MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MPC • US56585A1025

Current stock price

251.91 USD
+3.6 (+1.45%)
At close:
251.99 USD
+0.08 (+0.03%)
After Hours:

This MPC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. MPC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • Each year in the past 5 years MPC has been profitable.
  • In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
MPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of MPC (4.82%) is better than 61.72% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of MPC (23.35%) is better than 87.56% of its industry peers.
  • With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 10.66%, MPC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.17% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is significantly below the industry average of 23.05%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROIC 10.66%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
MPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

  • MPC has a Profit Margin (2.99%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • MPC's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • MPC has a Operating Margin of 6.01%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 62.68% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has declined.
  • MPC has a Gross Margin of 11.55%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 69.38% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
MPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10 -10 15

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4

2. MPC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 5 years ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
  • The debt/assets ratio for MPC is higher compared to a year ago.
MPC Yearly Shares OutstandingMPC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M
MPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 3.32 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.32, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.38% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 6.90, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 6.90 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 6.90, MPC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.29% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.76 is on the high side and indicates that MPC has dependencies on debt financing.
  • MPC has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.76) than 75.12% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Altman-Z 3.32
ROIC/WACC1.43
WACC7.44%
MPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.26 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • MPC has a Current ratio (1.26) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.74 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • MPC has a Quick ratio of 0.74. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 64.59% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
MPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. MPC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 15.63% over the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, MPC shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -25.91% on average per year.
  • MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -3.80%.
  • Measured over the past years, MPC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.39% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%

3.2 Future

  • MPC is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 22.08% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.69% on average per year.
EPS Next Y20.47%
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue Next Year-0.79%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.44%
Revenue Next 3Y0.9%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
MPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 50B 100B 150B
MPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 10 20

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4

4. MPC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 23.32 indicates a rather expensive valuation of MPC.
  • MPC's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 24.88, MPC is valued at the same level.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.36, MPC is valued on the expensive side.
  • 61.24% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MPC, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.19), we can say MPC is valued inline with the index average.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 23.33
Fwd PE 19.36
MPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as MPC.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 69.38% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 15.58
EV/EBITDA 9.01
MPC Per share dataMPC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 100 200 300 400

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 15.23% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.14
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

7

5. MPC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.70%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.29, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.90, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.7%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.94%!
  • MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
MPC Yearly Dividends per shareMPC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

  • MPC pays out 28.20% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
  • MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP28.2%
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
MPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B -5B 10B
MPC Dividend Payout.MPC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MPC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MPC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

NYSE:MPC (3/27/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 251.99 +0.08 (+0.03%)

251.91

+3.6 (+1.45%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)05-04
Inst Owners76.98%
Inst Owner Change-0.57%
Ins Owners0.15%
Ins Owner Change0.21%
Market Cap74.25B
Revenue(TTM)135.05B
Net Income(TTM)4.04B
Analysts72.8
Price Target204.06 (-18.99%)
Short Float %2.76%
Short Ratio3.17
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.7%
Yearly Dividend3.73
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
DP28.2%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date02-18
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)17.37%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)40.04%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)27.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)55.08%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)575.13%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)392%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)299.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.28%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.59%
PT rev (1m)2.35%
PT rev (3m)-0.16%
EPS NQ rev (1m)43.82%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-34.39%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.34%
EPS NY rev (3m)-14.64%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.64%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.73%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.87%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 23.33
Fwd PE 19.36
P/S 0.55
P/FCF 15.58
P/OCF 9
P/B 4.29
P/tB 14.15
EV/EBITDA 9.01
EPS(TTM)10.8
EY4.29%
EPS(NY)13.01
Fwd EY5.16%
FCF(TTM)16.17
FCFY6.42%
OCF(TTM)28
OCFY11.12%
SpS458.2
BVpS58.74
TBVpS17.8
PEG (NY)1.14
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number119.48
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROCE 12.63%
ROIC 10.66%
ROICexc 11.31%
ROICexgc 14.12%
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
FCFM 3.53%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
ROICexc(3y)14.48%
ROICexc(5y)15.91%
ROICexgc(3y)17.29%
ROICexgc(5y)18.8%
ROCE(3y)15.34%
ROCE(5y)16.33%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-27.48%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.61
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Debt/EBITDA 2.68
Cap/Depr 107.23%
Cap/Sales 2.58%
Interest Coverage 6.66
Cash Conversion 72.59%
Profit Quality 117.91%
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
Altman-Z 3.32
F-Score7
WACC7.44%
ROIC/WACC1.43
Cap/Depr(3y)80.1%
Cap/Depr(5y)71.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.88%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.64%
Profit Quality(3y)140.82%
Profit Quality(5y)109.66%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
EPS Next Y20.47%
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%
Revenue Next Year-0.79%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.44%
Revenue Next 3Y0.9%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%
EBIT growth 1Y19.95%
EBIT growth 3Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year71.17%
EBIT Next 3Y19.47%
EBIT Next 5Y12.5%
FCF growth 1Y-22.26%
FCF growth 3Y-30.07%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-4.75%
OCF growth 3Y-20.4%
OCF growth 5Y27.82%

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to MPC.


Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of MPC stock?

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for MPC stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 23.33 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 4.29.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MPC stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 20.47% in the next year.