- With a Price/Earnings ratio of 66.50, VST can be considered very expensive at the moment.
- 65.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.87. VST is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.33 indicates a rather expensive valuation of VST.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 25.96. VST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 66.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.33 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VST.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 132.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.95 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 16.62% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.18
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.57%, which is pretty low.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.36, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- With a Dividend Yield of 0.57, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.82.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.57% |
5.2 History
- On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
- VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
- As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
- 51.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
- The dividend of VST is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -24.3% in the next year.