MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MPC • US56585A1025

Current stock price

244.18 USD
-0.98 (-0.4%)
At close:
242.6 USD
-1.58 (-0.65%)
After Hours:

This MPC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. MPC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
  • MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • MPC had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • Each year in the past 5 years MPC had a positive operating cash flow.
MPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of MPC (4.82%) is better than 61.72% of its industry peers.
  • With an excellent Return On Equity value of 23.35%, MPC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 87.56% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC has a better Return On Invested Capital (10.66%) than 85.17% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MPC is significantly below the industry average of 23.14%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROIC 10.66%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
MPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

  • MPC has a Profit Margin of 2.99%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 41.63% of its industry peers.
  • MPC's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • With a Operating Margin value of 6.01%, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 62.20% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • MPC's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 11.55%, MPC is doing worse than 69.38% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
MPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10 -10 15

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4

2. MPC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
MPC Yearly Shares OutstandingMPC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M
MPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 3.31 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • MPC's Altman-Z score of 3.31 is amongst the best of the industry. MPC outperforms 80.38% of its industry peers.
  • MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.90. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 6.90 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 6.90, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.77% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.76. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of MPC (1.76) is worse than 75.12% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Altman-Z 3.31
ROIC/WACC1.45
WACC7.34%
MPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

  • MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.26. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • MPC has a Current ratio (1.26) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.74 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • MPC has a Quick ratio of 0.74. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 64.11% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
MPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. MPC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 15.63% over the past year.
  • The earnings per share for MPC have been decreasing by -25.91% on average. This is quite bad
  • Looking at the last year, MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -3.80% in the last year.
  • MPC shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.39% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 22.08% on average per year.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.69% on average per year.
EPS Next Y20.47%
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue Next Year-0.79%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.44%
Revenue Next 3Y0.9%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
MPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 50B 100B 150B
MPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 10 20

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4

4. MPC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 22.61 indicates a rather expensive valuation of MPC.
  • MPC's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.35, MPC is valued at the same level.
  • MPC is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.77.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 61.72% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • MPC is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.61, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.61
Fwd PE 18.77
MPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • 69.86% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MPC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 15.1
EV/EBITDA 8.92
MPC Per share dataMPC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 100 200 300 400

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • MPC's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 15.23% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.1
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

7

5. MPC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.61%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.20, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
  • MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.61%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.94%!
  • MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
MPC Yearly Dividends per shareMPC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

  • MPC pays out 28.20% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
  • MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP28.2%
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
MPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B -5B 10B
MPC Dividend Payout.MPC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MPC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MPC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

NYSE:MPC (3/31/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 242.6 -1.58 (-0.65%)

244.18

-0.98 (-0.4%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)05-04
Inst Owners76.98%
Inst Owner Change-0.57%
Ins Owners0.15%
Ins Owner Change0.21%
Market Cap71.97B
Revenue(TTM)135.05B
Net Income(TTM)4.04B
Analysts72.8
Price Target211.56 (-13.36%)
Short Float %2.74%
Short Ratio3.04
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.61%
Yearly Dividend3.73
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
DP28.2%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date02-18
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)17.37%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)40.04%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)27.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)55.08%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)575.13%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)392%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)299.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.28%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.59%
PT rev (1m)3.68%
PT rev (3m)2.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)41.86%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-36.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.34%
EPS NY rev (3m)-11.44%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.64%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.73%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.39%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 22.61
Fwd PE 18.77
P/S 0.53
P/FCF 15.1
P/OCF 8.72
P/B 4.16
P/tB 13.72
EV/EBITDA 8.92
EPS(TTM)10.8
EY4.42%
EPS(NY)13.01
Fwd EY5.33%
FCF(TTM)16.17
FCFY6.62%
OCF(TTM)28
OCFY11.47%
SpS458.2
BVpS58.74
TBVpS17.8
PEG (NY)1.1
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number119.48
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROCE 12.63%
ROIC 10.66%
ROICexc 11.31%
ROICexgc 14.12%
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
FCFM 3.53%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
ROICexc(3y)14.48%
ROICexc(5y)15.91%
ROICexgc(3y)17.29%
ROICexgc(5y)18.8%
ROCE(3y)15.34%
ROCE(5y)16.33%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-27.48%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.61
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Debt/EBITDA 2.68
Cap/Depr 107.23%
Cap/Sales 2.58%
Interest Coverage 6.66
Cash Conversion 72.59%
Profit Quality 117.91%
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
Altman-Z 3.31
F-Score7
WACC7.34%
ROIC/WACC1.45
Cap/Depr(3y)80.1%
Cap/Depr(5y)71.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.88%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.64%
Profit Quality(3y)140.82%
Profit Quality(5y)109.66%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
EPS Next Y20.47%
EPS Next 2Y13.33%
EPS Next 3Y15.23%
EPS Next 5Y22.08%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%
Revenue Next Year-0.79%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.44%
Revenue Next 3Y0.9%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.69%
EBIT growth 1Y19.95%
EBIT growth 3Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year71.17%
EBIT Next 3Y19.47%
EBIT Next 5Y12.5%
FCF growth 1Y-22.26%
FCF growth 3Y-30.07%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-4.75%
OCF growth 3Y-20.4%
OCF growth 5Y27.82%

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to MPC.


Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) stock?

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What is the valuation of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 22.61 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 4.16.


How sustainable is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) stock?

The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 28.2%.