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ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:LLY - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US5324571083 - Common Stock

725.72  -31.88 (-4.21%)

Premarket: 727.49 +1.77 (+0.24%)

Fundamental Rating

6

We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to LLY. LLY was compared to 195 industry peers in the Pharmaceuticals industry. While LLY has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. LLY is growing strongly while it is still valued neutral. This is a good combination!


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

LLY had positive earnings in the past year.
LLY had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
LLY had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
LLY had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
LLY Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFLLY Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B -2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

1.2 Ratios

LLY's Return On Assets of 11.07% is amongst the best of the industry. LLY outperforms 95.16% of its industry peers.
LLY has a Return On Equity of 58.78%. This is amongst the best in the industry. LLY outperforms 98.39% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of LLY (24.33%) is better than 97.31% of its industry peers.
LLY had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 20.29%. This is significantly below the industry average of 43.99%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (24.33%) for LLY is above the 3 year average (20.29%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 11.07%
ROE 58.78%
ROIC 24.33%
ROA(3y)10.75%
ROA(5y)13.34%
ROE(3y)56.48%
ROE(5y)119.66%
ROIC(3y)20.29%
ROIC(5y)19.04%
LLY Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICLLY Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 20.48%, LLY belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 93.55% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of LLY has remained more or less at the same level.
LLY's Operating Margin of 35.33% is amongst the best of the industry. LLY outperforms 96.24% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of LLY has grown nicely.
The Gross Margin of LLY (80.91%) is better than 85.48% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of LLY has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 35.33%
PM (TTM) 20.48%
GM 80.91%
OM growth 3Y2.73%
OM growth 5Y2.37%
PM growth 3Y-15.26%
PM growth 5Y0.42%
GM growth 3Y0.68%
GM growth 5Y0.26%
LLY Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsLLY Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 40 60

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so LLY is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, LLY has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
The number of shares outstanding for LLY has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for LLY is higher compared to a year ago.
LLY Yearly Shares OutstandingLLY Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
LLY Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsLLY Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20B 40B 60B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 8.27 indicates that LLY is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 8.27, LLY belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.56% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 2.04 is on the high side and indicates that LLY has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 2.04, LLY is not doing good in the industry: 80.11% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.04
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 8.27
ROIC/WACC2.3
WACC10.59%
LLY Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFLLY Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that LLY should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of LLY (1.27) is worse than 80.11% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.97 indicates that LLY may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of LLY (0.97) is worse than 80.11% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.27
Quick Ratio 0.97
LLY Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesLLY Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B

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9

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 71.79% over the past year.
LLY shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 2.60% yearly.
Looking at the last year, LLY shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 27.41%.
LLY shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 9.69% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)71.79%
EPS 3Y-7.29%
EPS 5Y2.6%
EPS Q2Q%1080%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)27.41%
Revenue growth 3Y11.62%
Revenue growth 5Y9.69%
Sales Q2Q%20.43%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 45.88% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
LLY is expected to show a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 21.58% yearly.
EPS Next Y110.28%
EPS Next 2Y89.67%
EPS Next 3Y68.28%
EPS Next 5Y45.88%
Revenue Next Year35.2%
Revenue Next 2Y31.95%
Revenue Next 3Y28.08%
Revenue Next 5Y21.58%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
LLY Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesLLY Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 20B 40B 60B 80B 100B
LLY Yearly EPS VS EstimatesLLY Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 20 40 60

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

LLY is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 71.36.
LLY's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. LLY is cheaper than 79.57% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.94, LLY is valued quite expensively.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 31.92, which means the current valuation is very expensive for LLY.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, LLY is valued a bit cheaper than 77.42% of the companies in the same industry.
LLY's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit more expensive than the S&P500 average which is at 24.11.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 71.36
Fwd PE 31.92
LLY Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsLLY Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of LLY indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: LLY is cheaper than 76.34% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 44.48
LLY Per share dataLLY EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

LLY's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
LLY has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as LLY's earnings are expected to grow with 68.28% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.65
PEG (5Y)27.49
EPS Next 2Y89.67%
EPS Next 3Y68.28%

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6

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

LLY has a yearly dividend return of 0.79%, which is pretty low.
In the last 3 months the price of LLY has falen by -20.94%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
LLY's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 4.09. LLY pays more dividend than 89.78% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.28, LLY's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.79%

5.2 History

On average, the dividend of LLY grows each year by 14.87%, which is quite nice.
LLY has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
LLY has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)14.87%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
LLY Yearly Dividends per shareLLY Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1 2 3 4 5

5.3 Sustainability

54.12% of the earnings are spent on dividend by LLY. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of LLY is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP54.12%
EPS Next 2Y89.67%
EPS Next 3Y68.28%
LLY Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendLLY Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B -2B 4B 6B 8B
LLY Dividend Payout.LLY Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.LLY Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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ELI LILLY & CO

NYSE:LLY (1/17/2025, 8:12:39 PM)

Premarket: 727.49 +1.77 (+0.24%)

725.72

-31.88 (-4.21%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorHealth Care
GICS IndustryGroupPharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
GICS IndustryPharmaceuticals
Earnings (Last)10-30 2024-10-30/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-06 2025-02-06/bmo
Inst Owners83.57%
Inst Owner Change-1.54%
Ins Owners0.15%
Ins Owner Change-0.06%
Market Cap688.94B
Analysts81.76
Price Target1011.1 (39.32%)
Short Float %0.64%
Short Ratio1.42
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.79%
Yearly Dividend4.28
Dividend Growth(5Y)14.87%
DP54.12%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date02-14 2025-02-14 (1.5)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)14.55%
Min EPS beat(2)-20.34%
Max EPS beat(2)49.43%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)11.03%
Min EPS beat(4)-20.34%
Max EPS beat(4)49.43%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)29.04%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)18.85%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)14%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.18%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)12.82%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.83%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)12.82%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.49%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.73%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.25%
PT rev (1m)-0.76%
PT rev (3m)-1.2%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)18.02%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-19.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)9.07%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.12%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.63%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 71.36
Fwd PE 31.92
P/S 16.86
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 114.21
P/B 48.38
P/tB 356.17
EV/EBITDA 44.48
EPS(TTM)10.17
EY1.4%
EPS(NY)22.74
Fwd EY3.13%
FCF(TTM)-2.4
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)6.35
OCFY0.88%
SpS43.04
BVpS15
TBVpS2.04
PEG (NY)0.65
PEG (5Y)27.49
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 11.07%
ROE 58.78%
ROCE 28.34%
ROIC 24.33%
ROICexc 26.14%
ROICexgc 35.3%
OM 35.33%
PM (TTM) 20.48%
GM 80.91%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)10.75%
ROA(5y)13.34%
ROE(3y)56.48%
ROE(5y)119.66%
ROIC(3y)20.29%
ROIC(5y)19.04%
ROICexc(3y)22.12%
ROICexc(5y)20.87%
ROICexgc(3y)33.97%
ROICexgc(5y)32.6%
ROCE(3y)25.36%
ROCE(5y)23.44%
ROICexcg growth 3Y1.05%
ROICexcg growth 5Y7.54%
ROICexc growth 3Y4.74%
ROICexc growth 5Y2.31%
OM growth 3Y2.73%
OM growth 5Y2.37%
PM growth 3Y-15.26%
PM growth 5Y0.42%
GM growth 3Y0.68%
GM growth 5Y0.26%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.54
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.04
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 1.8
Cap/Depr 497.6%
Cap/Sales 20.33%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 37.45%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.27
Quick Ratio 0.97
Altman-Z 8.27
F-Score6
WACC10.59%
ROIC/WACC2.3
Cap/Depr(3y)256.06%
Cap/Depr(5y)206.25%
Cap/Sales(3y)12.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.26%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)71.79%
EPS 3Y-7.29%
EPS 5Y2.6%
EPS Q2Q%1080%
EPS Next Y110.28%
EPS Next 2Y89.67%
EPS Next 3Y68.28%
EPS Next 5Y45.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)27.41%
Revenue growth 3Y11.62%
Revenue growth 5Y9.69%
Sales Q2Q%20.43%
Revenue Next Year35.2%
Revenue Next 2Y31.95%
Revenue Next 3Y28.08%
Revenue Next 5Y21.58%
EBIT growth 1Y54.2%
EBIT growth 3Y14.66%
EBIT growth 5Y12.28%
EBIT Next Year144.43%
EBIT Next 3Y71.21%
EBIT Next 5Y47.06%
FCF growth 1Y-142.62%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-25.34%
OCF growth 3Y-13.27%
OCF growth 5Y-5.15%