NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:NFG - US6361801011 - Common Stock
88.22 USD
+0.19 (+0.22%)
85.4786 USD
-2.74 (-3.11%)
NFG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 14 industry peers in the Gas Utilities industry. While NFG belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. NFG has both an excellent growth and valuation score. This means it is growing and it is still cheap. This is a rare combination!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year NFG was profitable.
In the past year NFG had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years NFG 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years NFG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.88%, NFG is in line with its industry, outperforming 42.86% of the companies in the same industry.
NFG has a Return On Equity (8.18%) which is in line with its industry peers.
NFG has a better Return On Invested Capital (9.61%) than 85.71% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for NFG is above the industry average of 6.32%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.98%) for NFG is below the current ROIC(9.61%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.88% | ||
| ROE | 8.18% | ||
| ROIC | 9.61% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 11.15%, NFG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of NFG has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 41.10%, NFG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of NFG has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 90.32%, NFG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
NFG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 41.1% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.15% | ||
| GM | 90.32% |
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so NFG is still creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, NFG has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, NFG has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for NFG is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.74, we must say that NFG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of NFG (1.74) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
NFG has a debt to FCF ratio of 14.76. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as NFG would need 14.76 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 14.76, NFG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.82 indicates that NFG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
NFG's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.82 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. NFG outperforms 78.57% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.82 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.74 |
ROIC/WACC1.29
WACC7.44%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.46 indicates that NFG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of NFG (0.46) is worse than 78.57% of its industry peers.
NFG has a Quick Ratio of 0.46. This is a bad value and indicates that NFG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
NFG has a worse Quick ratio (0.39) than 71.43% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.39 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 28.69% over the past year.
NFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.81% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 12.45% in the past year. This is quite good.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.81% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.69%
EPS 3Y5.39%
EPS 5Y7.81%
EPS Q2Q%65.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.45%
Revenue growth 3Y3.73%
Revenue growth 5Y2.81%
Sales Q2Q%27.4%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, NFG will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 23.89% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, NFG will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 11.02% on average per year.
EPS Next Y39.5%
EPS Next 2Y32.22%
EPS Next 3Y23.89%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year9.86%
Revenue Next 2Y14.54%
Revenue Next 3Y11.02%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.66, NFG is valued correctly.
71.43% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NFG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.30. NFG is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.07 indicates a reasonable valuation of NFG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NFG indicates a rather cheap valuation: NFG is cheaper than 92.86% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.73, NFG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.07 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, NFG is valued cheaper than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
NFG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 42.89 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
NFG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
NFG has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as NFG's earnings are expected to grow with 23.89% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.35
PEG (5Y)1.75
EPS Next 2Y32.22%
EPS Next 3Y23.89%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.43%, NFG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
NFG's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.95.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.41, NFG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.43% |
5.2 History
The dividend of NFG has a limited annual growth rate of 3.28%.
NFG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
NFG has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
NFG pays out 76.90% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of NFG is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP76.9%
EPS Next 2Y32.22%
EPS Next 3Y23.89%
88.22
+0.19 (+0.22%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryGas Utilities
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners78.55%
Inst Owner Change0.64%
Ins Owners0.83%
Ins Owner Change0.2%
Market Cap7.97B
Analysts78
Price Target103.02 (16.78%)
Short Float %2.48%
Short Ratio3.42
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.43% |
Yearly Dividend2.01
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
DP76.9%
Div Incr Years34
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)7.73%
Min EPS beat(2)7.07%
Max EPS beat(2)8.4%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)3.5%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.24%
Max EPS beat(4)8.4%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)4.32%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.71%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.26%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-9.42%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.14%
Max Revenue beat(2)-6.69%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-15.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-29.79%
Max Revenue beat(4)-6.69%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-18.02%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-13.24%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-11.08%
PT rev (1m)4.12%
PT rev (3m)17.44%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-7.57%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-3.31%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-7.5%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.39%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.15%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.07 | ||
| P/S | 3.65 | ||
| P/FCF | 42.89 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.52 | ||
| P/B | 2.68 | ||
| P/tB | 2.68 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
EPS(TTM)6.46
EY7.32%
EPS(NY)8.76
Fwd EY9.93%
FCF(TTM)2.06
FCFY2.33%
OCF(TTM)11.73
OCFY13.3%
SpS24.16
BVpS32.93
TBVpS32.87
PEG (NY)0.35
PEG (5Y)1.75
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.88% | ||
| ROE | 8.18% | ||
| ROCE | 11.88% | ||
| ROIC | 9.61% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.66% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.67% | ||
| OM | 41.1% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.15% | ||
| GM | 90.32% | ||
| FCFM | 8.51% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
ROICexc(3y)9.04%
ROICexc(5y)8.33%
ROICexgc(3y)9.05%
ROICexgc(5y)8.34%
ROCE(3y)11.22%
ROCE(5y)10.34%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-1.45%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.52%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.44%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.52%
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.26
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.82 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.76 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.82 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 196.09% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 40.05% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.93% | ||
| Profit Quality | 76.32% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.39 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.74 |
F-Score6
WACC7.44%
ROIC/WACC1.29
Cap/Depr(3y)223.28%
Cap/Depr(5y)225.59%
Cap/Sales(3y)43.83%
Cap/Sales(5y)44.19%
Profit Quality(3y)73.86%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)28.69%
EPS 3Y5.39%
EPS 5Y7.81%
EPS Q2Q%65.66%
EPS Next Y39.5%
EPS Next 2Y32.22%
EPS Next 3Y23.89%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.45%
Revenue growth 3Y3.73%
Revenue growth 5Y2.81%
Sales Q2Q%27.4%
Revenue Next Year9.86%
Revenue Next 2Y14.54%
Revenue Next 3Y11.02%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y22.54%
EBIT growth 3Y3.1%
EBIT growth 5Y7.33%
EBIT Next Year110.08%
EBIT Next 3Y35.23%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-30.28%
FCF growth 3Y50.02%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-12.64%
OCF growth 3Y10.43%
OCF growth 5Y8.95%