MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MPC - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to MPC. MPC was compared to 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of MPC get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. MPC has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
MPC had positive earnings in the past year.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years MPC had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
MPC has a Return On Assets (5.66%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 23.88%, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 79.61% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of MPC (10.67%) is better than 69.42% of its industry peers.
MPC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 15.09%. This is significantly below the industry average of 28.71%.
The 3 year average ROIC (15.09%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(10.67%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.66% | ||
| ROE | 23.88% | ||
| ROIC | 10.67% |
ROA(3y)12.93%
ROA(5y)5.98%
ROE(3y)43.04%
ROE(5y)18.54%
ROIC(3y)15.09%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of MPC (3.15%) is worse than 66.99% of its industry peers.
MPC's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Operating Margin value of 5.53%, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 72.33% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has grown nicely.
MPC's Gross Margin of 10.72% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 71.36% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MPC has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.15% | ||
| GM | 10.72% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y11.98%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y14.96%
GM growth 3Y45.22%
GM growth 5Y5.42%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MPC is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.32 indicates that MPC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.32, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.64% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 5.30, which is a neutral value as it means it would take MPC, 5.30 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 5.30, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.22% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.27. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.27, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 76.70% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.3 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.32 |
ROIC/WACC1.35
WACC7.89%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.23. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of MPC (1.23) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.76 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.76, MPC is doing worse than 66.99% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.23 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -52.10%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.78% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has decreased by -6.39% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing by 11.63% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-52.1%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.78%
EPS Q2Q%-77.03%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.39%
Revenue growth 3Y29.59%
Revenue growth 5Y11.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.93%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -17.35% on average per year.
MPC is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -4.45% yearly.
EPS Next Y-60.44%
EPS Next 2Y-36.99%
EPS Next 3Y-17.83%
EPS Next 5Y-17.35%
Revenue Next Year-6.34%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.17%
Revenue Next 5Y-4.45%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 12.02 indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of MPC is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.29, MPC is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.15, MPC is valued correctly.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 24.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.15 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than 61.16% of the companies in the same industry.
72.33% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MPC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 9.1 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.24 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
MPC's earnings are expected to decrease with -17.83% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
EPS Next 2Y-36.99%
EPS Next 3Y-17.83%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.40%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.39, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.28, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 13.40%, which is quite nice.
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.4%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
25.95% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.95%
EPS Next 2Y-36.99%
EPS Next 3Y-17.83%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP
NYSE:MPC (1/21/2025, 8:15:11 PM)
After market: 151 +0.18 (+0.12%)150.82
-1.88 (-1.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners76.35%
Inst Owner Change-0.4%
Ins Owners0.2%
Ins Owner Change0.22%
Market Cap48.47B
Analysts73.91
Price Target174.06 (15.41%)
Short Float %2.47%
Short Ratio2.98
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.4% |
Yearly Dividend3.07
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.4%
DP25.95%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)60.12%
Min EPS beat(2)32.15%
Max EPS beat(2)88.08%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)51.23%
Min EPS beat(4)5.62%
Max EPS beat(4)88.08%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)30.63%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)37.51%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)39.35%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)7.46%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)8.26%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.27%
Min Revenue beat(4)2.72%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.26%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)4.59%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)10.95%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)14.55%
PT rev (1m)-0.31%
PT rev (3m)-4.6%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-66.35%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-22.62%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.74%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.86%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.15 | ||
| P/S | 0.34 | ||
| P/FCF | 9.1 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.39 | ||
| P/B | 2.56 | ||
| P/tB | 4.53 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.24 |
EPS(TTM)12.55
EY8.32%
EPS(NY)9.34
Fwd EY6.19%
FCF(TTM)16.57
FCFY10.99%
OCF(TTM)23.59
OCFY15.64%
SpS447
BVpS58.91
TBVpS33.26
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.66% | ||
| ROE | 23.88% | ||
| ROCE | 13.51% | ||
| ROIC | 10.67% | ||
| ROICexc | 11.7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.82% | ||
| OM | 5.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.15% | ||
| GM | 10.72% | ||
| FCFM | 3.71% |
ROA(3y)12.93%
ROA(5y)5.98%
ROE(3y)43.04%
ROE(5y)18.54%
ROIC(3y)15.09%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)18.02%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)21.07%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)19.11%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y30.1%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y33.77%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y11.98%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y14.96%
GM growth 3Y45.22%
GM growth 5Y5.42%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.8
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.3 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.13 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 67.54% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.57% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.58 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 67.2% | ||
| Profit Quality | 117.81% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.23 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.32 |
F-Score5
WACC7.89%
ROIC/WACC1.35
Cap/Depr(3y)58.65%
Cap/Depr(5y)81.25%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.54%
Profit Quality(3y)84.08%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-52.1%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.78%
EPS Q2Q%-77.03%
EPS Next Y-60.44%
EPS Next 2Y-36.99%
EPS Next 3Y-17.83%
EPS Next 5Y-17.35%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.39%
Revenue growth 3Y29.59%
Revenue growth 5Y11.63%
Sales Q2Q%-14.93%
Revenue Next Year-6.34%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.21%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.17%
Revenue Next 5Y-4.45%
EBIT growth 1Y-52.57%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y25%
EBIT Next Year-24.11%
EBIT Next 3Y-5.87%
EBIT Next 5Y-7.38%
FCF growth 1Y-60.48%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y36.5%
OCF growth 1Y-51.57%
OCF growth 3Y80.04%
OCF growth 5Y18.05%