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Model N Inc (MODN) Stock Fundamental Analysis

USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:MODN - US6075251024 - Common Stock

30 USD
+0.03 (+0.1%)
Last: 6/26/2024, 8:04:00 PM
30.002 USD
+0 (+0.01%)
After Hours: 6/26/2024, 8:04:00 PM
Fundamental Rating

4

Taking everything into account, MODN scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. MODN was compared to 277 industry peers in the Software industry. The financial health of MODN is average, but there are quite some concerns on its profitability. MODN is not overvalued while it is showing excellent growth. This is an interesting combination.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

3

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year MODN was profitable.
  • In the past year MODN had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • MODN had negative earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • MODN had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
MODN Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMODN Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20M -20M

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.05%, MODN is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.86% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MODN has a better Return On Equity (0.19%) than 67.03% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.05%
ROE 0.19%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)-7.41%
ROA(5y)-7.58%
ROE(3y)-24.88%
ROE(5y)-24.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
MODN Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMODN Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 -20 -40 -60 -80

1.3 Margins

  • MODN has a Profit Margin of 0.10%. This is in the better half of the industry: MODN outperforms 65.58% of its industry peers.
  • MODN's Gross Margin of 57.06% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MODN is outperformed by 64.13% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MODN has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) 0.1%
GM 57.06%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.57%
GM growth 5Y-0.41%
MODN Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMODN Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 40

5

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • MODN does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, MODN has more shares outstanding
  • MODN has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
MODN Yearly Shares OutstandingMODN Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10M 20M 30M
MODN Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMODN Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

2.2 Solvency

  • MODN has an Altman-Z score of 2.15. This is not the best score and indicates that MODN is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • The Altman-Z score of MODN (2.15) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • MODN has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.68. This is a neutral value as MODN would need 4.68 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • MODN has a Debt to FCF ratio (4.68) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.05 is on the high side and indicates that MODN has dependencies on debt financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of MODN (2.05) is worse than 83.33% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.05
Debt/FCF 4.68
Altman-Z 2.15
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC9.78%
MODN Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMODN Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 50M 100M 150M 200M 250M

2.3 Liquidity

  • MODN has a Current Ratio of 3.86. This indicates that MODN is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • MODN has a Current ratio of 3.86. This is amongst the best in the industry. MODN outperforms 81.16% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 3.86 indicates that MODN has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • MODN's Quick ratio of 3.86 is amongst the best of the industry. MODN outperforms 81.16% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.86
Quick Ratio 3.86
MODN Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMODN Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M

7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 34.09% over the past year.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 94.38% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
  • MODN shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 8.57%.
  • Measured over the past years, MODN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.05% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)34.09%
EPS 3Y32.24%
EPS 5Y94.38%
EPS Q2Q%9.09%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.57%
Revenue growth 3Y15.7%
Revenue growth 5Y10.05%
Sales Q2Q%4%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 19.28% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, MODN will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.98% on average per year.
EPS Next Y17.87%
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.15%
Revenue Next 2Y7.69%
Revenue Next 3Y8.98%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
MODN Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMODN Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100M 200M 300M
MODN Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMODN Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0.5 -0.5 1 1.5

4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • MODN is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 25.42.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, MODN is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 77.54% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of MODN to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.21), we can say MODN is valued inline with the index average.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.66, the valuation of MODN can be described as rather expensive.
  • MODN's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. MODN is cheaper than 79.35% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MODN's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 24.26.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.42
Fwd PE 19.66
MODN Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMODN Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40 50

4.2 Price Multiples

  • MODN's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of MODN indicates a rather cheap valuation: MODN is cheaper than 85.14% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 19.69
EV/EBITDA 223.88
MODN Per share dataMODN EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
  • MODN's earnings are expected to grow with 19.28% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.42
PEG (5Y)0.27
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • MODN does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

Model N Inc / MODN FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for Model N Inc?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to MODN.


Can you provide the valuation status for Model N Inc?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to Model N Inc (MODN). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is Model N Inc (MODN) stock?

Model N Inc (MODN) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MODN stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of Model N Inc (MODN) is expected to grow by 17.87% in the next year.