HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
20.49 USD
-0.58 (-2.75%)
20.5486 USD
+0.06 (+0.29%)
Taking everything into account, HOG scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. This makes HOG very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
- HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
- HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- HOG has a Return On Assets of 4.74%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 94.44% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a better Return On Equity (14.03%) than 97.22% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.78%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
- The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.56%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
- HOG has a better Profit Margin (10.74%) than 97.22% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- HOG's Operating Margin of 11.88% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- HOG has a Gross Margin of 33.26%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 91.67% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
- HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- An Altman-Z score of 1.92 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- HOG's Altman-Z score of 1.92 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 86.11% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 13.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- HOG has a better Debt to FCF ratio (13.17) than 83.33% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
- HOG's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HOG is outperformed by 61.11% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC7.21%
2.3 Liquidity
- HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.51. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
- The Current ratio of HOG (2.51) is better than 91.67% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
- The Quick ratio of HOG (2.36) is better than 97.22% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
- HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
- The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -15.99% in the past year. This is quite bad
- The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
- HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.92% yearly.
- Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.07% on average per year.
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- The Price/Earnings ratio is 4.97, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.38), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
- The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.52, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
- HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
- When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.29), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.97 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.52 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 97.22% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 97.22% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
- HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.50% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)1.1
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.42%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
- In the last 3 months the price of HOG has falen by -23.37%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
- HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.81. HOG pays more dividend than 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.85, HOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.42% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
- HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
- HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
- 17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
20.49
-0.58 (-2.75%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)11-04 2025-11-04/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-03 2026-02-03/amc
Inst Owners94.63%
Inst Owner Change0.98%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.42B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts69.52
Price Target28.06 (36.94%)
Short Float %16.59%
Short Ratio8.21
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.42% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-282.26%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.1%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-13.84%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.48%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.97 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.52 | ||
| P/S | 0.52 | ||
| P/FCF | 6.18 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.4 | ||
| P/B | 0.68 | ||
| P/tB | 0.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY20.11%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY10.51%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY16.19%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY22.72%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)1.1
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
F-Score8
WACC7.21%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year56.41%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.68%
EBIT Next 5Y8.91%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status for HOG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.