VISTRA CORP (VST)
US92840M1027 - Common Stock
VST gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. VST has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 4.89%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 34.04%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.45% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of VST (8.63%) is better than 95.45% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.89% | ||
| ROE | 34.04% | ||
| ROIC | 8.63% |
ROA(3y)-1.5%
ROA(5y)0.3%
ROE(3y)-6.13%
ROE(5y)0.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
VST has a better Profit Margin (11.39%) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
VST's Operating Margin of 22.04% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 90.85%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VST has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 22.04% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 90.85% |
OM growth 3Y4.15%
OM growth 5Y27.82%
PM growth 3Y17.81%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.05%
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.62. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
VST's Altman-Z score of 1.62 is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 21.69. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 21.69 years to pay back of all of its debts.
VST has a Debt to FCF ratio of 21.69. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.74 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
VST has a Debt to Equity ratio (2.74) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.69 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.62 |
ROIC/WACC1.09
WACC7.89%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.11 indicates that VST should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of VST (1.11) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.99 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
VST has a Quick ratio (0.99) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.11 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.99 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 62.06%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 33.64% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 4.47% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, VST shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.08% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.06%
EPS 3Y33.64%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%332%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.47%
Revenue growth 3Y8.9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.89%
3.2 Future
VST is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 29.53% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.57% on average per year.
EPS Next Y42.92%
EPS Next 2Y42.96%
EPS Next 3Y33.92%
EPS Next 5Y29.53%
Revenue Next Year7.32%
Revenue Next 2Y11.37%
Revenue Next 3Y9.41%
Revenue Next 5Y7.57%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 25.40, VST can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 63.64% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.73. VST is around the same levels.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.13 indicates a rather expensive valuation of VST.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VST is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.36% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.83), we can say VST is valued inline with the index average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.4 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.13 |
4.2 Price Multiples
77.27% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued cheaper than 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 65.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
VST's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
VST's earnings are expected to grow with 33.92% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.59
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y42.96%
EPS Next 3Y33.92%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.65%, which is pretty low.
VST's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.46.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.65% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 13.13%!
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.13%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
26.35% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of VST is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP26.35%
EPS Next 2Y42.96%
EPS Next 3Y33.92%
VISTRA CORP
NYSE:VST (12/20/2024, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 140.4 +0.45 (+0.32%)139.95
+2.75 (+2%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.35%
Inst Owner Change-2.62%
Ins Owners0.46%
Ins Owner Change-0.24%
Market Cap47.62B
Analysts84.44
Price Target163.12 (16.56%)
Short Float %2.46%
Short Ratio1.34
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.65% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.13%
DP26.35%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)155.52%
Min EPS beat(2)-35.43%
Max EPS beat(2)346.48%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-319.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-1455.87%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)747.83%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)386.38%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)266.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)10.11%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.97%
Max Revenue beat(2)24.2%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.22%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.18%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-8.39%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-7.74%
PT rev (1m)14.72%
PT rev (3m)44.91%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)30.77%
EPS NY rev (1m)9.3%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)23.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.75%
Revenue NY rev (3m)5.66%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.4 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.13 | ||
| P/S | 2.93 | ||
| P/FCF | 65.77 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.64 | ||
| P/B | 8.75 | ||
| P/tB | 98.79 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3 |
EPS(TTM)5.51
EY3.94%
EPS(NY)7.32
Fwd EY5.23%
FCF(TTM)2.13
FCFY1.52%
OCF(TTM)12.02
OCFY8.59%
SpS47.81
BVpS15.99
TBVpS1.42
PEG (NY)0.59
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.89% | ||
| ROE | 34.04% | ||
| ROCE | 11.86% | ||
| ROIC | 8.63% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.89% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.65% | ||
| OM | 22.04% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 90.85% | ||
| FCFM | 4.45% |
ROA(3y)-1.5%
ROA(5y)0.3%
ROE(3y)-6.13%
ROE(5y)0.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.79%
ROICexcg growth 5Y44.77%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y44.04%
OM growth 3Y4.15%
OM growth 5Y27.82%
PM growth 3Y17.81%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.05%
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.69 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.49 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.7% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.68 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 68.31% | ||
| Profit Quality | 39.09% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.11 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.62 |
F-Score7
WACC7.89%
ROIC/WACC1.09
Cap/Depr(3y)115.85%
Cap/Depr(5y)97.76%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.04%
Cap/Sales(5y)15.06%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.06%
EPS 3Y33.64%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%332%
EPS Next Y42.92%
EPS Next 2Y42.96%
EPS Next 3Y33.92%
EPS Next 5Y29.53%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.47%
Revenue growth 3Y8.9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.89%
Revenue Next Year7.32%
Revenue Next 2Y11.37%
Revenue Next 3Y9.41%
Revenue Next 5Y7.57%
EBIT growth 1Y39.13%
EBIT growth 3Y13.42%
EBIT growth 5Y40.71%
EBIT Next Year101.72%
EBIT Next 3Y37.45%
EBIT Next 5Y23.95%
FCF growth 1Y149.12%
FCF growth 3Y19.8%
FCF growth 5Y23.52%
OCF growth 1Y979.42%
OCF growth 3Y17.79%
OCF growth 5Y29.96%