VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:VST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US92840M1027 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall VST gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated VST against 19 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. While VST has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. VST has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of VST (4.89%) is better than 83.33% of its industry peers.
VST's Return On Equity of 34.04% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 94.44% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of VST (8.63%) is better than 94.44% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.89% | ||
| ROE | 34.04% | ||
| ROIC | 8.63% |
ROA(3y)-1.5%
ROA(5y)0.3%
ROE(3y)-6.13%
ROE(5y)0.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VST (11.39%) is better than 61.11% of its industry peers.
VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
VST has a Operating Margin of 22.04%. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 72.22% of its industry peers.
VST's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 90.85%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.44% of the companies in the same industry.
VST's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 22.04% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 90.85% |
OM growth 3Y4.15%
OM growth 5Y27.82%
PM growth 3Y17.81%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.05%
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VST is still creating some value.
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, VST has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.69. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
VST's Altman-Z score of 1.69 is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 21.69. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 21.69 years to pay back of all of its debts.
VST has a better Debt to FCF ratio (21.69) than 83.33% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.74 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
VST's Debt to Equity ratio of 2.74 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 55.56% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.69 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.69 |
ROIC/WACC1.1
WACC7.85%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.11 indicates that VST should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of VST (1.11) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
VST has a Quick Ratio of 1.11. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST's Quick ratio of 0.99 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 55.56% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.11 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.99 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 62.06%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 33.64% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.47% in the past year.
VST shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 10.08% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.06%
EPS 3Y33.64%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%332%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.47%
Revenue growth 3Y8.9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.89%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 28.25% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.95% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y59.68%
EPS Next 2Y42.12%
EPS Next 3Y34.39%
EPS Next 5Y28.25%
Revenue Next Year7.87%
Revenue Next 2Y11.49%
Revenue Next 3Y10.02%
Revenue Next 5Y6.95%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 27.30 indicates a quite expensive valuation of VST.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 72.22% of the companies in the same industry.
VST's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 29.62.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 20.81, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of VST.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VST is valued cheaply inside the industry as 88.89% of the companies are valued more expensively.
VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 22.70.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27.3 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.81 |
4.2 Price Multiples
VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 77.78% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued cheaply inside the industry as 83.33% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 70.7 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.89 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
VST's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
VST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
VST's earnings are expected to grow with 34.39% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.46
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y42.12%
EPS Next 3Y34.39%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.54%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 4.60.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.27, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.54% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 13.13%!
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.13%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
26.35% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of VST is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP26.35%
EPS Next 2Y42.12%
EPS Next 3Y34.39%
150.44
-12.74 (-7.81%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners86.47%
Inst Owner Change-92.45%
Ins Owners0.43%
Ins Owner Change-0.15%
Market Cap51.18B
Analysts83.16
Price Target186.09 (23.7%)
Short Float %2.42%
Short Ratio1.1
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.54% |
Yearly Dividend1.25
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.13%
DP26.35%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)155.52%
Min EPS beat(2)-35.43%
Max EPS beat(2)346.48%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-319.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-1455.87%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)747.83%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)386.38%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)266.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)10.11%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.97%
Max Revenue beat(2)24.2%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.22%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.18%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.18%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-8.39%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-7.74%
PT rev (1m)11.67%
PT rev (3m)20.02%
EPS NQ rev (1m)33.73%
EPS NQ rev (3m)33.73%
EPS NY rev (1m)11.73%
EPS NY rev (3m)22.11%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)2.5%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.56%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.24%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27.3 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.81 | ||
| P/S | 3.15 | ||
| P/FCF | 70.7 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.51 | ||
| P/B | 9.41 | ||
| P/tB | 106.19 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.89 |
EPS(TTM)5.51
EY3.66%
EPS(NY)7.23
Fwd EY4.81%
FCF(TTM)2.13
FCFY1.41%
OCF(TTM)12.02
OCFY7.99%
SpS47.81
BVpS15.99
TBVpS1.42
PEG (NY)0.46
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.89% | ||
| ROE | 34.04% | ||
| ROCE | 11.86% | ||
| ROIC | 8.63% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.89% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.65% | ||
| OM | 22.04% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 90.85% | ||
| FCFM | 4.45% |
ROA(3y)-1.5%
ROA(5y)0.3%
ROE(3y)-6.13%
ROE(5y)0.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.79%
ROICexcg growth 5Y44.77%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y44.04%
OM growth 3Y4.15%
OM growth 5Y27.82%
PM growth 3Y17.81%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.05%
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.74 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.69 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.49 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 140% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.7% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.68 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 68.31% | ||
| Profit Quality | 39.09% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.11 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.69 |
F-Score7
WACC7.85%
ROIC/WACC1.1
Cap/Depr(3y)115.85%
Cap/Depr(5y)97.76%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.04%
Cap/Sales(5y)15.06%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.06%
EPS 3Y33.64%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%332%
EPS Next Y59.68%
EPS Next 2Y42.12%
EPS Next 3Y34.39%
EPS Next 5Y28.25%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.47%
Revenue growth 3Y8.9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.89%
Revenue Next Year7.87%
Revenue Next 2Y11.49%
Revenue Next 3Y10.02%
Revenue Next 5Y6.95%
EBIT growth 1Y39.13%
EBIT growth 3Y13.42%
EBIT growth 5Y40.71%
EBIT Next Year104.67%
EBIT Next 3Y38.93%
EBIT Next 5Y25.41%
FCF growth 1Y149.12%
FCF growth 3Y19.8%
FCF growth 5Y23.52%
OCF growth 1Y979.42%
OCF growth 3Y17.79%
OCF growth 5Y29.96%