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MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:MPC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US56585A1025 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

153.74  -4.53 (-2.86%)

After market: 154.25 +0.51 (+0.33%)

Fundamental Rating

4

MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. MPC is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years MPC reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
MPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10B 20B

1.2 Ratios

With a Return On Assets value of 5.66%, MPC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.92% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Return On Equity of 23.88%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 80.39% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 10.67%, MPC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.10% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is significantly below the industry average of 28.75%.
The 3 year average ROIC (15.09%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(10.67%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.66%
ROE 23.88%
ROIC 10.67%
ROA(3y)12.93%
ROA(5y)5.98%
ROE(3y)43.04%
ROE(5y)18.54%
ROIC(3y)15.09%
ROIC(5y)N/A
MPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

The Profit Margin of MPC (3.15%) is worse than 66.67% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
MPC has a Operating Margin of 5.53%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 72.55% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has grown nicely.
MPC's Gross Margin of 10.72% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 71.57% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 5.53%
PM (TTM) 3.15%
GM 10.72%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y11.98%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y14.96%
GM growth 3Y45.22%
GM growth 5Y5.42%
MPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5 -5 10 -10 15

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4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MPC is creating value.
MPC has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
MPC Yearly Shares OutstandingMPC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M
MPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 3.34 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
MPC has a better Altman-Z score (3.34) than 78.43% of its industry peers.
MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 5.30. This is a neutral value as MPC would need 5.30 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC (5.30) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.27 is on the high side and indicates that MPC has dependencies on debt financing.
MPC's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.27 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 76.96% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.27
Debt/FCF 5.3
Altman-Z 3.34
ROIC/WACC1.33
WACC8%
MPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.23 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC has a Current ratio (1.23) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.76 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC has a Quick ratio of 0.76. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.23
Quick Ratio 0.76
MPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10B 20B 30B

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2

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -60.31% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.31%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-80.65%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-9.12%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.80% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -3.89% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-8.65%
EPS Next 2Y14.74%
EPS Next 3Y19.64%
EPS Next 5Y13.8%
Revenue Next Year-6.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.13%
Revenue Next 3Y-5.33%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.89%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
MPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 50B 100B 150B
MPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0 10 20

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 16.46, the valuation of MPC can be described as correct.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
MPC is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.63, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 18.02, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of MPC.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as MPC.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.68), we can say MPC is valued slightly cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 16.46
Fwd PE 18.02
MPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.08% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 9.12
EV/EBITDA 6.38
MPC Per share dataMPC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 100 200 300 400

4.3 Compensation for Growth

MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 19.64% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.17
EPS Next 2Y14.74%
EPS Next 3Y19.64%

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6

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.36%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.75.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.29, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.36%

5.2 History

The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 13.40%!
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.4%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
MPC Yearly Dividends per shareMPC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

MPC pays out 25.95% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
MPC's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP25.95%
EPS Next 2Y14.74%
EPS Next 3Y19.64%
MPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5B -5B 10B
MPC Dividend Payout.MPC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MPC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

NYSE:MPC (2/21/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 154.25 +0.51 (+0.33%)

153.74

-4.53 (-2.86%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)02-04 2025-02-04/bmo
Earnings (Next)04-28 2025-04-28/amc
Inst Owners76.35%
Inst Owner Change1.42%
Ins Owners0.2%
Ins Owner Change0.05%
Market Cap48.58B
Analysts73.91
Price Target171.24 (11.38%)
Short Float %2.4%
Short Ratio2.55
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.36%
Yearly Dividend3.07
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.4%
DP25.95%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date02-19 2025-02-19 (0.91)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)60.12%
Min EPS beat(2)32.15%
Max EPS beat(2)88.08%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)51.23%
Min EPS beat(4)5.62%
Max EPS beat(4)88.08%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)30.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)37.51%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)39.35%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)7.46%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)8.26%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.27%
Min Revenue beat(4)2.72%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)4.59%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)10.95%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)14.55%
PT rev (1m)-1.62%
PT rev (3m)-3.09%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-98.4%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-98.56%
EPS NY rev (1m)-6.39%
EPS NY rev (3m)-11.12%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.61%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.59%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.31%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.96%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 16.46
Fwd PE 18.02
P/S 0.34
P/FCF 9.12
P/OCF 6.41
P/B 2.57
P/tB 4.55
EV/EBITDA 6.38
EPS(TTM)9.34
EY6.08%
EPS(NY)8.53
Fwd EY5.55%
FCF(TTM)16.85
FCFY10.96%
OCF(TTM)23.99
OCFY15.6%
SpS454.62
BVpS59.91
TBVpS33.83
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.17
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.66%
ROE 23.88%
ROCE 13.51%
ROIC 10.67%
ROICexc 11.7%
ROICexgc 13.82%
OM 5.53%
PM (TTM) 3.15%
GM 10.72%
FCFM 3.71%
ROA(3y)12.93%
ROA(5y)5.98%
ROE(3y)43.04%
ROE(5y)18.54%
ROIC(3y)15.09%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)18.02%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)21.07%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)19.11%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y30.1%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y33.77%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y11.98%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y14.96%
GM growth 3Y45.22%
GM growth 5Y5.42%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.8
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.27
Debt/FCF 5.3
Debt/EBITDA 2.13
Cap/Depr 67.54%
Cap/Sales 1.57%
Interest Coverage 6.58
Cash Conversion 67.2%
Profit Quality 117.81%
Current Ratio 1.23
Quick Ratio 0.76
Altman-Z 3.34
F-Score5
WACC8%
ROIC/WACC1.33
Cap/Depr(3y)58.65%
Cap/Depr(5y)81.25%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.54%
Profit Quality(3y)84.08%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.31%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-80.65%
EPS Next Y-8.65%
EPS Next 2Y14.74%
EPS Next 3Y19.64%
EPS Next 5Y13.8%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%-9.12%
Revenue Next Year-6.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.13%
Revenue Next 3Y-5.33%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.89%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.57%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y25%
EBIT Next Year-25.49%
EBIT Next 3Y-6.14%
EBIT Next 5Y-7.38%
FCF growth 1Y-60.48%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y36.5%
OCF growth 1Y-51.57%
OCF growth 3Y80.04%
OCF growth 5Y18.05%