MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MPC • US56585A1025

Current stock price

222.62 USD
-0.9 (-0.4%)
At close:
222.62 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This MPC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. MPC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
  • MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • In the past 5 years MPC has always been profitable.
  • MPC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
MPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of MPC (4.82%) is better than 62.20% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 23.35%, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 87.56% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of MPC (10.66%) is better than 85.65% of its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is significantly below the industry average of 23.10%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROIC 10.66%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
MPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

  • MPC has a Profit Margin (2.99%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has declined.
  • MPC has a Operating Margin of 6.01%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 62.20% of its industry peers.
  • MPC's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • The Gross Margin of MPC (11.55%) is worse than 69.86% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
MPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10 -10 15

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4

2. MPC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is still creating some value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
  • MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for MPC is higher compared to a year ago.
MPC Yearly Shares OutstandingMPC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M
MPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 3.26 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.26, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.38% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 6.90, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 6.90 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 6.90, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.77% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.76. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of MPC (1.76) is worse than 75.12% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Altman-Z 3.26
ROIC/WACC1.48
WACC7.21%
MPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.26 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of MPC (1.26) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.74 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • MPC has a worse Quick ratio (0.74) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
MPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. MPC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 15.63% over the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, MPC shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -25.91% on average per year.
  • MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -3.80%.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 14.39% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 22.08% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.69% on average per year.
EPS Next Y20.47%
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue Next Year-0.28%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 3Y0.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
MPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 50B 100B 150B
MPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 10 20

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4

4. MPC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 20.61, MPC is valued on the expensive side.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • MPC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 26.78.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.11, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of MPC.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 62.20% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.54, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 20.61
Fwd PE 17.11
MPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • 60.77% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MPC, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 73.21% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 13.76
EV/EBITDA 8.36
MPC Per share dataMPC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 100 200 300 400

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 15.23% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.01
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

7

5. MPC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.79%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.16, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
  • MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.79%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.94%, which is quite nice.
  • MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years14
MPC Yearly Dividends per shareMPC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

  • 28.20% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
  • MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP28.2%
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
MPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B -5B 10B
MPC Dividend Payout.MPC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MPC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MPC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

NYSE:MPC (4/10/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 222.62 0 (0%)

222.62

-0.9 (-0.4%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners77.09%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.16%
Ins Owner Change0.21%
Market Cap65.56B
Revenue(TTM)135.05B
Net Income(TTM)4.04B
Analysts72.8
Price Target230.76 (3.66%)
Short Float %2.74%
Short Ratio3.04
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.79%
Yearly Dividend3.73
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
DP28.2%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-Date02-18
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)17.37%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)40.04%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)27.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)55.08%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)575.13%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)392%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)299.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.28%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.59%
PT rev (1m)3.68%
PT rev (3m)2.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)69.06%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-23.95%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-11.44%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.64%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.13%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.25%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.91%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 20.61
Fwd PE 17.11
P/S 0.49
P/FCF 13.76
P/OCF 7.95
P/B 3.79
P/tB 12.51
EV/EBITDA 8.36
EPS(TTM)10.8
EY4.85%
EPS(NY)13.01
Fwd EY5.84%
FCF(TTM)16.17
FCFY7.27%
OCF(TTM)28
OCFY12.58%
SpS458.2
BVpS58.74
TBVpS17.8
PEG (NY)1.01
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number119.48
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROCE 12.63%
ROIC 10.66%
ROICexc 11.31%
ROICexgc 14.12%
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
FCFM 3.53%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
ROICexc(3y)14.48%
ROICexc(5y)15.91%
ROICexgc(3y)17.29%
ROICexgc(5y)18.8%
ROCE(3y)15.34%
ROCE(5y)16.33%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-27.48%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.61
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Debt/EBITDA 2.68
Cap/Depr 107.23%
Cap/Sales 2.58%
Interest Coverage 6.66
Cash Conversion 72.59%
Profit Quality 117.91%
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
Altman-Z 3.26
F-Score7
WACC7.21%
ROIC/WACC1.48
Cap/Depr(3y)80.1%
Cap/Depr(5y)71.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.88%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.64%
Profit Quality(3y)140.82%
Profit Quality(5y)109.66%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
EPS Next Y20.47%
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%
Revenue Next Year-0.28%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.78%
Revenue Next 3Y0.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%
EBIT growth 1Y19.95%
EBIT growth 3Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year71.17%
EBIT Next 3Y19.47%
EBIT Next 5Y12.5%
FCF growth 1Y-22.26%
FCF growth 3Y-30.07%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-4.75%
OCF growth 3Y-20.4%
OCF growth 5Y27.82%

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to MPC.


Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) stock?

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What is the valuation of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 20.61 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.79.


How sustainable is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) stock?

The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 28.2%.