MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
182.99 USD
+3.05 (+1.7%)
183.1 USD
+0.11 (+0.06%)
Overall MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated MPC against 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has an average financial health and profitability rating. MPC does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.98%, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.52% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of MPC (14.83%) is better than 72.38% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 7.97%, MPC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.48% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is below the industry average of 21.90%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of MPC (1.75%) is worse than 60.00% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC's Operating Margin of 4.09% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 67.62% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC has a Gross Margin of 9.38%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 71.43% of its industry peers.
MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MPC is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for MPC is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.13. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.13, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.43% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 6.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
MPC has a Debt to FCF ratio (6.93) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of MPC (1.64) is worse than 76.19% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.13 |
ROIC/WACC0.99
WACC8.06%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MPC has a Current ratio of 1.19. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 53.33% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Quick Ratio of 1.19. This is a bad value and indicates that MPC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.73, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 66.19% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -66.21%.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
The Revenue for MPC has decreased by -10.01% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 17.44% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
MPC is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -3.70% yearly.
EPS Next Y-6.62%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
EPS Next 5Y17.44%
Revenue Next Year-8.11%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.5%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 28.77, MPC can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as MPC.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.20, MPC is valued at the same level.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.78, the valuation of MPC can be described as correct.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.71.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.78 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
67.62% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MPC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.48 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.52 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 16.63% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.04
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.00%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.18.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 46.88% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
182.99
+3.05 (+1.7%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.67%
Inst Owner Change-3.9%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap55.63B
Analysts73.91
Price Target192.02 (4.93%)
Short Float %2.68%
Short Ratio4.23
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)1.24%
PT rev (3m)13.96%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.5%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-7.24%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.34%
EPS NY rev (3m)13.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.48%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.25%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.78 | ||
| P/S | 0.4 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.48 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.87 | ||
| P/B | 3.39 | ||
| P/tB | 6.82 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.52 |
EPS(TTM)6.36
EY3.48%
EPS(NY)11.59
Fwd EY6.34%
FCF(TTM)14.66
FCFY8.01%
OCF(TTM)23.25
OCFY12.71%
SpS457.35
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.04
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.13 |
F-Score4
WACC8.06%
ROIC/WACC0.99
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
EPS Next Y-6.62%
EPS Next 2Y11.42%
EPS Next 3Y16.63%
EPS Next 5Y17.44%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
Revenue Next Year-8.11%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.5%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year72.39%
EBIT Next 3Y27.61%
EBIT Next 5Y13.28%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%