UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:UPS - US9113121068 - Common Stock
101.02 USD
+1.83 (+1.84%)
100.92 USD
-0.1 (-0.1%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to UPS. UPS was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While UPS has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. UPS has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. Finally UPS also has an excellent dividend rating. These ratings could make UPS a good candidate for dividend investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
UPS had positive earnings in the past year.
UPS had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years UPS has been profitable.
UPS had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
UPS has a Return On Assets of 7.71%. This is amongst the best in the industry. UPS outperforms 82.61% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 34.77%, UPS belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS has a Return On Invested Capital of 11.40%. This is amongst the best in the industry. UPS outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for UPS is above the industry average of 12.36%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.71% | ||
| ROE | 34.77% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of UPS (6.15%) is better than 91.30% of its industry peers.
UPS's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
UPS has a better Operating Margin (9.29%) than 91.30% of its industry peers.
UPS's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
UPS's Gross Margin of 82.44% is amongst the best of the industry. UPS outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
UPS's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.15% | ||
| GM | 82.44% |
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so UPS is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for UPS remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for UPS has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for UPS has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.01 indicates that UPS is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of UPS (3.01) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
UPS has a debt to FCF ratio of 5.64. This is a neutral value as UPS would need 5.64 years to pay back of all of its debts.
UPS's Debt to FCF ratio of 5.64 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. UPS outperforms 73.91% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.51 is on the high side and indicates that UPS has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.51, UPS is not doing good in the industry: 78.26% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.01 |
ROIC/WACC1.49
WACC7.65%
2.3 Liquidity
UPS has a Current Ratio of 1.30. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
UPS has a Current ratio of 1.30. This is in the lower half of the industry: UPS underperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.30 indicates that UPS should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
UPS has a Quick ratio of 1.30. This is in the lower half of the industry: UPS underperforms 65.22% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.3 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
UPS shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 1.07%.
Measured over the past 5 years, UPS shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 0.53% on average per year.
The Revenue has decreased by -1.33% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, UPS shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.21% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.33%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
3.2 Future
UPS is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 4.95% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.05% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-9.62%
EPS Next 2Y-3.4%
EPS Next 3Y1.28%
EPS Next 5Y4.95%
Revenue Next Year-3.4%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.84%
Revenue Next 3Y0.02%
Revenue Next 5Y2.05%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 13.42, the valuation of UPS can be described as correct.
82.61% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than UPS, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
UPS is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.60, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.01, UPS is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, UPS is valued cheaper than 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.23, UPS is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.42 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.01 |
4.2 Price Multiples
73.91% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than UPS, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of UPS indicates a rather cheap valuation: UPS is cheaper than 86.96% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.51 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
UPS has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)25.52
EPS Next 2Y-3.4%
EPS Next 3Y1.28%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.52%, UPS is a good candidate for dividend investing.
UPS's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.17. UPS pays more dividend than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.00.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.52% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of UPS grows each year by 11.17%, which is quite nice.
UPS has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
UPS has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
5.3 Sustainability
UPS pays out 98.06% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
UPS's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP98.06%
EPS Next 2Y-3.4%
EPS Next 3Y1.28%
101.02
+1.83 (+1.84%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners66.65%
Inst Owner Change-4.52%
Ins Owners0.01%
Ins Owner Change0.98%
Market Cap85.70B
Revenue(TTM)89.48B
Net Income(TTM)5.50B
Analysts72.94
Price Target106.08 (5.01%)
Short Float %2.05%
Short Ratio2.16
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.52% |
Yearly Dividend6.33
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
DP98.06%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)15.5%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(2)32.65%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)11.35%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(4)32.65%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)6.38%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)4.37%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.94%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.72%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.78%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.6%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.78%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.68%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.65%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.17%
PT rev (1m)0.21%
PT rev (3m)-0.35%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.46%
EPS NQ rev (3m)4.27%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.5%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.21%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.07%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.45%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.55%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.42 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.01 | ||
| P/S | 0.96 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.5 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.13 | ||
| P/B | 5.42 | ||
| P/tB | 11.34 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.51 |
EPS(TTM)7.53
EY7.45%
EPS(NY)7.21
Fwd EY7.14%
FCF(TTM)5.18
FCFY5.13%
OCF(TTM)9.98
OCFY9.87%
SpS105.47
BVpS18.65
TBVpS8.91
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)25.52
Graham Number56.21
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.71% | ||
| ROE | 34.77% | ||
| ROCE | 14.62% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.94% | ||
| ROICexgc | 15.5% | ||
| OM | 9.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.15% | ||
| GM | 82.44% | ||
| FCFM | 4.91% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
ROICexc(3y)17.25%
ROICexc(5y)18.55%
ROICexgc(3y)20.55%
ROICexgc(5y)21.95%
ROCE(3y)19.3%
ROCE(5y)20.23%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-16.14%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-1.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.33%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.47%
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.99 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 110.13% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.55% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 70.5% | ||
| Profit Quality | 79.9% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.01 |
F-Score6
WACC7.65%
ROIC/WACC1.49
Cap/Depr(3y)137.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)150.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.08%
Profit Quality(3y)88.01%
Profit Quality(5y)144.74%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
EPS Next Y-9.62%
EPS Next 2Y-3.4%
EPS Next 3Y1.28%
EPS Next 5Y4.95%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.33%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
Revenue Next Year-3.4%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.84%
Revenue Next 3Y0.02%
Revenue Next 5Y2.05%
EBIT growth 1Y3.02%
EBIT growth 3Y-12.41%
EBIT growth 5Y1.92%
EBIT Next Year38.49%
EBIT Next 3Y15.23%
EBIT Next 5Y10.54%
FCF growth 1Y-20.92%
FCF growth 3Y-16.86%
FCF growth 5Y22.43%
OCF growth 1Y-24.16%
OCF growth 3Y-12.3%
OCF growth 5Y3.22%
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B / UPS FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for UPS stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to UPS.
What is the valuation status for UPS stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for UPS stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is 13.42 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 5.42.
What is the expected EPS growth for UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is expected to decline by -9.62% in the next year.