VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA • New York Stock Exchange • NYSE:VST • US92840M1027

160.78 USD
+1.18 (+0.74%)
Last: Feb 11, 2026, 02:57 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Analyst Ratings Earnings Estimates Financials Ownership News
Fundamental Rating

4

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. There are concerns on the financial health of VST while its profitability can be described as average. While showing a medium growth rate, VST is valued expensive at the moment.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • VST had positive earnings in the past year.
  • VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
VST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFVST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • VST has a Return On Assets of 2.52%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
  • With an excellent Return On Equity value of 18.43%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • VST has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.32%) than 85.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.52%
ROE 18.43%
ROIC 5.32%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
VST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICVST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of VST (5.58%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 12.24%, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • VST's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.24%
PM (TTM) 5.58%
GM N/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
VST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsVST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300 400

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
  • VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
VST Yearly Shares OutstandingVST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M
VST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsVST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10B 20B 30B

2.2 Solvency

  • VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.62. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.62, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of VST (44.74) is better than 70.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 3.42, VST is doing worse than 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.42
Debt/FCF 44.74
Altman-Z 1.62
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC7.86%
VST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFVST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • VST has a Current Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • With a Current ratio value of 0.99, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a Quick ratio value of 0.88, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.99
Quick Ratio 0.88
VST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesVST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -55.17%.
  • Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 30.49% on average per year.
  • Looking at the last year, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.69% in the last year.
  • VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%

3.2 Future

  • VST is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 13.74% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.72% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-23.8%
EPS Next 2Y12.92%
EPS Next 3Y16.42%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year13.69%
Revenue Next 2Y15.33%
Revenue Next 3Y12.61%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
VST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesVST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
VST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesVST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 5 10

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3

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 65.09, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 65.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.03. VST is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.01, the valuation of VST can be described as rather expensive.
  • 80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 27.97. VST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 65.09
Fwd PE 18.01
VST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsVST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100 150

4.2 Price Multiples

  • The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VST.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 70.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 130.02
EV/EBITDA 14.01
VST Per share dataVST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • VST's earnings are expected to grow with 16.42% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.13
EPS Next 2Y12.92%
EPS Next 3Y16.42%

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • With a yearly dividend of 0.60%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.60.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.60, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.80.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.6%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
  • VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
VST Yearly Dividends per shareVST Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

5.3 Sustainability

  • VST pays out 51.67% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
  • The dividend of VST is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y12.92%
EPS Next 3Y16.42%
VST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendVST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B
VST Dividend Payout.VST Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.VST Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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VISTRA CORP

NYSE:VST (2/11/2026, 2:57:00 PM)

160.78

+1.18 (+0.74%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)11-06
Earnings (Next)02-26
Inst Owners92.62%
Inst Owner Change-1.86%
Ins Owners0.47%
Ins Owner Change0.15%
Market Cap54.48B
Revenue(TTM)17.19B
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts81.6
Price Target227.29 (41.37%)
Short Float %2.68%
Short Ratio1.79
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.6%
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)-3.74%
PT rev (3m)-2.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)5.38%
EPS NQ rev (3m)10.62%
EPS NY rev (1m)-4.86%
EPS NY rev (3m)-8.31%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.18%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)6.68%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.73%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 65.09
Fwd PE 18.01
P/S 3.17
P/FCF 130.02
P/OCF 13.65
P/B 10.46
P/tB 179.79
EV/EBITDA 14.01
EPS(TTM)2.47
EY1.54%
EPS(NY)8.93
Fwd EY5.55%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.77%
OCF(TTM)11.78
OCFY7.33%
SpS50.74
BVpS15.38
TBVpS0.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.13
Graham Number29.23
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.52%
ROE 18.43%
ROCE 7.11%
ROIC 5.32%
ROICexc 5.42%
ROICexgc 6.47%
OM 12.24%
PM (TTM) 5.58%
GM N/A
FCFM 2.44%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.42
Debt/FCF 44.74
Debt/EBITDA 3.51
Cap/Depr 120.47%
Cap/Sales 20.78%
Interest Coverage 2.02
Cash Conversion 78.73%
Profit Quality 43.65%
Current Ratio 0.99
Quick Ratio 0.88
Altman-Z 1.62
F-Score5
WACC7.86%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
EPS Next Y-23.8%
EPS Next 2Y12.92%
EPS Next 3Y16.42%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
Revenue Next Year13.69%
Revenue Next 2Y15.33%
Revenue Next 3Y12.61%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year63.6%
EBIT Next 3Y30.55%
EBIT Next 5Y19.88%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%

VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.


Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.


How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?

The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -23.8% in the next year.