HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG)
US4128221086 - Common Stock
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 41 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. While HOG has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HOG was profitable.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 5.31%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.37% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a better Return On Equity (19.71%) than 90.24% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 5.82%, HOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.05% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is below the industry average of 10.20%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 19.71% | ||
| ROIC | 5.82% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.44%
ROE(3y)24.24%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)7.52%
ROIC(5y)5.94%
1.3 Margins
HOG has a Profit Margin of 11.39%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 95.12% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG has a Operating Margin of 11.63%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 92.68% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 35.68%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 92.68% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.63% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 35.68% |
OM growth 3Y57.06%
OM growth 5Y-1.11%
PM growth 3Y622.77%
PM growth 5Y5.42%
GM growth 3Y3.37%
GM growth 5Y-0.32%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.48, we must say that HOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.48, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.29% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 10.47. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 10.47 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 10.47, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 87.80% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.58. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.58, HOG is doing worse than 80.49% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.58 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.47 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.48 |
ROIC/WACC0.72
WACC8.05%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.50. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.50, HOG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 51.22% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.32. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a better Quick ratio (1.32) than 68.29% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -9.76% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.42% on average over the past years.
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -6.30%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.41% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-9.76%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y7.42%
EPS Q2Q%-34.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.3%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y0.41%
Sales Q2Q%-32.48%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.54% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.96% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-23.59%
EPS Next 2Y-7.47%
EPS Next 3Y0.41%
EPS Next 5Y2.54%
Revenue Next Year-15.37%
Revenue Next 2Y-7.32%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.48%
Revenue Next 5Y1.96%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 7.39, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 87.80% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (28.96), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 7.95, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 87.80% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.82, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.39 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.95 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 78.05% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 97.56% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.83 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1
EPS Next 2Y-7.47%
EPS Next 3Y0.41%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.11%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.74. HOG pays more dividend than 87.80% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.23.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.56%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.56%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
14.09% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP14.09%
EPS Next 2Y-7.47%
EPS Next 3Y0.41%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC
NYSE:HOG (11/21/2024, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 32.83 0 (0%)32.83
+0.34 (+1.05%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap4.18B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
Avg EPS beat(4)
Min EPS beat(4)
Max EPS beat(4)
EPS beat(8)
Avg EPS beat(8)
EPS beat(12)
Avg EPS beat(12)
EPS beat(16)
Avg EPS beat(16)
Revenue beat(2)
Avg Revenue beat(2)
Min Revenue beat(2)
Max Revenue beat(2)
Revenue beat(4)
Avg Revenue beat(4)
Min Revenue beat(4)
Max Revenue beat(4)
Revenue beat(8)
Avg Revenue beat(8)
Revenue beat(12)
Avg Revenue beat(12)
Revenue beat(16)
Avg Revenue beat(16)
PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.39 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.95 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.31% | ||
| ROE | 19.71% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 11.63% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.39% | ||
| GM | 35.68% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.58 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-9.76%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y-23.59%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.3%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y