FAIR ISAAC CORP (FICO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:FICO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3032501047 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to FICO. FICO was compared to 283 industry peers in the Software industry. FICO scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. FICO shows excellent growth, but is valued quite expensive already. These ratings could make FICO a good candidate for growth investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
FICO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year FICO had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years FICO has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years FICO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 31.89%, FICO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 98.23% of the companies in the same industry.
FICO's Return On Invested Capital of 43.60% is amongst the best of the industry. FICO outperforms 99.29% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for FICO is significantly above the industry average of 10.81%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (43.60%) for FICO is above the 3 year average (41.13%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 31.89% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 43.6% |
ROA(3y)27.67%
ROA(5y)24.55%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)41.13%
ROIC(5y)35.64%
1.3 Margins
FICO has a Profit Margin of 30.66%. This is amongst the best in the industry. FICO outperforms 93.99% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of FICO has grown nicely.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 42.91%, FICO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 98.23% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of FICO has grown nicely.
The Gross Margin of FICO (80.17%) is better than 80.21% of its industry peers.
FICO's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 42.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 30.66% | ||
| GM | 80.17% |
OM growth 3Y10.81%
OM growth 5Y14.35%
PM growth 3Y0.09%
PM growth 5Y12.51%
GM growth 3Y2.17%
GM growth 5Y2.36%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), FICO is creating value.
FICO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for FICO has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
FICO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 15.47 indicates that FICO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
FICO's Altman-Z score of 15.47 is amongst the best of the industry. FICO outperforms 92.23% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of FICO is 3.59, which is a good value as it means it would take FICO, 3.59 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 3.59, FICO is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.72% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.59 | ||
| Altman-Z | 15.47 |
ROIC/WACC3.15
WACC13.85%
2.3 Liquidity
FICO has a Current Ratio of 1.80. This is a normal value and indicates that FICO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
FICO's Current ratio of 1.80 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. FICO outperforms 55.12% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.80 indicates that FICO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of FICO (1.80) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.8 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.8 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
FICO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 22.01%, which is quite impressive.
FICO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 25.85% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 14.49% in the past year. This is quite good.
The Revenue has been growing by 8.16% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)22.01%
EPS 3Y21.92%
EPS 5Y25.85%
EPS Q2Q%20.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.49%
Revenue growth 3Y9.27%
Revenue growth 5Y8.16%
Sales Q2Q%15.16%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, FICO will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 22.74% on average per year.
FICO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 14.51% yearly.
EPS Next Y24.36%
EPS Next 2Y24.5%
EPS Next 3Y25.1%
EPS Next 5Y22.74%
Revenue Next Year15.86%
Revenue Next 2Y15.71%
Revenue Next 3Y16.2%
Revenue Next 5Y14.51%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 74.20, FICO can be considered very expensive at the moment.
FICO's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
FICO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 29.35.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 49.84, the valuation of FICO can be described as expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of FICO is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of FICO to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.10), we can say FICO is valued expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 74.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 49.84 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, FICO is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 64.66% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of FICO is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 66.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 60.57 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates FICO does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
FICO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
FICO's earnings are expected to grow with 25.10% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)3.05
PEG (5Y)2.87
EPS Next 2Y24.5%
EPS Next 3Y25.1%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
FICO does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
1834.13
+17.62 (+0.97%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorInformation Technology
GICS IndustryGroupSoftware & Services
GICS IndustrySoftware
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners88.67%
Inst Owner Change-2.17%
Ins Owners2.53%
Ins Owner Change2.99%
Market Cap44.79B
Analysts75
Price Target2131.68 (16.22%)
Short Float %2.5%
Short Ratio2.85
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly Dividend0
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-3.04%
Min EPS beat(2)-6.46%
Max EPS beat(2)0.38%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.37%
Min EPS beat(4)-6.46%
Max EPS beat(4)3.61%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.4%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.54%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)5.3%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.62%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.67%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.71%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.62%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.11%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.32%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.78%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.07%
PT rev (1m)-4.3%
PT rev (3m)-2.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.03%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-1.85%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.84%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.92%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.08%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.92%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.5%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.17%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 74.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 49.84 | ||
| P/S | 25.23 | ||
| P/FCF | 66.5 | ||
| P/OCF | 63.55 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 60.57 |
EPS(TTM)24.72
EY1.35%
EPS(NY)36.8
Fwd EY2.01%
FCF(TTM)27.58
FCFY1.5%
OCF(TTM)28.86
OCFY1.57%
SpS72.7
BVpS-46.61
TBVpS-78.37
PEG (NY)3.05
PEG (5Y)2.87
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 31.89% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 55.39% | ||
| ROIC | 43.6% | ||
| ROICexc | 50.35% | ||
| ROICexgc | 144.33% | ||
| OM | 42.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 30.66% | ||
| GM | 80.17% | ||
| FCFM | 37.93% |
ROA(3y)27.67%
ROA(5y)24.55%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)41.13%
ROIC(5y)35.64%
ROICexc(3y)46.48%
ROICexc(5y)41.08%
ROICexgc(3y)170.74%
ROICexgc(5y)438.55%
ROCE(3y)52.25%
ROCE(5y)45.27%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-54.87%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-33.18%
ROICexc growth 3Y6.74%
ROICexc growth 5Y15.31%
OM growth 3Y10.81%
OM growth 5Y14.35%
PM growth 3Y0.09%
PM growth 5Y12.51%
GM growth 3Y2.17%
GM growth 5Y2.36%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover1.04
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.59 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.1 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 215.72% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.77% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.81 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 90.79% | ||
| Profit Quality | 123.74% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.8 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.8 | ||
| Altman-Z | 15.47 |
F-Score8
WACC13.85%
ROIC/WACC3.15
Cap/Depr(3y)95.02%
Cap/Depr(5y)77.4%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.87%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.98%
Profit Quality(3y)120%
Profit Quality(5y)122.25%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)22.01%
EPS 3Y21.92%
EPS 5Y25.85%
EPS Q2Q%20.37%
EPS Next Y24.36%
EPS Next 2Y24.5%
EPS Next 3Y25.1%
EPS Next 5Y22.74%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.49%
Revenue growth 3Y9.27%
Revenue growth 5Y8.16%
Sales Q2Q%15.16%
Revenue Next Year15.86%
Revenue Next 2Y15.71%
Revenue Next 3Y16.2%
Revenue Next 5Y14.51%
EBIT growth 1Y16.51%
EBIT growth 3Y21.08%
EBIT growth 5Y23.68%
EBIT Next Year30.15%
EBIT Next 3Y24.99%
EBIT Next 5Y22.04%
FCF growth 1Y45.32%
FCF growth 3Y13.43%
FCF growth 5Y20.77%
OCF growth 1Y47.76%
OCF growth 3Y14.31%
OCF growth 5Y19.44%