KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:KDP - US49271V1008 - Common Stock
25.96 USD
-0.4 (-1.52%)
25.9688 USD
+0.01 (+0.03%)
Taking everything into account, KDP scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. KDP was compared to 33 industry peers in the Beverages industry. There are concerns on the financial health of KDP while its profitability can be described as average. KDP has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
KDP had positive earnings in the past year.
KDP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years KDP has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years KDP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
KDP has a Return On Assets of 2.90%. This is in the lower half of the industry: KDP underperforms 60.61% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of 6.25%, KDP is not doing good in the industry: 63.64% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
KDP has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.64%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: KDP outperforms 42.42% of its industry peers.
KDP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.40%. This is significantly below the industry average of 10.75%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.64%) for KDP is above the 3 year average (5.40%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.9% | ||
| ROE | 6.25% | ||
| ROIC | 5.64% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
1.3 Margins
KDP's Profit Margin of 9.78% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. KDP outperforms 69.70% of its industry peers.
KDP's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
KDP has a Operating Margin of 21.91%. This is in the better half of the industry: KDP outperforms 78.79% of its industry peers.
KDP's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of KDP (54.76%) is better than 69.70% of its industry peers.
KDP's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.78% | ||
| GM | 54.76% |
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
KDP has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, KDP has less shares outstanding
KDP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
KDP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.33, we must say that KDP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
KDP has a Altman-Z score of 1.33. This is in the lower half of the industry: KDP underperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
KDP has a debt to FCF ratio of 10.44. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as KDP would need 10.44 years to pay back of all of its debts.
KDP has a Debt to FCF ratio of 10.44. This is in the lower half of the industry: KDP underperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
KDP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62. This is a neutral value indicating KDP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of KDP (0.62) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
ROIC/WACC0.82
WACC6.87%
2.3 Liquidity
KDP has a Current Ratio of 0.62. This is a bad value and indicates that KDP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.62, KDP is doing worse than 87.88% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.36 indicates that KDP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
KDP has a worse Quick ratio (0.36) than 87.88% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.41% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 9.49% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, KDP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 6.77% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.41%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%5.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.77%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%10.67%
3.2 Future
KDP is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 7.11% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, KDP will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.32% on average per year.
EPS Next Y7.53%
EPS Next 2Y6.74%
EPS Next 3Y6.71%
EPS Next 5Y7.11%
Revenue Next Year7.46%
Revenue Next 2Y6.07%
Revenue Next 3Y5.34%
Revenue Next 5Y4.32%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.79, KDP is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of KDP indicates a rather cheap valuation: KDP is cheaper than 81.82% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 25.83. KDP is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.87, the valuation of KDP can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, KDP is valued a bit cheaper than 78.79% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 32.68.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.87 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as KDP.
KDP's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.05 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.26 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
KDP's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.7
PEG (5Y)1.35
EPS Next 2Y6.74%
EPS Next 3Y6.71%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
KDP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.49%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
The stock price of KDP dropped by -24.58% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.06, KDP pays a better dividend. On top of this KDP pays more dividend than 81.82% of the companies listed in the same industry.
KDP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.39.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.49% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of KDP grows each year by 7.69%, which is quite nice.
KDP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
As KDP did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
KDP pays out 78.89% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of KDP is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP78.89%
EPS Next 2Y6.74%
EPS Next 3Y6.71%
25.96
-0.4 (-1.52%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryBeverages
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners95.21%
Inst Owner Change-0.31%
Ins Owners0.62%
Ins Owner Change-0.25%
Market Cap35.27B
Revenue(TTM)16.17B
Net Income(TTM)1.58B
Analysts75.65
Price Target35.1 (35.21%)
Short Float %2.3%
Short Ratio1.51
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.49% |
Yearly Dividend0.87
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
DP78.89%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.3%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.38%
Max EPS beat(2)-0.22%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)2.1%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.38%
Max EPS beat(4)8.75%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)2.06%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.7%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1.05%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.69%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.36%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.69%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.08%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.1%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.43%
PT rev (1m)-8.83%
PT rev (3m)-11.56%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.26%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.67%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.05%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.18%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.05%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.14%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.04%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.87 | ||
| P/S | 2.18 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.05 | ||
| P/OCF | 16.57 | ||
| P/B | 1.39 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.26 |
EPS(TTM)2.03
EY7.82%
EPS(NY)2.19
Fwd EY8.43%
FCF(TTM)1.18
FCFY4.53%
OCF(TTM)1.57
OCFY6.03%
SpS11.91
BVpS18.64
TBVpS-13.74
PEG (NY)1.7
PEG (5Y)1.35
Graham Number29.18
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.9% | ||
| ROE | 6.25% | ||
| ROCE | 7.53% | ||
| ROIC | 5.64% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 68.39% | ||
| OM | 21.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.78% | ||
| GM | 54.76% | ||
| FCFM | 9.89% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
ROICexc(3y)5.46%
ROICexc(5y)5.47%
ROICexgc(3y)231.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.24%
ROCE(5y)7.17%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-33.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y0.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y6.63%
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.3
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.44 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 90.89% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.27% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.29 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 51.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 101.08% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
F-Score6
WACC6.87%
ROIC/WACC0.82
Cap/Depr(3y)90.63%
Cap/Depr(5y)91.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.61%
Profit Quality(3y)106.96%
Profit Quality(5y)115.99%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.41%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%5.88%
EPS Next Y7.53%
EPS Next 2Y6.74%
EPS Next 3Y6.71%
EPS Next 5Y7.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.77%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%10.67%
Revenue Next Year7.46%
Revenue Next 2Y6.07%
Revenue Next 3Y5.34%
Revenue Next 5Y4.32%
EBIT growth 1Y0.43%
EBIT growth 3Y2.56%
EBIT growth 5Y7.55%
EBIT Next Year22.18%
EBIT Next 3Y10.39%
EBIT Next 5Y7.42%
FCF growth 1Y18.88%
FCF growth 3Y-12.93%
FCF growth 5Y-5.41%
OCF growth 1Y20.16%
OCF growth 3Y-8.26%
OCF growth 5Y-2.15%
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC / KDP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for KDP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to KDP.
Can you provide the valuation status for KEURIG DR PEPPER INC?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of KDP stock?
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the valuation of KEURIG DR PEPPER INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) is 12.79 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.39.
How sustainable is the dividend of KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) stock?
The dividend rating of KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 78.89%.