POTBELLY CORP (PBPB)
US73754Y1001 - Common Stock
PBPB gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While PBPB is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. PBPB is valued expensive and it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
PBPB had positive earnings in the past year.
PBPB had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: PBPB reported negative net income in multiple years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: PBPB reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
PBPB has a better Return On Assets (14.85%) than 93.85% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of PBPB (72.66%) is better than 96.92% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a Return On Invested Capital (5.64%) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 14.85% | ||
| ROE | 72.66% | ||
| ROIC | 5.64% |
ROA(3y)-1.87%
ROA(5y)-7.18%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
PBPB's Profit Margin of 8.14% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. PBPB outperforms 69.23% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 2.57%, PBPB is doing worse than 69.23% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of PBPB has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 73.85%, PBPB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.77% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.57% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.14% | ||
| GM | 73.85% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y26.28%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.46%
GM growth 5Y-0.26%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
PBPB has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for PBPB has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for PBPB has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
PBPB has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
PBPB has an Altman-Z score of 1.05. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.05, PBPB is doing worse than 66.92% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.22. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as PBPB would need 13.22 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of PBPB (13.22) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
PBPB has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.06. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With an excellent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.06, PBPB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 84.62% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.22 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.05 |
ROIC/WACC0.57
WACC9.81%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.49 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
PBPB has a worse Current ratio (0.49) than 75.38% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.43 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.43, PBPB is doing worse than 75.38% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for PBPB have decreased strongly by -13.64% in the last year.
PBPB shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -12.94% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -2.92% in the past year.
PBPB shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 3.06% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-12.94%
EPS Q2Q%100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.92%
Revenue growth 3Y19.04%
Revenue growth 5Y3.06%
Sales Q2Q%-4.68%
3.2 Future
PBPB is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 42.83% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, PBPB will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.28% on average per year.
EPS Next Y47.9%
EPS Next 2Y42.83%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-6.03%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
PBPB is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 50.32.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.41, PBPB is valued quite expensively.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 31.24, the valuation of PBPB can be described as expensive.
PBPB's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
PBPB's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit more expensive than the S&P500 average which is at 23.69.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 50.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 31.24 |
4.2 Price Multiples
PBPB's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, PBPB is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 65.38% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 1260.91 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PBPB's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PBPB's earnings are expected to grow with 42.83% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y42.83%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for PBPB!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
POTBELLY CORP
NASDAQ:PBPB (1/3/2025, 8:00:02 PM)
After market: 9.56 0 (0%)9.56
+0.19 (+2.03%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.65%
Inst Owner Change-1.98%
Ins Owners8.5%
Ins Owner Change-0.07%
Market Cap286.23M
Analysts80
Price Target15.64 (63.6%)
Short Float %2.46%
Short Ratio4.43
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)57.63%
Min EPS beat(2)30.72%
Max EPS beat(2)84.54%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)64.76%
Min EPS beat(4)-34.64%
Max EPS beat(4)178.43%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.3%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.06%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.3%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.72%
Revenue beat(12)1
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.26%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.43%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-43.75%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)20.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.48%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.32%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 50.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 31.24 | ||
| P/S | 0.61 | ||
| P/FCF | 1260.91 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.86 | ||
| P/B | 5.41 | ||
| P/tB | 6.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3 |
EPS(TTM)0.19
EY1.99%
EPS(NY)0.31
Fwd EY3.2%
FCF(TTM)0.01
FCFY0.08%
OCF(TTM)0.6
OCFY6.31%
SpS15.76
BVpS1.77
TBVpS1.58
PEG (NY)1.05
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 14.85% | ||
| ROE | 72.66% | ||
| ROCE | 6.27% | ||
| ROIC | 5.64% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.99% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.17% | ||
| OM | 2.57% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.14% | ||
| GM | 73.85% | ||
| FCFM | 0.05% |
ROA(3y)-1.87%
ROA(5y)-7.18%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y21.02%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y21.44%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y26.28%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.46%
GM growth 5Y-0.26%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.82
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.22 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.12 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 142.55% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.78% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 7.11 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 73.34% | ||
| Profit Quality | 0.59% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.05 |
F-Score5
WACC9.81%
ROIC/WACC0.57
Cap/Depr(3y)89.43%
Cap/Depr(5y)77.67%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.57%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.99%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.64%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y-12.94%
EPS Q2Q%100%
EPS Next Y47.9%
EPS Next 2Y42.83%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.92%
Revenue growth 3Y19.04%
Revenue growth 5Y3.06%
Sales Q2Q%-4.68%
Revenue Next Year-6.03%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.28%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-6.87%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y30.15%
EBIT Next Year203.74%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y107.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-23.98%
OCF growth 1Y448.54%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y-8.86%