NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:NFG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6361801011 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to NFG. NFG was compared to 14 industry peers in the Gas Utilities industry. NFG has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on NFG.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year NFG was profitable.
NFG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
NFG had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years NFG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.47%, NFG is doing worse than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 1.43%, NFG is doing worse than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
NFG's Return On Invested Capital of 8.90% is amongst the best of the industry. NFG outperforms 85.71% of its industry peers.
NFG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.98%. This is above the industry average of 6.29%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.47% | ||
| ROE | 1.43% | ||
| ROIC | 8.9% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 1.91%, NFG is doing worse than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of NFG has declined.
NFG's Operating Margin of 39.46% is amongst the best of the industry. NFG outperforms 92.86% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of NFG has grown nicely.
NFG has a better Gross Margin (90.90%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
NFG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 39.46% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.91% | ||
| GM | 90.9% |
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), NFG is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, NFG has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for NFG has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for NFG is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.56, we must say that NFG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
NFG has a Altman-Z score of 1.56. This is amongst the best in the industry. NFG outperforms 92.86% of its industry peers.
NFG has a debt to FCF ratio of 41.97. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as NFG would need 41.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of NFG (41.97) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.94 indicates that NFG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
NFG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.94. This is in the better half of the industry: NFG outperforms 78.57% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.94 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 41.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
ROIC/WACC1.17
WACC7.59%
2.3 Liquidity
NFG has a Current Ratio of 0.47. This is a bad value and indicates that NFG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of NFG (0.47) is worse than 78.57% of its industry peers.
NFG has a Quick Ratio of 0.47. This is a bad value and indicates that NFG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of NFG (0.43) is worse than 78.57% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
NFG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 15.28%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past 5 years, NFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.81% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, NFG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.94% in the last year.
NFG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.81% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.28%
EPS 3Y5.39%
EPS 5Y7.81%
EPS Q2Q%33.52%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.94%
Revenue growth 3Y3.73%
Revenue growth 5Y2.81%
Sales Q2Q%15.88%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 20.63% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, NFG will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 9.90% on average per year.
EPS Next Y39.64%
EPS Next 2Y30.34%
EPS Next 3Y20.63%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year11.14%
Revenue Next 2Y13.86%
Revenue Next 3Y9.9%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 14.25 indicates a correct valuation of NFG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of NFG indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: NFG is cheaper than 64.29% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of NFG to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.47), we can say NFG is valued slightly cheaper.
NFG is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.73.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, NFG is valued cheaper than 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NFG to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.91), we can say NFG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.73 |
4.2 Price Multiples
85.71% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NFG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
NFG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 106.85 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.03 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
NFG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of NFG may justify a higher PE ratio.
NFG's earnings are expected to grow with 20.63% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.36
PEG (5Y)1.83
EPS Next 2Y30.34%
EPS Next 3Y20.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
NFG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.54%.
NFG's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.98.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.37, NFG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.54% |
5.2 History
The dividend of NFG has a limited annual growth rate of 3.28%.
NFG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
NFG has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
NFG pays out 470.85% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
NFG's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP470.85%
EPS Next 2Y30.34%
EPS Next 3Y20.63%
82.82
+0.63 (+0.77%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryGas Utilities
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.36%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.81%
Ins Owner Change0.2%
Market Cap7.48B
Analysts72
Price Target87.72 (5.92%)
Short Float %2.6%
Short Ratio4.2
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.54% |
Yearly Dividend2.01
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
DP470.85%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)7.42%
Min EPS beat(2)7.07%
Max EPS beat(2)7.77%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1.99%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.24%
Max EPS beat(4)7.77%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)4.57%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.25%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.13%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-9.27%
Min Revenue beat(2)-11.84%
Max Revenue beat(2)-6.69%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-17.82%
Min Revenue beat(4)-29.79%
Max Revenue beat(4)-6.69%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-18.61%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-12.9%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-11.52%
PT rev (1m)3.61%
PT rev (3m)6.61%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-3.94%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.92%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.72%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.76%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.76%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.73 | ||
| P/S | 3.62 | ||
| P/FCF | 106.85 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.85 | ||
| P/B | 2.71 | ||
| P/tB | 2.71 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.03 |
EPS(TTM)5.81
EY7.02%
EPS(NY)8.51
Fwd EY10.28%
FCF(TTM)0.78
FCFY0.94%
OCF(TTM)10.55
OCFY12.74%
SpS22.9
BVpS30.61
TBVpS30.55
PEG (NY)0.36
PEG (5Y)1.83
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.47% | ||
| ROE | 1.43% | ||
| ROCE | 11.22% | ||
| ROIC | 8.9% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.95% | ||
| OM | 39.46% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.91% | ||
| GM | 90.9% | ||
| FCFM | 3.38% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
ROICexc(3y)9.04%
ROICexc(5y)8.33%
ROICexgc(3y)9.05%
ROICexgc(5y)8.34%
ROCE(3y)11.22%
ROCE(5y)10.34%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-1.45%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.52%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.44%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.52%
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.24
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.94 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 41.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.06 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 199.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 42.7% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 75.72% | ||
| Profit Quality | 177.01% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.43 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.56 |
F-Score6
WACC7.59%
ROIC/WACC1.17
Cap/Depr(3y)223.28%
Cap/Depr(5y)225.59%
Cap/Sales(3y)43.83%
Cap/Sales(5y)44.19%
Profit Quality(3y)73.86%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.28%
EPS 3Y5.39%
EPS 5Y7.81%
EPS Q2Q%33.52%
EPS Next Y39.64%
EPS Next 2Y30.34%
EPS Next 3Y20.63%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.94%
Revenue growth 3Y3.73%
Revenue growth 5Y2.81%
Sales Q2Q%15.88%
Revenue Next Year11.14%
Revenue Next 2Y13.86%
Revenue Next 3Y9.9%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y10.75%
EBIT growth 3Y3.1%
EBIT growth 5Y7.33%
EBIT Next Year109.21%
EBIT Next 3Y33.9%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-65.89%
FCF growth 3Y50.02%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-13.16%
OCF growth 3Y10.43%
OCF growth 5Y8.95%