Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MRO • US5658491064

Current stock price

28.55 USD
-0.37 (-1.28%)
At close:
28.5798 USD
+0.03 (+0.1%)
After Hours:

This MRO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. MRO Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year MRO was profitable.
  • In the past year MRO had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • MRO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years MRO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
MRO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMRO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B -2B 4B -4B

1.2 Ratios

  • MRO has a better Return On Assets (6.85%) than 61.46% of its industry peers.
  • MRO has a Return On Equity of 11.63%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MRO outperforms 51.22% of its industry peers.
  • MRO's Return On Invested Capital of 10.21% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MRO outperforms 67.32% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MRO is significantly below the industry average of 22.77%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.85%
ROE 11.63%
ROIC 10.21%
ROA(3y)10.54%
ROA(5y)5.18%
ROE(3y)18.14%
ROE(5y)8.92%
ROIC(3y)13.87%
ROIC(5y)N/A
MRO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMRO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

  • MRO's Profit Margin of 19.79% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MRO outperforms 65.85% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MRO has grown nicely.
  • MRO has a better Operating Margin (29.96%) than 63.41% of its industry peers.
  • MRO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • With an excellent Gross Margin value of 86.89%, MRO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 92.68% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MRO has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 29.96%
PM (TTM) 19.79%
GM 86.89%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y8.4%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y5.86%
GM growth 3Y2.24%
GM growth 5Y0.24%
MRO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMRO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 50 -50 -100

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4

2. MRO Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MRO is creating some value.
  • MRO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, MRO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
MRO Yearly Shares OutstandingMRO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M 800M
MRO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMRO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10B 20B 30B

2.2 Solvency

  • MRO has an Altman-Z score of 2.76. This is not the best score and indicates that MRO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • MRO's Altman-Z score of 2.76 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MRO outperforms 72.68% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of MRO is 2.33, which is a good value as it means it would take MRO, 2.33 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • MRO's Debt to FCF ratio of 2.33 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MRO outperforms 73.17% of its industry peers.
  • MRO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • MRO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.42) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF 2.33
Altman-Z 2.76
ROIC/WACC1.27
WACC8.07%
MRO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMRO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • MRO has a Current Ratio of 0.69. This is a bad value and indicates that MRO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.69, MRO is doing worse than 79.02% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.61 indicates that MRO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of MRO (0.61) is worse than 78.05% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.69
Quick Ratio 0.61
MRO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMRO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B

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3

3. MRO Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • MRO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -10.36%.
  • MRO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 29.38% yearly.
  • Looking at the last year, MRO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -0.78% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, MRO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 1.30% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.36%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y29.38%
EPS Q2Q%-16.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.78%
Revenue growth 3Y29.48%
Revenue growth 5Y1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-3.97%

3.2 Future

  • MRO is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -2.56% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, MRO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.14% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-6.75%
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-3.07%
EPS Next 5Y-2.56%
Revenue Next Year0.06%
Revenue Next 2Y0.04%
Revenue Next 3Y1.14%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
MRO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMRO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2B 4B 6B 8B
MRO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMRO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 1 -1 2 3 4

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5

4. MRO Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • MRO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 11.37.
  • MRO's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.42, MRO is valued rather cheaply.
  • MRO is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.12.
  • MRO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.24. MRO is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.37
Fwd PE 12.12
MRO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMRO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, MRO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 69.27% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • 75.12% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MRO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.83
EV/EBITDA 4.76
MRO Per share dataMRO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15 20

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The decent profitability rating of MRO may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • MRO's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.07% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-3.07%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. MRO Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • MRO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.54%.
  • MRO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.23.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.81, MRO has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.54%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of MRO grows each year by 15.43%, which is quite nice.
  • MRO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • MRO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.43%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
MRO Yearly Dividends per shareMRO Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

5.3 Sustainability

  • 19.02% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MRO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP19.02%
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-3.07%
MRO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMRO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B -2B -4B
MRO Dividend Payout.MRO Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MRO Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MRO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

Marathon Oil Corp

NYSE:MRO (11/21/2024, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 28.5798 +0.03 (+0.1%)

28.55

-0.37 (-1.28%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)11-06
Earnings (Next)02-19
Inst Owners75.7%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.43%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap15.97B
Revenue(TTM)6.72B
Net Income(TTM)1.33B
Analysts73.08
Price Target31.8 (11.38%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.54%
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.43%
DP19.02%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-4.91%
Min EPS beat(2)-10%
Max EPS beat(2)0.17%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)-0.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-10%
Max EPS beat(4)8.86%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)3.02%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)6.61%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)16.49%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.06%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.46%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.64%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.57%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.44%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.58%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.55%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.13%
PT rev (1m)-1.5%
PT rev (3m)-5.37%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-28.13%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-28.13%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.38%
EPS NY rev (3m)-12.35%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-4.28%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.28%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.35%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.12%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.37
Fwd PE 12.12
P/S 2.38
P/FCF 7.83
P/OCF 3.86
P/B 1.4
P/tB 1.4
EV/EBITDA 4.76
EPS(TTM)2.51
EY8.79%
EPS(NY)2.36
Fwd EY8.25%
FCF(TTM)3.65
FCFY12.78%
OCF(TTM)7.39
OCFY25.88%
SpS12.01
BVpS20.44
TBVpS20.44
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
Graham Number0 (-100%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.85%
ROE 11.63%
ROCE 11.67%
ROIC 10.21%
ROICexc 10.29%
ROICexgc 10.29%
OM 29.96%
PM (TTM) 19.79%
GM 86.89%
FCFM 30.38%
ROA(3y)10.54%
ROA(5y)5.18%
ROE(3y)18.14%
ROE(5y)8.92%
ROIC(3y)13.87%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)14.15%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)14.15%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)15.81%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y12.25%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y12.37%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y8.4%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y5.86%
GM growth 3Y2.24%
GM growth 5Y0.24%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.35
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF 2.33
Debt/EBITDA 1.11
Cap/Depr 91.92%
Cap/Sales 31.15%
Interest Coverage 7.77
Cash Conversion 96.36%
Profit Quality 153.46%
Current Ratio 0.69
Quick Ratio 0.61
Altman-Z 2.76
F-Score7
WACC8.07%
ROIC/WACC1.27
Cap/Depr(3y)75.1%
Cap/Depr(5y)78.57%
Cap/Sales(3y)22.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)32.44%
Profit Quality(3y)158.04%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.36%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y29.38%
EPS Q2Q%-16.88%
EPS Next Y-6.75%
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-3.07%
EPS Next 5Y-2.56%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.78%
Revenue growth 3Y29.48%
Revenue growth 5Y1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-3.97%
Revenue Next Year0.06%
Revenue Next 2Y0.04%
Revenue Next 3Y1.14%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-20.06%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y9.81%
EBIT Next Year90.59%
EBIT Next 3Y24.05%
EBIT Next 5Y14.35%
FCF growth 1Y-49.68%
FCF growth 3Y150.93%
FCF growth 5Y35.42%
OCF growth 1Y-24.1%
OCF growth 3Y40.52%
OCF growth 5Y4.82%

Marathon Oil Corp / MRO Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for MRO stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to MRO.


Can you provide the valuation status for Marathon Oil Corp?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to Marathon Oil Corp (MRO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for Marathon Oil Corp?

Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for MRO stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) is 11.37 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.4.


How sustainable is the dividend of Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) stock?

The dividend rating of Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 19.02%.