PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR)
US7433151039 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to PGR. PGR was compared to 141 industry peers in the Insurance industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of PGR get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. PGR is showing excellent growth while it is valued at reasonable prices. Keep and eye on this one!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
PGR had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year PGR had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR has been profitable.
PGR had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
PGR's Return On Assets of 7.68% is amongst the best of the industry. PGR outperforms 90.71% of its industry peers.
PGR's Return On Equity of 29.76% is amongst the best of the industry. PGR outperforms 92.14% of its industry peers.
PGR's Return On Invested Capital of 8.57% is amongst the best of the industry. PGR outperforms 91.43% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for PGR is in line with the industry average of 4.38%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.57%) for PGR is above the 3 year average (3.98%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.68% | ||
| ROE | 29.76% | ||
| ROIC | 8.57% |
ROA(3y)3.32%
ROA(5y)5.2%
ROE(3y)13.89%
ROE(5y)20.76%
ROIC(3y)3.98%
ROIC(5y)6.2%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 11.23%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.86% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of PGR has declined.
PGR has a Operating Margin of 14.63%. This is in the better half of the industry: PGR outperforms 65.71% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of PGR has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.63% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.23% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y-21.67%
OM growth 5Y-4.38%
PM growth 3Y-22.39%
PM growth 5Y-5.17%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
PGR has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
PGR has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
PGR has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
PGR has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.48. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.48 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PGR has a better Debt to FCF ratio (0.48) than 84.29% of its industry peers.
PGR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.25. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.25, PGR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.29% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.25 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.48 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.96
WACC8.94%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 177.68% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, PGR shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.05% on average per year.
PGR shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 22.67%.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.21% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)177.68%
EPS 3Y-6.48%
EPS 5Y4.05%
EPS Q2Q%71.77%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.67%
Revenue growth 3Y13.34%
Revenue growth 5Y14.21%
Sales Q2Q%24.76%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 16.08% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 16.53% on average per year.
EPS Next Y118.04%
EPS Next 2Y51.13%
EPS Next 3Y33.78%
EPS Next 5Y16.08%
Revenue Next Year22.38%
Revenue Next 2Y19.83%
Revenue Next 3Y16.53%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 18.54, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, PGR is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 62.86% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of PGR to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.73), we can say PGR is valued slightly cheaper.
PGR is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.20.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, PGR is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 64.29% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
PGR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.83.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.54 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.2 |
4.2 Price Multiples
PGR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
PGR's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 9.84 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.61 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PGR has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as PGR's earnings are expected to grow with 33.78% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.16
PEG (5Y)4.58
EPS Next 2Y51.13%
EPS Next 3Y33.78%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
PGR has a yearly dividend return of 0.17%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.33, PGR is paying slightly less dividend.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.17, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.34.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.17% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.19%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
The dividend of PGR decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.19%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
8.56% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PGR. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP8.56%
EPS Next 2Y51.13%
EPS Next 3Y33.78%
PROGRESSIVE CORP
NYSE:PGR (12/20/2024, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 240.27 +0.3 (+0.13%)239.97
+0.26 (+0.11%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners86.97%
Inst Owner Change0.46%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.04%
Market Cap140.58B
Analysts78.46
Price Target283.05 (17.95%)
Short Float %0.74%
Short Ratio1.8
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.17% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.19%
DP8.56%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.46%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.27%
Max EPS beat(2)30.19%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)15.76%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.27%
Max EPS beat(4)30.19%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.3%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)-5.48%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.95%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.8%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.11%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.07%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.07%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.73%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.31%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.44%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.16%
PT rev (1m)2.29%
PT rev (3m)12.14%
EPS NQ rev (1m)3.48%
EPS NQ rev (3m)11.42%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.48%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.54%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.34%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)3.42%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.37%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.69%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.54 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.2 | ||
| P/S | 1.95 | ||
| P/FCF | 9.84 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.66 | ||
| P/B | 5.18 | ||
| P/tB | 5.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.61 |
EPS(TTM)12.94
EY5.39%
EPS(NY)13.96
Fwd EY5.82%
FCF(TTM)24.4
FCFY10.17%
OCF(TTM)24.84
OCFY10.35%
SpS122.84
BVpS46.36
TBVpS46.36
PEG (NY)0.16
PEG (5Y)4.58
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.68% | ||
| ROE | 29.76% | ||
| ROCE | 10.87% | ||
| ROIC | 8.57% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.59% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.28% | ||
| OM | 14.63% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.23% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 19.86% |
ROA(3y)3.32%
ROA(5y)5.2%
ROE(3y)13.89%
ROE(5y)20.76%
ROIC(3y)3.98%
ROIC(5y)6.2%
ROICexc(3y)3.99%
ROICexc(5y)6.21%
ROICexgc(3y)4.43%
ROICexgc(5y)6.94%
ROCE(3y)5.04%
ROCE(5y)7.85%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-22.32%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 3Y-21.77%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.65%
OM growth 3Y-21.67%
OM growth 5Y-4.38%
PM growth 3Y-22.39%
PM growth 5Y-5.17%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.68
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.25 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.48 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.64 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 90.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.36% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 37.96 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 134.57% | ||
| Profit Quality | 176.8% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score8
WACC8.94%
ROIC/WACC0.96
Cap/Depr(3y)81%
Cap/Depr(5y)85.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.5%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.59%
Profit Quality(3y)479.67%
Profit Quality(5y)341.26%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)177.68%
EPS 3Y-6.48%
EPS 5Y4.05%
EPS Q2Q%71.77%
EPS Next Y118.04%
EPS Next 2Y51.13%
EPS Next 3Y33.78%
EPS Next 5Y16.08%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.67%
Revenue growth 3Y13.34%
Revenue growth 5Y14.21%
Sales Q2Q%24.76%
Revenue Next Year22.38%
Revenue Next 2Y19.83%
Revenue Next 3Y16.53%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y185.49%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.21%
EBIT growth 5Y9.21%
EBIT Next Year67.05%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y135.41%
FCF growth 3Y15.86%
FCF growth 5Y11.54%
OCF growth 1Y128.35%
OCF growth 3Y15.51%
OCF growth 5Y11.11%