PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:PKG - US6951561090 - Common Stock
193.4 USD
-3.39 (-1.72%)
193.4 USD
0 (0%)
PKG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. PKG scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. PKG is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate. These ratings could make PKG a good candidate for quality investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PKG was profitable.
In the past year PKG had a positive cash flow from operations.
PKG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
PKG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 8.08%, PKG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.45% of the companies in the same industry.
PKG has a better Return On Equity (18.66%) than 81.82% of its industry peers.
PKG's Return On Invested Capital of 9.72% is amongst the best of the industry. PKG outperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
PKG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 12.69%. This is significantly above the industry average of 7.62%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.08% | ||
| ROE | 18.66% | ||
| ROIC | 9.72% |
ROA(3y)10.19%
ROA(5y)9.47%
ROE(3y)21.67%
ROE(5y)20.45%
ROIC(3y)12.69%
ROIC(5y)12.31%
1.3 Margins
PKG has a Profit Margin of 10.12%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PKG outperforms 90.91% of its industry peers.
PKG's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
PKG has a Operating Margin of 14.49%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PKG outperforms 95.45% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of PKG has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 21.79%, PKG is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of PKG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.12% | ||
| GM | 21.79% |
OM growth 3Y-6.17%
OM growth 5Y-2.42%
PM growth 3Y-4.05%
PM growth 5Y-0.79%
GM growth 3Y-4.25%
GM growth 5Y-2.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so PKG is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for PKG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for PKG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for PKG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.67 indicates that PKG is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
PKG's Altman-Z score of 3.67 is amongst the best of the industry. PKG outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
PKG has a debt to FCF ratio of 5.50. This is a neutral value as PKG would need 5.50 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PKG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 5.50. This is amongst the best in the industry. PKG outperforms 90.91% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.84 indicates that PKG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
PKG's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.84 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. PKG outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.5 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.67 |
ROIC/WACC1.15
WACC8.42%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 3.16 indicates that PKG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
PKG's Current ratio of 3.16 is amongst the best of the industry. PKG outperforms 90.91% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.00 indicates that PKG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
PKG has a better Quick ratio (2.00) than 90.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.16 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
PKG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 14.83%, which is quite good.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 3.40% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.30% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, PKG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 3.78% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.83%
EPS 3Y-1.26%
EPS 5Y3.4%
EPS Q2Q%3.02%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.3%
Revenue growth 3Y2.74%
Revenue growth 5Y3.78%
Sales Q2Q%6%
3.2 Future
PKG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.96% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.36% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y11.18%
EPS Next 2Y13.18%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
EPS Next 5Y11.96%
Revenue Next Year8.52%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y8.26%
Revenue Next 5Y7.36%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 19.36, PKG is valued on the expensive side.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, PKG is valued a bit more expensive than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
PKG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 26.34.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 16.70, which indicates a correct valuation of PKG.
PKG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. PKG is more expensive than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
PKG is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.56, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.7 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of PKG is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of PKG is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 24.07 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.35 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PKG has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.73
PEG (5Y)5.7
EPS Next 2Y13.18%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
PKG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.54%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.34, PKG has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.31, PKG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.54% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PKG is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.64%!
PKG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PKG has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.64%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years15
5.3 Sustainability
50.65% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PKG. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of PKG is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP50.65%
EPS Next 2Y13.18%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
193.4
-3.39 (-1.72%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.36%
Inst Owner Change6.89%
Ins Owners1.58%
Ins Owner Change-1.65%
Market Cap17.40B
Revenue(TTM)8.77B
Net Income(TTM)887.30M
Analysts72.5
Price Target229.38 (18.6%)
Short Float %2.78%
Short Ratio3.36
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.54% |
Yearly Dividend5
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.64%
DP50.65%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years15
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.53%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.83%
Max EPS beat(2)0.77%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-0.73%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.83%
Max EPS beat(4)3.62%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)2.54%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)3.75%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.71%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.5%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.47%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.71%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.56%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.76%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.88%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.19%
PT rev (1m)0.16%
PT rev (3m)5.55%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.19%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.33%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.45%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)7.24%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.83%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.7 | ||
| P/S | 1.98 | ||
| P/FCF | 24.07 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.12 | ||
| P/B | 3.66 | ||
| P/tB | 6.07 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.35 |
EPS(TTM)9.99
EY5.17%
EPS(NY)11.58
Fwd EY5.99%
FCF(TTM)8.04
FCFY4.15%
OCF(TTM)15.96
OCFY8.25%
SpS97.49
BVpS52.85
TBVpS31.84
PEG (NY)1.73
PEG (5Y)5.7
Graham Number108.99
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.08% | ||
| ROE | 18.66% | ||
| ROCE | 12.87% | ||
| ROIC | 9.72% | ||
| ROICexc | 10.5% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.23% | ||
| OM | 14.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.12% | ||
| GM | 21.79% | ||
| FCFM | 8.24% |
ROA(3y)10.19%
ROA(5y)9.47%
ROE(3y)21.67%
ROE(5y)20.45%
ROIC(3y)12.69%
ROIC(5y)12.31%
ROICexc(3y)14.1%
ROICexc(5y)13.85%
ROICexgc(3y)17.07%
ROICexgc(5y)16.99%
ROCE(3y)16.8%
ROCE(5y)16.3%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-8.84%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-4.23%
ROICexc growth 3Y-7.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.79%
OM growth 3Y-6.17%
OM growth 5Y-2.42%
PM growth 3Y-4.05%
PM growth 5Y-0.79%
GM growth 3Y-4.25%
GM growth 5Y-2.06%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.5 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 125.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 8.13% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 13.66 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.15% | ||
| Profit Quality | 81.48% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.16 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.67 |
F-Score5
WACC8.42%
ROIC/WACC1.15
Cap/Depr(3y)133.6%
Cap/Depr(5y)130.1%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.95%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.63%
Profit Quality(3y)80.36%
Profit Quality(5y)86.35%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)14.83%
EPS 3Y-1.26%
EPS 5Y3.4%
EPS Q2Q%3.02%
EPS Next Y11.18%
EPS Next 2Y13.18%
EPS Next 3Y11.65%
EPS Next 5Y11.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.3%
Revenue growth 3Y2.74%
Revenue growth 5Y3.78%
Sales Q2Q%6%
Revenue Next Year8.52%
Revenue Next 2Y10.87%
Revenue Next 3Y8.26%
Revenue Next 5Y7.36%
EBIT growth 1Y14.88%
EBIT growth 3Y-3.6%
EBIT growth 5Y1.26%
EBIT Next Year65.51%
EBIT Next 3Y26.88%
EBIT Next 5Y18.55%
FCF growth 1Y-11.97%
FCF growth 3Y2.17%
FCF growth 5Y-8.36%
OCF growth 1Y2.6%
OCF growth 3Y2.87%
OCF growth 5Y-0.27%
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA / PKG FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for PKG stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to PKG.
What is the valuation status of PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of PKG stock?
PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for PKG stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) is expected to grow by 11.18% in the next year.
Is the dividend of PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA sustainable?
The dividend rating of PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 50.65%.