VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:VST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US92840M1027 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
VST gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 21 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. VST has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
VST's Return On Assets of 6.53% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 90.48% of its industry peers.
VST has a Return On Equity of 44.29%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 90.48% of its industry peers.
VST's Return On Invested Capital of 10.56% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.53% | ||
| ROE | 44.29% | ||
| ROIC | 10.56% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
VST's Profit Margin of 14.32% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.71% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
VST has a Operating Margin of 23.69%. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 76.19% of its industry peers.
VST's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 23.69% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 14.32% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is creating some value.
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.52, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of VST (1.52) is better than 80.95% of its industry peers.
VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 14.77. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 14.77 years to pay back of all of its debts.
VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 14.77 is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 90.48% of its industry peers.
VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.06. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
VST has a Debt to Equity ratio (3.06) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.77 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.52 |
ROIC/WACC1.37
WACC7.68%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.96 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
VST has a Current ratio of 0.96. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.85 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of VST (0.85) is better than 61.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.85 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 95.53%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 30.49% on average per year.
VST shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 16.55%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.84% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)95.53%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%270.91%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.55%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%31.16%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.39% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.42% on average per year.
EPS Next Y0.12%
EPS Next 2Y7.96%
EPS Next 3Y8.62%
EPS Next 5Y5.39%
Revenue Next Year21.32%
Revenue Next 2Y13.44%
Revenue Next 3Y9.87%
Revenue Next 5Y6.42%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 16.49, VST is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued cheaply inside the industry as 80.95% of the companies are valued more expensively.
VST's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 28.29.
VST is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.47.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VST is valued cheaply inside the industry as 85.71% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.08, VST is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.47 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, VST is valued cheaper than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
VST's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 90.48% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 31.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.33 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates VST does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
VST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)136.26
PEG (5Y)0.54
EPS Next 2Y7.96%
EPS Next 3Y8.62%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.82%, which is pretty low.
The stock price of VST dropped by -32.45% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 8.05.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.57, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.82% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
VST pays out 19.38% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP19.38%
EPS Next 2Y7.96%
EPS Next 3Y8.62%
115.42
-0.45 (-0.39%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners86.47%
Inst Owner Change-0.01%
Ins Owners0.43%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap39.26B
Analysts84
Price Target177.33 (53.64%)
Short Float %2.06%
Short Ratio0.72
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.82% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP19.38%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)150.24%
Min EPS beat(2)-45.99%
Max EPS beat(2)346.48%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)32.81%
Min EPS beat(4)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)756.53%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)383.14%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)270.34%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)14.83%
Min Revenue beat(2)5.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)24.2%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)8.63%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.97%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)10.91%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-4.16%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-5.76%
PT rev (1m)-3.9%
PT rev (3m)6.41%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-14.78%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.07%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)6.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A
Revenue NY rev (1m)5.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.68%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.47 | ||
| P/S | 2.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 31.18 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.6 | ||
| P/B | 7.05 | ||
| P/tB | 71.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.33 |
EPS(TTM)7
EY6.06%
EPS(NY)7.01
Fwd EY6.07%
FCF(TTM)3.7
FCFY3.21%
OCF(TTM)13.41
OCFY11.62%
SpS50.63
BVpS16.37
TBVpS1.62
PEG (NY)136.26
PEG (5Y)0.54
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.53% | ||
| ROE | 44.29% | ||
| ROCE | 13.91% | ||
| ROIC | 10.56% | ||
| ROICexc | 10.99% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.3% | ||
| OM | 23.69% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 14.32% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 7.31% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.46
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.77 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.54 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 125.58% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 19.18% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.13 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 67.98% | ||
| Profit Quality | 51.03% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.85 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.52 |
F-Score7
WACC7.68%
ROIC/WACC1.37
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)95.53%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%270.91%
EPS Next Y0.12%
EPS Next 2Y7.96%
EPS Next 3Y8.62%
EPS Next 5Y5.39%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.55%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%31.16%
Revenue Next Year21.32%
Revenue Next 2Y13.44%
Revenue Next 3Y9.87%
Revenue Next 5Y6.42%
EBIT growth 1Y50.87%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year65.06%
EBIT Next 3Y24.63%
EBIT Next 5Y19.01%
FCF growth 1Y-53.47%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-16.32%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%