GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4016171054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall GES gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated GES against 119 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. While GES has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. GES is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination! With these ratings, GES could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GES had positive earnings in the past year.
GES had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years GES 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years GES always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GES (4.51%) is better than 66.38% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of GES (27.97%) is better than 82.76% of its industry peers.
GES has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.24%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 69.83% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GES is in line with the industry average of 12.39%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.24%) for GES is well below the 3 year average (13.67%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that GES had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.51% | ||
| ROE | 27.97% | ||
| ROIC | 8.24% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
1.3 Margins
GES has a Profit Margin of 3.56%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 70.69% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GES has grown nicely.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 5.29%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.97% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GES has a Gross Margin of 43.51%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 67.24% of its industry peers.
GES's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.56% | ||
| GM | 43.51% |
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GES is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GES has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for GES has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GES has an Altman-Z score of 2.47. This is not the best score and indicates that GES is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 2.47, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.31% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GES is 4.36, which is a neutral value as it means it would take GES, 4.36 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GES has a better Debt to FCF ratio (4.36) than 64.66% of its industry peers.
GES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.28. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GES's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.28 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GES is outperformed by 60.34% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.47 |
ROIC/WACC1.92
WACC4.3%
2.3 Liquidity
GES has a Current Ratio of 1.54. This is a normal value and indicates that GES is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GES has a Current ratio of 1.54. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 61.21% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.74 indicates that GES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.74, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.38% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.74 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GES shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -13.19%.
GES shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 26.83% yearly.
GES shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 31.17%.
GES shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 1.25% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.19%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y26.83%
EPS Q2Q%-30.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y1.25%
Sales Q2Q%13.41%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -9.00% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.63% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-38.68%
EPS Next 2Y-14.78%
EPS Next 3Y-9%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.85%
Revenue Next 2Y6.05%
Revenue Next 3Y4.63%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 5.16, the valuation of GES can be described as very cheap.
99.14% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
GES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.51, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
GES is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.64.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 96.55% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 93.88. GES is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.64 |
4.2 Price Multiples
93.97% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GES is valued cheaper than 98.28% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 4.66 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.59 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as GES's earnings are expected to decrease with -9.00% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.19
EPS Next 2Y-14.78%
EPS Next 3Y-9%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 8.88%, which is a nice return.
In the last 3 months the price of GES has falen by -23.92%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.19. GES pays more dividend than 98.28% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.27.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 8.88% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.24%.
GES has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
145.91% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of GES has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP145.91%
EPS Next 2Y-14.78%
EPS Next 3Y-9%
GUESS? INC
NYSE:GES (1/31/2025, 4:28:00 PM)
After market: 13.2313 +0.32 (+2.49%)12.91
-0.39 (-2.93%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.52%
Inst Owner Change-6.51%
Ins Owners29.55%
Ins Owner Change34.59%
Market Cap664.35M
Analysts71.11
Price Target20.27 (57.01%)
Short Float %23.54%
Short Ratio6.17
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 8.88% |
Yearly Dividend1.17
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
DP145.91%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.76%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(2)-3.29%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)11.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)32.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)26.66%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)13.85%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)34.36%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.4%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.64%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.58%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.12%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.22%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.99%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.8%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-15.34%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-13.14%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-23.79%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-7.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.33%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.64 | ||
| P/S | 0.19 | ||
| P/FCF | 4.66 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.91 | ||
| P/B | 1.47 | ||
| P/tB | 1.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.59 |
EPS(TTM)2.5
EY19.36%
EPS(NY)2.29
Fwd EY17.72%
FCF(TTM)2.77
FCFY21.47%
OCF(TTM)4.43
OCFY34.31%
SpS68.91
BVpS8.76
TBVpS8.09
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.19
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.51% | ||
| ROE | 27.97% | ||
| ROCE | 9.64% | ||
| ROIC | 8.24% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.88% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.05% | ||
| OM | 5.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.56% | ||
| GM | 43.51% | ||
| FCFM | 4.02% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
ROICexc(3y)17.19%
ROICexc(5y)12.26%
ROICexgc(3y)17.63%
ROICexgc(5y)12.57%
ROCE(3y)16.01%
ROCE(5y)11.49%
ROICexcg growth 3Y137.48%
ROICexcg growth 5Y9.31%
ROICexc growth 3Y137.97%
ROICexc growth 5Y9.89%
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.28 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 4.36 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.28 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 128.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 7.32 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 113.15% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.47 |
F-Score6
WACC4.3%
ROIC/WACC1.92
Cap/Depr(3y)126.09%
Cap/Depr(5y)98.76%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.82%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.35%
Profit Quality(3y)70.37%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.19%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y26.83%
EPS Q2Q%-30.61%
EPS Next Y-38.68%
EPS Next 2Y-14.78%
EPS Next 3Y-9%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y1.25%
Sales Q2Q%13.41%
Revenue Next Year8.85%
Revenue Next 2Y6.05%
Revenue Next 3Y4.63%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-18.49%
EBIT growth 3Y150.41%
EBIT growth 5Y20.82%
EBIT Next Year2.55%
EBIT Next 3Y4.33%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y1196.97%
FCF growth 3Y10.44%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y115.84%
OCF growth 3Y16.47%
OCF growth 5Y32.24%