HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG)
US4128221086 - Common Stock
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 42 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. These ratings would make HOG suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
HOG's Return On Assets of 4.59% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
HOG's Return On Equity of 17.43% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 88.10% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of HOG (5.02%) is better than 78.57% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is below the industry average of 9.90%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.59% | ||
| ROE | 17.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.02% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.44%
ROE(3y)24.24%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)7.52%
ROIC(5y)5.94%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 10.77%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.24% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG has a Operating Margin of 10.60%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 88.10% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
HOG has a Gross Margin of 35.83%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 92.86% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 10.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.77% | ||
| GM | 35.83% |
OM growth 3Y57.06%
OM growth 5Y-1.11%
PM growth 3Y622.77%
PM growth 5Y5.42%
GM growth 3Y3.37%
GM growth 5Y-0.32%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.37, we must say that HOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG's Altman-Z score of 1.37 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 73.81% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 10.13. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 10.13 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 10.13 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 85.71% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.53. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HOG's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.53 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HOG is outperformed by 78.57% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.37 |
ROIC/WACC0.63
WACC7.92%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.41. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a Current ratio of 1.41. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: HOG outperforms 50.00% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.25. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a Quick ratio of 1.25. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: HOG outperforms 59.52% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.41 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.25 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -9.76%.
Measured over the past 5 years, HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.42% on average per year.
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -6.30%.
HOG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 0.41% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-9.76%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y7.42%
EPS Q2Q%-34.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.3%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y0.41%
Sales Q2Q%-32.48%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 2.84% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.60% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-23.5%
EPS Next 2Y-7.55%
EPS Next 3Y0.42%
EPS Next 5Y2.84%
Revenue Next Year-15.39%
Revenue Next 2Y-7.37%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.48%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.6%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 6.93, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 90.48% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.55. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.47 indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
90.48% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 24.00, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.93 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.47 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 76.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.62% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.09 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.91 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.93
EPS Next 2Y-7.55%
EPS Next 3Y0.42%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.29%, HOG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
In the last 3 months the price of HOG has falen by -21.79%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.04, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 88.10% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, HOG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.29% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.56%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.56%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 15.54% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP15.54%
EPS Next 2Y-7.55%
EPS Next 3Y0.42%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC
NYSE:HOG (12/26/2024, 8:20:10 PM)
After market: 30.79 0 (0%)30.79
-0.04 (-0.13%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.78%
Inst Owner Change2.15%
Ins Owners0.9%
Ins Owner Change-2.37%
Market Cap3.92B
Analysts71.58
Price Target39.14 (27.12%)
Short Float %7.68%
Short Ratio6.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.29% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.56%
DP15.54%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)14.36%
Min EPS beat(2)13.82%
Max EPS beat(2)14.91%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)102.91%
Min EPS beat(4)12.91%
Max EPS beat(4)369.98%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)104.79%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)86.22%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)40.7%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.79%
Min Revenue beat(2)-9.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)4.08%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.86%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.1%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.36%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)10.15%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)9.58%
PT rev (1m)-7.25%
PT rev (3m)-11.01%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-940.28%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.12%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.87%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-37.01%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-7.5%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.93 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.47 | ||
| P/S | 0.71 | ||
| P/FCF | 5.09 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.01 | ||
| P/B | 1.14 | ||
| P/tB | 1.16 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.91 |
EPS(TTM)4.44
EY14.42%
EPS(NY)4.12
Fwd EY13.38%
FCF(TTM)6.05
FCFY19.64%
OCF(TTM)7.69
OCFY24.96%
SpS43.61
BVpS26.95
TBVpS26.45
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.93
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.59% | ||
| ROE | 17.43% | ||
| ROCE | 6.65% | ||
| ROIC | 5.02% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.61% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.67% | ||
| OM | 10.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.77% | ||
| GM | 35.83% | ||
| FCFM | 13.86% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.44%
ROE(3y)24.24%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)7.52%
ROIC(5y)5.94%
ROICexc(3y)9.21%
ROICexc(5y)7.24%
ROICexgc(3y)9.3%
ROICexgc(5y)7.31%
ROCE(3y)10.35%
ROCE(5y)8.16%
ROICexcg growth 3Y58.27%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.59%
ROICexc growth 3Y58.51%
ROICexc growth 5Y-3.59%
OM growth 3Y57.06%
OM growth 5Y-1.11%
PM growth 3Y622.77%
PM growth 5Y5.42%
GM growth 3Y3.37%
GM growth 5Y-0.32%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.13 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 6.95 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 126.56% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.76% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 129.82% | ||
| Profit Quality | 128.72% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.41 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.25 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.37 |
F-Score5
WACC7.92%
ROIC/WACC0.63
Cap/Depr(3y)101.27%
Cap/Depr(5y)90.48%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.81%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.01%
Profit Quality(3y)87.54%
Profit Quality(5y)16189.6%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-9.76%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y7.42%
EPS Q2Q%-34.06%
EPS Next Y-23.5%
EPS Next 2Y-7.55%
EPS Next 3Y0.42%
EPS Next 5Y2.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.3%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y0.41%
Sales Q2Q%-32.48%
Revenue Next Year-15.39%
Revenue Next 2Y-7.37%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.48%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.6%
EBIT growth 1Y-26.74%
EBIT growth 3Y77.34%
EBIT growth 5Y-0.7%
EBIT Next Year-13%
EBIT Next 3Y4.16%
EBIT Next 5Y6.66%
FCF growth 1Y59.98%
FCF growth 3Y-19.43%
FCF growth 5Y-11.22%
OCF growth 1Y56.65%
OCF growth 3Y-13.78%
OCF growth 5Y-8.94%