PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:PKG • US6951561090

Current stock price

213.99 USD
+1.12 (+0.53%)
Last:

This PKG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

8

1. PKG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • PKG had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year PKG had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • PKG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • PKG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
PKG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFPKG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B

1.2 Ratios

  • With an excellent Return On Assets value of 7.17%, PKG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
  • PKG's Return On Equity of 16.72% is amongst the best of the industry. PKG outperforms 80.95% of its industry peers.
  • PKG's Return On Invested Capital of 9.55% is amongst the best of the industry. PKG outperforms 85.71% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for PKG is above the industry average of 6.91%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 16.72%
ROIC 9.55%
ROA(3y)8.32%
ROA(5y)9.68%
ROE(3y)17.95%
ROE(5y)20.97%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)12.3%
PKG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICPKG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of PKG (8.55%) is better than 90.48% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of PKG has grown nicely.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 13.67%, PKG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • PKG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • With a decent Gross Margin value of 21.02%, PKG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
  • PKG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 13.67%
PM (TTM) 8.55%
GM 21.02%
OM growth 3Y-7.66%
OM growth 5Y1.58%
PM growth 3Y-10.8%
PM growth 5Y4.48%
GM growth 3Y-5.18%
GM growth 5Y0.19%
PKG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsPKG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15 20

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ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

7

2. PKG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so PKG is still creating some value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for PKG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, PKG has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 1 year ago, PKG has a worse debt to assets ratio.
PKG Yearly Shares OutstandingPKG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M
PKG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsPKG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

  • PKG has an Altman-Z score of 3.83. This indicates that PKG is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 3.83, PKG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.24% of the companies in the same industry.
  • PKG has a debt to FCF ratio of 5.47. This is a neutral value as PKG would need 5.47 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • PKG's Debt to FCF ratio of 5.47 is amongst the best of the industry. PKG outperforms 90.48% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.86 indicates that PKG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of PKG (0.86) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.86
Debt/FCF 5.47
Altman-Z 3.83
ROIC/WACC1.2
WACC7.99%
PKG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFPKG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 3.17 indicates that PKG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • PKG has a Current ratio of 3.17. This is amongst the best in the industry. PKG outperforms 90.48% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 1.94 indicates that PKG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • PKG's Quick ratio of 1.94 is amongst the best of the industry. PKG outperforms 90.48% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.17
Quick Ratio 1.94
PKG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesPKG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. PKG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 3.12% over the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, PKG shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 11.23% on average per year.
  • PKG shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 7.86%.
  • PKG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.19% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)3.12%
EPS 3Y-4.02%
EPS 5Y11.23%
EPS Q2Q%3.9%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.86%
Revenue growth 3Y1.97%
Revenue growth 5Y6.19%
Sales Q2Q%10.59%

3.2 Future

  • PKG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 10.35% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, PKG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.08% on average per year.
EPS Next Y9.96%
EPS Next 2Y11.27%
EPS Next 3Y10.8%
EPS Next 5Y10.35%
Revenue Next Year10.96%
Revenue Next 2Y7.74%
Revenue Next 3Y5.63%
Revenue Next 5Y6.08%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
  • The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
PKG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesPKG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
PKG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesPKG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 5 10 15

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3

4. PKG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 21.55, the valuation of PKG can be described as rather expensive.
  • 66.67% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than PKG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
  • PKG is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.42, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.56, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of PKG.
  • PKG's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.29. PKG is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 21.55
Fwd PE 17.56
PKG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsPKG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, PKG is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 76.19% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
  • PKG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 26.23
EV/EBITDA 11.76
PKG Per share dataPKG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60 80 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
  • PKG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.16
PEG (5Y)1.92
EPS Next 2Y11.27%
EPS Next 3Y10.8%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

6

5. PKG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.35%, PKG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.67, PKG has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
  • PKG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 1.81.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.35%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of PKG is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.70%!
  • PKG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • PKG has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.7%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years16
PKG Yearly Dividends per sharePKG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 2 3 4

5.3 Sustainability

  • PKG pays out 58.48% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
  • PKG's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP58.48%
EPS Next 2Y11.27%
EPS Next 3Y10.8%
PKG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendPKG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
PKG Dividend Payout.PKG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.PKG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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PKG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA

NYSE:PKG (4/27/2026, 3:48:53 PM)

213.99

+1.12 (+0.53%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)04-22
Earnings (Next)07-21
Inst Owners98.81%
Inst Owner Change1.15%
Ins Owners1.62%
Ins Owner Change6.13%
Market Cap19.05B
Revenue(TTM)9.22B
Net Income(TTM)768.80M
Analysts74.67
Price Target232.48 (8.64%)
Short Float %3.86%
Short Ratio3.17
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.35%
Yearly Dividend5.02
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.7%
DP58.48%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years16
Ex-Date03-13
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-4.17%
Min EPS beat(2)-4.51%
Max EPS beat(2)-3.83%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-0.99%
Min EPS beat(4)-4.51%
Max EPS beat(4)3.62%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)0.11%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)3.7%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.5%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.41%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.56%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.18%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.87%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.71%
PT rev (1m)-0.97%
PT rev (3m)0.56%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.11%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.6%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.15%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.18%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.01%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.29%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.93%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.67%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 21.55
Fwd PE 17.56
P/S 2.12
P/FCF 26.23
P/OCF 12.23
P/B 4.14
P/tB 7.26
EV/EBITDA 11.76
EPS(TTM)9.93
EY4.64%
EPS(NY)12.18
Fwd EY5.69%
FCF(TTM)8.16
FCFY3.81%
OCF(TTM)17.49
OCFY8.18%
SpS100.97
BVpS51.65
TBVpS29.47
PEG (NY)2.16
PEG (5Y)1.92
Graham Number107.419 (-49.8%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.17%
ROE 16.72%
ROCE 12.65%
ROIC 9.55%
ROICexc 10.34%
ROICexgc 13.25%
OM 13.67%
PM (TTM) 8.55%
GM 21.02%
FCFM 8.08%
ROA(3y)8.32%
ROA(5y)9.68%
ROE(3y)17.95%
ROE(5y)20.97%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)12.3%
ROICexc(3y)11.98%
ROICexc(5y)13.59%
ROICexgc(3y)14.69%
ROICexgc(5y)16.7%
ROCE(3y)14.13%
ROCE(5y)16.3%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-13.5%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-2.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y-14.91%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.24%
OM growth 3Y-7.66%
OM growth 5Y1.58%
PM growth 3Y-10.8%
PM growth 5Y4.48%
GM growth 3Y-5.18%
GM growth 5Y0.19%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.84
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.86
Debt/FCF 5.47
Debt/EBITDA 2.11
Cap/Depr 127.34%
Cap/Sales 9.25%
Interest Coverage 12.21
Cash Conversion 82.79%
Profit Quality 94.46%
Current Ratio 3.17
Quick Ratio 1.94
Altman-Z 3.83
F-Score4
WACC7.99%
ROIC/WACC1.2
Cap/Depr(3y)115.45%
Cap/Depr(5y)134.7%
Cap/Sales(3y)7.77%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.19%
Profit Quality(3y)90.16%
Profit Quality(5y)78.78%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)3.12%
EPS 3Y-4.02%
EPS 5Y11.23%
EPS Q2Q%3.9%
EPS Next Y9.96%
EPS Next 2Y11.27%
EPS Next 3Y10.8%
EPS Next 5Y10.35%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.86%
Revenue growth 3Y1.97%
Revenue growth 5Y6.19%
Sales Q2Q%10.59%
Revenue Next Year10.96%
Revenue Next 2Y7.74%
Revenue Next 3Y5.63%
Revenue Next 5Y6.08%
EBIT growth 1Y6.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-5.84%
EBIT growth 5Y7.86%
EBIT Next Year68.55%
EBIT Next 3Y24.37%
EBIT Next 5Y16.07%
FCF growth 1Y39.76%
FCF growth 3Y3%
FCF growth 5Y3.71%
OCF growth 1Y30.75%
OCF growth 3Y1.37%
OCF growth 5Y8.56%

PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA / PKG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for PKG stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to PKG.


What is the valuation status for PKG stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG). This can be considered as Overvalued.


How profitable is PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) stock?

PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.


What is the earnings growth outlook for PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) is expected to grow by 9.96% in the next year.


Is the dividend of PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA sustainable?

The dividend rating of PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA (PKG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 58.48%.