MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MPC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US56585A1025 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, MPC scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. MPC was compared to 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. MPC is valued expensive and it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
MPC has a Return On Assets of 2.98%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 47.39% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 14.83%, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.04% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a better Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) than 65.88% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is significantly below the industry average of 23.70%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC's Profit Margin of 1.75% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 61.61% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of MPC (4.09%) is worse than 68.25% of its industry peers.
MPC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of MPC (9.38%) is worse than 71.56% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for MPC is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.12. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
MPC's Altman-Z score of 3.12 is amongst the best of the industry. MPC outperforms 83.41% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 6.93, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 6.93 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 6.93, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.82% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
MPC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 76.78% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.12 |
ROIC/WACC0.98
WACC8.13%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.19, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 53.55% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.73, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 67.30% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -67.43% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 14.10% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -6.18% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.70% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-67.43%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-109.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.18%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-4.1%
3.2 Future
MPC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.91% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -3.70% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-10.86%
EPS Next 2Y13.8%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y17.92%
Revenue Next Year-7.66%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.53%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 27.00 indicates a quite expensive valuation of MPC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.45), we can say MPC is valued inline with the index average.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.55, the valuation of MPC can be described as correct.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 21.90.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.55 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 68.72% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 15.23% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.92
EPS Next 2Y13.8%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.17%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
MPC's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 6.66.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.17% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
46.88% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y13.8%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
176.05
+1.59 (+0.91%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners76.81%
Inst Owner Change0.22%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change1.09%
Market Cap54.08B
Analysts77.39
Price Target171.3 (-2.7%)
Short Float %3.01%
Short Ratio3.52
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.17% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)7.9%
PT rev (3m)0.74%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.6%
EPS NQ rev (3m)8.47%
EPS NY rev (1m)8.16%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.42%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.34%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.99%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.36%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.55 | ||
| P/S | 0.39 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.13 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.65 | ||
| P/B | 3.3 | ||
| P/tB | 6.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.4 |
EPS(TTM)6.52
EY3.7%
EPS(NY)12.1
Fwd EY6.87%
FCF(TTM)14.51
FCFY8.24%
OCF(TTM)23.01
OCFY13.07%
SpS452.6
BVpS53.37
TBVpS26.54
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.92
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.12 |
F-Score4
WACC8.13%
ROIC/WACC0.98
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-67.43%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-109.3%
EPS Next Y-10.86%
EPS Next 2Y13.8%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y17.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.18%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-4.1%
Revenue Next Year-7.66%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.53%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.7%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year67.08%
EBIT Next 3Y25.56%
EBIT Next 5Y13.28%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%