VISTRA CORP (VST) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:VST • US92840M1027

Current stock price

151.59 USD
+0.41 (+0.27%)
At close:
150.78 USD
-0.81 (-0.53%)
Pre-Market:

This VST fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. VST Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year VST was profitable.
  • VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
VST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFVST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 1.81%, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • VST has a Return On Equity of 14.75%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.38%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.75%. This is significantly above the industry average of 3.44%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.81%
ROE 14.75%
ROIC 5.38%
ROA(3y)4.14%
ROA(5y)0.77%
ROE(3y)28.12%
ROE(5y)8.13%
ROIC(3y)8.75%
ROIC(5y)N/A
VST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICVST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

  • VST's Profit Margin of 4.24% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 55.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • With a Operating Margin value of 12.03%, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • VST's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • VST has a Gross Margin of 97.28%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VST has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.03%
PM (TTM) 4.24%
GM 97.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.8%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-5.27%
GM growth 3Y-0.92%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
VST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsVST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 400

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3

2. VST Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is creating some value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 5 years ago, VST has less shares outstanding
  • The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
VST Yearly Shares OutstandingVST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100M 200M 300M 400M
VST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsVST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B 40B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.36, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • VST has a Altman-Z score of 1.36. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 162.19. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 162.19 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 162.19 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 65.00% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.74 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 3.74, VST is doing worse than 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.74
Debt/FCF 162.19
Altman-Z 1.36
ROIC/WACC0.7
WACC7.69%
VST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFVST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.78 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • VST has a Current ratio of 0.78. This is in the lower half of the industry: VST underperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a Quick Ratio of 0.78. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • VST has a Quick ratio of 0.69. This is in the lower half of the industry: VST underperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.78
Quick Ratio 0.69
VST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesVST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. VST Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -70.43%.
  • Measured over the past 5 years, VST shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 6.65% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.98% in the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, VST shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 9.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-70.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y6.65%
EPS Q2Q%-42.55%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.98%
Revenue growth 3Y8.92%
Revenue growth 5Y9.16%
Sales Q2Q%23.36%

3.2 Future

  • VST is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 56.82% yearly.
  • VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.68% yearly.
EPS Next Y330.84%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
EPS Next 5Y56.82%
Revenue Next Year18.19%
Revenue Next 2Y13.39%
Revenue Next 3Y9.84%
Revenue Next 5Y5.68%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
VST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesVST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
VST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesVST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 5 10 15

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5

4. VST Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 73.23, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of VST is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.21), we can say VST is valued expensively.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.00, the valuation of VST can be described as correct.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.13. VST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 73.23
Fwd PE 17
VST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsVST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100

4.2 Price Multiples

  • VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 395.96
EV/EBITDA 13.41
VST Per share dataVST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • VST's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • VST's earnings are expected to grow with 82.99% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.22
PEG (5Y)11.01
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. VST Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a yearly dividend of 0.59%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.32, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.59, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.59%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 21.96%, which is quite nice.
  • VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)21.96%
Div Incr Years6
Div Non Decr Years6
VST Yearly Dividends per shareVST Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

5.3 Sustainability

  • VST pays out 66.22% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
  • VST's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP66.22%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
VST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendVST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B 20B
VST Dividend Payout.VST Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.VST Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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VST Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

VISTRA CORP

NYSE:VST (4/6/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

Premarket: 150.78 -0.81 (-0.53%)

151.59

+0.41 (+0.27%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)02-26
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners92.41%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.56%
Ins Owner Change0.83%
Market Cap51.08B
Revenue(TTM)17.74B
Net Income(TTM)752.00M
Analysts83.33
Price Target226.12 (49.17%)
Short Float %2.64%
Short Ratio1.65
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.59%
Yearly Dividend1.47
Dividend Growth(5Y)21.96%
DP66.22%
Div Incr Years6
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date03-20
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-47.42%
Min EPS beat(2)-77.2%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-94.96%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-31.08%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)472.7%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)263.62%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-17.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-14.83%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-12.78%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.07%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.02%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-6.31%
PT rev (1m)-0.16%
PT rev (3m)-4.24%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.19%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.88%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.37%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)4.06%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.62%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.85%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 73.23
Fwd PE 17
P/S 2.88
P/FCF 395.96
P/OCF 12.55
P/B 10.02
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 13.41
EPS(TTM)2.07
EY1.37%
EPS(NY)8.92
Fwd EY5.88%
FCF(TTM)0.38
FCFY0.25%
OCF(TTM)12.08
OCFY7.97%
SpS52.64
BVpS15.13
TBVpS-0.44
PEG (NY)0.22
PEG (5Y)11.01
Graham Number26.54
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.81%
ROE 14.75%
ROCE 7.18%
ROIC 5.38%
ROICexc 5.51%
ROICexgc 6.59%
OM 12.03%
PM (TTM) 4.24%
GM 97.28%
FCFM 0.73%
ROA(3y)4.14%
ROA(5y)0.77%
ROE(3y)28.12%
ROE(5y)8.13%
ROIC(3y)8.75%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)9.52%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)11.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)10.93%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-6.03%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.52%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.8%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-5.27%
GM growth 3Y-0.92%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.74
Debt/FCF 162.19
Debt/EBITDA 3.75
Cap/Depr 133.59%
Cap/Sales 22.22%
Interest Coverage 2.05
Cash Conversion 80.06%
Profit Quality 17.15%
Current Ratio 0.78
Quick Ratio 0.69
Altman-Z 1.36
F-Score5
WACC7.69%
ROIC/WACC0.7
Cap/Depr(3y)133.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)121.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)20%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.5%
Profit Quality(3y)89.89%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-70.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y6.65%
EPS Q2Q%-42.55%
EPS Next Y330.84%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
EPS Next 5Y56.82%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.98%
Revenue growth 3Y8.92%
Revenue growth 5Y9.16%
Sales Q2Q%23.36%
Revenue Next Year18.19%
Revenue Next 2Y13.39%
Revenue Next 3Y9.84%
Revenue Next 5Y5.68%
EBIT growth 1Y-47.71%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y2.83%
EBIT Next Year111.89%
EBIT Next 3Y36.65%
EBIT Next 5Y23.9%
FCF growth 1Y-89.75%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-39.37%
OCF growth 1Y-10.8%
OCF growth 3Y103.21%
OCF growth 5Y4.05%

VISTRA CORP / VST Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to VST.


Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for VISTRA CORP?

VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for VST stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for VISTRA CORP (VST) is 73.23 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 10.02.


What is the earnings growth outlook for VISTRA CORP?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to grow by 330.84% in the next year.