HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
19.88 USD
-0.09 (-0.45%)
20.04 USD
+0.16 (+0.8%)
Taking everything into account, HOG scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. HOG was compared to 35 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. These ratings would make HOG suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year HOG was profitable.
- HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
- HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- HOG's Return On Assets of 4.74% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 94.29% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a better Return On Equity (14.03%) than 97.14% of its industry peers.
- With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 5.78%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
- HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.41%. This is in line with the industry average of 5.56%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
- HOG has a Profit Margin of 10.74%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- The Operating Margin of HOG (11.88%) is better than 97.14% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 33.26%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 91.43% of the companies in the same industry.
- HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
- Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
- The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.91. This is not the best score and indicates that HOG is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- HOG's Altman-Z score of 1.91 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 85.71% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 13.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 13.17, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.86% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
- HOG's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HOG is outperformed by 62.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.91 |
ROIC/WACC0.81
WACC7.14%
2.3 Liquidity
- HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.51. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
- HOG has a better Current ratio (2.51) than 88.57% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a Quick Ratio of 2.36. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.29% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
- The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
- The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -15.99% in the past year. This is quite bad
- HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
- HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.92% yearly.
- The Revenue is expected to decrease by -1.07% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-20.2%
EPS Next 3Y-4.79%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue Next Year-11.78%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.17%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.25%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 4.83, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- HOG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 28.60.
- HOG is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.37.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 85.71% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 25.83, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.37 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 94.29% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.14% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.99 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.01 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
- HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.79% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)1.07
EPS Next 2Y-20.2%
EPS Next 3Y-4.79%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.46%.
- The stock price of HOG dropped by -26.32% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.84, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 91.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, HOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.46% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
- HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
- HOG pays out 17.57% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-20.2%
EPS Next 3Y-4.79%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status for HOG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.