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MURPHY USA INC (MUSA) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:MUSA - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6267551025 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

446.47  -14.33 (-3.11%)

After market: 446.47 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

6

Overall MUSA gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated MUSA against 120 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. MUSA has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. MUSA is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

MUSA had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year MUSA had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years MUSA has always been profitable.
MUSA had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
MUSA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMUSA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of MUSA (11.06%) is better than 85.47% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 59.81%, MUSA belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 96.58% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of MUSA (16.07%) is better than 86.32% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MUSA is significantly above the industry average of 12.30%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 11.06%
ROE 59.81%
ROIC 16.07%
ROA(3y)13.41%
ROA(5y)12.88%
ROE(3y)77.34%
ROE(5y)66.09%
ROIC(3y)19%
ROIC(5y)18.15%
MUSA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMUSA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20 40 60 80 100

1.3 Margins

MUSA has a better Profit Margin (2.48%) than 62.39% of its industry peers.
MUSA's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of MUSA (3.73%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MUSA has grown nicely.
The Gross Margin of MUSA (11.39%) is worse than 92.31% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MUSA has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.73%
PM (TTM) 2.48%
GM 11.39%
OM growth 3Y1.87%
OM growth 5Y14.26%
PM growth 3Y2.77%
PM growth 5Y17.58%
GM growth 3Y2.28%
GM growth 5Y7.25%
MUSA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMUSA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2 4 6 8 10

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5

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MUSA is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, MUSA has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for MUSA has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
MUSA has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
MUSA Yearly Shares OutstandingMUSA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10M 20M 30M 40M
MUSA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMUSA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 7.60 indicates that MUSA is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
MUSA's Altman-Z score of 7.60 is amongst the best of the industry. MUSA outperforms 97.44% of its industry peers.
MUSA has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.75. This is a neutral value as MUSA would need 4.75 years to pay back of all of its debts.
MUSA has a Debt to FCF ratio of 4.75. This is in the better half of the industry: MUSA outperforms 62.39% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.18 is on the high side and indicates that MUSA has dependencies on debt financing.
MUSA has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (2.18) than 71.79% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.18
Debt/FCF 4.75
Altman-Z 7.6
ROIC/WACC1.62
WACC9.93%
MUSA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMUSA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.79 indicates that MUSA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.79, MUSA is not doing good in the industry: 88.89% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.37 indicates that MUSA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.37, MUSA is doing worse than 61.54% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.79
Quick Ratio 0.37
MUSA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMUSA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for MUSA have decreased by -5.14% in the last year.
MUSA shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 35.75% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -5.97% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.60% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-5.14%
EPS 3Y16.64%
EPS 5Y35.75%
EPS Q2Q%-0.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.97%
Revenue growth 3Y5.25%
Revenue growth 5Y7.6%
Sales Q2Q%-7.07%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 11.66% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.46% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y9.01%
EPS Next 2Y9.78%
EPS Next 3Y8.52%
EPS Next 5Y11.66%
Revenue Next Year2.28%
Revenue Next 2Y0.92%
Revenue Next 3Y3.24%
Revenue Next 5Y1.46%

3.3 Evolution

The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
MUSA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMUSA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 5B 10B 15B 20B
MUSA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMUSA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 10 20 30 40 50

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5

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

MUSA is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 18.45.
70.09% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MUSA, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.63. MUSA is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.92 indicates a correct valuation of MUSA.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MUSA indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: MUSA is cheaper than 66.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.68, MUSA is valued a bit cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.45
Fwd PE 16.92
MUSA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMUSA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

MUSA's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MUSA is valued a bit cheaper than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 22.95
EV/EBITDA 10.99
MUSA Per share dataMUSA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 200 400 600 800 1K

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of MUSA may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.05
PEG (5Y)0.52
EPS Next 2Y9.78%
EPS Next 3Y8.52%

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3

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a yearly dividend of 0.40%, MUSA is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.31, MUSA pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.40, MUSA pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.27.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.4%

5.2 History

MUSA has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
MUSA has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
MUSA Yearly Dividends per shareMUSA Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

7.32% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MUSA. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP7.32%
EPS Next 2Y9.78%
EPS Next 3Y8.52%
MUSA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMUSA Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M
MUSA Dividend Payout.MUSA Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MUSA Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MURPHY USA INC

NYSE:MUSA (2/21/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 446.47 0 (0%)

446.47

-14.33 (-3.11%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)02-05 2025-02-05/amc
Earnings (Next)04-29 2025-04-29/amc
Inst Owners84.69%
Inst Owner Change-1.77%
Ins Owners7.17%
Ins Owner Change4.3%
Market Cap8.94B
Analysts75
Price Target530.4 (18.8%)
Short Float %5.94%
Short Ratio5.68
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.4%
Yearly Dividend1.8
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP7.32%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date02-24 2025-02-24 (0.49)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)5.52%
Min EPS beat(2)5.33%
Max EPS beat(2)5.7%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.02%
Min EPS beat(4)-33.21%
Max EPS beat(4)5.7%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.46%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)15.57%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)21.83%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.56%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.63%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.49%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-5.66%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.63%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.85%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.15%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.57%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.6%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)1.68%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-24.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-36.64%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.81%
EPS NY rev (3m)-3.54%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-2.73%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.4%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.43%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.22%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.45
Fwd PE 16.92
P/S 0.44
P/FCF 22.95
P/OCF 10.55
P/B 10.64
P/tB 23.99
EV/EBITDA 10.99
EPS(TTM)24.2
EY5.42%
EPS(NY)26.38
Fwd EY5.91%
FCF(TTM)19.46
FCFY4.36%
OCF(TTM)42.34
OCFY9.48%
SpS1011.2
BVpS41.96
TBVpS18.61
PEG (NY)2.05
PEG (5Y)0.52
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 11.06%
ROE 59.81%
ROCE 21.01%
ROIC 16.07%
ROICexc 16.28%
ROICexgc 18.75%
OM 3.73%
PM (TTM) 2.48%
GM 11.39%
FCFM 1.92%
ROA(3y)13.41%
ROA(5y)12.88%
ROE(3y)77.34%
ROE(5y)66.09%
ROIC(3y)19%
ROIC(5y)18.15%
ROICexc(3y)19.48%
ROICexc(5y)19%
ROICexgc(3y)22.67%
ROICexgc(5y)21.44%
ROCE(3y)24.85%
ROCE(5y)23.74%
ROICexcg growth 3Y1.96%
ROICexcg growth 5Y11.65%
ROICexc growth 3Y2.7%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.54%
OM growth 3Y1.87%
OM growth 5Y14.26%
PM growth 3Y2.77%
PM growth 5Y17.58%
GM growth 3Y2.28%
GM growth 5Y7.25%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover4.46
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.18
Debt/FCF 4.75
Debt/EBITDA 1.83
Cap/Depr 184.72%
Cap/Sales 2.26%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 84.49%
Profit Quality 77.51%
Current Ratio 0.79
Quick Ratio 0.37
Altman-Z 7.6
F-Score6
WACC9.93%
ROIC/WACC1.62
Cap/Depr(3y)156.66%
Cap/Depr(5y)148.5%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.71%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.75%
Profit Quality(3y)86.83%
Profit Quality(5y)92.66%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-5.14%
EPS 3Y16.64%
EPS 5Y35.75%
EPS Q2Q%-0.57%
EPS Next Y9.01%
EPS Next 2Y9.78%
EPS Next 3Y8.52%
EPS Next 5Y11.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.97%
Revenue growth 3Y5.25%
Revenue growth 5Y7.6%
Sales Q2Q%-7.07%
Revenue Next Year2.28%
Revenue Next 2Y0.92%
Revenue Next 3Y3.24%
Revenue Next 5Y1.46%
EBIT growth 1Y-8.66%
EBIT growth 3Y7.22%
EBIT growth 5Y22.94%
EBIT Next Year44.62%
EBIT Next 3Y17.24%
EBIT Next 5Y11.63%
FCF growth 1Y-13.14%
FCF growth 3Y-5.58%
FCF growth 5Y29.13%
OCF growth 1Y8.11%
OCF growth 3Y4.75%
OCF growth 5Y22.02%