NATL HEALTH INVESTORS INC (NHI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:NHI - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US63633D1046 - REIT - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to NHI. NHI was compared to 130 industry peers in the Diversified REITs industry. While NHI belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. While showing a medium growth rate, NHI is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
NHI had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year NHI had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years NHI has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years NHI had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 5.27%, NHI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 93.85% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of NHI (10.09%) is better than 87.69% of its industry peers.
NHI has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.87%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NHI outperforms 93.85% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for NHI is above the industry average of 3.20%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.87%) for NHI is above the 3 year average (5.45%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.27% | ||
| ROE | 10.09% | ||
| ROIC | 5.87% |
ROA(3y)4.46%
ROA(5y)4.65%
ROE(3y)8.71%
ROE(5y)9.16%
ROIC(3y)5.45%
ROIC(5y)5.5%
1.3 Margins
NHI's Profit Margin of 41.13% is amongst the best of the industry. NHI outperforms 90.77% of its industry peers.
NHI's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of NHI (56.24%) is better than 95.38% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of NHI has declined.
NHI has a better Gross Margin (84.06%) than 85.38% of its industry peers.
NHI's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 56.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 41.13% | ||
| GM | 84.06% |
OM growth 3Y-3.37%
OM growth 5Y-4.05%
PM growth 3Y3.19%
PM growth 5Y-4%
GM growth 3Y-4.37%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
NHI has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
NHI has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for NHI has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, NHI has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.89 indicates that NHI is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.89, NHI belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.38% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of NHI is 17.48, which is on the high side as it means it would take NHI, 17.48 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of NHI (17.48) is better than 79.23% of its industry peers.
NHI has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.84. This is a neutral value indicating NHI is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
NHI's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.84 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. NHI outperforms 68.46% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.48 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
ROIC/WACC0.76
WACC7.73%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.49 indicates that NHI should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
NHI's Current ratio of 1.49 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. NHI outperforms 64.62% of its industry peers.
NHI has a Quick Ratio of 1.49. This is a normal value and indicates that NHI is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of NHI (1.49) is better than 65.38% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.49 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for NHI have decreased by -4.79% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, NHI shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -4.49% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.80% in the past year.
NHI shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 1.05% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.79%
EPS 3Y6.89%
EPS 5Y-4.49%
EPS Q2Q%9.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.8%
Revenue growth 3Y3.92%
Revenue growth 5Y1.05%
Sales Q2Q%7.91%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 4.12% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, NHI will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 19.04% on average per year.
EPS Next Y6.08%
EPS Next 2Y5.92%
EPS Next 3Y4.12%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year10.27%
Revenue Next 2Y11.35%
Revenue Next 3Y10.66%
Revenue Next 5Y19.04%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
NHI is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 25.43.
NHI's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. NHI is cheaper than 69.23% of the companies in the same industry.
NHI is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.29, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.97, the valuation of NHI can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, NHI is valued cheaply inside the industry as 83.85% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NHI to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.08), we can say NHI is valued inline with the index average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.97 |
4.2 Price Multiples
NHI's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. NHI is more expensive than 78.46% of the companies in the same industry.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as NHI.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 53.95 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 17.93 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates NHI does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
NHI has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)4.18
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y5.92%
EPS Next 3Y4.12%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.75%, NHI is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 28.61, NHI has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
NHI's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.52.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.75% |
5.2 History
The dividend of NHI decreases each year by -3.12%.
NHI has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
The dividend of NHI decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-3.12%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
113.52% of the earnings are spent on dividend by NHI. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
DP113.52%
EPS Next 2Y5.92%
EPS Next 3Y4.12%
75.77
+0.46 (+0.61%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryDiversified REITs
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners71%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.94%
Ins Owner Change4.46%
Market Cap3.54B
Analysts76.67
Price Target83.79 (10.58%)
Short Float %4.75%
Short Ratio9.56
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.75% |
Yearly Dividend3.51
Dividend Growth(5Y)-3.12%
DP113.52%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-2.72%
Min EPS beat(2)-12.08%
Max EPS beat(2)6.65%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1.84%
Min EPS beat(4)-12.08%
Max EPS beat(4)9.11%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)4.14%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)-14.09%
EPS beat(16)6
Avg EPS beat(16)-19.94%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.84%
Min Revenue beat(2)3.52%
Max Revenue beat(2)4.16%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)3.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.02%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.59%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.91%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.9%
PT rev (1m)3.6%
PT rev (3m)-1.54%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.23%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.23%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.25%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.06%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-2.03%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.28%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-4.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.97 | ||
| P/S | 10.55 | ||
| P/FCF | 53.95 | ||
| P/OCF | 17.03 | ||
| P/B | 2.59 | ||
| P/tB | 2.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 17.93 |
EPS(TTM)2.98
EY3.93%
EPS(NY)3.16
Fwd EY4.17%
FCF(TTM)1.4
FCFY1.85%
OCF(TTM)4.45
OCFY5.87%
SpS7.18
BVpS29.27
TBVpS29.27
PEG (NY)4.18
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.27% | ||
| ROE | 10.09% | ||
| ROCE | 7.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.87% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.93% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.96% | ||
| OM | 56.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 41.13% | ||
| GM | 84.06% | ||
| FCFM | 19.56% |
ROA(3y)4.46%
ROA(5y)4.65%
ROE(3y)8.71%
ROE(5y)9.16%
ROIC(3y)5.45%
ROIC(5y)5.5%
ROICexc(3y)5.5%
ROICexc(5y)5.56%
ROICexgc(3y)5.53%
ROICexgc(5y)5.6%
ROCE(3y)6.9%
ROCE(5y)6.97%
ROICexcg growth 3Y3.22%
ROICexcg growth 5Y0.14%
ROICexc growth 3Y3.22%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.15%
OM growth 3Y-3.37%
OM growth 5Y-4.05%
PM growth 3Y3.19%
PM growth 5Y-4%
GM growth 3Y-4.37%
GM growth 5Y-3.06%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.13
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.84 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.48 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 199.04% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 42.42% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.4 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 79.93% | ||
| Profit Quality | 47.56% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.49 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
F-Score5
WACC7.73%
ROIC/WACC0.76
Cap/Depr(3y)89.28%
Cap/Depr(5y)89.91%
Cap/Sales(3y)19.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)20.88%
Profit Quality(3y)140.72%
Profit Quality(5y)127.73%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-4.79%
EPS 3Y6.89%
EPS 5Y-4.49%
EPS Q2Q%9.46%
EPS Next Y6.08%
EPS Next 2Y5.92%
EPS Next 3Y4.12%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.8%
Revenue growth 3Y3.92%
Revenue growth 5Y1.05%
Sales Q2Q%7.91%
Revenue Next Year10.27%
Revenue Next 2Y11.35%
Revenue Next 3Y10.66%
Revenue Next 5Y19.04%
EBIT growth 1Y5.6%
EBIT growth 3Y0.41%
EBIT growth 5Y-3.04%
EBIT Next Year55.91%
EBIT Next 3Y17.97%
EBIT Next 5Y11.78%
FCF growth 1Y-54.03%
FCF growth 3Y-26.33%
FCF growth 5Y24.64%
OCF growth 1Y12.64%
OCF growth 3Y-0.5%
OCF growth 5Y-2.92%