POTBELLY CORP (PBPB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:PBPB - Nasdaq - US73754Y1001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall PBPB gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated PBPB against 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. PBPB has an average financial health and profitability rating. PBPB is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PBPB was profitable.
In the past year PBPB had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: PBPB reported negative net income in multiple years.
In multiple years PBPB reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
PBPB has a Return On Assets of 16.18%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PBPB outperforms 94.74% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 73.04%, PBPB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.74% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB has a Return On Invested Capital (6.32%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for PBPB is significantly below the industry average of 13.81%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (6.32%) for PBPB is above the 3 year average (4.13%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.18% | ||
| ROE | 73.04% | ||
| ROIC | 6.32% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
PBPB has a Profit Margin of 9.24%. This is in the better half of the industry: PBPB outperforms 72.18% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 3.12%, PBPB is doing worse than 69.92% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 74.37%, PBPB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.23% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of PBPB has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.24% | ||
| GM | 74.37% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), PBPB is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, PBPB has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for PBPB has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for PBPB has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.32, we must say that PBPB is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
PBPB has a Altman-Z score (1.32) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of PBPB is 0.62, which is an excellent value as it means it would take PBPB, only 0.62 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
PBPB's Debt to FCF ratio of 0.62 is amongst the best of the industry. PBPB outperforms 90.98% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.08 indicates that PBPB is not too dependend on debt financing.
PBPB has a better Debt to Equity ratio (0.08) than 83.46% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.32 |
ROIC/WACC0.72
WACC8.81%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.53 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
PBPB has a worse Current ratio (0.53) than 73.68% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.48 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.48, PBPB is doing worse than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.48 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
PBPB shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 107.14%, which is quite impressive.
Looking at the last year, PBPB shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -3.96% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.46% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 10.63% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, PBPB will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.61% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 42.24, which means the current valuation is very expensive for PBPB.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of PBPB to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.15), we can say PBPB is valued expensively.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 33.36 indicates a quite expensive valuation of PBPB.
PBPB's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.60. PBPB is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42.24 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.36 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as PBPB.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 50.73 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.88 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for PBPB!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
12.25
-0.06 (-0.49%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.05%
Inst Owner Change4.35%
Ins Owners10.09%
Ins Owner Change3.16%
Market Cap369.58M
Analysts80
Price Target17.34 (41.55%)
Short Float %4.04%
Short Ratio4.39
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)98.04%
Min EPS beat(2)96.08%
Max EPS beat(2)100%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)77.84%
Min EPS beat(4)30.72%
Max EPS beat(4)100%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.75%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.45%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.3%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.5%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.55%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.27%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.86%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.88%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42.24 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.36 | ||
| P/S | 0.79 | ||
| P/FCF | 50.73 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.39 | ||
| P/B | 6.28 | ||
| P/tB | 6.92 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.88 |
EPS(TTM)0.29
EY2.37%
EPS(NY)0.37
Fwd EY3%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY1.97%
OCF(TTM)0.91
OCFY7.47%
SpS15.42
BVpS1.95
TBVpS1.77
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.18% | ||
| ROE | 73.04% | ||
| ROCE | 7.35% | ||
| ROIC | 6.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.83% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.04% | ||
| OM | 3.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.24% | ||
| GM | 74.37% | ||
| FCFM | 1.57% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)4.69%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.85%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)4.81%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.75
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 151.84% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 30.11 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 98.96% | ||
| Profit Quality | 16.94% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.48 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.32 |
F-Score7
WACC8.81%
ROIC/WACC0.72
Cap/Depr(3y)121.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)95.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)47.56%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y39.81%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year171.84%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-20.82%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-36.94%
OCF growth 1Y41.1%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y1.59%