UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:UPS - US9113121068 - Common Stock
108.06 USD
+1.09 (+1.02%)
108.263 USD
+0.2 (+0.19%)
Overall UPS gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated UPS against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While UPS belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. UPS has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. Finally UPS also has an excellent dividend rating. These ratings would make UPS suitable for dividend investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year UPS was profitable.
UPS had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
UPS had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
UPS had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
UPS has a Return On Assets of 7.71%. This is amongst the best in the industry. UPS outperforms 82.61% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 34.77%, UPS belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of UPS (11.40%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for UPS is above the industry average of 12.36%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.71% | ||
| ROE | 34.77% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of UPS (6.15%) is better than 91.30% of its industry peers.
UPS's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
UPS has a Operating Margin of 9.29%. This is amongst the best in the industry. UPS outperforms 91.30% of its industry peers.
UPS's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
UPS has a Gross Margin of 82.44%. This is amongst the best in the industry. UPS outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of UPS has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.15% | ||
| GM | 82.44% |
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so UPS is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for UPS remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, UPS has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, UPS has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.09 indicates that UPS is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
UPS has a Altman-Z score (3.09) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
UPS has a debt to FCF ratio of 5.64. This is a neutral value as UPS would need 5.64 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of UPS (5.64) is better than 73.91% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.51 is on the high side and indicates that UPS has dependencies on debt financing.
UPS has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.51. This is in the lower half of the industry: UPS underperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.09 |
ROIC/WACC1.48
WACC7.71%
2.3 Liquidity
UPS has a Current Ratio of 1.30. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
UPS has a Current ratio of 1.30. This is in the lower half of the industry: UPS underperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
UPS has a Quick Ratio of 1.30. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
UPS has a worse Quick ratio (1.30) than 65.22% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.3 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 1.07% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 0.53% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, UPS shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -1.33% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.21% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.33%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
3.2 Future
UPS is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 4.95% yearly.
UPS is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.05% yearly.
EPS Next Y-9.62%
EPS Next 2Y-3.4%
EPS Next 3Y1.28%
EPS Next 5Y4.95%
Revenue Next Year-3.4%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.84%
Revenue Next 3Y0.02%
Revenue Next 5Y2.05%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
UPS is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.35.
UPS's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. UPS is cheaper than 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.19, UPS is valued a bit cheaper.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.98, the valuation of UPS can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, UPS is valued cheaper than 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.92, UPS is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.98 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, UPS is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 73.91% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of UPS indicates a rather cheap valuation: UPS is cheaper than 86.96% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.85 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
UPS has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)27.3
EPS Next 2Y-3.4%
EPS Next 3Y1.28%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
UPS has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.13%, which is a nice return.
UPS's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.14. UPS pays more dividend than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.92, UPS pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.13% |
5.2 History
The dividend of UPS is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.17%!
UPS has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
UPS has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
5.3 Sustainability
98.06% of the earnings are spent on dividend by UPS. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of UPS is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP98.06%
EPS Next 2Y-3.4%
EPS Next 3Y1.28%
108.06
+1.09 (+1.02%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners66.77%
Inst Owner Change0.16%
Ins Owners0.01%
Ins Owner Change0.98%
Market Cap91.68B
Revenue(TTM)89.48B
Net Income(TTM)5.50B
Analysts72.94
Price Target106.08 (-1.83%)
Short Float %2.05%
Short Ratio2.16
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.13% |
Yearly Dividend6.33
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
DP98.06%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)15.5%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(2)32.65%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)11.35%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(4)32.65%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)6.38%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)4.37%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.94%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.72%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.78%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.6%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.78%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.68%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.65%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.17%
PT rev (1m)0.21%
PT rev (3m)1.07%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.46%
EPS NQ rev (3m)4.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.13%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.21%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.07%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.22%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.57%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.98 | ||
| P/S | 1.02 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.85 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.83 | ||
| P/B | 5.79 | ||
| P/tB | 12.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.14 |
EPS(TTM)7.53
EY6.97%
EPS(NY)7.21
Fwd EY6.67%
FCF(TTM)5.18
FCFY4.8%
OCF(TTM)9.98
OCFY9.23%
SpS105.47
BVpS18.65
TBVpS8.91
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)27.3
Graham Number56.21
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.71% | ||
| ROE | 34.77% | ||
| ROCE | 14.62% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.94% | ||
| ROICexgc | 15.5% | ||
| OM | 9.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.15% | ||
| GM | 82.44% | ||
| FCFM | 4.91% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
ROICexc(3y)17.25%
ROICexc(5y)18.55%
ROICexgc(3y)20.55%
ROICexgc(5y)21.95%
ROCE(3y)19.3%
ROCE(5y)20.23%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-16.14%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-1.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.33%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.47%
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.99 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 110.13% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.55% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 70.5% | ||
| Profit Quality | 79.9% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.09 |
F-Score6
WACC7.71%
ROIC/WACC1.48
Cap/Depr(3y)137.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)150.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.08%
Profit Quality(3y)88.01%
Profit Quality(5y)144.74%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
EPS Next Y-9.62%
EPS Next 2Y-3.4%
EPS Next 3Y1.28%
EPS Next 5Y4.95%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.33%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
Revenue Next Year-3.4%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.84%
Revenue Next 3Y0.02%
Revenue Next 5Y2.05%
EBIT growth 1Y3.02%
EBIT growth 3Y-12.41%
EBIT growth 5Y1.92%
EBIT Next Year38.49%
EBIT Next 3Y15.23%
EBIT Next 5Y10.54%
FCF growth 1Y-20.92%
FCF growth 3Y-16.86%
FCF growth 5Y22.43%
OCF growth 1Y-24.16%
OCF growth 3Y-12.3%
OCF growth 5Y3.22%
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B / UPS FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for UPS stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to UPS.
What is the valuation status for UPS stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for UPS stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is 14.35 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 5.79.
What is the expected EPS growth for UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is expected to decline by -9.62% in the next year.