HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
21.37 USD
-0.22 (-1.02%)
21.42 USD
+0.05 (+0.23%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making HOG a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. This makes HOG very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 4.74%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Return On Equity of 14.03% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.78%) than 94.44% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.86%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG has a Profit Margin of 10.74%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG has a Operating Margin of 11.88%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
HOG's Gross Margin of 33.26% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 91.67% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.93. This is not the best score and indicates that HOG is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.93, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.56% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 13.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 13.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 80.56% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.07, HOG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.67% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
ROIC/WACC0.79
WACC7.29%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.51. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.51, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.44% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -15.99% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.88% yearly.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.09% yearly.
EPS Next Y26.76%
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 5.19, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.55.
HOG is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.96.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.78), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.96 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 97.22% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.28 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.51% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.15
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.22%.
In the last 3 months the price of HOG has falen by -24.54%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.81. HOG pays more dividend than 88.89% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.87, HOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.22% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
21.37
-0.22 (-1.02%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.74%
Inst Owner Change-3.42%
Ins Owners0.26%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.52B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts69.52
Price Target28.06 (31.31%)
Short Float %14.37%
Short Ratio9.2
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.22% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-5.54%
PT rev (3m)-5.9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-122.57%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-272.27%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.57%
EPS NY rev (3m)3.14%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-6.89%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.59%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.96 | ||
| P/S | 0.54 | ||
| P/FCF | 6.44 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.59 | ||
| P/B | 0.71 | ||
| P/tB | 0.72 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.28 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY19.28%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY10.04%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY15.52%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY21.79%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.15
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
F-Score8
WACC7.29%
ROIC/WACC0.79
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y26.76%
EPS Next 2Y-19.71%
EPS Next 3Y-4.51%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year56.41%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.68%
EBIT Next 5Y8.89%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to grow by 26.76% in the next year.