POST HOLDINGS INC (POST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:POST - US7374461041 - Common Stock
105.82 USD
+2.33 (+2.25%)
105.82 USD
0 (0%)
POST gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 87 industry peers in the Food Products industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of POST get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. POST has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year POST was profitable.
POST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years POST has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years POST had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of POST (2.74%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
POST has a Return On Equity of 9.17%. This is in the better half of the industry: POST outperforms 68.97% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 5.17%, POST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.32% of the companies in the same industry.
POST had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.25%. This is significantly below the industry average of 28.34%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.17%) for POST is above the 3 year average (4.25%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.74% | ||
| ROE | 9.17% | ||
| ROIC | 5.17% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 4.62%, POST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.11% of the companies in the same industry.
POST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
POST's Operating Margin of 10.50% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 75.86% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of POST has declined.
POST has a better Gross Margin (29.20%) than 66.67% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of POST has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.62% | ||
| GM | 29.2% |
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so POST is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, POST has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for POST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, POST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.53, we must say that POST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
POST's Altman-Z score of 1.53 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 40.23% of its industry peers.
POST has a debt to FCF ratio of 16.98. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as POST would need 16.98 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 16.98, POST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.87% of the companies in the same industry.
POST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.84. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of POST (1.84) is worse than 86.21% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.98 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
ROIC/WACC0.83
WACC6.22%
2.3 Liquidity
POST has a Current Ratio of 2.60. This indicates that POST is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
POST has a Current ratio of 2.60. This is in the better half of the industry: POST outperforms 77.01% of its industry peers.
POST has a Quick Ratio of 1.84. This is a normal value and indicates that POST is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
POST has a better Quick ratio (1.84) than 82.76% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 5.18% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, POST shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.76% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, POST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 0.80% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.88% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.18%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%31.82%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.8%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%1.88%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 2.46% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, POST will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -5.72% on average per year.
EPS Next Y13.7%
EPS Next 2Y12.43%
EPS Next 3Y13.17%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue Next Year3.65%
Revenue Next 2Y5.89%
Revenue Next 3Y3.75%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 15.79, the valuation of POST can be described as correct.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of POST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: POST is cheaper than 67.82% of the companies listed in the same industry.
POST is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.42, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.35 indicates a correct valuation of POST.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of POST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: POST is cheaper than 73.56% of the companies listed in the same industry.
POST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.94.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.35 |
4.2 Price Multiples
66.67% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than POST, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, POST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.86% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.03 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
POST's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
POST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as POST's earnings are expected to grow with 13.17% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.15
PEG (5Y)3.32
EPS Next 2Y12.43%
EPS Next 3Y13.17%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
POST does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
105.82
+2.33 (+2.25%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryFood Products
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.18%
Inst Owner Change-0.52%
Ins Owners2.48%
Ins Owner Change3.59%
Market Cap5.75B
Analysts81.25
Price Target128.46 (21.39%)
Short Float %7.42%
Short Ratio4.95
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.95%
Min EPS beat(2)15.09%
Max EPS beat(2)20.81%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)17.43%
Min EPS beat(4)12.12%
Max EPS beat(4)21.7%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)21.95%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)28.56%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)30.45%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.83%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.27%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.39%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.51%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.27%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.3%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.02%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.04%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.54%
PT rev (1m)-0.06%
PT rev (3m)-0.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)5.81%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.74%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.17%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)6.53%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.42%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.35 | ||
| P/S | 0.73 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.28 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.16 | ||
| P/B | 1.44 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.03 |
EPS(TTM)6.7
EY6.33%
EPS(NY)7.93
Fwd EY7.49%
FCF(TTM)7.97
FCFY7.53%
OCF(TTM)17.16
OCFY16.22%
SpS145.82
BVpS73.57
TBVpS-70.07
PEG (NY)1.15
PEG (5Y)3.32
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.74% | ||
| ROE | 9.17% | ||
| ROCE | 6.73% | ||
| ROIC | 5.17% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.65% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.28% | ||
| OM | 10.5% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.62% | ||
| GM | 29.2% | ||
| FCFM | 5.46% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
ROICexc(3y)4.5%
ROICexc(5y)4.24%
ROICexgc(3y)16.24%
ROICexgc(5y)15.92%
ROCE(3y)5.53%
ROCE(5y)5.15%
ROICexcg growth 3Y12.41%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.51%
ROICexc growth 3Y15.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.02%
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.59
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 16.98 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 99.48% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 6.31% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 69.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 118.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
F-Score6
WACC6.22%
ROIC/WACC0.83
Cap/Depr(3y)77.21%
Cap/Depr(5y)68.16%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.71%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.59%
Profit Quality(3y)100.74%
Profit Quality(5y)9882.92%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.18%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%31.82%
EPS Next Y13.7%
EPS Next 2Y12.43%
EPS Next 3Y13.17%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.8%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%1.88%
Revenue Next Year3.65%
Revenue Next 2Y5.89%
Revenue Next 3Y3.75%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
EBIT growth 1Y3.13%
EBIT growth 3Y17.98%
EBIT growth 5Y1.97%
EBIT Next Year81.72%
EBIT Next 3Y24.76%
EBIT Next 5Y6.4%
FCF growth 1Y21.85%
FCF growth 3Y8.27%
FCF growth 5Y3.93%
OCF growth 1Y44.56%
OCF growth 3Y16.57%
OCF growth 5Y6.25%