UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:UPS - US9113121068 - Common Stock
85.64 USD
+1.55 (+1.84%)
85.22 USD
-0.42 (-0.49%)
UPS gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. UPS scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. UPS has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively. Finally UPS also has an excellent dividend rating. These ratings would make UPS suitable for dividend investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year UPS was profitable.
UPS had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years UPS has been profitable.
In the past 5 years UPS always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of UPS (8.08%) is better than 82.61% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of UPS (36.38%) is better than 95.65% of its industry peers.
UPS has a Return On Invested Capital of 11.69%. This is amongst the best in the industry. UPS outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for UPS is above the industry average of 11.80%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.08% | ||
| ROE | 36.38% | ||
| ROIC | 11.69% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 6.34%, UPS belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of UPS has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 9.41%, UPS belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
UPS has a better Gross Margin (81.60%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
UPS's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.34% | ||
| GM | 81.6% |
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
UPS has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for UPS remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for UPS has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, UPS has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
UPS has an Altman-Z score of 2.91. This is not the best score and indicates that UPS is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
UPS has a better Altman-Z score (2.91) than 60.87% of its industry peers.
UPS has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.97. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as UPS would need 6.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
UPS's Debt to FCF ratio of 6.97 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. UPS outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
UPS has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.51. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
UPS's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.51 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. UPS is outperformed by 73.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.91 |
ROIC/WACC1.58
WACC7.39%
2.3 Liquidity
UPS has a Current Ratio of 1.32. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
UPS has a Current ratio of 1.32. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: UPS outperforms 43.48% of its industry peers.
UPS has a Quick Ratio of 1.32. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
UPS has a Quick ratio (1.32) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
UPS shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 3.99%.
UPS shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 0.53% yearly.
Looking at the last year, UPS shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 0.91% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.21% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)3.99%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-13.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.91%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-2.74%
3.2 Future
UPS is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 6.41% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.25% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-14.91%
EPS Next 2Y-2.71%
EPS Next 3Y1.57%
EPS Next 5Y6.41%
Revenue Next Year-3.95%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.85%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.04%
Revenue Next 5Y2.25%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
UPS is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 11.34.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, UPS is valued cheaper than 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.31. UPS is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.70, the valuation of UPS can be described as very reasonable.
UPS's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. UPS is cheaper than 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.85, UPS is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.34 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.7 |
4.2 Price Multiples
UPS's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. UPS is cheaper than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, UPS is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 78.26% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.45 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.37 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
UPS has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)21.58
EPS Next 2Y-2.71%
EPS Next 3Y1.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 7.69%, UPS is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.76, UPS pays a better dividend. On top of this UPS pays more dividend than 95.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
UPS's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.69% |
5.2 History
The dividend of UPS is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.17%!
UPS has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
UPS has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
5.3 Sustainability
94.15% of the earnings are spent on dividend by UPS. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of UPS is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP94.15%
EPS Next 2Y-2.71%
EPS Next 3Y1.57%
85.64
+1.55 (+1.84%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.63%
Inst Owner Change-0.27%
Ins Owners0.01%
Ins Owner Change0.98%
Market Cap72.59B
Analysts72.22
Price Target104.96 (22.56%)
Short Float %2.9%
Short Ratio2.42
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.69% |
Yearly Dividend6.33
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
DP94.15%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)2.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(2)6.85%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)4.98%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(4)7.57%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.56%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.99%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)3.24%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.04%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.72%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.36%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.36%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.25%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.93%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.17%
PT rev (1m)-2.27%
PT rev (3m)-9.88%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.48%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-15.27%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.21%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.67%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.02%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.04%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.46%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.34 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.7 | ||
| P/S | 0.8 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.45 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.69 | ||
| P/B | 4.61 | ||
| P/tB | 9.57 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.37 |
EPS(TTM)7.55
EY8.82%
EPS(NY)7.32
Fwd EY8.54%
FCF(TTM)4.19
FCFY4.89%
OCF(TTM)8.84
OCFY10.32%
SpS106.56
BVpS18.58
TBVpS8.95
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)21.58
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.08% | ||
| ROE | 36.38% | ||
| ROCE | 14.99% | ||
| ROIC | 11.69% | ||
| ROICexc | 13.15% | ||
| ROICexgc | 15.69% | ||
| OM | 9.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.34% | ||
| GM | 81.6% | ||
| FCFM | 3.93% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
ROICexc(3y)17.25%
ROICexc(5y)18.55%
ROICexgc(3y)20.55%
ROICexgc(5y)21.95%
ROCE(3y)19.3%
ROCE(5y)20.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-16.14%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.33%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.47%
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.96 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 107.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.36% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 61.54% | ||
| Profit Quality | 61.94% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.91 |
F-Score7
WACC7.39%
ROIC/WACC1.58
Cap/Depr(3y)137.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)150.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.08%
Profit Quality(3y)88.01%
Profit Quality(5y)144.74%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)3.99%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-13.41%
EPS Next Y-14.91%
EPS Next 2Y-2.71%
EPS Next 3Y1.57%
EPS Next 5Y6.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.91%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-2.74%
Revenue Next Year-3.95%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.85%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.04%
Revenue Next 5Y2.25%
EBIT growth 1Y14.45%
EBIT growth 3Y-12.41%
EBIT growth 5Y1.92%
EBIT Next Year31.84%
EBIT Next 3Y15.35%
EBIT Next 5Y11.14%
FCF growth 1Y-42.79%
FCF growth 3Y-16.86%
FCF growth 5Y22.43%
OCF growth 1Y-34.34%
OCF growth 3Y-12.3%
OCF growth 5Y3.22%