HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
23.89 USD
-0.82 (-3.32%)
23.89 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. These ratings could make HOG a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 4.74%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Return On Equity of 14.03% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.78%) than 94.44% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.83%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 10.74%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG has a better Operating Margin (11.88%) than 97.22% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 33.26%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.44% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
HOG has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.97. This is not the best score and indicates that HOG is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
HOG's Altman-Z score of 1.97 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 77.78% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 13.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 13.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 80.56% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio (1.07) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.97 |
ROIC/WACC0.76
WACC7.6%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.51. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a better Current ratio (2.51) than 94.44% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
Looking at the last year, HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -15.99% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 11.30% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.41% yearly.
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 5.80, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.89, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.10, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
83.33% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 34.59, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.1 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 88.89% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.41 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.16% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)1.28
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.90%, HOG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.32, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 86.11% of the companies listed in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 17.57% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
23.89
-0.82 (-3.32%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.32%
Inst Owner Change-3.4%
Ins Owners0.25%
Ins Owner Change0.08%
Market Cap2.90B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts70
Price Target29.71 (24.36%)
Short Float %10.17%
Short Ratio7.69
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-0.38%
PT rev (3m)0.77%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-181.89%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-185.77%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.8%
EPS NY rev (3m)59.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-7.47%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-9.06%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.27%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.66%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.1 | ||
| P/S | 0.62 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.41 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.28 | ||
| P/B | 0.81 | ||
| P/tB | 0.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY17.25%
EPS(NY)2.63
Fwd EY10.99%
FCF(TTM)3.22
FCFY13.49%
OCF(TTM)4.53
OCFY18.94%
SpS38.38
BVpS29.39
TBVpS28.87
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)1.28
Graham Number52.2
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.97 |
F-Score8
WACC7.6%
ROIC/WACC0.76
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year47.42%
EBIT Next 3Y3.96%
EBIT Next 5Y9.11%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to grow by 24.8% in the next year.