KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:KDP - US49271V1008 - Common Stock
26.75 USD
-0.48 (-1.76%)
26.7999 USD
+0.05 (+0.19%)
Overall KDP gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated KDP against 32 industry peers in the Beverages industry. There are concerns on the financial health of KDP while its profitability can be described as average. KDP has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
KDP had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year KDP had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years KDP has been profitable.
KDP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
KDP has a Return On Assets of 2.83%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: KDP outperforms 43.75% of its industry peers.
KDP has a Return On Equity of 6.15%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: KDP outperforms 40.63% of its industry peers.
KDP has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.48%. This is in the lower half of the industry: KDP underperforms 62.50% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for KDP is significantly below the industry average of 11.08%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.40%) for KDP is below the current ROIC(5.48%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.83% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROIC | 5.48% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 9.75%, KDP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.88% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of KDP (21.90%) is better than 78.13% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of KDP has remained more or less at the same level.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 54.93%, KDP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.75% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.75% | ||
| GM | 54.93% |
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
KDP has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, KDP has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, KDP has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, KDP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
KDP has an Altman-Z score of 1.33. This is a bad value and indicates that KDP is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
KDP has a worse Altman-Z score (1.33) than 62.50% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of KDP is 10.64, which is on the high side as it means it would take KDP, 10.64 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 10.64, KDP is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.88% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.64. This is a neutral value indicating KDP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
KDP has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.64. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: KDP outperforms 46.88% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC6.87%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.64 indicates that KDP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
KDP has a worse Current ratio (0.64) than 84.38% of its industry peers.
KDP has a Quick Ratio of 0.64. This is a bad value and indicates that KDP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of KDP (0.38) is worse than 81.25% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
KDP shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 7.53%.
KDP shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 9.49% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.63% in the past year.
KDP shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 6.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.53%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%8.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.63%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%6.14%
3.2 Future
KDP is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 4.24% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.12% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y7.64%
EPS Next 2Y7.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.96%
EPS Next 5Y4.24%
Revenue Next Year6.26%
Revenue Next 2Y5.21%
Revenue Next 3Y4.78%
Revenue Next 5Y5.12%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 13.38, which indicates a correct valuation of KDP.
KDP's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. KDP is cheaper than 84.38% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.27. KDP is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.16, KDP is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, KDP is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.25% of the companies are valued more expensively.
KDP is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.77, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.38 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.16 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of KDP is on the same level as its industry peers.
KDP's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. KDP is cheaper than 62.50% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 23.07 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.88 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.75
PEG (5Y)1.41
EPS Next 2Y7.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.96%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
KDP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.33%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
The stock price of KDP dropped by -20.34% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
KDP's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 2.84. KDP pays more dividend than 84.38% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.33% |
5.2 History
The dividend of KDP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.69%!
KDP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
As KDP did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
KDP pays out 79.95% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
KDP's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP79.95%
EPS Next 2Y7.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.96%
26.75
-0.48 (-1.76%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryBeverages
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.64%
Inst Owner Change7.42%
Ins Owners0.65%
Ins Owner Change-0.42%
Market Cap36.34B
Analysts76.8
Price Target38.5 (43.93%)
Short Float %2.7%
Short Ratio2.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.33% |
Yearly Dividend0.87
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
DP79.95%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.27%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.22%
Max EPS beat(2)8.75%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)2.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.55%
Max EPS beat(4)8.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.3%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.66%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.86%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.29%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.89%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.86%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.42%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.23%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.37%
PT rev (1m)-2.6%
PT rev (3m)-3.39%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.04%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.3%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.35%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.41%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.99%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.46%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.38 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.16 | ||
| P/S | 2.31 | ||
| P/FCF | 23.07 | ||
| P/OCF | 17.16 | ||
| P/B | 1.45 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.88 |
EPS(TTM)2
EY7.48%
EPS(NY)2.2
Fwd EY8.22%
FCF(TTM)1.16
FCFY4.33%
OCF(TTM)1.56
OCFY5.83%
SpS11.6
BVpS18.39
TBVpS-14.05
PEG (NY)1.75
PEG (5Y)1.41
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.83% | ||
| ROE | 6.15% | ||
| ROCE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 5.48% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.53% | ||
| ROICexgc | 65.34% | ||
| OM | 21.9% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.75% | ||
| GM | 54.93% | ||
| FCFM | 9.99% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
ROICexc(3y)5.46%
ROICexc(5y)5.47%
ROICexgc(3y)231.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.24%
ROCE(5y)7.17%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-33.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y0.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y6.63%
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.29
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.64 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.01 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 95.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.16 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 52.7% | ||
| Profit Quality | 102.54% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.64 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.38 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
F-Score6
WACC6.87%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)90.63%
Cap/Depr(5y)91.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.61%
Profit Quality(3y)106.96%
Profit Quality(5y)115.99%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.53%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%8.89%
EPS Next Y7.64%
EPS Next 2Y7.04%
EPS Next 3Y6.96%
EPS Next 5Y4.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.63%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%6.14%
Revenue Next Year6.26%
Revenue Next 2Y5.21%
Revenue Next 3Y4.78%
Revenue Next 5Y5.12%
EBIT growth 1Y-1.51%
EBIT growth 3Y2.56%
EBIT growth 5Y7.55%
EBIT Next Year21.61%
EBIT Next 3Y10.21%
EBIT Next 5Y8.67%
FCF growth 1Y0.77%
FCF growth 3Y-12.93%
FCF growth 5Y-5.41%
OCF growth 1Y8.56%
OCF growth 3Y-8.26%
OCF growth 5Y-2.15%