HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC (HGV) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HGV - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US43283X1054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall HGV gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated HGV against 132 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. Both the profitability and financial health of HGV have multiple concerns. HGV has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HGV was profitable.
HGV had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years HGV 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years HGV had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 0.29%, HGV is not doing good in the industry: 62.12% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
With a Return On Equity value of 2.15%, HGV perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.06% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV's Return On Invested Capital of 4.64% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. HGV outperforms 49.24% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HGV is significantly below the industry average of 13.91%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.29% | ||
| ROE | 2.15% | ||
| ROIC | 4.64% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
HGV has a Profit Margin of 0.68%. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 62.12% of its industry peers.
HGV's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of HGV (12.23%) is better than 63.64% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HGV has declined.
With a Gross Margin value of 22.72%, HGV is not doing good in the industry: 84.09% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
HGV's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.23% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.68% | ||
| GM | 22.72% |
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HGV has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HGV has less shares outstanding
HGV has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HGV has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
HGV has an Altman-Z score of 1.02. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HGV has a Altman-Z score of 1.02. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HGV is 33.34, which is on the high side as it means it would take HGV, 33.34 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HGV (33.34) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
HGV has a Debt/Equity ratio of 4.38. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HGV has a Debt to Equity ratio of 4.38. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 62.12% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 33.34 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.02 |
ROIC/WACC0.52
WACC8.97%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.04 indicates that HGV has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HGV's Current ratio of 2.04 is amongst the best of the industry. HGV outperforms 85.61% of its industry peers.
HGV has a Quick Ratio of 2.04. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of HGV (0.44) is worse than 75.76% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HGV shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -84.91%.
Measured over the past years, HGV shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -28.63% on average per year.
HGV shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 18.40%.
Measured over the past years, HGV shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 22.07% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-84.91%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%-325%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.4%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%-0.69%
3.2 Future
HGV is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 138.57% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.35% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y557.62%
EPS Next 2Y202.78%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.52%
Revenue Next 2Y6.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.35%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
HGV is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 146.09.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HGV is valued a bit more expensive than 62.12% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.50, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
HGV is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.33.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HGV indicates a rather cheap valuation: HGV is cheaper than 85.61% of the companies listed in the same industry.
HGV is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 36.44, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 146.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.33 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HGV is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HGV is valued a bit cheaper than 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.6 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
HGV's earnings are expected to grow with 138.57% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.26
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y202.78%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for HGV!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
46.75
+0.61 (+1.32%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.06%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners1.3%
Ins Owner Change5.95%
Market Cap4.29B
Analysts72.31
Price Target49.13 (5.09%)
Short Float %12.4%
Short Ratio7.82
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-104.53%
Min EPS beat(2)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(2)-75.25%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-93.38%
Min EPS beat(4)-133.82%
Max EPS beat(4)-66.66%
EPS beat(8)0
Avg EPS beat(8)-67.56%
EPS beat(12)2
Avg EPS beat(12)-43.25%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)-34.08%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.86%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.16%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.41%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.57%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.93%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.98%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.43%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.52%
PT rev (1m)0.93%
PT rev (3m)-1.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-7.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-15.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)-9.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.68%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.44%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.29%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.34%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.97%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 146.09 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.33 | ||
| P/S | 0.86 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.6 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.35 | ||
| P/B | 2.71 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.38 |
EPS(TTM)0.32
EY0.68%
EPS(NY)4.13
Fwd EY8.82%
FCF(TTM)2.27
FCFY4.85%
OCF(TTM)3.79
OCFY8.1%
SpS54.25
BVpS17.27
TBVpS-24.02
PEG (NY)0.26
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.29% | ||
| ROE | 2.15% | ||
| ROCE | 5.87% | ||
| ROIC | 4.64% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.76% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.65% | ||
| OM | 12.23% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.68% | ||
| GM | 22.72% | ||
| FCFM | 4.18% |
ROA(3y)2.8%
ROA(5y)0.84%
ROE(3y)11.28%
ROE(5y)-2.21%
ROIC(3y)6.8%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)7.14%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)12.22%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.61%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-2.64%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.1%
ROICexc growth 3Y-1.19%
ROICexc growth 5Y-10.01%
OM growth 3Y-13.11%
OM growth 5Y-3.97%
PM growth 3Y-49.98%
PM growth 5Y-39.61%
GM growth 3Y-11.04%
GM growth 5Y-2.08%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.42
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 4.38 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 33.34 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.87 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 50.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.8% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 39.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 611.77% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.04 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.02 |
F-Score5
WACC8.97%
ROIC/WACC0.52
Cap/Depr(3y)40.66%
Cap/Depr(5y)44.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.31%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.42%
Profit Quality(3y)216.58%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-84.91%
EPS 3Y-33.78%
EPS 5Y-28.63%
EPS Q2Q%-325%
EPS Next Y557.62%
EPS Next 2Y202.78%
EPS Next 3Y138.57%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.4%
Revenue growth 3Y28.73%
Revenue growth 5Y22.07%
Sales Q2Q%-0.69%
Revenue Next Year5.52%
Revenue Next 2Y6.2%
Revenue Next 3Y4.35%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-14.85%
EBIT growth 3Y11.86%
EBIT growth 5Y17.22%
EBIT Next Year46.57%
EBIT Next 3Y16.97%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-49.14%
FCF growth 3Y12.36%
FCF growth 5Y17.42%
OCF growth 1Y-31.01%
OCF growth 3Y22.52%
OCF growth 5Y16.34%