EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS INC (LOCO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:LOCO - Nasdaq - US2686031079 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
LOCO gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. LOCO has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. LOCO scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
LOCO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year LOCO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years LOCO has been profitable.
In the past 5 years LOCO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
LOCO has a Return On Assets of 4.28%. This is in the better half of the industry: LOCO outperforms 64.66% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 9.50%, LOCO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.92% of the companies in the same industry.
LOCO has a Return On Invested Capital (5.82%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for LOCO is significantly below the industry average of 13.81%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.08%) for LOCO is below the current ROIC(5.82%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.28% | ||
| ROE | 9.5% | ||
| ROIC | 5.82% |
ROA(3y)4.05%
ROA(5y)4.18%
ROE(3y)9.15%
ROE(5y)9.13%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)5.31%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.30%, LOCO is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.40% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of LOCO has remained more or less at the same level.
With a Operating Margin value of 8.64%, LOCO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.87% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of LOCO has remained more or less at the same level.
LOCO has a Gross Margin of 51.97%. This is in the better half of the industry: LOCO outperforms 60.90% of its industry peers.
LOCO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 8.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.3% | ||
| GM | 51.97% |
OM growth 3Y-3.32%
OM growth 5Y0.33%
PM growth 3Y-5.35%
PM growth 5Y-0.72%
GM growth 3Y0.83%
GM growth 5Y1.16%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
LOCO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, LOCO has less shares outstanding
LOCO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, LOCO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
LOCO has an Altman-Z score of 1.61. This is a bad value and indicates that LOCO is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.61, LOCO is in line with its industry, outperforming 51.88% of the companies in the same industry.
LOCO has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.39. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as LOCO would need 3.39 years to pay back of all of its debts.
LOCO's Debt to FCF ratio of 3.39 is amongst the best of the industry. LOCO outperforms 81.95% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.28 indicates that LOCO is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of LOCO (0.28) is better than 75.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.39 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.61 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC9.02%
2.3 Liquidity
LOCO has a Current Ratio of 0.32. This is a bad value and indicates that LOCO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.32, LOCO is not doing good in the industry: 87.22% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
LOCO has a Quick Ratio of 0.32. This is a bad value and indicates that LOCO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.29, LOCO is not doing good in the industry: 84.21% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.32 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.29 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
LOCO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 7.50%.
Measured over the past 5 years, LOCO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 3.21% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.22% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, LOCO shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 1.35% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.5%
EPS 3Y1.15%
EPS 5Y3.21%
EPS Q2Q%-13.64%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.22%
Revenue growth 3Y1.35%
Revenue growth 5Y1.35%
Sales Q2Q%2.6%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, LOCO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 1.56% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, LOCO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.78% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-1.72%
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.44%
Revenue Next 2Y2.78%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 12.74, which indicates a correct valuation of LOCO.
89.47% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than LOCO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.30, LOCO is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.94 indicates a reasonable valuation of LOCO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, LOCO is valued cheaper than 83.46% of the companies in the same industry.
LOCO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.76, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.74 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.94 |
4.2 Price Multiples
86.47% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than LOCO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
85.71% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than LOCO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14.94 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.13 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of LOCO may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.97
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for LOCO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
10.96
-0.19 (-1.7%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.93%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners2.4%
Ins Owner Change1.26%
Market Cap329.35M
Analysts78.18
Price Target15.05 (37.32%)
Short Float %5.35%
Short Ratio4.55
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)18.05%
Min EPS beat(2)-9.13%
Max EPS beat(2)45.24%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)20.47%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.13%
Max EPS beat(4)45.24%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)17.83%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)17.16%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)16.65%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.13%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.01%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.47%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.51%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.07%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.98%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.13%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-3.8%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-17.09%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.29%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.82%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.17%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.74 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.94 | ||
| P/S | 0.69 | ||
| P/FCF | 14.94 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.16 | ||
| P/B | 1.24 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.13 |
EPS(TTM)0.86
EY7.85%
EPS(NY)0.92
Fwd EY8.38%
FCF(TTM)0.73
FCFY6.69%
OCF(TTM)1.34
OCFY12.25%
SpS15.84
BVpS8.84
TBVpS-1.49
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.97
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.28% | ||
| ROE | 9.5% | ||
| ROCE | 7.98% | ||
| ROIC | 5.82% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.87% | ||
| ROICexgc | 14.96% | ||
| OM | 8.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.3% | ||
| GM | 51.97% | ||
| FCFM | 4.63% |
ROA(3y)4.05%
ROA(5y)4.18%
ROE(3y)9.15%
ROE(5y)9.13%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)5.31%
ROICexc(3y)5.17%
ROICexc(5y)5.47%
ROICexgc(3y)13.16%
ROICexgc(5y)13.82%
ROCE(3y)6.96%
ROCE(5y)7.28%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-2.78%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.42%
ROICexc growth 3Y-2.31%
ROICexc growth 5Y2.81%
OM growth 3Y-3.32%
OM growth 5Y0.33%
PM growth 3Y-5.35%
PM growth 5Y-0.72%
GM growth 3Y0.83%
GM growth 5Y1.16%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.39 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 116.22% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.85% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 7.67 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 70.94% | ||
| Profit Quality | 87.3% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.32 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.29 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.61 |
F-Score7
WACC9.02%
ROIC/WACC0.65
Cap/Depr(3y)133.19%
Cap/Depr(5y)110.29%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.27%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.63%
Profit Quality(3y)91.05%
Profit Quality(5y)106.37%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.5%
EPS 3Y1.15%
EPS 5Y3.21%
EPS Q2Q%-13.64%
EPS Next Y-1.72%
EPS Next 2Y1.56%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.22%
Revenue growth 3Y1.35%
Revenue growth 5Y1.35%
Sales Q2Q%2.6%
Revenue Next Year4.44%
Revenue Next 2Y2.78%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y6.02%
EBIT growth 3Y-2.01%
EBIT growth 5Y1.69%
EBIT Next Year49.19%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-2.24%
FCF growth 3Y-7.55%
FCF growth 5Y6%
OCF growth 1Y-9.68%
OCF growth 3Y-3.53%
OCF growth 5Y5.3%