GENESCO INC (GCO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GCO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3715321028 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
GCO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. The financial health of GCO is average, but there are quite some concerns on its profitability. GCO has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GCO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GCO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years GCO reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In multiple years GCO reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
GCO has a Return On Assets of -1.82%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GCO outperforms 41.32% of its industry peers.
GCO's Return On Equity of -5.05% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GCO outperforms 47.93% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 0.62%, GCO is doing worse than 61.16% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GCO is significantly below the industry average of 14.32%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (0.62%) for GCO is well below the 3 year average (6.50%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that GCO had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.82% | ||
| ROE | -5.05% | ||
| ROIC | 0.62% |
ROA(3y)3.68%
ROA(5y)2.23%
ROE(3y)9.32%
ROE(5y)5.59%
ROIC(3y)6.5%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Operating Margin of GCO (0.34%) is worse than 61.98% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GCO has declined.
GCO's Gross Margin of 46.99% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GCO outperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GCO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 0.34% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 46.99% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-28.03%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.63%
GM growth 5Y-0.24%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GCO is destroying value.
There is no outstanding debt for GCO. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
2.2 Solvency
GCO has an Altman-Z score of 2.26. This is not the best score and indicates that GCO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GCO has a Altman-Z score of 2.26. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GCO outperforms 52.07% of its industry peers.
GCO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.95. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.95 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 1.95, GCO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.55% of the companies in the same industry.
GCO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.19. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of GCO (0.19) is better than 61.98% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.19 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.26 |
ROIC/WACC0.06
WACC10.93%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.56 indicates that GCO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GCO has a Current ratio of 1.56. This is in the better half of the industry: GCO outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
GCO has a Quick Ratio of 1.56. This is a bad value and indicates that GCO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.32, GCO is doing worse than 70.25% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.32 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 30.56% over the past year.
GCO shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -28.12% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)30.56%
EPS 3Y-50.35%
EPS 5Y-28.12%
EPS Q2Q%25.87%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%0.95%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GCO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 73.76% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 14.51% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y151.96%
EPS Next 2Y73.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.72%
Revenue Next 2Y14.51%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 28.84, the valuation of GCO can be described as expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as GCO.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.35. GCO is around the same levels.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.45 indicates a reasonable valuation of GCO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GCO is valued a bit cheaper than 75.21% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.10. GCO is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28.84 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.45 |
4.2 Price Multiples
80.99% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GCO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GCO indicates a rather cheap valuation: GCO is cheaper than 93.39% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.93 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.05 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GCO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
GCO's earnings are expected to grow with 73.76% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y73.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for GCO!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
27.11
-5.29 (-16.33%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.14%
Inst Owner Change0.15%
Ins Owners7.19%
Ins Owner Change2.16%
Market Cap303.90M
Analysts46.67
Price Target40.8 (50.5%)
Short Float %5.42%
Short Ratio2.75
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)44.77%
Min EPS beat(2)26.3%
Max EPS beat(2)63.23%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)23.95%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.55%
Max EPS beat(4)63.23%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)6.52%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)64.83%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)282.1%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.57%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.5%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.64%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)1.5%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.68%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.11%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.54%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.24%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)48.15%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.75%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)43.51%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)7.38%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.42%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28.84 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.45 | ||
| P/S | 0.13 | ||
| P/FCF | 5.93 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.41 | ||
| P/B | 0.59 | ||
| P/tB | 0.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.05 |
EPS(TTM)0.94
EY3.47%
EPS(NY)2.37
Fwd EY8.74%
FCF(TTM)4.57
FCFY16.87%
OCF(TTM)7.96
OCFY29.36%
SpS206.79
BVpS46.11
TBVpS42.86
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -1.82% | ||
| ROE | -5.05% | ||
| ROCE | 0.77% | ||
| ROIC | 0.62% | ||
| ROICexc | 0.64% | ||
| ROICexgc | 0.66% | ||
| OM | 0.34% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 46.99% | ||
| FCFM | 2.21% |
ROA(3y)3.68%
ROA(5y)2.23%
ROE(3y)9.32%
ROE(5y)5.59%
ROIC(3y)6.5%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)8.1%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)8.76%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)8.1%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-33.11%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-31.11%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-28.03%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1.63%
GM growth 5Y-0.24%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.61
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.19 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.95 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.63 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 71.02% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.64% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 1.54 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 145.64% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.32 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.26 |
F-Score5
WACC10.93%
ROIC/WACC0.06
Cap/Depr(3y)129.09%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.44%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.01%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)30.56%
EPS 3Y-50.35%
EPS 5Y-28.12%
EPS Q2Q%25.87%
EPS Next Y151.96%
EPS Next 2Y73.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%0.95%
Revenue Next Year1.72%
Revenue Next 2Y14.51%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-72.24%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-27.15%
EBIT Next Year426.96%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y123.8%
FCF growth 3Y-36.32%
FCF growth 5Y-28.07%
OCF growth 1Y157.12%
OCF growth 3Y-15.6%
OCF growth 5Y-16.75%