MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
199.98 USD
+5.4 (+2.78%)
198.325 USD
-1.66 (-0.83%)
MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. MPC does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years MPC had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
MPC has a Return On Assets (3.53%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Equity of MPC (17.56%) is better than 80.95% of its industry peers.
MPC's Return On Invested Capital of 9.41% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 79.52% of its industry peers.
MPC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 17.20%. This is below the industry average of 21.85%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (9.41%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC has a worse Profit Margin (2.13%) than 60.48% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC has a worse Operating Margin (4.97%) than 65.24% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC has a worse Gross Margin (10.43%) than 70.48% of its industry peers.
MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.18. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
MPC has a better Altman-Z score (3.18) than 84.29% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 7.23, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 7.23 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 7.23, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
MPC's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 76.19% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.18 |
ROIC/WACC1.21
WACC7.81%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.19, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 51.90% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.73, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 64.29% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.24%.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 14.10% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.85% in the last year.
MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.70% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
MPC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 16.41% yearly.
MPC is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -2.18% yearly.
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 26.66, MPC can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 60.00% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
MPC is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.89, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.04 indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (34.59), we can say MPC is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.04 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.67% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14.22 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.35% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)6.85
PEG (5Y)1.89
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.06%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 5.89.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
39.32% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
199.98
+5.4 (+2.78%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.57%
Inst Owner Change-4.33%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.21%
Market Cap60.80B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts74.17
Price Target201.62 (0.82%)
Short Float %2.43%
Short Ratio4.14
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)3.8%
PT rev (3m)6.3%
EPS NQ rev (1m)21.39%
EPS NQ rev (3m)61.24%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.03%
EPS NY rev (3m)16.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.49%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.35%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.04 | ||
| P/S | 0.45 | ||
| P/FCF | 14.22 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.23 | ||
| P/B | 3.71 | ||
| P/tB | 7.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY3.75%
EPS(NY)13.3
Fwd EY6.65%
FCF(TTM)14.06
FCFY7.03%
OCF(TTM)24.31
OCFY12.16%
SpS444.88
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)6.85
PEG (5Y)1.89
Graham Number95.4
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.18 |
F-Score4
WACC7.81%
ROIC/WACC1.21
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year78.23%
EBIT Next 3Y26.76%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
What is the valuation status for MPC stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 3.89% in the next year.
Is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 39.32%.