HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
20.64 USD
+0.15 (+0.73%)
20.64 USD
0 (0%)
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 35 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. These ratings could make HOG a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HOG was profitable.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years HOG has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a Return On Assets of 4.74%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 91.43% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 14.03%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Return On Invested Capital of 5.78% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 94.29% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.86%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG's Profit Margin of 10.74% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG's Operating Margin of 11.88% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
HOG's Gross Margin of 33.26% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 91.43% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.92 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
HOG has a better Altman-Z score (1.92) than 82.86% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 13.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 13.17, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.07, HOG is not doing good in the industry: 62.86% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC7.21%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.51 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HOG's Current ratio of 2.51 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 94.29% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
With an excellent Quick ratio value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -7.21% in the last year.
Measured over the past 5 years, HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.52% on average per year.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -15.99% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 11.88% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.09% yearly.
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
HOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5.01.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.60. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.59, the valuation of HOG can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.86% of the companies are valued more expensively.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.23, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.59 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 97.14% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.22 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.50% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.11
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.44%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
The stock price of HOG dropped by -27.25% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.84, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 91.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.00.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.44% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
20.64
+0.15 (+0.73%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.74%
Inst Owner Change-3.42%
Ins Owners0.26%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.44B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts69.52
Price Target28.06 (35.95%)
Short Float %16.59%
Short Ratio8.21
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.44% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-4.44%
PT rev (3m)-5.9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.39%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-272.27%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.68%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.46%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.59%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.01 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.59 | ||
| P/S | 0.52 | ||
| P/FCF | 6.22 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.43 | ||
| P/B | 0.68 | ||
| P/tB | 0.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY19.96%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY10.43%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY16.07%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY22.56%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.11
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
F-Score8
WACC7.21%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year56.41%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.68%
EBIT Next 5Y8.89%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status for HOG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.