POTBELLY CORP (PBPB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:PBPB - Nasdaq - US73754Y1001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to PBPB. PBPB was compared to 136 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. There are concerns on the financial health of PBPB while its profitability can be described as average. While showing a medium growth rate, PBPB is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
PBPB had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year PBPB had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years PBPB reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In multiple years PBPB reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
PBPB's Return On Assets of 15.31% is amongst the best of the industry. PBPB outperforms 94.12% of its industry peers.
PBPB's Return On Equity of 69.01% is amongst the best of the industry. PBPB outperforms 97.06% of its industry peers.
PBPB's Return On Invested Capital of 6.60% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. PBPB outperforms 58.09% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for PBPB is significantly below the industry average of 15.70%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (6.60%) for PBPB is above the 3 year average (4.13%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 15.31% | ||
| ROE | 69.01% | ||
| ROIC | 6.6% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of PBPB (8.71%) is better than 69.12% of its industry peers.
With a Operating Margin value of 3.28%, PBPB is not doing good in the industry: 69.12% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
PBPB has a Gross Margin of 74.05%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PBPB outperforms 91.18% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of PBPB has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.71% | ||
| GM | 74.05% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
PBPB has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, PBPB has more shares outstanding
PBPB has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for PBPB has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
PBPB has an Altman-Z score of 0.96. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of PBPB (0.96) is worse than 68.38% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a debt to FCF ratio of 10.55. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as PBPB would need 10.55 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PBPB's Debt to FCF ratio of 10.55 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. PBPB outperforms 58.09% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.07 indicates that PBPB is not too dependend on debt financing.
With an excellent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.07, PBPB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.03% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.55 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.96 |
ROIC/WACC0.75
WACC8.83%
2.3 Liquidity
PBPB has a Current Ratio of 0.51. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
PBPB has a worse Current ratio (0.51) than 73.53% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a Quick Ratio of 0.51. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
PBPB has a worse Quick ratio (0.45) than 72.06% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.45 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 100.00% over the past year.
Looking at the last year, PBPB shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.87% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, PBPB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.46% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)100%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%550%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.87%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%-7.25%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, PBPB will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 10.63% on average per year.
PBPB is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.36% yearly.
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year3.16%
Revenue Next 2Y4.36%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 26.70, which means the current valuation is very expensive for PBPB.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
PBPB's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 28.29.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 29.45, the valuation of PBPB can be described as expensive.
PBPB's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
PBPB's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit more expensive than the S&P500 average which is at 21.08.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.7 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.45 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, PBPB is valued a bit cheaper than 68.38% of the companies in the same industry.
65.44% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than PBPB, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 637.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
PBPB does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
8.01
+0.12 (+1.52%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.19%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners8.75%
Ins Owner Change0.25%
Market Cap241.66M
Analysts80
Price Target17.34 (116.48%)
Short Float %3.27%
Short Ratio3
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)90.31%
Min EPS beat(2)84.54%
Max EPS beat(2)96.08%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)97.44%
Min EPS beat(4)30.72%
Max EPS beat(4)178.43%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.02%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.75%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.3%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.3%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.78%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.63%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.17%
PT rev (1m)10.87%
PT rev (3m)10.87%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-133.33%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.6%
EPS NY rev (3m)-11.11%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.74%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.86%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.47%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.28%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.7 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.45 | ||
| P/S | 0.52 | ||
| P/FCF | 637.63 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.29 | ||
| P/B | 4.14 | ||
| P/tB | 4.57 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4 |
EPS(TTM)0.3
EY3.75%
EPS(NY)0.27
Fwd EY3.4%
FCF(TTM)0.01
FCFY0.16%
OCF(TTM)0.65
OCFY8.14%
SpS15.33
BVpS1.94
TBVpS1.75
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 15.31% | ||
| ROE | 69.01% | ||
| ROCE | 7.68% | ||
| ROIC | 6.6% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.01% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.22% | ||
| OM | 3.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.71% | ||
| GM | 74.05% | ||
| FCFM | 0.08% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)4.69%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.85%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)4.81%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.76
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.55 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 152.21% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.17% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 21.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 70.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 0.94% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.45 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.96 |
F-Score6
WACC8.83%
ROIC/WACC0.75
Cap/Depr(3y)121.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)95.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)47.56%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)100%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%550%
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.87%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%-7.25%
Revenue Next Year3.16%
Revenue Next 2Y4.36%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y35.79%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year171.44%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-84.43%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-36.94%
OCF growth 1Y0.9%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y1.59%