TWILIO INC - A (TWLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:TWLO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US90138F1021 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to TWLO. TWLO was compared to 82 industry peers in the IT Services industry. No worries on liquidiy or solvency for TWLO as it has an excellent financial health rating, but there are worries on the profitability. TWLO shows excellent growth, but is valued quite expensive already.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year TWLO was profitable.
TWLO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
TWLO had negative earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In multiple years TWLO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
TWLO has a Return On Assets (-0.35%) which is in line with its industry peers.
TWLO's Return On Equity of -0.43% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. TWLO outperforms 47.56% of its industry peers.
TWLO's Return On Invested Capital of 0.14% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. TWLO outperforms 40.24% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.35% | ||
| ROE | -0.43% | ||
| ROIC | 0.14% |
ROA(3y)-6.62%
ROA(5y)-6.47%
ROE(3y)-7.9%
ROE(5y)-7.62%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
TWLO has a Operating Margin of 0.35%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: TWLO outperforms 40.24% of its industry peers.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 50.52%, TWLO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.95% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of TWLO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 0.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 50.52% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.98%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
TWLO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
TWLO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for TWLO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
TWLO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 6.12 indicates that TWLO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
TWLO's Altman-Z score of 6.12 is amongst the best of the industry. TWLO outperforms 81.71% of its industry peers.
TWLO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.51. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.51 years to pay back of all of its debts.
TWLO's Debt to FCF ratio of 1.51 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. TWLO outperforms 75.61% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.12 indicates that TWLO is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of TWLO (0.12) is better than 70.73% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 6.12 |
ROIC/WACC0.02
WACC9.31%
2.3 Liquidity
TWLO has a Current Ratio of 4.78. This indicates that TWLO is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
TWLO has a better Current ratio (4.78) than 90.24% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 4.78 indicates that TWLO has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of TWLO (4.78) is better than 90.24% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 4.78 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 4.78 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 44.96% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 89.75% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, TWLO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 9.27% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 31.48% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)44.96%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y89.75%
EPS Q2Q%42.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.27%
Revenue growth 3Y16.19%
Revenue growth 5Y31.48%
Sales Q2Q%11.98%
3.2 Future
TWLO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 14.63% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.79% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y26.3%
EPS Next 2Y20.57%
EPS Next 3Y19.07%
EPS Next 5Y14.63%
Revenue Next Year8.96%
Revenue Next 2Y8.38%
Revenue Next 3Y8.34%
Revenue Next 5Y7.79%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 32.51, which means the current valuation is very expensive for TWLO.
TWLO's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.50. TWLO is around the same levels.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 24.42, the valuation of TWLO can be described as rather expensive.
TWLO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of TWLO to the average of the S&P500 Index (36.44), we can say TWLO is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 24.42 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, TWLO is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 65.85% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
TWLO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 30.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 72.61 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
TWLO's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
TWLO's earnings are expected to grow with 19.07% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.24
PEG (5Y)0.36
EPS Next 2Y20.57%
EPS Next 3Y19.07%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for TWLO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
131
+4.59 (+3.63%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorInformation Technology
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustryIT Services
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.64%
Inst Owner Change0.01%
Ins Owners0.13%
Ins Owner Change1.08%
Market Cap20.00B
Analysts77.14
Price Target128.72 (-1.74%)
Short Float %3.44%
Short Ratio2.04
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.56%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.36%
Max EPS beat(2)18.47%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)13.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.36%
Max EPS beat(4)22.19%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)33.11%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)66.99%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)65.07%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.01%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.9%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.01%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.67%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.02%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.55%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.86%
PT rev (1m)0.27%
PT rev (3m)-11.09%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.18%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.13%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.55%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.84%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.34%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.47%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 24.42 | ||
| P/S | 4.36 | ||
| P/FCF | 30.37 | ||
| P/OCF | 27.89 | ||
| P/B | 2.5 | ||
| P/tB | 7.84 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 72.61 |
EPS(TTM)4.03
EY3.08%
EPS(NY)5.36
Fwd EY4.1%
FCF(TTM)4.31
FCFY3.29%
OCF(TTM)4.7
OCFY3.59%
SpS30.02
BVpS52.43
TBVpS16.7
PEG (NY)1.24
PEG (5Y)0.36
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.35% | ||
| ROE | -0.43% | ||
| ROCE | 0.18% | ||
| ROIC | 0.14% | ||
| ROICexc | 0.19% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.08% | ||
| OM | 0.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 50.52% | ||
| FCFM | 14.37% |
ROA(3y)-6.62%
ROA(5y)-6.47%
ROE(3y)-7.9%
ROE(5y)-7.62%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.98%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.54 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 29.02% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.28% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 328.32% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 4.78 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 4.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 6.12 |
F-Score6
WACC9.31%
ROIC/WACC0.02
Cap/Depr(3y)25.09%
Cap/Depr(5y)29.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.55%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.23%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)44.96%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y89.75%
EPS Q2Q%42.5%
EPS Next Y26.3%
EPS Next 2Y20.57%
EPS Next 3Y19.07%
EPS Next 5Y14.63%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.27%
Revenue growth 3Y16.19%
Revenue growth 5Y31.48%
Sales Q2Q%11.98%
Revenue Next Year8.96%
Revenue Next 2Y8.38%
Revenue Next 3Y8.34%
Revenue Next 5Y7.79%
EBIT growth 1Y105.34%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year39.77%
EBIT Next 3Y23.41%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y258.94%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y314.27%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y119.52%