FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:FWRD - US34986A1043 - Common Stock
21.01 USD
-0.17 (-0.8%)
21.01 USD
0 (0%)
FWRD gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. There are concerns on the financial health of FWRD while its profitability can be described as average. FWRD is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year FWRD has reported negative net income.
FWRD had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years FWRD 4 years were profitable.
FWRD had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
FWRD has a Return On Assets of -7.41%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: FWRD outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
FWRD has a Return On Equity of -134.72%. This is in the lower half of the industry: FWRD underperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of FWRD (2.81%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
FWRD had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.28%. This is below the industry average of 11.55%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (2.81%) for FWRD is well below the 3 year average (8.28%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that FWRD had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
1.3 Margins
FWRD has a better Operating Margin (3.49%) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
FWRD's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
FWRD has a better Gross Margin (41.44%) than 86.96% of its industry peers.
FWRD's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% |
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
FWRD has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for FWRD has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for FWRD has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for FWRD has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
FWRD has an Altman-Z score of 1.00. This is a bad value and indicates that FWRD is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.00, FWRD is doing worse than 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of FWRD is 266.51, which is on the high side as it means it would take FWRD, 266.51 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 266.51, FWRD is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 11.27 is on the high side and indicates that FWRD has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 11.27, FWRD is not doing good in the industry: 82.61% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1 |
ROIC/WACC0.38
WACC7.46%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.20 indicates that FWRD should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
FWRD's Current ratio of 1.20 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. FWRD is outperformed by 78.26% of its industry peers.
FWRD has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.20, FWRD is doing worse than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
FWRD shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -349.45%.
Looking at the last year, FWRD shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 80.51%.
Measured over the past years, FWRD shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.28% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-349.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%70.11%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)80.51%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%5.21%
3.2 Future
FWRD is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 29.36% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.99% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year0.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y3.99%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for FWRD. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 133.75, which means the current valuation is very expensive for FWRD.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.62, FWRD is valued quite expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 133.75 |
4.2 Price Multiples
FWRD's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. FWRD is cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 99.8 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates FWRD does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as FWRD's earnings are expected to grow with 29.36% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.48%, FWRD has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
In the last 3 months the price of FWRD has falen by -31.94%. A price decline artificially increases the dividend yield. It may be a sign investors do not expect the dividend to last.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.54, FWRD pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, FWRD is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
5.2 History
FWRD has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
DP0%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
21.01
-0.17 (-0.8%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners81.87%
Inst Owner Change4.67%
Ins Owners1.54%
Ins Owner Change7.56%
Market Cap646.90M
Revenue(TTM)2.47B
Net Income(TTM)-204.50M
Analysts80
Price Target36.38 (73.16%)
Short Float %21.02%
Short Ratio5.82
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.41%
Min EPS beat(2)-96.96%
Max EPS beat(2)121.79%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-1782.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-6208.61%
Max EPS beat(4)121.79%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-714.67%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-480.16%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-357.44%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.58%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.39%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.04%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.04%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.48%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-6.81%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-5.05%
PT rev (1m)-1.83%
PT rev (3m)2.68%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-79.35%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-39.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.66%
EPS NY rev (3m)31.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.32%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.97%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 133.75 | ||
| P/S | 0.26 | ||
| P/FCF | 99.8 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.86 | ||
| P/B | 4.26 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1 |
EPS(TTM)-4.54
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.16
Fwd EY0.75%
FCF(TTM)0.21
FCFY1%
OCF(TTM)1.32
OCFY6.31%
SpS81.87
BVpS4.93
TBVpS-43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROCE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.93% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.37% | ||
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% | ||
| FCFM | 0.26% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
ROICexc(3y)8.66%
ROICexc(5y)9.16%
ROICexgc(3y)15.75%
ROICexgc(5y)16.83%
ROCE(3y)10.95%
ROCE(5y)11.6%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-43.13%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-25.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-51.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y-32.28%
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.91
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 24.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.36% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 18.08% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1 |
F-Score3
WACC7.46%
ROIC/WACC0.38
Cap/Depr(3y)55.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)63.72%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.93%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.95%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-349.45%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%70.11%
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y44.24%
EPS Next 3Y29.36%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)80.51%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%5.21%
Revenue Next Year0.24%
Revenue Next 2Y3.24%
Revenue Next 3Y3.99%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-46.49%
EBIT growth 3Y-33.46%
EBIT growth 5Y-16.03%
EBIT Next Year86.1%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-97.26%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-85.21%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A
FORWARD AIR CORP / FWRD FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for FORWARD AIR CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 3 / 10 to FWRD.
What is the valuation status of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 2 / 10 to FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD). This can be considered as Overvalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for FORWARD AIR CORP?
FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
How financially healthy is FORWARD AIR CORP?
The financial health rating of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) is 2 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) is expected to grow by 51.46% in the next year.