FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:FWRD - US34986A1043 - Common Stock
21.01 USD
-0.17 (-0.8%)
21.01 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10 to FWRD. FWRD was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While FWRD is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. While showing a medium growth rate, FWRD is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year FWRD has reported negative net income.
FWRD had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years FWRD 4 years were profitable.
FWRD had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
FWRD has a Return On Assets (-7.41%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -134.72%, FWRD is doing worse than 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD has a Return On Invested Capital (2.81%) which is in line with its industry peers.
FWRD had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.28%. This is below the industry average of 11.55%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (2.81%) for FWRD is well below the 3 year average (8.28%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that FWRD had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
1.3 Margins
The Operating Margin of FWRD (3.49%) is better than 69.57% of its industry peers.
FWRD's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
FWRD has a better Gross Margin (41.44%) than 86.96% of its industry peers.
FWRD's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% |
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so FWRD is still creating some value.
FWRD has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for FWRD has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, FWRD has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
FWRD has an Altman-Z score of 1.00. This is a bad value and indicates that FWRD is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
FWRD has a worse Altman-Z score (1.00) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of FWRD is 266.51, which is on the high side as it means it would take FWRD, 266.51 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
FWRD has a Debt to FCF ratio of 266.51. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: FWRD outperforms 56.52% of its industry peers.
FWRD has a Debt/Equity ratio of 11.27. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 11.27, FWRD is not doing good in the industry: 82.61% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1 |
ROIC/WACC0.38
WACC7.46%
2.3 Liquidity
FWRD has a Current Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.20, FWRD is not doing good in the industry: 78.26% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 1.20 indicates that FWRD should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.20, FWRD is doing worse than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for FWRD have decreased strongly by -349.45% in the last year.
FWRD shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 80.51%.
Measured over the past years, FWRD shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.28% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-349.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%70.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)80.51%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%5.21%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 29.36% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
FWRD is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.99% yearly.
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year0.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y3.99%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for FWRD. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 133.75, which means the current valuation is very expensive for FWRD.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of FWRD to the average of the S&P500 Index (34.59), we can say FWRD is valued expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 133.75 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of FWRD indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: FWRD is cheaper than 65.22% of the companies listed in the same industry.
FWRD's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 99.8 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.12 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
FWRD's earnings are expected to grow with 29.36% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
FWRD has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.48%.
In the last 3 months the price of FWRD has falen by -31.94%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
FWRD's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.54.
FWRD's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
5.2 History
FWRD has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
DP0%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
21.01
-0.17 (-0.8%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.87%
Inst Owner Change4.67%
Ins Owners1.54%
Ins Owner Change7.56%
Market Cap646.90M
Revenue(TTM)2.47B
Net Income(TTM)-204.50M
Analysts80
Price Target36.38 (73.16%)
Short Float %21.02%
Short Ratio5.82
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.41%
Min EPS beat(2)-96.96%
Max EPS beat(2)121.79%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-1782.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-6208.61%
Max EPS beat(4)121.79%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-714.67%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-480.16%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-357.44%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.58%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.39%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.04%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.04%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.48%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-6.81%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-5.05%
PT rev (1m)-1.83%
PT rev (3m)2.68%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-79.35%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-39.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.66%
EPS NY rev (3m)31.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.32%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.97%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 133.75 | ||
| P/S | 0.26 | ||
| P/FCF | 99.8 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.86 | ||
| P/B | 4.26 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.12 |
EPS(TTM)-4.54
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.16
Fwd EY0.75%
FCF(TTM)0.21
FCFY1%
OCF(TTM)1.32
OCFY6.31%
SpS81.87
BVpS4.93
TBVpS-43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROCE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.93% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.37% | ||
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% | ||
| FCFM | 0.26% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
ROICexc(3y)8.66%
ROICexc(5y)9.16%
ROICexgc(3y)15.75%
ROICexgc(5y)16.83%
ROCE(3y)10.95%
ROCE(5y)11.6%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-43.13%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-25.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-51.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y-32.28%
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.91
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 24.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.36% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 18.08% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1 |
F-Score3
WACC7.46%
ROIC/WACC0.38
Cap/Depr(3y)55.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)63.72%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.93%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.95%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-349.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%70.11%
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)80.51%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%5.21%
Revenue Next Year0.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y3.99%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-46.49%
EBIT growth 3Y-33.46%
EBIT growth 5Y-16.03%
EBIT Next Year86.1%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-97.26%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-85.21%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
FORWARD AIR CORP / FWRD FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for FORWARD AIR CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to FWRD.
What is the valuation status of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 2 / 10 to FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for FORWARD AIR CORP?
FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
How financially healthy is FORWARD AIR CORP?
The financial health rating of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) is 2 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) is expected to grow by 51.46% in the next year.