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Model N Inc (MODN) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:MODN - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6075251024 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

30  +0.03 (+0.1%)

After market: 30.002 +0 (+0.01%)

Fundamental Rating

4

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to MODN. MODN was compared to 282 industry peers in the Software industry. The financial health of MODN is average, but there are quite some concerns on its profitability. MODN is not priced too expensively while it is growing strongly. Keep and eye on this one!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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3

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year MODN was profitable.
In the past year MODN had a positive cash flow from operations.
MODN had negative earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years MODN always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
MODN Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMODN Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20M -20M

1.2 Ratios

MODN has a better Return On Assets (0.05%) than 64.86% of its industry peers.
MODN's Return On Equity of 0.19% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MODN outperforms 67.03% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.05%
ROE 0.19%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)-7.41%
ROA(5y)-7.58%
ROE(3y)-24.88%
ROE(5y)-24.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
MODN Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMODN Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 -20 -40 -60 -80

1.3 Margins

With a decent Profit Margin value of 0.10%, MODN is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.58% of the companies in the same industry.
The Gross Margin of MODN (57.06%) is worse than 64.13% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MODN has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) 0.1%
GM 57.06%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.57%
GM growth 5Y-0.41%
MODN Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMODN Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40

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5

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

MODN does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, MODN has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, MODN has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, MODN has a worse debt to assets ratio.
MODN Yearly Shares OutstandingMODN Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10M 20M 30M
MODN Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMODN Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.15 indicates that MODN is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
MODN has a Altman-Z score (2.15) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MODN is 4.68, which is a neutral value as it means it would take MODN, 4.68 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MODN (4.68) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.05 is on the high side and indicates that MODN has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 2.05, MODN is doing worse than 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.05
Debt/FCF 4.68
Altman-Z 2.15
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC9.78%
MODN Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMODN Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M

2.3 Liquidity

MODN has a Current Ratio of 3.86. This indicates that MODN is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
MODN's Current ratio of 3.86 is amongst the best of the industry. MODN outperforms 81.16% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 3.86 indicates that MODN has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
MODN has a Quick ratio of 3.86. This is amongst the best in the industry. MODN outperforms 81.16% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.86
Quick Ratio 3.86
MODN Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMODN Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M

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7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

MODN shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 34.09%, which is quite impressive.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 94.38% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, MODN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 8.57% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 10.05% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)34.09%
EPS 3Y32.24%
EPS 5Y94.38%
EPS Q2Q%9.09%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.57%
Revenue growth 3Y15.7%
Revenue growth 5Y10.05%
Sales Q2Q%4%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, MODN will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 19.28% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, MODN will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.98% on average per year.
EPS Next Y17.87%
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.15%
Revenue Next 2Y7.69%
Revenue Next 3Y8.98%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
MODN Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMODN Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100M 200M 300M
MODN Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMODN Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0.5 -0.5 1 1.5

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings ratio is 25.42, which means the current valuation is very expensive for MODN.
77.54% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MODN, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of MODN to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.52), we can say MODN is valued inline with the index average.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.66, the valuation of MODN can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MODN is valued a bit cheaper than 79.35% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 35.58, MODN is valued a bit cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.42
Fwd PE 19.66
MODN Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMODN Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

MODN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
85.14% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MODN, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 19.69
EV/EBITDA 223.88
MODN Per share dataMODN EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
MODN's earnings are expected to grow with 19.28% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.42
PEG (5Y)0.27
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

MODN does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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Model N Inc

NYSE:MODN (6/26/2024, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 30.002 +0 (+0.01%)

30

+0.03 (+0.1%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorInformation Technology
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustrySoftware
Earnings (Last)05-06 2024-05-06/bmo
Earnings (Next)08-06 2024-08-06/amc
Inst Owners10.07%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners11.38%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.18B
Analysts50
Price Target30.6 (2%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-11.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-15.94%
Max EPS beat(2)-6.22%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)5.42%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.94%
Max EPS beat(4)40.97%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.91%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)91.22%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)99.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.41%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.12%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.06%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.64%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.65%
Revenue beat(12)10
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.8%
Revenue beat(16)14
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.12%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-4.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.33%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.42
Fwd PE 19.66
P/S 4.61
P/FCF 19.69
P/OCF 19.47
P/B 8.63
P/tB 26.54
EV/EBITDA 223.88
EPS(TTM)1.18
EY3.93%
EPS(NY)1.53
Fwd EY5.09%
FCF(TTM)1.52
FCFY5.08%
OCF(TTM)1.54
OCFY5.14%
SpS6.5
BVpS3.48
TBVpS1.13
PEG (NY)1.42
PEG (5Y)0.27
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.05%
ROE 0.19%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) 0.1%
GM 57.06%
FCFM 23.43%
ROA(3y)-7.41%
ROA(5y)-7.58%
ROE(3y)-24.88%
ROE(5y)-24.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.57%
GM growth 5Y-0.41%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.48
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.05
Debt/FCF 4.68
Debt/EBITDA 55.75
Cap/Depr 8.72%
Cap/Sales 0.26%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion 1204.2%
Profit Quality 22664.5%
Current Ratio 3.86
Quick Ratio 3.86
Altman-Z 2.15
F-Score7
WACC9.78%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)9.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)8.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.39%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.35%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)34.09%
EPS 3Y32.24%
EPS 5Y94.38%
EPS Q2Q%9.09%
EPS Next Y17.87%
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.57%
Revenue growth 3Y15.7%
Revenue growth 5Y10.05%
Sales Q2Q%4%
Revenue Next Year6.15%
Revenue Next 2Y7.69%
Revenue Next 3Y8.98%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y79.94%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year33.6%
EBIT Next 3Y26.48%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y220.67%
FCF growth 3Y18.73%
FCF growth 5Y59.11%
OCF growth 1Y213.25%
OCF growth 3Y17.87%
OCF growth 5Y56.42%