HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
24 USD
+0.56 (+2.39%)
24 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. This makes HOG very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HOG was profitable.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
HOG's Return On Assets of 4.74% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 91.67% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Return On Equity of 14.03%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of HOG (5.78%) is better than 94.44% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.83%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of HOG (10.74%) is better than 97.22% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of HOG (11.88%) is better than 97.22% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
HOG has a better Gross Margin (33.26%) than 94.44% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.96 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of HOG (1.96) is better than 80.56% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 13.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 80.56% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of HOG (1.07) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.96 |
ROIC/WACC0.76
WACC7.58%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.51 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HOG has a Current ratio of 2.51. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 94.44% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
With an excellent Quick ratio value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -15.99%.
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.30% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.41% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 5.83, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.65), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.14, the valuation of HOG can be described as reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 83.33% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 34.45. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.14 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.69 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.16% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)1.29
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.23%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.48. HOG pays more dividend than 88.89% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.41.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.23% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
24
+0.56 (+2.39%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.32%
Inst Owner Change-3.42%
Ins Owners0.25%
Ins Owner Change0.05%
Market Cap2.92B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts70
Price Target29.37 (22.38%)
Short Float %10.29%
Short Ratio7.23
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.23% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-1.52%
PT rev (3m)-0.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-286.13%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-294.94%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.54%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-14.24%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.72%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.61%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.14 | ||
| P/S | 0.63 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.44 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.3 | ||
| P/B | 0.82 | ||
| P/tB | 0.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.69 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY17.17%
EPS(NY)2.63
Fwd EY10.94%
FCF(TTM)3.22
FCFY13.43%
OCF(TTM)4.53
OCFY18.86%
SpS38.38
BVpS29.39
TBVpS28.87
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)1.29
Graham Number52.2
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.96 |
F-Score8
WACC7.58%
ROIC/WACC0.76
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year47.42%
EBIT Next 3Y3.96%
EBIT Next 5Y9.11%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to grow by 24.8% in the next year.