HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC (HGV) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:HGV - US43283X1054 - Common Stock
45.21 USD
-1.03 (-2.23%)
45.21 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, HGV scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. HGV was compared to 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. Both the profitability and financial health of HGV have multiple concerns. HGV is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HGV was profitable.
In the past year HGV had a positive cash flow from operations.
HGV had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years HGV had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
HGV has a Return On Assets of 0.49%. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 64.66% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 3.83%, HGV is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.64% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of HGV (4.58%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HGV is significantly below the industry average of 15.68%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.49% | ||
| ROE | 3.83% | ||
| ROIC | 4.58% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
HGV's Profit Margin of 1.14% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HGV is outperformed by 63.91% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HGV has declined.
HGV's Operating Margin of 12.09% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HGV outperforms 63.91% of its industry peers.
HGV's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
HGV's Gross Margin of 23.38% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HGV is outperformed by 83.46% of its industry peers.
HGV's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 23.38% |
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HGV is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HGV has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
HGV has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for HGV is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
HGV has an Altman-Z score of 1.03. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.03, HGV is doing worse than 67.67% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HGV is 50.52, which is on the high side as it means it would take HGV, 50.52 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 50.52, HGV is doing worse than 60.15% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV has a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.75. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HGV's Debt to Equity ratio of 4.75 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HGV is outperformed by 60.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.75 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 50.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.03 |
ROIC/WACC0.52
WACC8.79%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.38 indicates that HGV has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HGV's Current ratio of 2.38 is amongst the best of the industry. HGV outperforms 90.23% of its industry peers.
HGV has a Quick Ratio of 2.38. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of HGV (0.54) is worse than 69.17% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HGV have decreased strongly by -61.54% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, HGV shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -28.63% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, HGV shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 13.01% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, HGV shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 22.07% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.54%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%1150%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.01%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%2.51%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 133.40% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.56% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y470.09%
EPS Next 2Y209.8%
EPS Next 3Y133.4%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.58%
Revenue Next 2Y5.56%
Revenue Next 3Y3.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 82.20, which means the current valuation is very expensive for HGV.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of HGV indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: HGV is more expensive than 62.41% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.30. HGV is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.47, the valuation of HGV can be described as very reasonable.
87.97% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HGV, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HGV to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.73), we can say HGV is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 82.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.47 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HGV's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HGV indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: HGV is cheaper than 65.41% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 28.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.41 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as HGV's earnings are expected to grow with 133.40% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.17
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y209.8%
EPS Next 3Y133.4%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for HGV!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
45.21
-1.03 (-2.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.12%
Inst Owner Change-4.44%
Ins Owners1.3%
Ins Owner Change0.78%
Market Cap3.98B
Analysts72.31
Price Target54.51 (20.57%)
Short Float %6.94%
Short Ratio3.62
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-100.54%
Min EPS beat(2)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(2)-67.27%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-85.75%
Min EPS beat(4)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(4)-66.66%
EPS beat(8)0
Avg EPS beat(8)-74.52%
EPS beat(12)2
Avg EPS beat(12)-46.14%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)-34.88%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-7.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.73%
Max Revenue beat(2)-7.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.63%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.73%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.93%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.95%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.1%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)9.5%
PT rev (1m)0.21%
PT rev (3m)11.99%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.5%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.38%
EPS NY rev (1m)-13.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)-21.4%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.01%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.71%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.11%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 82.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.47 | ||
| P/S | 0.8 | ||
| P/FCF | 28.46 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.5 | ||
| P/B | 2.68 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.41 |
EPS(TTM)0.55
EY1.22%
EPS(NY)4.32
Fwd EY9.55%
FCF(TTM)1.59
FCFY3.51%
OCF(TTM)3.35
OCFY7.4%
SpS56.79
BVpS16.9
TBVpS-25.6
PEG (NY)0.17
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.49% | ||
| ROE | 3.83% | ||
| ROCE | 5.8% | ||
| ROIC | 4.58% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.71% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.21% | ||
| OM | 12.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.14% | ||
| GM | 23.38% | ||
| FCFM | 2.8% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)7.14%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)12.22%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.61%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-2.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.19%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.01%
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.75 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 50.52 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 8.14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 58.71% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.1% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 33.95% | ||
| Profit Quality | 245.61% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.03 |
F-Score6
WACC8.79%
ROIC/WACC0.52
Cap/Depr(3y)40.66%
Cap/Depr(5y)44.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.42%
Profit Quality(3y)216.58%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-61.54%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%1150%
EPS Next Y470.09%
EPS Next 2Y209.8%
EPS Next 3Y133.4%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.01%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%2.51%
Revenue Next Year2.58%
Revenue Next 2Y5.56%
Revenue Next 3Y3.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-11.81%
EBIT growth 3Y11.86%
EBIT growth 5Y17.22%
EBIT Next Year40.92%
EBIT Next 3Y17.47%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-60%
FCF growth 3Y12.36%
FCF growth 5Y17.42%
OCF growth 1Y-32.49%
OCF growth 3Y22.52%
OCF growth 5Y16.34%