MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
176.17 USD
-0.9 (-0.51%)
176.1 USD
-0.07 (-0.04%)
MPC gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 208 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has an average financial health and profitability rating. MPC has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years MPC 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
MPC has a Return On Assets of 3.53%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 53.37% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Return On Equity of 17.56%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 84.62% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Return On Invested Capital of 9.41%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 81.25% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MPC is below the industry average of 21.83%.
The 3 year average ROIC (17.20%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(9.41%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC has a Profit Margin (2.13%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC's Operating Margin of 4.97% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 64.42% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC's Gross Margin of 10.43% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 70.67% of its industry peers.
MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is creating value.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.11 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.11, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.13% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 7.23, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 7.23 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MPC's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.23 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 57.21% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of MPC (1.64) is worse than 75.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.11 |
ROIC/WACC1.2
WACC7.86%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of MPC (1.19) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC's Quick ratio of 0.73 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 63.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.24%.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -5.85%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.70% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 20.53% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y9.85%
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
EPS Next 5Y20.53%
Revenue Next Year-3.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.6%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 23.49 indicates a rather expensive valuation of MPC.
MPC's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 27.19.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.99, the valuation of MPC can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 65.38% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.92. MPC is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.99 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 68.27% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.41 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates MPC does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.13% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)2.38
PEG (5Y)1.67
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.26%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.91, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.92, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.26% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 39.32% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
176.17
-0.9 (-0.51%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners75.49%
Inst Owner Change0.25%
Ins Owners0.15%
Ins Owner Change-0.05%
Market Cap52.96B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts73.33
Price Target205.8 (16.82%)
Short Float %3.26%
Short Ratio4.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.26% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)0.69%
PT rev (3m)5.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.59%
EPS NQ rev (3m)67.05%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.42%
EPS NY rev (3m)10%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.11%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)7.77%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.39%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.99 | ||
| P/S | 0.39 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.38 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.17 | ||
| P/B | 3.23 | ||
| P/tB | 6.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.41 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY4.26%
EPS(NY)14.69
Fwd EY8.34%
FCF(TTM)14.22
FCFY8.07%
OCF(TTM)24.59
OCFY13.96%
SpS449.94
BVpS54.54
TBVpS27.12
PEG (NY)2.38
PEG (5Y)1.67
Graham Number95.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.11 |
F-Score4
WACC7.86%
ROIC/WACC1.2
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y9.85%
EPS Next 2Y25.42%
EPS Next 3Y14.13%
EPS Next 5Y20.53%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-3.74%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.6%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.28%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year88.48%
EBIT Next 3Y24.88%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
Can you provide the valuation status for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for MPC stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 23.49 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.23.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MPC stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 9.85% in the next year.