Model N Inc (MODN) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA • New York Stock Exchange • NYSE:MODN • US6075251024

30 USD
+0.03 (+0.1%)
At close: Jun 26, 2024
30.002 USD
+0 (+0.01%)
After Hours: 6/26/2024, 8:04:00 PM
Fundamental Rating

4

Taking everything into account, MODN scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. MODN was compared to 278 industry peers in the Software industry. While MODN seems to be doing ok healthwise, there are quite some concerns on its profitability. MODN is growing strongly while it is still valued neutral. This is a good combination!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

3

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • MODN had positive earnings in the past year.
  • MODN had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • MODN had negative earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years MODN always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
MODN Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMODN Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20M -20M

1.2 Ratios

  • MODN has a Return On Assets of 0.05%. This is in the better half of the industry: MODN outperforms 64.86% of its industry peers.
  • MODN has a better Return On Equity (0.19%) than 67.03% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.05%
ROE 0.19%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)-7.41%
ROA(5y)-7.58%
ROE(3y)-24.88%
ROE(5y)-24.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
MODN Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMODN Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 -20 -40 -60 -80

1.3 Margins

  • MODN's Profit Margin of 0.10% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MODN outperforms 65.58% of its industry peers.
  • With a Gross Margin value of 57.06%, MODN is not doing good in the industry: 64.13% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • MODN's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) 0.1%
GM 57.06%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.57%
GM growth 5Y-0.41%
MODN Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMODN Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40

More info and screens

5

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • MODN does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, MODN has more shares outstanding
  • The debt/assets ratio for MODN is higher compared to a year ago.
MODN Yearly Shares OutstandingMODN Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10M 20M 30M
MODN Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMODN Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.15 indicates that MODN is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With a Altman-Z score value of 2.15, MODN perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.91% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of MODN is 4.68, which is a neutral value as it means it would take MODN, 4.68 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • MODN's Debt to FCF ratio of 4.68 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MODN outperforms 59.42% of its industry peers.
  • MODN has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.05. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • MODN has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (2.05) than 83.33% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.05
Debt/FCF 4.68
Altman-Z 2.15
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC9.78%
MODN Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMODN Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M

2.3 Liquidity

  • MODN has a Current Ratio of 3.86. This indicates that MODN is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of MODN (3.86) is better than 81.16% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 3.86 indicates that MODN has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 3.86, MODN belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.16% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.86
Quick Ratio 3.86
MODN Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMODN Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M

More info and screens

7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • MODN shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 34.09%, which is quite impressive.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 94.38% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
  • MODN shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 8.57%.
  • Measured over the past years, MODN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.05% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)34.09%
EPS 3Y32.24%
EPS 5Y94.38%
EPS Q2Q%9.09%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.57%
Revenue growth 3Y15.7%
Revenue growth 5Y10.05%
Sales Q2Q%4%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.28% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 8.98% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y17.87%
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.15%
Revenue Next 2Y7.69%
Revenue Next 3Y8.98%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
MODN Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMODN Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100M 200M 300M
MODN Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMODN Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0.5 -0.5 1 1.5

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 25.42, which means the current valuation is very expensive for MODN.
  • MODN's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. MODN is cheaper than 77.54% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 28.41. MODN is around the same levels.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.66 indicates a rather expensive valuation of MODN.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MODN indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: MODN is cheaper than 79.35% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MODN to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.64), we can say MODN is valued slightly cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.42
Fwd PE 19.66
MODN Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMODN Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40 50

4.2 Price Multiples

  • MODN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MODN is valued cheaper than 85.14% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 19.69
EV/EBITDA 223.88
MODN Per share dataMODN EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • MODN's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • MODN's earnings are expected to grow with 19.28% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.42
PEG (5Y)0.27
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%

More info and screens

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • MODN does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

More info and screens

Model N Inc

NYSE:MODN (6/26/2024, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 30.002 +0 (+0.01%)

30

+0.03 (+0.1%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustrySoftware
Earnings (Last)05-06
Earnings (Next)08-06
Inst Owners10.07%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners11.38%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.18B
Revenue(TTM)256.31M
Net Income(TTM)265.00K
Analysts50
Price Target30.6 (2%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-11.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-15.94%
Max EPS beat(2)-6.22%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)5.42%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.94%
Max EPS beat(4)40.97%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.91%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)91.22%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)99.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.41%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.12%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.06%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.64%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.65%
Revenue beat(12)10
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.8%
Revenue beat(16)14
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.12%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-4.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.33%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.42
Fwd PE 19.66
P/S 4.61
P/FCF 19.69
P/OCF 19.47
P/B 8.63
P/tB 26.54
EV/EBITDA 223.88
EPS(TTM)1.18
EY3.93%
EPS(NY)1.53
Fwd EY5.09%
FCF(TTM)1.52
FCFY5.08%
OCF(TTM)1.54
OCFY5.14%
SpS6.5
BVpS3.48
TBVpS1.13
PEG (NY)1.42
PEG (5Y)0.27
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.05%
ROE 0.19%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) 0.1%
GM 57.06%
FCFM 23.43%
ROA(3y)-7.41%
ROA(5y)-7.58%
ROE(3y)-24.88%
ROE(5y)-24.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.57%
GM growth 5Y-0.41%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.48
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.05
Debt/FCF 4.68
Debt/EBITDA 55.75
Cap/Depr 8.72%
Cap/Sales 0.26%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion 1204.2%
Profit Quality 22664.5%
Current Ratio 3.86
Quick Ratio 3.86
Altman-Z 2.15
F-Score7
WACC9.78%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)9.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)8.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.39%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.35%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)34.09%
EPS 3Y32.24%
EPS 5Y94.38%
EPS Q2Q%9.09%
EPS Next Y17.87%
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.57%
Revenue growth 3Y15.7%
Revenue growth 5Y10.05%
Sales Q2Q%4%
Revenue Next Year6.15%
Revenue Next 2Y7.69%
Revenue Next 3Y8.98%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y79.94%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year33.6%
EBIT Next 3Y26.48%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y220.67%
FCF growth 3Y18.73%
FCF growth 5Y59.11%
OCF growth 1Y213.25%
OCF growth 3Y17.87%
OCF growth 5Y56.42%

Model N Inc / MODN FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for Model N Inc?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MODN.


Can you provide the valuation status for Model N Inc?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to Model N Inc (MODN). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is Model N Inc (MODN) stock?

Model N Inc (MODN) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MODN stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of Model N Inc (MODN) is expected to grow by 17.87% in the next year.