PAPA JOHN'S INTL INC (PZZA) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:PZZA - Nasdaq - US6988131024 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to PZZA. PZZA was compared to 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While PZZA has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. PZZA has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively. PZZA also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
PZZA had positive earnings in the past year.
PZZA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
PZZA had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years PZZA had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 11.01%, PZZA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 87.02% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 21.68%, PZZA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.66% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for PZZA is significantly above the industry average of 10.79%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (21.68%) for PZZA is above the 3 year average (21.12%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 11.01% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 21.68% |
ROA(3y)5.88%
ROA(5y)4.28%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)21.12%
ROIC(5y)15.8%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 4.51%, PZZA is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.73% of the companies in the same industry.
PZZA's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of PZZA (7.49%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of PZZA has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 30.82%, PZZA is doing worse than 75.57% of the companies in the same industry.
PZZA's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 7.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.51% | ||
| GM | 30.82% |
OM growth 3Y13.66%
OM growth 5Y30.68%
PM growth 3Y18.68%
PM growth 5Y91.22%
GM growth 3Y0.81%
GM growth 5Y2.95%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), PZZA is creating value.
PZZA has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for PZZA has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
PZZA has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 4.08 indicates that PZZA is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 4.08, PZZA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 87.79% of the companies in the same industry.
PZZA has a debt to FCF ratio of 15.26. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as PZZA would need 15.26 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 15.26, PZZA perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.85% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 15.26 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.08 |
ROIC/WACC2.38
WACC9.12%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.80 indicates that PZZA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of PZZA (0.80) is worse than 60.31% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.66 indicates that PZZA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
PZZA's Quick ratio of 0.66 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. PZZA is outperformed by 61.83% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.8 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.66 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
PZZA shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 4.38%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 15.13% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.45% in the past year.
PZZA shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 5.13% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)4.38%
EPS 3Y18.22%
EPS 5Y15.13%
EPS Q2Q%-18.87%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.45%
Revenue growth 3Y5.61%
Revenue growth 5Y5.13%
Sales Q2Q%-3.06%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 13.02% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, PZZA will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.97% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-16.98%
EPS Next 2Y-4.32%
EPS Next 3Y0.23%
EPS Next 5Y13.02%
Revenue Next Year-4.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.27%
Revenue Next 3Y0.49%
Revenue Next 5Y3.97%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 18.21, PZZA is valued on the expensive side.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, PZZA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.57% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of PZZA to the average of the S&P500 Index (29.63), we can say PZZA is valued slightly cheaper.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 19.23, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of PZZA.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, PZZA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.41% of the companies are valued more expensively.
PZZA's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 22.68.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.23 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of PZZA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: PZZA is cheaper than 69.47% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, PZZA is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 31.54 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of PZZA may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.2
EPS Next 2Y-4.32%
EPS Next 3Y0.23%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
PZZA has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.80%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.08, PZZA pays a better dividend. On top of this PZZA pays more dividend than 90.84% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.27, PZZA pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of PZZA grows each year by 14.39%, which is quite nice.
PZZA has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PZZA has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)14.39%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years11
5.3 Sustainability
63.55% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PZZA. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of PZZA is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP63.55%
EPS Next 2Y-4.32%
EPS Next 3Y0.23%
47.72
-0.74 (-1.53%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners129.84%
Inst Owner Change-90.4%
Ins Owners1.29%
Ins Owner Change0.13%
Market Cap1.56B
Analysts76.67
Price Target57.79 (21.1%)
Short Float %11.67%
Short Ratio2.34
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.8% |
Yearly Dividend1.74
Dividend Growth(5Y)14.39%
DP63.55%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years11
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)5.16%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.65%
Max EPS beat(2)11.97%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)12.27%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.65%
Max EPS beat(4)23.27%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)5.06%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)2.16%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)6.72%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.21%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.34%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.08%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.75%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.08%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.53%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-3.05%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.78%
PT rev (1m)-6.15%
PT rev (3m)-3.45%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.7%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.56%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.35%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.24%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.17%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.24%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.23 | ||
| P/S | 0.74 | ||
| P/FCF | 31.54 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.76 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1 |
EPS(TTM)2.62
EY5.49%
EPS(NY)2.48
Fwd EY5.2%
FCF(TTM)1.51
FCFY3.17%
OCF(TTM)3.74
OCFY7.84%
SpS64.34
BVpS-13.2
TBVpS-15.55
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.2
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 11.01% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 26.66% | ||
| ROIC | 21.68% | ||
| ROICexc | 22.35% | ||
| ROICexgc | 25.79% | ||
| OM | 7.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.51% | ||
| GM | 30.82% | ||
| FCFM | 2.35% |
ROA(3y)5.88%
ROA(5y)4.28%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)21.12%
ROIC(5y)15.8%
ROICexc(3y)23.26%
ROICexc(5y)17.84%
ROICexgc(3y)27.15%
ROICexgc(5y)21.01%
ROCE(3y)25.97%
ROCE(5y)19.43%
ROICexcg growth 3Y12.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y25.56%
ROICexc growth 3Y13.98%
ROICexc growth 5Y28.12%
OM growth 3Y13.66%
OM growth 5Y30.68%
PM growth 3Y18.68%
PM growth 5Y91.22%
GM growth 3Y0.81%
GM growth 5Y2.95%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover2.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 15.26 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 104.06% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.46% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 53.72% | ||
| Profit Quality | 52.11% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.8 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.66 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.08 |
F-Score7
WACC9.12%
ROIC/WACC2.38
Cap/Depr(3y)136.97%
Cap/Depr(5y)112.49%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.54%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.99%
Profit Quality(3y)1010.66%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)4.38%
EPS 3Y18.22%
EPS 5Y15.13%
EPS Q2Q%-18.87%
EPS Next Y-16.98%
EPS Next 2Y-4.32%
EPS Next 3Y0.23%
EPS Next 5Y13.02%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.45%
Revenue growth 3Y5.61%
Revenue growth 5Y5.13%
Sales Q2Q%-3.06%
Revenue Next Year-4.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.27%
Revenue Next 3Y0.49%
Revenue Next 5Y3.97%
EBIT growth 1Y8.76%
EBIT growth 3Y20.03%
EBIT growth 5Y37.39%
EBIT Next Year42.37%
EBIT Next 3Y16.47%
EBIT Next 5Y17.13%
FCF growth 1Y717.35%
FCF growth 3Y-8.24%
FCF growth 5Y18.18%
OCF growth 1Y80.26%
OCF growth 3Y1.18%
OCF growth 5Y15.85%