VAIL RESORTS INC (MTN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MTN - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US91879Q1094 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to MTN. MTN was compared to 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While MTN is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. MTN has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively. MTN also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MTN was profitable.
In the past year MTN had a positive cash flow from operations.
MTN had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years MTN always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 4.04%, MTN is doing good in the industry, outperforming 62.60% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of MTN (31.84%) is better than 85.50% of its industry peers.
MTN's Return On Invested Capital of 7.97% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MTN outperforms 61.83% of its industry peers.
MTN had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.00%. This is below the industry average of 10.79%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.04% | ||
| ROE | 31.84% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)4.69%
ROA(5y)3.6%
ROE(3y)26.71%
ROE(5y)19.13%
ROIC(3y)8%
ROIC(5y)6.38%
1.3 Margins
MTN's Profit Margin of 7.99% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MTN outperforms 67.18% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MTN has declined.
The Operating Margin of MTN (17.15%) is better than 70.23% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MTN has declined.
MTN has a Gross Margin of 42.61%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MTN underperforms 61.07% of its industry peers.
MTN's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 17.15% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.99% | ||
| GM | 42.61% |
OM growth 3Y6.03%
OM growth 5Y-3.64%
PM growth 3Y6.04%
PM growth 5Y-9.64%
GM growth 3Y-0.65%
GM growth 5Y0.79%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MTN is destroying value.
MTN has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for MTN has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
MTN has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.66, we must say that MTN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of MTN (1.66) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
MTN has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.40. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MTN would need 7.40 years to pay back of all of its debts.
MTN has a better Debt to FCF ratio (7.40) than 67.94% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.76 is on the high side and indicates that MTN has dependencies on debt financing.
MTN has a Debt to Equity ratio (3.76) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.76 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.4 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
ROIC/WACC0.9
WACC8.86%
2.3 Liquidity
MTN has a Current Ratio of 0.82. This is a bad value and indicates that MTN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of MTN (0.82) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
MTN has a Quick Ratio of 0.82. This is a bad value and indicates that MTN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.71, MTN is in line with its industry, outperforming 41.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.82 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MTN shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 11.69%, which is quite good.
MTN shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -3.88% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -0.15% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, MTN shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.90% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)11.69%
EPS 3Y25.78%
EPS 5Y-3.88%
EPS Q2Q%-0.22%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.15%
Revenue growth 3Y14.75%
Revenue growth 5Y4.9%
Sales Q2Q%0.65%
3.2 Future
MTN is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 14.57% yearly.
MTN is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.01% yearly.
EPS Next Y27.8%
EPS Next 2Y17.47%
EPS Next 3Y14.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.53%
Revenue Next 2Y4.37%
Revenue Next 3Y4.01%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 26.32, which means the current valuation is very expensive for MTN.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as MTN.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 29.63, MTN is valued at the same level.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 19.04, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of MTN.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MTN is valued a bit cheaper than 67.18% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.68. MTN is around the same levels.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.04 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, MTN is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 61.83% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of MTN indicates a rather cheap valuation: MTN is cheaper than 82.44% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.8 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.88 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MTN's earnings are expected to grow with 14.57% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y17.47%
EPS Next 3Y14.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MTN has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.60%, which is a nice return.
MTN's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.08. MTN pays more dividend than 94.66% of the companies in the same industry.
MTN's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.27.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.6% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MTN has a limited annual growth rate of 5.81%.
MTN has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MTN has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
140.48% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MTN. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of MTN is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP140.48%
EPS Next 2Y17.47%
EPS Next 3Y14.57%
158.47
-0.19 (-0.12%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners106.66%
Inst Owner Change-94.45%
Ins Owners1.14%
Ins Owner Change3.22%
Market Cap5.93B
Analysts68.24
Price Target208.36 (31.48%)
Short Float %6.69%
Short Ratio3.91
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.6% |
Yearly Dividend8.55
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
DP140.48%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-7.16%
Min EPS beat(2)-9.05%
Max EPS beat(2)-5.28%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-4.79%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.05%
Max EPS beat(4)-0.24%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.38%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-2.82%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1.38%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.62%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.67%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.67%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.73%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.37%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.54%
PT rev (1m)-0.04%
PT rev (3m)3.6%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.25%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.59%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.63%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.09%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.09%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.33%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.04 | ||
| P/S | 2.06 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.8 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.11 | ||
| P/B | 8.2 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.88 |
EPS(TTM)6.02
EY3.8%
EPS(NY)8.32
Fwd EY5.25%
FCF(TTM)10.03
FCFY6.33%
OCF(TTM)15.67
OCFY9.89%
SpS77.06
BVpS19.33
TBVpS-33.57
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.04% | ||
| ROE | 31.84% | ||
| ROCE | 10.79% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.57% | ||
| ROICexgc | 16.01% | ||
| OM | 17.15% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.99% | ||
| GM | 42.61% | ||
| FCFM | 13.02% |
ROA(3y)4.69%
ROA(5y)3.6%
ROE(3y)26.71%
ROE(5y)19.13%
ROIC(3y)8%
ROIC(5y)6.38%
ROICexc(3y)9.28%
ROICexc(5y)7.46%
ROICexgc(3y)17.98%
ROICexgc(5y)14.59%
ROCE(3y)10.84%
ROCE(5y)8.64%
ROICexcg growth 3Y15.03%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.88%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.4%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.28%
OM growth 3Y6.03%
OM growth 5Y-3.64%
PM growth 3Y6.04%
PM growth 5Y-9.64%
GM growth 3Y-0.65%
GM growth 5Y0.79%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.51
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.76 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.4 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.53 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 76.38% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.32% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.38 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.08% | ||
| Profit Quality | 163.01% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.82 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
F-Score6
WACC8.86%
ROIC/WACC0.9
Cap/Depr(3y)90.02%
Cap/Depr(5y)76.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)8.62%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.13%
Profit Quality(3y)144.31%
Profit Quality(5y)195.81%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)11.69%
EPS 3Y25.78%
EPS 5Y-3.88%
EPS Q2Q%-0.22%
EPS Next Y27.8%
EPS Next 2Y17.47%
EPS Next 3Y14.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.15%
Revenue growth 3Y14.75%
Revenue growth 5Y4.9%
Sales Q2Q%0.65%
Revenue Next Year4.53%
Revenue Next 2Y4.37%
Revenue Next 3Y4.01%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-4.15%
EBIT growth 3Y21.66%
EBIT growth 5Y1.08%
EBIT Next Year70.42%
EBIT Next 3Y22.87%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y15.67%
FCF growth 3Y-2.9%
FCF growth 5Y-3.21%
OCF growth 1Y-8.26%
OCF growth 3Y3.76%
OCF growth 5Y-1.54%