HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:HOG • US4128221086

Current stock price

23.41 USD
+0.44 (+1.92%)
At close:
23.5 USD
+0.09 (+0.38%)
Pre-Market:

This HOG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

9

1. HOG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year HOG was profitable.
  • In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
  • HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
HOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFHOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

1.2 Ratios

  • HOG has a better Return On Assets (4.21%) than 94.29% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 10.79%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
  • HOG has a Return On Invested Capital of 6.16%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.61%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (5.40%) for HOG is below the current ROIC(6.16%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.21%
ROE 10.79%
ROIC 6.16%
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)5.24%
ROE(3y)15.63%
ROE(5y)19.58%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)6.43%
HOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICHOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

  • With an excellent Profit Margin value of 7.57%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
  • HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • HOG has a Operating Margin of 10.27%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • HOG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • With an excellent Gross Margin value of 31.64%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.43% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 10.27%
PM (TTM) 7.57%
GM 31.64%
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y24.4%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y198.3%
GM growth 3Y-5.15%
GM growth 5Y-1.34%
HOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsHOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

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7

2. HOG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
  • Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
  • HOG has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
HOG Yearly Shares OutstandingHOG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M
HOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsHOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.14 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • HOG's Altman-Z score of 2.14 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 82.86% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 7.15, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 7.15 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 7.15, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
  • HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.68. This is a neutral value indicating HOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.68. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: HOG outperforms 54.29% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.68
Debt/FCF 7.15
Altman-Z 2.14
ROIC/WACC0.69
WACC8.89%
HOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFHOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.3 Liquidity

  • HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.10. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • HOG's Current ratio of 2.10 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 82.86% of its industry peers.
  • HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.83. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.83, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.1
Quick Ratio 1.83
HOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesHOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

3

3. HOG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for HOG have decreased strongly by -21.62% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, HOG shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 215899.16% on average per year.
  • The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -13.76% in the past year. This is quite bad
  • Measured over the past years, HOG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 1.99% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.62%
EPS 3Y-19.32%
EPS 5Y215899.16%
EPS Q2Q%-162.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.76%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.06%
Revenue growth 5Y1.99%
Sales Q2Q%-9.82%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 5.27% on average over the next years.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 0.33% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-84.99%
EPS Next 2Y-23.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.59%
EPS Next 5Y5.27%
Revenue Next Year0.64%
Revenue Next 2Y2.21%
Revenue Next 3Y1.98%
Revenue Next 5Y0.33%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
HOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesHOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
HOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesHOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2 4 6 8 10

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6

4. HOG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 8.97, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 94.29% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • HOG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.91.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 59.74, HOG can be considered very expensive at the moment.
  • HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 68.57% of the companies in the same industry.
  • HOG is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.99, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.97
Fwd PE 59.74
HOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsHOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40 50

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.14% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.14% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 6.15
EV/EBITDA 3.06
HOG Per share dataHOG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -10.59% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0
EPS Next 2Y-23.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.59%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

7

5. HOG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.21%.
  • HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.72. HOG pays more dividend than 91.43% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, HOG pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.21%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of HOG grows each year by 10.40%, which is quite nice.
  • HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • HOG has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.4%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
HOG Yearly Dividends per shareHOG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • 25.50% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
  • HOG's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP25.5%
EPS Next 2Y-23.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.59%
HOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendHOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
HOG Dividend Payout.HOG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.HOG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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HOG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC

NYSE:HOG (4/28/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

Premarket: 23.5 +0.09 (+0.38%)

23.41

+0.44 (+1.92%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Industry Strength6.83
Industry Growth6.83
Earnings (Last)02-10
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners101.84%
Inst Owner Change-0.79%
Ins Owners0.26%
Ins Owner Change1.93%
Market Cap2.55B
Revenue(TTM)4.47B
Net Income(TTM)338.74M
Analysts68.57
Price Target22.57 (-3.59%)
Short Float %14.88%
Short Ratio4.42
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.21%
Yearly Dividend0.73
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.4%
DP25.5%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date03-02
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-15.74%
Min EPS beat(2)-131.73%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.27%
Min EPS beat(4)-131.73%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.33%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)34.13%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)53.37%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-22.3%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-6.34%
Min Revenue beat(4)-22.3%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.1%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-3.48%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.12%
PT rev (1m)-5.47%
PT rev (3m)-19.56%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-71.98%
EPS NY rev (1m)61.06%
EPS NY rev (3m)-81.52%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-10.78%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.27%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.97
Fwd PE 59.74
P/S 0.57
P/FCF 6.15
P/OCF 4.49
P/B 0.81
P/tB 0.83
EV/EBITDA 3.06
EPS(TTM)2.61
EY11.15%
EPS(NY)0.39
Fwd EY1.67%
FCF(TTM)3.81
FCFY16.26%
OCF(TTM)5.21
OCFY22.28%
SpS41
BVpS28.79
TBVpS28.2
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0
Graham Number41.1159 (75.63%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.21%
ROE 10.79%
ROCE 8.53%
ROIC 6.16%
ROICexc 12.98%
ROICexgc 13.28%
OM 10.27%
PM (TTM) 7.57%
GM 31.64%
FCFM 9.28%
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)5.24%
ROE(3y)15.63%
ROE(5y)19.58%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)6.43%
ROICexc(3y)8.34%
ROICexc(5y)8.95%
ROICexgc(3y)8.48%
ROICexgc(5y)9.08%
ROCE(3y)7.48%
ROCE(5y)8.92%
ROICexgc growth 3Y10.21%
ROICexgc growth 5Y47.07%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.7%
ROICexc growth 5Y46.78%
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y24.4%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y198.3%
GM growth 3Y-5.15%
GM growth 5Y-1.34%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.56
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.68
Debt/FCF 7.15
Debt/EBITDA 3.4
Cap/Depr 89.16%
Cap/Sales 3.44%
Interest Coverage 1.39
Cash Conversion 90.08%
Profit Quality 122.59%
Current Ratio 2.1
Quick Ratio 1.83
Altman-Z 2.14
F-Score8
WACC8.89%
ROIC/WACC0.69
Cap/Depr(3y)114.22%
Cap/Depr(5y)103.06%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)130.18%
Profit Quality(5y)115.13%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.62%
EPS 3Y-19.32%
EPS 5Y215899.16%
EPS Q2Q%-162.37%
EPS Next Y-84.99%
EPS Next 2Y-23.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.59%
EPS Next 5Y5.27%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.76%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.06%
Revenue growth 5Y1.99%
Sales Q2Q%-9.82%
Revenue Next Year0.64%
Revenue Next 2Y2.21%
Revenue Next 3Y1.98%
Revenue Next 5Y0.33%
EBIT growth 1Y10.23%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.35%
EBIT growth 5Y26.87%
EBIT Next Year-68.26%
EBIT Next 3Y-17.84%
EBIT Next 5Y-3.78%
FCF growth 1Y-52.12%
FCF growth 3Y1.53%
FCF growth 5Y-16.88%
OCF growth 1Y-46.52%
OCF growth 3Y1.23%
OCF growth 5Y-13.55%

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to HOG.


What is the valuation status for HOG stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 9 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?

The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for HOG stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to decline by -84.99% in the next year.