TWILIO INC - A (TWLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:TWLO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US90138F1021 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, TWLO scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. TWLO was compared to 82 industry peers in the IT Services industry. TWLO has a great financial health rating, but its profitability evaluates not so good. TWLO shows excellent growth, but is valued quite expensive already.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year TWLO was profitable.
TWLO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
TWLO had negative earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In multiple years TWLO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
TWLO has a Return On Assets of -0.35%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: TWLO outperforms 43.90% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -0.43%, TWLO is in line with its industry, outperforming 47.56% of the companies in the same industry.
TWLO's Return On Invested Capital of 0.14% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. TWLO outperforms 40.24% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.35% | ||
| ROE | -0.43% | ||
| ROIC | 0.14% |
ROA(3y)-6.62%
ROA(5y)-6.47%
ROE(3y)-7.9%
ROE(5y)-7.62%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
TWLO's Operating Margin of 0.35% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. TWLO outperforms 40.24% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 50.52%, TWLO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 71.95% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of TWLO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 0.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 50.52% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.98%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), TWLO is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, TWLO has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for TWLO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, TWLO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
TWLO has an Altman-Z score of 5.87. This indicates that TWLO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of TWLO (5.87) is better than 78.05% of its industry peers.
TWLO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.51. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.51 years to pay back of all of its debts.
TWLO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 1.51. This is in the better half of the industry: TWLO outperforms 75.61% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.12 indicates that TWLO is not too dependend on debt financing.
TWLO has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.12. This is in the better half of the industry: TWLO outperforms 70.73% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 5.87 |
ROIC/WACC0.01
WACC9.51%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 4.78 indicates that TWLO has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 4.78, TWLO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.24% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 4.78 indicates that TWLO has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
TWLO has a better Quick ratio (4.78) than 90.24% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 4.78 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 4.78 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 44.96% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 89.75% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
TWLO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 9.27%.
Measured over the past years, TWLO shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 31.48% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)44.96%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y89.75%
EPS Q2Q%42.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.27%
Revenue growth 3Y16.19%
Revenue growth 5Y31.48%
Sales Q2Q%11.98%
3.2 Future
TWLO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 14.63% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.79% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y26.34%
EPS Next 2Y21.01%
EPS Next 3Y19.93%
EPS Next 5Y14.63%
Revenue Next Year8.94%
Revenue Next 2Y8.36%
Revenue Next 3Y8.41%
Revenue Next 5Y7.79%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 30.15, TWLO can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as TWLO.
TWLO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 27.29.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 22.48, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of TWLO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, TWLO is valued a bit cheaper than 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
TWLO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 21.74.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.48 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, TWLO is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 64.63% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as TWLO.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 28.17 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 69.17 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
TWLO's earnings are expected to grow with 19.93% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.14
PEG (5Y)0.34
EPS Next 2Y21.01%
EPS Next 3Y19.93%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
TWLO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
121.49
+1.22 (+1.01%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorInformation Technology
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustryIT Services
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.64%
Inst Owner Change0.01%
Ins Owners0.13%
Ins Owner Change1.95%
Market Cap18.55B
Analysts77.14
Price Target128.72 (5.95%)
Short Float %3.16%
Short Ratio1.84
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.56%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.36%
Max EPS beat(2)18.47%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)13.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.36%
Max EPS beat(4)22.19%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)33.11%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)66.99%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)65.07%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.01%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.9%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.01%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.67%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.02%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.55%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.86%
PT rev (1m)0.76%
PT rev (3m)-11.09%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.18%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.58%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.87%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.34%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.43%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.48 | ||
| P/S | 4.05 | ||
| P/FCF | 28.17 | ||
| P/OCF | 25.86 | ||
| P/B | 2.32 | ||
| P/tB | 7.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 69.17 |
EPS(TTM)4.03
EY3.32%
EPS(NY)5.4
Fwd EY4.45%
FCF(TTM)4.31
FCFY3.55%
OCF(TTM)4.7
OCFY3.87%
SpS30.02
BVpS52.43
TBVpS16.7
PEG (NY)1.14
PEG (5Y)0.34
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.35% | ||
| ROE | -0.43% | ||
| ROCE | 0.18% | ||
| ROIC | 0.14% | ||
| ROICexc | 0.19% | ||
| ROICexgc | 1.08% | ||
| OM | 0.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 50.52% | ||
| FCFM | 14.37% |
ROA(3y)-6.62%
ROA(5y)-6.47%
ROE(3y)-7.9%
ROE(5y)-7.62%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.45%
GM growth 5Y-0.98%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.54 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 29.02% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.28% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 328.32% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 4.78 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 4.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 5.87 |
F-Score6
WACC9.51%
ROIC/WACC0.01
Cap/Depr(3y)25.09%
Cap/Depr(5y)29.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.55%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.23%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)44.96%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y89.75%
EPS Q2Q%42.5%
EPS Next Y26.34%
EPS Next 2Y21.01%
EPS Next 3Y19.93%
EPS Next 5Y14.63%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.27%
Revenue growth 3Y16.19%
Revenue growth 5Y31.48%
Sales Q2Q%11.98%
Revenue Next Year8.94%
Revenue Next 2Y8.36%
Revenue Next 3Y8.41%
Revenue Next 5Y7.79%
EBIT growth 1Y105.34%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year39.77%
EBIT Next 3Y23.41%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y258.94%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y314.27%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y119.52%