HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
21.43 USD
+0.28 (+1.32%)
21.3562 USD
-0.07 (-0.34%)
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 35 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. While HOG has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG has a bad growth rate and is valued cheaply. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
HOG's Return On Assets of 4.74% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 91.43% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 14.03%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.78%) than 94.29% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.91%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG's Profit Margin of 10.74% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG's Operating Margin of 11.88% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
The Gross Margin of HOG (33.26%) is better than 91.43% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.93 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of HOG (1.93) is better than 82.86% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 13.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 13.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is in the better half of the industry: HOG outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HOG has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.07) than 62.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
ROIC/WACC0.79
WACC7.29%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.51. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of HOG (2.51) is better than 91.43% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 2.36. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG's Quick ratio of 2.36 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -7.21% in the last year.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -15.99% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.88% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -1.09% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 5.20, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.19. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.95, the valuation of HOG can be described as very reasonable.
82.86% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.88), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.95 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.14% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.21 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.50% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.15
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.40%.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.79. HOG pays more dividend than 94.29% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.94, HOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
21.43
+0.28 (+1.32%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.63%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.53B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts69.52
Price Target28.06 (30.94%)
Short Float %16.59%
Short Ratio8.21
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-4.44%
PT rev (3m)-5.9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-299.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.1%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.48%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.95 | ||
| P/S | 0.54 | ||
| P/FCF | 6.46 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.6 | ||
| P/B | 0.71 | ||
| P/tB | 0.72 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.21 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY19.23%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY10.05%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY15.48%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY21.73%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.15
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
F-Score8
WACC7.29%
ROIC/WACC0.79
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year56.41%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.68%
EBIT Next 5Y8.89%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status for HOG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.