GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK)
US3886891015 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GPK. GPK was compared to 24 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. GPK has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GPK was profitable.
In the past year GPK had a positive cash flow from operations.
GPK had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
GPK has a Return On Assets of 6.38%. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of GPK (23.80%) is better than 82.61% of its industry peers.
GPK has a better Return On Invested Capital (9.32%) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
GPK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.49%. This is significantly below the industry average of 382233.10%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.49%) for GPK is below the current ROIC(9.32%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.38% | ||
| ROE | 23.8% | ||
| ROIC | 9.32% |
ROA(3y)4.49%
ROA(5y)3.69%
ROE(3y)20.36%
ROE(5y)17.2%
ROIC(3y)8.49%
ROIC(5y)7.98%
1.3 Margins
GPK has a Profit Margin of 7.99%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GPK outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GPK's Operating Margin of 13.16% is amongst the best of the industry. GPK outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 22.65%, GPK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 13.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.99% | ||
| GM | 22.65% |
OM growth 3Y15.3%
OM growth 5Y11.76%
PM growth 3Y44.34%
PM growth 5Y15.9%
GM growth 3Y10.94%
GM growth 5Y7.71%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GPK is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GPK has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 2.04. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 2.04, GPK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.79. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GPK has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.79) than 65.22% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.79 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.04 |
ROIC/WACC1.38
WACC6.73%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.73 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.73, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Quick Ratio of 1.73. This is a bad value and indicates that GPK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of GPK (0.72) is worse than 86.96% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.72 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GPK have decreased by -3.99% in the last year.
GPK shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 28.92% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -6.31% in the past year.
GPK shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 9.35% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-3.99%
EPS 3Y38.04%
EPS 5Y28.92%
EPS Q2Q%-13.51%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.31%
Revenue growth 3Y12.85%
Revenue growth 5Y9.35%
Sales Q2Q%-5.66%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 5.28% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.00% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-12.67%
EPS Next 2Y-3.63%
EPS Next 3Y0.62%
EPS Next 5Y5.28%
Revenue Next Year-7.51%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.45%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.29%
Revenue Next 5Y1%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.33, which indicates a very decent valuation of GPK.
GPK's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GPK is cheaper than 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.72. GPK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.09, the valuation of GPK can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GPK to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.64), we can say GPK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.09 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GPK is valued cheaper than 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.72 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of GPK may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
EPS Next 2Y-3.63%
EPS Next 3Y0.62%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.35%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
GPK's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 2.91.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.24, GPK is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.35% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.98%.
GPK has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.98%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
17.04% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GPK. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP17.04%
EPS Next 2Y-3.63%
EPS Next 3Y0.62%
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO
NYSE:GPK (12/19/2024, 11:50:03 AM)
27.365
-0.2 (-0.71%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners106.05%
Inst Owner Change-0.54%
Ins Owners10.76%
Ins Owner Change-1.05%
Market Cap8.21B
Analysts80
Price Target33.18 (21.25%)
Short Float %5.77%
Short Ratio6.93
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.35% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.98%
DP17.04%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-0.71%
Min EPS beat(2)-6.12%
Max EPS beat(2)4.7%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)2.35%
Min EPS beat(4)-6.12%
Max EPS beat(4)6.69%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)3.13%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)7.47%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.32%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.27%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.8%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.37%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.27%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.49%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.98%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.77%
PT rev (1m)-0.97%
PT rev (3m)-2.34%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-7.74%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.9%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.68%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.59%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.33 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.09 | ||
| P/S | 0.92 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 10.36 | ||
| P/B | 2.73 | ||
| P/tB | 31.47 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.72 |
EPS(TTM)2.65
EY9.68%
EPS(NY)2.71
Fwd EY9.91%
FCF(TTM)-1.04
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.64
OCFY9.66%
SpS29.86
BVpS10.03
TBVpS0.87
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.36
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.38% | ||
| ROE | 23.8% | ||
| ROCE | 12.41% | ||
| ROIC | 9.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.35% | ||
| OM | 13.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.99% | ||
| GM | 22.65% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)4.49%
ROA(5y)3.69%
ROE(3y)20.36%
ROE(5y)17.2%
ROIC(3y)8.49%
ROIC(5y)7.98%
ROICexc(3y)8.65%
ROICexc(5y)8.16%
ROICexgc(3y)13.11%
ROICexgc(5y)12.3%
ROCE(3y)11.31%
ROCE(5y)10.64%
ROICexcg growth 3Y15.47%
ROICexcg growth 5Y13.68%
ROICexc growth 3Y14.63%
ROICexc growth 5Y13.49%
OM growth 3Y15.3%
OM growth 5Y11.76%
PM growth 3Y44.34%
PM growth 5Y15.9%
GM growth 3Y10.94%
GM growth 5Y7.71%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.8
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.79 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.07 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 192.51% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 12.33% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 45.24% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.73 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.72 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.04 |
F-Score7
WACC6.73%
ROIC/WACC1.38
Cap/Depr(3y)131.06%
Cap/Depr(5y)121.58%
Cap/Sales(3y)8.52%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.23%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-3.99%
EPS 3Y38.04%
EPS 5Y28.92%
EPS Q2Q%-13.51%
EPS Next Y-12.67%
EPS Next 2Y-3.63%
EPS Next 3Y0.62%
EPS Next 5Y5.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.31%
Revenue growth 3Y12.85%
Revenue growth 5Y9.35%
Sales Q2Q%-5.66%
Revenue Next Year-7.51%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.45%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.29%
Revenue Next 5Y1%
EBIT growth 1Y-6.28%
EBIT growth 3Y30.12%
EBIT growth 5Y22.22%
EBIT Next Year26.8%
EBIT Next 3Y11.76%
EBIT Next 5Y8.46%
FCF growth 1Y-381.08%
FCF growth 3Y23.98%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y2.99%
OCF growth 3Y11.53%
OCF growth 5YN/A