NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:NOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6655313079 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, NOG scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. NOG was compared to 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While NOG belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. NOG has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
NOG had positive earnings in the past year.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years NOG reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 11.41%, NOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.26% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 26.96%, NOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 89.57% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG has a Return On Invested Capital of 16.57%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NOG outperforms 91.94% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for NOG is in line with the industry average of 23.70%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (16.57%) for NOG is well below the 3 year average (22.03%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that NOG had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 11.41% | ||
| ROE | 26.96% | ||
| ROIC | 16.57% |
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 26.64%, NOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.67% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 41.30%, NOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.26% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 76.13%, NOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 88.15% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 41.3% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 26.64% | ||
| GM | 76.13% |
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
NOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for NOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for NOG has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
NOG has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
NOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.66. This is a bad value and indicates that NOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
NOG has a Altman-Z score of 1.66. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: NOG outperforms 58.29% of its industry peers.
NOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.96. This is a neutral value indicating NOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
NOG has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.96) than 67.77% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
ROIC/WACC1.83
WACC9.06%
2.3 Liquidity
NOG has a Current Ratio of 0.92. This is a bad value and indicates that NOG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
NOG has a Current ratio of 0.92. This is in the lower half of the industry: NOG underperforms 61.61% of its industry peers.
NOG has a Quick Ratio of 0.92. This is a bad value and indicates that NOG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.92, NOG is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.29% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.92 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.92 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for NOG have decreased strongly by -13.26% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, NOG shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 9.73% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, NOG shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 22.77%.
NOG shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 36.34% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.26%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%3.91%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.77%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%51.91%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -8.25% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.74% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-13.9%
EPS Next 2Y-17.36%
EPS Next 3Y-6.26%
EPS Next 5Y-8.25%
Revenue Next Year0.97%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.47%
Revenue Next 3Y1.74%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 5.35 indicates a rather cheap valuation of NOG.
88.15% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NOG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.15. NOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 7.91, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of NOG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NOG indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: NOG is cheaper than 76.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.60), we can say NOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.91 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, NOG is valued cheaper than 89.57% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.86 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
NOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as NOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -6.26% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.55
EPS Next 2Y-17.36%
EPS Next 3Y-6.26%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.12%, NOG is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.66, NOG pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, NOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.12% |
5.2 History
NOG has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
NOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
NOG pays out 25.26% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.26%
EPS Next 2Y-17.36%
EPS Next 3Y-6.26%
28.35
-0.63 (-2.17%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners117.17%
Inst Owner Change2.85%
Ins Owners2.86%
Ins Owner Change0.44%
Market Cap2.80B
Analysts78.67
Price Target37.14 (31.01%)
Short Float %20.87%
Short Ratio9.76
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.12% |
Yearly Dividend1.62
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP25.26%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)8.16%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.4%
Max EPS beat(2)17.71%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)12.63%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.4%
Max EPS beat(4)18.32%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)7.46%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)4.39%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)5.8%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.7%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.21%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)9.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.7%
Max Revenue beat(4)37.46%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.1%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)10.75%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-4.99%
PT rev (1m)-5.94%
PT rev (3m)-21.63%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.34%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.65%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.57%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.42%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.18%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.57%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.91 | ||
| P/S | 1.15 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 1.97 | ||
| P/B | 1.16 | ||
| P/tB | 1.16 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.86 |
EPS(TTM)5.3
EY18.69%
EPS(NY)3.59
Fwd EY12.65%
FCF(TTM)-1.23
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)14.43
OCFY50.89%
SpS24.64
BVpS24.34
TBVpS24.34
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.55
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 11.41% | ||
| ROE | 26.96% | ||
| ROCE | 19.65% | ||
| ROIC | 16.57% | ||
| ROICexc | 16.68% | ||
| ROICexgc | 16.68% | ||
| OM | 41.3% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 26.64% | ||
| GM | 76.13% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
ROICexc(3y)22.07%
ROICexc(5y)19.88%
ROICexgc(3y)22.07%
ROICexgc(5y)19.88%
ROCE(3y)26.13%
ROCE(5y)23.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexcg growth 5Y35.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y35.22%
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.3 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 200.01% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 63.56% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.36 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 80.14% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.92 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.92 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
F-Score7
WACC9.06%
ROIC/WACC1.83
Cap/Depr(3y)383.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)349.2%
Cap/Sales(3y)82.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)83.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.26%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%3.91%
EPS Next Y-13.9%
EPS Next 2Y-17.36%
EPS Next 3Y-6.26%
EPS Next 5Y-8.25%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.77%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%51.91%
Revenue Next Year0.97%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.47%
Revenue Next 3Y1.74%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y21.75%
EBIT growth 3Y120.69%
EBIT growth 5Y68.41%
EBIT Next Year86.85%
EBIT Next 3Y23.96%
EBIT Next 5Y15.51%
FCF growth 1Y66.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y36.43%
OCF growth 3Y52.59%
OCF growth 5Y32.9%