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PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:PKG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6951561090 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

214.24  -0.88 (-0.41%)

After market: 214.24 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

5

Taking everything into account, PKG scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. PKG was compared to 24 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. PKG gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. PKG has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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7

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

PKG had positive earnings in the past year.
PKG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
PKG had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Of the past 5 years PKG 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
PKG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFPKG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

PKG has a Return On Assets of 8.77%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PKG outperforms 95.65% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of PKG (18.00%) is better than 78.26% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of PKG (10.91%) is better than 95.65% of its industry peers.
PKG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 13.62%. This is significantly above the industry average of 7.70%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 8.77%
ROE 18%
ROIC 10.91%
ROA(3y)10.72%
ROA(5y)9.57%
ROE(3y)23.33%
ROE(5y)21.32%
ROIC(3y)13.62%
ROIC(5y)12.59%
PKG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICPKG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

The Profit Margin of PKG (9.39%) is better than 91.30% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of PKG has remained more or less at the same level.
PKG has a Operating Margin of 13.53%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PKG outperforms 91.30% of its industry peers.
PKG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
PKG has a Gross Margin (21.08%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of PKG has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 13.53%
PM (TTM) 9.39%
GM 21.08%
OM growth 3Y4.22%
OM growth 5Y-1.85%
PM growth 3Y12.29%
PM growth 5Y-1.4%
GM growth 3Y1.5%
GM growth 5Y-1.48%
PKG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsPKG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5 10 15 20

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7

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so PKG is still creating some value.
PKG has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
PKG Yearly Shares OutstandingPKG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20M 40M 60M 80M
PKG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsPKG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 4.81 indicates that PKG is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 4.81, PKG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of PKG is 4.21, which is a neutral value as it means it would take PKG, 4.21 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.21, PKG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.58 indicates that PKG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
PKG's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.58 is amongst the best of the industry. PKG outperforms 91.30% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.58
Debt/FCF 4.21
Altman-Z 4.81
ROIC/WACC1.3
WACC8.36%
PKG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFPKG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

PKG has a Current Ratio of 2.95. This indicates that PKG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
With an excellent Current ratio value of 2.95, PKG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.98 indicates that PKG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With an excellent Quick ratio value of 1.98, PKG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.95
Quick Ratio 1.98
PKG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesPKG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B

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3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.03% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, PKG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 3.40% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)4.03%
EPS 3Y-1.26%
EPS 5Y3.4%
EPS Q2Q%15.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%10.74%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 6.39% on average over the next years.
PKG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.62% yearly.
EPS Next Y27.76%
EPS Next 2Y18.97%
EPS Next 3Y11.73%
EPS Next 5Y6.39%
Revenue Next Year7%
Revenue Next 2Y5.22%
Revenue Next 3Y4.11%
Revenue Next 5Y3.62%

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
PKG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesPKG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
PKG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesPKG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2 4 6 8 10

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

PKG is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 23.70.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, PKG is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 73.91% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
PKG is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.51, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.55 indicates a rather expensive valuation of PKG.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, PKG is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 73.91% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 93.88, PKG is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 23.7
Fwd PE 18.55
PKG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsPKG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, PKG is valued a bit more expensive than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
PKG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. PKG is more expensive than 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 32.63
EV/EBITDA 12.87
PKG Per share dataPKG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60 80

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PKG has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.85
PEG (5Y)6.98
EPS Next 2Y18.97%
EPS Next 3Y11.73%

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5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

PKG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.10%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.06, PKG has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.27, PKG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.1%

5.2 History

On average, the dividend of PKG grows each year by 12.01%, which is quite nice.
PKG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PKG has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)12.01%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years14
PKG Yearly Dividends per sharePKG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1 2 3 4

5.3 Sustainability

58.43% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PKG. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
PKG's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP58.43%
EPS Next 2Y18.97%
EPS Next 3Y11.73%
PKG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendPKG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
PKG Dividend Payout.PKG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.PKG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA

NYSE:PKG (1/30/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 214.24 0 (0%)

214.24

-0.88 (-0.41%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)01-28 2025-01-28/amc
Earnings (Next)N/A N/A
Inst Owners91.29%
Inst Owner Change-0.47%
Ins Owners1.64%
Ins Owner Change-7.78%
Market Cap19.24B
Analysts78.57
Price Target255.08 (19.06%)
Short Float %1.75%
Short Ratio2.15
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.1%
Yearly Dividend5.01
Dividend Growth(5Y)12.01%
DP58.43%
Div Incr Years13
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.41%
Min EPS beat(2)1.91%
Max EPS beat(2)4.9%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)5.81%
Min EPS beat(4)1.5%
Max EPS beat(4)14.94%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)5.99%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)8.23%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)9.13%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.33%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.48%
Max Revenue beat(2)3.19%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.99%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.62%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.19%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.08%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.1%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.53%
PT rev (1m)3.95%
PT rev (3m)12.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.8%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.33%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.51%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.64%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 23.7
Fwd PE 18.55
P/S 2.35
P/FCF 32.63
P/OCF 16.02
P/B 4.51
P/tB 6.13
EV/EBITDA 12.87
EPS(TTM)9.04
EY4.22%
EPS(NY)11.55
Fwd EY5.39%
FCF(TTM)6.57
FCFY3.06%
OCF(TTM)13.38
OCFY6.24%
SpS91.04
BVpS47.48
TBVpS34.97
PEG (NY)0.85
PEG (5Y)6.98
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 8.77%
ROE 18%
ROCE 14.45%
ROIC 10.91%
ROICexc 12.13%
ROICexgc 14.49%
OM 13.53%
PM (TTM) 9.39%
GM 21.08%
FCFM 7.21%
ROA(3y)10.72%
ROA(5y)9.57%
ROE(3y)23.33%
ROE(5y)21.32%
ROIC(3y)13.62%
ROIC(5y)12.59%
ROICexc(3y)15.15%
ROICexc(5y)14.21%
ROICexgc(3y)18.61%
ROICexgc(5y)17.68%
ROCE(3y)18.06%
ROCE(5y)16.68%
ROICexcg growth 3Y4.54%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.56%
ROICexc growth 3Y5.61%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.3%
OM growth 3Y4.22%
OM growth 5Y-1.85%
PM growth 3Y12.29%
PM growth 5Y-1.4%
GM growth 3Y1.5%
GM growth 5Y-1.48%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.93
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.58
Debt/FCF 4.21
Debt/EBITDA 1.53
Cap/Depr 117.48%
Cap/Sales 7.48%
Interest Coverage 11.49
Cash Conversion 73.84%
Profit Quality 76.81%
Current Ratio 2.95
Quick Ratio 1.98
Altman-Z 4.81
F-Score4
WACC8.36%
ROIC/WACC1.3
Cap/Depr(3y)139.46%
Cap/Depr(5y)125.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.18%
Profit Quality(3y)78.15%
Profit Quality(5y)96.62%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)4.03%
EPS 3Y-1.26%
EPS 5Y3.4%
EPS Q2Q%15.96%
EPS Next Y27.76%
EPS Next 2Y18.97%
EPS Next 3Y11.73%
EPS Next 5Y6.39%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%10.74%
Revenue Next Year7%
Revenue Next 2Y5.22%
Revenue Next 3Y4.11%
Revenue Next 5Y3.62%
EBIT growth 1Y-3.43%
EBIT growth 3Y9.88%
EBIT growth 5Y0.26%
EBIT Next Year55.28%
EBIT Next 3Y24.93%
EBIT Next 5Y16.51%
FCF growth 1Y-8.42%
FCF growth 3Y11.67%
FCF growth 5Y6.19%
OCF growth 1Y-18.05%
OCF growth 3Y8.39%
OCF growth 5Y2.19%