HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
23.36 USD
-0.37 (-1.56%)
23.36 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, HOG scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making HOG a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. These ratings could make HOG a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HOG was profitable.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a better Return On Assets (4.74%) than 91.67% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 14.03%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.78%) than 94.44% of its industry peers.
HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.41%. This is in line with the industry average of 5.83%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG's Profit Margin of 10.74% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG has a better Operating Margin (11.88%) than 97.22% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 33.26%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.44% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
HOG has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.95. This is not the best score and indicates that HOG is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
HOG has a better Altman-Z score (1.95) than 80.56% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 13.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 13.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 13.17, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.56% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: HOG outperforms 47.22% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.95 |
ROIC/WACC0.77
WACC7.47%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.51 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HOG has a better Current ratio (2.51) than 94.44% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HOG has a Quick ratio of 2.36. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -7.21% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -15.99% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 11.88% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.09% on average per year.
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 5.67, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.46, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
HOG is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.90.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 36.10, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.67 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.9 |
4.2 Price Multiples
91.67% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
HOG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.63 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.16% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)1.26
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.95%.
The stock price of HOG dropped by -22.65% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.32. HOG pays more dividend than 86.11% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.32, HOG pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 17.57% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
23.36
-0.37 (-1.56%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.32%
Inst Owner Change-3.42%
Ins Owners0.25%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.76B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts70
Price Target29.37 (25.73%)
Short Float %14.37%
Short Ratio9.2
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-1.52%
PT rev (3m)-0.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-305.37%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-271.6%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.54%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-14.24%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.44%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.61%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.67 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.9 | ||
| P/S | 0.59 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.04 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.02 | ||
| P/B | 0.77 | ||
| P/tB | 0.79 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.63 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY17.64%
EPS(NY)2.63
Fwd EY11.24%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY14.2%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY19.93%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)1.26
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.95 |
F-Score8
WACC7.47%
ROIC/WACC0.77
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year47.42%
EBIT Next 3Y3.96%
EBIT Next 5Y8.89%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to grow by 24.8% in the next year.