HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
20.49 USD
-0.58 (-2.75%)
20.5486 USD
+0.06 (+0.29%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 35 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. These ratings would make HOG suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
- In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
- HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
- HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 4.74%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.29% of the companies in the same industry.
- HOG's Return On Equity of 14.03% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
- With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 5.78%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.56%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
- The Profit Margin of HOG (10.74%) is better than 97.14% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
- With an excellent Operating Margin value of 11.88%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
- HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
- HOG has a better Gross Margin (33.26%) than 91.43% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
- HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.92. This is not the best score and indicates that HOG is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- HOG has a better Altman-Z score (1.92) than 85.71% of its industry peers.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 13.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 13.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 82.86% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
- Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.07, HOG is doing worse than 62.86% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC7.21%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 2.51 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.51, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 91.43% of the companies in the same industry.
- A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
- HOG has a Quick ratio of 2.36. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
- HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
- HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -15.99%.
- Measured over the past years, HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.92% on average per year.
- HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.07% yearly.
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- HOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 4.97.
- HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.47. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.52 indicates a reasonable valuation of HOG.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 82.86% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 24.26, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.97 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.52 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
- 97.14% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.19 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
- HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.50% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)1.1
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.40%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
- In the last 3 months the price of HOG has falen by -23.37%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.92, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 91.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.89.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
- HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
- HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
- 17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
20.49
-0.58 (-2.75%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)11-04 2025-11-04/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-03 2026-02-03/amc
Inst Owners94.63%
Inst Owner Change0.97%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.42B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts69.52
Price Target28.06 (36.94%)
Short Float %16.59%
Short Ratio8.21
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-299.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.1%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.48%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.97 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.52 | ||
| P/S | 0.52 | ||
| P/FCF | 6.18 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.4 | ||
| P/B | 0.68 | ||
| P/tB | 0.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.19 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY20.11%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY10.51%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY16.19%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY22.72%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)1.1
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
F-Score8
WACC7.21%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year56.41%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.68%
EBIT Next 5Y8.91%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status for HOG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.