FORWARD AIR CORP (FWRD) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NASDAQ:FWRD - US34986A1043 - Common Stock
26.84 USD
+0.11 (+0.41%)
26.84 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, FWRD scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. FWRD was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. There are concerns on the financial health of FWRD while its profitability can be described as average. FWRD does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year FWRD has reported negative net income.
In the past year FWRD had a positive cash flow from operations.
FWRD had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
FWRD had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
FWRD has a Return On Assets (-7.41%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of -134.72%, FWRD is doing worse than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of FWRD (2.81%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for FWRD is below the industry average of 12.53%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.28%) for FWRD is well above the current ROIC(2.81%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Operating Margin value of 3.49%, FWRD is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of FWRD has declined.
The Gross Margin of FWRD (41.44%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of FWRD has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% |
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), FWRD is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, FWRD has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for FWRD has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, FWRD has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.04, we must say that FWRD is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
FWRD's Altman-Z score of 1.04 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. FWRD is outperformed by 65.22% of its industry peers.
FWRD has a debt to FCF ratio of 266.51. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as FWRD would need 266.51 years to pay back of all of its debts.
FWRD has a Debt to FCF ratio (266.51) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
FWRD has a Debt/Equity ratio of 11.27. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 11.27, FWRD is not doing good in the industry: 73.91% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.04 |
ROIC/WACC0.37
WACC7.52%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.20 indicates that FWRD should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
FWRD has a Current ratio of 1.20. This is in the lower half of the industry: FWRD underperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
FWRD has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that FWRD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.20, FWRD is not doing good in the industry: 65.22% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
FWRD shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -226.59%.
FWRD shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -15.11%.
FWRD shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.28% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-226.59%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-98.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.11%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%-3.86%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, FWRD will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 46.97% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, FWRD will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.20% on average per year.
EPS Next Y39.06%
EPS Next 2Y46.97%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year1.21%
Revenue Next 2Y4.2%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
FWRD reported negative earnings for the last year, which makes the Price/Earnings Ratio negative.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 85.99, the valuation of FWRD can be described as expensive.
FWRD's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. FWRD is cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.88, FWRD is valued quite expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 85.99 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, FWRD is valued a bit cheaper than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
FWRD's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. FWRD is cheaper than 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 127.49 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.88 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates FWRD does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
FWRD's earnings are expected to grow with 46.97% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y46.97%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
FWRD has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.48%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.75, FWRD pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, FWRD is paying slightly less dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
5.2 History
FWRD has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
DP0%
EPS Next 2Y46.97%
EPS Next 3YN/A
26.84
+0.11 (+0.41%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.86%
Inst Owner Change-2.37%
Ins Owners1.57%
Ins Owner Change10.5%
Market Cap826.40M
Analysts80
Price Target37.06 (38.08%)
Short Float %17.52%
Short Ratio6.8
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.48% |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)12.41%
Min EPS beat(2)-96.96%
Max EPS beat(2)121.79%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-1782.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-6208.61%
Max EPS beat(4)121.79%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-714.67%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)-480.16%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-357.44%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.58%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.78%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.39%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.04%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.04%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.94%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.48%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-6.81%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-5.05%
PT rev (1m)4.6%
PT rev (3m)14.49%
EPS NQ rev (1m)22.03%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-141.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)13.7%
EPS NY rev (3m)-51.96%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.2%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-7.23%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.07%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | ||
| Fwd PE | 85.99 | ||
| P/S | 0.33 | ||
| P/FCF | 127.49 | ||
| P/OCF | 20.26 | ||
| P/B | 5.44 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.88 |
EPS(TTM)-5.76
EYN/A
EPS(NY)0.31
Fwd EY1.16%
FCF(TTM)0.21
FCFY0.78%
OCF(TTM)1.32
OCFY4.94%
SpS81.87
BVpS4.93
TBVpS-43
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | -7.41% | ||
| ROE | -134.72% | ||
| ROCE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 2.81% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.93% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.37% | ||
| OM | 3.49% | ||
| PM (TTM) | N/A | ||
| GM | 41.44% | ||
| FCFM | 0.26% |
ROA(3y)-2.87%
ROA(5y)0.6%
ROE(3y)-123.07%
ROE(5y)-69.45%
ROIC(3y)8.28%
ROIC(5y)8.77%
ROICexc(3y)8.66%
ROICexc(5y)9.16%
ROICexgc(3y)15.75%
ROICexgc(5y)16.83%
ROCE(3y)10.95%
ROCE(5y)11.6%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-43.13%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-25.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-51.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y-32.28%
OM growth 3Y-41.72%
OM growth 5Y-27.16%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-2.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.79%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.91
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 11.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 266.51 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 7.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 24.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.36% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 18.08% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.04 |
F-Score3
WACC7.52%
ROIC/WACC0.37
Cap/Depr(3y)55.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)63.72%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.93%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.95%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-226.59%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-98.23%
EPS Next Y39.06%
EPS Next 2Y46.97%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.11%
Revenue growth 3Y14.17%
Revenue growth 5Y15.28%
Sales Q2Q%-3.86%
Revenue Next Year1.21%
Revenue Next 2Y4.2%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-46.49%
EBIT growth 3Y-33.46%
EBIT growth 5Y-16.03%
EBIT Next Year87.73%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-97.26%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-85.21%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A