KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:KDP - Nasdaq - US49271V1008 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, KDP scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. KDP was compared to 32 industry peers in the Beverages industry. KDP has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. KDP has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year KDP was profitable.
KDP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years KDP has been profitable.
In the past 5 years KDP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.80%, KDP is doing worse than 62.50% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Return On Equity of 6.15% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. KDP outperforms 40.63% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of KDP (5.58%) is worse than 68.75% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for KDP is significantly below the industry average of 11.61%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.40%) for KDP is below the current ROIC(5.58%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.8% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROIC | 5.58% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.69%, KDP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.75% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
KDP has a Operating Margin of 22.12%. This is in the better half of the industry: KDP outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of KDP has remained more or less at the same level.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 55.25%, KDP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 22.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.69% | ||
| GM | 55.25% |
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so KDP is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, KDP has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for KDP has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for KDP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
KDP has an Altman-Z score of 1.46. This is a bad value and indicates that KDP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
KDP's Altman-Z score of 1.46 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. KDP is outperformed by 65.63% of its industry peers.
KDP has a debt to FCF ratio of 9.45. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as KDP would need 9.45 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 9.45, KDP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 43.75% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.64. This is a neutral value indicating KDP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
KDP has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.64) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 9.45 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.46 |
ROIC/WACC0.76
WACC7.38%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.47 indicates that KDP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.47, KDP is doing worse than 84.38% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP has a Quick Ratio of 0.47. This is a bad value and indicates that KDP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.29, KDP is not doing good in the industry: 84.38% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.29 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
KDP shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 7.10%.
Measured over the past years, KDP shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 9.49% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, KDP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 3.95% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, KDP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 6.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.1%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%10.53%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.95%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%4.82%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 3.06% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.07% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y7.2%
EPS Next 2Y6.8%
EPS Next 3Y6.74%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue Next Year5.77%
Revenue Next 2Y4.87%
Revenue Next 3Y4.46%
Revenue Next 5Y4.07%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 17.23 indicates a rather expensive valuation of KDP.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, KDP is valued a bit cheaper than 65.63% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.29. KDP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.42, KDP is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, KDP is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.25% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.74, KDP is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.42 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of KDP is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, KDP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.63% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 25.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.77 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates KDP does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
PEG (NY)2.39
PEG (5Y)1.82
EPS Next 2Y6.8%
EPS Next 3Y6.74%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
KDP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.72%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.02, KDP pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.37, KDP has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.72% |
5.2 History
The dividend of KDP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.69%!
KDP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
As KDP did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
KDP pays out 80.25% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of KDP is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP80.25%
EPS Next 2Y6.8%
EPS Next 3Y6.74%
33.78
-0.01 (-0.03%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryBeverages
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.35%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.65%
Ins Owner Change0.98%
Market Cap45.88B
Analysts77.6
Price Target40.16 (18.89%)
Short Float %1.63%
Short Ratio1.72
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.72% |
Yearly Dividend0.87
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
DP80.25%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)4.5%
Min EPS beat(2)0.25%
Max EPS beat(2)8.75%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)1.89%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.91%
Max EPS beat(4)8.75%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)2.7%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.58%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)1.12%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.22%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.86%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.4%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.89%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.86%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.17%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.15%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.49%
PT rev (1m)0.76%
PT rev (3m)2.82%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.14%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.1%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.05%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.29%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.37%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.42 | ||
| P/S | 2.96 | ||
| P/FCF | 25.83 | ||
| P/OCF | 19.58 | ||
| P/B | 1.88 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.77 |
EPS(TTM)1.96
EY5.8%
EPS(NY)2.19
Fwd EY6.48%
FCF(TTM)1.31
FCFY3.87%
OCF(TTM)1.73
OCFY5.11%
SpS11.43
BVpS18
TBVpS-14.16
PEG (NY)2.39
PEG (5Y)1.82
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.8% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROCE | 7.71% | ||
| ROIC | 5.58% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.65% | ||
| ROICexgc | 82.82% | ||
| OM | 22.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.69% | ||
| GM | 55.25% | ||
| FCFM | 11.44% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
ROICexc(3y)5.46%
ROICexc(5y)5.47%
ROICexgc(3y)231.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.24%
ROCE(5y)7.17%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-33.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y0.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y6.63%
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.29
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 9.45 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.91 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 101.07% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.65% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.1 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 58.66% | ||
| Profit Quality | 118.09% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.29 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.46 |
F-Score6
WACC7.38%
ROIC/WACC0.76
Cap/Depr(3y)90.63%
Cap/Depr(5y)91.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.61%
Profit Quality(3y)106.96%
Profit Quality(5y)115.99%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.1%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%10.53%
EPS Next Y7.2%
EPS Next 2Y6.8%
EPS Next 3Y6.74%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.95%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%4.82%
Revenue Next Year5.77%
Revenue Next 2Y4.87%
Revenue Next 3Y4.46%
Revenue Next 5Y4.07%
EBIT growth 1Y1.51%
EBIT growth 3Y2.56%
EBIT growth 5Y7.55%
EBIT Next Year20.96%
EBIT Next 3Y10.05%
EBIT Next 5Y5.98%
FCF growth 1Y-5.13%
FCF growth 3Y-12.93%
FCF growth 5Y-5.41%
OCF growth 1Y4.37%
OCF growth 3Y-8.26%
OCF growth 5Y-2.15%