HILTON GRAND VACATIONS INC (HGV) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HGV - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US43283X1054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to HGV. HGV was compared to 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. HGV may be in some trouble as it scores bad on both profitability and health. HGV has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HGV was profitable.
In the past year HGV had a positive cash flow from operations.
HGV had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
HGV had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of HGV (0.85%) is worse than 60.31% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 5.15%, HGV is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.73% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV's Return On Invested Capital of 4.96% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. HGV outperforms 47.33% of its industry peers.
HGV had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.16%. This is below the industry average of 10.79%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.85% | ||
| ROE | 5.15% | ||
| ROIC | 4.96% |
ROA(3y)3.4%
ROA(5y)2.16%
ROE(3y)13.34%
ROE(5y)4.83%
ROIC(3y)6.16%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 2.01%, HGV is in line with its industry, outperforming 45.04% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 14.72%, HGV is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.65% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
HGV has a Gross Margin of 24.60%. This is amonst the worse of the industry: HGV underperforms 83.21% of its industry peers.
HGV's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.72% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.01% | ||
| GM | 24.6% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-4.56%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-12%
GM growth 3Y31.43%
GM growth 5Y-1.36%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HGV is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HGV has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HGV has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for HGV is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.13, we must say that HGV is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
HGV has a Altman-Z score of 1.13. This is in the lower half of the industry: HGV underperforms 64.12% of its industry peers.
HGV has a debt to FCF ratio of 61.71. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HGV would need 61.71 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HGV has a worse Debt to FCF ratio (61.71) than 62.60% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.58 is on the high side and indicates that HGV has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of HGV (3.58) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.58 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 61.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.13 |
ROIC/WACC0.61
WACC8.12%
2.3 Liquidity
HGV has a Current Ratio of 2.53. This indicates that HGV is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 2.53, HGV belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.08% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV has a Quick Ratio of 2.53. This is a bad value and indicates that HGV is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HGV has a worse Quick ratio (0.60) than 65.65% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.6 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HGV have decreased strongly by -69.23% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, HGV shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -3.23% on average per year.
HGV shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 19.36%.
HGV shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.75% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-69.23%
EPS 3Y85.31%
EPS 5Y-3.23%
EPS Q2Q%-66.27%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.36%
Revenue growth 3Y64.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.75%
Sales Q2Q%28.29%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HGV will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.06% on average per year.
HGV is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 10.83% yearly.
EPS Next Y-64.65%
EPS Next 2Y12.14%
EPS Next 3Y13.06%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year25.45%
Revenue Next 2Y15.03%
Revenue Next 3Y10.83%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
Although the future Revenue growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
HGV is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 46.60.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as HGV.
HGV is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.63, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
HGV is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.65.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HGV is valued cheaper than 89.31% of the companies in the same industry.
HGV is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.68, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.65 |
4.2 Price Multiples
61.07% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HGV, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as HGV.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 37.75 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as HGV's earnings are expected to grow with 13.06% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y12.14%
EPS Next 3Y13.06%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HGV does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
41.01
-0.98 (-2.33%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners101.31%
Inst Owner Change-97.99%
Ins Owners1.23%
Ins Owner Change-3.73%
Market Cap4.04B
Analysts72.86
Price Target47.15 (14.97%)
Short Float %10.9%
Short Ratio8.96
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-82.23%
Min EPS beat(2)-97.8%
Max EPS beat(2)-66.66%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-76.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-105.53%
Max EPS beat(4)-34.96%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-42%
EPS beat(12)2
Avg EPS beat(12)-30.78%
EPS beat(16)4
Avg EPS beat(16)71.44%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.97%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.86%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.93%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.08%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.86%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.57%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.59%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)10.57%
PT rev (1m)0.21%
PT rev (3m)-1.13%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.56%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.56%
EPS NY rev (1m)-13.78%
EPS NY rev (3m)-49.43%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.08%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.08%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.32%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46.6 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.65 | ||
| P/S | 0.86 | ||
| P/FCF | 37.75 | ||
| P/OCF | 19.8 | ||
| P/B | 2.19 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9 |
EPS(TTM)0.88
EY2.15%
EPS(NY)3.52
Fwd EY8.59%
FCF(TTM)1.09
FCFY2.65%
OCF(TTM)2.07
OCFY5.05%
SpS47.88
BVpS18.73
TBVpS-19.38
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.85% | ||
| ROE | 5.15% | ||
| ROCE | 6.94% | ||
| ROIC | 4.96% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.11% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.94% | ||
| OM | 14.72% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.01% | ||
| GM | 24.6% | ||
| FCFM | 2.27% |
ROA(3y)3.4%
ROA(5y)2.16%
ROE(3y)13.34%
ROE(5y)4.83%
ROIC(3y)6.16%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.52%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)11.29%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.62%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-5.55%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-13.11%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-4.56%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-12%
GM growth 3Y31.43%
GM growth 5Y-1.36%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.42
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.58 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 61.71 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 6.96 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 38.04% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.06% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 21.5% | ||
| Profit Quality | 112.63% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.6 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.13 |
F-Score5
WACC8.12%
ROIC/WACC0.61
Cap/Depr(3y)35.31%
Cap/Depr(5y)59.67%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.03%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.6%
Profit Quality(3y)111.22%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-69.23%
EPS 3Y85.31%
EPS 5Y-3.23%
EPS Q2Q%-66.27%
EPS Next Y-64.65%
EPS Next 2Y12.14%
EPS Next 3Y13.06%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)19.36%
Revenue growth 3Y64.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.75%
Sales Q2Q%28.29%
Revenue Next Year25.45%
Revenue Next 2Y15.03%
Revenue Next 3Y10.83%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y3.43%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y9.53%
EBIT Next Year56.52%
EBIT Next 3Y20.15%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-87.11%
FCF growth 3Y70.28%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-77.21%
OCF growth 3Y58.07%
OCF growth 5YN/A