NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG)
US6655313079 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to NOG. NOG was compared to 205 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While NOG has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. NOG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year NOG was profitable.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years NOG reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years NOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
NOG has a better Return On Assets (16.57%) than 87.75% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 36.20%, NOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 92.16% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG has a Return On Invested Capital of 20.83%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NOG outperforms 91.67% of its industry peers.
NOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 18.00%. This is significantly below the industry average of 29.03%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (20.83%) for NOG is above the 3 year average (18.00%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.57% | ||
| ROE | 36.2% | ||
| ROIC | 20.83% |
ROA(3y)15.11%
ROA(5y)-12.87%
ROE(3y)46.27%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)18%
ROIC(5y)16.54%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of NOG (33.44%) is better than 81.86% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of NOG has grown nicely.
NOG's Operating Margin of 48.81% is amongst the best of the industry. NOG outperforms 87.25% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of NOG has declined.
The Gross Margin of NOG (77.01%) is better than 87.25% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of NOG has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 48.81% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 33.44% | ||
| GM | 77.01% |
OM growth 3Y8.57%
OM growth 5Y-3.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y15.02%
GM growth 3Y1.36%
GM growth 5Y-1.72%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so NOG is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for NOG has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
NOG has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for NOG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.20 indicates that NOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of NOG (2.20) is better than 65.69% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of NOG is 17.28, which is on the high side as it means it would take NOG, 17.28 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
NOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 17.28 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. NOG is outperformed by 60.29% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.84 indicates that NOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.84, NOG is doing worse than 71.08% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.28 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.2 |
ROIC/WACC2.44
WACC8.55%
2.3 Liquidity
NOG has a Current Ratio of 1.23. This is a normal value and indicates that NOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.23, NOG is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.51% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.23 indicates that NOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.23, NOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.73% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.23 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.23 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for NOG have decreased strongly by -10.30% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 1.23% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, NOG shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 43.66%.
Measured over the past years, NOG shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 26.12% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.3%
EPS 3Y55.58%
EPS 5Y1.23%
EPS Q2Q%-19.08%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)43.66%
Revenue growth 3Y57.71%
Revenue growth 5Y26.12%
Sales Q2Q%140.03%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -10.14% on average over the next years. This is quite bad
Based on estimates for the next years, NOG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.76% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-17.27%
EPS Next 2Y-10.34%
EPS Next 3Y-7.78%
EPS Next 5Y-10.14%
Revenue Next Year17.77%
Revenue Next 2Y12.3%
Revenue Next 3Y8.05%
Revenue Next 5Y4.76%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
NOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 6.19.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, NOG is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 79.90% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.20, NOG is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.71 indicates a rather cheap valuation of NOG.
NOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. NOG is cheaper than 75.49% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.73.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.71 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, NOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 87.25% of the companies are valued more expensively.
NOG's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 31.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.86 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
NOG has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as NOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -7.78% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)5.04
EPS Next 2Y-10.34%
EPS Next 3Y-7.78%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.66%, NOG is a good candidate for dividend investing.
NOG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 7.14.
NOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.66% |
5.2 History
NOG has paid a dividend for less than 5 years, so there is no long track record yet.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
NOG pays out 18.56% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP18.56%
EPS Next 2Y-10.34%
EPS Next 3Y-7.78%
NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC
NYSE:NOG (12/20/2024, 8:04:01 PM)
After market: 35.57 0 (0%)35.57
-0.45 (-1.25%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners108.59%
Inst Owner Change4.65%
Ins Owners2.82%
Ins Owner Change0.15%
Market Cap3.55B
Analysts81.25
Price Target50.02 (40.62%)
Short Float %15.68%
Short Ratio12.82
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.66% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP18.56%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.11%
Min EPS beat(2)15.9%
Max EPS beat(2)18.32%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)9.45%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.49%
Max EPS beat(4)18.32%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)3.98%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)4.57%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)5.16%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)19.99%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)37.46%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)14.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-22.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)41.26%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.46%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.73%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-13.94%
PT rev (1m)5.64%
PT rev (3m)-1.18%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.02%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-10.8%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.25%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.22%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.67%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.81%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.28%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.15%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.71 | ||
| P/S | 1.42 | ||
| P/FCF | 31.41 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.43 | ||
| P/B | 1.53 | ||
| P/tB | 1.53 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.86 |
EPS(TTM)5.75
EY16.17%
EPS(NY)5.3
Fwd EY14.89%
FCF(TTM)1.13
FCFY3.18%
OCF(TTM)14.63
OCFY41.14%
SpS25.09
BVpS23.17
TBVpS23.17
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)5.04
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.57% | ||
| ROE | 36.2% | ||
| ROCE | 26.37% | ||
| ROIC | 20.83% | ||
| ROICexc | 20.99% | ||
| ROICexgc | 20.99% | ||
| OM | 48.81% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 33.44% | ||
| GM | 77.01% | ||
| FCFM | 4.51% |
ROA(3y)15.11%
ROA(5y)-12.87%
ROE(3y)46.27%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)18%
ROIC(5y)16.54%
ROICexc(3y)18.03%
ROICexc(5y)16.58%
ROICexgc(3y)18.03%
ROICexgc(5y)16.58%
ROCE(3y)22.78%
ROCE(5y)20.94%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.07%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.07%
OM growth 3Y8.57%
OM growth 5Y-3.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y15.02%
GM growth 3Y1.36%
GM growth 5Y-1.72%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.28 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.02 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 196.04% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 53.81% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 8.68 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.49% | ||
| Profit Quality | 13.5% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.23 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.2 |
F-Score8
WACC8.55%
ROIC/WACC2.44
Cap/Depr(3y)447.5%
Cap/Depr(5y)357.68%
Cap/Sales(3y)97.09%
Cap/Sales(5y)92.63%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.3%
EPS 3Y55.58%
EPS 5Y1.23%
EPS Q2Q%-19.08%
EPS Next Y-17.27%
EPS Next 2Y-10.34%
EPS Next 3Y-7.78%
EPS Next 5Y-10.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)43.66%
Revenue growth 3Y57.71%
Revenue growth 5Y26.12%
Sales Q2Q%140.03%
Revenue Next Year17.77%
Revenue Next 2Y12.3%
Revenue Next 3Y8.05%
Revenue Next 5Y4.76%
EBIT growth 1Y48.69%
EBIT growth 3Y71.24%
EBIT growth 5Y21.22%
EBIT Next Year84.45%
EBIT Next 3Y24.03%
EBIT Next 5Y19.46%
FCF growth 1Y139.68%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y88.7%
OCF growth 3Y52.8%
OCF growth 5Y37.1%