GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC (GBX) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GBX - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3936571013 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
GBX gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 129 industry peers in the Machinery industry. There are concerns on the financial health of GBX while its profitability can be described as average. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on GBX. GBX also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GBX was profitable.
GBX had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years GBX has always been profitable.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: GBX reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 4.30%, GBX perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.80% of the companies in the same industry.
GBX has a Return On Equity of 13.04%. This is in the better half of the industry: GBX outperforms 64.00% of its industry peers.
GBX's Return On Invested Capital of 8.72% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GBX outperforms 64.00% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GBX is significantly below the industry average of 11.00%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.72%) for GBX is above the 3 year average (4.87%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.3% | ||
| ROE | 13.04% | ||
| ROIC | 8.72% |
ROA(3y)2.18%
ROA(5y)1.81%
ROE(3y)6.76%
ROE(5y)5.31%
ROIC(3y)4.87%
ROIC(5y)3.92%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.10%, GBX is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.60% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GBX has grown nicely.
GBX has a Operating Margin of 9.91%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GBX outperforms 51.20% of its industry peers.
GBX's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 16.91%, GBX is not doing good in the industry: 80.00% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GBX has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.1% | ||
| GM | 16.91% |
OM growth 3Y56.84%
OM growth 5Y11.71%
PM growth 3Y34.43%
PM growth 5Y14.02%
GM growth 3Y5.95%
GM growth 5Y5.45%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GBX is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GBX has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, GBX has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for GBX is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.81, we must say that GBX is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
GBX has a Altman-Z score of 1.81. This is in the lower half of the industry: GBX underperforms 63.20% of its industry peers.
GBX has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.30. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GBX has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.30) than 84.80% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.81 |
ROIC/WACC0.93
WACC9.41%
2.3 Liquidity
GBX has a Current Ratio of 0.95. This is a bad value and indicates that GBX is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GBX (0.95) is worse than 92.80% of its industry peers.
GBX has a Quick Ratio of 0.95. This is a bad value and indicates that GBX is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GBX has a Quick ratio of 0.52. This is amonst the worse of the industry: GBX underperforms 92.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.95 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GBX shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 47.30%, which is quite impressive.
GBX shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 10.92% yearly.
The Revenue has decreased by -9.39% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, GBX shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 3.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)47.3%
EPS 3Y65.82%
EPS 5Y10.92%
EPS Q2Q%79.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.39%
Revenue growth 3Y26.57%
Revenue growth 5Y3.16%
Sales Q2Q%8.3%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GBX will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.57% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GBX will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.53% on average per year.
EPS Next Y20.92%
EPS Next 2Y11.57%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.86%
Revenue Next 2Y2.53%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 9.52, the valuation of GBX can be described as reasonable.
GBX's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GBX is cheaper than 92.80% of the companies in the same industry.
GBX is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.63, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.82, the valuation of GBX can be described as reasonable.
96.80% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GBX, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
GBX's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 22.68.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.52 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.82 |
4.2 Price Multiples
94.40% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GBX, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.94 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GBX's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of GBX may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.46
PEG (5Y)0.87
EPS Next 2Y11.57%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GBX has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.17%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
GBX's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.65. GBX pays more dividend than 87.20% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.27, GBX has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.17% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GBX has a limited annual growth rate of 3.82%.
GBX has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GBX has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.82%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years10
5.3 Sustainability
20.90% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GBX. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GBX is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP20.9%
EPS Next 2Y11.57%
EPS Next 3YN/A
54.55
-0.75 (-1.36%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryMachinery
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners105%
Inst Owner Change2.67%
Ins Owners1.83%
Ins Owner Change0.8%
Market Cap1.71B
Analysts74.29
Price Target66.98 (22.79%)
Short Float %7.3%
Short Ratio6.09
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.17% |
Yearly Dividend1.24
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.82%
DP20.9%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years10
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)45.73%
Min EPS beat(2)44.01%
Max EPS beat(2)47.44%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)25.59%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.94%
Max EPS beat(4)47.44%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)32.09%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)18.16%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)46.03%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.92%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.09%
Max Revenue beat(2)3.74%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.36%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.56%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.74%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)3.62%
Revenue beat(12)10
Avg Revenue beat(12)6.24%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.58%
PT rev (1m)6.49%
PT rev (3m)17.96%
EPS NQ rev (1m)44.13%
EPS NQ rev (3m)82.25%
EPS NY rev (1m)19.6%
EPS NY rev (3m)22.68%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)2.45%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)3.48%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.51%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.37%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.52 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.82 | ||
| P/S | 0.47 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 5.53 | ||
| P/B | 1.21 | ||
| P/tB | 1.37 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.94 |
EPS(TTM)5.73
EY10.5%
EPS(NY)6.19
Fwd EY11.34%
FCF(TTM)-2.55
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)9.86
OCFY18.07%
SpS115.17
BVpS45.05
TBVpS39.96
PEG (NY)0.46
PEG (5Y)0.87
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.3% | ||
| ROE | 13.04% | ||
| ROCE | 14.11% | ||
| ROIC | 8.72% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.7% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.36% | ||
| OM | 9.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.1% | ||
| GM | 16.91% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)2.18%
ROA(5y)1.81%
ROE(3y)6.76%
ROE(5y)5.31%
ROIC(3y)4.87%
ROIC(5y)3.92%
ROICexc(3y)5.53%
ROICexc(5y)4.74%
ROICexgc(3y)6.3%
ROICexgc(5y)5.45%
ROCE(3y)7.54%
ROCE(5y)6.11%
ROICexcg growth 3Y91.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.27%
ROICexc growth 3Y91.04%
ROICexc growth 5Y11.88%
OM growth 3Y56.84%
OM growth 5Y11.71%
PM growth 3Y34.43%
PM growth 5Y14.02%
GM growth 3Y5.95%
GM growth 5Y5.45%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.84
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.3 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.86 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 329.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 10.77% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.41 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 64.96% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.95 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.81 |
F-Score6
WACC9.41%
ROIC/WACC0.93
Cap/Depr(3y)352.81%
Cap/Depr(5y)251.47%
Cap/Sales(3y)11.07%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.71%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)47.3%
EPS 3Y65.82%
EPS 5Y10.92%
EPS Q2Q%79.17%
EPS Next Y20.92%
EPS Next 2Y11.57%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-9.39%
Revenue growth 3Y26.57%
Revenue growth 5Y3.16%
Sales Q2Q%8.3%
Revenue Next Year2.86%
Revenue Next 2Y2.53%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y40.56%
EBIT growth 3Y98.52%
EBIT growth 5Y15.24%
EBIT Next Year85.01%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y82.63%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y247.8%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A