TRIUMPH GROUP INC (TGI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:TGI - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US8968181011 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to TGI. TGI was compared to 65 industry peers in the Aerospace & Defense industry. While TGI is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. TGI has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year TGI was profitable.
TGI had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years TGI reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: TGI reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of TGI (2.51%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 11.13%, TGI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.77% of the companies in the same industry.
TGI had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.29%. This is in line with the industry average of 8.44%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.29%) for TGI is below the current ROIC(11.13%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.51% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 11.13% |
ROA(3y)12.71%
ROA(5y)3.46%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)8.29%
ROIC(5y)7.37%
1.3 Margins
TGI has a Profit Margin (3.24%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 12.56%, TGI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.46% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of TGI has grown nicely.
TGI has a better Gross Margin (31.55%) than 70.77% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of TGI has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.24% | ||
| GM | 31.55% |
OM growth 3Y14.98%
OM growth 5Y13.08%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y4.12%
GM growth 5Y9.07%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), TGI is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, TGI has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for TGI has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
TGI has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.60, we must say that TGI is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of TGI (1.60) is worse than 76.92% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of TGI is 51.66, which is on the high side as it means it would take TGI, 51.66 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
TGI has a Debt to FCF ratio (51.66) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 51.66 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
ROIC/WACC0.99
WACC11.2%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.22 indicates that TGI has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 2.22, TGI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.77% of the companies in the same industry.
TGI has a Quick Ratio of 1.32. This is a normal value and indicates that TGI is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of TGI (1.32) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.22 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 1383.33% over the past year.
TGI shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -18.53% yearly.
TGI shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -16.93%.
Measured over the past years, TGI shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -15.33% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)1383.33%
EPS 3Y4.05%
EPS 5Y-18.53%
EPS Q2Q%54.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.93%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.02%
Revenue growth 5Y-15.33%
Sales Q2Q%5.38%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 28.85% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue is expected to grow by 10.34% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y23.07%
EPS Next 2Y29.74%
EPS Next 3Y28.85%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year11.67%
Revenue Next 2Y9.26%
Revenue Next 3Y8.93%
Revenue Next 5Y10.34%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 29.06, TGI can be considered very expensive at the moment.
TGI's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. TGI is cheaper than 75.38% of the companies in the same industry.
TGI's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 27.29.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.61, TGI is valued on the expensive side.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, TGI is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 69.23% of the companies are valued more expensively.
TGI is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.74, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.61 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, TGI is valued cheaply inside the industry as 87.69% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as TGI.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 106.33 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.34 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as TGI's earnings are expected to grow with 28.85% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.26
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y29.74%
EPS Next 3Y28.85%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
TGI does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
25.86
+0.04 (+0.15%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryAerospace & Defense
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners101.98%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners2.14%
Ins Owner Change4.16%
Market Cap2.00B
Analysts70
Price Target21.81 (-15.66%)
Short Float %10.27%
Short Ratio5.71
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)37.56%
Min EPS beat(2)35.53%
Max EPS beat(2)39.6%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)783.17%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.77%
Max EPS beat(4)3068.32%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)380.69%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)529.14%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)402.98%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)8.81%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.92%
Max Revenue beat(2)10.7%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.31%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.55%
Max Revenue beat(4)10.7%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.74%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.32%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.05%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)3.02%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.79%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.46%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.22%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.66%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.61 | ||
| P/S | 1.59 | ||
| P/FCF | 106.33 | ||
| P/OCF | 52.85 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.34 |
EPS(TTM)0.89
EY3.44%
EPS(NY)1.1
Fwd EY4.24%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY0.94%
OCF(TTM)0.49
OCFY1.89%
SpS16.3
BVpS-0.99
TBVpS-8.33
PEG (NY)1.26
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.51% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 12.86% | ||
| ROIC | 11.13% | ||
| ROICexc | 14.36% | ||
| ROICexgc | 35.5% | ||
| OM | 12.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.24% | ||
| GM | 31.55% | ||
| FCFM | 1.49% |
ROA(3y)12.71%
ROA(5y)3.46%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)8.29%
ROIC(5y)7.37%
ROICexc(3y)10.84%
ROICexc(5y)9.74%
ROICexgc(3y)26.38%
ROICexgc(5y)24.28%
ROCE(3y)9.58%
ROCE(5y)8.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y7.93%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.96%
ROICexc growth 3Y13.48%
ROICexc growth 5Y4.89%
OM growth 3Y14.98%
OM growth 5Y13.08%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y4.12%
GM growth 5Y9.07%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.78
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 51.66 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.12 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 64.41% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.51% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.75 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 20.15% | ||
| Profit Quality | 46.07% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.22 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
F-Score5
WACC11.2%
ROIC/WACC0.99
Cap/Depr(3y)68.55%
Cap/Depr(5y)54.45%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.72%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)1383.33%
EPS 3Y4.05%
EPS 5Y-18.53%
EPS Q2Q%54.84%
EPS Next Y23.07%
EPS Next 2Y29.74%
EPS Next 3Y28.85%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-16.93%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.02%
Revenue growth 5Y-15.33%
Sales Q2Q%5.38%
Revenue Next Year11.67%
Revenue Next 2Y9.26%
Revenue Next 3Y8.93%
Revenue Next 5Y10.34%
EBIT growth 1Y16.86%
EBIT growth 3Y14.96%
EBIT growth 5Y-4.26%
EBIT Next Year56.27%
EBIT Next 3Y25.52%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y252.04%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-19.84%
OCF growth 1Y301.2%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y-17.09%