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Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:SRC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US84860W3007 - REIT - Currency: USD

42.31  -0.67 (-1.56%)

After market: 42.31 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

4

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to SRC. SRC was compared to 129 industry peers in the Diversified REITs industry. SRC has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. SRC is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year SRC was profitable.
SRC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years SRC has been profitable.
SRC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
SRC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFSRC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -500M -1B

1.2 Ratios

With a decent Return On Assets value of 2.87%, SRC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 74.40% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 5.52%, SRC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.00% of the companies in the same industry.
SRC has a better Return On Invested Capital (3.14%) than 63.20% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for SRC is in line with the industry average of 3.15%.
The 3 year average ROIC (2.96%) for SRC is below the current ROIC(3.14%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.87%
ROE 5.52%
ROIC 3.14%
ROA(3y)1.89%
ROA(5y)2.17%
ROE(3y)3.49%
ROE(5y)3.92%
ROIC(3y)2.96%
ROIC(5y)3.19%
SRC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICSRC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2 4 6

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 32.87%, SRC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 87.20% of the companies in the same industry.
SRC's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
SRC has a Operating Margin of 44.35%. This is amongst the best in the industry. SRC outperforms 88.80% of its industry peers.
SRC's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
SRC's Gross Margin of 95.85% is amongst the best of the industry. SRC outperforms 96.00% of its industry peers.
SRC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 44.35%
PM (TTM) 32.87%
GM 95.85%
OM growth 3Y-3.89%
OM growth 5Y2.83%
PM growth 3Y6.81%
PM growth 5Y17.76%
GM growth 3Y-0.21%
GM growth 5Y0.51%
SRC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsSRC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20 40 60 80

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1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), SRC is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for SRC has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The debt/assets ratio for SRC is higher compared to a year ago.
SRC Yearly Shares OutstandingSRC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50M 100M
SRC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsSRC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

SRC has an Altman-Z score of 0.58. This is a bad value and indicates that SRC is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
SRC's Altman-Z score of 0.58 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. SRC outperforms 49.60% of its industry peers.
SRC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.85. This is a neutral value indicating SRC is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of SRC (0.85) is better than 64.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.85
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.58
ROIC/WACC0.45
WACC6.93%
SRC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFSRC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 1B -1B 2B 3B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

SRC has a Current Ratio of 0.61. This is a bad value and indicates that SRC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.61, SRC is doing worse than 77.60% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.58 indicates that SRC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of SRC (0.58) is worse than 77.60% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.61
Quick Ratio 0.58
SRC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesSRC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50M 100M 150M 200M

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

SRC shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.41%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 20.59% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has grown by 10.57% in the past year. This is quite good.
SRC shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 10.47% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.41%
EPS 3Y1%
EPS 5Y20.59%
EPS Q2Q%-53.7%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.57%
Revenue growth 3Y11.18%
Revenue growth 5Y10.47%
Sales Q2Q%5.74%

3.2 Future

SRC is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -7.61% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, SRC will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.45% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-16.82%
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%
EPS Next 5Y-7.61%
Revenue Next Year7.73%
Revenue Next 2Y5.01%
Revenue Next 3Y4.5%
Revenue Next 5Y6.45%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
SRC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesSRC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
SRC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesSRC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0.5 1 1.5 2

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 24.18, the valuation of SRC can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, SRC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 70.40% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.29. SRC is around the same levels.
SRC is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 30.43.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, SRC is valued a bit cheaper than 76.00% of the companies in the same industry.
SRC is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.74, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.18
Fwd PE 30.43
SRC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsSRC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40 50

4.2 Price Multiples

SRC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 14.94
SRC Per share dataSRC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The excellent profitability rating of SRC may justify a higher PE ratio.
SRC's earnings are expected to decrease with -10.67% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.17
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%

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5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.33%, SRC is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.43, SRC pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.37, SRC pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.33%

5.2 History

The dividend of SRC decreases each year by -6.14%.
SRC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
SRC has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.14%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
SRC Yearly Dividends per shareSRC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

SRC pays out 154.84% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of SRC has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP154.84%
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%
SRC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendSRC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 200M -200M -400M -600M -800M -1B
SRC Dividend Payout.SRC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.SRC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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Spirit Realty Capital Inc

NYSE:SRC (1/22/2024, 8:08:28 PM)

After market: 42.31 0 (0%)

42.31

-0.67 (-1.56%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryDiversified REITs
Earnings (Last)11-02 2023-11-02/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-22 2024-02-22/amc
Inst Owners2.68%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.79%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap5.99B
Analysts70
Price Target44.35 (4.82%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.33%
Yearly Dividend2.67
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.14%
DP154.84%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-16.33%
Min EPS beat(2)-30.76%
Max EPS beat(2)-1.9%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)17.92%
Min EPS beat(4)-30.76%
Max EPS beat(4)80.68%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)22.01%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)11.62%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-18.12%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.87%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.54%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.27%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.27%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.74%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.33%
PT rev (1m)0.77%
PT rev (3m)4.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.08%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.1%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.7%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.18
Fwd PE 30.43
P/S 7.94
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 11.49
P/B 1.33
P/tB 1.54
EV/EBITDA 14.94
EPS(TTM)1.75
EY4.14%
EPS(NY)1.39
Fwd EY3.29%
FCF(TTM)-2.18
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)3.68
OCFY8.7%
SpS5.33
BVpS31.74
TBVpS27.4
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.17
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.87%
ROE 5.52%
ROCE 3.97%
ROIC 3.14%
ROICexc 3.19%
ROICexgc 3.45%
OM 44.35%
PM (TTM) 32.87%
GM 95.85%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.89%
ROA(5y)2.17%
ROE(3y)3.49%
ROE(5y)3.92%
ROIC(3y)2.96%
ROIC(5y)3.19%
ROICexc(3y)2.97%
ROICexc(5y)3.2%
ROICexgc(3y)3.26%
ROICexgc(5y)3.54%
ROCE(3y)3.75%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-6.63%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.42%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.64%
ROICexc growth 5Y10.32%
OM growth 3Y-3.89%
OM growth 5Y2.83%
PM growth 3Y6.81%
PM growth 5Y17.76%
GM growth 3Y-0.21%
GM growth 5Y0.51%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.85
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 5.9
Cap/Depr 264.97%
Cap/Sales 109.9%
Interest Coverage 2.36
Cash Conversion 80.48%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.61
Quick Ratio 0.58
Altman-Z 0.58
F-Score4
WACC6.93%
ROIC/WACC0.45
Cap/Depr(3y)482.02%
Cap/Depr(5y)473.62%
Cap/Sales(3y)200.85%
Cap/Sales(5y)186.47%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.41%
EPS 3Y1%
EPS 5Y20.59%
EPS Q2Q%-53.7%
EPS Next Y-16.82%
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%
EPS Next 5Y-7.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.57%
Revenue growth 3Y11.18%
Revenue growth 5Y10.47%
Sales Q2Q%5.74%
Revenue Next Year7.73%
Revenue Next 2Y5.01%
Revenue Next 3Y4.5%
Revenue Next 5Y6.45%
EBIT growth 1Y5.32%
EBIT growth 3Y6.86%
EBIT growth 5Y13.59%
EBIT Next Year104.37%
EBIT Next 3Y29.69%
EBIT Next 5Y24.14%
FCF growth 1Y60.06%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y35.99%
OCF growth 3Y12.79%
OCF growth 5Y4.31%