KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:KDP - US49271V1008 - Common Stock
27.42 USD
+0.46 (+1.71%)
27.35 USD
-0.07 (-0.26%)
Overall KDP gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated KDP against 33 industry peers in the Beverages industry. While KDP is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. KDP is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year KDP was profitable.
KDP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years KDP has been profitable.
KDP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
KDP has a Return On Assets (2.90%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
KDP has a Return On Equity (6.25%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of KDP (5.64%) is worse than 63.64% of its industry peers.
KDP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.40%. This is significantly below the industry average of 10.84%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.40%) for KDP is below the current ROIC(5.64%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.9% | ||
| ROE | 6.25% | ||
| ROIC | 5.64% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
1.3 Margins
KDP has a better Profit Margin (9.78%) than 69.70% of its industry peers.
KDP's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 21.91%, KDP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.79% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 54.76%, KDP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.70% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of KDP has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.78% | ||
| GM | 54.76% |
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
KDP has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for KDP has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
KDP has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for KDP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.35, we must say that KDP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
KDP's Altman-Z score of 1.35 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. KDP is outperformed by 66.67% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of KDP is 10.44, which is on the high side as it means it would take KDP, 10.44 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
KDP has a Debt to FCF ratio of 10.44. This is in the lower half of the industry: KDP underperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62 indicates that KDP is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
KDP has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.62. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: KDP outperforms 45.45% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.35 |
ROIC/WACC0.81
WACC6.95%
2.3 Liquidity
KDP has a Current Ratio of 0.62. This is a bad value and indicates that KDP is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.62, KDP is doing worse than 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.36 indicates that KDP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of KDP (0.36) is worse than 87.88% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.41% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 9.49% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, KDP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 6.77% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.41%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%5.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.77%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%10.67%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, KDP will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 7.11% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, KDP will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.32% on average per year.
EPS Next Y7.53%
EPS Next 2Y6.74%
EPS Next 3Y6.71%
EPS Next 5Y7.11%
Revenue Next Year7.46%
Revenue Next 2Y6.07%
Revenue Next 3Y5.34%
Revenue Next 5Y4.32%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
KDP is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.51.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of KDP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: KDP is cheaper than 78.79% of the companies listed in the same industry.
KDP is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.51, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
KDP is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.53.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, KDP is valued a bit cheaper than 75.76% of the companies in the same industry.
KDP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 34.98.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.53 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as KDP.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of KDP is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 23.29 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.61 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)1.79
PEG (5Y)1.42
EPS Next 2Y6.74%
EPS Next 3Y6.71%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.41%, KDP has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
In the last 3 months the price of KDP has falen by -21.96%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.05, KDP pays a better dividend. On top of this KDP pays more dividend than 81.82% of the companies listed in the same industry.
KDP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.41% |
5.2 History
The dividend of KDP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.69%!
KDP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
KDP has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
78.89% of the earnings are spent on dividend by KDP. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of KDP is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP78.89%
EPS Next 2Y6.74%
EPS Next 3Y6.71%
27.42
+0.46 (+1.71%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Staples
GICS IndustryGroupFood, Beverage & Tobacco
GICS IndustryBeverages
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners95.21%
Inst Owner Change-0.93%
Ins Owners0.62%
Ins Owner Change-0.24%
Market Cap37.25B
Revenue(TTM)16.17B
Net Income(TTM)1.58B
Analysts75.65
Price Target35.1 (28.01%)
Short Float %2.79%
Short Ratio1.85
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.41% |
Yearly Dividend0.87
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.69%
DP78.89%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.3%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.38%
Max EPS beat(2)-0.22%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)2.1%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.38%
Max EPS beat(4)8.75%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)2.06%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.7%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1.05%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.69%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.85%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.36%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.69%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.08%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.1%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.43%
PT rev (1m)-2.67%
PT rev (3m)-11.2%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.38%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.15%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.02%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.25%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.22%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.29%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.14%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.1%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.53 | ||
| P/S | 2.3 | ||
| P/FCF | 23.29 | ||
| P/OCF | 17.5 | ||
| P/B | 1.47 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.61 |
EPS(TTM)2.03
EY7.4%
EPS(NY)2.19
Fwd EY7.98%
FCF(TTM)1.18
FCFY4.29%
OCF(TTM)1.57
OCFY5.71%
SpS11.91
BVpS18.64
TBVpS-13.74
PEG (NY)1.79
PEG (5Y)1.42
Graham Number29.18
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.9% | ||
| ROE | 6.25% | ||
| ROCE | 7.53% | ||
| ROIC | 5.64% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 68.39% | ||
| OM | 21.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.78% | ||
| GM | 54.76% | ||
| FCFM | 9.89% |
ROA(3y)3.22%
ROA(5y)3.31%
ROE(3y)6.72%
ROE(5y)6.86%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)5.42%
ROICexc(3y)5.46%
ROICexc(5y)5.47%
ROICexgc(3y)231.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.24%
ROCE(5y)7.17%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-33.84%
ROICexc growth 3Y0.57%
ROICexc growth 5Y6.63%
OM growth 3Y-3.77%
OM growth 5Y0.83%
PM growth 3Y-17.83%
PM growth 5Y-3.6%
GM growth 3Y0.21%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.3
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.44 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.8 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 90.89% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.27% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.29 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 51.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 101.08% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.35 |
F-Score6
WACC6.95%
ROIC/WACC0.81
Cap/Depr(3y)90.63%
Cap/Depr(5y)91.99%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.61%
Profit Quality(3y)106.96%
Profit Quality(5y)115.99%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)7.41%
EPS 3Y6.27%
EPS 5Y9.49%
EPS Q2Q%5.88%
EPS Next Y7.53%
EPS Next 2Y6.74%
EPS Next 3Y6.71%
EPS Next 5Y7.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.77%
Revenue growth 3Y6.57%
Revenue growth 5Y6.66%
Sales Q2Q%10.67%
Revenue Next Year7.46%
Revenue Next 2Y6.07%
Revenue Next 3Y5.34%
Revenue Next 5Y4.32%
EBIT growth 1Y0.43%
EBIT growth 3Y2.56%
EBIT growth 5Y7.55%
EBIT Next Year22.18%
EBIT Next 3Y10.39%
EBIT Next 5Y7.42%
FCF growth 1Y18.88%
FCF growth 3Y-12.93%
FCF growth 5Y-5.41%
OCF growth 1Y20.16%
OCF growth 3Y-8.26%
OCF growth 5Y-2.15%
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC / KDP FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for KDP stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to KDP.
Can you provide the valuation status for KEURIG DR PEPPER INC?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of KDP stock?
KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the valuation of KEURIG DR PEPPER INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) is 13.51 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.47.
How sustainable is the dividend of KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) stock?
The dividend rating of KEURIG DR PEPPER INC (KDP) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 78.89%.