GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GBX - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3936571013 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall GBX gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated GBX against 128 industry peers in the Machinery industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GBX while its profitability can be described as average. GBX is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GBX had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GBX had a positive cash flow from operations.
GBX had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In multiple years GBX reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GBX (5.26%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GBX has a Return On Equity of 15.22%. This is in the better half of the industry: GBX outperforms 72.66% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of GBX (7.83%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GBX is significantly below the industry average of 10.69%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (7.83%) for GBX is above the 3 year average (4.87%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.26% | ||
| ROE | 15.22% | ||
| ROIC | 7.83% |
ROA(3y)2.18%
ROA(5y)1.81%
ROE(3y)6.76%
ROE(5y)5.31%
ROIC(3y)4.87%
ROIC(5y)3.92%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 6.48%, GBX is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.03% of the companies in the same industry.
GBX's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 11.16%, GBX is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.03% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GBX has grown nicely.
GBX's Gross Margin of 18.53% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GBX is outperformed by 75.78% of its industry peers.
GBX's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.48% | ||
| GM | 18.53% |
OM growth 3Y56.84%
OM growth 5Y11.71%
PM growth 3Y34.43%
PM growth 5Y14.02%
GM growth 3Y5.95%
GM growth 5Y5.45%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GBX is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for GBX has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
GBX has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GBX has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.98 indicates that GBX is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of GBX (1.98) is worse than 67.97% of its industry peers.
GBX has a debt to FCF ratio of 23.13. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GBX would need 23.13 years to pay back of all of its debts.
GBX has a Debt to FCF ratio of 23.13. This is in the lower half of the industry: GBX underperforms 70.31% of its industry peers.
GBX has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.17. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.17, GBX is doing worse than 80.47% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 23.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.98 |
ROIC/WACC0.89
WACC8.83%
2.3 Liquidity
GBX has a Current Ratio of 1.44. This is a normal value and indicates that GBX is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.44, GBX is doing worse than 78.91% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.78 indicates that GBX may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GBX has a worse Quick ratio (0.78) than 78.13% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.44 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GBX shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 77.83%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, GBX shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 10.92% on average per year.
GBX shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 0.70%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.16% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)77.83%
EPS 3Y65.82%
EPS 5Y10.92%
EPS Q2Q%75.47%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.7%
Revenue growth 3Y26.57%
Revenue growth 5Y3.16%
Sales Q2Q%2.74%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GBX will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -2.27% on average per year.
GBX is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -5.41% yearly.
EPS Next Y5.57%
EPS Next 2Y-2.27%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-8.04%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.41%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 7.61, the valuation of GBX can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GBX is valued cheaply inside the industry as 93.75% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.30, GBX is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.31, the valuation of GBX can be described as reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GBX indicates a rather cheap valuation: GBX is cheaper than 86.72% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GBX is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.76, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.31 |
4.2 Price Multiples
97.66% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GBX, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GBX is valued a bit cheaper than 60.16% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 22.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.47 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
A cheap valuation may be justified as GBX's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.27% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.37
PEG (5Y)0.7
EPS Next 2Y-2.27%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.29%, GBX has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.81, GBX pays a better dividend. On top of this GBX pays more dividend than 87.50% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GBX's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.37.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.29% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GBX has a limited annual growth rate of 3.82%.
GBX has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GBX has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.82%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years10
5.3 Sustainability
17.04% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GBX. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.04%
EPS Next 2Y-2.27%
EPS Next 3YN/A
53.71
-1.75 (-3.16%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryMachinery
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners105.24%
Inst Owner Change-0.05%
Ins Owners1.8%
Ins Owner Change-2.24%
Market Cap1.69B
Analysts46.67
Price Target49.98 (-6.94%)
Short Float %5.34%
Short Ratio5.07
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.29% |
Yearly Dividend1.24
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.82%
DP17.04%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years10
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)36.87%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.23%
Max EPS beat(2)86.96%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)41.3%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.23%
Max EPS beat(4)86.96%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)24.58%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)23.35%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)23.32%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.92%
Min Revenue beat(2)-16.02%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.19%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1%
Min Revenue beat(4)-16.02%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.19%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.41%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.46%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.04%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-25.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-15.45%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-12.69%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-11.28%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-10.6%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.31 | ||
| P/S | 0.48 | ||
| P/FCF | 22.13 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.7 | ||
| P/B | 1.12 | ||
| P/tB | 1.25 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.47 |
EPS(TTM)7.06
EY13.14%
EPS(NY)4.75
Fwd EY8.84%
FCF(TTM)2.43
FCFY4.52%
OCF(TTM)11.43
OCFY21.29%
SpS112.57
BVpS47.91
TBVpS42.88
PEG (NY)1.37
PEG (5Y)0.7
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.26% | ||
| ROE | 15.22% | ||
| ROCE | 12.03% | ||
| ROIC | 7.83% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.53% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.73% | ||
| OM | 11.16% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.48% | ||
| GM | 18.53% | ||
| FCFM | 2.16% |
ROA(3y)2.18%
ROA(5y)1.81%
ROE(3y)6.76%
ROE(5y)5.31%
ROIC(3y)4.87%
ROIC(5y)3.92%
ROICexc(3y)5.53%
ROICexc(5y)4.74%
ROICexgc(3y)6.3%
ROICexgc(5y)5.45%
ROCE(3y)7.54%
ROCE(5y)6.11%
ROICexcg growth 3Y91.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.27%
ROICexc growth 3Y91.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y11.88%
OM growth 3Y56.84%
OM growth 5Y11.71%
PM growth 3Y34.43%
PM growth 5Y14.02%
GM growth 3Y5.95%
GM growth 5Y5.45%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.81
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 23.13 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.41 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 230.59% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 8% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.7 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 69.41% | ||
| Profit Quality | 33.29% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.44 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.98 |
F-Score7
WACC8.83%
ROIC/WACC0.89
Cap/Depr(3y)352.81%
Cap/Depr(5y)251.47%
Cap/Sales(3y)11.07%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.71%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)77.83%
EPS 3Y65.82%
EPS 5Y10.92%
EPS Q2Q%75.47%
EPS Next Y5.57%
EPS Next 2Y-2.27%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.7%
Revenue growth 3Y26.57%
Revenue growth 5Y3.16%
Sales Q2Q%2.74%
Revenue Next Year-8.04%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.41%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y54.58%
EBIT growth 3Y98.52%
EBIT growth 5Y15.24%
EBIT Next Year66.17%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y136.88%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y100.28%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A