GUESS? INC (GES)
US4016171054 - Common Stock
GES gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. While GES has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. GES may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth This makes GES very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GES was profitable.
GES had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GES had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GES always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 6.72%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.41% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 37.98%, GES belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.07% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Return On Invested Capital of 9.82%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 77.05% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GES is in line with the industry average of 12.27%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.72% | ||
| ROE | 37.98% | ||
| ROIC | 9.82% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
1.3 Margins
GES has a Profit Margin of 6.51%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GES outperforms 82.79% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GES has grown nicely.
GES has a better Operating Margin (7.71%) than 78.69% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GES has grown nicely.
GES has a Gross Margin of 44.10%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 68.85% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GES has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 7.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.51% | ||
| GM | 44.1% |
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GES is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GES has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, GES has less shares outstanding
GES has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.34 indicates that GES is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GES has a Altman-Z score (2.34) which is in line with its industry peers.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 2.59. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as GES would need 2.59 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GES (2.59) is better than 74.59% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.10 is on the high side and indicates that GES has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of GES (1.10) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.1 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.59 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.34 |
ROIC/WACC2.19
WACC4.48%
2.3 Liquidity
GES has a Current Ratio of 1.47. This is a normal value and indicates that GES is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.47, GES is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.38% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Quick Ratio of 1.47. This is a bad value and indicates that GES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GES has a Quick ratio of 0.76. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 66.39% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GES have decreased by -6.36% in the last year.
GES shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 26.83% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 6.75% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 1.25% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.36%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y26.83%
EPS Q2Q%-41.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.75%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y1.25%
Sales Q2Q%10.24%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -4.11% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.09% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-19.54%
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-4.11%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year11.45%
Revenue Next 2Y8.06%
Revenue Next 3Y6.09%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 6.44, the valuation of GES can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 99.18% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.29, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.00, the valuation of GES can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaper than 98.36% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GES to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.01), we can say GES is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 96.72% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GES's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GES is cheaper than 99.18% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.92 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.34 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
GES's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.11% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.24
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-4.11%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 7.22%, which is a nice return.
In the last 3 months the price of GES has falen by -20.72%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.12. GES pays more dividend than 97.54% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.19, GES pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.22% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.24%.
GES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
98.92% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
GES's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP98.92%
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-4.11%
GUESS? INC
NYSE:GES (11/22/2024, 8:04:00 PM)
After market: 17.07 0 (0%)17.07
+0.44 (+2.65%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap877.74M
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.22% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
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Revenue beat(2)
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PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.44 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.24
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.72% | ||
| ROE | 37.98% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 7.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.51% | ||
| GM | 44.1% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover1.03
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.1 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.36%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y-19.54%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)6.75%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y