WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC)
US93627C1018 - Common Stock
HCC gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 156 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making HCC a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. HCC has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HCC was profitable.
HCC had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
HCC had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years HCC always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
HCC's Return On Assets of 14.66% is amongst the best of the industry. HCC outperforms 92.95% of its industry peers.
HCC has a better Return On Equity (18.13%) than 88.46% of its industry peers.
HCC's Return On Invested Capital of 13.75% is amongst the best of the industry. HCC outperforms 92.95% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HCC is significantly above the industry average of 8.89%.
The 3 year average ROIC (25.81%) for HCC is well above the current ROIC(13.75%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 14.66% | ||
| ROE | 18.13% | ||
| ROIC | 13.75% |
ROA(3y)20.74%
ROA(5y)16.42%
ROE(3y)29.05%
ROE(5y)24.32%
ROIC(3y)25.81%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 23.77%, HCC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.23% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HCC has declined.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 24.71%, HCC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.26% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HCC has declined.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 37.20%, HCC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 80.13% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HCC has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 24.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.77% | ||
| GM | 37.2% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-10.8%
GM growth 3Y40.08%
GM growth 5Y-1.66%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HCC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
HCC has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HCC has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
HCC has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
HCC has an Altman-Z score of 6.05. This indicates that HCC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
HCC's Altman-Z score of 6.05 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HCC outperforms 76.92% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HCC is 5.72, which is a neutral value as it means it would take HCC, 5.72 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 5.72, HCC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
HCC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.08. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.08, HCC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 62.82% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.72 | ||
| Altman-Z | 6.05 |
ROIC/WACC1.24
WACC11.06%
2.3 Liquidity
HCC has a Current Ratio of 5.81. This indicates that HCC is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
HCC has a Current ratio of 5.81. This is amongst the best in the industry. HCC outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
HCC has a Quick Ratio of 4.67. This indicates that HCC is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
HCC has a Quick ratio of 4.67. This is amongst the best in the industry. HCC outperforms 82.05% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 5.81 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 4.67 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HCC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -18.77%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 1.93% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has decreased by -3.99% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, HCC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.00% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.77%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y1.93%
EPS Q2Q%-56.76%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.99%
Revenue growth 3Y28.91%
Revenue growth 5Y4%
Sales Q2Q%-22.61%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -15.28% on average over the next years. This is quite bad
Based on estimates for the next years, HCC will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.39% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-44.33%
EPS Next 2Y-34.81%
EPS Next 3Y-15.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-10.14%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.84%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.39%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 7.56, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HCC.
HCC's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HCC is cheaper than 94.87% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.73. HCC is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.55 indicates a correct valuation of HCC.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HCC is valued a bit cheaper than 61.54% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.83. HCC is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.56 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.55 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HCC is valued cheaply inside the industry as 87.82% of the companies are valued more expensively.
HCC's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 96.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.67 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of HCC may justify a higher PE ratio.
HCC's earnings are expected to decrease with -15.28% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.91
EPS Next 2Y-34.81%
EPS Next 3Y-15.28%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HCC has a yearly dividend return of 0.50%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.98, HCC pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.24, HCC's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HCC decreases each year by -29.73%.
HCC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-29.73%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
HCC pays out 11.67% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
HCC's earnings and Dividend Rate are declining. This means the current dividend is most likely not sustainable.
DP11.67%
EPS Next 2Y-34.81%
EPS Next 3Y-15.28%
WARRIOR MET COAL INC
NYSE:HCC (12/20/2024, 8:16:16 PM)
After market: 54.93 0 (0%)54.93
-0.93 (-1.66%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners99.4%
Inst Owner Change6.09%
Ins Owners3.09%
Ins Owner Change-2.49%
Market Cap2.87B
Analysts78
Price Target77.52 (41.13%)
Short Float %10.36%
Short Ratio7.92
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)-29.73%
DP11.67%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.01%
Min EPS beat(2)0.12%
Max EPS beat(2)5.89%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-0.17%
Min EPS beat(4)-5.4%
Max EPS beat(4)5.89%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)2.09%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.01%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)11.19%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.66%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.16%
Max Revenue beat(2)3.17%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.2%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.72%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.6%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.45%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.61%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.73%
PT rev (1m)0.26%
PT rev (3m)-1.3%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-67.46%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-23.53%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-23.2%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-7.24%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.56 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.55 | ||
| P/S | 1.81 | ||
| P/FCF | 96.5 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.15 | ||
| P/B | 1.38 | ||
| P/tB | 1.38 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.67 |
EPS(TTM)7.27
EY13.24%
EPS(NY)4.05
Fwd EY7.38%
FCF(TTM)0.57
FCFY1.04%
OCF(TTM)10.67
OCFY19.43%
SpS30.43
BVpS39.89
TBVpS39.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.91
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 14.66% | ||
| ROE | 18.13% | ||
| ROCE | 16.3% | ||
| ROIC | 13.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 18.22% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.22% | ||
| OM | 24.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.77% | ||
| GM | 37.2% | ||
| FCFM | 1.87% |
ROA(3y)20.74%
ROA(5y)16.42%
ROE(3y)29.05%
ROE(5y)24.32%
ROIC(3y)25.81%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)42.27%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)42.27%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)30.6%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-5.31%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-5.31%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-10.8%
GM growth 3Y40.08%
GM growth 5Y-1.66%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.62
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.72 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.29 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 376.55% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 33.21% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 104.63% | ||
| Profit Quality | 7.87% | ||
| Current Ratio | 5.81 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 4.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 6.05 |
F-Score4
WACC11.06%
ROIC/WACC1.24
Cap/Depr(3y)227.68%
Cap/Depr(5y)182.88%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.55%
Cap/Sales(5y)15.52%
Profit Quality(3y)104.7%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-18.77%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y1.93%
EPS Q2Q%-56.76%
EPS Next Y-44.33%
EPS Next 2Y-34.81%
EPS Next 3Y-15.28%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.99%
Revenue growth 3Y28.91%
Revenue growth 5Y4%
Sales Q2Q%-22.61%
Revenue Next Year-10.14%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.84%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.39%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-27.03%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y1.22%
EBIT Next Year-15.78%
EBIT Next 3Y1.13%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-95.36%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-17.04%
OCF growth 1Y-32.04%
OCF growth 3Y83.97%
OCF growth 5Y4.62%