NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation
NYSE:NSC • US6558441084
310.92 USD
-6.91 (-2.17%)
At close: Mar 5, 2026
310.92 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours: 3/5/2026, 8:11:31 PM
This NSC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.
Overall NSC gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated NSC against 42 industry peers in the Ground Transportation industry. NSC scores excellent on profitability, but there are concerns on its financial health. NSC has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate. Finally NSC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. NSC Profitability Analysis
1.1 Basic Checks
- NSC had positive earnings in the past year.
- NSC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- Each year in the past 5 years NSC has been profitable.
- NSC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- With a decent Return On Assets value of 6.34%, NSC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Return On Equity of NSC (18.46%) is better than 83.33% of its industry peers.
- The Return On Invested Capital of NSC (7.97%) is better than 73.81% of its industry peers.
- NSC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.31%. This is in line with the industry average of 7.32%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.34% | ||
| ROE | 18.46% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)5.57%
ROA(5y)6.58%
ROE(3y)17.01%
ROE(5y)19.74%
ROIC(3y)8.31%
ROIC(5y)9.01%
1.3 Margins
- With an excellent Profit Margin value of 23.56%, NSC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 88.10% of the companies in the same industry.
- NSC's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- With an excellent Operating Margin value of 34.52%, NSC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
- NSC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
- With a decent Gross Margin value of 49.40%, NSC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of NSC has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 34.52% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.56% | ||
| GM | 49.4% |
OM growth 3Y-2.93%
OM growth 5Y-0.05%
PM growth 3Y-2.78%
PM growth 5Y2.79%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y-0.02%
2. NSC Health Analysis
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so NSC is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, NSC has less shares outstanding
- The number of shares outstanding for NSC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, NSC has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- NSC has an Altman-Z score of 2.41. This is not the best score and indicates that NSC is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.41, NSC is in line with its industry, outperforming 47.62% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of NSC is 7.92, which is on the high side as it means it would take NSC, 7.92 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- NSC has a better Debt to FCF ratio (7.92) than 71.43% of its industry peers.
- NSC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.06. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- NSC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.06. This is in the lower half of the industry: NSC underperforms 73.81% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.92 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.41 |
ROIC/WACC0.78
WACC10.18%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 0.85 indicates that NSC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- NSC has a Current ratio of 0.85. This is in the lower half of the industry: NSC underperforms 73.81% of its industry peers.
- NSC has a Quick Ratio of 0.85. This is a bad value and indicates that NSC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- With a Quick ratio value of 0.78, NSC is not doing good in the industry: 73.81% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.85 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 |
3. NSC Growth Analysis
3.1 Past
- NSC shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 5.57%.
- NSC shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 6.21% yearly.
- NSC shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 0.47%.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.47% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.57%
EPS 3Y-3.48%
EPS 5Y6.21%
EPS Q2Q%5.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.47%
Revenue growth 3Y-1.5%
Revenue growth 5Y4.47%
Sales Q2Q%-1.65%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.05% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
- NSC is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.58% yearly.
EPS Next Y-0.9%
EPS Next 2Y5.01%
EPS Next 3Y6.67%
EPS Next 5Y8.05%
Revenue Next Year1.97%
Revenue Next 2Y3.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.67%
Revenue Next 5Y4.58%
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. NSC Valuation Analysis
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- With a Price/Earnings ratio of 24.87, NSC is valued on the expensive side.
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, NSC is valued a bit cheaper than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.74, NSC is valued at the same level.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 25.10, the valuation of NSC can be described as expensive.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, NSC is valued a bit cheaper than 64.29% of the companies in the same industry.
- NSC is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 24.82, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.87 | ||
| Fwd PE | 25.1 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of NSC is on the same level as its industry peers.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of NSC indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: NSC is cheaper than 76.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 32.35 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.52 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- NSC has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)4.01
EPS Next 2Y5.01%
EPS Next 3Y6.67%
5. NSC Dividend Analysis
5.1 Amount
- NSC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.73%.
- NSC's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.67. NSC pays more dividend than 88.10% of the companies in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, NSC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.73% |
5.2 History
- On average, the dividend of NSC grows each year by 7.45%, which is quite nice.
- NSC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
- NSC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.45%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
- NSC pays out 42.33% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
- NSC's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP42.33%
EPS Next 2Y5.01%
EPS Next 3Y6.67%
NSC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics
310.92
-6.91 (-2.17%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryGround Transportation
Earnings (Last)01-29 2026-01-29/bmo
Earnings (Next)04-21 2026-04-21/bmo
Inst Owners78.29%
Inst Owner Change1.92%
Ins Owners0.02%
Ins Owner Change1.3%
Market Cap69.78B
Revenue(TTM)12.18B
Net Income(TTM)2.87B
Analysts69.63
Price Target314.85 (1.26%)
Short Float %4.65%
Short Ratio8.96
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.73% |
Yearly Dividend5.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.45%
DP42.33%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-Date02-06 2026-02-06 (1.35)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)8.97%
Min EPS beat(2)2.49%
Max EPS beat(2)15.45%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)3.89%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.39%
Max EPS beat(4)15.45%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.73%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.36%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1.52%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.88%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.18%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.88%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.43%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.45%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.45%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.65%
PT rev (1m)-0.75%
PT rev (3m)-0.98%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.38%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-10.46%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.45%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.9%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.27%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.39%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.69%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.6%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.87 | ||
| Fwd PE | 25.1 | ||
| P/S | 5.73 | ||
| P/FCF | 32.35 | ||
| P/OCF | 16 | ||
| P/B | 4.49 | ||
| P/tB | 4.49 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.52 |
EPS(TTM)12.5
EY4.02%
EPS(NY)12.39
Fwd EY3.98%
FCF(TTM)9.61
FCFY3.09%
OCF(TTM)19.43
OCFY6.25%
SpS54.27
BVpS69.28
TBVpS69.28
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)4.01
Graham Number139.59
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.34% | ||
| ROE | 18.46% | ||
| ROCE | 10.14% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.27% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.27% | ||
| OM | 34.52% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.56% | ||
| GM | 49.4% | ||
| FCFM | 17.71% |
ROA(3y)5.57%
ROA(5y)6.58%
ROE(3y)17.01%
ROE(5y)19.74%
ROIC(3y)8.31%
ROIC(5y)9.01%
ROICexc(3y)8.65%
ROICexc(5y)9.29%
ROICexgc(3y)8.65%
ROICexgc(5y)9.29%
ROCE(3y)10.57%
ROCE(5y)11.47%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-7.82%
ROICexgc growth 5Y1.52%
ROICexc growth 3Y-7.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.52%
OM growth 3Y-2.93%
OM growth 5Y-0.05%
PM growth 3Y-2.78%
PM growth 5Y2.79%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y-0.02%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.92 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.94 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 158.22% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 18.1% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 77.92% | ||
| Profit Quality | 75.16% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.85 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.41 |
F-Score6
WACC10.18%
ROIC/WACC0.78
Cap/Depr(3y)212.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)184.12%
Cap/Sales(3y)23.54%
Cap/Sales(5y)19.82%
Profit Quality(3y)40.58%
Profit Quality(5y)56.81%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.57%
EPS 3Y-3.48%
EPS 5Y6.21%
EPS Q2Q%5.92%
EPS Next Y-0.9%
EPS Next 2Y5.01%
EPS Next 3Y6.67%
EPS Next 5Y8.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.47%
Revenue growth 3Y-1.5%
Revenue growth 5Y4.47%
Sales Q2Q%-1.65%
Revenue Next Year1.97%
Revenue Next 2Y3.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.67%
Revenue Next 5Y4.58%
EBIT growth 1Y-8.19%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.38%
EBIT growth 5Y4.42%
EBIT Next Year34.01%
EBIT Next 3Y14.92%
EBIT Next 5Y11%
FCF growth 1Y7603.57%
FCF growth 3Y-1.75%
FCF growth 5Y0.13%
OCF growth 1Y7.63%
OCF growth 3Y1.09%
OCF growth 5Y3.7%
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP / NSC FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to NSC.
What is the valuation status of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of NSC stock?
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for NSC stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) is expected to decline by -0.9% in the next year.
Is the dividend of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 42.33%.