VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
160.12 USD
-0.24 (-0.15%)
159.73 USD
-0.39 (-0.24%)
Taking everything into account, VST scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. VST is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year VST was profitable.
- In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
- The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
- VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- VST has a Return On Assets of 2.52%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a Return On Equity of 18.43%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.32%) than 85.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.58%, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- VST has a Operating Margin (12.24%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- VST's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
- VST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- Compared to 5 years ago, VST has less shares outstanding
- VST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
- Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.62, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
- VST has a better Altman-Z score (1.62) than 75.00% of its industry peers.
- VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 44.74. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 44.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of VST (44.74) is better than 70.00% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
- The Debt to Equity ratio of VST (3.42) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.62 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC7.88%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 0.99 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- With a decent Current ratio value of 0.99, VST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST has a Quick Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- With a Quick ratio value of 0.88, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for VST have decreased strongly by -55.17% in the last year.
- Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 30.49% on average per year.
- Looking at the last year, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.69% in the last year.
- VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 13.74% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
- Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.72% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-24.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year13.69%
Revenue Next 2Y15.33%
Revenue Next 3Y12.61%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
3.3 Evolution
- The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- VST is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 64.83.
- VST's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.21), we can say VST is valued expensively.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.87 indicates a rather expensive valuation of VST.
- 80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
- VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 25.98.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 64.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.87 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 129.48 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.04 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 16.62% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.13
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.57%, which is pretty low.
- The stock price of VST dropped by -20.52% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
- VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.36.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.81, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.57% |
5.2 History
- On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
- VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
- VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
- 51.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
- VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.15%
EPS Next 3Y16.62%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -24.3% in the next year.