HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG)
US4128221086 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 41 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG has a bad growth rate and is valued cheaply. These ratings would make HOG suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
HOG's Return On Assets of 5.31% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 82.93% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Equity (19.71%) than 87.80% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 5.82%, HOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.61% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is below the industry average of 10.91%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 19.71% | ||
| ROIC | 5.82% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.44%
ROE(3y)24.24%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)7.52%
ROIC(5y)5.94%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of HOG (11.39%) is better than 95.12% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG's Operating Margin of 11.63% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 90.24% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
HOG has a Gross Margin of 35.68%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 92.68% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.63% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 35.68% |
OM growth 3Y57.06%
OM growth 5Y-1.11%
PM growth 3Y622.77%
PM growth 5Y5.42%
GM growth 3Y3.37%
GM growth 5Y-0.32%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.53, we must say that HOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.53, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.73% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 10.47. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 10.47 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 10.47, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 87.80% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.58 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
HOG has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.58) than 78.05% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.58 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.47 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
ROIC/WACC0.71
WACC8.25%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.50. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of HOG (1.50) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.32. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.32, HOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.29% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -7.71% in the last year.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.42% yearly.
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -1.23%.
HOG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 0.41% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.71%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y7.42%
EPS Q2Q%33.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.23%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y0.41%
Sales Q2Q%11.85%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.54% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.96% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-11.2%
EPS Next 2Y-1.33%
EPS Next 3Y2.73%
EPS Next 5Y2.54%
Revenue Next Year-8.47%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.06%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.18%
Revenue Next 5Y1.96%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 7.43, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 87.80% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 29.62, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.77, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 87.80% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.22. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.77 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 73.17% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 97.56% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.88 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.83 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1
EPS Next 2Y-1.33%
EPS Next 3Y2.73%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.84%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.34, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 87.80% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.24, HOG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.84% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.56%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.56%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 14.09% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP14.09%
EPS Next 2Y-1.33%
EPS Next 3Y2.73%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC
NYSE:HOG (9/6/2024, 8:19:32 PM)
After market: 36.63 +0.16 (+0.44%)36.47
-0.96 (-2.56%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap4.91B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.84% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
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EPS beat(4)
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EPS beat(8)
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EPS beat(12)
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EPS beat(16)
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Revenue beat(2)
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Revenue beat(4)
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Revenue beat(8)
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Revenue beat(12)
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Revenue beat(16)
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PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.77 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 19.71% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 11.63% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 35.68% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.58 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.71%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y-11.2%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.23%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y