FORESTAR GROUP INC (FOR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:FOR - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3462321015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, FOR scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. FOR was compared to 65 industry peers in the Real Estate Management & Development industry. While FOR has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. FOR has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year FOR was profitable.
In the past year FOR has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years FOR has always been profitable.
In multiple years FOR reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 5.53%, FOR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.38% of the companies in the same industry.
FOR has a better Return On Equity (10.24%) than 87.69% of its industry peers.
FOR has a better Return On Invested Capital (6.00%) than 86.15% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for FOR is above the industry average of 5.47%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.53% | ||
| ROE | 10.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6% |
ROA(3y)7.18%
ROA(5y)6.06%
ROE(3y)13.29%
ROE(5y)11.54%
ROIC(3y)8.23%
ROIC(5y)7.03%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 11.45%, FOR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 83.08% of the companies in the same industry.
FOR's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
FOR has a Operating Margin of 14.12%. This is amongst the best in the industry. FOR outperforms 81.54% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of FOR has grown nicely.
FOR has a Gross Margin (23.34%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
FOR's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.45% | ||
| GM | 23.34% |
OM growth 3Y10.19%
OM growth 5Y13.62%
PM growth 3Y17.48%
PM growth 5Y11.83%
GM growth 3Y11.67%
GM growth 5Y9.47%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so FOR is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for FOR has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
FOR has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, FOR has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.54, we must say that FOR is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
FOR has a Altman-Z score (1.54) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
FOR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.53. This is a neutral value indicating FOR is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
FOR has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.53) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.54 |
ROIC/WACC0.8
WACC7.52%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.51 indicates that FOR may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
FOR has a Current ratio of 0.51. This is amonst the worse of the industry: FOR underperforms 86.15% of its industry peers.
FOR has a Quick Ratio of 0.51. This is a bad value and indicates that FOR is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
FOR has a worse Quick ratio (0.51) than 81.54% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.51 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
FOR shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -19.35%.
Measured over the past years, FOR shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 30.52% on average per year.
FOR shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -5.60%.
Measured over the past years, FOR shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 28.65% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-19.35%
EPS 3Y16.53%
EPS 5Y30.52%
EPS Q2Q%-28.09%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.6%
Revenue growth 3Y4.42%
Revenue growth 5Y28.65%
Sales Q2Q%5.15%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, FOR will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.42% on average per year.
FOR is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 10.10% yearly.
EPS Next Y-22.33%
EPS Next 2Y-7.28%
EPS Next 3Y6.42%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.3%
Revenue Next 2Y7.57%
Revenue Next 3Y10.1%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
Although the future Revenue growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
FOR is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 6.96.
FOR's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. FOR is cheaper than 95.38% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of FOR to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.30), we can say FOR is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.68, the valuation of FOR can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, FOR is valued cheaper than 98.46% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.76, FOR is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.96 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.68 |
4.2 Price Multiples
FOR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. FOR is cheaper than 90.77% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.75 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of FOR may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.23
EPS Next 2Y-7.28%
EPS Next 3Y6.42%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for FOR!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
22.62
-0.24 (-1.05%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryReal Estate Management & Development
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners36.36%
Inst Owner Change0.28%
Ins Owners0.49%
Ins Owner Change2.92%
Market Cap1.15B
Analysts85
Price Target28.56 (26.26%)
Short Float %4.23%
Short Ratio4.53
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-37.35%
Min EPS beat(2)-54.74%
Max EPS beat(2)-19.97%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-19.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-54.74%
Max EPS beat(4)21.02%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)14.31%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)20.62%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)22.86%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-16.52%
Min Revenue beat(2)-24.59%
Max Revenue beat(2)-8.45%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-10.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-24.59%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.37%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)4.31%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)4.44%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.84%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-18.45%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-13.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-14.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-5.82%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.96 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.68 | ||
| P/S | 0.78 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 0.7 | ||
| P/tB | 0.7 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.75 |
EPS(TTM)3.25
EY14.37%
EPS(NY)3.39
Fwd EY14.97%
FCF(TTM)-8.15
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-8.11
OCFYN/A
SpS28.95
BVpS32.37
TBVpS32.37
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.23
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.53% | ||
| ROE | 10.24% | ||
| ROCE | 7.97% | ||
| ROIC | 6% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.43% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.54% | ||
| OM | 14.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.45% | ||
| GM | 23.34% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)7.18%
ROA(5y)6.06%
ROE(3y)13.29%
ROE(5y)11.54%
ROIC(3y)8.23%
ROIC(5y)7.03%
ROICexc(3y)10.43%
ROICexc(5y)8.72%
ROICexgc(3y)10.52%
ROICexgc(5y)8.8%
ROCE(3y)10.93%
ROCE(5y)9.33%
ROICexcg growth 3Y8.89%
ROICexcg growth 5Y25.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y8.76%
ROICexc growth 5Y25.91%
OM growth 3Y10.19%
OM growth 5Y13.62%
PM growth 3Y17.48%
PM growth 5Y11.83%
GM growth 3Y11.67%
GM growth 5Y9.47%
F-Score2
Asset Turnover0.48
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.13 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 61.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.14% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.54 |
F-Score2
WACC7.52%
ROIC/WACC0.8
Cap/Depr(3y)82.1%
Cap/Depr(5y)63.56%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.16%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.13%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-19.35%
EPS 3Y16.53%
EPS 5Y30.52%
EPS Q2Q%-28.09%
EPS Next Y-22.33%
EPS Next 2Y-7.28%
EPS Next 3Y6.42%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.6%
Revenue growth 3Y4.42%
Revenue growth 5Y28.65%
Sales Q2Q%5.15%
Revenue Next Year6.3%
Revenue Next 2Y7.57%
Revenue Next 3Y10.1%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-15.94%
EBIT growth 3Y15.05%
EBIT growth 5Y46.17%
EBIT Next Year-9.49%
EBIT Next 3Y12.12%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-895.39%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-872.1%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A