TIMKEN CO (TKR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:TKR - US8873891043 - Common Stock
85.77 USD
-1.24 (-1.43%)
85.77 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to TKR. TKR was compared to 130 industry peers in the Machinery industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of TKR get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. TKR is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing. TKR also has an excellent dividend rating. These ratings could make TKR a good candidate for dividend investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year TKR was profitable.
TKR had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
TKR had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
TKR had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 4.37%, TKR perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.38% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 9.48%, TKR is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
TKR has a Return On Invested Capital (7.75%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for TKR is in line with the industry average of 10.32%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.37% | ||
| ROE | 9.48% | ||
| ROIC | 7.75% |
ROA(3y)6.19%
ROA(5y)6.27%
ROE(3y)15.23%
ROE(5y)15%
ROIC(3y)9.74%
ROIC(5y)9.38%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of TKR (6.54%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
TKR's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
TKR has a Operating Margin of 13.21%. This is in the better half of the industry: TKR outperforms 66.15% of its industry peers.
TKR's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 31.40%, TKR perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.31% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of TKR has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 13.21% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.54% | ||
| GM | 31.4% |
OM growth 3Y1.88%
OM growth 5Y-0.66%
PM growth 3Y-4.77%
PM growth 5Y-4.19%
GM growth 3Y5.7%
GM growth 5Y0.9%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
TKR has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for TKR remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
TKR has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
TKR has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
TKR has an Altman-Z score of 2.81. This is not the best score and indicates that TKR is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.81, TKR is in line with its industry, outperforming 48.46% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of TKR is 5.41, which is a neutral value as it means it would take TKR, 5.41 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 5.41, TKR perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.08% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.67 indicates that TKR is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of TKR (0.67) is worse than 65.38% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.67 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.81 |
ROIC/WACC0.84
WACC9.2%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 3.11 indicates that TKR has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
TKR has a Current ratio of 3.11. This is in the better half of the industry: TKR outperforms 77.69% of its industry peers.
TKR has a Quick Ratio of 1.71. This is a normal value and indicates that TKR is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
TKR's Quick ratio of 1.71 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. TKR outperforms 70.77% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.11 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.71 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for TKR have decreased strongly by -10.83% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.71% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, TKR shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -1.01% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.83% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.83%
EPS 3Y7.12%
EPS 5Y4.71%
EPS Q2Q%11.38%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.01%
Revenue growth 3Y3.43%
Revenue growth 5Y3.83%
Sales Q2Q%2.69%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, TKR will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 4.17% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.65% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-8.06%
EPS Next 2Y1.96%
EPS Next 3Y3.92%
EPS Next 5Y4.17%
Revenue Next Year-0.41%
Revenue Next 2Y1.41%
Revenue Next 3Y1.85%
Revenue Next 5Y1.65%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 16.03, TKR is valued correctly.
82.31% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than TKR, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
TKR is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.43, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.25 indicates a correct valuation of TKR.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of TKR indicates a rather cheap valuation: TKR is cheaper than 84.62% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.66. TKR is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.25 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of TKR indicates a rather cheap valuation: TKR is cheaper than 85.38% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of TKR indicates a rather cheap valuation: TKR is cheaper than 82.31% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.18 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.4
EPS Next 2Y1.96%
EPS Next 3Y3.92%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
TKR has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.58%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
TKR's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.00. TKR pays more dividend than 81.54% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.87, TKR has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.58% |
5.2 History
The dividend of TKR has a limited annual growth rate of 4.12%.
TKR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
TKR has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)4.12%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years15
5.3 Sustainability
TKR pays out 32.90% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of TKR is growing around the same rate as the earnings are growing. If this keeps up the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP32.9%
EPS Next 2Y1.96%
EPS Next 3Y3.92%
85.77
-1.24 (-1.43%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryMachinery
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.45%
Inst Owner Change8.02%
Ins Owners3.48%
Ins Owner Change-1.13%
Market Cap5.97B
Revenue(TTM)4.54B
Net Income(TTM)297.30M
Analysts71.76
Price Target89.35 (4.17%)
Short Float %3.94%
Short Ratio3.97
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.58% |
Yearly Dividend1.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)4.12%
DP32.9%
Div Incr Years11
Div Non Decr Years15
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)6.18%
Min EPS beat(2)3.22%
Max EPS beat(2)9.15%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)6.04%
Min EPS beat(4)-4.26%
Max EPS beat(4)16.07%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)5.02%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)4.35%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)6.95%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.78%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.16%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.4%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.82%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.32%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.4%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.85%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.12%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.25%
PT rev (1m)4.01%
PT rev (3m)4.56%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.92%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.57%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.39%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.13%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.64%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.26%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.72%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.03 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.25 | ||
| P/S | 1.31 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.3 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.87 | ||
| P/B | 1.91 | ||
| P/tB | 9.49 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.18 |
EPS(TTM)5.35
EY6.24%
EPS(NY)6.02
Fwd EY7.02%
FCF(TTM)5.6
FCFY6.53%
OCF(TTM)7.89
OCFY9.2%
SpS65.24
BVpS45
TBVpS9.04
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.4
Graham Number73.6
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.37% | ||
| ROE | 9.48% | ||
| ROCE | 10.14% | ||
| ROIC | 7.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 15.56% | ||
| OM | 13.21% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.54% | ||
| GM | 31.4% | ||
| FCFM | 8.59% |
ROA(3y)6.19%
ROA(5y)6.27%
ROE(3y)15.23%
ROE(5y)15%
ROIC(3y)9.74%
ROIC(5y)9.38%
ROICexc(3y)10.58%
ROICexc(5y)10.18%
ROICexgc(3y)19.94%
ROICexgc(5y)18.77%
ROCE(3y)12.82%
ROCE(5y)12.4%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-1.39%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-2.05%
ROICexc growth 3Y-3.49%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.51%
OM growth 3Y1.88%
OM growth 5Y-0.66%
PM growth 3Y-4.77%
PM growth 5Y-4.19%
GM growth 3Y5.7%
GM growth 5Y0.9%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.67
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.67 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.53 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 70.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.5% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 66.42% | ||
| Profit Quality | 131.32% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.11 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.81 |
F-Score6
WACC9.2%
ROIC/WACC0.84
Cap/Depr(3y)92.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)87.97%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.87%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.73%
Profit Quality(3y)82.47%
Profit Quality(5y)94.49%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.83%
EPS 3Y7.12%
EPS 5Y4.71%
EPS Q2Q%11.38%
EPS Next Y-8.06%
EPS Next 2Y1.96%
EPS Next 3Y3.92%
EPS Next 5Y4.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.01%
Revenue growth 3Y3.43%
Revenue growth 5Y3.83%
Sales Q2Q%2.69%
Revenue Next Year-0.41%
Revenue Next 2Y1.41%
Revenue Next 3Y1.85%
Revenue Next 5Y1.65%
EBIT growth 1Y-2.68%
EBIT growth 3Y5.37%
EBIT growth 5Y3.14%
EBIT Next Year24.25%
EBIT Next 3Y11.81%
EBIT Next 5Y9.62%
FCF growth 1Y-16.51%
FCF growth 3Y8.55%
FCF growth 5Y-5.68%
OCF growth 1Y-16.52%
OCF growth 3Y7.09%
OCF growth 5Y-2.86%
TIMKEN CO / TKR FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of TIMKEN CO (TKR) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to TKR.
What is the valuation status of TIMKEN CO (TKR) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to TIMKEN CO (TKR). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for TIMKEN CO?
TIMKEN CO (TKR) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is TIMKEN CO?
The financial health rating of TIMKEN CO (TKR) is 5 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for TIMKEN CO?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of TIMKEN CO (TKR) is expected to decline by -8.06% in the next year.