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OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDI (OLLI) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:OLLI - Nasdaq - US6811161099 - Common Stock

111.27  -2.39 (-2.1%)

After market: 110.84 -0.43 (-0.39%)

Fundamental Rating

6

Overall OLLI gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated OLLI against 32 industry peers in the Broadline Retail industry. OLLI is in great health and has no worries on liquidiy or solvency at all, but the profibility rating is only average. OLLI shows excellent growth, but is valued quite expensive already. This makes OLLI very considerable for growth investing!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year OLLI was profitable.
In the past year OLLI had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years OLLI has always been profitable.
OLLI had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
OLLI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFOLLI Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of OLLI (8.41%) is better than 77.42% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of OLLI (12.84%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 9.13%, OLLI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.97% of the companies in the same industry.
OLLI had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.78%. This is below the industry average of 11.22%.
The 3 year average ROIC (7.78%) for OLLI is below the current ROIC(9.13%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 8.41%
ROE 12.84%
ROIC 9.13%
ROA(3y)6.97%
ROA(5y)8.37%
ROE(3y)10.6%
ROE(5y)12.66%
ROIC(3y)7.78%
ROIC(5y)8.95%
OLLI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICOLLI Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.22%, OLLI belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 87.10% of the companies in the same industry.
OLLI's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
OLLI has a Operating Margin of 11.51%. This is amongst the best in the industry. OLLI outperforms 83.87% of its industry peers.
OLLI's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
OLLI has a Gross Margin (40.20%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of OLLI has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 11.51%
PM (TTM) 9.22%
GM 40.2%
OM growth 3Y-10.95%
OM growth 5Y-3.67%
PM growth 3Y-13.68%
PM growth 5Y-4.52%
GM growth 3Y-0.34%
GM growth 5Y-0.25%
OLLI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsOLLI Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30 40

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7

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so OLLI is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for OLLI has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
OLLI has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
OLLI has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
OLLI Yearly Shares OutstandingOLLI Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M
OLLI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsOLLI Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 7.18 indicates that OLLI is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
OLLI has a Altman-Z score of 7.18. This is amongst the best in the industry. OLLI outperforms 90.32% of its industry peers.
OLLI has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.02. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.02 years to pay back of all of its debts.
OLLI has a better Debt to FCF ratio (0.02) than 96.77% of its industry peers.
OLLI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.00. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With an excellent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.00, OLLI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 80.65% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0.02
Altman-Z 7.18
ROIC/WACC0.99
WACC9.21%
OLLI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFOLLI Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 2.91 indicates that OLLI has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
OLLI has a better Current ratio (2.91) than 90.32% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.00 indicates that OLLI may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
OLLI has a Quick ratio of 1.00. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: OLLI outperforms 48.39% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.91
Quick Ratio 1
OLLI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesOLLI Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M

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7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 32.27% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, OLLI shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 9.53% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, OLLI shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 12.48% in the last year.
OLLI shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.11% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)32.27%
EPS 3Y-2.72%
EPS 5Y9.53%
EPS Q2Q%13.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.48%
Revenue growth 3Y5.15%
Revenue growth 5Y11.11%
Sales Q2Q%7.79%

3.2 Future

OLLI is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 14.27% yearly.
OLLI is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 10.65% yearly.
EPS Next Y15.63%
EPS Next 2Y14.99%
EPS Next 3Y14.27%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.39%
Revenue Next 2Y10.39%
Revenue Next 3Y10.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
OLLI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesOLLI Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
OLLI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesOLLI Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 1 2 3 4

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 33.52, the valuation of OLLI can be described as expensive.
OLLI's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.19. OLLI is around the same levels.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 29.02, the valuation of OLLI can be described as expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as OLLI.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 24.37. OLLI is around the same levels.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 33.52
Fwd PE 29.02
OLLI Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsOLLI Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

OLLI's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, OLLI is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 64.52% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 81.05
EV/EBITDA 21.59
OLLI Per share dataOLLI EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates OLLI does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of OLLI may justify a higher PE ratio.
OLLI's earnings are expected to grow with 14.27% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)2.14
PEG (5Y)3.52
EPS Next 2Y14.99%
EPS Next 3Y14.27%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

OLLI does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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OLLIE'S BARGAIN OUTLET HOLDI

NASDAQ:OLLI (1/22/2025, 8:00:02 PM)

After market: 110.84 -0.43 (-0.39%)

111.27

-2.39 (-2.1%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryBroadline Retail
Earnings (Last)12-10 2024-12-10/bmo
Earnings (Next)N/A N/A
Inst Owners105.65%
Inst Owner Change0.31%
Ins Owners0.27%
Ins Owner Change-0.31%
Market Cap6.82B
Analysts81.9
Price Target126.96 (14.1%)
Short Float %5.08%
Short Ratio2.61
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1%
Min EPS beat(2)-2%
Max EPS beat(2)0%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)3.3%
Min EPS beat(4)-2%
Max EPS beat(4)10.8%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)4.77%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.37%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)-2.55%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.38%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.85%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.09%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.04%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.03%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.09%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.45%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.65%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.67%
PT rev (1m)19.11%
PT rev (3m)22.03%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.34%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 33.52
Fwd PE 29.02
P/S 3.03
P/FCF 81.05
P/OCF 30.53
P/B 4.22
P/tB 7.24
EV/EBITDA 21.59
EPS(TTM)3.32
EY2.98%
EPS(NY)3.83
Fwd EY3.45%
FCF(TTM)1.37
FCFY1.23%
OCF(TTM)3.64
OCFY3.28%
SpS36.77
BVpS26.39
TBVpS15.36
PEG (NY)2.14
PEG (5Y)3.52
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 8.41%
ROE 12.84%
ROCE 12.05%
ROIC 9.13%
ROICexc 10.63%
ROICexgc 16.74%
OM 11.51%
PM (TTM) 9.22%
GM 40.2%
FCFM 3.73%
ROA(3y)6.97%
ROA(5y)8.37%
ROE(3y)10.6%
ROE(5y)12.66%
ROIC(3y)7.78%
ROIC(5y)8.95%
ROICexc(3y)9.25%
ROICexc(5y)10.81%
ROICexgc(3y)16.56%
ROICexgc(5y)20.94%
ROCE(3y)10.26%
ROCE(5y)11.8%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-19.7%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-16.23%
ROICexc growth 3Y-13.65%
ROICexc growth 5Y-3.74%
OM growth 3Y-10.95%
OM growth 5Y-3.67%
PM growth 3Y-13.68%
PM growth 5Y-4.52%
GM growth 3Y-0.34%
GM growth 5Y-0.25%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.91
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0.02
Debt/EBITDA 0
Cap/Depr 338.92%
Cap/Sales 6.18%
Interest Coverage 597.77
Cash Conversion 74.32%
Profit Quality 40.51%
Current Ratio 2.91
Quick Ratio 1
Altman-Z 7.18
F-Score8
WACC9.21%
ROIC/WACC0.99
Cap/Depr(3y)225.6%
Cap/Depr(5y)250.56%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.58%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.58%
Profit Quality(3y)46.31%
Profit Quality(5y)59.05%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)32.27%
EPS 3Y-2.72%
EPS 5Y9.53%
EPS Q2Q%13.73%
EPS Next Y15.63%
EPS Next 2Y14.99%
EPS Next 3Y14.27%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.48%
Revenue growth 3Y5.15%
Revenue growth 5Y11.11%
Sales Q2Q%7.79%
Revenue Next Year8.39%
Revenue Next 2Y10.39%
Revenue Next 3Y10.65%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y31.18%
EBIT growth 3Y-6.37%
EBIT growth 5Y7.04%
EBIT Next Year36.62%
EBIT Next 3Y20.15%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y8513.1%
FCF growth 3Y-26.73%
FCF growth 5Y20.18%
OCF growth 1Y415.77%
OCF growth 3Y-11.02%
OCF growth 5Y15.08%