VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VLO - US91913Y1001 - Common Stock
167.9 USD
-0.4 (-0.24%)
166.9 USD
-1 (-0.6%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to VLO. VLO was compared to 208 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While VLO has a great health rating, there are worries on its profitability. VLO has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
VLO had positive earnings in the past year.
VLO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
VLO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
VLO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
VLO has a Return On Assets (2.54%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of VLO (6.26%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of VLO (5.59%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for VLO is below the industry average of 20.87%.
The 3 year average ROIC (18.62%) for VLO is well above the current ROIC(5.59%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VLO (1.21%) is worse than 63.46% of its industry peers.
VLO's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
VLO has a worse Operating Margin (2.51%) than 71.63% of its industry peers.
VLO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
VLO has a worse Gross Margin (3.38%) than 77.40% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VLO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% |
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VLO is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for VLO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for VLO has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
VLO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 4.46 indicates that VLO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 4.46, VLO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 89.42% of the companies in the same industry.
VLO has a debt to FCF ratio of 2.67. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as VLO would need 2.67 years to pay back of all of its debts.
VLO has a better Debt to FCF ratio (2.67) than 78.85% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that VLO is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of VLO (0.41) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.46 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC8.29%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.60 indicates that VLO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
VLO has a Current ratio of 1.60. This is in the better half of the industry: VLO outperforms 69.71% of its industry peers.
VLO has a Quick Ratio of 1.09. This is a normal value and indicates that VLO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VLO has a Quick ratio of 1.09. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VLO outperforms 55.29% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VLO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -33.42%.
VLO shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 8.76% yearly.
VLO shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -8.52%.
Measured over the past years, VLO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 3.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, VLO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.48% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -2.51% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y23.68%
EPS Next 2Y25.33%
EPS Next 3Y17.08%
EPS Next 5Y13.48%
Revenue Next Year-6.83%
Revenue Next 2Y-7.37%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.94%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 22.48 indicates a rather expensive valuation of VLO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of VLO is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of VLO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.55), we can say VLO is valued inline with the index average.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.86, VLO is valued correctly.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as VLO.
VLO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.78, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.86 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VLO.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VLO is valued a bit cheaper than 67.31% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.93 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.31 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
VLO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as VLO's earnings are expected to grow with 17.08% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)2.56
EPS Next 2Y25.33%
EPS Next 3Y17.08%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VLO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.57%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.83, VLO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
VLO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 1.87.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.57% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VLO has a limited annual growth rate of 3.43%.
VLO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
VLO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
5.3 Sustainability
94.09% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VLO. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
VLO's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP94.09%
EPS Next 2Y25.33%
EPS Next 3Y17.08%
167.9
-0.4 (-0.24%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners85.06%
Inst Owner Change-4.18%
Ins Owners0.32%
Ins Owner Change-0.49%
Market Cap51.21B
Revenue(TTM)123.07B
Net Income(TTM)1.49B
Analysts77.6
Price Target189.7 (12.98%)
Short Float %3.75%
Short Ratio4.45
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.57% |
Yearly Dividend4.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
DP94.09%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)24.42%
Min EPS beat(2)18.81%
Max EPS beat(2)30.02%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)248.14%
Min EPS beat(4)18.81%
Max EPS beat(4)834.33%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)130.8%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)89.81%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)73.1%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)7.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.72%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.72%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.36%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.45%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)5.87%
PT rev (1m)3.55%
PT rev (3m)15.31%
EPS NQ rev (1m)20.12%
EPS NQ rev (3m)79.53%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.94%
EPS NY rev (3m)28.03%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.11%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.86 | ||
| P/S | 0.42 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.93 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.58 | ||
| P/B | 2.16 | ||
| P/tB | 2.16 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.31 |
EPS(TTM)7.47
EY4.45%
EPS(NY)13.05
Fwd EY7.77%
FCF(TTM)12.98
FCFY7.73%
OCF(TTM)15.87
OCFY9.45%
SpS403.5
BVpS77.88
TBVpS77.88
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)2.56
Graham Number114.41
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROCE | 7.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.27% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.27% | ||
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.22% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.98%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)21.17%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)23.41%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.52%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-0.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.91%
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover2.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 28.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.71% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.67 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 79.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | 266.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.46 |
F-Score5
WACC8.29%
ROIC/WACC0.67
Cap/Depr(3y)44.8%
Cap/Depr(5y)55.94%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.76%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.3%
Profit Quality(3y)132.8%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
EPS Next Y23.68%
EPS Next 2Y25.33%
EPS Next 3Y17.08%
EPS Next 5Y13.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
Revenue Next Year-6.83%
Revenue Next 2Y-7.37%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.94%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
EBIT growth 1Y-37.8%
EBIT growth 3Y20.8%
EBIT growth 5Y0.04%
EBIT Next Year102.36%
EBIT Next 3Y30.55%
EBIT Next 5Y19.46%
FCF growth 1Y-64.05%
FCF growth 3Y11.26%
FCF growth 5Y10.31%
OCF growth 1Y-59.96%
OCF growth 3Y4.48%
OCF growth 5Y3.86%
VALERO ENERGY CORP / VLO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VALERO ENERGY CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VLO.
What is the valuation status for VLO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of VLO stock?
VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.
What is the valuation of VALERO ENERGY CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is 22.48 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.16.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for VLO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is expected to grow by 23.68% in the next year.