MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
195.02 USD
-4.59 (-2.3%)
Taking everything into account, MPC scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. MPC was compared to 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. MPC has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 3.53%, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.86% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC has a Return On Equity of 17.56%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 80.95% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 9.41%, MPC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 17.20%. This is below the industry average of 21.67%.
The 3 year average ROIC (17.20%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(9.41%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
MPC's Profit Margin of 2.13% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 60.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC has a Operating Margin of 4.97%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 65.24% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 10.43%, MPC is doing worse than 70.48% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is creating value.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, MPC has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.18. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.18, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.76% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 7.23, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 7.23 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MPC has a Debt to FCF ratio of 7.23. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of MPC (1.64) is worse than 76.19% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.18 |
ROIC/WACC1.16
WACC8.12%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.19 indicates that MPC should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
MPC has a Current ratio of 1.19. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 52.38% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Quick Ratio of 1.19. This is a bad value and indicates that MPC is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MPC's Quick ratio of 0.73 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MPC is outperformed by 63.81% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -40.24% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
Looking at the last year, MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.85% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.70% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
MPC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 16.41% yearly.
MPC is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -2.18% yearly.
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
MPC is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 26.00.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as MPC.
MPC is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.46, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.67 indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 35.39, MPC is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.67 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
66.67% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MPC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.87 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.19 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates MPC does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.35% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)6.68
PEG (5Y)1.84
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.06%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.90, MPC has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MPC grows each year by 9.91%, which is quite nice.
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
39.32% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MPC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
NYSE:MPC (11/19/2025, 2:58:15 PM)
195.02
-4.59 (-2.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.57%
Inst Owner Change-4.7%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.87%
Market Cap59.29B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts74.17
Price Target201.62 (3.38%)
Short Float %2.49%
Short Ratio3.94
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)3.8%
PT rev (3m)6.3%
EPS NQ rev (1m)21.39%
EPS NQ rev (3m)61.24%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.03%
EPS NY rev (3m)16.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.49%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.35%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.67 | ||
| P/S | 0.44 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.87 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.02 | ||
| P/B | 3.62 | ||
| P/tB | 7.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.19 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY3.85%
EPS(NY)13.3
Fwd EY6.82%
FCF(TTM)14.06
FCFY7.21%
OCF(TTM)24.31
OCFY12.47%
SpS444.88
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)6.68
PEG (5Y)1.84
Graham Number95.4
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.18 |
F-Score4
WACC8.12%
ROIC/WACC1.16
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year78.23%
EBIT Next 3Y26.76%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
What is the valuation status for MPC stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 3.89% in the next year.
Is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 39.32%.