GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4016171054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
GES gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. GES is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GES had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years GES reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
GES had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
GES's Return On Assets of 4.51% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 66.12% of its industry peers.
GES has a Return On Equity of 27.97%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GES outperforms 84.30% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 8.24%, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.42% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GES is in line with the industry average of 14.45%.
The 3 year average ROIC (13.67%) for GES is well above the current ROIC(8.24%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.51% | ||
| ROE | 27.97% | ||
| ROIC | 8.24% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of GES (3.56%) is better than 71.07% of its industry peers.
GES's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 5.29%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.77% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GES has grown nicely.
GES has a Gross Margin of 43.51%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 67.77% of its industry peers.
GES's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.56% | ||
| GM | 43.51% |
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GES is creating value.
GES has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.43 indicates that GES is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 2.43, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.85% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 4.36. This is a neutral value as GES would need 4.36 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 4.36, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.29% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.28 is on the high side and indicates that GES has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of GES (1.28) is worse than 60.33% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.43 |
ROIC/WACC1.96
WACC4.21%
2.3 Liquidity
GES has a Current Ratio of 1.54. This is a normal value and indicates that GES is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GES has a better Current ratio (1.54) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.74 indicates that GES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 0.74, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.74 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GES have decreased strongly by -37.46% in the last year.
Measured over the past 5 years, GES shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.64% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.46%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-26.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%4.62%
3.2 Future
GES is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -3.64% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.07% on average per year.
EPS Next Y6.13%
EPS Next 2Y-0.01%
EPS Next 3Y-3.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.6%
Revenue Next 2Y3.84%
Revenue Next 3Y3.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 4.92, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of GES.
95.87% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.29, GES is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 4.63 indicates a rather cheap valuation of GES.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 96.69% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.08. GES is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 4.63 |
4.2 Price Multiples
85.12% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GES indicates a rather cheap valuation: GES is cheaper than 95.87% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.86 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
GES's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.64% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)0.8
PEG (5Y)1.06
EPS Next 2Y-0.01%
EPS Next 3Y-3.64%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 12.38%, GES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
In the last 3 months the price of GES has falen by -23.03%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.57, GES pays a better dividend. On top of this GES pays more dividend than 97.52% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.52.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 12.38% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.24%.
GES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
145.91% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
GES's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP145.91%
EPS Next 2Y-0.01%
EPS Next 3Y-3.64%
9.69
+0.73 (+8.15%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.88%
Inst Owner Change0.01%
Ins Owners33.92%
Ins Owner Change38.59%
Market Cap502.33M
Analysts74.29
Price Target16.32 (68.42%)
Short Float %32.35%
Short Ratio7.49
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 12.38% |
Yearly Dividend1.17
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
DP145.91%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.76%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(2)-3.29%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)11.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)32.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)26.66%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)13.85%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)34.36%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.4%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.64%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.58%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.12%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.22%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.99%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.8%
PT rev (1m)-8.57%
PT rev (3m)-19.48%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-19.14%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.23%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.87%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.98%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.43%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.46%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 4.63 | ||
| P/S | 0.14 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.5 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.19 | ||
| P/B | 1.11 | ||
| P/tB | 1.2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 3.86 |
EPS(TTM)1.97
EY20.33%
EPS(NY)2.09
Fwd EY21.58%
FCF(TTM)2.77
FCFY28.61%
OCF(TTM)4.43
OCFY45.71%
SpS68.91
BVpS8.76
TBVpS8.09
PEG (NY)0.8
PEG (5Y)1.06
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.51% | ||
| ROE | 27.97% | ||
| ROCE | 9.64% | ||
| ROIC | 8.24% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.88% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.05% | ||
| OM | 5.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.56% | ||
| GM | 43.51% | ||
| FCFM | 4.02% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
ROICexc(3y)17.19%
ROICexc(5y)12.26%
ROICexgc(3y)17.63%
ROICexgc(5y)12.57%
ROCE(3y)16.01%
ROCE(5y)11.49%
ROICexcg growth 3Y137.48%
ROICexcg growth 5Y9.31%
ROICexc growth 3Y137.97%
ROICexc growth 5Y9.89%
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.36 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.28 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 128.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 7.32 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 113.15% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.43 |
F-Score6
WACC4.21%
ROIC/WACC1.96
Cap/Depr(3y)126.09%
Cap/Depr(5y)98.76%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.82%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.35%
Profit Quality(3y)70.37%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.46%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-26.37%
EPS Next Y6.13%
EPS Next 2Y-0.01%
EPS Next 3Y-3.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%4.62%
Revenue Next Year4.6%
Revenue Next 2Y3.84%
Revenue Next 3Y3.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-18.49%
EBIT growth 3Y150.41%
EBIT growth 5Y20.82%
EBIT Next Year1.43%
EBIT Next 3Y0.41%
EBIT Next 5Y0.24%
FCF growth 1Y1196.97%
FCF growth 3Y10.44%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y115.84%
OCF growth 3Y16.47%
OCF growth 5Y32.24%