VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VLO - US91913Y1001 - Common Stock
176.76 USD
+2.29 (+1.31%)
177.27 USD
+0.51 (+0.29%)
VLO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 209 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While VLO has a great health rating, there are worries on its profitability. VLO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
VLO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year VLO had a positive cash flow from operations.
VLO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years VLO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.54%, VLO is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.93% of the companies in the same industry.
VLO has a Return On Equity of 6.26%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VLO outperforms 47.37% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 5.59%, VLO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.80% of the companies in the same industry.
VLO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 18.62%. This is below the industry average of 21.47%.
The 3 year average ROIC (18.62%) for VLO is well above the current ROIC(5.59%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 1.21%, VLO is not doing good in the industry: 63.64% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VLO has remained more or less at the same level.
VLO's Operating Margin of 2.51% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. VLO is outperformed by 70.81% of its industry peers.
VLO's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of VLO (3.38%) is worse than 76.56% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VLO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% |
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VLO is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for VLO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
VLO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, VLO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
VLO has an Altman-Z score of 4.51. This indicates that VLO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 4.51, VLO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 89.47% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VLO is 2.67, which is a good value as it means it would take VLO, 2.67 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
VLO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 2.67. This is in the better half of the industry: VLO outperforms 79.43% of its industry peers.
VLO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of VLO (0.41) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.51 |
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC8.22%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.60 indicates that VLO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.60, VLO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.33% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.09 indicates that VLO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
VLO's Quick ratio of 1.09 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VLO outperforms 55.50% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VLO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -33.42%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 8.76% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, VLO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -8.52% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, VLO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 3.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 13.48% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, VLO will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.51% on average per year.
EPS Next Y17.86%
EPS Next 2Y17.98%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
EPS Next 5Y13.48%
Revenue Next Year-6.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.58%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 23.66 indicates a rather expensive valuation of VLO.
VLO's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of VLO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.31), we can say VLO is valued inline with the index average.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.28, the valuation of VLO can be described as correct.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VLO is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 36.56, VLO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.28 |
4.2 Price Multiples
VLO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VLO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.99% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.61 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.75 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
VLO's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.33
PEG (5Y)2.7
EPS Next 2Y17.98%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.59%, VLO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.94, VLO has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
VLO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.59% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VLO has a limited annual growth rate of 3.43%.
VLO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
VLO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
5.3 Sustainability
94.09% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VLO. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of VLO is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP94.09%
EPS Next 2Y17.98%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
176.76
+2.29 (+1.31%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners86.61%
Inst Owner Change-4.2%
Ins Owners0.36%
Ins Owner Change-0.47%
Market Cap53.91B
Revenue(TTM)123.07B
Net Income(TTM)1.49B
Analysts77.6
Price Target186.16 (5.32%)
Short Float %3.67%
Short Ratio4.3
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.59% |
Yearly Dividend4.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
DP94.09%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)24.42%
Min EPS beat(2)18.81%
Max EPS beat(2)30.02%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)248.14%
Min EPS beat(4)18.81%
Max EPS beat(4)834.33%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)130.8%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)89.81%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)73.1%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)7.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.72%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.72%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.36%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.45%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)5.87%
PT rev (1m)1.62%
PT rev (3m)16.63%
EPS NQ rev (1m)14.88%
EPS NQ rev (3m)95.1%
EPS NY rev (1m)12.8%
EPS NY rev (3m)22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.2%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.43%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.63%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.9%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.28 | ||
| P/S | 0.44 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.61 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.14 | ||
| P/B | 2.27 | ||
| P/tB | 2.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.75 |
EPS(TTM)7.47
EY4.23%
EPS(NY)11.57
Fwd EY6.54%
FCF(TTM)12.98
FCFY7.35%
OCF(TTM)15.87
OCFY8.98%
SpS403.5
BVpS77.88
TBVpS77.88
PEG (NY)1.33
PEG (5Y)2.7
Graham Number114.41
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROCE | 7.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.27% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.27% | ||
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.22% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.98%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)21.17%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)23.41%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.52%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-0.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.91%
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover2.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 28.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.71% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.67 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 79.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | 266.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.51 |
F-Score5
WACC8.22%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)44.8%
Cap/Depr(5y)55.94%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.76%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.3%
Profit Quality(3y)132.8%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
EPS Next Y17.86%
EPS Next 2Y17.98%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
EPS Next 5Y13.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
Revenue Next Year-6.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.58%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
EBIT growth 1Y-37.8%
EBIT growth 3Y20.8%
EBIT growth 5Y0.04%
EBIT Next Year79.86%
EBIT Next 3Y30.19%
EBIT Next 5Y19.46%
FCF growth 1Y-64.05%
FCF growth 3Y11.26%
FCF growth 5Y10.31%
OCF growth 1Y-59.96%
OCF growth 3Y4.48%
OCF growth 5Y3.86%
VALERO ENERGY CORP / VLO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VALERO ENERGY CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VLO.
What is the valuation status for VLO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of VLO stock?
VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.
What is the valuation of VALERO ENERGY CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is 23.66 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.27.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for VLO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is expected to grow by 17.86% in the next year.