Model N Inc (MODN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MODN - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6075251024 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall MODN gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated MODN against 284 industry peers in the Software industry. While MODN seems to be doing ok healthwise, there are quite some concerns on its profitability. MODN is showing excellent growth while it is valued at reasonable prices. Keep and eye on this one!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MODN was profitable.
In the past year MODN had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years MODN always reported negative net income.
Each year in the past 5 years MODN had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of MODN (0.05%) is better than 64.86% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 0.19%, MODN is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.03% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.05% | ||
| ROE | 0.19% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)-7.41%
ROA(5y)-7.58%
ROE(3y)-24.88%
ROE(5y)-24.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of MODN (0.10%) is better than 65.58% of its industry peers.
With a Gross Margin value of 57.06%, MODN is not doing good in the industry: 64.13% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
MODN's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.1% | ||
| GM | 57.06% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.57%
GM growth 5Y-0.41%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
MODN does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for MODN has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
MODN has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, MODN has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
MODN has an Altman-Z score of 2.15. This is not the best score and indicates that MODN is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
MODN has a Altman-Z score (2.15) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MODN is 4.68, which is a neutral value as it means it would take MODN, 4.68 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MODN's Debt to FCF ratio of 4.68 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MODN outperforms 59.42% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.05 is on the high side and indicates that MODN has dependencies on debt financing.
MODN's Debt to Equity ratio of 2.05 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MODN is outperformed by 83.33% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.05 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.68 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.15 |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC9.78%
2.3 Liquidity
MODN has a Current Ratio of 3.86. This indicates that MODN is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of MODN (3.86) is better than 81.16% of its industry peers.
MODN has a Quick Ratio of 3.86. This indicates that MODN is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
MODN has a better Quick ratio (3.86) than 81.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.86 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 3.86 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 34.09% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, MODN shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 94.38% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 8.57% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, MODN shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.05% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)34.09%
EPS 3Y32.24%
EPS 5Y94.38%
EPS Q2Q%9.09%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.57%
Revenue growth 3Y15.7%
Revenue growth 5Y10.05%
Sales Q2Q%4%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, MODN will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 19.28% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 8.98% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y17.87%
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.15%
Revenue Next 2Y7.69%
Revenue Next 3Y8.98%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 25.42, which means the current valuation is very expensive for MODN.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, MODN is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 77.54% of the companies are valued more expensively.
MODN's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 29.63.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.66, the valuation of MODN can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MODN is valued a bit cheaper than 79.35% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of MODN to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.68), we can say MODN is valued inline with the index average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.42 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.66 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MODN is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MODN is valued cheaply inside the industry as 85.14% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 223.88 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
MODN's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
MODN's earnings are expected to grow with 19.28% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)1.42
PEG (5Y)0.27
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for MODN!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
30
+0.03 (+0.1%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorInformation Technology
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustrySoftware
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners10.07%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners11.38%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap1.18B
Analysts50
Price Target30.6 (2%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-11.08%
Min EPS beat(2)-15.94%
Max EPS beat(2)-6.22%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)5.42%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.94%
Max EPS beat(4)40.97%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.91%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)91.22%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)99.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.41%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.12%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.06%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.94%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.64%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.65%
Revenue beat(12)10
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.8%
Revenue beat(16)14
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.12%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-4.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.33%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25.42 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.66 | ||
| P/S | 4.61 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.69 | ||
| P/OCF | 19.47 | ||
| P/B | 8.63 | ||
| P/tB | 26.54 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 223.88 |
EPS(TTM)1.18
EY3.93%
EPS(NY)1.53
Fwd EY5.09%
FCF(TTM)1.52
FCFY5.08%
OCF(TTM)1.54
OCFY5.14%
SpS6.5
BVpS3.48
TBVpS1.13
PEG (NY)1.42
PEG (5Y)0.27
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.05% | ||
| ROE | 0.19% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | N/A | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.1% | ||
| GM | 57.06% | ||
| FCFM | 23.43% |
ROA(3y)-7.41%
ROA(5y)-7.58%
ROE(3y)-24.88%
ROE(5y)-24.45%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-1.57%
GM growth 5Y-0.41%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.48
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.05 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.68 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 55.75 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 8.72% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.26% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | 1204.2% | ||
| Profit Quality | 22664.5% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.86 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 3.86 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.15 |
F-Score7
WACC9.78%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)9.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)8.89%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.39%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.35%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)34.09%
EPS 3Y32.24%
EPS 5Y94.38%
EPS Q2Q%9.09%
EPS Next Y17.87%
EPS Next 2Y17.26%
EPS Next 3Y19.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)8.57%
Revenue growth 3Y15.7%
Revenue growth 5Y10.05%
Sales Q2Q%4%
Revenue Next Year6.15%
Revenue Next 2Y7.69%
Revenue Next 3Y8.98%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y79.94%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year33.6%
EBIT Next 3Y26.48%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y220.67%
FCF growth 3Y18.73%
FCF growth 5Y59.11%
OCF growth 1Y213.25%
OCF growth 3Y17.87%
OCF growth 5Y56.42%