ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:LLY - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US5324571083 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, LLY scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. LLY was compared to 198 industry peers in the Pharmaceuticals industry. While LLY has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. LLY is not overvalued while it is showing excellent growth. This is an interesting combination.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year LLY was profitable.
In the past year LLY had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years LLY has always been profitable.
LLY had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 13.45%, LLY belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.96% of the companies in the same industry.
LLY has a better Return On Equity (74.62%) than 98.99% of its industry peers.
LLY's Return On Invested Capital of 27.67% is amongst the best of the industry. LLY outperforms 97.47% of its industry peers.
LLY had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 21.71%. This is significantly below the industry average of 41.77%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (27.67%) for LLY is above the 3 year average (21.71%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 13.45% | ||
| ROE | 74.62% | ||
| ROIC | 27.67% |
ROA(3y)11.42%
ROA(5y)11.8%
ROE(3y)60.64%
ROE(5y)70.77%
ROIC(3y)21.71%
ROIC(5y)19.96%
1.3 Margins
LLY has a better Profit Margin (23.51%) than 95.96% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of LLY has declined.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 37.83%, LLY belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 96.97% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of LLY has grown nicely.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 81.31%, LLY belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.35% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of LLY has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 37.83% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.51% | ||
| GM | 81.31% |
OM growth 3Y12.38%
OM growth 5Y7.84%
PM growth 3Y6.05%
PM growth 5Y-8.8%
GM growth 3Y3.11%
GM growth 5Y0.62%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), LLY is creating value.
LLY has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
LLY has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for LLY is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
LLY has an Altman-Z score of 9.00. This indicates that LLY is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
LLY has a better Altman-Z score (9.00) than 88.89% of its industry peers.
LLY has a debt to FCF ratio of 81.21. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as LLY would need 81.21 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of LLY (81.21) is better than 75.76% of its industry peers.
LLY has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.01. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 2.01, LLY is doing worse than 75.25% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.01 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 81.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 9 |
ROIC/WACC2.93
WACC9.44%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.15 indicates that LLY should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.15, LLY is not doing good in the industry: 79.80% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 0.89 indicates that LLY may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.89, LLY is not doing good in the industry: 79.29% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.15 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.89 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 105.70% over the past year.
LLY shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 16.57% yearly.
LLY shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 32.00%.
The Revenue has been growing by 15.08% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)105.7%
EPS 3Y16.75%
EPS 5Y16.57%
EPS Q2Q%113.65%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)32%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y15.08%
Sales Q2Q%44.68%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, LLY will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 30.37% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, LLY will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 17.76% on average per year.
EPS Next Y78.29%
EPS Next 2Y51.71%
EPS Next 3Y41.96%
EPS Next 5Y30.37%
Revenue Next Year32.02%
Revenue Next 2Y25.55%
Revenue Next 3Y22.64%
Revenue Next 5Y17.76%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 64.61, the valuation of LLY can be described as expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, LLY is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 78.79% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of LLY to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.29), we can say LLY is valued expensively.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 36.24, LLY can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of LLY indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: LLY is cheaper than 78.28% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.32. LLY is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 64.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 36.24 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, LLY is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 76.77% of the companies are valued more expensively.
LLY's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. LLY is cheaper than 76.26% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 1921.97 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 43.94 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
LLY has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as LLY's earnings are expected to grow with 41.96% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.83
PEG (5Y)3.9
EPS Next 2Y51.71%
EPS Next 3Y41.96%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.71%, LLY is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
LLY's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 4.72. LLY pays more dividend than 89.90% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.51, LLY's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.71% |
5.2 History
The dividend of LLY is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 15.60%!
LLY has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
LLY has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.6%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
LLY pays out 44.20% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of LLY is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP44.2%
EPS Next 2Y51.71%
EPS Next 3Y41.96%
839.96
+105.06 (+14.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorHealth Care
GICS IndustryGroupPharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
GICS IndustryPharmaceuticals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners83.27%
Inst Owner Change1.81%
Ins Owners0.16%
Ins Owner Change-0.72%
Market Cap796.27B
Analysts82.5
Price Target1043.17 (24.19%)
Short Float %0.77%
Short Ratio1.94
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.71% |
Yearly Dividend4.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.6%
DP44.2%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.94%
Min EPS beat(2)-20.34%
Max EPS beat(2)6.45%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)9.86%
Min EPS beat(4)-20.34%
Max EPS beat(4)49.43%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)27.82%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)19.37%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)13.42%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.85%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.24%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.6%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)12.82%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.51%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.42%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.11%
PT rev (1m)2.7%
PT rev (3m)3.17%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-14.07%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.33%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.62%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.07%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.13%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.44%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.57%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 64.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 36.24 | ||
| P/S | 17.68 | ||
| P/FCF | 1921.97 | ||
| P/OCF | 90.3 | ||
| P/B | 56.11 | ||
| P/tB | 353.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 43.94 |
EPS(TTM)13
EY1.55%
EPS(NY)23.18
Fwd EY2.76%
FCF(TTM)0.44
FCFY0.05%
OCF(TTM)9.3
OCFY1.11%
SpS47.51
BVpS14.97
TBVpS2.38
PEG (NY)0.83
PEG (5Y)3.9
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 13.45% | ||
| ROE | 74.62% | ||
| ROCE | 33.85% | ||
| ROIC | 27.67% | ||
| ROICexc | 29.69% | ||
| ROICexgc | 39.82% | ||
| OM | 37.83% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.51% | ||
| GM | 81.31% | ||
| FCFM | 0.92% |
ROA(3y)11.42%
ROA(5y)11.8%
ROE(3y)60.64%
ROE(5y)70.77%
ROIC(3y)21.71%
ROIC(5y)19.96%
ROICexc(3y)23.23%
ROICexc(5y)21.74%
ROICexgc(3y)32.89%
ROICexgc(5y)32.31%
ROCE(3y)29.19%
ROCE(5y)26%
ROICexcg growth 3Y1.59%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.02%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.55%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.81%
OM growth 3Y12.38%
OM growth 5Y7.84%
PM growth 3Y6.05%
PM growth 5Y-8.8%
GM growth 3Y3.11%
GM growth 5Y0.62%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.57
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 2.01 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 81.21 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.52 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 475.69% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 18.66% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 29.51 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 46.89% | ||
| Profit Quality | 3.91% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.15 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.89 | ||
| Altman-Z | 9 |
F-Score7
WACC9.44%
ROIC/WACC2.93
Cap/Depr(3y)374.28%
Cap/Depr(5y)279.43%
Cap/Sales(3y)16.34%
Cap/Sales(5y)12.78%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)105.7%
EPS 3Y16.75%
EPS 5Y16.57%
EPS Q2Q%113.65%
EPS Next Y78.29%
EPS Next 2Y51.71%
EPS Next 3Y41.96%
EPS Next 5Y30.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)32%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y15.08%
Sales Q2Q%44.68%
Revenue Next Year32.02%
Revenue Next 2Y25.55%
Revenue Next 3Y22.64%
Revenue Next 5Y17.76%
EBIT growth 1Y65.03%
EBIT growth 3Y31.18%
EBIT growth 5Y24.1%
EBIT Next Year96.28%
EBIT Next 3Y44.1%
EBIT Next 5Y29.16%
FCF growth 1Y113.14%
FCF growth 3Y-57.48%
FCF growth 5Y-34.68%
OCF growth 1Y107.96%
OCF growth 3Y6.69%
OCF growth 5Y12.76%