POST HOLDINGS INC (POST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:POST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7374461041 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to POST. POST was compared to 89 industry peers in the Food Products industry. POST has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. POST is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year POST was profitable.
In the past year POST had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years POST has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years POST always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
POST has a Return On Assets (3.06%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
POST has a better Return On Equity (10.08%) than 64.04% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.18%, POST is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.44% of the companies in the same industry.
POST had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.25%. This is below the industry average of 9.00%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.25%) for POST is below the current ROIC(5.18%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.06% | ||
| ROE | 10.08% | ||
| ROIC | 5.18% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
1.3 Margins
POST's Profit Margin of 4.94% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 70.79% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of POST has grown nicely.
POST has a better Operating Margin (10.08%) than 74.16% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of POST has declined.
POST's Gross Margin of 29.35% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 66.29% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of POST has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.08% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.94% | ||
| GM | 29.35% |
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), POST is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for POST has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for POST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for POST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
POST has an Altman-Z score of 1.59. This is a bad value and indicates that POST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.59, POST is in line with its industry, outperforming 41.57% of the companies in the same industry.
POST has a debt to FCF ratio of 11.98. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as POST would need 11.98 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of POST (11.98) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.79 is on the high side and indicates that POST has dependencies on debt financing.
POST has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.79) than 85.39% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.79 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 11.98 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
ROIC/WACC0.81
WACC6.37%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.39 indicates that POST has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
POST's Current ratio of 2.39 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. POST outperforms 68.54% of its industry peers.
POST has a Quick Ratio of 1.64. This is a normal value and indicates that POST is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of POST (1.64) is better than 78.65% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.39 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.64 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.23% over the past year.
POST shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.76% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.32% in the past year.
POST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.88% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.23%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%2.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.32%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%0.45%
3.2 Future
POST is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.46% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, POST will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -5.72% on average per year.
EPS Next Y3.54%
EPS Next 2Y8.99%
EPS Next 3Y8.16%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue Next Year1.16%
Revenue Next 2Y1.46%
Revenue Next 3Y1.04%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 17.88, POST is valued on the expensive side.
POST's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.78. POST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
POST is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.15.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of POST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: POST is cheaper than 71.91% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.32, POST is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.15 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of POST is on the same level as its industry peers.
78.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than POST, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.99 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.69 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates POST does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
POST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)5.05
PEG (5Y)3.76
EPS Next 2Y8.99%
EPS Next 3Y8.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
POST does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
112.82
-1.37 (-1.2%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryFood Products
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners95.54%
Inst Owner Change-34.17%
Ins Owners2.68%
Ins Owner Change-5.1%
Market Cap6.37B
Analysts80
Price Target129.2 (14.52%)
Short Float %5.26%
Short Ratio4.05
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)16.91%
Min EPS beat(2)12.12%
Max EPS beat(2)21.7%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)17.56%
Min EPS beat(4)12.12%
Max EPS beat(4)21.7%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)28.95%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)43.85%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)24.83%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.19%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.68%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.3%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.77%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.3%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.38%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.22%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-4.52%
PT rev (1m)0.18%
PT rev (3m)-0.11%
EPS NQ rev (1m)3.22%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-23.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.87%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.05%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.41%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.2%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.55%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.15 | ||
| P/S | 0.8 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.99 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.97 | ||
| P/B | 1.64 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.69 |
EPS(TTM)6.31
EY5.59%
EPS(NY)7.45
Fwd EY6.6%
FCF(TTM)10.27
FCFY9.1%
OCF(TTM)18.9
OCFY16.76%
SpS140.43
BVpS68.83
TBVpS-67.71
PEG (NY)5.05
PEG (5Y)3.76
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.06% | ||
| ROE | 10.08% | ||
| ROCE | 6.75% | ||
| ROIC | 5.18% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.6% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.86% | ||
| OM | 10.08% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 4.94% | ||
| GM | 29.35% | ||
| FCFM | 7.31% |
ROA(3y)4.04%
ROA(5y)2.7%
ROE(3y)13.35%
ROE(5y)9.23%
ROIC(3y)4.25%
ROIC(5y)3.95%
ROICexc(3y)4.5%
ROICexc(5y)4.24%
ROICexgc(3y)16.24%
ROICexgc(5y)15.92%
ROCE(3y)5.53%
ROCE(5y)5.15%
ROICexcg growth 3Y12.41%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.51%
ROICexc growth 3Y15.92%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.02%
OM growth 3Y1.07%
OM growth 5Y-4.6%
PM growth 3Y11.41%
PM growth 5Y16.66%
GM growth 3Y0.49%
GM growth 5Y-1.61%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.62
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.79 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 11.98 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 100.6% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 6.15% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 83.16% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.39 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.59 |
F-Score8
WACC6.37%
ROIC/WACC0.81
Cap/Depr(3y)77.21%
Cap/Depr(5y)68.16%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.71%
Cap/Sales(5y)4.59%
Profit Quality(3y)100.74%
Profit Quality(5y)9882.92%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.23%
EPS 3Y38.11%
EPS 5Y4.76%
EPS Q2Q%2.37%
EPS Next Y3.54%
EPS Next 2Y8.99%
EPS Next 3Y8.16%
EPS Next 5Y2.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.32%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y6.88%
Sales Q2Q%0.45%
Revenue Next Year1.16%
Revenue Next 2Y1.46%
Revenue Next 3Y1.04%
Revenue Next 5Y-5.72%
EBIT growth 1Y12.58%
EBIT growth 3Y17.98%
EBIT growth 5Y1.97%
EBIT Next Year73.72%
EBIT Next 3Y22.48%
EBIT Next 5Y6.4%
FCF growth 1Y363.63%
FCF growth 3Y8.27%
FCF growth 5Y3.93%
OCF growth 1Y184.87%
OCF growth 3Y16.57%
OCF growth 5Y6.25%