HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
20.02 USD
-0.28 (-1.38%)
20.17 USD
+0.15 (+0.75%)
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 35 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
- HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
- HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- HOG has a Return On Assets of 4.74%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 94.29% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a better Return On Equity (14.03%) than 97.14% of its industry peers.
- The Return On Invested Capital of HOG (5.78%) is better than 97.14% of its industry peers.
- The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.56%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
- HOG has a Profit Margin of 10.74%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- With an excellent Operating Margin value of 11.88%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
- HOG has a better Gross Margin (33.26%) than 91.43% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
- HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- An Altman-Z score of 1.91 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- The Altman-Z score of HOG (1.91) is better than 85.71% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 13.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 82.86% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
- HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07. This is in the lower half of the industry: HOG underperforms 62.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.91 |
ROIC/WACC0.81
WACC7.16%
2.3 Liquidity
- HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.51. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
- HOG's Current ratio of 2.51 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 88.57% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
- With an excellent Quick ratio value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.29% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
- The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
- HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -15.99%.
- The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
- HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.92% yearly.
- HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.07% yearly.
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-20.2%
EPS Next 3Y-4.79%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue Next Year-11.78%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.17%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.25%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 4.86 indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
- 100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.25, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.44 indicates a reasonable valuation of HOG.
- 85.71% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 25.98, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.86 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.44 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 94.29% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- 97.14% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.04 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.02 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
- A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.79% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)1.08
EPS Next 2Y-20.2%
EPS Next 3Y-4.79%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.46%.
- The stock price of HOG dropped by -25.80% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
- HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.84. HOG pays more dividend than 91.43% of the companies in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, HOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.46% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
- HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
- 17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-20.2%
EPS Next 3Y-4.79%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status for HOG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.