VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
160.12 USD
-0.24 (-0.15%)
160.12 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, VST scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. There are concerns on the financial health of VST while its profitability can be described as average. VST is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year VST was profitable.
- VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
- VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- VST's Return On Assets of 2.52% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a Return On Equity of 18.43%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
- VST's Return On Invested Capital of 5.32% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- VST has a Profit Margin (5.58%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- VST's Operating Margin of 12.24% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
- VST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.62, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
- VST's Altman-Z score of 1.62 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 44.74. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 44.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of VST (44.74) is better than 70.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- VST's Debt to Equity ratio of 3.42 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 45.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.62 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC7.88%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 0.99 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- VST has a Current ratio of 0.99. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 65.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a Quick Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.88, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for VST have decreased strongly by -55.17% in the last year.
- The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.49% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.69% in the past year.
- Measured over the past years, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.84% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.74% on average per year.
- The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.72% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year15.16%
Revenue Next 2Y15.68%
Revenue Next 3Y12.8%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
3.3 Evolution
- The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
- The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- VST is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 64.83.
- 65.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.21), we can say VST is valued expensively.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.89, the valuation of VST can be described as rather expensive.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST indicates a rather cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 85.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.26), we can say VST is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 64.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.89 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 129.48 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- VST's earnings are expected to grow with 14.76% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.13
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- With a yearly dividend of 0.57%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
- The stock price of VST dropped by -20.52% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.37, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.81, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.57% |
5.2 History
- On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
- VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
- VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
- VST pays out 51.67% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
- VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -19.91% in the next year.