VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA • New York Stock Exchange • NYSE:VST • US92840M1027

143.07 USD
+0.55 (+0.39%)
At close: Feb 5, 2026
142.11 USD
-0.96 (-0.67%)
After Hours: 2/5/2026, 4:41:53 PM
Fundamental Rating

4

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. While VST is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. VST is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year VST was profitable.
  • VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
VST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFVST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.52%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Return On Equity of VST (18.43%) is better than 90.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST's Return On Invested Capital of 5.32% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.52%
ROE 18.43%
ROIC 5.32%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
VST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICVST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of VST (5.58%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
  • VST has a Operating Margin of 12.24%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.24%
PM (TTM) 5.58%
GM N/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
VST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsVST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300 400

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VST is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
  • VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • VST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
VST Yearly Shares OutstandingVST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M
VST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsVST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10B 20B 30B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.51, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.51, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 44.74. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 44.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • VST has a Debt to FCF ratio of 44.74. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.42, VST is not doing good in the industry: 60.00% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.42
Debt/FCF 44.74
Altman-Z 1.51
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC7.83%
VST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFVST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • VST has a Current Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • VST's Current ratio of 0.99 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.88, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.99
Quick Ratio 0.88
VST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesVST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for VST have decreased strongly by -55.17% in the last year.
  • VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 30.49% yearly.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.69% in the past year.
  • VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 13.74% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.72% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-24.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year13.69%
Revenue Next 2Y15.33%
Revenue Next 3Y12.61%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
VST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesVST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
VST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesVST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 5 10

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Find the best growth stocksShow best growing peers

4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 57.92, VST can be considered very expensive at the moment.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • VST's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 28.25.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.96, which indicates a correct valuation of VST.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.50), we can say VST is valued slightly cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 57.92
Fwd PE 15.96
VST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsVST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100 150

4.2 Price Multiples

  • 65.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
  • VST's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 115.7
EV/EBITDA 12.86
VST Per share dataVST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • VST's earnings are expected to grow with 16.62% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.9
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.56%, which is pretty low.
  • In the last 3 months the price of VST has falen by -25.09%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.35, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.56, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.56%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
  • VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
VST Yearly Dividends per shareVST Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

5.3 Sustainability

  • 51.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
  • VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
VST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendVST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B
VST Dividend Payout.VST Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.VST Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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VISTRA CORP

NYSE:VST (2/5/2026, 4:41:53 PM)

After market: 142.11 -0.96 (-0.67%)

143.07

+0.55 (+0.39%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)11-06
Earnings (Next)02-26
Inst Owners92.62%
Inst Owner Change-1.91%
Ins Owners0.47%
Ins Owner Change0.15%
Market Cap48.48B
Revenue(TTM)17.19B
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts81.6
Price Target233.96 (63.53%)
Short Float %2.68%
Short Ratio1.79
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.56%
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)-0.92%
PT rev (3m)0.76%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.13%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.4%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.49%
EPS NY rev (3m)-10.54%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.18%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-7.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.33%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 57.92
Fwd PE 15.96
P/S 2.82
P/FCF 115.7
P/OCF 12.15
P/B 9.3
P/tB 159.99
EV/EBITDA 12.86
EPS(TTM)2.47
EY1.73%
EPS(NY)8.96
Fwd EY6.26%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.86%
OCF(TTM)11.78
OCFY8.23%
SpS50.74
BVpS15.38
TBVpS0.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.9
Graham Number29.23
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.52%
ROE 18.43%
ROCE 7.11%
ROIC 5.32%
ROICexc 5.42%
ROICexgc 6.47%
OM 12.24%
PM (TTM) 5.58%
GM N/A
FCFM 2.44%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.42
Debt/FCF 44.74
Debt/EBITDA 3.51
Cap/Depr 120.47%
Cap/Sales 20.78%
Interest Coverage 2.02
Cash Conversion 78.73%
Profit Quality 43.65%
Current Ratio 0.99
Quick Ratio 0.88
Altman-Z 1.51
F-Score5
WACC7.83%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
EPS Next Y-24.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
Revenue Next Year13.69%
Revenue Next 2Y15.33%
Revenue Next 3Y12.61%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year63.6%
EBIT Next 3Y30.55%
EBIT Next 5Y19.88%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%

VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.


Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?

The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -24.3% in the next year.