POST HOLDINGS INC (POST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:POST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7374461041 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, POST scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. POST was compared to 91 industry peers in the Food Products industry. POST has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. POST is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
POST had positive earnings in the past year.
POST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years POST has always been profitable.
POST had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
POST has a Return On Assets (2.79%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
POST has a Return On Equity of 9.33%. This is in the better half of the industry: POST outperforms 68.13% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.20%, POST is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.34% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for POST is significantly below the industry average of 28.40%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.20%) for POST is above the 3 year average (4.25%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.79% | ||
| ROE | 9.33% | ||
| ROIC | 5.2% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
1.3 Margins
POST's Profit Margin of 4.53% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 68.13% of its industry peers.
POST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
POST has a Operating Margin of 10.12%. This is in the better half of the industry: POST outperforms 74.73% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of POST has declined.
POST has a better Gross Margin (29.09%) than 65.93% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of POST has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.53% | ||
| GM | 29.09% |
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so POST is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, POST has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, POST has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for POST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
POST has an Altman-Z score of 1.56. This is a bad value and indicates that POST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
POST's Altman-Z score of 1.56 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 42.86% of its industry peers.
POST has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.91. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as POST would need 13.91 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 13.91, POST is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.04% of the companies in the same industry.
POST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.81. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
POST's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.81 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. POST is outperformed by 86.81% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.81 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.91 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
ROIC/WACC0.57
WACC9.18%
2.3 Liquidity
POST has a Current Ratio of 2.13. This indicates that POST is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of POST (2.13) is better than 70.33% of its industry peers.
POST has a Quick Ratio of 1.43. This is a normal value and indicates that POST is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.43, POST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.92% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.43 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
POST shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -2.20%.
Measured over the past 5 years, POST shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.76% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.48% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, POST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.88% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-2.2%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%-6.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.48%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%-2.35%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, POST will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.46% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -5.72% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y6.52%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y11.14%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue Next Year1.19%
Revenue Next 2Y2.74%
Revenue Next 3Y1.8%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 17.53 indicates a rather expensive valuation of POST.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than 62.64% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.45. POST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.98 indicates a correct valuation of POST.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than 70.33% of the companies in the same industry.
POST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 21.90.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.98 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than 60.44% of the companies in the same industry.
80.22% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than POST, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.72 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates POST does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of POST may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.69
PEG (5Y)3.68
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y11.14%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
POST does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
108.84
-2.55 (-2.29%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryFood Products
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.24%
Inst Owner Change1.88%
Ins Owners2.69%
Ins Owner Change2.96%
Market Cap6.06B
Analysts78.82
Price Target128.83 (18.37%)
Short Float %5.32%
Short Ratio4.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)13.6%
Min EPS beat(2)12.12%
Max EPS beat(2)15.09%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)17.34%
Min EPS beat(4)12.12%
Max EPS beat(4)21.7%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)26.78%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)28.93%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)28.8%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.97%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.27%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.77%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.3%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.96%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.2%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.66%
PT rev (1m)0.08%
PT rev (3m)-0.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.75%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.99%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.48%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.16%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.98 | ||
| P/S | 0.77 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.15 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.2 | ||
| P/B | 1.58 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.72 |
EPS(TTM)6.21
EY5.71%
EPS(NY)7.78
Fwd EY7.15%
FCF(TTM)8.96
FCFY8.23%
OCF(TTM)17.57
OCFY16.14%
SpS141.5
BVpS68.75
TBVpS-70.76
PEG (NY)2.69
PEG (5Y)3.68
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.79% | ||
| ROE | 9.33% | ||
| ROCE | 6.77% | ||
| ROIC | 5.2% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.49% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.07% | ||
| OM | 10.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.53% | ||
| GM | 29.09% | ||
| FCFM | 6.33% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
ROICexc(3y)4.5%
ROICexc(5y)4.24%
ROICexgc(3y)16.24%
ROICexgc(5y)15.92%
ROCE(3y)5.53%
ROCE(5y)5.15%
ROICexcg growth 3Y12.41%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.51%
ROICexc growth 3Y15.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.02%
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.62
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.81 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.91 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.39 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 97.7% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 6.08% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 75.93% | ||
| Profit Quality | 139.74% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.13 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
F-Score5
WACC9.18%
ROIC/WACC0.57
Cap/Depr(3y)77.21%
Cap/Depr(5y)68.16%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.71%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.59%
Profit Quality(3y)100.74%
Profit Quality(5y)9882.92%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-2.2%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%-6.62%
EPS Next Y6.52%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y11.14%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.48%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%-2.35%
Revenue Next Year1.19%
Revenue Next 2Y2.74%
Revenue Next 3Y1.8%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
EBIT growth 1Y4.68%
EBIT growth 3Y17.98%
EBIT growth 5Y1.97%
EBIT Next Year74.89%
EBIT Next 3Y22.84%
EBIT Next 5Y6.4%
FCF growth 1Y225.91%
FCF growth 3Y8.27%
FCF growth 5Y3.93%
OCF growth 1Y123.01%
OCF growth 3Y16.57%
OCF growth 5Y6.25%