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MESA AIR GROUP INC (MESA) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:MESA - Nasdaq - US5904791358 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

1.15  -0.08 (-6.5%)

Fundamental Rating

2

We assign a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10 to MESA. MESA was compared to 23 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. MESA may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. MESA has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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1

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year MESA has reported negative net income.
MESA had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years MESA reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
MESA had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
MESA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMESA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 100M -100M -200M -300M

1.2 Ratios

Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -14.22%, MESA is doing worse than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -70.02%, MESA is doing worse than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -14.22%
ROE -70.02%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)-9.54%
ROA(5y)-4.7%
ROE(3y)-38.64%
ROE(5y)-19.75%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
MESA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMESA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 -20 -40 -60

1.3 Margins

MESA has a Gross Margin of 16.97%. This is in the lower half of the industry: MESA underperforms 73.91% of its industry peers.
MESA's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
MESA does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 16.97%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.23%
GM growth 5Y-12.93%
MESA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMESA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20

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0

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

MESA does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
MESA has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
MESA has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for MESA is higher compared to a year ago.
MESA Yearly Shares OutstandingMESA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10M 20M 30M 40M
MESA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMESA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B 1.5B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.22, we must say that MESA is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
MESA has a Altman-Z score of 0.22. This is in the lower half of the industry: MESA underperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
MESA has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.13. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
MESA has a Debt to Equity ratio (2.13) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.13
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 0.22
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC6.21%
MESA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMESA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M 400M 600M 800M

2.3 Liquidity

MESA has a Current Ratio of 0.45. This is a bad value and indicates that MESA is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of MESA (0.45) is worse than 73.91% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.29 indicates that MESA may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of MESA (0.29) is worse than 82.61% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.45
Quick Ratio 0.29
MESA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMESA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 57.94% over the past year.
Looking at the last year, MESA shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -6.63% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, MESA shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -6.08% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)57.94%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%58.72%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.63%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.96%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.08%
Sales Q2Q%-3.4%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 55.47% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue is expected to grow by 14.62% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y91.1%
EPS Next 2Y55.47%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year13.08%
Revenue Next 2Y14.62%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
MESA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMESA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M
MESA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMESA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1 -1

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5

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for MESA. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 1.66, the valuation of MESA can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MESA is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
MESA is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.68, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 1.66
MESA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMESA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 10 20

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, MESA is valued a bit cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 11.94
MESA Per share dataMESA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 -2 4 6 8 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
MESA's earnings are expected to grow with 55.47% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y55.47%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for MESA!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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MESA AIR GROUP INC

NASDAQ:MESA (2/21/2025, 8:00:01 PM)

1.15

-0.08 (-6.5%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)12-12 2024-12-12/amc
Earnings (Next)05-19 2025-05-19
Inst Owners10.62%
Inst Owner Change-97.38%
Ins Owners11.79%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap47.51M
Analysts43.33
Price TargetN/A
Short Float %0.51%
Short Ratio0.66
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)N/A
Avg EPS beat(2)N/A
Min EPS beat(2)N/A
Max EPS beat(2)N/A
EPS beat(4)N/A
Avg EPS beat(4)N/A
Min EPS beat(4)N/A
Max EPS beat(4)N/A
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.28%
Min Revenue beat(2)-26.11%
Max Revenue beat(2)-4.44%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-9.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-26.11%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.65%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-7.12%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-5.49%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-4.12%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 1.66
P/S 0.1
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 5.11
P/B 0.35
P/tB 0.35
EV/EBITDA 11.94
EPS(TTM)-2.31
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.69
Fwd EY60.31%
FCF(TTM)-0.31
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)0.23
OCFY19.59%
SpS11.51
BVpS3.27
TBVpS3.27
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -14.22%
ROE -70.02%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 16.97%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)-9.54%
ROA(5y)-4.7%
ROE(3y)-38.64%
ROE(5y)-19.75%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-14.23%
GM growth 5Y-12.93%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.13
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 9.02
Cap/Depr 47.61%
Cap/Sales 4.62%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion 29.18%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.45
Quick Ratio 0.29
Altman-Z 0.22
F-Score5
WACC6.21%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)43.81%
Cap/Depr(5y)64.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.15%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.13%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)57.94%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%58.72%
EPS Next Y91.1%
EPS Next 2Y55.47%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.63%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.96%
Revenue growth 5Y-6.08%
Sales Q2Q%-3.4%
Revenue Next Year13.08%
Revenue Next 2Y14.62%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y51.14%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year518.12%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y59.6%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-39.18%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A