MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
193.76 USD
+1.04 (+0.54%)
193.76 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, MPC scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. MPC was compared to 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. MPC does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of MPC (2.98%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
MPC's Return On Equity of 14.83% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 74.29% of its industry peers.
MPC has a better Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) than 71.43% of its industry peers.
MPC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 17.20%. This is below the industry average of 21.78%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC has a worse Profit Margin (1.75%) than 60.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
The Operating Margin of MPC (4.09%) is worse than 66.19% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC's Gross Margin of 9.38% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 70.95% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MPC is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for MPC is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.16 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 3.16, MPC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as MPC would need 6.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 6.93, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.62% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.64, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 76.67% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.16 |
ROIC/WACC1.01
WACC7.92%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.19, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.86% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Quick Ratio of 1.19. This is a bad value and indicates that MPC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.73, MPC is doing worse than 65.71% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -40.24% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -6.47%.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.47%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.41% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
MPC is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -2.18% yearly.
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 25.83, which means the current valuation is very expensive for MPC.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit more expensive than 60.48% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.83), we can say MPC is valued inline with the index average.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 14.57, which indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (32.68), we can say MPC is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.57 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 67.62% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.21 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.95 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.35% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)6.64
PEG (5Y)1.83
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.08%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.76, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.39, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.08% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 46.88% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
193.76
+1.04 (+0.54%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.57%
Inst Owner Change-3.59%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.21%
Market Cap58.91B
Revenue(TTM)140.38B
Net Income(TTM)2.43B
Analysts74.17
Price Target201.62 (4.06%)
Short Float %2.43%
Short Ratio4.14
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.08% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)5%
PT rev (3m)8.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.5%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.6%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.79%
EPS NY rev (3m)14.7%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.15%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.6%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.46%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.57 | ||
| P/S | 0.42 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.21 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.33 | ||
| P/B | 3.59 | ||
| P/tB | 7.23 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.95 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY3.87%
EPS(NY)13.3
Fwd EY6.86%
FCF(TTM)14.66
FCFY7.57%
OCF(TTM)23.25
OCFY12%
SpS457.35
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)6.64
PEG (5Y)1.83
Graham Number95.4
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.16 |
F-Score4
WACC7.92%
ROIC/WACC1.01
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.47%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year78.23%
EBIT Next 3Y26.76%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
What is the valuation status for MPC stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 3.89% in the next year.
Is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 46.88%.