MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLD (VAC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:VAC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US57164Y1073 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, VAC scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. VAC was compared to 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While VAC is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. VAC has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
VAC had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year VAC had a positive cash flow from operations.
VAC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years VAC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
VAC has a Return On Assets (2.08%) which is in line with its industry peers.
VAC has a better Return On Equity (8.39%) than 64.89% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of VAC (4.03%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
VAC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.62%. This is significantly below the industry average of 10.84%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.08% | ||
| ROE | 8.39% | ||
| ROIC | 4.03% |
ROA(3y)2.4%
ROA(5y)1.12%
ROE(3y)9.32%
ROE(5y)4.43%
ROIC(3y)4.62%
ROIC(5y)3.73%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 4.20%, VAC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.96% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VAC has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of VAC (11.38%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
VAC's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 49.50%, VAC is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.73% of the companies in the same industry.
VAC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.2% | ||
| GM | 49.5% |
OM growth 3Y121.45%
OM growth 5Y3.32%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y23.73%
GM growth 3Y8.37%
GM growth 5Y0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VAC is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for VAC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
VAC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for VAC is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.10, we must say that VAC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
VAC's Altman-Z score of 1.10 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. VAC is outperformed by 64.89% of its industry peers.
VAC has a debt to FCF ratio of 76.61. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VAC would need 76.61 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 76.61, VAC is not doing good in the industry: 63.36% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
VAC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.19. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of VAC (2.19) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.19 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 76.61 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.1 |
ROIC/WACC0.56
WACC7.21%
2.3 Liquidity
VAC has a Current Ratio of 1.55. This is a normal value and indicates that VAC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VAC's Current ratio of 1.55 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VAC outperforms 74.05% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.62 indicates that VAC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
VAC's Quick ratio of 0.62 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. VAC is outperformed by 64.89% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.62 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VAC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -24.11%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 5.38% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, VAC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 2.39% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, VAC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 9.76% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-24.11%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y5.38%
EPS Q2Q%50%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.39%
Revenue growth 3Y17.88%
Revenue growth 5Y9.76%
Sales Q2Q%10.03%
3.2 Future
VAC is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 3.21% yearly.
VAC is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.28% yearly.
EPS Next Y-19.15%
EPS Next 2Y-1.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.21%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.45%
Revenue Next 2Y4.74%
Revenue Next 3Y4.28%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.79, VAC is valued correctly.
VAC's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. VAC is cheaper than 89.31% of the companies in the same industry.
VAC is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.62, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.02, which indicates a very decent valuation of VAC.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VAC is valued cheaper than 92.37% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VAC to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.70), we can say VAC is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.02 |
4.2 Price Multiples
VAC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
VAC's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 42.57 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.55 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.38
EPS Next 2Y-1.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.21%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VAC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.59%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.13, VAC pays a better dividend. On top of this VAC pays more dividend than 88.55% of the companies listed in the same industry.
VAC's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.27.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.59% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VAC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 15.66%!
VAC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
VAC has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.66%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
VAC pays out 52.71% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of VAC is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP52.71%
EPS Next 2Y-1.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.21%
84.14
-3.78 (-4.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners85.93%
Inst Owner Change-87.82%
Ins Owners1.48%
Ins Owner Change-1.26%
Market Cap2.94B
Analysts70.67
Price Target108.83 (29.34%)
Short Float %4.52%
Short Ratio4.88
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.59% |
Yearly Dividend2.91
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.66%
DP52.71%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-15.96%
Min EPS beat(2)-45.35%
Max EPS beat(2)13.43%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-45.35%
Max EPS beat(4)13.43%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-7.15%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)0.43%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)-13.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.42%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.79%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.95%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-8.42%
Min Revenue beat(4)-32.21%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-5.01%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.67%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.03%
PT rev (1m)-1%
PT rev (3m)5.64%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.33%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-7.74%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.48%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.53%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.16%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.24%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.96%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.02 | ||
| P/S | 0.61 | ||
| P/FCF | 42.57 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.62 | ||
| P/B | 1.21 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.55 |
EPS(TTM)6.58
EY7.82%
EPS(NY)7.64
Fwd EY9.07%
FCF(TTM)1.98
FCFY2.35%
OCF(TTM)5.39
OCFY6.4%
SpS138.47
BVpS69.29
TBVpS-43.11
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.38
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.08% | ||
| ROE | 8.39% | ||
| ROCE | 6.17% | ||
| ROIC | 4.03% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.12% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.58% | ||
| OM | 11.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.2% | ||
| GM | 49.5% | ||
| FCFM | 1.43% |
ROA(3y)2.4%
ROA(5y)1.12%
ROE(3y)9.32%
ROE(5y)4.43%
ROIC(3y)4.62%
ROIC(5y)3.73%
ROICexc(3y)4.84%
ROICexc(5y)3.9%
ROICexgc(3y)10.41%
ROICexgc(5y)8.38%
ROCE(3y)7.08%
ROCE(5y)5.72%
ROICexcg growth 3Y141.84%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.6%
ROICexc growth 3Y150.29%
ROICexc growth 5Y11.58%
OM growth 3Y121.45%
OM growth 5Y3.32%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y23.73%
GM growth 3Y8.37%
GM growth 5Y0.54%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.19 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 76.61 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.61 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 82.07% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.46% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.27 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 27.05% | ||
| Profit Quality | 33.99% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.1 |
F-Score4
WACC7.21%
ROIC/WACC0.56
Cap/Depr(3y)56.28%
Cap/Depr(5y)46.96%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.7%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.52%
Profit Quality(3y)255.28%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-24.11%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y5.38%
EPS Q2Q%50%
EPS Next Y-19.15%
EPS Next 2Y-1.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.21%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.39%
Revenue growth 3Y17.88%
Revenue growth 5Y9.76%
Sales Q2Q%10.03%
Revenue Next Year4.45%
Revenue Next 2Y4.74%
Revenue Next 3Y4.28%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-14.86%
EBIT growth 3Y161.04%
EBIT growth 5Y13.4%
EBIT Next Year26.94%
EBIT Next 3Y14.72%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-80.62%
FCF growth 3Y-23.83%
FCF growth 5Y14.87%
OCF growth 1Y-55.24%
OCF growth 3Y-8.11%
OCF growth 5Y19.05%