Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA • New York Stock Exchange • NYSE:SRC • US84860W3007

42.31 USD
-0.67 (-1.56%)
At close: Jan 22, 2024
42.31 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours: 1/22/2024, 8:08:28 PM
Fundamental Rating

4

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to SRC. SRC was compared to 124 industry peers in the Diversified REITs industry. SRC scores excellent on profitability, but there are concerns on its financial health. While showing a medium growth rate, SRC is valued expensive at the moment.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

7

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year SRC was profitable.
  • In the past year SRC had a positive cash flow from operations.
SRC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFSRC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 -500M -1B

1.2 Ratios

  • SRC's Return On Assets of 2.87% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. SRC outperforms 74.40% of its industry peers.
  • SRC has a Return On Equity of 5.52%. This is in the better half of the industry: SRC outperforms 76.00% of its industry peers.
  • SRC has a better Return On Invested Capital (3.14%) than 63.20% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for SRC is in line with the industry average of 3.05%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (3.14%) for SRC is above the 3 year average (2.96%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.87%
ROE 5.52%
ROIC 3.14%
ROA(3y)1.89%
ROA(5y)2.17%
ROE(3y)3.49%
ROE(5y)3.92%
ROIC(3y)2.96%
ROIC(5y)3.19%
SRC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICSRC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2 4 6

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of SRC (32.87%) is better than 87.20% of its industry peers.
  • SRC's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 44.35%, SRC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 88.80% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of SRC has grown nicely.
  • SRC has a better Gross Margin (95.85%) than 96.00% of its industry peers.
  • SRC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 44.35%
PM (TTM) 32.87%
GM 95.85%
OM growth 3Y-3.89%
OM growth 5Y2.83%
PM growth 3Y6.81%
PM growth 5Y17.76%
GM growth 3Y-0.21%
GM growth 5Y0.51%
SRC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsSRC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20 40 60 80

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ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

1

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), SRC is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, SRC has more shares outstanding
  • Compared to 1 year ago, SRC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
SRC Yearly Shares OutstandingSRC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50M 100M
SRC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsSRC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.58, we must say that SRC is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 0.58, SRC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 49.60% of the companies in the same industry.
  • SRC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.85. This is a neutral value indicating SRC is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of SRC (0.85) is better than 64.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.85
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.58
ROIC/WACC0.45
WACC6.93%
SRC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFSRC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 1B -1B 2B 3B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.61 indicates that SRC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of SRC (0.61) is worse than 77.60% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.58 indicates that SRC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of SRC (0.58) is worse than 77.60% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.61
Quick Ratio 0.58
SRC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesSRC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50M 100M 150M 200M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for SRC have decreased by -7.41% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, SRC shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 20.59% on average per year.
  • Looking at the last year, SRC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 10.57% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, SRC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.47% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.41%
EPS 3Y1%
EPS 5Y20.59%
EPS Q2Q%-53.7%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.57%
Revenue growth 3Y11.18%
Revenue growth 5Y10.47%
Sales Q2Q%5.74%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -7.61% on average over the next years.
  • SRC is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.45% yearly.
EPS Next Y-16.82%
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%
EPS Next 5Y-7.61%
Revenue Next Year7.73%
Revenue Next 2Y5.01%
Revenue Next 3Y4.5%
Revenue Next 5Y6.45%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
SRC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesSRC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
SRC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesSRC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0.5 1 1.5 2

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Find the best growth stocksShow best growing peers

2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 24.18, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of SRC.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, SRC is valued a bit cheaper than 70.40% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.67, SRC is valued at the same level.
  • SRC is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 30.43.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of SRC indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: SRC is cheaper than 76.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • SRC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 27.20.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.18
Fwd PE 30.43
SRC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsSRC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of SRC is on the same level as its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 14.94
SRC Per share dataSRC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The decent profitability rating of SRC may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A cheap valuation may be justified as SRC's earnings are expected to decrease with -10.67% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.17
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.33%, SRC is a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.98, SRC pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • SRC's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.33%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of SRC decreases each year by -6.14%.
  • SRC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • SRC has decreased its dividend recently.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.14%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
SRC Yearly Dividends per shareSRC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

  • SRC pays out 154.84% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
  • The Dividend Rate of SRC has been decling, while earnings will also be declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP154.84%
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%
SRC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendSRC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 200M -200M -400M -600M -800M -1B
SRC Dividend Payout.SRC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.SRC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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Spirit Realty Capital Inc

NYSE:SRC (1/22/2024, 8:08:28 PM)

After market: 42.31 0 (0%)

42.31

-0.67 (-1.56%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryDiversified REITs
Earnings (Last)11-02
Earnings (Next)02-22
Inst Owners2.68%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.79%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap5.99B
Revenue(TTM)754.40M
Net Income(TTM)248.00M
Analysts70
Price Target44.35 (4.82%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.33%
Yearly Dividend2.67
Dividend Growth(5Y)-6.14%
DP154.84%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years1
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-16.33%
Min EPS beat(2)-30.76%
Max EPS beat(2)-1.9%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)17.92%
Min EPS beat(4)-30.76%
Max EPS beat(4)80.68%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)22.01%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)11.62%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-18.12%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.87%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.54%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.27%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.43%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.27%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.74%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.33%
PT rev (1m)0.77%
PT rev (3m)4.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.08%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.1%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.7%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.18
Fwd PE 30.43
P/S 7.94
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 11.49
P/B 1.33
P/tB 1.54
EV/EBITDA 14.94
EPS(TTM)1.75
EY4.14%
EPS(NY)1.39
Fwd EY3.29%
FCF(TTM)-2.18
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)3.68
OCFY8.7%
SpS5.33
BVpS31.74
TBVpS27.4
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.17
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.87%
ROE 5.52%
ROCE 3.97%
ROIC 3.14%
ROICexc 3.19%
ROICexgc 3.45%
OM 44.35%
PM (TTM) 32.87%
GM 95.85%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)1.89%
ROA(5y)2.17%
ROE(3y)3.49%
ROE(5y)3.92%
ROIC(3y)2.96%
ROIC(5y)3.19%
ROICexc(3y)2.97%
ROICexc(5y)3.2%
ROICexgc(3y)3.26%
ROICexgc(5y)3.54%
ROCE(3y)3.75%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-6.63%
ROICexgc growth 5Y10.42%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.64%
ROICexc growth 5Y10.32%
OM growth 3Y-3.89%
OM growth 5Y2.83%
PM growth 3Y6.81%
PM growth 5Y17.76%
GM growth 3Y-0.21%
GM growth 5Y0.51%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.09
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.85
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 5.9
Cap/Depr 264.97%
Cap/Sales 109.9%
Interest Coverage 2.36
Cash Conversion 80.48%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.61
Quick Ratio 0.58
Altman-Z 0.58
F-Score4
WACC6.93%
ROIC/WACC0.45
Cap/Depr(3y)482.02%
Cap/Depr(5y)473.62%
Cap/Sales(3y)200.85%
Cap/Sales(5y)186.47%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.41%
EPS 3Y1%
EPS 5Y20.59%
EPS Q2Q%-53.7%
EPS Next Y-16.82%
EPS Next 2Y-17.44%
EPS Next 3Y-10.67%
EPS Next 5Y-7.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.57%
Revenue growth 3Y11.18%
Revenue growth 5Y10.47%
Sales Q2Q%5.74%
Revenue Next Year7.73%
Revenue Next 2Y5.01%
Revenue Next 3Y4.5%
Revenue Next 5Y6.45%
EBIT growth 1Y5.32%
EBIT growth 3Y6.86%
EBIT growth 5Y13.59%
EBIT Next Year104.37%
EBIT Next 3Y29.69%
EBIT Next 5Y24.14%
FCF growth 1Y60.06%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y35.99%
OCF growth 3Y12.79%
OCF growth 5Y4.31%

Spirit Realty Capital Inc / SRC FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for Spirit Realty Capital Inc?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to SRC.


What is the valuation status of Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 2 / 10 to Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC). This can be considered as Overvalued.


What is the profitability of SRC stock?

Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for SRC stock?

The financial health rating of Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) is 1 / 10.


What is the earnings growth outlook for Spirit Realty Capital Inc?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of Spirit Realty Capital Inc (SRC) is expected to decline by -16.82% in the next year.