VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
158.81 USD
-1.31 (-0.82%)
159 USD
+0.19 (+0.12%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. VST is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year VST was profitable.
- In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
- The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
- Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- VST's Return On Assets of 2.52% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a Return On Equity of 18.43%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
- With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 5.32%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- VST has a Profit Margin (5.58%) which is in line with its industry peers.
- VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- The Operating Margin of VST (12.24%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
- VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.62. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
- VST's Altman-Z score of 1.62 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 44.74 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
- VST has a Debt to Equity ratio (3.42) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.62 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC7.88%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 0.99 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- The Current ratio of VST (0.99) is better than 65.00% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- VST has a Quick ratio (0.88) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -55.17%.
- Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 30.49% on average per year.
- VST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 5.69%.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.84% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.74% on average per year.
- The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.72% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-24.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year13.69%
Revenue Next 2Y15.33%
Revenue Next 3Y12.61%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
3.3 Evolution
- The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
- The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- The Price/Earnings ratio is 64.30, which means the current valuation is very expensive for VST.
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.21, VST is valued quite expensively.
- VST is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.72.
- VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 25.98, VST is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 64.3 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.72 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 70.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 128.42 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.04 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 16.62% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.11
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.57%, which is pretty low.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.36, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.81, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.57% |
5.2 History
- On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
- VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
- As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
- 51.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
- VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -24.3% in the next year.