VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
166.37 USD
+15.77 (+10.47%)
167.33 USD
+0.96 (+0.58%)
Taking everything into account, VST scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. VST is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
VST had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of VST (2.52%) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 18.43%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.32%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VST (5.58%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of VST (12.24%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.66, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
VST's Altman-Z score of 1.66 is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 44.74. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 44.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
VST has a Debt to FCF ratio of 44.74. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 3.42, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC7.86%
2.3 Liquidity
VST has a Current Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST has a Current ratio of 0.99. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 65.00% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of VST (0.88) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -55.17%.
Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 30.49% on average per year.
VST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 5.69%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.84% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 13.74% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.72% yearly.
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year14.85%
Revenue Next 2Y14.92%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 67.36, VST can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.19. VST is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.59, the valuation of VST can be described as rather expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.92.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 67.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.59 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of VST is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 134.54 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.46 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 14.76% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.21
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.60%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.43.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.60, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.92.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 22.79%!
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
51.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
166.37
+15.77 (+10.47%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners92.62%
Inst Owner Change-0.14%
Ins Owners0.47%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap56.37B
Revenue(TTM)17.19B
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts81.6
Price Target236.13 (41.93%)
Short Float %2.11%
Short Ratio1.57
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)0.39%
PT rev (3m)7.05%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)38.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.04%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.3%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.46%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.31%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 67.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.59 | ||
| P/S | 3.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 134.54 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.12 | ||
| P/B | 10.82 | ||
| P/tB | 186.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.46 |
EPS(TTM)2.47
EY1.48%
EPS(NY)8.95
Fwd EY5.38%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.74%
OCF(TTM)11.78
OCFY7.08%
SpS50.74
BVpS15.38
TBVpS0.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.21
Graham Number29.23
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROCE | 7.11% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.47% | ||
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 2.44% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 120.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.78% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.02 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 43.65% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
F-Score5
WACC7.86%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
Revenue Next Year14.85%
Revenue Next 2Y14.92%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year63.76%
EBIT Next 3Y29.11%
EBIT Next 5Y19.88%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -19.91% in the next year.