GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4016171054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
GES gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. While GES belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. GES scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination. These ratings would make GES suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GES was profitable.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years GES 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GES had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 4.51%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.77% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 27.97%, GES belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 83.47% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a better Return On Invested Capital (8.24%) than 71.07% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GES is in line with the industry average of 14.02%.
The 3 year average ROIC (13.67%) for GES is well above the current ROIC(8.24%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.51% | ||
| ROE | 27.97% | ||
| ROIC | 8.24% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 3.56%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.07% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 5.29%, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.25% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 43.51%, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.77% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.56% | ||
| GM | 43.51% |
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GES has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GES has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GES has an Altman-Z score of 2.43. This is not the best score and indicates that GES is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GES has a Altman-Z score (2.43) which is in line with its industry peers.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.36. This is a neutral value as GES would need 4.36 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.36, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.94% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.28. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GES has a Debt to Equity ratio (1.28) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.43 |
ROIC/WACC1.96
WACC4.21%
2.3 Liquidity
GES has a Current Ratio of 1.54. This is a normal value and indicates that GES is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GES's Current ratio of 1.54 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 61.98% of its industry peers.
GES has a Quick Ratio of 1.54. This is a bad value and indicates that GES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GES has a better Quick ratio (0.74) than 66.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.74 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GES shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -13.19%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 26.83% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
GES shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 31.17%.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 1.25% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.19%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y26.83%
EPS Q2Q%-30.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y1.25%
Sales Q2Q%13.41%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -10.31% on average per year.
GES is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.63% yearly.
EPS Next Y-39.08%
EPS Next 2Y-15.02%
EPS Next 3Y-10.31%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.85%
Revenue Next 2Y6.05%
Revenue Next 3Y4.63%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GES is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 3.98.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 29.71, GES is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 4.37 indicates a rather cheap valuation of GES.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaper than 96.69% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 22.34.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 3.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 4.37 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 92.56% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GES's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GES is cheaper than 98.35% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.91 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GES has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
GES's earnings are expected to decrease with -10.31% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.15
EPS Next 2Y-15.02%
EPS Next 3Y-10.31%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 11.41%, which is a nice return.
In the last 3 months the price of GES has falen by -40.13%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.84, GES pays a better dividend. On top of this GES pays more dividend than 97.52% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.30, GES pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 11.41% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.24%.
GES has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
GES pays out 145.91% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of GES has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP145.91%
EPS Next 2Y-15.02%
EPS Next 3Y-10.31%
9.95
-0.02 (-0.2%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.88%
Inst Owner Change-2.62%
Ins Owners33.92%
Ins Owner Change35.93%
Market Cap512.03M
Analysts72.5
Price Target19.66 (97.59%)
Short Float %29.93%
Short Ratio7.5
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 11.41% |
Yearly Dividend1.17
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
DP145.91%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.76%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(2)-3.29%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)11.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)32.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)26.66%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)13.85%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)34.36%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.4%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.64%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.58%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.12%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.22%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.99%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.8%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-15%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-17.03%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-23.91%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.81%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.27%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 3.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 4.37 | ||
| P/S | 0.14 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.59 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.25 | ||
| P/B | 1.14 | ||
| P/tB | 1.23 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.91 |
EPS(TTM)2.5
EY25.13%
EPS(NY)2.28
Fwd EY22.86%
FCF(TTM)2.77
FCFY27.86%
OCF(TTM)4.43
OCFY44.51%
SpS68.91
BVpS8.76
TBVpS8.09
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.15
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.51% | ||
| ROE | 27.97% | ||
| ROCE | 9.64% | ||
| ROIC | 8.24% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.88% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.05% | ||
| OM | 5.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.56% | ||
| GM | 43.51% | ||
| FCFM | 4.02% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
ROICexc(3y)17.19%
ROICexc(5y)12.26%
ROICexgc(3y)17.63%
ROICexgc(5y)12.57%
ROCE(3y)16.01%
ROCE(5y)11.49%
ROICexcg growth 3Y137.48%
ROICexcg growth 5Y9.31%
ROICexc growth 3Y137.97%
ROICexc growth 5Y9.89%
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.36 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.28 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 128.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 7.32 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 113.15% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.43 |
F-Score6
WACC4.21%
ROIC/WACC1.96
Cap/Depr(3y)126.09%
Cap/Depr(5y)98.76%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.82%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.35%
Profit Quality(3y)70.37%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.19%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y26.83%
EPS Q2Q%-30.61%
EPS Next Y-39.08%
EPS Next 2Y-15.02%
EPS Next 3Y-10.31%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y1.25%
Sales Q2Q%13.41%
Revenue Next Year8.85%
Revenue Next 2Y6.05%
Revenue Next 3Y4.63%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-18.49%
EBIT growth 3Y150.41%
EBIT growth 5Y20.82%
EBIT Next Year2.55%
EBIT Next 3Y4.33%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y1196.97%
FCF growth 3Y10.44%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y115.84%
OCF growth 3Y16.47%
OCF growth 5Y32.24%