POST HOLDINGS INC (POST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:POST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7374461041 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
POST gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 91 industry peers in the Food Products industry. POST has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. POST has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year POST was profitable.
POST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
POST had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years POST had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
POST has a Return On Assets (3.06%) which is in line with its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 10.08%, POST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.53% of the companies in the same industry.
POST has a Return On Invested Capital (5.18%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for POST is below the industry average of 9.02%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.25%) for POST is below the current ROIC(5.18%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.06% | ||
| ROE | 10.08% | ||
| ROIC | 5.18% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
1.3 Margins
POST's Profit Margin of 4.94% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 68.24% of its industry peers.
POST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
POST's Operating Margin of 10.08% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 70.59% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of POST has declined.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 29.35%, POST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.88% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of POST has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.08% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.94% | ||
| GM | 29.35% |
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), POST is destroying value.
POST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
POST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
POST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
POST has an Altman-Z score of 1.59. This is a bad value and indicates that POST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.59, POST is not doing good in the industry: 62.35% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
POST has a debt to FCF ratio of 11.98. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as POST would need 11.98 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 11.98, POST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.88% of the companies in the same industry.
POST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.79. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.79, POST is not doing good in the industry: 87.06% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.79 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 11.98 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
ROIC/WACC0.77
WACC6.71%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.39 indicates that POST has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 2.39, POST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.41% of the companies in the same industry.
POST has a Quick Ratio of 1.64. This is a normal value and indicates that POST is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
POST has a Quick ratio of 1.64. This is in the better half of the industry: POST outperforms 74.12% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.39 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.64 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.23% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, POST shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.76% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.32% in the past year.
POST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.88% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.23%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%2.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.32%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%0.45%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, POST will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.46% on average per year.
POST is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -5.72% yearly.
EPS Next Y1.1%
EPS Next 2Y7.51%
EPS Next 3Y7.69%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue Next Year1.66%
Revenue Next 2Y1.62%
Revenue Next 3Y1.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 18.33, the valuation of POST can be described as rather expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as POST.
POST is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.63, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.96, which indicates a correct valuation of POST.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than 72.94% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.68. POST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.96 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as POST.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 78.82% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11.26 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.78 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
POST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)16.73
PEG (5Y)3.85
EPS Next 2Y7.51%
EPS Next 3Y7.69%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for POST!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
115.66
+0.89 (+0.78%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryFood Products
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93%
Inst Owner Change1.03%
Ins Owners2.16%
Ins Owner Change0.44%
Market Cap6.53B
Analysts80
Price Target128.21 (10.85%)
Short Float %4.81%
Short Ratio4
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)16.91%
Min EPS beat(2)12.12%
Max EPS beat(2)21.7%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)17.56%
Min EPS beat(4)12.12%
Max EPS beat(4)21.7%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)28.95%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)43.85%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)24.83%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.19%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.3%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.77%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.3%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.38%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.22%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-4.52%
PT rev (1m)-0.87%
PT rev (3m)0.56%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-22.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-22.05%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.58%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.48%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.07%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.97%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.06%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.1%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.96 | ||
| P/S | 0.82 | ||
| P/FCF | 11.26 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.12 | ||
| P/B | 1.68 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.78 |
EPS(TTM)6.31
EY5.46%
EPS(NY)7.25
Fwd EY6.27%
FCF(TTM)10.27
FCFY8.88%
OCF(TTM)18.9
OCFY16.34%
SpS140.43
BVpS68.83
TBVpS-67.71
PEG (NY)16.73
PEG (5Y)3.85
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.06% | ||
| ROE | 10.08% | ||
| ROCE | 6.75% | ||
| ROIC | 5.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.6% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.86% | ||
| OM | 10.08% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.94% | ||
| GM | 29.35% | ||
| FCFM | 7.31% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
ROICexc(3y)4.5%
ROICexc(5y)4.24%
ROICexgc(3y)16.24%
ROICexgc(5y)15.92%
ROCE(3y)5.53%
ROCE(5y)5.15%
ROICexcg growth 3Y12.41%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.51%
ROICexc growth 3Y15.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.02%
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.62
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.79 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 11.98 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 100.6% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 6.15% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 83.16% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.39 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
F-Score8
WACC6.71%
ROIC/WACC0.77
Cap/Depr(3y)77.21%
Cap/Depr(5y)68.16%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.71%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.59%
Profit Quality(3y)100.74%
Profit Quality(5y)9882.92%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.23%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%2.37%
EPS Next Y1.1%
EPS Next 2Y7.51%
EPS Next 3Y7.69%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.32%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%0.45%
Revenue Next Year1.66%
Revenue Next 2Y1.62%
Revenue Next 3Y1.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
EBIT growth 1Y12.58%
EBIT growth 3Y17.98%
EBIT growth 5Y1.97%
EBIT Next Year73.36%
EBIT Next 3Y22.71%
EBIT Next 5Y6.4%
FCF growth 1Y363.63%
FCF growth 3Y8.27%
FCF growth 5Y3.93%
OCF growth 1Y184.87%
OCF growth 3Y16.57%
OCF growth 5Y6.25%