HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
29.88 USD
-0.01 (-0.03%)
29.8 USD
-0.08 (-0.27%)
Taking everything into account, HOG scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. HOG was compared to 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
HOG's Return On Assets of 2.02% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 81.08% of its industry peers.
HOG's Return On Equity of 7.32% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 86.49% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Return On Invested Capital of 1.75%. This is in the better half of the industry: HOG outperforms 78.38% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.63%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (1.75%) for HOG is well below the 3 year average (6.41%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that HOG had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG has a Profit Margin of 5.43%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 89.19% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG's Operating Margin of 4.14% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 83.78% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 34.04%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.23. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.23, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.86% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 8.35, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 8.35 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 8.35 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 86.49% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.47. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.47, HOG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 40.54% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.23 |
ROIC/WACC0.22
WACC8.13%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.37 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of HOG (1.37) is better than 64.86% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.20, HOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.38% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased strongly by -60.69% in the last year.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
Looking at the last year, HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -24.81% in the last year.
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.30% on average per year.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.41% yearly.
EPS Next Y22.9%
EPS Next 2Y-9.67%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue Next Year-11.21%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.85%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.59%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
HOG is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 15.48.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.19% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.27. HOG is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.00, the valuation of HOG can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.08% of the companies are valued more expensively.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.77, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 4.42 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 24.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.68
PEG (5Y)3.43
EPS Next 2Y-9.67%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.35%.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.27. HOG pays more dividend than 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, HOG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.35% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
36.50% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP36.5%
EPS Next 2Y-9.67%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
29.88
-0.01 (-0.03%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.9%
Inst Owner Change-5.17%
Ins Owners0.96%
Ins Owner Change1.6%
Market Cap3.63B
Analysts71
Price Target29.82 (-0.2%)
Short Float %8.68%
Short Ratio5.24
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.35% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP36.5%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.2%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.25%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.94%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)70.97%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)66.85%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.44%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.74%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.99%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.59%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.52%
PT rev (1m)1.15%
PT rev (3m)1.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.14%
EPS NQ rev (3m)79.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)57.07%
EPS NY rev (3m)59.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.87%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.29%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.73%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11 | ||
| P/S | 0.81 | ||
| P/FCF | 4.42 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.65 | ||
| P/B | 1.09 | ||
| P/tB | 1.12 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 24.14 |
EPS(TTM)1.93
EY6.46%
EPS(NY)2.72
Fwd EY9.09%
FCF(TTM)6.76
FCFY22.62%
OCF(TTM)8.19
OCFY27.41%
SpS36.81
BVpS27.29
TBVpS26.76
PEG (NY)0.68
PEG (5Y)3.43
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROCE | 2.24% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.14% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.16% | ||
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% | ||
| FCFM | 18.36% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.37
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 107.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 286.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 338.27% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.23 |
F-Score5
WACC8.13%
ROIC/WACC0.22
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
EPS Next Y22.9%
EPS Next 2Y-9.67%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
Revenue Next Year-11.21%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.85%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.59%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-73.22%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year-1.58%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.05%
EBIT Next 5Y9.11%
FCF growth 1Y54.51%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y39.3%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%