VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
165.64 USD
+1.38 (+0.84%)
165.13 USD
-0.51 (-0.31%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. While VST is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. VST is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- VST had positive earnings in the past year.
- In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
- The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
- VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.52%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 18.43%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.32%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- VST's Profit Margin of 5.58% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
- VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- VST has a Operating Margin (12.24%) which is in line with its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
- The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.65. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
- VST has a Altman-Z score of 1.65. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 44.74. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 44.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of VST (44.74) is better than 70.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- The Debt to Equity ratio of VST (3.42) is worse than 60.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC7.91%
2.3 Liquidity
- VST has a Current Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- With a Current ratio value of 0.99, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- VST has a Quick ratio (0.88) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for VST have decreased strongly by -55.17% in the last year.
- The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.49% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
- VST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 5.69%.
- VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
- VST is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 13.74% yearly.
- Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.72% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-24.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year13.69%
Revenue Next 2Y15.33%
Revenue Next 3Y12.61%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
3.3 Evolution
- The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
- The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 67.06, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
- VST's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.60, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.48, the valuation of VST can be described as rather expensive.
- VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 25.83, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 67.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.48 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of VST is on the same level as its industry peers.
- VST's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 133.95 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.32 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- VST's earnings are expected to grow with 16.62% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.2
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.57%, which is pretty low.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.36, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- With a Dividend Yield of 0.57, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.82.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.57% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 22.79%!
- VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
- As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
- VST pays out 51.67% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
- The dividend of VST is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -24.3% in the next year.