M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MDC • US5526761086

Current stock price

62.98 USD
+0.03 (+0.05%)
At close:
62.98 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This MDC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. MDC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year MDC was profitable.
  • MDC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Each year in the past 5 years MDC has been profitable.
  • The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: MDC reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
MDC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMDC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M 400M 600M 800M

1.2 Ratios

  • MDC has a better Return On Assets (7.08%) than 62.69% of its industry peers.
  • With a Return On Equity value of 11.81%, MDC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.72% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MDC has a Return On Invested Capital (6.75%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for MDC is above the industry average of 9.09%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (6.75%) for MDC is well below the 3 year average (11.24%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MDC had better years and this may not be a problem.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.08%
ROE 11.81%
ROIC 6.75%
ROA(3y)9.67%
ROA(5y)9.11%
ROE(3y)17.29%
ROE(5y)16.48%
ROIC(3y)11.24%
ROIC(5y)10.2%
MDC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMDC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5 10 15 20

1.3 Margins

  • MDC's Profit Margin of 8.59% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MDC outperforms 68.66% of its industry peers.
  • MDC's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • The Operating Margin of MDC (10.03%) is better than 61.19% of its industry peers.
  • MDC's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • With a Gross Margin value of 19.29%, MDC is not doing good in the industry: 82.09% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MDC has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 10.03%
PM (TTM) 8.59%
GM 19.29%
OM growth 3Y-5.46%
OM growth 5Y1.73%
PM growth 3Y-2.84%
PM growth 5Y4.67%
GM growth 3Y-4.58%
GM growth 5Y-0.69%
MDC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMDC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5 10 15 20 25

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ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

6

2. MDC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • MDC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, MDC has more shares outstanding
  • MDC has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
MDC Yearly Shares OutstandingMDC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20M 40M 60M
MDC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMDC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 3.68 indicates that MDC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • MDC's Altman-Z score of 3.68 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MDC outperforms 62.69% of its industry peers.
  • MDC has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.28. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as MDC would need 3.28 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 3.28, MDC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.24% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.50 indicates that MDC is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of MDC (0.50) is worse than 61.19% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.5
Debt/FCF 3.28
Altman-Z 3.68
ROIC/WACC0.73
WACC9.28%
MDC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMDC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 7.70 indicates that MDC has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • MDC has a Current ratio of 7.70. This is amongst the best in the industry. MDC outperforms 85.07% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 2.69 indicates that MDC has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of MDC (2.69) is better than 92.54% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 7.7
Quick Ratio 2.69
MDC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMDC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. MDC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for MDC have decreased strongly by -31.16% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, MDC shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 10.85% on average per year.
  • Looking at the last year, MDC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -18.80% in the last year.
  • The Revenue has been growing by 8.66% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-31.16%
EPS 3Y0.91%
EPS 5Y10.85%
EPS Q2Q%44.44%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-18.8%
Revenue growth 3Y5.97%
Revenue growth 5Y8.66%
Sales Q2Q%-11.39%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, MDC will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.76% on average per year.
  • MDC is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.39% yearly.
EPS Next Y-1.74%
EPS Next 2Y2.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.2%
Revenue Next 2Y7.39%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
MDC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMDC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
MDC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMDC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2 4 6 8

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5

4. MDC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • MDC is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 11.93.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of MDC is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.38, MDC is valued rather cheaply.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.14, MDC is valued correctly.
  • MDC's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • MDC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 38.20.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.93
Fwd PE 12.14
MDC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMDC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as MDC.
  • 68.66% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MDC, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 9.12
EV/EBITDA 9.33
MDC Per share dataMDC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • MDC has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.1
EPS Next 2Y2.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

7

5. MDC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • MDC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.49%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.32, MDC pays a better dividend. On top of this MDC pays more dividend than 88.06% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, MDC pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.49%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of MDC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 15.41%!
  • MDC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • As MDC did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.41%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years6
MDC Yearly Dividends per shareMDC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0.5 1 1.5 2

5.3 Sustainability

  • 38.93% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MDC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
  • MDC's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP38.93%
EPS Next 2Y2.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A
MDC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMDC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M 400M 600M 800M
MDC Dividend Payout.MDC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MDC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MDC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

M D C Holdings Inc

NYSE:MDC (4/18/2024, 8:07:10 PM)

After market: 62.98 0 (0%)

62.98

+0.03 (+0.05%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Durables & Apparel
GICS IndustryHousehold Durables
Earnings (Last)04-25
Earnings (Next)07-25
Inst Owners26.27%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap4.73B
Revenue(TTM)4.64B
Net Income(TTM)398.81M
Analysts48.33
Price Target58.14 (-7.68%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.49%
Yearly Dividend2.11
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.41%
DP38.93%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)9.26%
Min EPS beat(2)3.38%
Max EPS beat(2)15.13%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.26%
Min EPS beat(4)3.38%
Max EPS beat(4)93.72%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)17.75%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)12.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)14.32%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.9%
Max Revenue beat(2)3.41%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)9.71%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)20.29%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)7.44%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.75%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.81%
PT rev (1m)-3.39%
PT rev (3m)8.37%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.76%
EPS NQ rev (3m)9.52%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.2%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)8.96%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)12.73%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.12%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.36%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.93
Fwd PE 12.14
P/S 1.02
P/FCF 9.12
P/OCF 8.42
P/B 1.4
P/tB 1.4
EV/EBITDA 9.33
EPS(TTM)5.28
EY8.38%
EPS(NY)5.19
Fwd EY8.24%
FCF(TTM)6.91
FCFY10.97%
OCF(TTM)7.48
OCFY11.88%
SpS61.86
BVpS45.01
TBVpS44.93
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.1
Graham Number0 (-100%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.08%
ROE 11.81%
ROCE 9.36%
ROIC 6.75%
ROICexc 9.88%
ROICexgc 10.89%
OM 10.03%
PM (TTM) 8.59%
GM 19.29%
FCFM 11.17%
ROA(3y)9.67%
ROA(5y)9.11%
ROE(3y)17.29%
ROE(5y)16.48%
ROIC(3y)11.24%
ROIC(5y)10.2%
ROICexc(3y)13.75%
ROICexc(5y)12.3%
ROICexgc(3y)15.03%
ROICexgc(5y)13.54%
ROCE(3y)15.67%
ROCE(5y)14.28%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-6.21%
ROICexgc growth 5Y1.48%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.69%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.3%
OM growth 3Y-5.46%
OM growth 5Y1.73%
PM growth 3Y-2.84%
PM growth 5Y4.67%
GM growth 3Y-4.58%
GM growth 5Y-0.69%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.82
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.5
Debt/FCF 3.28
Debt/EBITDA 3.46
Cap/Depr 168.85%
Cap/Sales 0.93%
Interest Coverage 507.7
Cash Conversion 114.36%
Profit Quality 130.01%
Current Ratio 7.7
Quick Ratio 2.69
Altman-Z 3.68
F-Score5
WACC9.28%
ROIC/WACC0.73
Cap/Depr(3y)122.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)114.53%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.67%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-31.16%
EPS 3Y0.91%
EPS 5Y10.85%
EPS Q2Q%44.44%
EPS Next Y-1.74%
EPS Next 2Y2.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-18.8%
Revenue growth 3Y5.97%
Revenue growth 5Y8.66%
Sales Q2Q%-11.39%
Revenue Next Year6.2%
Revenue Next 2Y7.39%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-48.03%
EBIT growth 3Y0.19%
EBIT growth 5Y10.54%
EBIT Next Year47.13%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-40.85%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-37.98%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A

M D C Holdings Inc / MDC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to MDC.


What is the valuation status for MDC stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to M D C Holdings Inc (MDC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of MDC stock?

M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What are the PE and PB ratios of M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) is 11.93 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.4.


What is the earnings growth outlook for M D C Holdings Inc?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) is expected to decline by -1.74% in the next year.