HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
20.9 USD
+0.17 (+0.82%)
20.98 USD
+0.08 (+0.38%)
Taking everything into account, HOG scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. These ratings could make HOG a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HOG was profitable.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years HOG has always been profitable.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a Return On Assets of 4.74%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 91.67% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Return On Equity of 14.03%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of HOG (5.78%) is better than 94.44% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.86%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG has a better Profit Margin (10.74%) than 97.22% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of HOG (11.88%) is better than 97.22% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 33.26%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.92 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.92, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 13.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 13.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 13.17, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.56% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of HOG (1.07) is worse than 61.11% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC7.21%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.51 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HOG has a Current ratio of 2.51. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 94.44% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 2.36. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
With an excellent Quick ratio value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -7.21% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -15.99% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.88% on average per year.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.09% yearly.
EPS Next Y26.76%
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 5.07, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.50, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.74, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 83.33% of the companies are valued more expensively.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.93.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.74 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.22% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 97.22% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.51% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.12
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.39%, HOG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
In the last 3 months the price of HOG has falen by -28.07%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.82. HOG pays more dividend than 88.89% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.87.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.39% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 17.57% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
20.9
+0.17 (+0.82%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.74%
Inst Owner Change-3.42%
Ins Owners0.26%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.47B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts69.52
Price TargetN/A
Short Float %14.93%
Short Ratio8.24
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.39% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-5.54%
PT rev (3m)-5.9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.08%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-272.27%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.57%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.14%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.46%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.59%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.74 | ||
| P/S | 0.53 | ||
| P/FCF | 6.3 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.49 | ||
| P/B | 0.69 | ||
| P/tB | 0.7 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.14 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY19.71%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY10.27%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY15.87%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY22.28%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.12
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
F-Score8
WACC7.21%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y26.76%
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year56.41%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.68%
EBIT Next 5Y8.89%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to grow by 26.76% in the next year.