HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC (HGV) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:HGV - US43283X1054 - Common Stock
43.8 USD
+0.78 (+1.81%)
43.8 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, HGV scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. HGV was compared to 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. HGV has a bad profitability rating. Also its financial health evaluation is rather negative. HGV has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HGV had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HGV had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years HGV 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years HGV had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 0.49%, HGV is not doing good in the industry: 62.22% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Return On Equity of HGV (3.83%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 4.58%, HGV is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.63% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HGV is significantly below the industry average of 15.69%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.49% | ||
| ROE | 3.83% | ||
| ROIC | 4.58% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of HGV (1.14%) is worse than 62.22% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HGV has declined.
HGV has a better Operating Margin (12.09%) than 64.44% of its industry peers.
HGV's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 23.38%, HGV is doing worse than 82.96% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HGV has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 23.38% |
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HGV is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HGV has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for HGV has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HGV has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.02, we must say that HGV is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.02, HGV is doing worse than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HGV is 50.52, which is on the high side as it means it would take HGV, 50.52 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HGV (50.52) is worse than 60.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 4.75 is on the high side and indicates that HGV has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of HGV (4.75) is worse than 60.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.75 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 50.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.02 |
ROIC/WACC0.58
WACC7.93%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.38 indicates that HGV has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HGV has a Current ratio of 2.38. This is amongst the best in the industry. HGV outperforms 90.37% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.54 indicates that HGV may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
HGV's Quick ratio of 0.54 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HGV is outperformed by 68.15% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HGV have decreased strongly by -61.54% in the last year.
The earnings per share for HGV have been decreasing by -28.63% on average. This is quite bad
HGV shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 13.01%.
The Revenue has been growing by 22.07% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.54%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%1150%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.01%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%2.51%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 133.40% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, HGV will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.56% on average per year.
EPS Next Y470.09%
EPS Next 2Y204.98%
EPS Next 3Y133.4%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year3.21%
Revenue Next 2Y5.48%
Revenue Next 3Y3.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 79.64, which means the current valuation is very expensive for HGV.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of HGV indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: HGV is more expensive than 61.48% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of HGV to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.55), we can say HGV is valued expensively.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 10.46, which indicates a very decent valuation of HGV.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HGV is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.67% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.04, HGV is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 79.64 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.46 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HGV is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HGV indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: HGV is cheaper than 64.44% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 27.57 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.19 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as HGV's earnings are expected to grow with 133.40% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.17
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y204.98%
EPS Next 3Y133.4%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for HGV!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
43.8
+0.78 (+1.81%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners78.29%
Inst Owner Change0.19%
Ins Owners1.38%
Ins Owner Change1.37%
Market Cap3.86B
Analysts72.31
Price Target54.51 (24.45%)
Short Float %7.48%
Short Ratio4.38
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-100.54%
Min EPS beat(2)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(2)-67.27%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-85.75%
Min EPS beat(4)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(4)-66.66%
EPS beat(8)0
Avg EPS beat(8)-74.52%
EPS beat(12)2
Avg EPS beat(12)-46.14%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)-34.88%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-7.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.73%
Max Revenue beat(2)-7.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.63%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.73%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.93%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.95%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.1%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)9.5%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)10.96%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.38%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.31%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.07%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.45%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.62%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.18%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 79.64 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.46 | ||
| P/S | 0.77 | ||
| P/FCF | 27.57 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.08 | ||
| P/B | 2.59 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.19 |
EPS(TTM)0.55
EY1.26%
EPS(NY)4.19
Fwd EY9.56%
FCF(TTM)1.59
FCFY3.63%
OCF(TTM)3.35
OCFY7.64%
SpS56.79
BVpS16.9
TBVpS-25.6
PEG (NY)0.17
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.49% | ||
| ROE | 3.83% | ||
| ROCE | 5.8% | ||
| ROIC | 4.58% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.71% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.21% | ||
| OM | 12.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 23.38% | ||
| FCFM | 2.8% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)7.14%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)12.22%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.61%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-2.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.19%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.01%
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.75 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 50.52 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 8.14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 58.71% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.1% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 33.95% | ||
| Profit Quality | 245.61% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.02 |
F-Score6
WACC7.93%
ROIC/WACC0.58
Cap/Depr(3y)40.66%
Cap/Depr(5y)44.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.42%
Profit Quality(3y)216.58%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.54%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%1150%
EPS Next Y470.09%
EPS Next 2Y204.98%
EPS Next 3Y133.4%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.01%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%2.51%
Revenue Next Year3.21%
Revenue Next 2Y5.48%
Revenue Next 3Y3.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-11.81%
EBIT growth 3Y11.86%
EBIT growth 5Y17.22%
EBIT Next Year40.66%
EBIT Next 3Y17.19%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-60%
FCF growth 3Y12.36%
FCF growth 5Y17.42%
OCF growth 1Y-32.49%
OCF growth 3Y22.52%
OCF growth 5Y16.34%