VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA • New York Stock Exchange • NYSE:VST • US92840M1027

154.26 USD
-4.09 (-2.58%)
At close: Feb 2, 2026
155.3 USD
+1.04 (+0.67%)
After Hours: 2/2/2026, 8:04:00 PM
Fundamental Rating

4

Taking everything into account, VST scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. There are concerns on the financial health of VST while its profitability can be described as average. While showing a medium growth rate, VST is valued expensive at the moment.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year VST was profitable.
  • In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
  • VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
VST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFVST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of VST (2.52%) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a better Return On Equity (18.43%) than 90.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST's Return On Invested Capital of 5.32% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.52%
ROE 18.43%
ROIC 5.32%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
VST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICVST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

  • VST has a Profit Margin of 5.58%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • VST's Operating Margin of 12.24% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.24%
PM (TTM) 5.58%
GM N/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
VST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsVST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300 400

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VST is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
  • The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
VST Yearly Shares OutstandingVST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M
VST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsVST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10B 20B 30B

2.2 Solvency

  • VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.61. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • VST has a Altman-Z score of 1.61. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 44.74, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.42, VST is not doing good in the industry: 60.00% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.42
Debt/FCF 44.74
Altman-Z 1.61
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC7.87%
VST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFVST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.99 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a Current ratio value of 0.99, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • VST's Quick ratio of 0.88 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 50.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.99
Quick Ratio 0.88
VST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesVST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -55.17%.
  • Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 30.49% on average per year.
  • VST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 5.69%.
  • VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%

3.2 Future

  • VST is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 13.74% yearly.
  • VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.72% yearly.
EPS Next Y-24.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year13.69%
Revenue Next 2Y15.33%
Revenue Next 3Y12.61%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
VST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesVST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
VST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesVST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 5 10

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3

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 62.45 indicates a quite expensive valuation of VST.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • VST's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 28.41.
  • VST is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.21.
  • 80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.64), we can say VST is valued slightly cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 62.45
Fwd PE 17.21
VST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsVST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100 150

4.2 Price Multiples

  • The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VST.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 70.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 124.74
EV/EBITDA 13.92
VST Per share dataVST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 16.62% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.05
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%

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4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • With a yearly dividend of 0.56%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.34.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.56, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.83.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.56%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 22.79%!
  • VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
VST Yearly Dividends per shareVST Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

5.3 Sustainability

  • 51.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
  • The dividend of VST is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
VST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendVST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B
VST Dividend Payout.VST Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.VST Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.


Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.


How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?

The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -24.3% in the next year.