GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GBX - US3936571013 - Common Stock
50.58 USD
-0.31 (-0.61%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to GBX. GBX was compared to 132 industry peers in the Machinery industry. While GBX is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GBX has a bad growth rate and is valued cheaply. GBX also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year GBX was profitable.
- In the past year GBX had a positive cash flow from operations.
- GBX had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
- The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: GBX reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
- GBX has a Return On Assets (4.31%) which is in line with its industry peers.
- GBX has a Return On Equity of 12.01%. This is in the better half of the industry: GBX outperforms 69.70% of its industry peers.
- GBX has a Return On Invested Capital (5.20%) which is in line with its industry peers.
- GBX had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.26%. This is below the industry average of 10.24%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.31% | ||
| ROE | 12.01% | ||
| ROIC | 5.2% |
ROA(3y)3.34%
ROA(5y)2.44%
ROE(3y)9.98%
ROE(5y)7.22%
ROIC(3y)6.26%
ROIC(5y)4.32%
1.3 Margins
- GBX has a Profit Margin (6.03%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GBX has grown nicely.
- GBX has a Operating Margin (8.99%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GBX has grown nicely.
- GBX has a worse Gross Margin (17.50%) than 78.03% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GBX has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 8.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.03% | ||
| GM | 17.5% |
OM growth 3Y57.6%
OM growth 5Y14.86%
PM growth 3Y58.73%
PM growth 5Y29.12%
GM growth 3Y22.19%
GM growth 5Y8.19%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GBX is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, GBX has less shares outstanding
- Compared to 5 years ago, GBX has less shares outstanding
- The debt/assets ratio for GBX has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- An Altman-Z score of 1.84 indicates that GBX is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- GBX has a Altman-Z score of 1.84. This is in the lower half of the industry: GBX underperforms 71.21% of its industry peers.
- GBX has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.78. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GBX would need 13.78 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- GBX's Debt to FCF ratio of 13.78 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GBX is outperformed by 62.12% of its industry peers.
- GBX has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.15. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.15, GBX is not doing good in the industry: 79.55% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.84 |
ROIC/WACC0.62
WACC8.41%
2.3 Liquidity
- GBX has a Current Ratio of 1.61. This is a normal value and indicates that GBX is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- The Current ratio of GBX (1.61) is worse than 68.94% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that GBX may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- GBX has a worse Quick ratio (0.91) than 68.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.61 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for GBX have decreased by -0.17% in the last year.
- GBX shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 26.18% yearly.
- GBX shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -14.99%.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.02% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-0.17%
EPS 3Y65.49%
EPS 5Y26.18%
EPS Q2Q%-33.72%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-14.99%
Revenue growth 3Y2.86%
Revenue growth 5Y3.02%
Sales Q2Q%-19.39%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, GBX will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -3.53% on average per year.
- The Revenue is expected to decrease by -1.85% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-35.07%
EPS Next 2Y-14.36%
EPS Next 3Y-3.53%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-9.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.12%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- GBX is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 8.84.
- 96.97% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GBX, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- GBX is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.30, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
- A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.95 indicates a reasonable valuation of GBX.
- 96.21% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GBX, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
- The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 24.32. GBX is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.84 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.95 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GBX is valued cheaper than 96.21% of the companies in the same industry.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GBX is valued cheaper than 89.39% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.47 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- A cheap valuation may be justified as GBX's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.53% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.34
EPS Next 2Y-14.36%
EPS Next 3Y-3.53%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- GBX has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.60%.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.98, GBX pays a better dividend. On top of this GBX pays more dividend than 91.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
- GBX's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of GBX has a limited annual growth rate of 3.42%.
- GBX has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
- GBX has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.42%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years10
5.3 Sustainability
- GBX pays out 16.68% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP16.68%
EPS Next 2Y-14.36%
EPS Next 3Y-3.53%
GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC / GBX FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for GBX stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GBX.
What is the valuation status for GBX stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC?
GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) is expected to decline by -35.07% in the next year.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for GBX stock?
The dividend rating of GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 16.68%.