VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:VST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US92840M1027 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 21 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. VST has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
VST had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 4.89%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST has a Return On Equity of 34.04%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 95.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Return On Invested Capital of 8.63% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 95.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.89% | ||
| ROE | 34.04% | ||
| ROIC | 8.63% |
ROA(3y)-1.5%
ROA(5y)0.3%
ROE(3y)-6.13%
ROE(5y)0.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 11.39%, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
VST's Operating Margin of 22.04% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 90.85%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VST has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 22.04% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 90.85% |
OM growth 3Y4.15%
OM growth 5Y27.82%
PM growth 3Y17.81%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.05%
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.95. This is not the best score and indicates that VST is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
VST's Altman-Z score of 1.95 is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 21.69. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 21.69 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST (21.69) is better than 80.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.74 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 2.74, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.69 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.95 |
ROIC/WACC1.05
WACC8.21%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.11 indicates that VST should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
VST has a Current ratio (1.11) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
VST has a Quick Ratio of 1.11. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST has a Quick ratio (0.99) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.11 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.99 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 62.06% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 33.64% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.47% in the past year.
VST shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 10.08% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.06%
EPS 3Y33.64%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%332%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.47%
Revenue growth 3Y8.9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.89%
3.2 Future
VST is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 30.99% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.94% on average per year.
EPS Next Y42.92%
EPS Next 2Y42.96%
EPS Next 3Y33.92%
EPS Next 5Y30.99%
Revenue Next Year7.27%
Revenue Next 2Y11.86%
Revenue Next 3Y9.82%
Revenue Next 5Y7.94%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 34.83, VST can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as VST.
VST is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.64, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 26.23, VST can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST indicates a rather cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 85.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 24.51.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 26.23 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 90.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.25 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
VST's earnings are expected to grow with 33.92% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.81
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y42.96%
EPS Next 3Y33.92%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.51%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.37, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.51, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.28.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.51% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 13.13%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.13%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
VST pays out 26.35% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
VST's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP26.35%
EPS Next 2Y42.96%
EPS Next 3Y33.92%
VISTRA CORP
NYSE:VST (1/23/2025, 8:32:02 PM)
Premarket: 195.29 +3.4 (+1.77%)191.89
+5.03 (+2.69%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.35%
Inst Owner Change-0.19%
Ins Owners0.46%
Ins Owner Change-0.24%
Market Cap65.29B
Analysts84.44
Price Target166.65 (-13.15%)
Short Float %2.81%
Short Ratio1.65
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.51% |
Yearly Dividend1.25
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.13%
DP26.35%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)155.52%
Min EPS beat(2)-35.43%
Max EPS beat(2)346.48%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-319.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-1455.87%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)747.83%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)386.38%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)266.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)10.11%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.97%
Max Revenue beat(2)24.2%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.22%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.18%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-8.39%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-7.74%
PT rev (1m)2.16%
PT rev (3m)40.42%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)30.77%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)23.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.05%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.04%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 26.23 | ||
| P/S | 4.01 | ||
| P/FCF | 90.18 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.96 | ||
| P/B | 12 | ||
| P/tB | 135.45 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.25 |
EPS(TTM)5.51
EY2.87%
EPS(NY)7.32
Fwd EY3.81%
FCF(TTM)2.13
FCFY1.11%
OCF(TTM)12.02
OCFY6.27%
SpS47.81
BVpS15.99
TBVpS1.42
PEG (NY)0.81
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.89% | ||
| ROE | 34.04% | ||
| ROCE | 11.86% | ||
| ROIC | 8.63% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.89% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.65% | ||
| OM | 22.04% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 90.85% | ||
| FCFM | 4.45% |
ROA(3y)-1.5%
ROA(5y)0.3%
ROE(3y)-6.13%
ROE(5y)0.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.79%
ROICexcg growth 5Y44.77%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y44.04%
OM growth 3Y4.15%
OM growth 5Y27.82%
PM growth 3Y17.81%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.05%
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.69 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.49 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.7% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.68 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 68.31% | ||
| Profit Quality | 39.09% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.11 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.95 |
F-Score7
WACC8.21%
ROIC/WACC1.05
Cap/Depr(3y)115.85%
Cap/Depr(5y)97.76%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.04%
Cap/Sales(5y)15.06%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.06%
EPS 3Y33.64%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%332%
EPS Next Y42.92%
EPS Next 2Y42.96%
EPS Next 3Y33.92%
EPS Next 5Y30.99%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.47%
Revenue growth 3Y8.9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.89%
Revenue Next Year7.27%
Revenue Next 2Y11.86%
Revenue Next 3Y9.82%
Revenue Next 5Y7.94%
EBIT growth 1Y39.13%
EBIT growth 3Y13.42%
EBIT growth 5Y40.71%
EBIT Next Year104.39%
EBIT Next 3Y38.55%
EBIT Next 5Y25.41%
FCF growth 1Y149.12%
FCF growth 3Y19.8%
FCF growth 5Y23.52%
OCF growth 1Y979.42%
OCF growth 3Y17.79%
OCF growth 5Y29.96%