POTBELLY CORP (PBPB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:PBPB - Nasdaq - US73754Y1001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to PBPB. PBPB was compared to 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While PBPB is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. PBPB has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
PBPB had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year PBPB had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: PBPB reported negative net income in multiple years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: PBPB reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 14.85%, PBPB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 93.13% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB has a better Return On Equity (72.66%) than 96.95% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a Return On Invested Capital (5.64%) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 14.85% | ||
| ROE | 72.66% | ||
| ROIC | 5.64% |
ROA(3y)-1.87%
ROA(5y)-7.18%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
PBPB's Profit Margin of 8.14% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. PBPB outperforms 69.47% of its industry peers.
With a Operating Margin value of 2.57%, PBPB is not doing good in the industry: 69.47% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
PBPB's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
PBPB has a better Gross Margin (73.85%) than 90.84% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of PBPB has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.57% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.14% | ||
| GM | 73.85% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y26.28%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.46%
GM growth 5Y-0.26%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), PBPB is destroying value.
PBPB has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, PBPB has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for PBPB is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
PBPB has an Altman-Z score of 1.27. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
PBPB has a Altman-Z score (1.27) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of PBPB is 13.22, which is on the high side as it means it would take PBPB, 13.22 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
PBPB has a Debt to FCF ratio (13.22) which is in line with its industry peers.
PBPB has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.06. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With an excellent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.06, PBPB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 84.73% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.22 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.27 |
ROIC/WACC0.56
WACC10.1%
2.3 Liquidity
PBPB has a Current Ratio of 0.49. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.49, PBPB is not doing good in the industry: 74.81% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.43 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
PBPB has a worse Quick ratio (0.43) than 75.57% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for PBPB have decreased strongly by -13.64% in the last year.
The earnings per share for PBPB have been decreasing by -12.94% on average. This is quite bad
PBPB shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -2.92%.
Measured over the past years, PBPB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 3.06% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-12.94%
EPS Q2Q%100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.92%
Revenue growth 3Y19.04%
Revenue growth 5Y3.06%
Sales Q2Q%-4.68%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, PBPB will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 34.15% on average per year.
PBPB is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 0.44% yearly.
EPS Next Y61.5%
EPS Next 2Y38.6%
EPS Next 3Y34.15%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-5.8%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.18%
Revenue Next 3Y0.44%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 63.53, PBPB can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as PBPB.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.63. PBPB is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 41.89, which means the current valuation is very expensive for PBPB.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, PBPB is valued a bit more expensive than 60.31% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of PBPB to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.68), we can say PBPB is valued expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 63.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 41.89 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as PBPB.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, PBPB is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 65.65% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 1591.96 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.35 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PBPB's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as PBPB's earnings are expected to grow with 34.15% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y38.6%
EPS Next 3Y34.15%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
PBPB does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
12.07
-0.57 (-4.51%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.19%
Inst Owner Change-94.51%
Ins Owners8.75%
Ins Owner Change0.11%
Market Cap361.38M
Analysts80
Price Target15.64 (29.58%)
Short Float %3.18%
Short Ratio4.38
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)57.63%
Min EPS beat(2)30.72%
Max EPS beat(2)84.54%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)64.76%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.64%
Max EPS beat(4)178.43%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.3%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.06%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.3%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.72%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.26%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.43%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)44.44%
EPS NQ rev (3m)44.44%
EPS NY rev (1m)9.2%
EPS NY rev (3m)31.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.98%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.09%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.61%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 63.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 41.89 | ||
| P/S | 0.77 | ||
| P/FCF | 1591.96 | ||
| P/OCF | 20.02 | ||
| P/B | 6.83 | ||
| P/tB | 7.62 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.35 |
EPS(TTM)0.19
EY1.57%
EPS(NY)0.29
Fwd EY2.39%
FCF(TTM)0.01
FCFY0.06%
OCF(TTM)0.6
OCFY4.99%
SpS15.76
BVpS1.77
TBVpS1.58
PEG (NY)1.03
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 14.85% | ||
| ROE | 72.66% | ||
| ROCE | 6.27% | ||
| ROIC | 5.64% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.99% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.17% | ||
| OM | 2.57% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.14% | ||
| GM | 73.85% | ||
| FCFM | 0.05% |
ROA(3y)-1.87%
ROA(5y)-7.18%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y21.02%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y21.44%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y26.28%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.46%
GM growth 5Y-0.26%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.82
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.22 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.12 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 142.55% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.78% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 7.11 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 73.34% | ||
| Profit Quality | 0.59% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.27 |
F-Score5
WACC10.1%
ROIC/WACC0.56
Cap/Depr(3y)89.43%
Cap/Depr(5y)77.67%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.57%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.99%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-12.94%
EPS Q2Q%100%
EPS Next Y61.5%
EPS Next 2Y38.6%
EPS Next 3Y34.15%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.92%
Revenue growth 3Y19.04%
Revenue growth 5Y3.06%
Sales Q2Q%-4.68%
Revenue Next Year-5.8%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.18%
Revenue Next 3Y0.44%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-6.87%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y30.15%
EBIT Next Year200.63%
EBIT Next 3Y58.45%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y107.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-23.98%
OCF growth 1Y448.54%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y-8.86%