MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
187.11 USD
-4.19 (-2.19%)
187.11 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, MPC scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. MPC was compared to 209 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has an average financial health and profitability rating. MPC has a expensive valuation and it also scores bad on growth. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
In the past year MPC had a positive cash flow from operations.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of MPC (3.53%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
MPC has a Return On Equity of 17.56%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 84.21% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of MPC (9.41%) is better than 80.86% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MPC is below the industry average of 20.87%.
The 3 year average ROIC (17.20%) for MPC is well above the current ROIC(9.41%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 2.13%, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 40.67% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
The Operating Margin of MPC (4.97%) is worse than 65.55% of its industry peers.
MPC's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 10.43%, MPC is doing worse than 71.77% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
MPC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
MPC has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.15. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 3.15, MPC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 7.23, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 7.23 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 7.23, MPC is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.89% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64 is on the high side and indicates that MPC has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.64, MPC is not doing good in the industry: 77.03% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.15 |
ROIC/WACC1.18
WACC8%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of MPC (1.19) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.73, MPC is doing worse than 64.59% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for MPC have decreased strongly by -40.24% in the last year.
MPC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 14.10% yearly.
MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -5.85%.
MPC shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.70% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 20.37% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, MPC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y11.43%
EPS Next 2Y27.75%
EPS Next 3Y14.06%
EPS Next 5Y20.37%
Revenue Next Year-3.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.36%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.12%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 24.95, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of MPC.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 60.77% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.76. MPC is around the same levels.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.28, MPC is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 62.20% of the companies are valued more expensively.
MPC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.96.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.28 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MPC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.99% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.87 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.06% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)2.18
PEG (5Y)1.77
EPS Next 2Y27.75%
EPS Next 3Y14.06%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.10%, MPC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 5.71.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.31, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 39.32% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y27.75%
EPS Next 3Y14.06%
187.11
-4.19 (-2.19%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners75.47%
Inst Owner Change-4.66%
Ins Owners0.15%
Ins Owner Change-0.21%
Market Cap56.25B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts73.33
Price Target204.39 (9.24%)
Short Float %2.41%
Short Ratio3.92
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)1.38%
PT rev (3m)8.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)22.71%
EPS NQ rev (3m)98.86%
EPS NY rev (1m)7.26%
EPS NY rev (3m)19.33%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.7%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.62%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.88%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.5%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24.95 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.28 | ||
| P/S | 0.42 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.15 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.61 | ||
| P/B | 3.43 | ||
| P/tB | 6.9 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.87 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY4.01%
EPS(NY)15.24
Fwd EY8.15%
FCF(TTM)14.22
FCFY7.6%
OCF(TTM)24.59
OCFY13.14%
SpS449.94
BVpS54.54
TBVpS27.12
PEG (NY)2.18
PEG (5Y)1.77
Graham Number95.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.15 |
F-Score4
WACC8%
ROIC/WACC1.18
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y11.43%
EPS Next 2Y27.75%
EPS Next 3Y14.06%
EPS Next 5Y20.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-3.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.36%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.12%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year90.2%
EBIT Next 3Y26.3%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
What is the valuation status for MPC stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 11.43% in the next year.
Is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 39.32%.