HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
25.59 USD
+0.45 (+1.79%)
25.59 USD
0 (0%)
Overall HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated HOG against 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG has a bad growth rate and is valued cheaply. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of HOG (2.02%) is better than 83.33% of its industry peers.
HOG's Return On Equity of 7.32% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 88.89% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of HOG (1.75%) is better than 77.78% of its industry peers.
HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.41%. This is in line with the industry average of 5.40%.
The 3 year average ROIC (6.41%) for HOG is well above the current ROIC(1.75%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG's Profit Margin of 5.43% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 88.89% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG has a Operating Margin of 4.14%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
HOG's Gross Margin of 34.04% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 94.44% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.19, we must say that HOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of HOG (1.19) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.35. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 8.35 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 8.35 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 80.56% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.47. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.47, HOG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.67% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.19 |
ROIC/WACC0.23
WACC7.75%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.37. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a better Current ratio (1.37) than 63.89% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.20 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
HOG has a Quick ratio of 1.20. This is in the better half of the industry: HOG outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -7.21% in the last year.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -11.13%.
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.13%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%23.18%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.30% yearly.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.41% yearly.
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 6.21, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.83), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.74, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 83.33% of the companies are valued more expensively.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 32.68, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.74 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 77.78% of the companies in the same industry.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.79 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 22.48 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.16% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)0.25
PEG (5Y)1.38
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.86%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.34, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 86.11% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.39, HOG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
36.50% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP36.5%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
25.59
+0.45 (+1.79%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.32%
Inst Owner Change-0.33%
Ins Owners0.25%
Ins Owner Change1.79%
Market Cap3.11B
Revenue(TTM)5.19B
Net Income(TTM)242.82M
Analysts70
Price Target29.71 (16.1%)
Short Float %10.17%
Short Ratio7.69
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP36.5%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.2%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.25%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.94%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)70.97%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)66.85%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.44%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.74%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.99%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.59%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.52%
PT rev (1m)-0.38%
PT rev (3m)1.16%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.48%
EPS NQ rev (3m)46.34%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.2%
EPS NY rev (3m)63.29%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.59%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.4%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.27%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.66%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.74 | ||
| P/S | 0.7 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.79 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.12 | ||
| P/B | 0.94 | ||
| P/tB | 0.96 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 22.48 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY16.1%
EPS(NY)2.63
Fwd EY10.26%
FCF(TTM)6.76
FCFY26.41%
OCF(TTM)8.19
OCFY32.01%
SpS36.81
BVpS27.29
TBVpS26.76
PEG (NY)0.25
PEG (5Y)1.38
Graham Number50.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROCE | 2.24% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.14% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.16% | ||
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% | ||
| FCFM | 18.36% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.37
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 107.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 286.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 338.27% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.19 |
F-Score5
WACC7.75%
ROIC/WACC0.23
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.13%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%23.18%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-73.22%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year47.42%
EBIT Next 3Y3.96%
EBIT Next 5Y9.11%
FCF growth 1Y54.51%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y39.3%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 5 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to grow by 24.8% in the next year.