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PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:PGR - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7433151039 - Common Stock

241.01  -2.67 (-1.1%)

Premarket: 242.02 +1.01 (+0.42%)

Fundamental Rating

5

Taking everything into account, PGR scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. PGR was compared to 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of PGR get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. PGR is showing excellent growth while it is valued at reasonable prices. Keep and eye on this one!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year PGR was profitable.
In the past year PGR had a positive cash flow from operations.
PGR had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years PGR always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
PGR Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFPGR Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

1.2 Ratios

PGR's Return On Assets of 7.68% is amongst the best of the industry. PGR outperforms 90.78% of its industry peers.
PGR has a Return On Equity of 29.76%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PGR outperforms 92.20% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 8.57%, PGR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.78% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for PGR is in line with the industry average of 4.61%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.57%) for PGR is above the 3 year average (3.98%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.68%
ROE 29.76%
ROIC 8.57%
ROA(3y)3.32%
ROA(5y)5.2%
ROE(3y)13.89%
ROE(5y)20.76%
ROIC(3y)3.98%
ROIC(5y)6.2%
PGR Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICPGR Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

With a decent Profit Margin value of 11.23%, PGR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.09% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of PGR has declined.
PGR has a Operating Margin of 14.63%. This is in the better half of the industry: PGR outperforms 64.54% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of PGR has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 14.63%
PM (TTM) 11.23%
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y-21.67%
OM growth 5Y-4.38%
PM growth 3Y-22.39%
PM growth 5Y-5.17%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
PGR Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsPGR Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5 10 15

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4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

PGR has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, PGR has more shares outstanding
PGR has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
PGR Yearly Shares OutstandingPGR Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M
PGR Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsPGR Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.48. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.48 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PGR's Debt to FCF ratio of 0.48 is amongst the best of the industry. PGR outperforms 84.40% of its industry peers.
PGR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.25. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
PGR has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.25. This is in the better half of the industry: PGR outperforms 63.83% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.25
Debt/FCF 0.48
Altman-Z N/A
ROIC/WACC0.95
WACC8.98%
PGR Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFPGR Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5B 10B 15B 20B

2.3 Liquidity

Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
PGR Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesPGR Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2B 4B 6B 8B

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7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

PGR shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 177.68%, which is quite impressive.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.05% on average over the past years.
PGR shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 22.67%.
PGR shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.21% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)177.68%
EPS 3Y-6.48%
EPS 5Y4.05%
EPS Q2Q%71.77%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.67%
Revenue growth 3Y13.34%
Revenue growth 5Y14.21%
Sales Q2Q%24.76%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 16.08% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 16.61% on average per year.
EPS Next Y121.33%
EPS Next 2Y51.68%
EPS Next 3Y33.8%
EPS Next 5Y16.08%
Revenue Next Year22.12%
Revenue Next 2Y19.45%
Revenue Next 3Y16.61%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
PGR Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesPGR Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 20B 40B 60B 80B
PGR Yearly EPS VS EstimatesPGR Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 5 10

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 18.63, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, PGR is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 63.12% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
PGR's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 28.29.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.14, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
63.83% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than PGR, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 24.44. PGR is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.63
Fwd PE 17.14
PGR Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsPGR Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as PGR.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as PGR.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 9.88
EV/EBITDA 13.68
PGR Per share dataPGR EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60 80 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PGR's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of PGR may justify a higher PE ratio.
PGR's earnings are expected to grow with 33.80% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.15
PEG (5Y)4.6
EPS Next 2Y51.68%
EPS Next 3Y33.8%

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3

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a yearly dividend of 0.16%, PGR is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.99, PGR is paying slightly less dividend.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.16, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.28.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.16%

5.2 History

The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.19%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PGR has decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.19%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
PGR Yearly Dividends per sharePGR Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2 4 6 8

5.3 Sustainability

PGR pays out 8.56% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP8.56%
EPS Next 2Y51.68%
EPS Next 3Y33.8%
PGR Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendPGR Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
PGR Dividend Payout.PGR Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.PGR Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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PROGRESSIVE CORP

NYSE:PGR (1/21/2025, 8:20:23 PM)

Premarket: 242.02 +1.01 (+0.42%)

241.01

-2.67 (-1.1%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)10-15 2024-10-15/bmo
Earnings (Next)N/A N/A
Inst Owners86.97%
Inst Owner Change-0.15%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.42%
Market Cap141.19B
Analysts77.69
Price Target290.7 (20.62%)
Short Float %0.96%
Short Ratio2.22
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.16%
Yearly Dividend0.47
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.19%
DP8.56%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date01-10 2025-01-10 (4.5)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.46%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.27%
Max EPS beat(2)30.19%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)15.76%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.27%
Max EPS beat(4)30.19%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.3%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)-5.48%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.95%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.8%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.11%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.07%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.07%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.73%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.31%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.44%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.16%
PT rev (1m)2.7%
PT rev (3m)8.62%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)11.42%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)8.15%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)3.42%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.17%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.63
Fwd PE 17.14
P/S 1.96
P/FCF 9.88
P/OCF 9.7
P/B 5.2
P/tB 5.2
EV/EBITDA 13.68
EPS(TTM)12.94
EY5.37%
EPS(NY)14.06
Fwd EY5.83%
FCF(TTM)24.4
FCFY10.12%
OCF(TTM)24.84
OCFY10.3%
SpS122.84
BVpS46.36
TBVpS46.36
PEG (NY)0.15
PEG (5Y)4.6
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.68%
ROE 29.76%
ROCE 10.87%
ROIC 8.57%
ROICexc 8.59%
ROICexgc 9.28%
OM 14.63%
PM (TTM) 11.23%
GM N/A
FCFM 19.86%
ROA(3y)3.32%
ROA(5y)5.2%
ROE(3y)13.89%
ROE(5y)20.76%
ROIC(3y)3.98%
ROIC(5y)6.2%
ROICexc(3y)3.99%
ROICexc(5y)6.21%
ROICexgc(3y)4.43%
ROICexgc(5y)6.94%
ROCE(3y)5.04%
ROCE(5y)7.85%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-22.32%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-5.04%
ROICexc growth 3Y-21.77%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.65%
OM growth 3Y-21.67%
OM growth 5Y-4.38%
PM growth 3Y-22.39%
PM growth 5Y-5.17%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.68
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.25
Debt/FCF 0.48
Debt/EBITDA 0.64
Cap/Depr 90.3%
Cap/Sales 0.36%
Interest Coverage 37.96
Cash Conversion 134.57%
Profit Quality 176.8%
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
Altman-Z N/A
F-Score8
WACC8.98%
ROIC/WACC0.95
Cap/Depr(3y)81%
Cap/Depr(5y)85.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.5%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.59%
Profit Quality(3y)479.67%
Profit Quality(5y)341.26%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)177.68%
EPS 3Y-6.48%
EPS 5Y4.05%
EPS Q2Q%71.77%
EPS Next Y121.33%
EPS Next 2Y51.68%
EPS Next 3Y33.8%
EPS Next 5Y16.08%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.67%
Revenue growth 3Y13.34%
Revenue growth 5Y14.21%
Sales Q2Q%24.76%
Revenue Next Year22.12%
Revenue Next 2Y19.45%
Revenue Next 3Y16.61%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y185.49%
EBIT growth 3Y-11.21%
EBIT growth 5Y9.21%
EBIT Next Year67.05%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y135.41%
FCF growth 3Y15.86%
FCF growth 5Y11.54%
OCF growth 1Y128.35%
OCF growth 3Y15.51%
OCF growth 5Y11.11%