GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GBX - US3936571013 - Common Stock
49.58 USD
-1.14 (-2.25%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to GBX. GBX was compared to 132 industry peers in the Machinery industry. While GBX is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GBX has a bad growth rate and is valued cheaply. GBX also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year GBX was profitable.
- GBX had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- Each year in the past 5 years GBX has been profitable.
- The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: GBX reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
- The Return On Assets of GBX (4.31%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- GBX has a Return On Equity of 12.01%. This is in the better half of the industry: GBX outperforms 69.70% of its industry peers.
- GBX has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.20%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GBX outperforms 42.42% of its industry peers.
- The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GBX is below the industry average of 10.24%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.31% | ||
| ROE | 12.01% | ||
| ROIC | 5.2% |
ROA(3y)3.34%
ROA(5y)2.44%
ROE(3y)9.98%
ROE(5y)7.22%
ROIC(3y)6.26%
ROIC(5y)4.32%
1.3 Margins
- GBX has a Profit Margin (6.03%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GBX has grown nicely.
- GBX's Operating Margin of 8.99% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GBX outperforms 52.27% of its industry peers.
- GBX's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- GBX's Gross Margin of 17.50% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GBX is outperformed by 78.03% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GBX has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 8.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.03% | ||
| GM | 17.5% |
OM growth 3Y57.6%
OM growth 5Y14.86%
PM growth 3Y58.73%
PM growth 5Y29.12%
GM growth 3Y22.19%
GM growth 5Y8.19%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), GBX is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, GBX has less shares outstanding
- GBX has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
- GBX has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
- GBX has an Altman-Z score of 1.84. This is not the best score and indicates that GBX is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- GBX has a Altman-Z score of 1.84. This is in the lower half of the industry: GBX underperforms 70.45% of its industry peers.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of GBX is 13.78, which is on the high side as it means it would take GBX, 13.78 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of GBX (13.78) is worse than 62.12% of its industry peers.
- GBX has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.15. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.15, GBX is not doing good in the industry: 79.55% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.84 |
ROIC/WACC0.63
WACC8.29%
2.3 Liquidity
- GBX has a Current Ratio of 1.61. This is a normal value and indicates that GBX is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- The Current ratio of GBX (1.61) is worse than 68.94% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.91 indicates that GBX may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- GBX has a worse Quick ratio (0.91) than 68.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.61 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.91 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- GBX shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -0.17%.
- GBX shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 26.18% yearly.
- Looking at the last year, GBX shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -14.99% in the last year.
- GBX shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 3.02% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-0.17%
EPS 3Y65.49%
EPS 5Y26.18%
EPS Q2Q%-33.72%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-14.99%
Revenue growth 3Y2.86%
Revenue growth 5Y3.02%
Sales Q2Q%-19.39%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -2.96% on average over the next years.
- GBX is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.85% yearly.
EPS Next Y-31.87%
EPS Next 2Y-15.3%
EPS Next 3Y-2.96%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-9.25%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.12%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.85%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- A Price/Earnings ratio of 8.67 indicates a reasonable valuation of GBX.
- 96.97% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GBX, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- GBX's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.25.
- GBX is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.97.
- 96.21% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GBX, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
- When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GBX to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.98), we can say GBX is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.67 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.97 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- GBX's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GBX is cheaper than 96.21% of the companies in the same industry.
- 89.39% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GBX, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.06 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.48 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- A cheap valuation may be justified as GBX's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.96% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.33
EPS Next 2Y-15.3%
EPS Next 3Y-2.96%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.52%, GBX has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
- GBX's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.01. GBX pays more dividend than 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, GBX pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.52% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of GBX has a limited annual growth rate of 3.42%.
- GBX has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
- GBX has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.42%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years10
5.3 Sustainability
- 16.68% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GBX. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP16.68%
EPS Next 2Y-15.3%
EPS Next 3Y-2.96%
GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC / GBX FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for GBX stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GBX.
What is the valuation status for GBX stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC?
GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) is expected to decline by -31.87% in the next year.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for GBX stock?
The dividend rating of GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 16.68%.