NATIONAL CINEMEDIA INC (NCMI) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:NCMI - Nasdaq - US6353092066 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to NCMI. NCMI was compared to 97 industry peers in the Media industry. While NCMI has a great health rating, there are worries on its profitability. NCMI is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
NCMI had negative earnings in the past year.
In the past year NCMI had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years NCMI reported 4 times negative net income.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: NCMI reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of -3.92%, NCMI perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.24% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -5.42%, NCMI is in line with its industry, outperforming 48.45% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.92% | ||
| ROE | -5.42% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)38.89%
ROA(5y)20.67%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Gross Margin of NCMI (47.84%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of NCMI has declined.
NCMI does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 47.84% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.3%
GM growth 5Y-7.27%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
NCMI does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for NCMI has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
NCMI has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for NCMI has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
NCMI has an Altman-Z score of 3.34. This indicates that NCMI is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of NCMI (3.34) is better than 85.57% of its industry peers.
NCMI has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.18. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.18 years to pay back of all of its debts.
NCMI has a better Debt to FCF ratio (0.18) than 93.81% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.02 indicates that NCMI is not too dependend on debt financing.
With an excellent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.02, NCMI belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 87.63% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.18 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.34 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC9.01%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.42 indicates that NCMI has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.42, NCMI is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 74.23% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 2.42 indicates that NCMI has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
NCMI has a better Quick ratio (2.42) than 77.32% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.42 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.42 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
NCMI shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 94.10%, which is quite impressive.
The Revenue has grown by 45.76% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
The Revenue for NCMI have been decreasing by -11.55% on average. This is quite bad
EPS 1Y (TTM)94.1%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%8.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.76%
Revenue growth 3Y28.08%
Revenue growth 5Y-11.55%
Sales Q2Q%-5.06%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, NCMI will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 48.34% on average per year.
NCMI is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 9.40% yearly.
EPS Next Y119.22%
EPS Next 2Y64.61%
EPS Next 3Y48.34%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year13.58%
Revenue Next 2Y11.35%
Revenue Next 3Y9.4%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for NCMI. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 131.46, NCMI can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as NCMI.
NCMI is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.65, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 131.46 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of NCMI is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, NCMI is valued a bit cheaper than 74.23% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 21.56 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
NCMI's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
NCMI's earnings are expected to grow with 48.34% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y64.61%
EPS Next 3Y48.34%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.51%, NCMI is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.05, NCMI pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.51, NCMI pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.51.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.51% |
5.2 History
The dividend of NCMI decreases each year by -81.95%.
NCMI has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-81.95%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
NCMI has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-1.35%
EPS Next 2Y64.61%
EPS Next 3Y48.34%
5.81
-0.04 (-0.68%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorCommunication Services
GICS IndustryGroupMedia & Entertainment
GICS IndustryMedia
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.94%
Inst Owner Change0.05%
Ins Owners0.63%
Ins Owner Change4.2%
Market Cap553.05M
Analysts86
Price Target7.65 (31.67%)
Short Float %5.61%
Short Ratio8
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.51% |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)-81.95%
DP-1.35%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-9.79%
Min EPS beat(2)-47.04%
Max EPS beat(2)27.45%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-101.32%
Min EPS beat(4)-370.59%
Max EPS beat(4)27.45%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-50.95%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-10.77%
EPS beat(16)5
Avg EPS beat(16)-18.18%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.62%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.19%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.43%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.84%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.56%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-8.23%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)-4.7%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-11.81%
PT rev (1m)-5.26%
PT rev (3m)-6.98%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-5.26%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-42.86%
EPS NY rev (1m)-79.37%
EPS NY rev (3m)-80.6%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.4%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-19.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.12%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.51%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 131.46 | ||
| P/S | 2.3 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.15 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.17 | ||
| P/B | 1.34 | ||
| P/tB | 9.16 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 21.56 |
EPS(TTM)-0.23
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.04
Fwd EY0.76%
FCF(TTM)0.57
FCFY9.85%
OCF(TTM)0.63
OCFY10.9%
SpS2.53
BVpS4.32
TBVpS0.63
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -3.92% | ||
| ROE | -5.42% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 47.84% | ||
| FCFM | 22.63% |
ROA(3y)38.89%
ROA(5y)20.67%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.3%
GM growth 5Y-7.27%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.42
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.02 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.44 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 13.68% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.41% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | 264.47% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.42 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.42 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.34 |
F-Score5
WACC9.01%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)11.94%
Cap/Depr(5y)14.61%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.86%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.88%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)94.1%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%8.33%
EPS Next Y119.22%
EPS Next 2Y64.61%
EPS Next 3Y48.34%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.76%
Revenue growth 3Y28.08%
Revenue growth 5Y-11.55%
Sales Q2Q%-5.06%
Revenue Next Year13.58%
Revenue Next 2Y11.35%
Revenue Next 3Y9.4%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y28.47%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year340.13%
EBIT Next 3Y75.45%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y645%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-15.91%
OCF growth 1Y1000%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y-15.93%