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GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:GPK - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3886891015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

27.08  0 (0%)

Premarket: 27.09 +0.01 (+0.04%)

Fundamental Rating

5

We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GPK. GPK was compared to 24 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. GPK has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year GPK was profitable.
In the past year GPK had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK had a positive operating cash flow.
GPK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGPK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M -500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of GPK (5.90%) is better than 82.61% of its industry peers.
GPK's Return On Equity of 21.85% is amongst the best of the industry. GPK outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Return On Invested Capital of 9.37%. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 73.91% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GPK is above the industry average of 7.72%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.9%
ROE 21.85%
ROIC 9.37%
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
GPK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGPK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15 20 25

1.3 Margins

GPK's Profit Margin of 7.47% is amongst the best of the industry. GPK outperforms 82.61% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GPK has a Operating Margin of 12.99%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GPK outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
GPK's Gross Margin of 22.50% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 65.22% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.99%
PM (TTM) 7.47%
GM 22.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
GPK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGPK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15 20

3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GPK is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GPK has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for GPK has been reduced compared to a year ago.
GPK Yearly Shares OutstandingGPK Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M
GPK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGPK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

An Altman-Z score of 2.00 indicates that GPK is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GPK's Altman-Z score of 2.00 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.71 is on the high side and indicates that GPK has dependencies on debt financing.
GPK's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.71 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 43.48% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.71
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 2
ROIC/WACC1.4
WACC6.71%
GPK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGPK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 2B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

GPK has a Current Ratio of 1.46. This is a normal value and indicates that GPK is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GPK's Current ratio of 1.46 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 47.83% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.54 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.54, GPK is doing worse than 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.46
Quick Ratio 0.54
GPK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGPK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -14.73%.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 23.12% on average per year.
GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -6.59%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.41% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-21.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.59%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.85%

3.2 Future

GPK is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 9.23% yearly.
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.46% yearly.
EPS Next Y4.23%
EPS Next 2Y7.22%
EPS Next 3Y7.01%
EPS Next 5Y9.23%
Revenue Next Year-1.56%
Revenue Next 2Y0.81%
Revenue Next 3Y2%
Revenue Next 5Y2.46%

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
GPK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGPK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
GPK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGPK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 1 2 3

6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 10.88, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GPK to the average of the S&P500 Index (29.62), we can say GPK is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.43, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GPK's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 22.70.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.88
Fwd PE 10.43
GPK Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGPK Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

91.30% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 7.72
GPK Per share dataGPK EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of GPK may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)2.57
PEG (5Y)0.47
EPS Next 2Y7.22%
EPS Next 3Y7.01%

5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.62%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
GPK's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.15.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.27, GPK is paying slightly less dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.62%

5.2 History

The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
As GPK did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years6
GPK Yearly Dividends per shareGPK Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

18.54% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GPK. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP18.54%
EPS Next 2Y7.22%
EPS Next 3Y7.01%
GPK Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendGPK Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M -500M
GPK Dividend Payout.GPK Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.GPK Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO

NYSE:GPK (2/21/2025, 8:24:21 PM)

Premarket: 27.09 +0.01 (+0.04%)

27.08

0 (0%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)02-04 2025-02-04/bmo
Earnings (Next)05-01 2025-05-01/bmo
Inst Owners109.61%
Inst Owner Change-91.32%
Ins Owners1.14%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap8.13B
Analysts80
Price Target32.03 (18.28%)
Short Float %6%
Short Ratio7.96
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.62%
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP18.54%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date03-14 2025-03-14 (0.11)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.8%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-6.12%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.19%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.47%
Max EPS beat(4)4.7%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.09%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)6.45%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.67%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.76%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.53%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.03%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.27%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.17%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.59%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.2%
PT rev (1m)-3.47%
PT rev (3m)-3.47%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-4.83%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-10.35%
EPS NY rev (1m)-4.3%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.47%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.7%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.26%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.28%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 10.88
Fwd PE 10.43
P/S 0.92
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 9.67
P/B 2.7
P/tB 23.09
EV/EBITDA 7.72
EPS(TTM)2.49
EY9.19%
EPS(NY)2.6
Fwd EY9.58%
FCF(TTM)-1.21
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.8
OCFY10.35%
SpS29.34
BVpS10.03
TBVpS1.17
PEG (NY)2.57
PEG (5Y)0.47
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.9%
ROE 21.85%
ROCE 12.38%
ROIC 9.37%
ROICexc 9.53%
ROICexgc 13.46%
OM 12.99%
PM (TTM) 7.47%
GM 22.5%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.79
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.71
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 3.04
Cap/Depr 215.98%
Cap/Sales 13.66%
Interest Coverage 5.32
Cash Conversion 49.44%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.46
Quick Ratio 0.54
Altman-Z 2
F-Score5
WACC6.71%
ROIC/WACC1.4
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-21.33%
EPS Next Y4.23%
EPS Next 2Y7.22%
EPS Next 3Y7.01%
EPS Next 5Y9.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.59%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.85%
Revenue Next Year-1.56%
Revenue Next 2Y0.81%
Revenue Next 3Y2%
Revenue Next 5Y2.46%
EBIT growth 1Y-11.32%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year48.2%
EBIT Next 3Y18.34%
EBIT Next 5Y11.32%
FCF growth 1Y-206.47%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-26.49%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%