MACY'S INC (M) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:M - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US55616P1049 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall M gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated M against 31 industry peers in the Broadline Retail industry. While M is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. M is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. Finally M also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year M was profitable.
M had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
M had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years M always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 3.55%, M is doing good in the industry, outperforming 64.52% of the companies in the same industry.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 12.79%, M is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.97% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of M (6.02%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
M had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.32%. This is below the industry average of 11.67%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.55% | ||
| ROE | 12.79% | ||
| ROIC | 6.02% |
ROA(3y)3.6%
ROA(5y)-0.67%
ROE(3y)14.24%
ROE(5y)-14.45%
ROIC(3y)8.32%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of M (2.53%) is better than 64.52% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of M has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of M (4.07%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
M's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
M's Gross Margin of 40.28% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. M outperforms 48.39% of its industry peers.
M's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.07% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.53% | ||
| GM | 40.28% |
OM growth 3Y-23.39%
OM growth 5Y-2.37%
PM growth 3Y-23.51%
PM growth 5Y2.59%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y0.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), M is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for M has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, M has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, M has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.44 indicates that M is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
M's Altman-Z score of 2.44 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. M outperforms 61.29% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of M is 7.02, which is on the high side as it means it would take M, 7.02 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
M has a Debt to FCF ratio (7.02) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.61 indicates that M is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
M's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.61 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. M is outperformed by 61.29% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.02 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.44 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC8.97%
2.3 Liquidity
M has a Current Ratio of 1.43. This is a normal value and indicates that M is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
M has a Current ratio of 1.43. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: M outperforms 51.61% of its industry peers.
M has a Quick Ratio of 1.43. This is a bad value and indicates that M is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
M has a Quick ratio of 0.44. This is amonst the worse of the industry: M underperforms 90.32% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
M shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -24.14%.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -1.93% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, M shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -3.60% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.91% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-24.14%
EPS 3Y-21.03%
EPS 5Y-1.93%
EPS Q2Q%-26.53%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.6%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.11%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.91%
Sales Q2Q%-4.33%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 3.13% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, M will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -8.44% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-23.01%
EPS Next 2Y-11.3%
EPS Next 3Y-6.47%
EPS Next 5Y3.13%
Revenue Next Year-5.11%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.04%
Revenue Next 3Y-8.44%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 4.17 indicates a rather cheap valuation of M.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, M is valued cheaply inside the industry as 93.55% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.92, M is valued rather cheaply.
M is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.42.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, M is valued cheaply inside the industry as 93.55% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.65. M is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.42 |
4.2 Price Multiples
M's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. M is cheaper than 96.77% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, M is valued cheaper than 80.65% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.75 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
M's earnings are expected to decrease with -6.47% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-11.3%
EPS Next 3Y-6.47%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
M has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.56%, which is a nice return.
The stock price of M dropped by -28.26% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.43, M pays a better dividend. On top of this M pays more dividend than 93.55% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.51, M pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.56% |
5.2 History
The dividend of M decreases each year by -14.36%.
M has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
M has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.36%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
32.99% of the earnings are spent on dividend by M. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP32.99%
EPS Next 2Y-11.3%
EPS Next 3Y-6.47%
11.02
+0.22 (+2.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryBroadline Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners84.57%
Inst Owner Change0.32%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner Change1.82%
Market Cap3.07B
Analysts70
Price Target14.28 (29.58%)
Short Float %6.79%
Short Ratio2.49
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.56% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.36%
DP32.99%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)60.27%
Min EPS beat(2)15.11%
Max EPS beat(2)105.43%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)65.82%
Min EPS beat(4)15.11%
Max EPS beat(4)105.43%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)639.09%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)444.45%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)400.04%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.2%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.69%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.4%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.28%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.67%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.93%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.4%
PT rev (1m)-15.58%
PT rev (3m)-18.88%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-53.42%
EPS NY rev (1m)-14.72%
EPS NY rev (3m)-16.48%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.83%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.7%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.1%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.42 | ||
| P/S | 0.13 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.75 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.4 | ||
| P/B | 0.67 | ||
| P/tB | 0.93 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
EPS(TTM)2.64
EY23.96%
EPS(NY)2.03
Fwd EY18.44%
FCF(TTM)1.42
FCFY12.9%
OCF(TTM)4.59
OCFY41.63%
SpS82.59
BVpS16.34
TBVpS11.84
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.55% | ||
| ROE | 12.79% | ||
| ROCE | 7.89% | ||
| ROIC | 6.02% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.76% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.67% | ||
| OM | 4.07% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.53% | ||
| GM | 40.28% | ||
| FCFM | 1.72% |
ROA(3y)3.6%
ROA(5y)-0.67%
ROE(3y)14.24%
ROE(5y)-14.45%
ROIC(3y)8.32%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)9.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)11.15%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)10.9%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-25.28%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.61%
ROICexc growth 3Y-26.03%
ROICexc growth 5Y2.34%
OM growth 3Y-23.39%
OM growth 5Y-2.37%
PM growth 3Y-23.51%
PM growth 5Y2.59%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y0.08%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.4
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.61 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.02 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.53 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 100.11% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.83% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.05 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 70.3% | ||
| Profit Quality | 68.04% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.44 |
F-Score7
WACC8.97%
ROIC/WACC0.67
Cap/Depr(3y)120.64%
Cap/Depr(5y)95.76%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.37%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.61%
Profit Quality(3y)262.85%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-24.14%
EPS 3Y-21.03%
EPS 5Y-1.93%
EPS Q2Q%-26.53%
EPS Next Y-23.01%
EPS Next 2Y-11.3%
EPS Next 3Y-6.47%
EPS Next 5Y3.13%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.6%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.11%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.91%
Sales Q2Q%-4.33%
Revenue Next Year-5.11%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.04%
Revenue Next 3Y-8.44%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.54%
EBIT growth 3Y-25.78%
EBIT growth 5Y-4.23%
EBIT Next Year81.75%
EBIT Next 3Y18.46%
EBIT Next 5Y14.34%
FCF growth 1Y26.92%
FCF growth 3Y-42.79%
FCF growth 5Y-2.57%
OCF growth 1Y-2.07%
OCF growth 3Y-22.18%
OCF growth 5Y-4.49%