VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:VLO - US91913Y1001 - Common Stock
170.14 USD
+1.03 (+0.61%)
171.8 USD
+1.66 (+0.98%)
Taking everything into account, VLO scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. VLO was compared to 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While VLO has a great health rating, there are worries on its profitability. VLO does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VLO was profitable.
VLO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
VLO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years VLO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
VLO has a Return On Assets (2.54%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 6.26%, VLO is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.19% of the companies in the same industry.
VLO has a Return On Invested Capital (5.59%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for VLO is below the industry average of 21.78%.
The 3 year average ROIC (18.62%) for VLO is well above the current ROIC(5.59%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VLO (1.21%) is worse than 62.86% of its industry peers.
VLO's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 2.51%, VLO is doing worse than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VLO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
VLO's Gross Margin of 3.38% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. VLO is outperformed by 75.24% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VLO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% |
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VLO is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for VLO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
VLO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, VLO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 4.48 indicates that VLO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of VLO (4.48) is better than 88.10% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VLO is 2.67, which is a good value as it means it would take VLO, 2.67 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
VLO's Debt to FCF ratio of 2.67 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VLO outperforms 78.10% of its industry peers.
VLO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.41, VLO is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.29% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.48 |
ROIC/WACC0.69
WACC8.09%
2.3 Liquidity
VLO has a Current Ratio of 1.60. This is a normal value and indicates that VLO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of VLO (1.60) is better than 70.95% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.09 indicates that VLO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.09, VLO is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.67% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for VLO have decreased strongly by -33.42% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, VLO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 8.76% on average per year.
VLO shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -8.52%.
VLO shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 3.70% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
3.2 Future
VLO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 15.77% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, VLO will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.51% on average per year.
EPS Next Y4.48%
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y13.82%
EPS Next 5Y15.77%
Revenue Next Year-8.24%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.31%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 22.78 indicates a rather expensive valuation of VLO.
VLO's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.13. VLO is around the same levels.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 14.59, which indicates a correct valuation of VLO.
VLO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
VLO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.35, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.78 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.59 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of VLO is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VLO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.67% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.35 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.53 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates VLO does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as VLO's earnings are expected to grow with 13.82% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)5.08
PEG (5Y)2.6
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y13.82%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VLO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.66%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
VLO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.83.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.39, VLO has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VLO has a limited annual growth rate of 3.43%.
VLO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
VLO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
5.3 Sustainability
94.09% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VLO. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
VLO's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP94.09%
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y13.82%
170.14
+1.03 (+0.61%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners86.61%
Inst Owner Change-1.32%
Ins Owners0.36%
Ins Owner Change0.34%
Market Cap52.85B
Revenue(TTM)123.07B
Net Income(TTM)1.49B
Analysts78.33
Price Target183.19 (7.67%)
Short Float %3.86%
Short Ratio4.45
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% |
Yearly Dividend4.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
DP94.09%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)24.42%
Min EPS beat(2)18.81%
Max EPS beat(2)30.02%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)248.14%
Min EPS beat(4)18.81%
Max EPS beat(4)834.33%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)130.8%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)89.81%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)73.1%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)7.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.72%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.72%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.36%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.45%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)5.87%
PT rev (1m)11.36%
PT rev (3m)16.79%
EPS NQ rev (1m)30.27%
EPS NQ rev (3m)73.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.48%
EPS NY rev (3m)26.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.05%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.32%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.36%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.78 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.59 | ||
| P/S | 0.43 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.35 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.92 | ||
| P/B | 2.23 | ||
| P/tB | 2.23 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.53 |
EPS(TTM)7.47
EY4.39%
EPS(NY)11.67
Fwd EY6.86%
FCF(TTM)12.75
FCFY7.49%
OCF(TTM)15.58
OCFY9.16%
SpS396.17
BVpS76.47
TBVpS76.47
PEG (NY)5.08
PEG (5Y)2.6
Graham Number113.37
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROCE | 7.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.27% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.27% | ||
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.22% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.98%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)21.17%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)23.41%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.52%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-0.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.91%
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover2.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 28.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.71% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.67 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 79.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | 266.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.48 |
F-Score5
WACC8.09%
ROIC/WACC0.69
Cap/Depr(3y)44.8%
Cap/Depr(5y)55.94%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.76%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.3%
Profit Quality(3y)132.8%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
EPS Next Y4.48%
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y13.82%
EPS Next 5Y15.77%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
Revenue Next Year-8.24%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.31%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
EBIT growth 1Y-37.8%
EBIT growth 3Y20.8%
EBIT growth 5Y0.04%
EBIT Next Year79.86%
EBIT Next 3Y30.19%
EBIT Next 5Y20.34%
FCF growth 1Y-64.05%
FCF growth 3Y11.26%
FCF growth 5Y10.31%
OCF growth 1Y-59.96%
OCF growth 3Y4.48%
OCF growth 5Y3.86%
VALERO ENERGY CORP / VLO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VALERO ENERGY CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VLO.
What is the valuation status for VLO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of VLO stock?
VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.
What is the valuation of VALERO ENERGY CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is 22.78 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.23.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for VLO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is expected to grow by 4.48% in the next year.