MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MPC • US56585A1025

Current stock price

232.59 USD
+5.38 (+2.37%)
At close:
233.1 USD
+0.51 (+0.22%)
After Hours:

This MPC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. MPC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year MPC was profitable.
  • MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Each year in the past 5 years MPC has been profitable.
  • MPC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
MPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMPC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • MPC has a better Return On Assets (4.82%) than 62.20% of its industry peers.
  • With an excellent Return On Equity value of 23.35%, MPC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 87.08% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC has a Return On Invested Capital of 10.66%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 84.69% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MPC is significantly below the industry average of 22.52%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROIC 10.66%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
MPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMPC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40 -40

1.3 Margins

  • MPC's Profit Margin of 2.99% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 41.15% of its industry peers.
  • MPC's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • MPC has a Operating Margin of 6.01%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 62.68% of its industry peers.
  • MPC's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • With a Gross Margin value of 11.55%, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 70.33% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • MPC's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
MPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMPC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 -5 10 -10 15

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4

2. MPC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is still creating some value.
  • MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
  • MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
MPC Yearly Shares OutstandingMPC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M
MPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMPC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

  • MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.28. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
  • The Altman-Z score of MPC (3.28) is better than 78.95% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 6.90, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 6.90 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • MPC has a Debt to FCF ratio of 6.90. This is in the better half of the industry: MPC outperforms 62.20% of its industry peers.
  • MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.76. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • MPC's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.76 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 77.03% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Altman-Z 3.28
ROIC/WACC1.46
WACC7.28%
MPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMPC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.26 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.26, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.74 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • With a Quick ratio value of 0.74, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 64.11% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
MPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMPC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. MPC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • MPC shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 15.63%, which is quite good.
  • Measured over the past years, MPC shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -25.91% on average per year.
  • MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -3.80%.
  • Measured over the past years, MPC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.39% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%

3.2 Future

  • MPC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 17.52% yearly.
  • The Revenue is expected to decrease by -1.32% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y53.22%
EPS Next 2Y19.84%
EPS Next 3Y14.33%
EPS Next 5Y17.52%
Revenue Next Year5.51%
Revenue Next 2Y0.59%
Revenue Next 3Y0.26%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.32%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
MPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMPC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 50B 100B 150B
MPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMPC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 10 20

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5

4. MPC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 21.54 indicates a rather expensive valuation of MPC.
  • MPC's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • MPC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.91.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.06 indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 65.07% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MPC is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.99, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 21.54
Fwd PE 14.06
MPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMPC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
  • MPC's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. MPC is cheaper than 70.33% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 14.37
EV/EBITDA 8.59
MPC Per share dataMPC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 100 200 300 400

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • MPC's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.33% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.4
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y19.84%
EPS Next 3Y14.33%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

7

5. MPC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.81%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.22, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
  • MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.81%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.94%, which is quite nice.
  • MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years14
MPC Yearly Dividends per shareMPC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 2 3

5.3 Sustainability

  • MPC pays out 28.20% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
  • MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP28.2%
EPS Next 2Y19.84%
EPS Next 3Y14.33%
MPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMPC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B -5B 10B
MPC Dividend Payout.MPC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MPC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MPC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP

NYSE:MPC (4/28/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 233.1 +0.51 (+0.22%)

232.59

+5.38 (+2.37%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Industry Strength89.44
Industry Growth90.68
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners77.09%
Inst Owner Change-0.03%
Ins Owners0.16%
Ins Owner Change0.21%
Market Cap68.50B
Revenue(TTM)135.05B
Net Income(TTM)4.04B
Analysts72.8
Price Target232.62 (0.01%)
Short Float %2.16%
Short Ratio2.44
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.81%
Yearly Dividend3.73
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.94%
DP28.2%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-Date02-18
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)17.37%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)40.04%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)27.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)55.08%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)575.13%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)392%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)299.6%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.09%
Min Revenue beat(4)3.47%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.28%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.59%
PT rev (1m)14%
PT rev (3m)14.98%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-38.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-51.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)27.18%
EPS NY rev (3m)20.68%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)6.72%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.7%
Revenue NY rev (1m)6.35%
Revenue NY rev (3m)10.7%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 21.54
Fwd PE 14.06
P/S 0.51
P/FCF 14.37
P/OCF 8.3
P/B 3.96
P/tB 13.06
EV/EBITDA 8.59
EPS(TTM)10.8
EY4.64%
EPS(NY)16.55
Fwd EY7.11%
FCF(TTM)16.19
FCFY6.96%
OCF(TTM)28.02
OCFY12.05%
SpS458.57
BVpS58.79
TBVpS17.81
PEG (NY)0.4
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number119.525 (-48.61%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.82%
ROE 23.35%
ROCE 12.63%
ROIC 10.66%
ROICexc 11.31%
ROICexgc 14.12%
OM 6.01%
PM (TTM) 2.99%
GM 11.55%
FCFM 3.53%
ROA(3y)6.81%
ROA(5y)9.59%
ROE(3y)27.46%
ROE(5y)34.38%
ROIC(3y)12.95%
ROIC(5y)13.78%
ROICexc(3y)14.48%
ROICexc(5y)15.91%
ROICexgc(3y)17.29%
ROICexgc(5y)18.8%
ROCE(3y)15.34%
ROCE(5y)16.33%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-27.48%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-19.23%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-28.26%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-8.77%
GM growth 5Y19.8%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.61
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.76
Debt/FCF 6.9
Debt/EBITDA 2.68
Cap/Depr 107.23%
Cap/Sales 2.58%
Interest Coverage 6.66
Cash Conversion 72.59%
Profit Quality 117.91%
Current Ratio 1.26
Quick Ratio 0.74
Altman-Z 3.28
F-Score7
WACC7.28%
ROIC/WACC1.46
Cap/Depr(3y)80.1%
Cap/Depr(5y)71.82%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.88%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.64%
Profit Quality(3y)140.82%
Profit Quality(5y)109.66%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)15.63%
EPS 3Y-25.91%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%428.57%
EPS Next Y53.22%
EPS Next 2Y19.84%
EPS Next 3Y14.33%
EPS Next 5Y17.52%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.8%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.95%
Revenue growth 5Y14.39%
Sales Q2Q%-0.13%
Revenue Next Year5.51%
Revenue Next 2Y0.59%
Revenue Next 3Y0.26%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.32%
EBIT growth 1Y19.95%
EBIT growth 3Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year91.26%
EBIT Next 3Y21.08%
EBIT Next 5Y8.53%
FCF growth 1Y-22.26%
FCF growth 3Y-30.07%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-4.75%
OCF growth 3Y-20.4%
OCF growth 5Y27.82%

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to MPC.


Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) stock?

MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What is the valuation of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 21.54 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.96.


How sustainable is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) stock?

The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 28.2%.