FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD)
US3498531017 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to FWRD. FWRD was compared to 20 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While FWRD is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. FWRD is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
FWRD had positive earnings in the past year.
FWRD had a negative operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years FWRD has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years FWRD had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of -20.84%, FWRD is doing worse than 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD has a Return On Equity of -281.68%. This is in the lower half of the industry: FWRD underperforms 78.95% of its industry peers.
FWRD has a Return On Invested Capital (5.35%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
FWRD had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 11.88%. This is in line with the industry average of 13.88%.
The 3 year average ROIC (11.88%) for FWRD is well above the current ROIC(5.35%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -20.84% | ||
| ROE | -281.68% | ||
| ROIC | 5.35% |
ROA(3y)10.3%
ROA(5y)8.36%
ROE(3y)22.22%
ROE(5y)17.17%
ROIC(3y)11.88%
ROIC(5y)10.36%
1.3 Margins
FWRD's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of FWRD (5.80%) is better than 68.42% of its industry peers.
FWRD's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of FWRD (44.69%) is better than 78.95% of its industry peers.
FWRD's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.8% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 44.69% |
OM growth 3Y22.23%
OM growth 5Y0.63%
PM growth 3Y87.75%
PM growth 5Y8.66%
GM growth 3Y5.21%
GM growth 5Y2.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), FWRD is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, FWRD has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, FWRD has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, FWRD has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.36, we must say that FWRD is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
FWRD's Altman-Z score of 1.36 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. FWRD is outperformed by 63.16% of its industry peers.
FWRD has a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.55. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
FWRD has a Debt to Equity ratio of 7.55. This is in the lower half of the industry: FWRD underperforms 78.95% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.36 |
ROIC/WACC0.81
WACC6.59%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.21 indicates that FWRD should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
FWRD has a Current ratio (1.21) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
FWRD has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
FWRD has a Quick ratio of 1.21. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: FWRD outperforms 47.37% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for FWRD have decreased strongly by -63.01% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 5.18% on average over the past years.
FWRD shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 86.33%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.80% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-63.01%
EPS 3Y69.35%
EPS 5Y5.18%
EPS Q2Q%-275.76%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)86.33%
Revenue growth 3Y2.59%
Revenue growth 5Y3.8%
Sales Q2Q%58.65%
3.2 Future
FWRD is expected to show a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -31.25% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, FWRD will show a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 20.77% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-83.5%
EPS Next 2Y-73.92%
EPS Next 3Y-31.25%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year51.84%
Revenue Next 2Y28.1%
Revenue Next 3Y20.77%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 19.58, the valuation of FWRD can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 63.16% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.96, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 128.42, the valuation of FWRD can be described as expensive.
FWRD's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.82. FWRD is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.58 | ||
| Fwd PE | 128.42 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
FWRD's earnings are expected to decrease with -31.25% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.78
EPS Next 2Y-73.92%
EPS Next 3Y-31.25%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
FWRD has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.66%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.65, FWRD pays a better dividend. On top of this FWRD pays more dividend than 89.47% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.23, FWRD has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% |
5.2 History
The dividend of FWRD is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 8.59%!
FWRD has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
FWRD has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)8.59%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years18
5.3 Sustainability
The earnings of FWRD are negative and hence is the payout ratio. FWRD will probably not be able to sustain this dividend level.
DP-0.97%
EPS Next 2Y-73.92%
EPS Next 3Y-31.25%
FORWARD AIR CORP
NASDAQ:FWRD (11/22/2024, 3:06:43 PM)
35.63
-0.05 (-0.14%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap986.95M
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
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EPS beat(16)
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Revenue beat(2)
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PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19.58 | ||
| Fwd PE | 128.42 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.78
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -20.84% | ||
| ROE | -281.68% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 5.8% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 44.69% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover1.05
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 7.55 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-63.01%
EPS 3Y69.35%
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y-83.5%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)86.33%
Revenue growth 3Y2.59%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y