MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
196.22 USD
+0.26 (+0.13%)
198.12 USD
+1.9 (+0.97%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to MPC. MPC was compared to 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. MPC has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years MPC had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
MPC's Return On Assets of 2.98% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 49.29% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 14.83%, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.93% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 7.97%, MPC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.09% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 17.20%. This is below the industry average of 21.54%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.97%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC has a worse Profit Margin (1.75%) than 60.19% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
MPC has a Operating Margin of 4.09%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 66.82% of its industry peers.
MPC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of MPC (9.38%) is worse than 71.09% of its industry peers.
MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is creating value.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for MPC is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.17 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
MPC has a better Altman-Z score (3.17) than 81.52% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 6.93, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 6.93 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MPC's Debt to FCF ratio of 6.93 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 57.82% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the high side and indicates that MPC has dependencies on debt financing.
MPC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 76.78% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.17 |
ROIC/WACC1.01
WACC7.91%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC's Current ratio of 1.19 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 52.13% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Quick Ratio of 1.19. This is a bad value and indicates that MPC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MPC has a Quick ratio of 0.73. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 65.88% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -66.21% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
Looking at the last year, MPC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -10.01% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 18.62% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -2.18% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-0.13%
EPS Next 2Y15.29%
EPS Next 3Y14.97%
EPS Next 5Y18.62%
Revenue Next Year-7.8%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.36%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.24%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 30.85, MPC can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 61.61% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.91.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.80, which indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.92. MPC is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.8 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.35% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.97% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.19
EPS Next 2Y15.29%
EPS Next 3Y14.97%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.01%.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.30.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.34.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.01% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
46.88% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of MPC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP46.88%
EPS Next 2Y15.29%
EPS Next 3Y14.97%
196.22
+0.26 (+0.13%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.57%
Inst Owner Change-0.9%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change0.11%
Market Cap59.65B
Revenue(TTM)134.78B
Net Income(TTM)2.43B
Analysts73.91
Price Target194.24 (-1.01%)
Short Float %2.59%
Short Ratio4.25
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.01% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP46.88%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2210.63%
Min EPS beat(2)55.08%
Max EPS beat(2)4366.18%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)1135.37%
Min EPS beat(4)32.15%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)580.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)392.19%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)309.05%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.59%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)5.49%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.76%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)13.9%
PT rev (1m)1.16%
PT rev (3m)4.6%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.5%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-4.11%
EPS NY rev (1m)6.95%
EPS NY rev (3m)11.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.15%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.2%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.35%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.11%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.8 | ||
| P/S | 0.43 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.38 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.44 | ||
| P/B | 3.64 | ||
| P/tB | 7.32 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.06 |
EPS(TTM)6.36
EY3.24%
EPS(NY)12.42
Fwd EY6.33%
FCF(TTM)14.66
FCFY7.47%
OCF(TTM)23.25
OCFY11.85%
SpS457.35
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.19
Graham Number87.85
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.98% | ||
| ROE | 14.83% | ||
| ROCE | 9.66% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.26% | ||
| OM | 4.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.75% | ||
| GM | 9.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.21% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.98 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.05% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.88% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 183.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.17 |
F-Score4
WACC7.91%
ROIC/WACC1.01
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-66.21%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%-3.88%
EPS Next Y-0.13%
EPS Next 2Y15.29%
EPS Next 3Y14.97%
EPS Next 5Y18.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.01%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%-11.11%
Revenue Next Year-7.8%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.36%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.24%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.59%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year78.23%
EBIT Next 3Y26.76%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-71.28%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-60.52%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
What is the valuation status for MPC stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to decline by -0.13% in the next year.
Is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 46.88%.