MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
191.74 USD
+1.74 (+0.92%)
191.74 USD
0 (0%)
MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has an average financial health and profitability rating. MPC does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively. Finally MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 3.53%, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.86% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 17.56%, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.90% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of MPC (9.41%) is better than 80.00% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is below the industry average of 21.41%.
The 3 year average ROIC (17.20%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(9.41%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 2.13%, MPC is doing worse than 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC has a Operating Margin of 4.97%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 66.19% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC has a Gross Margin of 10.43%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 70.95% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.16. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 3.16, MPC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 84.76% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.23. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 7.23 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 7.23, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
MPC's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 77.14% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.16 |
ROIC/WACC1.17
WACC8.02%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MPC has a Current ratio (1.19) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC has a Quick ratio of 0.73. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 63.81% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -40.24% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 14.10% on average per year.
The Revenue has decreased by -5.85% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.41% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 25.57, MPC can be considered very expensive at the moment.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. MPC is more expensive than 60.48% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.15, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.42, MPC is valued correctly.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as MPC.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 36.12.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.42 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as MPC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of MPC indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: MPC is cheaper than 66.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.95 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates MPC does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.35% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)6.57
PEG (5Y)1.81
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.13%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 5.88.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.41.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.13% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
39.32% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
191.74
+1.74 (+0.92%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.57%
Inst Owner Change-4.68%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.21%
Market Cap58.29B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts74.17
Price Target203.03 (5.89%)
Short Float %2.49%
Short Ratio3.94
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.13% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)4.53%
PT rev (3m)7.85%
EPS NQ rev (1m)20.88%
EPS NQ rev (3m)80.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.2%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)2.47%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)9.76%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.11%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.6%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.57 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.42 | ||
| P/S | 0.43 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.63 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.89 | ||
| P/B | 3.56 | ||
| P/tB | 7.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.95 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY3.91%
EPS(NY)13.3
Fwd EY6.93%
FCF(TTM)14.06
FCFY7.34%
OCF(TTM)24.31
OCFY12.68%
SpS444.88
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)6.57
PEG (5Y)1.81
Graham Number95.4
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.16 |
F-Score4
WACC8.02%
ROIC/WACC1.17
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year78.23%
EBIT Next 3Y26.76%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
What is the valuation status for MPC stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 3.89% in the next year.
Is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 39.32%.