HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
20.3 USD
-0.48 (-2.31%)
20.3 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. This makes HOG very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
- HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- In the past 5 years HOG has always been profitable.
- In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
- HOG's Return On Assets of 4.74% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 94.44% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Return On Equity of 14.03% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.78%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
- The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.56%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
- The Profit Margin of HOG (10.74%) is better than 97.22% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- HOG has a better Operating Margin (11.88%) than 97.22% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- The Gross Margin of HOG (33.26%) is better than 91.67% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
- HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.92. This is not the best score and indicates that HOG is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 1.92, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.11% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 13.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 13.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.07, HOG is doing worse than 61.11% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC7.19%
2.3 Liquidity
- HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.51. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.51, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
- The Quick ratio of HOG (2.36) is better than 97.22% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
- HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
- The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -15.99% in the past year. This is quite bad
- The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
- HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.92% yearly.
- Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.07% on average per year.
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 4.93 indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
- 100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- HOG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.21.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.43 indicates a reasonable valuation of HOG.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
- HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 24.26, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.93 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.43 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
- HOG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.12 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
- A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.50% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)1.09
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.42%, HOG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
- In the last 3 months the price of HOG has falen by -28.04%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.81, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 91.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.42% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
- HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
- 17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status for HOG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.