GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GPK - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3886891015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall GPK gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated GPK against 23 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. GPK is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GPK was profitable.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years GPK has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years GPK always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
GPK has a better Return On Assets (5.90%) than 82.61% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 21.85%, GPK belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a better Return On Invested Capital (9.37%) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GPK is above the industry average of 7.72%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 21.85% | ||
| ROIC | 9.37% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
GPK has a better Profit Margin (7.47%) than 82.61% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of GPK (12.99%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
GPK's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 22.50%, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.47% | ||
| GM | 22.5% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GPK is still creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GPK has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.97. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GPK has a Altman-Z score (1.97) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.71 is on the high side and indicates that GPK has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.71, GPK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 43.48% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.71 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.97 |
ROIC/WACC1.43
WACC6.55%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.46 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.46, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Quick Ratio of 1.46. This is a bad value and indicates that GPK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GPK has a worse Quick ratio (0.54) than 82.61% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -14.73%.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 23.12% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -6.59% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.41% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-21.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.59%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.85%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 7.99% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.18% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y2.16%
EPS Next 2Y5.86%
EPS Next 3Y5.85%
EPS Next 5Y7.99%
Revenue Next Year-1.99%
Revenue Next 2Y0.24%
Revenue Next 3Y1.24%
Revenue Next 5Y2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 10.04, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.79, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.83 indicates a reasonable valuation of GPK.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GPK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 78.26% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.38, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.04 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.83 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 82.61% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.44 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates GPK does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
GPK has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)4.65
PEG (5Y)0.43
EPS Next 2Y5.86%
EPS Next 3Y5.85%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.74%, GPK has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
GPK's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.57.
GPK's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.51.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.74% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
18.54% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GPK. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP18.54%
EPS Next 2Y5.86%
EPS Next 3Y5.85%
25.01
-0.32 (-1.26%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners109.61%
Inst Owner Change-0.28%
Ins Owners1.14%
Ins Owner Change9.82%
Market Cap7.55B
Analysts78.67
Price Target31.04 (24.11%)
Short Float %6%
Short Ratio6.7
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.74% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP18.54%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.8%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-6.12%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.19%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.47%
Max EPS beat(4)4.7%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.09%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)6.45%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.67%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.76%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.53%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.03%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.27%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.17%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.59%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.2%
PT rev (1m)-1.42%
PT rev (3m)-4.84%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.85%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.59%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.98%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.2%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.51%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.96%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.43%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.78%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.04 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.83 | ||
| P/S | 0.86 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 8.97 | ||
| P/B | 2.51 | ||
| P/tB | 21.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.44 |
EPS(TTM)2.49
EY9.96%
EPS(NY)2.54
Fwd EY10.17%
FCF(TTM)-1.2
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.79
OCFY11.14%
SpS29.19
BVpS9.98
TBVpS1.17
PEG (NY)4.65
PEG (5Y)0.43
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 21.85% | ||
| ROCE | 12.38% | ||
| ROIC | 9.37% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.53% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.46% | ||
| OM | 12.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.47% | ||
| GM | 22.5% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.79
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.71 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.04 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 215.98% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 13.66% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.32 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 49.44% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.97 |
F-Score5
WACC6.55%
ROIC/WACC1.43
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-21.33%
EPS Next Y2.16%
EPS Next 2Y5.86%
EPS Next 3Y5.85%
EPS Next 5Y7.99%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.59%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.85%
Revenue Next Year-1.99%
Revenue Next 2Y0.24%
Revenue Next 3Y1.24%
Revenue Next 5Y2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-11.32%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year43.92%
EBIT Next 3Y15.83%
EBIT Next 5Y11.1%
FCF growth 1Y-206.47%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-26.49%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%