PHILLIPS 66 (PSX) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:PSX - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7185461040 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to PSX. PSX was compared to 212 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. PSX scores quite bad on profitability, while its financial health is fine. Not spectacular, but in line with the averages. PSX is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing. PSX also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PSX was profitable.
PSX had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years PSX 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years PSX had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
PSX has a Return On Assets (2.90%) which is in line with its industry peers.
PSX has a Return On Equity (7.69%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 2.34%, PSX is doing worse than 70.75% of the companies in the same industry.
PSX had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.53%. This is significantly below the industry average of 27.42%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (2.34%) for PSX is well below the 3 year average (8.53%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that PSX had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.9% | ||
| ROE | 7.69% | ||
| ROIC | 2.34% |
ROA(3y)8.86%
ROA(5y)4.33%
ROE(3y)22.64%
ROE(5y)10.75%
ROIC(3y)8.53%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
PSX has a worse Profit Margin (1.47%) than 64.15% of its industry peers.
PSX's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of PSX (1.19%) is worse than 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of PSX has declined.
With a Gross Margin value of 9.21%, PSX is not doing good in the industry: 72.17% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
PSX's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 1.19% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.47% | ||
| GM | 9.21% |
OM growth 3Y44.1%
OM growth 5Y-16.87%
PM growth 3Y7.9%
PM growth 5Y-12.42%
GM growth 3Y3.1%
GM growth 5Y-3.37%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
PSX has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
PSX has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, PSX has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, PSX has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
PSX has an Altman-Z score of 3.23. This indicates that PSX is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.23, PSX belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.96% of the companies in the same industry.
PSX has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.60. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as PSX would need 8.60 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 8.60, PSX perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.77% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.67 indicates that PSX is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.67, PSX is not doing good in the industry: 63.21% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.67 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.6 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.23 |
ROIC/WACC0.24
WACC9.68%
2.3 Liquidity
PSX has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that PSX is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
PSX has a Current ratio (1.19) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.92 indicates that PSX may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.92, PSX perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 47.17% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.92 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for PSX have decreased strongly by -61.39% in the last year.
PSX shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -5.44% yearly.
Looking at the last year, PSX shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -2.88% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, PSX shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.91% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.39%
EPS 3Y2.29%
EPS 5Y-5.44%
EPS Q2Q%-104.85%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.88%
Revenue growth 3Y8.69%
Revenue growth 5Y5.91%
Sales Q2Q%-12.27%
3.2 Future
PSX is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 20.72% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -4.36% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y10.39%
EPS Next 2Y38.93%
EPS Next 3Y29.71%
EPS Next 5Y20.72%
Revenue Next Year-5.66%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.8%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.43%
Revenue Next 5Y-4.36%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
PSX is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 16.25.
PSX's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.29. PSX is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.72, PSX is valued correctly.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as PSX.
PSX is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.08, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.72 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, PSX is valued a bit more expensive than 66.51% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of PSX is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 17.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.43 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PSX's earnings are expected to grow with 29.71% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.56
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y38.93%
EPS Next 3Y29.71%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.74%, PSX is a good candidate for dividend investing.
PSX's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 7.82.
PSX's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.57.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.74% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PSX has a limited annual growth rate of 5.09%.
PSX has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PSX has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.09%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
5.3 Sustainability
PSX pays out 89.32% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of PSX is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP89.32%
EPS Next 2Y38.93%
EPS Next 3Y29.71%
99.1
+2.53 (+2.62%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners75.37%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.2%
Ins Owner Change3.44%
Market Cap40.38B
Analysts76.67
Price Target142.83 (44.13%)
Short Float %1.8%
Short Ratio1.95
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.74% |
Yearly Dividend4.49
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.09%
DP89.32%
Div Incr Years12
Div Non Decr Years12
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)29.3%
Min EPS beat(2)21.9%
Max EPS beat(2)36.71%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)15.18%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.39%
Max EPS beat(4)36.71%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)14.06%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)12.07%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)18.48%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)4.14%
Min Revenue beat(2)3.91%
Max Revenue beat(2)4.37%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)6.53%
Min Revenue beat(4)3.91%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.07%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)4.71%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)4.4%
Revenue beat(16)14
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.89%
PT rev (1m)1.22%
PT rev (3m)-2.19%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-167.84%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-121.93%
EPS NY rev (1m)-6.94%
EPS NY rev (3m)-28.29%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.42%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.98%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.71%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.72 | ||
| P/S | 0.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 17.31 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.63 | ||
| P/B | 1.47 | ||
| P/tB | 1.64 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.43 |
EPS(TTM)6.1
EY6.16%
EPS(NY)6.73
Fwd EY6.8%
FCF(TTM)5.72
FCFY5.78%
OCF(TTM)10.29
OCFY10.38%
SpS351.35
BVpS67.27
TBVpS60.55
PEG (NY)1.56
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.9% | ||
| ROE | 7.69% | ||
| ROCE | 2.97% | ||
| ROIC | 2.34% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.54% | ||
| OM | 1.19% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.47% | ||
| GM | 9.21% | ||
| FCFM | 1.63% |
ROA(3y)8.86%
ROA(5y)4.33%
ROE(3y)22.64%
ROE(5y)10.75%
ROIC(3y)8.53%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)9.24%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.66%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)10.82%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y39.36%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-16.24%
ROICexc growth 3Y39.8%
ROICexc growth 5Y-15.48%
OM growth 3Y44.1%
OM growth 5Y-16.87%
PM growth 3Y7.9%
PM growth 5Y-12.42%
GM growth 3Y3.1%
GM growth 5Y-3.37%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.97
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.67 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.6 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.48 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 78.67% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.89 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 103% | ||
| Profit Quality | 110.68% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.92 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.23 |
F-Score5
WACC9.68%
ROIC/WACC0.24
Cap/Depr(3y)111.89%
Cap/Depr(5y)132.17%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.41%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.09%
Profit Quality(3y)84.92%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.39%
EPS 3Y2.29%
EPS 5Y-5.44%
EPS Q2Q%-104.85%
EPS Next Y10.39%
EPS Next 2Y38.93%
EPS Next 3Y29.71%
EPS Next 5Y20.72%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.88%
Revenue growth 3Y8.69%
Revenue growth 5Y5.91%
Sales Q2Q%-12.27%
Revenue Next Year-5.66%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.8%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.43%
Revenue Next 5Y-4.36%
EBIT growth 1Y-79.03%
EBIT growth 3Y56.63%
EBIT growth 5Y-11.96%
EBIT Next Year99.29%
EBIT Next 3Y36.85%
EBIT Next 5Y22.07%
FCF growth 1Y-49.43%
FCF growth 3Y-17.53%
FCF growth 5Y20.06%
OCF growth 1Y-40.38%
OCF growth 3Y-11.36%
OCF growth 5Y-2.71%