FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:FWRD - Nasdaq - US3498531017 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall FWRD gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated FWRD against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While FWRD is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. FWRD is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
FWRD had positive earnings in the past year.
FWRD had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years FWRD has been profitable.
FWRD had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of -20.83%, FWRD is not doing good in the industry: 84.21% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -281.54%, FWRD is doing worse than 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.33%) than 63.16% of its industry peers.
FWRD had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 11.88%. This is in line with the industry average of 11.36%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.33%) for FWRD is well below the 3 year average (11.88%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that FWRD had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -20.83% | ||
| ROE | -281.54% | ||
| ROIC | 5.33% |
ROA(3y)10.3%
ROA(5y)8.36%
ROE(3y)22.22%
ROE(5y)17.17%
ROIC(3y)11.88%
ROIC(5y)10.36%
1.3 Margins
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of FWRD has grown nicely.
FWRD has a Operating Margin of 5.78%. This is in the better half of the industry: FWRD outperforms 68.42% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of FWRD has remained more or less at the same level.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 44.69%, FWRD is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.78% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 44.69% |
OM growth 3Y22.23%
OM growth 5Y0.63%
PM growth 3Y87.75%
PM growth 5Y8.66%
GM growth 3Y5.21%
GM growth 5Y2.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
FWRD has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, FWRD has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, FWRD has less shares outstanding
FWRD has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
FWRD has an Altman-Z score of 1.34. This is a bad value and indicates that FWRD is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.34, FWRD is doing worse than 63.16% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD has a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.55. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
FWRD has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (7.55) than 78.95% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.34 |
ROIC/WACC1.16
WACC4.59%
2.3 Liquidity
FWRD has a Current Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
FWRD has a Current ratio (1.21) which is in line with its industry peers.
FWRD has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.21, FWRD is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.89% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
FWRD shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -63.01%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 5.18% on average over the past years.
FWRD shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 86.33%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.80% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-63.01%
EPS 3Y69.35%
EPS 5Y5.18%
EPS Q2Q%-275.76%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)86.33%
Revenue growth 3Y2.59%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%58.65%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, FWRD will show a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -38.88% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, FWRD will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 18.77% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-118%
EPS Next 2Y-69.72%
EPS Next 3Y-38.88%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year51.78%
Revenue Next 2Y28.12%
Revenue Next 3Y18.77%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 15.35 indicates a correct valuation of FWRD.
FWRD's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. FWRD is cheaper than 63.16% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 29.63. FWRD is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 74.69, which means the current valuation is very expensive for FWRD.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of FWRD is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.68, FWRD is valued quite expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 74.69 |
4.2 Price Multiples
FWRD's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. FWRD is cheaper than 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.06 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
FWRD has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
FWRD's earnings are expected to decrease with -38.88% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.96
EPS Next 2Y-69.72%
EPS Next 3Y-38.88%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.48%, FWRD has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
In the last 3 months the price of FWRD has falen by -22.14%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.82, FWRD pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.29, FWRD is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of FWRD grows each year by 8.59%, which is quite nice.
FWRD has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
FWRD has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)8.59%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years18
5.3 Sustainability
FWRD has negative earnings and hence a negative payout ratio. The dividend may be in danger.
DP-0.97%
EPS Next 2Y-69.72%
EPS Next 3Y-38.88%
27.935
-2.41 (-7.93%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.54%
Inst Owner Change-1.84%
Ins Owners1.21%
Ins Owner Change1.96%
Market Cap808.72M
Analysts73.85
Price Target37.52 (34.31%)
Short Float %16.63%
Short Ratio6.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
Yearly Dividend0.96
Dividend Growth(5Y)8.59%
DP-0.97%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years18
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)484.21%
Min EPS beat(2)-944.44%
Max EPS beat(2)1912.87%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)119.83%
Min EPS beat(4)-944.44%
Max EPS beat(4)1912.87%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)52.81%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)38.39%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)20.2%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.89%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.94%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.85%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-8.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-18.39%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.85%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-8.34%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-5.3%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-3.57%
PT rev (1m)1.1%
PT rev (3m)-1.08%
EPS NQ rev (1m)44.8%
EPS NQ rev (3m)62.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-209.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.04%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 74.69 | ||
| P/S | 0.25 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 3.58 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.06 |
EPS(TTM)1.82
EY6.52%
EPS(NY)0.37
Fwd EY1.34%
FCF(TTM)-2.31
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-1.03
OCFYN/A
SpS110.96
BVpS7.81
TBVpS-52.62
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.96
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -20.83% | ||
| ROE | -281.54% | ||
| ROCE | 7.13% | ||
| ROIC | 5.33% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.63% | ||
| ROICexgc | 19.28% | ||
| OM | 5.78% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 44.69% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)10.3%
ROA(5y)8.36%
ROE(3y)22.22%
ROE(5y)17.17%
ROIC(3y)11.88%
ROIC(5y)10.36%
ROICexc(3y)12.41%
ROICexc(5y)10.9%
ROICexgc(3y)22.16%
ROICexgc(5y)19.6%
ROCE(3y)15.88%
ROCE(5y)13.85%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-26.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-27.85%
ROICexc growth 3Y-14.34%
ROICexc growth 5Y-20.73%
OM growth 3Y22.23%
OM growth 5Y0.63%
PM growth 3Y87.75%
PM growth 5Y8.66%
GM growth 3Y5.21%
GM growth 5Y2.34%
F-Score1
Asset Turnover1.05
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 30.94% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.16% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.34 |
F-Score1
WACC4.59%
ROIC/WACC1.16
Cap/Depr(3y)79.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)70.66%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.22%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.01%
Profit Quality(3y)93.81%
Profit Quality(5y)143.35%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-63.01%
EPS 3Y69.35%
EPS 5Y5.18%
EPS Q2Q%-275.76%
EPS Next Y-118%
EPS Next 2Y-69.72%
EPS Next 3Y-38.88%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)86.33%
Revenue growth 3Y2.59%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%58.65%
Revenue Next Year51.78%
Revenue Next 2Y28.12%
Revenue Next 3Y18.77%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y17.87%
EBIT growth 3Y25.39%
EBIT growth 5Y4.45%
EBIT Next Year87.36%
EBIT Next 3Y35.49%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-133.51%
FCF growth 3Y32.75%
FCF growth 5Y5.92%
OCF growth 1Y-112.35%
OCF growth 3Y28.9%
OCF growth 5Y3.52%