NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:NSC • US6558441084

Current stock price

281.09 USD
+2.9 (+1.04%)
At close:
284.18 USD
+3.09 (+1.1%)
After Hours:

This NSC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

7

1. NSC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year NSC was profitable.
  • In the past year NSC had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • In the past 5 years NSC has always been profitable.
  • NSC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
NSC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFNSC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

1.2 Ratios

  • With a decent Return On Assets value of 6.34%, NSC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 18.46%, NSC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
  • NSC's Return On Invested Capital of 7.97% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. NSC outperforms 71.43% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for NSC is in line with the industry average of 7.14%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.34%
ROE 18.46%
ROIC 7.97%
ROA(3y)5.57%
ROA(5y)6.58%
ROE(3y)17.01%
ROE(5y)19.74%
ROIC(3y)8.31%
ROIC(5y)9.01%
NSC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICNSC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 23.56%, NSC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 88.10% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of NSC has grown nicely.
  • With an excellent Operating Margin value of 34.52%, NSC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
  • NSC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
  • With a decent Gross Margin value of 49.40%, NSC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of NSC has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 34.52%
PM (TTM) 23.56%
GM 49.4%
OM growth 3Y-2.93%
OM growth 5Y-0.05%
PM growth 3Y-2.78%
PM growth 5Y2.79%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y-0.02%
NSC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsNSC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30 40 50

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3

2. NSC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), NSC is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for NSC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, NSC has less shares outstanding
  • The debt/assets ratio for NSC has been reduced compared to a year ago.
NSC Yearly Shares OutstandingNSC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M
NSC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsNSC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B 40B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.25 indicates that NSC is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 2.25, NSC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • NSC has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.92. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as NSC would need 7.92 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 7.92, NSC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
  • NSC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.06. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • NSC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.06. This is in the lower half of the industry: NSC underperforms 73.81% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.06
Debt/FCF 7.92
Altman-Z 2.25
ROIC/WACC0.77
WACC10.3%
NSC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFNSC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.85 indicates that NSC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • NSC's Current ratio of 0.85 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. NSC is outperformed by 71.43% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.78 indicates that NSC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.78, NSC is doing worse than 73.81% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.85
Quick Ratio 0.78
NSC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesNSC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. NSC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 5.57% over the past year.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.21% on average over the past years.
  • NSC shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 0.47%.
  • NSC shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.47% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.57%
EPS 3Y-3.48%
EPS 5Y6.21%
EPS Q2Q%5.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.47%
Revenue growth 3Y-1.5%
Revenue growth 5Y4.47%
Sales Q2Q%-1.65%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.05% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
  • NSC is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.58% yearly.
EPS Next Y-2.19%
EPS Next 2Y4.53%
EPS Next 3Y6.19%
EPS Next 5Y8.05%
Revenue Next Year1.99%
Revenue Next 2Y3.38%
Revenue Next 3Y3.69%
Revenue Next 5Y4.58%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
NSC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesNSC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 5B 10B 15B
NSC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesNSC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 5 10 15 20

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4

4. NSC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 22.49, NSC is valued on the expensive side.
  • 71.43% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NSC, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.23, NSC is valued at the same level.
  • NSC is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.99.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NSC indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: NSC is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.42. NSC is around the same levels.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.49
Fwd PE 22.99
NSC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsNSC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80 100

4.2 Price Multiples

  • NSC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • 69.05% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NSC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 29.26
EV/EBITDA 14.06
NSC Per share dataNSC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • NSC has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.62
EPS Next 2Y4.53%
EPS Next 3Y6.19%

More info and screens

Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

7

5. NSC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.94%, NSC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.75, NSC pays a better dividend. On top of this NSC pays more dividend than 88.10% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.89, NSC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.94%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of NSC grows each year by 7.45%, which is quite nice.
  • NSC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • NSC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.45%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years23
NSC Yearly Dividends per shareNSC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 2 3 4 5

5.3 Sustainability

  • 42.33% of the earnings are spent on dividend by NSC. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
  • The dividend of NSC is growing around the same rate as the earnings are growing. If this keeps up the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP42.33%
EPS Next 2Y4.53%
EPS Next 3Y6.19%
NSC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendNSC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
NSC Dividend Payout.NSC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.NSC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

More info and screens

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NSC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP

NYSE:NSC (3/20/2026, 8:13:25 PM)

After market: 284.18 +3.09 (+1.1%)

281.09

+2.9 (+1.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryGround Transportation
Earnings (Last)01-29
Earnings (Next)04-21
Inst Owners78.12%
Inst Owner Change1.93%
Ins Owners0.03%
Ins Owner Change1.16%
Market Cap63.12B
Revenue(TTM)12.18B
Net Income(TTM)2.87B
Analysts69.63
Price Target314.85 (12.01%)
Short Float %4.75%
Short Ratio8.4
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.94%
Yearly Dividend5.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.45%
DP42.33%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-Date02-06
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)8.97%
Min EPS beat(2)2.49%
Max EPS beat(2)15.45%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)3.89%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.39%
Max EPS beat(4)15.45%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.73%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.36%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1.52%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.88%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.18%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.88%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.43%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.45%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.45%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.65%
PT rev (1m)0.4%
PT rev (3m)-0.68%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.99%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.2%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.56%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.49
Fwd PE 22.99
P/S 5.18
P/FCF 29.26
P/OCF 14.47
P/B 4.06
P/tB 4.06
EV/EBITDA 14.06
EPS(TTM)12.5
EY4.45%
EPS(NY)12.23
Fwd EY4.35%
FCF(TTM)9.61
FCFY3.42%
OCF(TTM)19.42
OCFY6.91%
SpS54.24
BVpS69.23
TBVpS69.23
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.62
Graham Number139.54
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.34%
ROE 18.46%
ROCE 10.14%
ROIC 7.97%
ROICexc 8.27%
ROICexgc 8.27%
OM 34.52%
PM (TTM) 23.56%
GM 49.4%
FCFM 17.71%
ROA(3y)5.57%
ROA(5y)6.58%
ROE(3y)17.01%
ROE(5y)19.74%
ROIC(3y)8.31%
ROIC(5y)9.01%
ROICexc(3y)8.65%
ROICexc(5y)9.29%
ROICexgc(3y)8.65%
ROICexgc(5y)9.29%
ROCE(3y)10.57%
ROCE(5y)11.47%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-7.82%
ROICexgc growth 5Y1.52%
ROICexc growth 3Y-7.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.52%
OM growth 3Y-2.93%
OM growth 5Y-0.05%
PM growth 3Y-2.78%
PM growth 5Y2.79%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y-0.02%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.27
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.06
Debt/FCF 7.92
Debt/EBITDA 2.94
Cap/Depr 158.22%
Cap/Sales 18.1%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 77.92%
Profit Quality 75.16%
Current Ratio 0.85
Quick Ratio 0.78
Altman-Z 2.25
F-Score6
WACC10.3%
ROIC/WACC0.77
Cap/Depr(3y)212.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)184.12%
Cap/Sales(3y)23.54%
Cap/Sales(5y)19.82%
Profit Quality(3y)40.58%
Profit Quality(5y)56.81%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.57%
EPS 3Y-3.48%
EPS 5Y6.21%
EPS Q2Q%5.92%
EPS Next Y-2.19%
EPS Next 2Y4.53%
EPS Next 3Y6.19%
EPS Next 5Y8.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.47%
Revenue growth 3Y-1.5%
Revenue growth 5Y4.47%
Sales Q2Q%-1.65%
Revenue Next Year1.99%
Revenue Next 2Y3.38%
Revenue Next 3Y3.69%
Revenue Next 5Y4.58%
EBIT growth 1Y-8.19%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.38%
EBIT growth 5Y4.42%
EBIT Next Year34.01%
EBIT Next 3Y14.92%
EBIT Next 5Y11%
FCF growth 1Y7603.57%
FCF growth 3Y-1.75%
FCF growth 5Y0.13%
OCF growth 1Y7.63%
OCF growth 3Y1.09%
OCF growth 5Y3.7%

NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP / NSC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to NSC.


What is the valuation status of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of NSC stock?

NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for NSC stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) is expected to decline by -2.19% in the next year.


Is the dividend of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP sustainable?

The dividend rating of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 42.33%.