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TWILIO INC - A (TWLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:TWLO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US90138F1021 - Common Stock

113.88  +1.94 (+1.73%)

After market: 114 +0.12 (+0.11%)

Fundamental Rating

4

TWLO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 82 industry peers in the IT Services industry. TWLO has a great financial health rating, but its profitability evaluates not so good. TWLO has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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2

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

TWLO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year TWLO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years TWLO always reported negative net income.
In multiple years TWLO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
TWLO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFTWLO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 -500M -1B

1.2 Ratios

Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -4.61%, TWLO is doing worse than 60.76% of the companies in the same industry.
TWLO has a Return On Equity (-5.62%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -4.61%
ROE -5.62%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)-8.68%
ROA(5y)-7.44%
ROE(3y)-10.31%
ROE(5y)-8.79%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
TWLO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICTWLO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 -10 -20 -30

1.3 Margins

With a decent Gross Margin value of 50.92%, TWLO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 72.15% of the companies in the same industry.
TWLO's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Profit Margin and Operating Margin are not available for TWLO so they could not be analyzed.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 50.92%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.81%
GM growth 5Y-1.74%
TWLO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsTWLO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40

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7

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

TWLO does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for TWLO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for TWLO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, TWLO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
TWLO Yearly Shares OutstandingTWLO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50M 100M 150M
TWLO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsTWLO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 5.45 indicates that TWLO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 5.45, TWLO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.42% of the companies in the same industry.
TWLO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.28. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.28 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of TWLO (1.28) is better than 75.95% of its industry peers.
TWLO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.12. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.12, TWLO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.09% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.12
Debt/FCF 1.28
Altman-Z 5.45
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC11.56%
TWLO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFTWLO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 5.06 indicates that TWLO has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 5.06, TWLO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 93.67% of the companies in the same industry.
TWLO has a Quick Ratio of 5.06. This indicates that TWLO is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of TWLO (5.06) is better than 93.67% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 5.06
Quick Ratio 5.06
TWLO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesTWLO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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6

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 96.13% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, TWLO shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 89.60% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.76% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, TWLO shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 44.91% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)96.13%
EPS 3Y120.03%
EPS 5Y89.6%
EPS Q2Q%75.86%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.76%
Revenue growth 3Y33.1%
Revenue growth 5Y44.91%
Sales Q2Q%9.67%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, TWLO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 19.28% on average per year.
TWLO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.50% yearly.
EPS Next Y52.62%
EPS Next 2Y33.85%
EPS Next 3Y25%
EPS Next 5Y19.28%
Revenue Next Year7.38%
Revenue Next 2Y7.6%
Revenue Next 3Y7.64%
Revenue Next 5Y7.5%

3.3 Evolution

The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
TWLO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesTWLO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2B 4B 6B
TWLO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesTWLO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 0 2 4 6 8 10

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 32.08, the valuation of TWLO can be described as expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of TWLO is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.29. TWLO is around the same levels.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 25.94, which means the current valuation is very expensive for TWLO.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as TWLO.
TWLO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 24.44.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 32.08
Fwd PE 25.94
TWLO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsTWLO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of TWLO indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: TWLO is more expensive than 62.03% of the companies listed in the same industry.
72.15% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than TWLO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 22.54
EV/EBITDA 113.68
TWLO Per share dataTWLO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
TWLO's earnings are expected to grow with 25.00% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.61
PEG (5Y)0.36
EPS Next 2Y33.85%
EPS Next 3Y25%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

TWLO does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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TWILIO INC - A

NYSE:TWLO (1/21/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 114 +0.12 (+0.11%)

113.88

+1.94 (+1.73%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorInformation Technology
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustryIT Services
Earnings (Last)10-30 2024-10-30/amc
Earnings (Next)02-12 2025-02-12/amc
Inst Owners83.14%
Inst Owner Change-0.02%
Ins Owners0.11%
Ins Owner Change-4.05%
Market Cap17.47B
Analysts73.51
Price Target91.07 (-20.03%)
Short Float %2.1%
Short Ratio1.03
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)19.61%
Min EPS beat(2)17.03%
Max EPS beat(2)22.19%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)29.1%
Min EPS beat(4)17.03%
Max EPS beat(4)45.48%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)89.79%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)75.01%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)83.17%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.42%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.67%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.66%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.57%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.67%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.87%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.14%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.54%
PT rev (1m)6.07%
PT rev (3m)30.31%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)18.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)8.14%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.77%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.21%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 32.08
Fwd PE 25.94
P/S 4.03
P/FCF 22.54
P/OCF 21.04
P/B 2.12
P/tB 6.42
EV/EBITDA 113.68
EPS(TTM)3.55
EY3.12%
EPS(NY)4.39
Fwd EY3.85%
FCF(TTM)5.05
FCFY4.44%
OCF(TTM)5.41
OCFY4.75%
SpS28.29
BVpS53.65
TBVpS17.73
PEG (NY)0.61
PEG (5Y)0.36
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -4.61%
ROE -5.62%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 50.92%
FCFM 17.86%
ROA(3y)-8.68%
ROA(5y)-7.44%
ROE(3y)-10.31%
ROE(5y)-8.79%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.81%
GM growth 5Y-1.74%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.12
Debt/FCF 1.28
Debt/EBITDA 8.43
Cap/Depr 25.07%
Cap/Sales 1.28%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion 707.11%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 5.06
Quick Ratio 5.06
Altman-Z 5.45
F-Score6
WACC11.56%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)27.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)36.4%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.16%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)96.13%
EPS 3Y120.03%
EPS 5Y89.6%
EPS Q2Q%75.86%
EPS Next Y52.62%
EPS Next 2Y33.85%
EPS Next 3Y25%
EPS Next 5Y19.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.76%
Revenue growth 3Y33.1%
Revenue growth 5Y44.91%
Sales Q2Q%9.67%
Revenue Next Year7.38%
Revenue Next 2Y7.6%
Revenue Next 3Y7.64%
Revenue Next 5Y7.5%
EBIT growth 1Y81.22%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year77.17%
EBIT Next 3Y30.31%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y342.73%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y454.55%
OCF growth 3Y133.33%
OCF growth 5Y120.37%