HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC (HGV) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HGV - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US43283X1054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall HGV gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated HGV against 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. Both the profitability and financial health of HGV have multiple concerns. HGV has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HGV had positive earnings in the past year.
HGV had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years HGV 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years HGV had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of HGV (0.29%) is worse than 62.41% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 2.15%, HGV is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.64% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 4.64%, HGV is in line with its industry, outperforming 48.12% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HGV is significantly below the industry average of 13.81%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.29% | ||
| ROE | 2.15% | ||
| ROIC | 4.64% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
HGV has a Profit Margin of 0.68%. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 62.41% of its industry peers.
HGV's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of HGV (12.23%) is better than 63.16% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HGV has declined.
With a Gross Margin value of 22.72%, HGV is not doing good in the industry: 83.46% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HGV has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.23% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.68% | ||
| GM | 22.72% |
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HGV is destroying value.
HGV has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HGV has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
HGV has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.02, we must say that HGV is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
HGV's Altman-Z score of 1.02 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HGV is outperformed by 67.67% of its industry peers.
HGV has a debt to FCF ratio of 33.34. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HGV would need 33.34 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HGV has a Debt to FCF ratio (33.34) which is in line with its industry peers.
HGV has a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.38. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HGV has a Debt to Equity ratio of 4.38. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 60.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 33.34 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.02 |
ROIC/WACC0.53
WACC8.75%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.04 indicates that HGV has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.04, HGV belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV has a Quick Ratio of 2.04. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.44, HGV is not doing good in the industry: 75.19% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HGV have decreased strongly by -84.91% in the last year.
HGV shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -28.63% yearly.
Looking at the last year, HGV shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 18.40% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 22.07% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)-84.91%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%-325%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.4%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%-0.69%
3.2 Future
HGV is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 138.57% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, HGV will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.35% on average per year.
EPS Next Y557.62%
EPS Next 2Y196.93%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.52%
Revenue Next 2Y6.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.35%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 140.72, which means the current valuation is very expensive for HGV.
62.41% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than HGV, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.29. HGV is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
HGV is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.35.
86.47% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HGV, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HGV to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.74), we can say HGV is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 140.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.35 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HGV's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HGV indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: HGV is cheaper than 75.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.85 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.26 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as HGV's earnings are expected to grow with 138.57% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.25
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y196.93%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HGV does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
45.03
+0.17 (+0.38%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.06%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.3%
Ins Owner Change5.95%
Market Cap4.13B
Analysts72.31
Price Target49.13 (9.11%)
Short Float %12.66%
Short Ratio8.01
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-104.53%
Min EPS beat(2)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(2)-75.25%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-93.38%
Min EPS beat(4)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(4)-66.66%
EPS beat(8)0
Avg EPS beat(8)-67.56%
EPS beat(12)2
Avg EPS beat(12)-43.25%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)-34.08%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.86%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.16%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.41%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.57%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.93%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.98%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.43%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.52%
PT rev (1m)0.93%
PT rev (3m)-1.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-7.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-11.13%
EPS NY rev (1m)-9.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.68%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.44%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.59%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.34%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.24%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 140.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.35 | ||
| P/S | 0.83 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.85 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.9 | ||
| P/B | 2.61 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.26 |
EPS(TTM)0.32
EY0.71%
EPS(NY)3.97
Fwd EY8.81%
FCF(TTM)2.27
FCFY5.04%
OCF(TTM)3.79
OCFY8.41%
SpS54.25
BVpS17.27
TBVpS-24.02
PEG (NY)0.25
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.29% | ||
| ROE | 2.15% | ||
| ROCE | 5.87% | ||
| ROIC | 4.64% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.76% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.65% | ||
| OM | 12.23% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.68% | ||
| GM | 22.72% | ||
| FCFM | 4.18% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)7.14%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)12.22%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.61%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-2.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.19%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.01%
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.42
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 33.34 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.87 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 50.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.8% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 39.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 611.77% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.02 |
F-Score5
WACC8.75%
ROIC/WACC0.53
Cap/Depr(3y)40.66%
Cap/Depr(5y)44.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.42%
Profit Quality(3y)216.58%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-84.91%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%-325%
EPS Next Y557.62%
EPS Next 2Y196.93%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.4%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%-0.69%
Revenue Next Year5.52%
Revenue Next 2Y6.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.35%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-14.85%
EBIT growth 3Y11.86%
EBIT growth 5Y17.22%
EBIT Next Year46.57%
EBIT Next 3Y16.97%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-49.14%
FCF growth 3Y12.36%
FCF growth 5Y17.42%
OCF growth 1Y-31.01%
OCF growth 3Y22.52%
OCF growth 5Y16.34%