HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4128221086 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 41 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. While HOG has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG has a bad growth rate and is valued cheaply. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years HOG has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of HOG (4.59%) is better than 84.62% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Return On Equity of 17.43%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 94.87% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of HOG (5.02%) is better than 76.92% of its industry peers.
HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 7.52%. This is in line with the industry average of 9.10%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.59% | ||
| ROE | 17.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.02% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.44%
ROE(3y)24.24%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)7.52%
ROIC(5y)5.94%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 10.77%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.44% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of HOG (10.60%) is better than 92.31% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
HOG has a better Gross Margin (35.83%) than 94.87% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.77% | ||
| GM | 35.83% |
OM growth 3Y57.06%
OM growth 5Y-1.11%
PM growth 3Y622.77%
PM growth 5Y5.42%
GM growth 3Y3.37%
GM growth 5Y-0.32%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.33. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of HOG (1.33) is better than 71.79% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 10.13, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 10.13 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG (10.13) is better than 87.18% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.53 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.53, HOG is not doing good in the industry: 74.36% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC7.5%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.41 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of HOG (1.41) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.25. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a Quick ratio of 1.25. This is in the better half of the industry: HOG outperforms 64.10% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.41 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.25 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -9.76%.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.42% yearly.
Looking at the last year, HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -6.30% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.41% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-9.76%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y7.42%
EPS Q2Q%-34.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.3%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y0.41%
Sales Q2Q%-32.85%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.84% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.60% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-23.42%
EPS Next 2Y-8.47%
EPS Next 3Y-1.39%
EPS Next 5Y2.84%
Revenue Next Year-15.39%
Revenue Next 2Y-7.36%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.46%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.6%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 6.04, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 92.31% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.47, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
HOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.64.
89.74% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (92.74), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.04 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.64 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 79.49% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 4.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.24 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.81
EPS Next 2Y-8.47%
EPS Next 3Y-1.39%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.50%, HOG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.80, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 87.18% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.28, HOG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.56%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.56%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 15.54% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP15.54%
EPS Next 2Y-8.47%
EPS Next 3Y-1.39%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC
NYSE:HOG (2/4/2025, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 27.1799 +0.36 (+1.34%)26.82
+0.35 (+1.32%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.78%
Inst Owner Change1.1%
Ins Owners0.9%
Ins Owner Change-2.37%
Market Cap3.41B
Analysts71.58
Price Target37.36 (39.3%)
Short Float %8.03%
Short Ratio6.3
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
Yearly Dividend0.68
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.56%
DP15.54%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)14.36%
Min EPS beat(2)13.82%
Max EPS beat(2)14.91%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)102.91%
Min EPS beat(4)12.91%
Max EPS beat(4)369.98%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)104.79%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)86.22%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)40.7%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.04%
Min Revenue beat(2)-10.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)4.08%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.98%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.1%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.3%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)10.11%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)9.55%
PT rev (1m)-4.56%
PT rev (3m)-11.48%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.85%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-73.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.1%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.14%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.27%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-17.95%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.04 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.64 | ||
| P/S | 0.62 | ||
| P/FCF | 4.44 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.49 | ||
| P/B | 1 | ||
| P/tB | 1.01 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.24 |
EPS(TTM)4.44
EY16.55%
EPS(NY)4.04
Fwd EY15.06%
FCF(TTM)6.05
FCFY22.54%
OCF(TTM)7.69
OCFY28.66%
SpS43.61
BVpS26.95
TBVpS26.45
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.81
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.59% | ||
| ROE | 17.43% | ||
| ROCE | 6.65% | ||
| ROIC | 5.02% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.61% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.67% | ||
| OM | 10.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.77% | ||
| GM | 35.83% | ||
| FCFM | 13.86% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.44%
ROE(3y)24.24%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)7.52%
ROIC(5y)5.94%
ROICexc(3y)9.21%
ROICexc(5y)7.24%
ROICexgc(3y)9.3%
ROICexgc(5y)7.31%
ROCE(3y)10.35%
ROCE(5y)8.16%
ROICexcg growth 3Y58.27%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y58.51%
ROICexc growth 5Y-3.59%
OM growth 3Y57.06%
OM growth 5Y-1.11%
PM growth 3Y622.77%
PM growth 5Y5.42%
GM growth 3Y3.37%
GM growth 5Y-0.32%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.13 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 6.95 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 126.56% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.76% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 129.82% | ||
| Profit Quality | 128.72% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.41 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.25 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.33 |
F-Score5
WACC7.5%
ROIC/WACC0.67
Cap/Depr(3y)101.27%
Cap/Depr(5y)90.48%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.01%
Profit Quality(3y)87.54%
Profit Quality(5y)16189.6%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-9.76%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y7.42%
EPS Q2Q%-34.06%
EPS Next Y-23.42%
EPS Next 2Y-8.47%
EPS Next 3Y-1.39%
EPS Next 5Y2.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.3%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y0.41%
Sales Q2Q%-32.85%
Revenue Next Year-15.39%
Revenue Next 2Y-7.36%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.46%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.6%
EBIT growth 1Y-26.74%
EBIT growth 3Y77.34%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.7%
EBIT Next Year-12.81%
EBIT Next 3Y3.67%
EBIT Next 5Y6.66%
FCF growth 1Y59.98%
FCF growth 3Y-19.43%
FCF growth 5Y-11.22%
OCF growth 1Y56.65%
OCF growth 3Y-13.78%
OCF growth 5Y-8.94%