GUESS? INC (GES)
US4016171054 - Common Stock
GES gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. GES scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination. These ratings could make GES a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GES was profitable.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years GES 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years GES always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
GES's Return On Assets of 4.51% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 67.50% of its industry peers.
GES has a Return On Equity of 27.97%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GES outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
GES has a better Return On Invested Capital (8.24%) than 70.83% of its industry peers.
GES had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 13.67%. This is in line with the industry average of 12.29%.
The 3 year average ROIC (13.67%) for GES is well above the current ROIC(8.24%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.51% | ||
| ROE | 27.97% | ||
| ROIC | 8.24% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
1.3 Margins
GES has a better Profit Margin (3.56%) than 70.83% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GES has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of GES (5.29%) is better than 70.00% of its industry peers.
GES's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GES has a better Gross Margin (43.51%) than 67.50% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GES has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.56% | ||
| GM | 43.51% |
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GES is creating value.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GES has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, GES has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.49 indicates that GES is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 2.49, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.67% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.36. This is a neutral value as GES would need 4.36 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GES (4.36) is better than 65.00% of its industry peers.
GES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.28. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.28, GES is doing worse than 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.49 |
ROIC/WACC1.91
WACC4.31%
2.3 Liquidity
GES has a Current Ratio of 1.54. This is a normal value and indicates that GES is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.54, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.83% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.74 indicates that GES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GES has a Quick ratio of 0.74. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.74 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GES have decreased strongly by -13.19% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 26.83% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 31.17% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
GES shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 1.25% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.19%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y26.83%
EPS Q2Q%-30.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y1.25%
Sales Q2Q%13.41%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -9.00% on average per year.
GES is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.82% yearly.
EPS Next Y-38.68%
EPS Next 2Y-14.78%
EPS Next 3Y-9%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.89%
Revenue Next 2Y6.12%
Revenue Next 3Y4.82%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 5.74, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of GES.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 99.17% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.54, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 6.27, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of GES.
GES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GES is cheaper than 94.17% of the companies in the same industry.
GES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.99, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.74 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.27 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GES is valued cheaper than 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GES indicates a rather cheap valuation: GES is cheaper than 97.50% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GES has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as GES's earnings are expected to decrease with -9.00% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.21
EPS Next 2Y-14.78%
EPS Next 3Y-9%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 8.50%, GES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
In the last 3 months the price of GES has falen by -28.54%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.46. GES pays more dividend than 97.50% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 8.5% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.24%.
GES has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
145.91% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of GES has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP145.91%
EPS Next 2Y-14.78%
EPS Next 3Y-9%
GUESS? INC
NYSE:GES (12/24/2024, 8:16:38 PM)
After market: 14.0788 -0.27 (-1.89%)14.35
+0.08 (+0.56%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.52%
Inst Owner Change-10.17%
Ins Owners29.55%
Ins Owner Change34.53%
Market Cap738.45M
Analysts71.11
Price Target20.27 (41.25%)
Short Float %26.13%
Short Ratio8.47
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 8.5% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
DP145.91%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.76%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(2)-3.29%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)11.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)32.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)26.66%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)13.85%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)34.36%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.4%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.64%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.58%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.12%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.22%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.99%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.8%
PT rev (1m)-12.35%
PT rev (3m)-28.19%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-13.14%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-13.14%
EPS NY rev (1m)-23.79%
EPS NY rev (3m)-23.79%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-7.98%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-7.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.3%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.3%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.74 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.27 | ||
| P/S | 0.21 | ||
| P/FCF | 5.18 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.24 | ||
| P/B | 1.64 | ||
| P/tB | 1.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8 |
EPS(TTM)2.5
EY17.42%
EPS(NY)2.29
Fwd EY15.94%
FCF(TTM)2.77
FCFY19.32%
OCF(TTM)4.43
OCFY30.87%
SpS68.91
BVpS8.76
TBVpS8.09
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.21
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.51% | ||
| ROE | 27.97% | ||
| ROCE | 9.64% | ||
| ROIC | 8.24% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.88% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.05% | ||
| OM | 5.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.56% | ||
| GM | 43.51% | ||
| FCFM | 4.02% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
ROICexc(3y)17.19%
ROICexc(5y)12.26%
ROICexgc(3y)17.63%
ROICexgc(5y)12.57%
ROCE(3y)16.01%
ROCE(5y)11.49%
ROICexcg growth 3Y137.48%
ROICexcg growth 5Y9.31%
ROICexc growth 3Y137.97%
ROICexc growth 5Y9.89%
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.36 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.28 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 128.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 7.32 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 113.15% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.49 |
F-Score6
WACC4.31%
ROIC/WACC1.91
Cap/Depr(3y)126.09%
Cap/Depr(5y)98.76%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.82%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.35%
Profit Quality(3y)70.37%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.19%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y26.83%
EPS Q2Q%-30.61%
EPS Next Y-38.68%
EPS Next 2Y-14.78%
EPS Next 3Y-9%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y1.25%
Sales Q2Q%13.41%
Revenue Next Year8.89%
Revenue Next 2Y6.12%
Revenue Next 3Y4.82%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-18.49%
EBIT growth 3Y150.41%
EBIT growth 5Y20.82%
EBIT Next Year18.91%
EBIT Next 3Y4.79%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y1196.97%
FCF growth 3Y10.44%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y115.84%
OCF growth 3Y16.47%
OCF growth 5Y32.24%