VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
201.35 USD
-9.05 (-4.3%)
200.5 USD
-0.85 (-0.42%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of VST get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. VST is showing excellent growth while it is valued at reasonable prices. Keep and eye on this one!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
VST has a better Return On Assets (5.76%) than 95.00% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of VST (45.53%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 9.26%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.76% | ||
| ROE | 45.53% | ||
| ROIC | 9.26% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VST (11.87%) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 19.72%, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 19.72% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.87% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
VST has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
VST has an Altman-Z score of 2.03. This is not the best score and indicates that VST is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
VST has a Altman-Z score of 2.03. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 48.90, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 48.90 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
VST has a better Debt to FCF ratio (48.90) than 75.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.81 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
VST has a Debt to Equity ratio (3.81) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.81 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 48.9 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.03 |
ROIC/WACC1.18
WACC7.87%
2.3 Liquidity
VST has a Current Ratio of 0.90. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST has a Current ratio (0.90) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.80 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.80, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.8 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 350.00% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 30.49% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 31.61% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
Measured over the past years, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.84% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)350%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-21.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.61%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%10.53%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 16.37% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 8.49% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y-7.46%
EPS Next 2Y12.34%
EPS Next 3Y12.85%
EPS Next 5Y16.37%
Revenue Next Year20.02%
Revenue Next 2Y15.28%
Revenue Next 3Y13.28%
Revenue Next 5Y8.49%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 32.90, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued cheaper than 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.40. VST is valued slightly more expensive when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.79, the valuation of VST can be described as rather expensive.
80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.94. VST is around the same levels.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.79 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VST.
70.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 173.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.27 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
VST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 12.85% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.08
EPS Next 2Y12.34%
EPS Next 3Y12.85%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.43%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.35, VST has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.43, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.43% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 22.79%!
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
22.81% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of VST is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP22.81%
EPS Next 2Y12.34%
EPS Next 3Y12.85%
201.35
-9.05 (-4.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.08%
Inst Owner Change-0.12%
Ins Owners0.48%
Ins Owner Change-0.17%
Market Cap68.22B
Analysts82.5
Price Target220.58 (9.55%)
Short Float %2.16%
Short Ratio1.58
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.43% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP22.81%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-142.51%
Min EPS beat(2)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(2)-42.47%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)3.87%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.88%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)470.52%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)262.9%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.47%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.38%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)3.18%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.57%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.88%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-9.57%
PT rev (1m)4.06%
PT rev (3m)21.22%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-5.8%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.8%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.26%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.16%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.93%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.79 | ||
| P/S | 3.69 | ||
| P/FCF | 173.15 | ||
| P/OCF | 16.14 | ||
| P/B | 14.15 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.27 |
EPS(TTM)6.12
EY3.04%
EPS(NY)8.83
Fwd EY4.39%
FCF(TTM)1.16
FCFY0.58%
OCF(TTM)12.47
OCFY6.19%
SpS54.62
BVpS14.23
TBVpS-0.71
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.08
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.76% | ||
| ROE | 45.53% | ||
| ROCE | 12.71% | ||
| ROIC | 9.26% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.4% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.29% | ||
| OM | 19.72% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.87% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 2.13% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.81 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 48.9 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.77 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 128.25% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.7% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.4 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 63.66% | ||
| Profit Quality | 17.94% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.9 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.8 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.03 |
F-Score7
WACC7.87%
ROIC/WACC1.18
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)350%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-21.11%
EPS Next Y-7.46%
EPS Next 2Y12.34%
EPS Next 3Y12.85%
EPS Next 5Y16.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.61%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%10.53%
Revenue Next Year20.02%
Revenue Next 2Y15.28%
Revenue Next 3Y13.28%
Revenue Next 5Y8.49%
EBIT growth 1Y99.45%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year65.12%
EBIT Next 3Y27.55%
EBIT Next 5Y19.69%
FCF growth 1Y-71.26%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y0.14%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%