VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
161 USD
+4.19 (+2.67%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. VST is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year VST was profitable.
- VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
- VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.52%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Return On Equity of VST (18.43%) is better than 90.00% of its industry peers.
- Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.32%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.58%, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- VST has a Operating Margin of 12.24%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VST is destroying value.
- VST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- Compared to 5 years ago, VST has less shares outstanding
- Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.60. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
- With a decent Altman-Z score value of 1.60, VST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 44.74, VST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- VST has a Debt to Equity ratio (3.42) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC7.87%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 0.99 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- VST has a better Current ratio (0.99) than 65.00% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- VST has a Quick ratio of 0.88. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -55.17%.
- The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.49% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
- Looking at the last year, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.69% in the last year.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.84% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.74% on average per year.
- The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.72% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year15.16%
Revenue Next 2Y15.68%
Revenue Next 3Y12.8%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
3.3 Evolution
- The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
- The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 65.18, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.94. VST is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
- The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.99, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of VST.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.94.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 65.18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.99 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
- 70.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 130.19 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.82 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- VST's earnings are expected to grow with 14.76% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.14
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- With a yearly dividend of 0.50%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
- The stock price of VST dropped by -22.17% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.64, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.83, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
5.2 History
- On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
- VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
- VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
- VST pays out 51.67% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
- VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
NYSE:VST (1/21/2026, 3:12:08 PM)
161
+4.19 (+2.67%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)11-06 2025-11-06/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-25 2026-02-25/amc
Inst Owners92.62%
Inst Owner Change-0.09%
Ins Owners0.47%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap54.55B
Revenue(TTM)17.19B
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts81.6
Price Target233.96 (45.32%)
Short Float %2.33%
Short Ratio1.57
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)-0.53%
PT rev (3m)6.07%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.21%
EPS NQ rev (3m)30.92%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.04%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.48%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.04%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 65.18 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.99 | ||
| P/S | 3.17 | ||
| P/FCF | 130.19 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.67 | ||
| P/B | 10.47 | ||
| P/tB | 180.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.82 |
EPS(TTM)2.47
EY1.53%
EPS(NY)8.95
Fwd EY5.56%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.77%
OCF(TTM)11.78
OCFY7.32%
SpS50.74
BVpS15.38
TBVpS0.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.14
Graham Number29.23
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROCE | 7.11% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.47% | ||
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 2.44% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 120.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.78% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.02 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 43.65% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
F-Score5
WACC7.87%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
Revenue Next Year15.16%
Revenue Next 2Y15.68%
Revenue Next 3Y12.8%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year63.76%
EBIT Next 3Y29.11%
EBIT Next 5Y19.88%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -19.91% in the next year.