VAIL RESORTS INC (MTN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MTN - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US91879Q1094 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall MTN gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated MTN against 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While MTN is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. MTN has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate. MTN also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
MTN had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year MTN had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years MTN has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years MTN had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
MTN has a Return On Assets of 5.03%. This is in the better half of the industry: MTN outperforms 69.92% of its industry peers.
MTN's Return On Equity of 32.40% is amongst the best of the industry. MTN outperforms 87.22% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of MTN (9.72%) is better than 72.18% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MTN is significantly below the industry average of 13.81%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.00%) for MTN is below the current ROIC(9.72%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.03% | ||
| ROE | 32.4% | ||
| ROIC | 9.72% |
ROA(3y)4.69%
ROA(5y)3.6%
ROE(3y)26.71%
ROE(5y)19.13%
ROIC(3y)8%
ROIC(5y)6.38%
1.3 Margins
MTN's Profit Margin of 9.81% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MTN outperforms 75.19% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MTN has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 18.38%, MTN is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.19% of the companies in the same industry.
MTN's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
MTN's Gross Margin of 42.81% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MTN outperforms 41.35% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MTN has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 18.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.81% | ||
| GM | 42.81% |
OM growth 3Y6.03%
OM growth 5Y-3.64%
PM growth 3Y6.04%
PM growth 5Y-9.64%
GM growth 3Y-0.65%
GM growth 5Y0.79%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
MTN has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, MTN has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, MTN has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, MTN has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.72, we must say that MTN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
MTN's Altman-Z score of 1.72 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MTN outperforms 53.38% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MTN is 6.80, which is on the high side as it means it would take MTN, 6.80 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MTN has a Debt to FCF ratio of 6.80. This is in the better half of the industry: MTN outperforms 73.68% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.35 is on the high side and indicates that MTN has dependencies on debt financing.
MTN has a Debt to Equity ratio (2.35) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.8 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
ROIC/WACC1.14
WACC8.52%
2.3 Liquidity
MTN has a Current Ratio of 0.61. This is a bad value and indicates that MTN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.61, MTN is not doing good in the industry: 68.42% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
MTN has a Quick Ratio of 0.61. This is a bad value and indicates that MTN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MTN has a Quick ratio of 0.54. This is in the lower half of the industry: MTN underperforms 69.17% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.61 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MTN shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 6.39%.
Measured over the past years, MTN shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -3.88% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, MTN shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 2.38% in the last year.
MTN shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.90% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.39%
EPS 3Y25.78%
EPS 5Y-3.88%
EPS Q2Q%10.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.38%
Revenue growth 3Y14.75%
Revenue growth 5Y4.9%
Sales Q2Q%0.96%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, MTN will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.52% on average per year.
MTN is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.83% yearly.
EPS Next Y29.9%
EPS Next 2Y14.1%
EPS Next 3Y11.52%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.78%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y2.83%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 21.08, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of MTN.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, MTN is valued a bit cheaper than 69.92% of the companies in the same industry.
MTN is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.30, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
MTN is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.00.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as MTN.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MTN to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.76), we can say MTN is valued inline with the index average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.08 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21 |
4.2 Price Multiples
68.42% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MTN, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
MTN's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. MTN is cheaper than 82.71% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.51 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.26 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
MTN has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.71
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y14.1%
EPS Next 3Y11.52%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MTN has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.41%, which is a nice return.
MTN's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.53. MTN pays more dividend than 94.74% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.37, MTN pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.41% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MTN has a limited annual growth rate of 5.81%.
MTN has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MTN has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
MTN pays out 114.33% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
MTN's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP114.33%
EPS Next 2Y14.1%
EPS Next 3Y11.52%
164.88
-4.75 (-2.8%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners105.4%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.06%
Ins Owner Change0.55%
Market Cap6.16B
Analysts68.89
Price Target184.56 (11.94%)
Short Float %8.06%
Short Ratio3.73
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.41% |
Yearly Dividend8.55
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
DP114.33%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.78%
Min EPS beat(2)2.92%
Max EPS beat(2)4.65%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1.77%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.05%
Max EPS beat(4)8.57%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.61%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-1.54%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-0.97%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.41%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.7%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.13%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.51%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.7%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.46%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.85%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.21%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.72%
PT rev (1m)-1.18%
PT rev (3m)-6.03%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.57%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.03%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.24%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.46%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.9%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.56%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.93%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21.08 | ||
| Fwd PE | 21 | ||
| P/S | 2.08 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.51 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.74 | ||
| P/B | 6.88 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.26 |
EPS(TTM)7.82
EY4.74%
EPS(NY)7.85
Fwd EY4.76%
FCF(TTM)10.63
FCFY6.45%
OCF(TTM)16.93
OCFY10.27%
SpS79.23
BVpS23.98
TBVpS-29.02
PEG (NY)0.71
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.03% | ||
| ROE | 32.4% | ||
| ROCE | 13.16% | ||
| ROIC | 9.72% | ||
| ROICexc | 10.96% | ||
| ROICexgc | 23.84% | ||
| OM | 18.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.81% | ||
| GM | 42.81% | ||
| FCFM | 13.41% |
ROA(3y)4.69%
ROA(5y)3.6%
ROE(3y)26.71%
ROE(5y)19.13%
ROIC(3y)8%
ROIC(5y)6.38%
ROICexc(3y)9.28%
ROICexc(5y)7.46%
ROICexgc(3y)17.98%
ROICexgc(5y)14.59%
ROCE(3y)10.84%
ROCE(5y)8.64%
ROICexcg growth 3Y15.03%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.88%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.4%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.28%
OM growth 3Y6.03%
OM growth 5Y-3.64%
PM growth 3Y6.04%
PM growth 5Y-9.64%
GM growth 3Y-0.65%
GM growth 5Y0.79%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.51
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.8 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.52 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 80.81% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.95% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 75.72% | ||
| Profit Quality | 136.81% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.61 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
F-Score7
WACC8.52%
ROIC/WACC1.14
Cap/Depr(3y)90.02%
Cap/Depr(5y)76.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)8.62%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.13%
Profit Quality(3y)144.31%
Profit Quality(5y)195.81%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.39%
EPS 3Y25.78%
EPS 5Y-3.88%
EPS Q2Q%10.48%
EPS Next Y29.9%
EPS Next 2Y14.1%
EPS Next 3Y11.52%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.38%
Revenue growth 3Y14.75%
Revenue growth 5Y4.9%
Sales Q2Q%0.96%
Revenue Next Year2.78%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y2.83%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y2.93%
EBIT growth 3Y21.66%
EBIT growth 5Y1.08%
EBIT Next Year69.61%
EBIT Next 3Y22.8%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y6.65%
FCF growth 3Y-2.9%
FCF growth 5Y-3.21%
OCF growth 1Y-4.85%
OCF growth 3Y3.76%
OCF growth 5Y-1.54%