HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
26.74 USD
-0.06 (-0.22%)
26.74 USD
0 (0%)
Overall HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated HOG against 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. While HOG belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. These ratings would make HOG suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a better Return On Assets (2.02%) than 81.08% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 7.32%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (1.75%) than 78.38% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.68%.
The 3 year average ROIC (6.41%) for HOG is well above the current ROIC(1.75%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG has a better Profit Margin (5.43%) than 89.19% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG's Operating Margin of 4.14% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 83.78% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 34.04%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.21. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG has a better Altman-Z score (1.21) than 62.16% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.35. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 8.35 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 8.35, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.78% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.47. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of HOG (1.47) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
ROIC/WACC0.22
WACC7.83%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.37. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a Current ratio of 1.37. This is in the better half of the industry: HOG outperforms 64.86% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG's Quick ratio of 1.20 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 78.38% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased strongly by -60.69% in the last year.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
Looking at the last year, HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -24.81% in the last year.
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.30% on average per year.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.41% yearly.
EPS Next Y23.81%
EPS Next 2Y-10.36%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue Next Year-11.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.02%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.77%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
HOG is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.85.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 89.19% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.40. HOG is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.99 indicates a reasonable valuation of HOG.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 81.08% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.94), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.99 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued a bit cheaper than 78.38% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.96 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 23.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.58
PEG (5Y)3.07
EPS Next 2Y-10.36%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.72%, HOG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.56. HOG pays more dividend than 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, HOG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.72% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
36.50% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP36.5%
EPS Next 2Y-10.36%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
26.74
-0.06 (-0.22%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.32%
Inst Owner Change-0.02%
Ins Owners0.25%
Ins Owner Change1.79%
Market Cap3.25B
Analysts71
Price Target29.82 (11.52%)
Short Float %8.83%
Short Ratio4.97
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.72% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP36.5%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.2%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.25%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.94%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)70.97%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)66.85%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.44%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.74%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.99%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.59%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.52%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0.35%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.43%
EPS NQ rev (3m)73.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.74%
EPS NY rev (3m)58.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.59%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.11%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.42%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.85 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.99 | ||
| P/S | 0.73 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.96 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.26 | ||
| P/B | 0.98 | ||
| P/tB | 1 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 23.06 |
EPS(TTM)1.93
EY7.22%
EPS(NY)2.68
Fwd EY10.01%
FCF(TTM)6.76
FCFY25.27%
OCF(TTM)8.19
OCFY30.63%
SpS36.81
BVpS27.29
TBVpS26.76
PEG (NY)0.58
PEG (5Y)3.07
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROCE | 2.24% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.14% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.16% | ||
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% | ||
| FCFM | 18.36% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.37
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 107.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 286.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 338.27% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
F-Score5
WACC7.83%
ROIC/WACC0.22
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
EPS Next Y23.81%
EPS Next 2Y-10.36%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
Revenue Next Year-11.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.02%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.77%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-73.22%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year47.42%
EBIT Next 3Y3.96%
EBIT Next 5Y9.11%
FCF growth 1Y54.51%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y39.3%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%