VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:VLO - US91913Y1001 - Common Stock
175.78 USD
-1.76 (-0.99%)
175.18 USD
-0.6 (-0.34%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to VLO. VLO was compared to 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. VLO has a great financial health rating, but its profitability evaluates not so good. VLO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
VLO had positive earnings in the past year.
VLO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
VLO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years VLO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of VLO (2.54%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
VLO has a Return On Equity (6.26%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.59%, VLO is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.48% of the companies in the same industry.
VLO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 18.62%. This is below the industry average of 21.85%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.59%) for VLO is well below the 3 year average (18.62%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that VLO had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VLO (1.21%) is worse than 63.33% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VLO has remained more or less at the same level.
With a Operating Margin value of 2.51%, VLO is not doing good in the industry: 69.52% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
VLO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 3.38%, VLO is not doing good in the industry: 75.24% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VLO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% |
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VLO is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for VLO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
VLO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
VLO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
VLO has an Altman-Z score of 4.53. This indicates that VLO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
VLO has a better Altman-Z score (4.53) than 89.52% of its industry peers.
VLO has a debt to FCF ratio of 2.67. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as VLO would need 2.67 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VLO (2.67) is better than 79.05% of its industry peers.
VLO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
VLO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.41) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.53 |
ROIC/WACC0.7
WACC7.95%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.60 indicates that VLO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
VLO has a better Current ratio (1.60) than 70.48% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.09 indicates that VLO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
VLO has a Quick ratio (1.09) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VLO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -33.42%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 8.76% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, VLO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -8.52% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, VLO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 3.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, VLO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.48% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, VLO will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.51% on average per year.
EPS Next Y17.86%
EPS Next 2Y17.98%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
EPS Next 5Y13.48%
Revenue Next Year-6.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.58%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 23.53, VLO is valued on the expensive side.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of VLO is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of VLO to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.91), we can say VLO is valued inline with the index average.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.20, VLO is valued correctly.
VLO's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
VLO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 34.57.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.2 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VLO.
66.67% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VLO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.79 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.96 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.32
PEG (5Y)2.69
EPS Next 2Y17.98%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VLO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.66%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.88, VLO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, VLO has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VLO has a limited annual growth rate of 3.43%.
VLO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
VLO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
5.3 Sustainability
94.09% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VLO. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
VLO's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP94.09%
EPS Next 2Y17.98%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
175.78
-1.76 (-0.99%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners86.61%
Inst Owner Change-1.85%
Ins Owners0.36%
Ins Owner Change0.29%
Market Cap54.61B
Revenue(TTM)123.07B
Net Income(TTM)1.49B
Analysts77.6
Price Target183.19 (4.22%)
Short Float %3.86%
Short Ratio4.45
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% |
Yearly Dividend4.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
DP94.09%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)24.42%
Min EPS beat(2)18.81%
Max EPS beat(2)30.02%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)248.14%
Min EPS beat(4)18.81%
Max EPS beat(4)834.33%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)130.8%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)89.81%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)73.1%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)7.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.72%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.72%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.36%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.45%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)5.87%
PT rev (1m)5.51%
PT rev (3m)14.62%
EPS NQ rev (1m)33.83%
EPS NQ rev (3m)78.74%
EPS NY rev (1m)15.6%
EPS NY rev (3m)42.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.85%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.54%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.73%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.99%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.2 | ||
| P/S | 0.44 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.79 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.28 | ||
| P/B | 2.3 | ||
| P/tB | 2.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.96 |
EPS(TTM)7.47
EY4.25%
EPS(NY)11.57
Fwd EY6.58%
FCF(TTM)12.75
FCFY7.25%
OCF(TTM)15.58
OCFY8.86%
SpS396.17
BVpS76.47
TBVpS76.47
PEG (NY)1.32
PEG (5Y)2.69
Graham Number113.37
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROCE | 7.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.27% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.27% | ||
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.22% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.98%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)21.17%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)23.41%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.52%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-0.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.91%
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover2.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 28.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.71% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.67 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 79.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | 266.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.53 |
F-Score5
WACC7.95%
ROIC/WACC0.7
Cap/Depr(3y)44.8%
Cap/Depr(5y)55.94%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.76%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.3%
Profit Quality(3y)132.8%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
EPS Next Y17.86%
EPS Next 2Y17.98%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
EPS Next 5Y13.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
Revenue Next Year-6.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.58%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
EBIT growth 1Y-37.8%
EBIT growth 3Y20.8%
EBIT growth 5Y0.04%
EBIT Next Year79.86%
EBIT Next 3Y30.19%
EBIT Next 5Y19.46%
FCF growth 1Y-64.05%
FCF growth 3Y11.26%
FCF growth 5Y10.31%
OCF growth 1Y-59.96%
OCF growth 3Y4.48%
OCF growth 5Y3.86%
VALERO ENERGY CORP / VLO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VALERO ENERGY CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VLO.
What is the valuation status for VLO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of VLO stock?
VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.
What is the valuation of VALERO ENERGY CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is 23.53 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.3.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for VLO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is expected to grow by 17.86% in the next year.