VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
164.81 USD
-1.31 (-0.79%)
165.4 USD
+0.59 (+0.36%)
VST gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. While VST is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. VST is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
VST had positive earnings in the past year.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of VST (2.52%) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a better Return On Equity (18.43%) than 90.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Return On Invested Capital of 5.32% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
VST has a Profit Margin (5.58%) which is in line with its industry peers.
VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
VST has a Operating Margin (12.24%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
VST's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VST is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, VST has less shares outstanding
VST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.65, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.65, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
VST has a Debt to FCF ratio of 44.74. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.42, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC7.85%
2.3 Liquidity
VST has a Current Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.99, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
VST has a Quick ratio (0.88) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for VST have decreased strongly by -55.17% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.49% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
VST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 5.69%.
VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 14.93% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.30% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-19.95%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y14.68%
EPS Next 5Y14.93%
Revenue Next Year15.38%
Revenue Next 2Y14.66%
Revenue Next 3Y12.01%
Revenue Next 5Y7.3%
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 66.72 indicates a quite expensive valuation of VST.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
VST's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.29.
VST is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.39.
VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.51), we can say VST is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 66.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.39 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VST.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 133.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.35 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 14.68% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.19
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y14.68%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.52%, which is pretty low.
In the last 3 months the price of VST has falen by -21.41%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.58.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.52, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.31.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.52% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
VST pays out 51.67% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y14.68%
164.81
-1.31 (-0.79%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners92.39%
Inst Owner Change-0.95%
Ins Owners0.47%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap55.84B
Revenue(TTM)17.19B
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts81.54
Price Target235.21 (42.72%)
Short Float %2.11%
Short Ratio1.55
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.52% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)1.3%
PT rev (3m)10.97%
EPS NQ rev (1m)4.7%
EPS NQ rev (3m)28.57%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.67%
EPS NY rev (3m)-14.58%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)5.13%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.09%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.29%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 66.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.39 | ||
| P/S | 3.25 | ||
| P/FCF | 133.28 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.99 | ||
| P/B | 10.72 | ||
| P/tB | 184.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.35 |
EPS(TTM)2.47
EY1.5%
EPS(NY)8.96
Fwd EY5.44%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.75%
OCF(TTM)11.78
OCFY7.15%
SpS50.74
BVpS15.38
TBVpS0.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.19
Graham Number29.23
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROCE | 7.11% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.47% | ||
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 2.44% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 120.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.78% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.02 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 43.65% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.65 |
F-Score5
WACC7.85%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
EPS Next Y-19.95%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y14.68%
EPS Next 5Y14.93%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
Revenue Next Year15.38%
Revenue Next 2Y14.66%
Revenue Next 3Y12.01%
Revenue Next 5Y7.3%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year64.48%
EBIT Next 3Y29.08%
EBIT Next 5Y20.29%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for VST stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
What is the valuation status for VST stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for VST stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for VISTRA CORP (VST) is 66.72 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 10.72.
Can you provide the financial health for VST stock?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.