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EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS INC (LOCO) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:LOCO - Nasdaq - US2686031079 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

11.83  -0.53 (-4.29%)

After market: 11.76 -0.07 (-0.59%)

Fundamental Rating

5

LOCO gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. LOCO has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. LOCO is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

LOCO had positive earnings in the past year.
LOCO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years LOCO has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years LOCO had a positive operating cash flow.
LOCO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFLOCO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20M 40M

1.2 Ratios

LOCO has a Return On Assets of 4.08%. This is in the better half of the industry: LOCO outperforms 63.36% of its industry peers.
LOCO has a better Return On Equity (9.44%) than 68.70% of its industry peers.
LOCO has a Return On Invested Capital (5.74%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for LOCO is significantly below the industry average of 10.79%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.09%) for LOCO is below the current ROIC(5.74%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.08%
ROE 9.44%
ROIC 5.74%
ROA(3y)4.18%
ROA(5y)4.11%
ROE(3y)8.99%
ROE(5y)9.19%
ROIC(3y)5.09%
ROIC(5y)5.12%
LOCO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICLOCO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2 -2 4 6 8 10

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.11%, LOCO is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.49% of the companies in the same industry.
LOCO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of LOCO (8.64%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
LOCO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 51.46%, LOCO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.31% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of LOCO has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 8.64%
PM (TTM) 5.11%
GM 51.46%
OM growth 3Y-5.43%
OM growth 5Y3.63%
PM growth 3Y-1.75%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.14%
GM growth 5Y0.42%
LOCO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsLOCO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 10 20 30 40 50

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4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

LOCO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
LOCO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for LOCO has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
LOCO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
LOCO Yearly Shares OutstandingLOCO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10M 20M 30M
LOCO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsLOCO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.66, we must say that LOCO is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.66, LOCO is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.38% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of LOCO is 2.71, which is a good value as it means it would take LOCO, 2.71 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of LOCO (2.71) is better than 83.97% of its industry peers.
LOCO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.30. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.30, LOCO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.57% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.3
Debt/FCF 2.71
Altman-Z 1.66
ROIC/WACC0.62
WACC9.3%
LOCO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFLOCO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100M 200M 300M

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.31 indicates that LOCO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.31, LOCO is doing worse than 87.79% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.29 indicates that LOCO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
LOCO has a Quick ratio of 0.29. This is amonst the worse of the industry: LOCO underperforms 85.50% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.31
Quick Ratio 0.29
LOCO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesLOCO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20M 40M 60M 80M

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4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 18.06% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -0.55% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, LOCO shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -0.28% in the last year.
LOCO shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 1.46% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)18.06%
EPS 3Y-3.45%
EPS 5Y-0.55%
EPS Q2Q%10.53%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.28%
Revenue growth 3Y3.22%
Revenue growth 5Y1.46%
Sales Q2Q%0%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 13.79% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
LOCO is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.29% yearly.
EPS Next Y17.23%
EPS Next 2Y16.01%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.38%
Revenue Next 2Y2.81%
Revenue Next 3Y2.29%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
LOCO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesLOCO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M
LOCO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesLOCO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

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8

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

LOCO is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.92.
85.50% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than LOCO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.63. LOCO is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 12.21, which indicates a correct valuation of LOCO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, LOCO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 87.79% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.68. LOCO is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.92
Fwd PE 12.21
LOCO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsLOCO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40 50

4.2 Price Multiples

LOCO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. LOCO is cheaper than 83.97% of the companies in the same industry.
91.60% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than LOCO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 12.34
EV/EBITDA 7.8
LOCO Per share dataLOCO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

LOCO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
LOCO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as LOCO's earnings are expected to grow with 13.79% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.81
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y16.01%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

LOCO does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS INC

NASDAQ:LOCO (2/21/2025, 8:00:00 PM)

After market: 11.76 -0.07 (-0.59%)

11.83

-0.53 (-4.29%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)10-31 2024-10-31/amc
Earnings (Next)03-06 2025-03-06/amc
Inst Owners93.2%
Inst Owner Change1.39%
Ins Owners3.84%
Ins Owner Change-0.16%
Market Cap354.19M
Analysts78
Price Target14.28 (20.71%)
Short Float %7.16%
Short Ratio10.44
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly Dividend1.51
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)22.88%
Min EPS beat(2)22.84%
Max EPS beat(2)22.91%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)24.09%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.47%
Max EPS beat(4)54.06%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)18.62%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)16.85%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)15.14%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.49%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.47%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.51%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.11%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.47%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.52%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.12%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.94%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.28%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)1.82%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.82%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.04%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.36%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 13.92
Fwd PE 12.21
P/S 0.75
P/FCF 12.34
P/OCF 7.18
P/B 1.39
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 7.8
EPS(TTM)0.85
EY7.19%
EPS(NY)0.97
Fwd EY8.19%
FCF(TTM)0.96
FCFY8.11%
OCF(TTM)1.65
OCFY13.93%
SpS15.73
BVpS8.52
TBVpS-1.85
PEG (NY)0.81
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.08%
ROE 9.44%
ROCE 7.91%
ROIC 5.74%
ROICexc 5.83%
ROICexgc 15.08%
OM 8.64%
PM (TTM) 5.11%
GM 51.46%
FCFM 6.1%
ROA(3y)4.18%
ROA(5y)4.11%
ROE(3y)8.99%
ROE(5y)9.19%
ROIC(3y)5.09%
ROIC(5y)5.12%
ROICexc(3y)5.29%
ROICexc(5y)5.28%
ROICexgc(3y)13.52%
ROICexgc(5y)13.16%
ROCE(3y)7.01%
ROCE(5y)7.05%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-0.31%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-20.65%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.55%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2%
OM growth 3Y-5.43%
OM growth 5Y3.63%
PM growth 3Y-1.75%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-0.14%
GM growth 5Y0.42%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.3
Debt/FCF 2.71
Debt/EBITDA 1.38
Cap/Depr 131.19%
Cap/Sales 4.38%
Interest Coverage 6.82
Cash Conversion 87.47%
Profit Quality 119.23%
Current Ratio 0.31
Quick Ratio 0.29
Altman-Z 1.66
F-Score7
WACC9.3%
ROIC/WACC0.62
Cap/Depr(3y)130.14%
Cap/Depr(5y)103.3%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.18%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.52%
Profit Quality(3y)95.26%
Profit Quality(5y)101.43%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)18.06%
EPS 3Y-3.45%
EPS 5Y-0.55%
EPS Q2Q%10.53%
EPS Next Y17.23%
EPS Next 2Y16.01%
EPS Next 3Y13.79%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.28%
Revenue growth 3Y3.22%
Revenue growth 5Y1.46%
Sales Q2Q%0%
Revenue Next Year1.38%
Revenue Next 2Y2.81%
Revenue Next 3Y2.29%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y9.35%
EBIT growth 3Y-2.38%
EBIT growth 5Y5.15%
EBIT Next Year51.73%
EBIT Next 3Y16.67%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y100.52%
FCF growth 3Y-17.01%
FCF growth 5Y1.87%
OCF growth 1Y55.69%
OCF growth 3Y0.11%
OCF growth 5Y-2.18%