TARGET CORP (TGT) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:TGT • US87612E1064

115.75 USD
-3.03 (-2.55%)
At close: Mar 12, 2026
115.9 USD
+0.15 (+0.13%)
After Hours: 3/12/2026, 8:13:04 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Forecast Earnings Financials Ownership News

This TGT fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

Fundamental Rating

4

Overall TGT gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated TGT against 38 industry peers in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry. TGT has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. TGT is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

7

1. TGT Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • TGT had positive earnings in the past year.
  • TGT had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Each year in the past 5 years TGT has been profitable.
  • Each year in the past 5 years TGT had a positive operating cash flow.
TGT Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFTGT Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of TGT (6.27%) is better than 68.42% of its industry peers.
  • TGT has a Return On Equity of 24.28%. This is in the better half of the industry: TGT outperforms 76.32% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of TGT (12.98%) is better than 86.84% of its industry peers.
  • TGT had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 11.15%. This is significantly below the industry average of 28.44%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (12.98%) for TGT is above the 3 year average (11.15%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.27%
ROE 24.28%
ROIC 12.98%
ROA(3y)6.59%
ROA(5y)8.24%
ROE(3y)27.82%
ROE(5y)33.57%
ROIC(3y)11.15%
ROIC(5y)14.5%
TGT Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICTGT Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30 40 50

1.3 Margins

  • TGT has a better Profit Margin (3.58%) than 81.58% of its industry peers.
  • TGT's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • With an excellent Operating Margin value of 6.13%, TGT belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.84% of the companies in the same industry.
  • TGT's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • TGT has a Gross Margin of 27.74%. This is in the better half of the industry: TGT outperforms 65.79% of its industry peers.
  • TGT's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.13%
PM (TTM) 3.58%
GM 27.74%
OM growth 3Y-14.71%
OM growth 5Y-2.48%
PM growth 3Y-16.32%
PM growth 5Y-1.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y-1.06%
TGT Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsTGT Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

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ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

3

2. TGT Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • TGT has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for TGT has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, TGT has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 1 year ago, TGT has an improved debt to assets ratio.
TGT Yearly Shares OutstandingTGT Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M
TGT Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsTGT Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B 40B 50B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 3.03 indicates that TGT is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 3.03, TGT is not doing good in the industry: 65.79% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • TGT has a debt to FCF ratio of 5.48. This is a neutral value as TGT would need 5.48 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 5.48, TGT is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.26% of the companies in the same industry.
  • TGT has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.99. This is a neutral value indicating TGT is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • TGT has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.99. This is in the lower half of the industry: TGT underperforms 65.79% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.99
Debt/FCF 5.48
Altman-Z 3.03
ROIC/WACC1.74
WACC7.48%
TGT Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFTGT Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • TGT has a Current Ratio of 0.97. This is a bad value and indicates that TGT is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • TGT has a Current ratio of 0.97. This is in the lower half of the industry: TGT underperforms 68.42% of its industry peers.
  • TGT has a Quick Ratio of 0.97. This is a bad value and indicates that TGT is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of TGT (0.27) is worse than 78.95% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.97
Quick Ratio 0.27
TGT Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesTGT Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B 20B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

2

3. TGT Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • TGT shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -20.04%.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.72% on average over the past years.
  • Looking at the last year, TGT shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -2.16% in the last year.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.41% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.04%
EPS 3Y-13.2%
EPS 5Y6.72%
EPS Q2Q%-3.78%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.16%
Revenue growth 3Y0.18%
Revenue growth 5Y6.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.55%

3.2 Future

  • TGT is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.75% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, TGT will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.93% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-16.78%
EPS Next 2Y-6.47%
EPS Next 3Y-2.3%
EPS Next 5Y2.75%
Revenue Next Year-1.6%
Revenue Next 2Y0.06%
Revenue Next 3Y1.04%
Revenue Next 5Y1.93%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
TGT Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesTGT Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 20B 40B 60B 80B 100B
TGT Yearly EPS VS EstimatesTGT Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5 10 15

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5

4. TGT Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • TGT is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 15.35.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, TGT is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.05% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • TGT is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.71, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.93, TGT is valued correctly.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, TGT is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.79% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of TGT to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.82), we can say TGT is valued slightly cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.35
Fwd PE 14.93
TGT Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsTGT Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, TGT is valued a bit cheaper than 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, TGT is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 63.16% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 17.42
EV/EBITDA 6.96
TGT Per share dataTGT EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 50 100 150 200

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The decent profitability rating of TGT may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • TGT's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.30% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.28
EPS Next 2Y-6.47%
EPS Next 3Y-2.3%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

6

5. TGT Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • TGT has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.79%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.69, TGT pays a better dividend. On top of this TGT pays more dividend than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, TGT pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.79%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of TGT is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.38%!
  • TGT has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • TGT has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.38%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
TGT Yearly Dividends per shareTGT Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 2 3 4 5

5.3 Sustainability

  • TGT pays out 54.48% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
  • TGT's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP54.48%
EPS Next 2Y-6.47%
EPS Next 3Y-2.3%
TGT Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendTGT Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B 6B
TGT Dividend Payout.TGT Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.TGT Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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TGT Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

TARGET CORP

NYSE:TGT (3/12/2026, 8:13:04 PM)

After market: 115.9 +0.15 (+0.13%)

115.75

-3.03 (-2.55%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryConsumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Earnings (Last)11-19
Earnings (Next)05-19
Inst Owners86.02%
Inst Owner Change1.02%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.37%
Market Cap52.41B
Revenue(TTM)105.24B
Net Income(TTM)3.76B
Analysts67.27
Price Target106.86 (-7.68%)
Short Float %4.26%
Short Ratio2.87
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.79%
Yearly Dividend4.46
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.38%
DP54.48%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-Date02-11
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)0.86%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.83%
Max EPS beat(2)2.55%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-3.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.93%
Max EPS beat(4)5.26%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)0.39%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)10.14%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)1.78%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.18%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.11%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.14%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.72%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.11%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.01%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.88%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.78%
PT rev (1m)3.01%
PT rev (3m)6.01%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.85%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.73%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.24%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.06%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.22%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.04%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 15.35
Fwd PE 14.93
P/S 0.5
P/FCF 17.42
P/OCF 7.74
P/B 3.38
P/tB 3.38
EV/EBITDA 6.96
EPS(TTM)7.54
EY6.51%
EPS(NY)7.75
Fwd EY6.7%
FCF(TTM)6.65
FCFY5.74%
OCF(TTM)14.96
OCFY12.92%
SpS232.42
BVpS34.23
TBVpS34.23
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.28
Graham Number76.21
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.27%
ROE 24.28%
ROCE 16.66%
ROIC 12.98%
ROICexc 14.4%
ROICexgc 14.4%
OM 6.13%
PM (TTM) 3.58%
GM 27.74%
FCFM 2.86%
ROA(3y)6.59%
ROA(5y)8.24%
ROE(3y)27.82%
ROE(5y)33.57%
ROIC(3y)11.15%
ROIC(5y)14.5%
ROICexc(3y)12.58%
ROICexc(5y)21.31%
ROICexgc(3y)12.84%
ROICexgc(5y)22.01%
ROCE(3y)14.31%
ROCE(5y)18.61%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-26%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-2.41%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.72%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.23%
OM growth 3Y-14.71%
OM growth 5Y-2.48%
PM growth 3Y-16.32%
PM growth 5Y-1.78%
GM growth 3Y-1.24%
GM growth 5Y-1.06%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.75
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.99
Debt/FCF 5.48
Debt/EBITDA 1.61
Cap/Depr 121.57%
Cap/Sales 3.58%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 70.92%
Profit Quality 79.96%
Current Ratio 0.97
Quick Ratio 0.27
Altman-Z 3.03
F-Score5
WACC7.48%
ROIC/WACC1.74
Cap/Depr(3y)157.77%
Cap/Depr(5y)142.81%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.08%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.04%
EPS 3Y-13.2%
EPS 5Y6.72%
EPS Q2Q%-3.78%
EPS Next Y-16.78%
EPS Next 2Y-6.47%
EPS Next 3Y-2.3%
EPS Next 5Y2.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.16%
Revenue growth 3Y0.18%
Revenue growth 5Y6.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.55%
Revenue Next Year-1.6%
Revenue Next 2Y0.06%
Revenue Next 3Y1.04%
Revenue Next 5Y1.93%
EBIT growth 1Y7.49%
EBIT growth 3Y-14.56%
EBIT growth 5Y3.78%
EBIT Next Year41.33%
EBIT Next 3Y14.62%
EBIT Next 5Y11.37%
FCF growth 1Y-17.36%
FCF growth 3Y-4.14%
FCF growth 5Y1.82%
OCF growth 1Y-23.01%
OCF growth 3Y-5.12%
OCF growth 5Y0.69%

TARGET CORP / TGT FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of TARGET CORP (TGT) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to TGT.


What is the valuation status for TGT stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to TARGET CORP (TGT). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is TARGET CORP (TGT) stock?

TARGET CORP (TGT) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.


What is the earnings growth outlook for TARGET CORP?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of TARGET CORP (TGT) is expected to decline by -16.78% in the next year.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for TGT stock?

The dividend rating of TARGET CORP (TGT) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 54.48%.