NATIONAL FUEL GAS CO (NFG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:NFG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6361801011 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
NFG gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 14 industry peers in the Gas Utilities industry. While NFG is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on NFG.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
NFG had positive earnings in the past year.
NFG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years NFG 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years NFG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of NFG (-0.13%) is worse than 85.71% of its industry peers.
NFG's Return On Equity of -0.38% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. NFG is outperformed by 85.71% of its industry peers.
NFG's Return On Invested Capital of 8.38% is amongst the best of the industry. NFG outperforms 85.71% of its industry peers.
NFG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.98%. This is in line with the industry average of 7.78%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.13% | ||
| ROE | -0.38% | ||
| ROIC | 8.38% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
1.3 Margins
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of NFG has declined.
NFG's Operating Margin of 38.08% is amongst the best of the industry. NFG outperforms 92.86% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of NFG has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 91.93%, NFG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
NFG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 38.08% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 91.93% |
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so NFG is still creating some value.
NFG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, NFG has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for NFG is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.44, we must say that NFG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of NFG (1.44) is better than 92.86% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of NFG is 31.97, which is on the high side as it means it would take NFG, 31.97 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
NFG has a better Debt to FCF ratio (31.97) than 64.29% of its industry peers.
NFG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.87. This is a neutral value indicating NFG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
NFG's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.87 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. NFG outperforms 78.57% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.87 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 31.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.44 |
ROIC/WACC1.12
WACC7.45%
2.3 Liquidity
NFG has a Current Ratio of 0.39. This is a bad value and indicates that NFG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.39, NFG is doing worse than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.33 indicates that NFG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.33, NFG is not doing good in the industry: 85.71% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.39 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.33 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 8.77% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, NFG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.81% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, NFG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -3.50% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, NFG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.81% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.77%
EPS 3Y5.39%
EPS 5Y7.81%
EPS Q2Q%13.7%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.5%
Revenue growth 3Y3.73%
Revenue growth 5Y2.81%
Sales Q2Q%4.59%
3.2 Future
NFG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 16.68% yearly.
NFG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 8.47% yearly.
EPS Next Y36.78%
EPS Next 2Y26.54%
EPS Next 3Y16.68%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year14.2%
Revenue Next 2Y11.14%
Revenue Next 3Y8.47%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 14.23 indicates a correct valuation of NFG.
NFG's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. NFG is cheaper than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 29.35, NFG is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.24, the valuation of NFG can be described as very reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NFG indicates a rather cheap valuation: NFG is cheaper than 92.86% of the companies listed in the same industry.
NFG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.10, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.24 |
4.2 Price Multiples
NFG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. NFG is cheaper than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of NFG indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: NFG is cheaper than 64.29% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 74.28 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.79 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
NFG has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
NFG's earnings are expected to grow with 16.68% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.39
PEG (5Y)1.82
EPS Next 2Y26.54%
EPS Next 3Y16.68%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.80%, NFG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.93, NFG is paying slightly less dividend.
NFG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.33.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
5.2 History
The dividend of NFG has a limited annual growth rate of 3.28%.
NFG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
NFG has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
Div Incr Years33
Div Non Decr Years33
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of NFG are negative and hence is the payout ratio. NFG will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
The dividend of NFG is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP-1760.47%
EPS Next 2Y26.54%
EPS Next 3Y16.68%
74.14
+0.58 (+0.79%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryGas Utilities
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.43%
Inst Owner Change0.56%
Ins Owners0.89%
Ins Owner Change-0.2%
Market Cap6.71B
Analysts72
Price Target78.2 (5.48%)
Short Float %3.37%
Short Ratio4.68
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.8% |
Yearly Dividend2.01
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.28%
DP-1760.47%
Div Incr Years33
Div Non Decr Years33
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.73%
Min EPS beat(2)-9.24%
Max EPS beat(2)7.77%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)4.57%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.24%
Max EPS beat(4)17.37%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)3.4%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)2.78%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.17%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-20.82%
Min Revenue beat(2)-29.79%
Max Revenue beat(2)-11.84%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-20.82%
Min Revenue beat(4)-29.79%
Max Revenue beat(4)-11.84%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-17.54%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-11.73%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-11.69%
PT rev (1m)3.6%
PT rev (3m)12.75%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.74%
EPS NQ rev (3m)14.97%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.96%
EPS NY rev (3m)16.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.64%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.81%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.61%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.63%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.24 | ||
| P/S | 3.41 | ||
| P/FCF | 74.28 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.61 | ||
| P/B | 2.44 | ||
| P/tB | 2.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.79 |
EPS(TTM)5.21
EY7.03%
EPS(NY)8.02
Fwd EY10.82%
FCF(TTM)1
FCFY1.35%
OCF(TTM)11.21
OCFY15.12%
SpS21.74
BVpS30.4
TBVpS30.34
PEG (NY)0.39
PEG (5Y)1.82
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -0.13% | ||
| ROE | -0.38% | ||
| ROCE | 10.56% | ||
| ROIC | 8.38% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.43% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.44% | ||
| OM | 38.08% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 91.93% | ||
| FCFM | 4.59% |
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)3.39%
ROE(3y)15.34%
ROE(5y)12.02%
ROIC(3y)8.98%
ROIC(5y)8.29%
ROICexc(3y)9.04%
ROICexc(5y)8.33%
ROICexgc(3y)9.05%
ROICexgc(5y)8.34%
ROCE(3y)11.22%
ROCE(5y)10.34%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-1.45%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.52%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.44%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.52%
OM growth 3Y-0.6%
OM growth 5Y4.39%
PM growth 3Y-42.41%
PM growth 5Y-26.01%
GM growth 3Y0.79%
GM growth 5Y3.64%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.24
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.87 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 31.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.99 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 205.22% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 46.97% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 84.57% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.39 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.33 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.44 |
F-Score5
WACC7.45%
ROIC/WACC1.12
Cap/Depr(3y)223.28%
Cap/Depr(5y)225.59%
Cap/Sales(3y)43.83%
Cap/Sales(5y)44.19%
Profit Quality(3y)73.86%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)8.77%
EPS 3Y5.39%
EPS 5Y7.81%
EPS Q2Q%13.7%
EPS Next Y36.78%
EPS Next 2Y26.54%
EPS Next 3Y16.68%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.5%
Revenue growth 3Y3.73%
Revenue growth 5Y2.81%
Sales Q2Q%4.59%
Revenue Next Year14.2%
Revenue Next 2Y11.14%
Revenue Next 3Y8.47%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y5.91%
EBIT growth 3Y3.1%
EBIT growth 5Y7.33%
EBIT Next Year107.75%
EBIT Next 3Y31.22%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-33.79%
FCF growth 3Y50.02%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y4.83%
OCF growth 3Y10.43%
OCF growth 5Y8.95%