MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLD (VAC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:VAC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US57164Y1073 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to VAC. VAC was compared to 136 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. VAC has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. VAC has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing. Finally VAC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VAC was profitable.
VAC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
VAC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years VAC had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
VAC has a Return On Assets of 2.22%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VAC outperforms 54.41% of its industry peers.
VAC's Return On Equity of 8.93% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VAC outperforms 68.38% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 4.14%, VAC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 44.85% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for VAC is significantly below the industry average of 15.70%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.22% | ||
| ROE | 8.93% | ||
| ROIC | 4.14% |
ROA(3y)2.97%
ROA(5y)1.26%
ROE(3y)11.75%
ROE(5y)5.31%
ROIC(3y)4.94%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 4.39%, VAC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.82% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VAC has grown nicely.
With a Operating Margin value of 11.01%, VAC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.09% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VAC has declined.
VAC has a Gross Margin of 49.33%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VAC outperforms 58.09% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VAC has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.01% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.39% | ||
| GM | 49.33% |
OM growth 3Y-2.56%
OM growth 5Y-3.62%
PM growth 3Y51.6%
PM growth 5Y6.26%
GM growth 3Y0.28%
GM growth 5Y-0.59%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
VAC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VAC has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, VAC has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for VAC is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.01, we must say that VAC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
VAC's Altman-Z score of 1.01 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. VAC is outperformed by 65.44% of its industry peers.
VAC has a debt to FCF ratio of 53.32. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VAC would need 53.32 years to pay back of all of its debts.
VAC's Debt to FCF ratio of 53.32 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. VAC is outperformed by 61.76% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.14 is on the high side and indicates that VAC has dependencies on debt financing.
VAC's Debt to Equity ratio of 2.14 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VAC outperforms 55.88% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.14 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 53.32 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.01 |
ROIC/WACC0.62
WACC6.63%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.37 indicates that VAC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.37, VAC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.38% of the companies in the same industry.
VAC has a Quick Ratio of 1.37. This is a bad value and indicates that VAC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VAC has a Quick ratio of 0.60. This is in the lower half of the industry: VAC underperforms 63.97% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.6 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for VAC have decreased strongly by -16.01% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -3.50% on average over the past years.
VAC shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 5.08%.
VAC shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 3.12% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.01%
EPS 3Y14.76%
EPS 5Y-3.5%
EPS Q2Q%-1.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.08%
Revenue growth 3Y8.49%
Revenue growth 5Y3.12%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, VAC will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 4.35% on average per year.
VAC is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.41% yearly.
EPS Next Y2.81%
EPS Next 2Y8.64%
EPS Next 3Y4.35%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.17%
Revenue Next 2Y4.28%
Revenue Next 3Y3.41%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 8.49 indicates a reasonable valuation of VAC.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VAC is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.59% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.79, VAC is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.25, the valuation of VAC can be described as reasonable.
91.18% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VAC, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
VAC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.25 |
4.2 Price Multiples
VAC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VAC is cheaper than 63.24% of the companies in the same industry.
VAC's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VAC is cheaper than 72.06% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.03 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)3.02
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y8.64%
EPS Next 3Y4.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.67%, VAC is a good candidate for dividend investing.
In the last 3 months the price of VAC has falen by -35.83%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.87, VAC pays a better dividend. On top of this VAC pays more dividend than 93.38% of the companies listed in the same industry.
VAC's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.47.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.67% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of VAC grows each year by 10.51%, which is quite nice.
VAC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
VAC has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.51%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
VAC pays out 49.08% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
VAC's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP49.08%
EPS Next 2Y8.64%
EPS Next 3Y4.35%
55.67
-0.11 (-0.2%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners85.93%
Inst Owner Change0.13%
Ins Owners1.48%
Ins Owner Change5.15%
Market Cap1.92B
Analysts70.67
Price Target91.09 (63.62%)
Short Float %4.76%
Short Ratio2.3
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.67% |
Yearly Dividend3.05
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.51%
DP49.08%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.3%
Min EPS beat(2)13.43%
Max EPS beat(2)21.17%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.32%
Min EPS beat(4)-45.35%
Max EPS beat(4)21.17%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-4.45%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)1.23%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)-3.03%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.89%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.82%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.81%
Min Revenue beat(4)-32.21%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.82%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.06%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.02%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.85%
PT rev (1m)-12.28%
PT rev (3m)-17.14%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.86%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.81%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.68%
EPS NY rev (3m)-11.87%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.56%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.14%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.25 | ||
| P/S | 0.39 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.63 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.39 | ||
| P/B | 0.79 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.03 |
EPS(TTM)6.56
EY11.78%
EPS(NY)6.74
Fwd EY12.12%
FCF(TTM)2.84
FCFY5.09%
OCF(TTM)5.93
OCFY10.66%
SpS143.72
BVpS70.66
TBVpS-42.39
PEG (NY)3.02
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.22% | ||
| ROE | 8.93% | ||
| ROCE | 6.17% | ||
| ROIC | 4.14% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.24% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.92% | ||
| OM | 11.01% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.39% | ||
| GM | 49.33% | ||
| FCFM | 1.97% |
ROA(3y)2.97%
ROA(5y)1.26%
ROE(3y)11.75%
ROE(5y)5.31%
ROIC(3y)4.94%
ROIC(5y)3.74%
ROICexc(3y)5.14%
ROICexc(5y)3.89%
ROICexgc(3y)10.87%
ROICexgc(5y)8.31%
ROCE(3y)7.36%
ROCE(5y)5.57%
ROICexcg growth 3Y2.01%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.23%
ROICexc growth 3Y4.21%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.5%
OM growth 3Y-2.56%
OM growth 5Y-3.62%
PM growth 3Y51.6%
PM growth 5Y6.26%
GM growth 3Y0.28%
GM growth 5Y-0.59%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.51
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.14 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 53.32 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.54 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 73.29% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.15% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.21 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 29.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 44.95% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.6 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.01 |
F-Score4
WACC6.63%
ROIC/WACC0.62
Cap/Depr(3y)69.98%
Cap/Depr(5y)55.09%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.02%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.74%
Profit Quality(3y)68.91%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.01%
EPS 3Y14.76%
EPS 5Y-3.5%
EPS Q2Q%-1.06%
EPS Next Y2.81%
EPS Next 2Y8.64%
EPS Next 3Y4.35%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.08%
Revenue growth 3Y8.49%
Revenue growth 5Y3.12%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
Revenue Next Year5.17%
Revenue Next 2Y4.28%
Revenue Next 3Y3.41%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-6.81%
EBIT growth 3Y5.71%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.61%
EBIT Next Year45.3%
EBIT Next 3Y16.15%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-14.04%
FCF growth 3Y-30.82%
FCF growth 5Y-21.84%
OCF growth 1Y-11.64%
OCF growth 3Y-15.77%
OCF growth 5Y-11.7%