HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC (HGV) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HGV - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US43283X1054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall HGV gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated HGV against 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. HGV has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. HGV is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HGV was profitable.
HGV had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years HGV 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years HGV always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
HGV's Return On Assets of 0.29% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HGV is outperformed by 61.94% of its industry peers.
HGV has a Return On Equity of 2.15%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: HGV outperforms 55.97% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 4.64%, HGV perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.51% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HGV is significantly below the industry average of 13.81%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.29% | ||
| ROE | 2.15% | ||
| ROIC | 4.64% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
HGV has a Profit Margin of 0.68%. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 61.94% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HGV has declined.
HGV has a Operating Margin of 12.23%. This is in the better half of the industry: HGV outperforms 63.43% of its industry peers.
HGV's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
HGV has a Gross Margin of 22.72%. This is amonst the worse of the industry: HGV underperforms 83.58% of its industry peers.
HGV's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.23% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.68% | ||
| GM | 22.72% |
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HGV has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
HGV has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, HGV has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for HGV is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
HGV has an Altman-Z score of 1.01. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HGV has a Altman-Z score of 1.01. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 67.16% of its industry peers.
HGV has a debt to FCF ratio of 33.34. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HGV would need 33.34 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HGV (33.34) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
HGV has a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.38. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 4.38, HGV is not doing good in the industry: 60.45% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 33.34 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.01 |
ROIC/WACC0.52
WACC8.87%
2.3 Liquidity
HGV has a Current Ratio of 2.04. This indicates that HGV is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.04, HGV belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.33% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.44 indicates that HGV may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.44, HGV is not doing good in the industry: 74.63% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HGV have decreased strongly by -84.91% in the last year.
The earnings per share for HGV have been decreasing by -28.63% on average. This is quite bad
HGV shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 18.40%.
The Revenue has been growing by 22.07% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)-84.91%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%-325%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.4%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%-0.69%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 138.57% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
HGV is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.35% yearly.
EPS Next Y557.62%
EPS Next 2Y196.93%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.52%
Revenue Next 2Y6.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.35%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 140.19, which means the current valuation is very expensive for HGV.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HGV is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 61.94% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of HGV to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.45), we can say HGV is valued expensively.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.31, the valuation of HGV can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HGV is valued cheaper than 85.82% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.89. HGV is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 140.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.31 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HGV's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
HGV's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HGV is cheaper than 77.61% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.24 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as HGV's earnings are expected to grow with 138.57% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.25
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y196.93%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HGV does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
44.86
+0.39 (+0.88%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.06%
Inst Owner Change-81.68%
Ins Owners1.3%
Ins Owner Change5.95%
Market Cap4.11B
Analysts72.31
Price Target49.13 (9.52%)
Short Float %12.66%
Short Ratio8.01
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-104.53%
Min EPS beat(2)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(2)-75.25%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-93.38%
Min EPS beat(4)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(4)-66.66%
EPS beat(8)0
Avg EPS beat(8)-67.56%
EPS beat(12)2
Avg EPS beat(12)-43.25%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)-34.08%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.86%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.16%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.41%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.57%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.93%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.98%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.43%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.52%
PT rev (1m)0.93%
PT rev (3m)-1.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-7.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-11.13%
EPS NY rev (1m)-9.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.68%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.44%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.59%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.34%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.24%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 140.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.31 | ||
| P/S | 0.83 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.77 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.85 | ||
| P/B | 2.6 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.24 |
EPS(TTM)0.32
EY0.71%
EPS(NY)3.97
Fwd EY8.84%
FCF(TTM)2.27
FCFY5.06%
OCF(TTM)3.79
OCFY8.44%
SpS54.25
BVpS17.27
TBVpS-24.02
PEG (NY)0.25
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.29% | ||
| ROE | 2.15% | ||
| ROCE | 5.87% | ||
| ROIC | 4.64% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.76% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.65% | ||
| OM | 12.23% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.68% | ||
| GM | 22.72% | ||
| FCFM | 4.18% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)7.14%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)12.22%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.61%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-2.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.19%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.01%
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.42
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 33.34 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.87 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 50.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.8% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 39.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 611.77% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.01 |
F-Score5
WACC8.87%
ROIC/WACC0.52
Cap/Depr(3y)40.66%
Cap/Depr(5y)44.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.42%
Profit Quality(3y)216.58%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-84.91%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%-325%
EPS Next Y557.62%
EPS Next 2Y196.93%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.4%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%-0.69%
Revenue Next Year5.52%
Revenue Next 2Y6.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.35%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-14.85%
EBIT growth 3Y11.86%
EBIT growth 5Y17.22%
EBIT Next Year46.57%
EBIT Next 3Y16.97%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-49.14%
FCF growth 3Y12.36%
FCF growth 5Y17.42%
OCF growth 1Y-31.01%
OCF growth 3Y22.52%
OCF growth 5Y16.34%