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NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:NOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6655313079 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

33  -2.38 (-6.73%)

After market: 33.02 +0.02 (+0.06%)

Fundamental Rating

5

Overall NOG gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated NOG against 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While NOG has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. NOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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7

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

NOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year NOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years NOG reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
NOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFNOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 500M -500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

NOG has a better Return On Assets (16.57%) than 88.24% of its industry peers.
NOG has a Return On Equity of 36.20%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NOG outperforms 91.67% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of NOG (20.83%) is better than 91.18% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for NOG is significantly below the industry average of 28.75%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (20.83%) for NOG is above the 3 year average (18.00%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.57%
ROE 36.2%
ROIC 20.83%
ROA(3y)15.11%
ROA(5y)-12.87%
ROE(3y)46.27%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)18%
ROIC(5y)16.54%
NOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICNOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200 400

1.3 Margins

NOG's Profit Margin of 33.44% is amongst the best of the industry. NOG outperforms 83.82% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of NOG has grown nicely.
NOG has a Operating Margin of 48.81%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NOG outperforms 89.71% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of NOG has declined.
NOG has a Gross Margin of 77.01%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NOG outperforms 86.27% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of NOG has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 48.81%
PM (TTM) 33.44%
GM 77.01%
OM growth 3Y8.57%
OM growth 5Y-3.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y15.02%
GM growth 3Y1.36%
GM growth 5Y-1.72%
NOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsNOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 -100 -200 -300

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4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), NOG is creating value.
There is no outstanding debt for NOG. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
NOG Yearly Shares OutstandingNOG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
NOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsNOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.14 indicates that NOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of NOG (2.14) is better than 63.73% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of NOG is 17.28, which is on the high side as it means it would take NOG, 17.28 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 17.28, NOG is doing worse than 61.76% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.84. This is a neutral value indicating NOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of NOG (0.84) is worse than 71.08% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.84
Debt/FCF 17.28
Altman-Z 2.14
ROIC/WACC2.35
WACC8.85%
NOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFNOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 500M -500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.23 indicates that NOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.23, NOG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 47.55% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.23 indicates that NOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.23, NOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 62.75% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.23
Quick Ratio 1.23
NOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesNOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

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1

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for NOG have decreased strongly by -20.33% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 9.73% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.33%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%-31.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-31.26%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, NOG will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -6.46% on average per year.
NOG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.14% yearly.
EPS Next Y-3.15%
EPS Next 2Y-0.47%
EPS Next 3Y-6.46%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year3.98%
Revenue Next 2Y5.17%
Revenue Next 3Y1.14%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
NOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesNOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
NOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesNOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2 4 6 8

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7

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings ratio is 6.29, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of NOG.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, NOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.86% of the companies are valued more expensively.
NOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.63, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.49, the valuation of NOG can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, NOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 83.33% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.68, NOG is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 6.29
Fwd PE 6.49
NOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsNOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

89.22% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NOG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of NOG is on the same level as its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 29.14
EV/EBITDA 2.73
NOG Per share dataNOG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15 20 25

4.3 Compensation for Growth

NOG has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as NOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -6.46% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.65
EPS Next 2Y-0.47%
EPS Next 3Y-6.46%

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5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

NOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.09%, which is a nice return.
In the last 3 months the price of NOG has falen by -23.61%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
NOG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 6.67.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.27, NOG pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 5.09%

5.2 History

NOG has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
The dividend of NOG decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years2
NOG Yearly Dividends per shareNOG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

18.56% of the earnings are spent on dividend by NOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP18.56%
EPS Next 2Y-0.47%
EPS Next 3Y-6.46%
NOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendNOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 500M -500M
NOG Dividend Payout.NOG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.NOG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC

NYSE:NOG (2/21/2025, 8:04:01 PM)

After market: 33.02 +0.02 (+0.06%)

33

-2.38 (-6.73%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)02-19 2025-02-19/amc
Earnings (Next)04-28 2025-04-28/amc
Inst Owners113.69%
Inst Owner Change-82.77%
Ins Owners2.8%
Ins Owner Change-0.18%
Market Cap3.29B
Analysts80
Price Target49.94 (51.33%)
Short Float %16.68%
Short Ratio10.92
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 5.09%
Yearly Dividend1.33
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP18.56%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date03-28 2025-03-28 (0.45)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)17.11%
Min EPS beat(2)15.9%
Max EPS beat(2)18.32%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)9.45%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.49%
Max EPS beat(4)18.32%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)3.98%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)4.57%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)5.16%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)19.99%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)37.46%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)14.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-22.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)41.26%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.46%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.73%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-13.94%
PT rev (1m)0.34%
PT rev (3m)4.44%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-7.8%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-8.74%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.76%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.57%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.9%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.75%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.12%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 6.29
Fwd PE 6.49
P/S 1.32
P/FCF 29.14
P/OCF 2.26
P/B 1.42
P/tB 1.42
EV/EBITDA 2.73
EPS(TTM)5.25
EY15.91%
EPS(NY)5.08
Fwd EY15.41%
FCF(TTM)1.13
FCFY3.43%
OCF(TTM)14.63
OCFY44.34%
SpS25.09
BVpS23.17
TBVpS23.17
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.65
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.57%
ROE 36.2%
ROCE 26.37%
ROIC 20.83%
ROICexc 20.99%
ROICexgc 20.99%
OM 48.81%
PM (TTM) 33.44%
GM 77.01%
FCFM 4.51%
ROA(3y)15.11%
ROA(5y)-12.87%
ROE(3y)46.27%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)18%
ROIC(5y)16.54%
ROICexc(3y)18.03%
ROICexc(5y)16.58%
ROICexgc(3y)18.03%
ROICexgc(5y)16.58%
ROCE(3y)22.78%
ROCE(5y)20.94%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.07%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.47%
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.07%
OM growth 3Y8.57%
OM growth 5Y-3.88%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y15.02%
GM growth 3Y1.36%
GM growth 5Y-1.72%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.5
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.84
Debt/FCF 17.28
Debt/EBITDA 1.02
Cap/Depr 196.04%
Cap/Sales 53.81%
Interest Coverage 8.68
Cash Conversion 76.49%
Profit Quality 13.5%
Current Ratio 1.23
Quick Ratio 1.23
Altman-Z 2.14
F-Score8
WACC8.85%
ROIC/WACC2.35
Cap/Depr(3y)447.5%
Cap/Depr(5y)357.68%
Cap/Sales(3y)97.09%
Cap/Sales(5y)92.63%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.33%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%-31.06%
EPS Next Y-3.15%
EPS Next 2Y-0.47%
EPS Next 3Y-6.46%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-31.26%
Revenue Next Year3.98%
Revenue Next 2Y5.17%
Revenue Next 3Y1.14%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y48.69%
EBIT growth 3Y71.24%
EBIT growth 5Y21.22%
EBIT Next Year83.21%
EBIT Next 3Y25.19%
EBIT Next 5Y19.46%
FCF growth 1Y139.68%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y88.7%
OCF growth 3Y52.8%
OCF growth 5Y37.1%