HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
19.91 USD
-0.11 (-0.55%)
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 35 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
- In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
- HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
- Each year in the past 5 years HOG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- HOG has a Return On Assets of 4.74%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 94.29% of its industry peers.
- The Return On Equity of HOG (14.03%) is better than 97.14% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.78%) than 97.14% of its industry peers.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.56%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
- HOG's Profit Margin of 10.74% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
- HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- HOG has a better Operating Margin (11.88%) than 97.14% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
- HOG has a Gross Margin of 33.26%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 91.43% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
- HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
- The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
- HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.91. This is not the best score and indicates that HOG is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 1.91, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
- HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 13.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 82.86% of its industry peers.
- HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- HOG's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HOG is outperformed by 62.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.91 |
ROIC/WACC0.81
WACC7.16%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 2.51 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
- With an excellent Current ratio value of 2.51, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 88.57% of the companies in the same industry.
- HOG has a Quick Ratio of 2.36. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
- Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.29% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -7.21% in the last year.
- The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
- Looking at the last year, HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -15.99% in the last year.
- HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.92% on average per year.
- The Revenue is expected to decrease by -1.07% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-20.2%
EPS Next 3Y-4.79%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue Next Year-11.78%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.17%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.25%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- HOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 4.83.
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- HOG's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.25.
- With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.39, the valuation of HOG can be described as very reasonable.
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 85.71% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.98), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.39 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 94.29% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.14% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.02 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
- The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
- A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.79% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.18
PEG (5Y)1.07
EPS Next 2Y-20.2%
EPS Next 3Y-4.79%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.46%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
- In the last 3 months the price of HOG has falen by -25.80%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.84, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 91.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.46% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
- HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
- 17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-20.2%
EPS Next 3Y-4.79%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status for HOG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.