FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:FWRD - US34986A1043 - Common Stock
19.74 USD
-0.39 (-1.94%)
19.74 USD
0 (0%)
Overall FWRD gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. We evaluated FWRD against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. There are concerns on the financial health of FWRD while its profitability can be described as average. FWRD is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year FWRD has reported negative net income.
FWRD had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
FWRD had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Of the past 5 years FWRD 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of FWRD (-7.41%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
FWRD has a worse Return On Equity (-134.72%) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of FWRD (2.81%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
FWRD had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.28%. This is below the industry average of 11.55%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.28%) for FWRD is well above the current ROIC(2.81%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
1.3 Margins
FWRD's Operating Margin of 3.49% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. FWRD outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of FWRD has declined.
FWRD has a Gross Margin of 41.44%. This is amongst the best in the industry. FWRD outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
FWRD's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% |
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
FWRD has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for FWRD has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, FWRD has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, FWRD has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.99, we must say that FWRD is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 0.99, FWRD is doing worse than 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of FWRD is 266.51, which is on the high side as it means it would take FWRD, 266.51 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of FWRD (266.51) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 11.27 is on the high side and indicates that FWRD has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of FWRD (11.27) is worse than 82.61% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.99 |
ROIC/WACC0.38
WACC7.43%
2.3 Liquidity
FWRD has a Current Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.20, FWRD is doing worse than 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.20, FWRD is not doing good in the industry: 73.91% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for FWRD have decreased strongly by -349.45% in the last year.
The Revenue has grown by 80.51% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
Measured over the past years, FWRD shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.28% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-349.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%70.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)80.51%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%5.21%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 29.36% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
FWRD is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.99% yearly.
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year0.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y3.99%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for FWRD. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 125.67, which means the current valuation is very expensive for FWRD.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of FWRD indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: FWRD is cheaper than 60.87% of the companies listed in the same industry.
FWRD's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 34.08.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 125.67 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 93.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.93 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as FWRD's earnings are expected to grow with 29.36% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
FWRD has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.48%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
The stock price of FWRD dropped by -36.05% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.54, FWRD pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, FWRD is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
5.2 History
FWRD has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
DP0%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
19.74
-0.39 (-1.94%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.87%
Inst Owner Change4.67%
Ins Owners1.54%
Ins Owner Change7.56%
Market Cap607.79M
Revenue(TTM)2.47B
Net Income(TTM)-204.50M
Analysts80
Price Target36.38 (84.3%)
Short Float %19.43%
Short Ratio4.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.41%
Min EPS beat(2)-96.96%
Max EPS beat(2)121.79%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-1782.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-6208.61%
Max EPS beat(4)121.79%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-714.67%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-480.16%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-357.44%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.58%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.39%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.04%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.04%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.48%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-6.81%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-5.05%
PT rev (1m)-1.83%
PT rev (3m)2.68%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-79.35%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-39.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.66%
EPS NY rev (3m)31.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.32%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.97%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 125.67 | ||
| P/S | 0.24 | ||
| P/FCF | 93.77 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.9 | ||
| P/B | 4 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.93 |
EPS(TTM)-4.54
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.16
Fwd EY0.8%
FCF(TTM)0.21
FCFY1.07%
OCF(TTM)1.32
OCFY6.71%
SpS81.87
BVpS4.93
TBVpS-43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROCE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.93% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.37% | ||
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% | ||
| FCFM | 0.26% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
ROICexc(3y)8.66%
ROICexc(5y)9.16%
ROICexgc(3y)15.75%
ROICexgc(5y)16.83%
ROCE(3y)10.95%
ROCE(5y)11.6%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-43.13%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-25.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-51.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y-32.28%
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.91
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 24.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.36% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 18.08% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.99 |
F-Score3
WACC7.43%
ROIC/WACC0.38
Cap/Depr(3y)55.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)63.72%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.93%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.95%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-349.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%70.11%
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)80.51%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%5.21%
Revenue Next Year0.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y3.99%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-46.49%
EBIT growth 3Y-33.46%
EBIT growth 5Y-16.03%
EBIT Next Year86.1%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-97.26%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-85.21%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
FORWARD AIR CORP / FWRD FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for FORWARD AIR CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to FWRD.
What is the valuation status of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 2 / 10 to FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for FORWARD AIR CORP?
FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
How financially healthy is FORWARD AIR CORP?
The financial health rating of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) is 2 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) is expected to grow by 51.46% in the next year.