HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:HOG • US4128221086

Current stock price

23.95 USD
+0.46 (+1.96%)
At close:
23.95 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This HOG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

9

1. HOG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
  • HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
HOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFHOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

1.2 Ratios

  • HOG's Return On Assets of 4.21% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 94.29% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of HOG (10.79%) is better than 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • HOG's Return On Invested Capital of 6.16% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.59%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (6.16%) for HOG is above the 3 year average (5.40%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.21%
ROE 10.79%
ROIC 6.16%
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)5.24%
ROE(3y)15.63%
ROE(5y)19.58%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)6.43%
HOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICHOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

  • HOG has a better Profit Margin (7.57%) than 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • HOG has a Operating Margin of 10.27%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
  • HOG has a better Gross Margin (31.64%) than 91.43% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 10.27%
PM (TTM) 7.57%
GM 31.64%
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y24.4%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y198.3%
GM growth 3Y-5.15%
GM growth 5Y-1.34%
HOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsHOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

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7

2. HOG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
  • HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has an improved debt to assets ratio.
HOG Yearly Shares OutstandingHOG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M
HOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsHOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.15 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 2.15, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.86% of the companies in the same industry.
  • HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.15. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 7.15 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.15 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 88.57% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.68 indicates that HOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.68, HOG is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.29% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.68
Debt/FCF 7.15
Altman-Z 2.15
ROIC/WACC0.69
WACC8.91%
HOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFHOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 2.10 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • HOG's Current ratio of 2.10 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
  • HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.83. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • HOG's Quick ratio of 1.83 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 85.71% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.1
Quick Ratio 1.83
HOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesHOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. HOG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • HOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -21.62%.
  • HOG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 215899.16% yearly.
  • HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -13.76%.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 1.99% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.62%
EPS 3Y-19.32%
EPS 5Y215899.16%
EPS Q2Q%-162.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.76%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.06%
Revenue growth 5Y1.99%
Sales Q2Q%-9.82%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 20.48% on average per year.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.96% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-84.99%
EPS Next 2Y-23.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.59%
EPS Next 5Y20.48%
Revenue Next Year0.64%
Revenue Next 2Y2.21%
Revenue Next 3Y1.98%
Revenue Next 5Y1.96%

3.3 Evolution

  • The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
HOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesHOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
HOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesHOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2 4 6 8 10

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6

4. HOG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 9.18, the valuation of HOG can be described as reasonable.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 94.29% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.95. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 61.12, the valuation of HOG can be described as expensive.
  • HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 68.57% of the companies in the same industry.
  • HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 38.68.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 9.18
Fwd PE 61.12
HOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsHOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 97.14% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • 97.14% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 6.29
EV/EBITDA 3.15
HOG Per share dataHOG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -10.59% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0
EPS Next 2Y-23.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.59%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

8

5. HOG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.34%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.98. HOG pays more dividend than 88.57% of the companies in the same industry.
  • HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.81.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.34%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of HOG grows each year by 10.40%, which is quite nice.
  • HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • As HOG did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.4%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
HOG Yearly Dividends per shareHOG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • HOG pays out 25.50% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
  • HOG's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP25.5%
EPS Next 2Y-23.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.59%
HOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendHOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
HOG Dividend Payout.HOG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.HOG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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HOG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC

NYSE:HOG (4/20/2026, 8:06:18 PM)

After market: 23.95 0 (0%)

23.95

+0.46 (+1.96%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)02-10
Earnings (Next)04-23
Inst Owners101.84%
Inst Owner Change-0.99%
Ins Owners0.26%
Ins Owner Change1.93%
Market Cap2.61B
Revenue(TTM)4.47B
Net Income(TTM)338.74M
Analysts68.57
Price Target22.57 (-5.76%)
Short Float %17.35%
Short Ratio4.97
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.34%
Yearly Dividend0.73
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.4%
DP25.5%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date03-02
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-15.74%
Min EPS beat(2)-131.73%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.27%
Min EPS beat(4)-131.73%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.33%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)34.13%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)53.37%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-22.3%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-6.34%
Min Revenue beat(4)-22.3%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.1%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-3.48%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.12%
PT rev (1m)-5.47%
PT rev (3m)-19.56%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-5.75%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-71.98%
EPS NY rev (1m)61.06%
EPS NY rev (3m)-81.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-10.78%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.42%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 9.18
Fwd PE 61.12
P/S 0.58
P/FCF 6.29
P/OCF 4.59
P/B 0.83
P/tB 0.85
EV/EBITDA 3.15
EPS(TTM)2.61
EY10.9%
EPS(NY)0.39
Fwd EY1.64%
FCF(TTM)3.81
FCFY15.89%
OCF(TTM)5.21
OCFY21.77%
SpS41
BVpS28.79
TBVpS28.2
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0
Graham Number41.1159 (71.67%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.21%
ROE 10.79%
ROCE 8.53%
ROIC 6.16%
ROICexc 12.98%
ROICexgc 13.28%
OM 10.27%
PM (TTM) 7.57%
GM 31.64%
FCFM 9.28%
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)5.24%
ROE(3y)15.63%
ROE(5y)19.58%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)6.43%
ROICexc(3y)8.34%
ROICexc(5y)8.95%
ROICexgc(3y)8.48%
ROICexgc(5y)9.08%
ROCE(3y)7.48%
ROCE(5y)8.92%
ROICexgc growth 3Y10.21%
ROICexgc growth 5Y47.07%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.7%
ROICexc growth 5Y46.78%
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y24.4%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y198.3%
GM growth 3Y-5.15%
GM growth 5Y-1.34%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.56
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.68
Debt/FCF 7.15
Debt/EBITDA 3.4
Cap/Depr 89.16%
Cap/Sales 3.44%
Interest Coverage 1.39
Cash Conversion 90.08%
Profit Quality 122.59%
Current Ratio 2.1
Quick Ratio 1.83
Altman-Z 2.15
F-Score8
WACC8.91%
ROIC/WACC0.69
Cap/Depr(3y)114.22%
Cap/Depr(5y)103.06%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)130.18%
Profit Quality(5y)115.13%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.62%
EPS 3Y-19.32%
EPS 5Y215899.16%
EPS Q2Q%-162.37%
EPS Next Y-84.99%
EPS Next 2Y-23.09%
EPS Next 3Y-10.59%
EPS Next 5Y20.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.76%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.06%
Revenue growth 5Y1.99%
Sales Q2Q%-9.82%
Revenue Next Year0.64%
Revenue Next 2Y2.21%
Revenue Next 3Y1.98%
Revenue Next 5Y1.96%
EBIT growth 1Y10.23%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.35%
EBIT growth 5Y26.87%
EBIT Next Year-68.26%
EBIT Next 3Y-17.84%
EBIT Next 5Y6.31%
FCF growth 1Y-52.12%
FCF growth 3Y1.53%
FCF growth 5Y-16.88%
OCF growth 1Y-46.52%
OCF growth 3Y1.23%
OCF growth 5Y-13.55%

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to HOG.


What is the valuation status for HOG stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 9 / 10.


Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?

The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for HOG stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to decline by -84.99% in the next year.