HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
20.9 USD
-0.35 (-1.65%)
20.9 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 4.74%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 14.03%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.78%) than 94.44% of its industry peers.
HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.41%. This is in line with the industry average of 5.86%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 10.74%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG has a Operating Margin of 11.88%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of HOG (33.26%) is better than 91.67% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.93. This is not the best score and indicates that HOG is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
HOG's Altman-Z score of 1.93 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 13.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 80.56% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HOG's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HOG is outperformed by 61.11% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC7.23%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.51. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a Current ratio of 2.51. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 94.44% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
With an excellent Quick ratio value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
Measured over the past 5 years, HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.52% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -15.99% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.88% yearly.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.09% yearly.
EPS Next Y26.76%
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 5.07, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.61. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.74, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 83.33% of the companies listed in the same industry.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 24.01.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.74 |
4.2 Price Multiples
97.22% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.22 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.51% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.12
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.39%.
In the last 3 months the price of HOG has falen by -27.48%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.82. HOG pays more dividend than 88.89% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.87, HOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.39% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
20.9
-0.35 (-1.65%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.74%
Inst Owner Change-3.42%
Ins Owners0.26%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.47B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts69.52
Price Target28.06 (34.26%)
Short Float %14.93%
Short Ratio8.24
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.39% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-5.54%
PT rev (3m)-5.9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.08%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-272.27%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.57%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.14%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.46%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.59%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.74 | ||
| P/S | 0.53 | ||
| P/FCF | 6.3 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.49 | ||
| P/B | 0.69 | ||
| P/tB | 0.7 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.22 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY19.71%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY10.27%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY15.87%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY22.28%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.12
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
F-Score8
WACC7.23%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y26.76%
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year56.41%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.68%
EBIT Next 5Y8.89%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to grow by 26.76% in the next year.