MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:MPC - US56585A1025 - Common Stock
187.87 USD
-7.65 (-3.91%)
187.95 USD
+0.08 (+0.04%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to MPC. MPC was compared to 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. MPC has an average financial health and profitability rating. MPC is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing. MPC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MPC was profitable.
MPC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
MPC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years MPC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
MPC has a Return On Assets of 3.53%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MPC outperforms 52.86% of its industry peers.
MPC has a Return On Equity of 17.56%. This is amongst the best in the industry. MPC outperforms 80.95% of its industry peers.
MPC's Return On Invested Capital of 9.41% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MPC outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MPC is below the industry average of 21.66%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (9.41%) for MPC is well below the 3 year average (17.20%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MPC had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 2.13%, MPC is doing worse than 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
MPC has a Operating Margin of 4.97%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 65.24% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of MPC has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 10.43%, MPC is doing worse than 70.48% of the companies in the same industry.
MPC's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% |
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MPC is creating value.
MPC has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for MPC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, MPC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
MPC has an Altman-Z score of 3.17. This indicates that MPC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of MPC (3.17) is better than 84.76% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MPC is 7.23, which is on the high side as it means it would take MPC, 7.23 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MPC has a Debt to FCF ratio (7.23) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
MPC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
MPC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.64. This is in the lower half of the industry: MPC underperforms 76.19% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.17 |
ROIC/WACC1.16
WACC8.12%
2.3 Liquidity
MPC has a Current Ratio of 1.19. This is a normal value and indicates that MPC is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MPC has a Current ratio (1.19) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that MPC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of MPC (0.73) is worse than 63.33% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MPC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.24%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 14.10% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, MPC shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.85% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.70% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 16.41% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -2.18% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 25.05 indicates a quite expensive valuation of MPC.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
MPC's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 25.07.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 14.13, which indicates a correct valuation of MPC.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as MPC.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MPC to the average of the S&P500 Index (34.08), we can say MPC is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.13 |
4.2 Price Multiples
MPC's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
66.67% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MPC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.36 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates MPC does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
MPC's earnings are expected to grow with 14.35% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)6.44
PEG (5Y)1.78
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MPC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.06%.
MPC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 5.90.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, MPC has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MPC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 9.91%!
MPC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
MPC has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
5.3 Sustainability
MPC pays out 39.32% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
MPC's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP39.32%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
187.87
-7.65 (-3.91%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners77.57%
Inst Owner Change-4.7%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.87%
Market Cap57.12B
Revenue(TTM)135.25B
Net Income(TTM)2.88B
Analysts74.17
Price Target201.62 (7.32%)
Short Float %2.49%
Short Ratio3.94
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
Yearly Dividend3.37
Dividend Growth(5Y)9.91%
DP39.32%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years13
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.92%
Min EPS beat(2)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(2)19.16%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)1108.78%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.31%
Max EPS beat(4)4366.18%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)580%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)390.01%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)305.33%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)9.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)9.04%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.27%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)7.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)6.49%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.27%
Revenue beat(8)8
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.56%
Revenue beat(12)11
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.67%
Revenue beat(16)15
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.18%
PT rev (1m)3.8%
PT rev (3m)6.3%
EPS NQ rev (1m)21.39%
EPS NQ rev (3m)61.24%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.03%
EPS NY rev (3m)16.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.49%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.35%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.05 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.13 | ||
| P/S | 0.42 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.36 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.73 | ||
| P/B | 3.48 | ||
| P/tB | 7.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.06 |
EPS(TTM)7.5
EY3.99%
EPS(NY)13.3
Fwd EY7.08%
FCF(TTM)14.06
FCFY7.49%
OCF(TTM)24.31
OCFY12.94%
SpS444.88
BVpS53.93
TBVpS26.81
PEG (NY)6.44
PEG (5Y)1.78
Graham Number95.4
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.53% | ||
| ROE | 17.56% | ||
| ROCE | 11.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.41% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.94% | ||
| OM | 4.97% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.13% | ||
| GM | 10.43% | ||
| FCFM | 3.16% |
ROA(3y)10.58%
ROA(5y)6.32%
ROE(3y)37.13%
ROE(5y)20.85%
ROIC(3y)17.2%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)23.54%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)20.86%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y11.76%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.27%
ROICexc growth 5Y12.97%
OM growth 3Y10.38%
OM growth 5Y0%
PM growth 3Y-32.72%
PM growth 5Y0.75%
GM growth 3Y3.77%
GM growth 5Y-1.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover1.66
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.23 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.69 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.3% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 74.12% | ||
| Profit Quality | 148.52% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.19 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.17 |
F-Score4
WACC8.12%
ROIC/WACC1.16
Cap/Depr(3y)69.44%
Cap/Depr(5y)66.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.47%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.93%
Profit Quality(3y)133.55%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.24%
EPS 3Y55.17%
EPS 5Y14.1%
EPS Q2Q%60.96%
EPS Next Y3.89%
EPS Next 2Y19.31%
EPS Next 3Y14.35%
EPS Next 5Y16.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.85%
Revenue growth 3Y5.1%
Revenue growth 5Y4.7%
Sales Q2Q%1.35%
Revenue Next Year-6.42%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.94%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.38%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.35%
EBIT growth 3Y16.01%
EBIT growth 5Y4.69%
EBIT Next Year78.23%
EBIT Next 3Y26.76%
EBIT Next 5Y14.23%
FCF growth 1Y-72.04%
FCF growth 3Y28.41%
FCF growth 5Y8.56%
OCF growth 1Y-57.46%
OCF growth 3Y25.73%
OCF growth 5Y-1.7%
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP / MPC FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MPC.
What is the valuation status for MPC stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of MPC stock?
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What is the earnings growth outlook for MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is expected to grow by 3.89% in the next year.
Is the dividend of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP (MPC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 39.32%.