HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4128221086 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG has a bad growth rate and is valued cheaply. These ratings would make HOG suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a better Return On Assets (2.86%) than 83.78% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Equity (11.11%) than 83.78% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 2.82%, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 6.62%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 7.39%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG has a better Operating Margin (6.56%) than 86.49% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
HOG has a better Gross Margin (34.71%) than 94.59% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.27. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG has a better Altman-Z score (1.27) than 62.16% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 7.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 7.93. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 86.49% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.72 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.72, HOG is doing worse than 64.86% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.27 |
ROIC/WACC0.4
WACC7.1%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.56, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.57% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.36. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of HOG (1.36) is better than 75.68% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased strongly by -40.44% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -17.15% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 7.21% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.52% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-21.36%
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue Next Year-9.84%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.31%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 9.53, the valuation of HOG can be described as very reasonable.
86.49% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.45, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.72 indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.90. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.72 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.76 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.11
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.04%.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.84. HOG pays more dividend than 89.19% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.04% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
25.39% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.39%
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
25.53
+0.1 (+0.39%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners98.14%
Inst Owner Change-3.29%
Ins Owners0.96%
Ins Owner Change8.58%
Market Cap3.10B
Analysts71
Price Target29.72 (16.41%)
Short Float %10.52%
Short Ratio6.71
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.04% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP25.39%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.93%
Min EPS beat(2)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)6.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)50.61%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)74.63%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)68.18%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.81%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.08%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.15%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.64%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)8.36%
PT rev (1m)1.16%
PT rev (3m)-7.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.03%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.89%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.89%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.54%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.79%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-6.81%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.72 | ||
| P/S | 0.65 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.37 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.82 | ||
| P/B | 0.97 | ||
| P/tB | 0.99 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.76 |
EPS(TTM)2.68
EY10.5%
EPS(NY)3.31
Fwd EY12.95%
FCF(TTM)7.58
FCFY29.7%
OCF(TTM)9.07
OCFY35.51%
SpS39.4
BVpS26.19
TBVpS25.68
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.11
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROCE | 3.58% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.56% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.59% | ||
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% | ||
| FCFM | 19.25% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.39
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 11.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 112% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.76% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 231.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 260.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.27 |
F-Score6
WACC7.1%
ROIC/WACC0.4
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
EPS Next Y-21.36%
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
Revenue Next Year-9.84%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.31%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%
EBIT growth 1Y-53.3%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year12.75%
EBIT Next 3Y12.86%
EBIT Next 5Y11.39%
FCF growth 1Y220.86%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y141.58%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%